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I thought they were bailing out Europe? Too confusing this is the most disordered circle-jerk ever...
Faber did state that he expected China to implode but would also be the first to recover. Looks like he maybe correct on that call...
europe is bailing itself out withe levered efsf so no longer need china for stocks to go up...and yeah the western world is decoupling so all good without china....
what a mess
LOL, the Chinese trolls are out this morning junking anyone who says anything remotely negative about China.
7.7% is way high, china's gdp growth cannot be sustainable under the current market environment. here's why:
1. 25-30% of chinese economy is made up of black and gray market
2. chinese outclasses enron when it comes to 'creative' accounting and cooking the books, US DoJ is launching investigations as we speak
3. chinese real estate bubble, the fav tool of financial criminals, is close to bursting which will bring down housing price by at least 1/3; land is not privately owned, but 'leased' to individuals for 200 years
4. china has the least self-reliant economy in the market, should globalization decrease china economy will crash harder compared to the US or eurozone
5. their govt has little tools to fight inflationary pressure
there are huge social and political risks surfacing unless the renmingbi replaces the greenback as the global reserve currency in the near future
There's also the withdrawal symptoms of being accustomed to 10%+ growth every year and suddenly having your GDP plummet as opposed to a country with mediocre growth seeing a further drop in GDP. The pain is felt more accutely in the country that is accustomed to the crack pipe.
Everything has its beauty but not everyone sees it.
Regime change follows?
Freedom for the 292 separate people with their own languages that are held together in China at the point of a bayonette.
Junk this Chinese trolls. FREEDOM!!!!
Slow motion train wreak...
With as many yearly double digit economic growth rates as they've had they must be 10, 11, 12 feet tall by now. lulz
The news is ugly all over. China, Europe inflation, German sales, U.S. banks leaving TARP early to avoid executive compensation restrictions. I am as certain as I've ever been that in the days and weeks ahead, these markets are going lower. Much lower.
By Bloomberg News Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Beijing home sales in the firstnine months of the year fell 19 percent and average pricesdropped 10 percent from a year earlier, according to SoufunHoldings Ltd., the country’s biggest real estate website owner. Shanghai home sales was down 5 percent while prices rose 14percent during the same time period, Soufun said in an e-mailedstatement.
No problem, it's not like these houses were extremely leveraged and are all underwater now.
Here is comparison chart between my feb 6th chart of DJIA and actual prices. After 8 months with mistakes in the middle, its for last 2 months within 0-5% of actual DJIA:
In original chart, the trend continues to go down with increasing speed.
Fear not, Birinyi is baaaaaack!
S&P’s 12% 3Q Loss May Signal 5.5% 4Q Rally: Birinyi
CDS on what underlying? PBC bonds? Regional bank bills?
Is this the 5Y like the previous article, or has the time horizon contracted?
I thought the PBC was a nett lender, not borrower? No? Couldn't they unwind their UST positions to avoid any kind of credit event on local issue?
Pfft, if China starts copping some problems they'll eventually just dump treasuries.
Hard landing for China but on what?
America dependent on Chinese output and treasury pruchases.
Hard landing for China on America's head.
Hard landing for China on America's head.
Everything is tied together. Hard landing for America on China's head too.
World War 3 in 3....2....1....
Do China CDS trade on a bonds & loans basis? It has virtually no hard-currency bond debt but I would guess billions of hard-currency loans issued by government-guaranteed entities that rank pari passu with senior bond debt. Still, I would rather buy CDS on Chinese property companies. The sovereign is sitting on trillions of dollars, default is not going to happen. If anything, I'd sell China CDS if they reach 350-400.
Good question. I found this:
Which is quite old, but indicates that China CDS underlying are NOT pari passu, but issued on a single asset class. Which would mean that the credit stress in 'China CDS' is for a particular issue of some debt instrument.
If Chinese CDS is not traded pari passu, then the above chart is not particularly informative, as the spreads may be widening on provincial bank bills, but not on PBC bonds (which, as you say, are almost non-existent).
Occaisionally, ZH has very detailed articles, but this is kinda fluffy.
One more thing: Keep posting Zeilschip, ZH needs a lot more people with a clue as the comments tend to get flooded with 'Silver bitchez!'
Ho, hard landing coming, we build more ghost cities.
Is all barbarian lies. Student squashing tank production is up 100%.
This is domestic issue, stay in own back yard Yankee dog.
You appologize now.
How to enter charts here in?
I have my little .china basket consiting of the five big names (btw look at the market cap of these bank fishs versus european ones, the chinese market cap is by far bigger...)
but I am not interested in fundamentals, since I do not understand a lot when bank analysts speak.
I simply check the chart, and this just took a new low...
short chinese banks and fasten your setbelt for a hard landing
What does "hard landing" mean?
We in China are deeply concerned by things like high urban housing price. But it is hard define risk approprietely. GDP number that brainless global wall street types worry about is least of our concern here in China.
For regular readers of ZH, you already know not to place trade for/against US GDP. For the same reason, we don't trade on China GDP. However, this is exactly what the China CDS trade all about. For those who think they will money by trading this trade, I refer them to JC Flowers.
There are problems in China. And Chinese stocks are falling. This is a good time to buy. You should not buy if real economy is suffering but stocks keep rally.
The lack of cheap energy is coming home to roost....collapse is nearing.
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