This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

China Export-Growth Officially Slowing: Trade Deficit Coming?

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Bloomberg headlines confirm the Chinese export-led growth dynamo is growing dimmer by the day:

  • CHINA'S `NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC' ABOUT EXPORTS IN 2012, CHEN SAYS
  • CHINA'S TRADE GROWTH MARGIN DECLINED IN DECEMBER, CHEN SAYS
  • CHINA EXPORTS 2 PERCENTAGE POINTS LOWER IN EACH MONTH OF 4Q
  • CHINA 2011 IMPORT GROWTH RATE 5 PCT POINTS HIGHER THAN EXPORTS
  • CHINESE COMMERCE MINISTER CHEN DEMING SPEAKS AT GENEVA BRIEFING

Translation: the next several Chinese monthly surplus reports will not be pretty, and even more importantly, The Chinese trade defict, as predicted by Albert Edwards some time ago, is finally coming (read here, here and here). Lastly, it means the CNY is about to reverse: expect Congress to go nuts once China undergoes several weeks in a row of Renminbi devaluation. The trade war that will follow should be quite epic.

 


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Thu, 12/15/2011 - 13:41 | Link to Comment junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Well good thing they have the Chinese consumer to keep the country and the rest of the world afloat.  All the American consumer companies are jumping ship over there as their source for profits...

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 14:02 | Link to Comment Confused
Confused's picture

China, the new consumer farm.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 14:10 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

lol...yeah, they will be doing the opposite on that "soon to be reserve" CNY.

China just slapped tariffs on our cars because the WTO ruled against them on their predatory trade.

Satellites also showed the Varyag out for sea trials...be a couple years before it's operational, but just in time eh?

Let's slap 50% tariffs on EVERYTHING from China.  Fuck WMT, fuck Mattell...fuck them all.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 14:29 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Yes, Trav wants us all to be poor.  By all means, shut off trade with China, it's not like they make 90% of what we use, and supply parts for most of the rest.  It's not like they have strategic resources that would take us a decade to develop.

Yeah, Trav, lets do that without a second (or first) thought!  We must defend ourselves from our high-IQ asian overlords!

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 15:02 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Actually China is quite toothless in real terms because the global downturn makes their internal situation quite difficult a la restive natives.

I think chinese Copper stockpiling and empty city mysteries are going to become quite clear quite soon.

Perhaps we are going to see a collective downfall of cities in general as we know them today.

Basically, solution to all three...War.

ori

/the-plan/

 

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:03 | Link to Comment Hard1
Hard1's picture

What happened to all those martians that  were also importing cheap chinese stuff?

http://www.economist.com/node/21538100

 

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 18:48 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Leadpoisoning....

 

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 15:38 | Link to Comment defencev
defencev's picture

There will be no reverse in CNY USD but there will be repeg to USD. It is, in fact, means that Chinese will need to buy more US

treasuries to recycle extra Dollars. That is only logical: they hardly interested in increasing their Euro reserves. The bottom line: it is USD positive. I personally welcome it. Besides, it makes all conversations about imminent Dollar collapse slightly premature to put it mildly.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 13:45 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The Chinese train wreck will be utterly spectacular. I can't wait to see how 1.2 Billion Chinese take the kick in the ass. I think the Chinese tariff on US autos for 'dumping' was the first real shot over the bow of the next great trade war.

Modern gunboat diplomacy baby. Only this time the Chinese won't just roll over and play dead.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 14:02 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

I'm tired of food prices going up.

Lower Yuan means cheaper edible iPods.,

just in time for munching in front of the cheaper big screen at the Superbowl party.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:01 | Link to Comment jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

Hmm perhaps the first shot was this?

 

 

China loses WTO appeal against U.S. tire tariffs

Sep 5, 2011

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/05/us-china-usa-tyres-idUSTRE7842EH20110905

 

"The United States imposed the 35 percent duties in September 2009 after the United Steelworkers union complained that surging Chinese imports were hurting U.S. producers."

"U.S. imports of Chinese tires fell by 23.6 percent in 2010 and by a further 6 percent in the first half of 2011, while U.S. tire imports overall grew by 20.2 percent and 9 percent respectively."

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 13:42 | Link to Comment Glasgow Gary
Glasgow Gary's picture

Who buys US Treasuries if China has alot less surplus USD to recycle (through Treasuries)?

GG

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 13:49 | Link to Comment RobD
RobD's picture

Everyone knows the answer to that question.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 14:43 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

The Federal Reserve has bought US Treasuries through a process called Quantitative Easing (QE), where the Primary Dealers buy the Treasuries from the Fed at auction, and then flip them right back to the Fed at a profit.

...the end of September 2011, the Fed owned about $516.7 billion more in U.S. Treasury securities than the Chinese owned.

 

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/fed-now-largest-owner-us-gov-t-debt-surpassing-china

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 13:54 | Link to Comment blu
blu's picture

Ben will print dollars for China to use to buy UST.

No, I'm not kidding.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 13:43 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

But will they sell their treasuries to get Western fiat to maintan their peg?

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 13:44 | Link to Comment jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

WHAT DOES IT TAKE TO GET MY ACCOUNT DELETED?

CALL TYLER A PRISSY FAGGOT WHO COULDN'T MAKE IT ON WALL ST, OR WHAT?

BEEN EMAILING ZH FOR WEEKS TO FIND OUT HOW TO DELETE THIS ACCOUNT AFTER 2 YEARS OF WASTING MY LIFE TRANSFIXED ON A FICTIONAL CONSTRUCT. BASICALLY A WASTE OF TIME

PLEASE DELETE MY ACCOUNT

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 13:48 | Link to Comment jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

HOW LONG ARE WE GOING TO CONTINUE FUELING THE FIRE BY FOCUSING OUR ENERGIES ON THE LIE? LOVE IT OR HATE IT, THEY STILL HAVE YOUR ATTENTION CAPTURED.

YOU ALL CAN ISSUE YOUR OWN PRIVATE CREDIT AND ZERO OUT ANY DEBTS. WAKE UP. IT IS IN THEIR OWN CODE BOOKS. ZERO HEDGE IS NOTHING BUT A FARCE KEEPING THE WOOL OVER YOUR EYES.

PLEASE DELETE MY ACCOUNT "TYLER"

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 15:36 | Link to Comment Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

Ritalin Check?

I'll bite, private credit? wtf is that, or do you mean chapter 7 or 11 (and not the store either..)

As far as tyler not making it on wall st. going private is a bad thing? the huge success this site is PLUS the trading knowledge these folks have, I'm sure they do quite well. AND they get to keep thier soul.

Due Diligence mang...

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 15:40 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

I think he means "take control of his commercial affairs", which many seem to have done.  When you access credit, it is YOUR credit, and through the UCC you can take control of it.  Debts are discharged, as they cannot be paid off in our debt based system.

There was one other here who was trying to do that.  Had posted it on the forum here.

pods

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 15:37 | Link to Comment linrom
linrom's picture

I also came to the conclusion that this site is nothing more than a platform to disseminate Hedge Fund propaganda.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 13:49 | Link to Comment Martial
Martial's picture

Here's a radical idea: just stay away from ZH. Problem solved.

 

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 13:58 | Link to Comment jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

No it's not radical. It's as stupid as all you who think you aren't part of the game when your every move is claimed and collateralized for the debt. I don't want to be recognized as part of the idiot brigade who believes they are free when you all get deeper and deeper every day.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 14:03 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

You claim every move is followed, but think if your password is deleted, then youre not part of 'the game'? Retard.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 14:10 | Link to Comment jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

I never said every move is followed, idiot. I said it's collateralized. You are the money, idiot. You are owned, a fucking ignorant slave with a tube shoved down your throat. I no longer wish to be identified with pathetic fuckwipes like yourself. You've been spreading the same 3 comments on this board for years now. Fuck off.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 14:25 | Link to Comment vxpatel
vxpatel's picture

chill bro....have you tried medical marijuana?

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 14:31 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

Well technically if you are issuing your own credit to cancel out your debts are you not playing the game?

You just took a seat at the big kids table.  That is all.

pods

edit:  Also, why not try and help others here with your information? I am assuming you went the way of the UCC that others (Kayman? maybe) that have undertook similar steps?

It is one thing to learn the techniques to discharge your debts, but why come here to gloat?  Why not just disappear and never post again?

Not taking shots, just want to know your mindset.

 

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 14:32 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

There it is.  Well played.  Nature makes keeps no promises regarding anyone's survival anyway, aside from the promise that yours will end.  In that vain one should always try to be on the other side of the debt trade, as it were.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 14:30 | Link to Comment sabra1
sabra1's picture

oBLAHma already has your IP address! please remember to post your "fema fun family days" photos, right here on ZH for all to enjoy!

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 14:54 | Link to Comment CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

I think your Mom bumped your caps lock button when she was cleaning your room.

Its off now, just a heads up n

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 14:08 | Link to Comment blu
blu's picture

ZH burnout. We've all been there.

I hit the wall six months ago. Lost my wife and home, quit my job and lived under a bridge for a month before I found Jesus. Then while working the loading dock at Salvation Army I got into an argument with a fellow loser about holding gold verses silver, and just like that I was back on the browser, aimed at ZH, white-knuckled.

Hooked. Again.

Once you taste the sweet, sweet paranoia and angst, feel the schadenfreude course thru your veins, and spend all night trolling for Keynesians until your eyes bleed, you can't go back.

Just roll with it. Do some heavy drugs and wild sex. You'll feel better on Monday. 

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 14:27 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

I think that many have gone through times where you get burnt out.  Most not nearly as severe as you.  

When people realize the totality of thier enslavement, they run around screaming from the rooftops that they have found the secret.  And they want to free anyone withing earshot.

It is coming to the realization that many do not, and further cannot contemplate what is going on that the depression sets in.

If you survive that and realize that you can only help you and your loved ones, as well as others who show a real interest in the knowledge that you are sharing then things will settle down.

And accepting that you are not in control is a big part of it.  Many events are WAY outside of your control.

pods

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 14:46 | Link to Comment blu
blu's picture

Wait. You mean that account sounded real?

Day-um. Maybe I should be one of those fictional writers who writes fiction. Oh wait, I already am.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 14:48 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

Fucker!  :)

Maybe you should have said "Living in a van down by the river?"

pods

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 14:50 | Link to Comment blu
blu's picture

Punk'd! You know I love you, man.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 15:07 | Link to Comment Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

+1000 Thanks Pods, well said. 

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 15:35 | Link to Comment Ferrari
Ferrari's picture

Fabulous! Best post I have read in a long time. A fine antidote to yesterday's congressional fiasco.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 13:44 | Link to Comment Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Currency wars beget trade wars which beget blow-things-up-anyway-you-can-and-kill-as-many-of-the-other-people-as-you-can-with-weapons-produced-by-the-same-defense-corporations wars.

In other words, same as it ever was.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 13:47 | Link to Comment sitenine
sitenine's picture

This is a matter of inevitability. The East can't export what the West can no longer afford.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 13:47 | Link to Comment Martial
Martial's picture

Does anyone else get the feeling 'they' are just trying to enjoy the holidays and kick the can until the new year?? I don't think we'll get far into 2012 without EVERYTHING that's been building to completely blow-out.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 13:48 | Link to Comment j0nx
j0nx's picture

If you call a one way salvo directed towards us a trade war then yeah it will be epic. No way we risk offending our overlords beyond a few token gestures.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 13:50 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

At this point it begins to make sense why China stockpiles cu, ag and au among other metals. Renminbi devaluation will actually be an absolute destablizing effect on the US and themselves to a lesser extent.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 13:52 | Link to Comment Iliketurtles
Iliketurtles's picture

what stocks will do well or bad if a trade war occurs? Trying to figure out if this helps or hurts Molycorp?

Any suggestions of how to invest when Chinese/US relations worsen??

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 13:53 | Link to Comment Dinho360
Dinho360's picture

I think they are okay with the yuan appreciating though, because they've said they want to focus on reducing their reliance on Western economies. Their goal is to make imports grow faster than exports, and to empower their domestic consumer with higher value yuan.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 13:54 | Link to Comment moskov
moskov's picture

China will no longer lend their money to the US consumers for funding their credit cards, mortgage, wars and so on.

Who should be buying the US bonds, American tax payers. If they can be asked to bait out 6 mega-banks who are selling fraud day by day, they sure can fund their own country with real hard earned cash.

 

Let China keeps the production, US keeps the hot money

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 14:30 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

That will piss off alot of APPLE users.....their religion will be crushed..

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 14:40 | Link to Comment moskov
moskov's picture

In China, Apple has also become a religion, the average price for a iphone is about 2000-4000 RMB which is made in China. US pay so much less and it's ridiculars for Chinese for paying more than they produce than the Americans.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 13:58 | Link to Comment moskov
moskov's picture

Plus. there's no point as Americans always complaining all the Higher living standard they have without paying by their export but useless dollars.

 

It's time for China to focus on its own domestic need and do the right thing. Every American knows there's no way the US will not default so does every Chinese knows there's no way to continue this horrible trend of over-consumption

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 13:59 | Link to Comment Oracle Jones
Oracle Jones's picture

So if China ends up in trade deficit, what countries other than Germany and oil states will remain in surplus? Anybody? Beuhler?

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 14:05 | Link to Comment moskov
moskov's picture

The surplus means nothing as all the derivatives being sold in the world far surpassed the entire world's GDP output.

 

They will only get inflation if they get meaningless surplus at this age of trade

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 14:34 | Link to Comment earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

and the u.s. and u.k,... the only ones to digitize will run out of bandwidth

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 14:25 | Link to Comment zonkie
zonkie's picture

Here is a theory -

1. China will intervene and bring down Remnibi further

2. IMF / Merkel are playing a game of chicken to make all of EU to submit. They will eventually let ECB print or even agree on Euro bonds

3. Bernanke is already following the lax monetary game - interest rates are promised to stay zero and QE3 may re-surface soon.  Actually there may be a co-ordinated quantitative easing - at the pretext of injecting liquidity - I say within next 4-5 weeks. 

After that Gold and Silver will surge - so I am now buying short term paper and long term physical. 

In any case no one can predict future, so staying with the "things" that have survived thousands of years - precious metals

 

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 14:48 | Link to Comment earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

"Paper Gold ETF's" & [Re] Hypothecation & GATA ___ 'Bullion Bulls Canada' - 12/14/11 by Jeff Neilson

"The Bankers' New Gold"

http://www.bullionbullscanada/index.php?option=com_content&views=article...

? : How much physical does Syria have @ owen owens :-))

ps. just follow 'oops' link ___ realeased today 12/15/2011

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 14:27 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

If they need cash to "support" their economy...I wonder.....I just wonder if they will sell their treasuries to raise some cash to help their people..just me thinking....

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 14:45 | Link to Comment r101958
r101958's picture

....and that is when, 'shock of all shocks', we will find that there are no more buyers.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 15:32 | Link to Comment swani
swani's picture

J Rose 1985

Why do you need 'Tyler' to delete your account? Does any one out there really care that you opened an account on ZH? Or do you just want atttention from us and are only able to get it in a negative way?

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 15:29 | Link to Comment swani
swani's picture

China, China, China. What does China do? A big part of her GDP comes from loans she has made to the insolvent Eurozone and the insolvent US of A. A depressed world on the verge of economic collapse will mean less exports and a slow down in over all growth, just when some of her people were getting spoiled wanting more than a bowl of rice a day, you know, mo' money mo' problems. She may even have to get into a war with her biggest customer and debtor over Iran.  It's just nice to know that we're not alone in sucking.  

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 15:34 | Link to Comment bahaar
bahaar's picture

To kick-start domestic consumption, wages will have to increase for Chinese workers.  But that'll make Chinese goods uncompetetive in the world market and therefore a non-starter.  So IMHO this is what China will do.  They'll kick out all the multi-nationals.  Once they kick them out, Chinese don't have to pay for the 'design or patent' and pay only for the labor.  Since they have all the factories, the whole world will have to buy from them.  Even if West refuses to buy, it matters not.  China can always sell to Asia and Africa.  Without research or design costs, Chinese products will be far cheaper than West's production cost (that is, if West re-builds it factories and trains its workers).  Asians especially will comply rather than confront the local bully (who controls source of all their rivers in Tibet).  So there, Wests' politicians, financiers and entrapreauners have sold their countries because of their greed.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 15:35 | Link to Comment Heyoka Bianco
Heyoka Bianco's picture

Everyone talking "physical" PMs is just another ITG. They think when the dystopia finally comes (never gonna happen), they will live like Somali warlords on their piles of silver and gold and their harems of young and supple and sexually compliant women (or boys, not trying to discriminate).

But the worst case scenario isn't Mad Max (in which no preparation is enough), but more like Brazil (the real one): most folks crammed into favelas, whilst business man take helicopters from rooftop to rooftop to avoid kidnapping. If you're not already one of the elite, they'll just take your shit and your life, if you protest too much.

By the way something, China has been throught this dozens of times already. They have much greater chance of rebounding from a downturn than whiny, lazy, overpriviliged and undercapable Americans, who have never been a fault for their failings, even in "the world's greatest democracy."

 

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 16:24 | Link to Comment calgal
calgal's picture

We no likey you cheep chinese crap no maw

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 17:06 | Link to Comment CTG_Sweden
CTG_Sweden's picture

 

Like I said earlier today:

 

China primarily exports labour intensive products to the US and Europe.

 

If China intends to increase wages they got to reduce the dependence on exporting labour intensive products. It is better for China to cut imports of goods associated with capital intensive production and produce such goods domestically instead. That enables China to raise wages.

 

It seems as if China prefers to cut imports related capital intensive production rather than safeguarding access to markets for “cheap junk” which requires labour intensive production and low wages.

 

Other reasons for China to reduce the dependence on exports to the US and Europe could be that they feel that large sovereign and household debts make it risky to depend on these markets and that reduced dependence on exports to the US and Europe reduces the risk for conflicts and political pressure from the US and Europe.

 

Furthermore, I don´t think that American and European politicians care if “cheap junk” will be produced in the US and Europe, respectively, rather than in China. I think that they feel that more low-paying, labour intensive jobs would be a blessing because that would enable the US and European labour markets to absorb the current and future oversupply of labour. The service sector can not grow indefinitely and provide an unlimited amount of low-paying jobs. So if they can add some manufacturing jobs related to “cheap junk” that would probably be great from their point of view. So I assume that this is some kind of win-win situation. China can raise wages and the US and Europe can hide oversupply of labour caused by political decisions more easily. 

 

Mon, 01/16/2012 - 03:00 | Link to Comment vladyguut
vladyguut's picture

Chinese growth is heading for the rocks.  Question is, how quickly can they revive their own consumer demand in the spectare of downward expectations?  Perhaps not so quickly:  http://ikaraam.info/journal/china-desperately-seeking-growth

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!