China Export-Growth Officially Slowing: Trade Deficit Coming?
Bloomberg headlines confirm the Chinese export-led growth dynamo is growing dimmer by the day:
- CHINA'S `NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC' ABOUT EXPORTS IN 2012, CHEN SAYS
- CHINA'S TRADE GROWTH MARGIN DECLINED IN DECEMBER, CHEN SAYS
- CHINA EXPORTS 2 PERCENTAGE POINTS LOWER IN EACH MONTH OF 4Q
- CHINA 2011 IMPORT GROWTH RATE 5 PCT POINTS HIGHER THAN EXPORTS
- CHINESE COMMERCE MINISTER CHEN DEMING SPEAKS AT GENEVA BRIEFING
Translation: the next several Chinese monthly surplus reports will not be pretty, and even more importantly, The Chinese trade defict, as predicted by Albert Edwards some time ago, is finally coming (read here, here and here). Lastly, it means the CNY is about to reverse: expect Congress to go nuts once China undergoes several weeks in a row of Renminbi devaluation. The trade war that will follow should be quite epic.