China GDP Misses Expectations By A Mile, Rises Only 8.1%, Slowest Pace Since September 2009

Tyler Durden's picture

The number the market has been waiting for with bated breath arrives:

  • CHINA 1Q GDP GROWS 8.1% ON YEAR, DOWN FROM 8.9% IN Q4; EXPECTED 8.4%, and whispered at 9.0%
  • CHINA 1Q RETAIL SALES RISE 14.8% VS EST. 14.8%    


And the worst: no RRR cut coming either it appears:


And so the rumormill, which was expecting some ridiculous GDP print of 9.0% based on a third-rate research report released overnight, despite China posting some epic budget surpluses in the past few months, is stuck dumping risk in this late hour. Everything selling off as China's GDP posts the biggest sequential drop since March 2009 and the lowest sequential GDP rise since September 2009.

Futures, which now shift to hoping for more liquid heroin, are down a whopping 4 pts. Because there is always some central planner happy to raise nominal asset prices by diluting everyone, and since the market still does not get the difference between nominal and real, all shall be well.

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transaccountin's picture

but the market was up 150 points today

the whisper number was 9%, why else did the material stocks rocket today? OH THATS RIGHT ITS A FUKING FRAUD

LetThemEatRand's picture

If I play the stock market, will someone bring me free drinks?

TruthInSunshine's picture

And 8.1% of the growth came from a 7% to 11% fudge factor.

Good stuff.


BRICs are going to save the world economy. China doesn't have an epic real estate crisis, an epic bad loan/banking crisis, and there isn't a literal push by government technocrats to pressure/coerce/force industry to keep churning out goods even at losses (to prevent a massive up-surge in unemployment, which is the one thing that would really bring a Jade Spring).

SMG's picture

Lying bastards. But that's how they've always ruled us. Hopefully something better is coming soon....

Spirit Of Truth's picture

Ummmm....has anyone been noticing the rising political instability in Beijing?  In recent days unprecedented protests in Chongqing were forcibly repressed (at least that's what's being reported):

Chongqing is where Bo Xilai....the recently defrocked high-ranking member of the from...

chinaguy's picture

Asian markets big green across all boards

DormRoom's picture

8.1% confirms the low/slow yOy electricity demand chart zerohedge posted a couple of weeks back.  HARD landing.  I'd love to see the copper re-hypothecation trade blow up.

LongSoupLine's picture

hmmm, copper trades go bad?...margin requirements on PM's were just lowered too.  Someone knows something's up perhaps?

true brain's picture

The stock market can't lose. China gdp goes down, more easing= market goes up.

China gdp goes up, economy is better= market goes up.

When does it blow up? Tired of waiting.

French Frog's picture

I fear that you'll have to wait a fair bit longer.

This market can, and will,  keep you waiting for the big 'blow up (down)' longer than most traders can remain solvent...

ihedgemyhedges's picture

Yes, and we will even comp your room!!!!

Sincerely, Heather and Celeste and Rachel and Tiffany and Summer.

PS Meant to say "Romp You" in your "Room"..............

StockHut's picture

Awesome comment LetThemEatRand.  Zerohedge needs to keep track of the best comments/quotes.  This one is up there

tempo's picture

The informed insiders ignore offfical govt stats as lies and focus on numbers which are difficult to falsify. For example, electrical usage and auto sold. The hard numbers show a far more serious situation. Combined with estimated 40% worthless debt held by the regional development banks from the 2008-2010 building boom which are largely empty shells.

surf0766's picture

Where can we see the electrical useage info? I remember seeing it on here before.

infiniti's picture

China's official energy agency hasn't updated their March numbers yet, but I did find this article relevant.

Max Fischer's picture



The World Bank had predicted that China GDP would rise 8.2%, off only 0.1%.  Looks fairly accurate to me. 

Furthermore, even though Chinese regional banks have - like everyone else - more bad debt than they want, the overly strict NDRC is beginning to break down capital restrictions, allowing foreign funded banks like JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank, Mitsui, Citi and HSBC bring more capital into the Chinese regional markets which will boost investments and loans. In the past few months, capital flows have reversed and is flowing back into China, marking an end to the persistent outflows of 2011.  Give the liquidity a little time to find its place, and you'll see China turn around in short order - just like the US.  

Max Fischer, Civis Mundi         


RoadKill's picture

I cant tell if you are being sarcastic ir not. Ive seen your blog and it seems REALLY bearish. But then on here your like MDB.

SeattleBruce's picture

Because the developed world is now expecting China to lead it out of the recessionary morass, 8.1 vs. consensus 8.4% certainly is an important miss.

chinaguy's picture

All stats out of China are nonsense - always have been and always will be. Asian markets all up over 1%

Bindar Dundat's picture

You creeps from Wall Street should get over yourselves. 8.0% plus is freakin' good and all you crying asses want to bad mouth the growth because it didn't meet your fuck head expectations and then you cry cause the market goes up. You are all so whacked!

jcaz's picture

Steve Liesman, you're up late this evening......

Cult_of_Reason's picture

This sounds more like a rant from Cramer ...


Cramer Says Stick with Natural Gas: "Natural Gas is in $7... $8 ... $9 ... pattern ..."


derek_vineyard's picture

I thought CNBC like it so much they used the endearing name Natty.

azzhatter's picture

Ben called and needed servicing so I had to go over to his place

DormRoom's picture

I remember reading that China needs atleast 8% growth to create jobs for the MILLIONS of new college graduates, and migrant workers flowing into the big coastal cities.


That is why 8% growth is so important.  Anything under could lead to severe social unrest as millions are jobless.  But if China eases, it risks high inflation, and more malinvestments.  If the Fed eases, China's inflation could runaway, and cause social unrest.


Like America, China has a choice:  deflation, and repress the 99%.  Or inflate and anger the 0.0001%.


Given what the Shanghai inner circle has done with populist, Bo Xilai, they will repress the 99%.

RoadKill's picture

Wow you are SO wrong. As a 0.01% I prefer inflation. My 2 & 20 is on nominal returns.

The poor should support debt forgiveness and deflation.

SeattleBruce's picture

"8.0% plus is freakin' good" - not when China is supposed to lead the world out of recession...anyhow, as others have pointed out, how much of the 8% is real?

candyman's picture

Who the F believes anything China has to say? Every number is cooked!

tickhound's picture

WHO THE F believes ANYTHING ANYONE has to say?  MARK TO MARKET?  whAT?  CPI?  Unemployment STATISTICS? 

You can play the WHO's SHIT STINKS LESS GAME.  But its dumb.  The global economy is on a precipice.  PERIOD.  How long, and to what numbers will we be ABLE TO TOLERATE, is the question. 

Will we lay down for $20 trillion debt with $125 trillion in unfunded liabilities?  Media propaganda on full throttle....

LikeClockwork's picture

I thought China's official line was7.5 Whose memory is faulty?

ACP's picture

So with inflation factored in, the economy shrank 10%?

urbanelf's picture

Now factor in lying.

superflyguy's picture

Let's forget for a moment that any govt statistic is garbage.

Say 8% YoY is true, it is still an exponential function. Which means, they still grew more than last year!

ZeroPower's picture

Textbook rumor day. Claims number comes out worse than expected, everyone and their mother jumps on board short, only to be absolutely CRUSHED today after the squeeze. 

Nice to see China not defying gravity after all, as expected by the hopium bulls.

surf0766's picture

Why would anyone place any amount of money on the news coming from a communist country? Are there still stupid people investing?

skepticCarl's picture

As opposed to the news coming from a reliable democratic country?

surf0766's picture

I didn't know there was one left?

Dr. Engali's picture

I was trying to think of some obscure democratic country to respond to your question , but I think you're right. There aren't any left.

SeattleBruce's picture

Is there a democratic region or US state left?

Ramboy's picture

Wow S&P futures down a whole 3 points.   The Great Global Liquidity Flood of 2012 is now in motion

jcaz's picture

Better than up the 15 it would have been on the Google "beat".....

surf0766's picture

Everyone write in vote Santelli for President. You the man Rick.

Hansel's picture

Vewy burrish!

Let me translate for the algobots (bullish):

binary 1100010111010111011001101100110100111100111101000

hex 62756c6c697368

octal 142165154154151163150

putaipan's picture

long rhinoceros horns bitchez !

surf0766's picture

Hold on.. I will order another round of hope for the EU. That will fix everything right up.

Ramboy's picture

Zerohedge = 1999 Motley Fools upside down 

Dr. Engali's picture

Better get to building some more empty cities.

Tsar Pointless's picture

Well, one must balance this number with the "gigantic" beat of Alcoa a few days ago.

Let's be realistic here.

I'm finding everything is coming up not only roses, but bullish, too.