China GDP Misses Expectations By A Mile, Rises Only 8.1%, Slowest Pace Since September 2009

Tyler Durden's picture


The number the market has been waiting for with bated breath arrives:

  • CHINA 1Q GDP GROWS 8.1% ON YEAR, DOWN FROM 8.9% IN Q4; EXPECTED 8.4%, and whispered at 9.0%
  • CHINA 1Q RETAIL SALES RISE 14.8% VS EST. 14.8%    


And the worst: no RRR cut coming either it appears:


And so the rumormill, which was expecting some ridiculous GDP print of 9.0% based on a third-rate research report released overnight, despite China posting some epic budget surpluses in the past few months, is stuck dumping risk in this late hour. Everything selling off as China's GDP posts the biggest sequential drop since March 2009 and the lowest sequential GDP rise since September 2009.

Futures, which now shift to hoping for more liquid heroin, are down a whopping 4 pts. Because there is always some central planner happy to raise nominal asset prices by diluting everyone, and since the market still does not get the difference between nominal and real, all shall be well.

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Thu, 04/12/2012 - 22:06 | 2340289 transaccountin
transaccountin's picture

but the market was up 150 points today

the whisper number was 9%, why else did the material stocks rocket today? OH THATS RIGHT ITS A FUKING FRAUD

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 22:09 | 2340308 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

If I play the stock market, will someone bring me free drinks?

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 22:31 | 2340366 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

And 8.1% of the growth came from a 7% to 11% fudge factor.

Good stuff.


BRICs are going to save the world economy. China doesn't have an epic real estate crisis, an epic bad loan/banking crisis, and there isn't a literal push by government technocrats to pressure/coerce/force industry to keep churning out goods even at losses (to prevent a massive up-surge in unemployment, which is the one thing that would really bring a Jade Spring).

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 22:40 | 2340402 SMG
SMG's picture

Lying bastards. But that's how they've always ruled us. Hopefully something better is coming soon....

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 03:49 | 2340895 Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

Ummmm....has anyone been noticing the rising political instability in Beijing?  In recent days unprecedented protests in Chongqing were forcibly repressed (at least that's what's being reported):

Chongqing is where Bo Xilai....the recently defrocked high-ranking member of the from...

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 03:56 | 2340897 chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

Asian markets big green across all boards

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 22:44 | 2340403 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

8.1% confirms the low/slow yOy electricity demand chart zerohedge posted a couple of weeks back.  HARD landing.  I'd love to see the copper re-hypothecation trade blow up.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 07:23 | 2341042 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

hmmm, copper trades go bad?...margin requirements on PM's were just lowered too.  Someone knows something's up perhaps?

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 22:38 | 2340395 true brain
true brain's picture

The stock market can't lose. China gdp goes down, more easing= market goes up.

China gdp goes up, economy is better= market goes up.

When does it blow up? Tired of waiting.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 02:42 | 2340856 French Frog
French Frog's picture

I fear that you'll have to wait a fair bit longer.

This market can, and will,  keep you waiting for the big 'blow up (down)' longer than most traders can remain solvent...

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 22:59 | 2340469 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Yes, and we will even comp your room!!!!

Sincerely, Heather and Celeste and Rachel and Tiffany and Summer.

PS Meant to say "Romp You" in your "Room"..............

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 23:51 | 2340614 StockHut
StockHut's picture

Awesome comment LetThemEatRand.  Zerohedge needs to keep track of the best comments/quotes.  This one is up there

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 22:10 | 2340311 tempo
tempo's picture

The informed insiders ignore offfical govt stats as lies and focus on numbers which are difficult to falsify. For example, electrical usage and auto sold. The hard numbers show a far more serious situation. Combined with estimated 40% worthless debt held by the regional development banks from the 2008-2010 building boom which are largely empty shells.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 22:14 | 2340319 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Where can we see the electrical useage info? I remember seeing it on here before.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 22:24 | 2340351 infiniti
infiniti's picture

China's official energy agency hasn't updated their March numbers yet, but I did find this article relevant.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 22:30 | 2340372 Seer
Seer's picture

Looks like they're peaking...

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 22:44 | 2340421 Max Fischer
Max Fischer's picture



The World Bank had predicted that China GDP would rise 8.2%, off only 0.1%.  Looks fairly accurate to me. 

Furthermore, even though Chinese regional banks have - like everyone else - more bad debt than they want, the overly strict NDRC is beginning to break down capital restrictions, allowing foreign funded banks like JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank, Mitsui, Citi and HSBC bring more capital into the Chinese regional markets which will boost investments and loans. In the past few months, capital flows have reversed and is flowing back into China, marking an end to the persistent outflows of 2011.  Give the liquidity a little time to find its place, and you'll see China turn around in short order - just like the US.  

Max Fischer, Civis Mundi         


Thu, 04/12/2012 - 23:14 | 2340517 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

I cant tell if you are being sarcastic ir not. Ive seen your blog and it seems REALLY bearish. But then on here your like MDB.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 08:15 | 2341129 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

Because the developed world is now expecting China to lead it out of the recessionary morass, 8.1 vs. consensus 8.4% certainly is an important miss.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 03:56 | 2340898 chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

All stats out of China are nonsense - always have been and always will be. Asian markets all up over 1%

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 22:24 | 2340356 Bindar Dundat
Bindar Dundat's picture

You creeps from Wall Street should get over yourselves. 8.0% plus is freakin' good and all you crying asses want to bad mouth the growth because it didn't meet your fuck head expectations and then you cry cause the market goes up. You are all so whacked!

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 22:32 | 2340374 jcaz
jcaz's picture

Steve Liesman, you're up late this evening......

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 22:48 | 2340416 Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

This sounds more like a rant from Cramer ...


Cramer Says Stick with Natural Gas: "Natural Gas is in $7... $8 ... $9 ... pattern ..."


Fri, 04/13/2012 - 00:11 | 2340665 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

I thought CNBC like it so much they used the endearing name Natty.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 07:25 | 2341046 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Ben called and needed servicing so I had to go over to his place

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 23:14 | 2340458 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

I remember reading that China needs atleast 8% growth to create jobs for the MILLIONS of new college graduates, and migrant workers flowing into the big coastal cities.


That is why 8% growth is so important.  Anything under could lead to severe social unrest as millions are jobless.  But if China eases, it risks high inflation, and more malinvestments.  If the Fed eases, China's inflation could runaway, and cause social unrest.


Like America, China has a choice:  deflation, and repress the 99%.  Or inflate and anger the 0.0001%.


Given what the Shanghai inner circle has done with populist, Bo Xilai, they will repress the 99%.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 23:16 | 2340522 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

Wow you are SO wrong. As a 0.01% I prefer inflation. My 2 & 20 is on nominal returns.

The poor should support debt forgiveness and deflation.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 08:18 | 2341135 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

"8.0% plus is freakin' good" - not when China is supposed to lead the world out of recession...anyhow, as others have pointed out, how much of the 8% is real?

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 22:40 | 2340400 candyman
candyman's picture

Who the F believes anything China has to say? Every number is cooked!

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 23:42 | 2340596 tickhound
tickhound's picture

WHO THE F believes ANYTHING ANYONE has to say?  MARK TO MARKET?  whAT?  CPI?  Unemployment STATISTICS? 

You can play the WHO's SHIT STINKS LESS GAME.  But its dumb.  The global economy is on a precipice.  PERIOD.  How long, and to what numbers will we be ABLE TO TOLERATE, is the question. 

Will we lay down for $20 trillion debt with $125 trillion in unfunded liabilities?  Media propaganda on full throttle....

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 00:44 | 2340727 LikeClockwork
LikeClockwork's picture

I thought China's official line was7.5 Whose memory is faulty?

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 22:05 | 2340292 ACP
ACP's picture

So with inflation factored in, the economy shrank 10%?

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 22:08 | 2340301 urbanelf
urbanelf's picture

Now factor in lying.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 10:03 | 2341409 superflyguy
superflyguy's picture

Let's forget for a moment that any govt statistic is garbage.

Say 8% YoY is true, it is still an exponential function. Which means, they still grew more than last year!

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 22:06 | 2340294 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Textbook rumor day. Claims number comes out worse than expected, everyone and their mother jumps on board short, only to be absolutely CRUSHED today after the squeeze. 

Nice to see China not defying gravity after all, as expected by the hopium bulls.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 22:07 | 2340296 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Why would anyone place any amount of money on the news coming from a communist country? Are there still stupid people investing?

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 22:14 | 2340322 skepticCarl
skepticCarl's picture

As opposed to the news coming from a reliable democratic country?

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 22:16 | 2340326 surf0766
surf0766's picture

I didn't know there was one left?

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 22:19 | 2340335 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I was trying to think of some obscure democratic country to respond to your question , but I think you're right. There aren't any left.

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 08:21 | 2341142 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

Is there a democratic region or US state left?

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 22:07 | 2340299 Ramboy
Ramboy's picture

Wow S&P futures down a whole 3 points.   The Great Global Liquidity Flood of 2012 is now in motion

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 22:25 | 2340362 jcaz
jcaz's picture

Better than up the 15 it would have been on the Google "beat".....

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 23:06 | 2340488 PersonalRespons...
PersonalResponsibility's picture

Just wait.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 22:09 | 2340305 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Everyone write in vote Santelli for President. You the man Rick.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 23:47 | 2340306 Hansel
Hansel's picture

Vewy burrish!

Let me translate for the algobots (bullish):

binary 1100010111010111011001101100110100111100111101000

hex 62756c6c697368

octal 142165154154151163150

Fri, 04/13/2012 - 01:42 | 2340788 putaipan
putaipan's picture

long rhinoceros horns bitchez !

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 22:11 | 2340312 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Hold on.. I will order another round of hope for the EU. That will fix everything right up.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 22:12 | 2340316 Ramboy
Ramboy's picture

Zerohedge = 1999 Motley Fools upside down 

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 22:16 | 2340325 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Better get to building some more empty cities.

Thu, 04/12/2012 - 22:16 | 2340328 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Well, one must balance this number with the "gigantic" beat of Alcoa a few days ago.

Let's be realistic here.

I'm finding everything is coming up not only roses, but bullish, too.

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