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China GDP Misses Expectations By A Mile, Rises Only 8.1%, Slowest Pace Since September 2009
The number the market has been waiting for with bated breath arrives:
- CHINA 1Q GDP GROWS 8.1% ON YEAR, DOWN FROM 8.9% IN Q4; EXPECTED 8.4%, and whispered at 9.0%
- CHINA'S MARCH INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT RISES 11.9% FROM YEAR EARLIER
- CHINA STATISTICS BUREAU SAYS PROBLEMS REMAIN IN THE ECONOMY
- CHINA 1Q RETAIL SALES RISE 14.8% VS EST. 14.8%
- NBS: CHINA STILL FACES UPWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION
- NBS: CHINA FACES DIFFICULTY STABILIZING EXPORTS
Visually:
And the worst: no RRR cut coming either it appears:
- NBS: CHINA STILL FACES UPWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION
And so the rumormill, which was expecting some ridiculous GDP print of 9.0% based on a third-rate research report released overnight, despite China posting some epic budget surpluses in the past few months, is stuck dumping risk in this late hour. Everything selling off as China's GDP posts the biggest sequential drop since March 2009 and the lowest sequential GDP rise since September 2009.
Futures, which now shift to hoping for more liquid heroin, are down a whopping 4 pts. Because there is always some central planner happy to raise nominal asset prices by diluting everyone, and since the market still does not get the difference between nominal and real, all shall be well.
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but the market was up 150 points today
the whisper number was 9%, why else did the material stocks rocket today? OH THATS RIGHT ITS A FUKING FRAUD
If I play the stock market, will someone bring me free drinks?
And 8.1% of the growth came from a 7% to 11% fudge factor.
Good stuff.
BRICs are going to save the world economy. China doesn't have an epic real estate crisis, an epic bad loan/banking crisis, and there isn't a literal push by government technocrats to pressure/coerce/force industry to keep churning out goods even at losses (to prevent a massive up-surge in unemployment, which is the one thing that would really bring a Jade Spring).
Lying bastards. But that's how they've always ruled us. Hopefully something better is coming soon....
Ummmm....has anyone been noticing the rising political instability in Beijing? In recent days unprecedented protests in Chongqing were forcibly repressed (at least that's what's being reported):
http://www.thepeoplesrepublicofchina.com/
Chongqing is where Bo Xilai....the recently defrocked high-ranking member of the regime....is from...
Asian markets big green across all boards
8.1% confirms the low/slow yOy electricity demand chart zerohedge posted a couple of weeks back. HARD landing. I'd love to see the copper re-hypothecation trade blow up.
hmmm, copper trades go bad?...margin requirements on PM's were just lowered too. Someone knows something's up perhaps?
The stock market can't lose. China gdp goes down, more easing= market goes up.
China gdp goes up, economy is better= market goes up.
When does it blow up? Tired of waiting.
I fear that you'll have to wait a fair bit longer.
This market can, and will, keep you waiting for the big 'blow up (down)' longer than most traders can remain solvent...
Yes, and we will even comp your room!!!!
Sincerely, Heather and Celeste and Rachel and Tiffany and Summer.
PS Meant to say "Romp You" in your "Room"..............
Awesome comment LetThemEatRand. Zerohedge needs to keep track of the best comments/quotes. This one is up there
The informed insiders ignore offfical govt stats as lies and focus on numbers which are difficult to falsify. For example, electrical usage and auto sold. The hard numbers show a far more serious situation. Combined with estimated 40% worthless debt held by the regional development banks from the 2008-2010 building boom which are largely empty shells.
Where can we see the electrical useage info? I remember seeing it on here before.
China's official energy agency hasn't updated their March numbers yet, but I did find this article relevant.
http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL3E8FC17R20120412
http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=ch&v=81
Looks like they're peaking...
The World Bank had predicted that China GDP would rise 8.2%, off only 0.1%. Looks fairly accurate to me.
Furthermore, even though Chinese regional banks have - like everyone else - more bad debt than they want, the overly strict NDRC is beginning to break down capital restrictions, allowing foreign funded banks like JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank, Mitsui, Citi and HSBC bring more capital into the Chinese regional markets which will boost investments and loans. In the past few months, capital flows have reversed and is flowing back into China, marking an end to the persistent outflows of 2011. Give the liquidity a little time to find its place, and you'll see China turn around in short order - just like the US.
Max Fischer, Civis Mundi
I cant tell if you are being sarcastic ir not. Ive seen your blog and it seems REALLY bearish. But then on here your like MDB.
Because the developed world is now expecting China to lead it out of the recessionary morass, 8.1 vs. consensus 8.4% certainly is an important miss.
All stats out of China are nonsense - always have been and always will be. Asian markets all up over 1%
You creeps from Wall Street should get over yourselves. 8.0% plus is freakin' good and all you crying asses want to bad mouth the growth because it didn't meet your fuck head expectations and then you cry cause the market goes up. You are all so whacked!
Steve Liesman, you're up late this evening......
This sounds more like a rant from Cramer ...
Cramer Says Stick with Natural Gas: "Natural Gas is in $7... $8 ... $9 ... pattern ..."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xdi1pTDj_cE
I thought CNBC like it so much they used the endearing name Natty.
Ben called and needed servicing so I had to go over to his place
I remember reading that China needs atleast 8% growth to create jobs for the MILLIONS of new college graduates, and migrant workers flowing into the big coastal cities.
That is why 8% growth is so important. Anything under could lead to severe social unrest as millions are jobless. But if China eases, it risks high inflation, and more malinvestments. If the Fed eases, China's inflation could runaway, and cause social unrest.
Like America, China has a choice: deflation, and repress the 99%. Or inflate and anger the 0.0001%.
Given what the Shanghai inner circle has done with populist, Bo Xilai, they will repress the 99%.
Wow you are SO wrong. As a 0.01% I prefer inflation. My 2 & 20 is on nominal returns.
The poor should support debt forgiveness and deflation.
"8.0% plus is freakin' good" - not when China is supposed to lead the world out of recession...anyhow, as others have pointed out, how much of the 8% is real?
Who the F believes anything China has to say? Every number is cooked!
WHO THE F believes ANYTHING ANYONE has to say? MARK TO MARKET? whAT? CPI? Unemployment STATISTICS?
You can play the WHO's SHIT STINKS LESS GAME. But its dumb. The global economy is on a precipice. PERIOD. How long, and to what numbers will we be ABLE TO TOLERATE, is the question.
Will we lay down for $20 trillion debt with $125 trillion in unfunded liabilities? Media propaganda on full throttle....
I thought China's official line was7.5 Whose memory is faulty?
So with inflation factored in, the economy shrank 10%?
Now factor in lying.
Let's forget for a moment that any govt statistic is garbage.
Say 8% YoY is true, it is still an exponential function. Which means, they still grew more than last year!
Textbook rumor day. Claims number comes out worse than expected, everyone and their mother jumps on board short, only to be absolutely CRUSHED today after the squeeze.
Nice to see China not defying gravity after all, as expected by the hopium bulls.
Why would anyone place any amount of money on the news coming from a communist country? Are there still stupid people investing?
As opposed to the news coming from a reliable democratic country?
I didn't know there was one left?
I was trying to think of some obscure democratic country to respond to your question , but I think you're right. There aren't any left.
Is there a democratic region or US state left?
Wow S&P futures down a whole 3 points. The Great Global Liquidity Flood of 2012 is now in motion
Better than up the 15 it would have been on the Google "beat".....
Just wait.
Everyone write in vote Santelli for President. You the man Rick.
Vewy burrish!
Let me translate for the algobots (bullish):
binary 1100010111010111011001101100110100111100111101000
hex 62756c6c697368
octal 142165154154151163150
long rhinoceros horns bitchez !
Hold on.. I will order another round of hope for the EU. That will fix everything right up.
Zerohedge = 1999 Motley Fools upside down
Better get to building some more empty cities.
Well, one must balance this number with the "gigantic" beat of Alcoa a few days ago.
Let's be realistic here.
I'm finding everything is coming up not only roses, but bullish, too.
"Let's be realistic here."
Assumption that they're measuring reality, so that we can be realistic?
WOOT!!!!
rumor was for 9%. China is trying to knock down it's inflation with an 'under' number.
Asia selling now should take out Bernanke's utterly pitiful attempt at creating market ranges. You f*cking a-wipe.
Correction back on. C'mon HFTs destroy those tech supports one more time and the flood gates will open.
If I have to hear that Ftard on CNBC say "Which side of the global growth story are you on" one more time I will kill myself.
Btw if you sold SMDD or TZA to me today THANKS!!!!
I dont even look at mine any more
I think we need to develop some sort of punishment for ZH-ers who still watch CNBC.
t just doesn't compute. Why do that to yourself, unless you're in to kinky stuff such as that? I mean - people do practice self-asphyxiation. Some perfect it, a la Michael Hutchence.
I don't know, and I am not judging.
If I tweet
BOB "which side of the global growth story are you on" must be Pissani'ing his pants right now
To Squak On The Street, you think they would air it?
Tsar Pointless said:
That's not really necessary. For those who believe it is a credible source of information, watching CNBC is self-punishing.
There actually are legitimate reasons to watch CNBC, although I doubt that any of their advertisers have figured this out yet. One reason to watch is that even propaganda mills can be sources of useful, albeit not credible, information. For instance, the careful observer can learn something from how various stories are being spun, as well as from which stories are being emphasized and which stories are being ignored.
Another reason to watch is for the pure comedic value. I really think CNBC could boost their ratings if they offered an optional secondary audio feed that included a laugh track. This could easily be done, as some cable channels already offer secondary audio program options, for example with spanish language dialog dubbed in.
With the seasonably adjusted warmer than normal winter and factoring in the year of the dragon economic growth actually came within a narrow margin of almost hitting just above the mid point range of lowest analyst numbers. ..... Bullish
that unfortunately sums it up. Ha
Bullish with a red flag in front waving from the winds of change.
But economic data is only relevant when it is good. 'Mk ?
Summary of all current statistical data: Data point formerly useful as information, but now generated out of whole cloth as propaganda (Exceeds|Meets|Disappoints). Markets (surge|muddle along|plummet) accordingly.
One of the central planning rocket doctors over there figured out a few quarters ago that if you miss the expectation you can buy your commodities cheaper and sell the I-gadget made from those commodities for the same price.
Ha... 8.1 % now. My ass, this is what they're telling us NOW. So what are the real numbers?
hang sang is on a tear on this news. somebody like it.
The market was up today on machine volume. In other words volume was lower for the last two days in a row.
Now back to that Chinese number...that is the doctored number.
The system is collapsing everyone is buying guns and CNBC says buy the bull and its not even Halloween yet.
Latest CNBC video: Welch: Obama's 'Enemies List' Rivals Nixon's but Nixon didn't have NDAA.
ha cramer got punked. they no nothing!
This is bad news. China keeps a lid on a restive population, in part, by having "full" employment. Full employment is kept up by growing exports.
Now, they may need to resort to a war to keep in power.
China has full employment because we employers are desperate for employees as the economy is booming.
When every article is a sky is falling article, the stories start to conflict each other or we're supposed to be stupid to connect the dots. Wasn't Reggie M. last week telling us that China was going to be a bigger GDP than USA if they weren't already. Doesn't slower growth work against that?
"When every article is a sky is falling article, the stories start to conflict each other"
Why quibble about how the sky is falling?
Oh quit with the bullish/bearish horse shit, longs and shorts alike are going to wake up behind the casino with a knot on their heads and a bloody smoking hole in the seat of their pants on the same day when this feak show rolls up the tent in the middle of the night.
Fully hedged counter party hokum, bullshit, they call that a mexican firing squad in a earlier time, everyone dies, no one gets a check. MF Global on a global scale. Oh, and "bitchez"
LOL!
It's funny because it's true.
And Singapore has an inflation problem? China fudges in all directions.
-- Singapore central bank unexpectedly tightens monetary policy slightly by raising the slope of the local dollar's trading band "slightly".
-- It also restores a narrower trading band, but doesn't change the level at which the band is centered.
-- Raises 2012 consumer price inflation estimate to 3.5%-4.5% from 2.5%-3.5%.
-- Singapore's economy expands 9.9% on quarter, annualized in first quarter, beats analyst estimates.
Moving from US to SG was the best thing I've done.
That said, inflation is a problem, one can see transport and food prices (already high enough) creep up every few months...
Dead Cat Bounce .. bitcheez
China has already landed really hard, as of February 2011 when they changed the food inflation formula, it's been more than 1 year already.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2011/02/china-changes-the-food-equation-but-inflation-remains-high.html
That was a desperation move. We're talking about the food of the people who spend 70% of their income to eat.
Rule of thumb for uprisings:
If one is hungry, one has got nothing to lose. Remember Arab Spring?
Since the formula change, one of the main chinese internet topics has been........wait.................."internet control". Does it ring a bell? US Senate?
Another Rule of Thumb for totalitarian countries:
In difficult times, any economic data should be multiplied by:
- 0.6 in USA
- 0.7 in Canada
- 0.4 in Europe
- 0.2 in China.
According to this rule of thumb, China Real GDP is about 2%.
Doesn't matter where you live anymore. No leaders tell the truth you dummies. cos baby boomer governments are satanic
Not only that.
Can anybody explain how could it be possible to calculate the activities of 1.3 billion people and come up with decimal percentage of growth? Impossible. They just make it up. It is practically impossible.
ekm said:
You measure the activities of 13 people, and then multiply by 100 million.
Yes, it's fiction, but due to incredibly complex mathematical modeling, we are expected to accept it as "virtual truth".
The PhD economists generate Statistical Heuristically Implied Trends and Comprehensive Recursive Assessment Parametrics (SHIT and CRAP) and expect us to swallow it.
ekm,
Nice one. Everyone I know who has a China company has growth doubling in size every year. Some people are struggling with just double digit growth. The only people losing money should not have been playing in the first place. Someone has to be food.
Ya gotta get out more, maybe travel to the countries you comment on.
And while you are at it buy some physical silver.
Thx for commenting.
The only way to grow in real terms is to sell = export. Who is importing from China so much to have 8.1% GDP increase? They do not spend themselves.
Travel the region. Everybody is importing. Locals are buying too. They have 1bil f-ing people. If only a tiny percentage of them bought something, it'd still be a lot.
I don't deny that people have to buy food.
Is that 8.1% GDP yoy?
"Everyone I know who has a China company has growth doubling in size every year."
1) antecdotal 'evidence' - some companies featured on China are growing dramatically - you don't say?!
2) It's another thing to see this growth internally, and across the entire Chinese internal economy. I agree with others, made up or almost totally nominal growth due to inflation and money supply ramps.
http://ausbullion.blogspot.ca/2012/04/game-on-spain-bans-cash-transactions.html
More proof that government can do anything and everything, like ban cash transactions above 2500 euro.
Does anybody see any problem any longer with just making up GDP numbers? Read the link. You will be convinced. Fresh news.
Is there where everyone acts astonished that the massive 'rally' today based of the presumption of a good number isn't reversed now that it's bullshit?
Golly, why would that be?
It'll be up 8 handles or so by the open with some huge jerk-off moves upward right about 3am.
You know...all magic like.
I think you are thinking too logically.
I order to understand what's happening, the following link is strongly recommended for study.
http://books.google.ca/books/about/Insanity.html?id=hnNPyIajbMsC&redir_esc=y
Made this chart of China's reserves last week & suspected things were slowing down there:
http://chart.ly/8cor8no
the chinese government must own a bunch of apple stock, knew the number and sold early today
The central banks of China and Australia signed a currency swap agreement yesterday that will allow RMB200 billion (A$30 billion) worth of local currencies to be exchanged between the two countries over three years.
The purpose of the agreement, according the People’s Bank of China, is to help strengthen financial cooperation between the two sides, boost bilateral trade and investment, and promote regional financial stability. “The agreement reflects the increasing opportunities available to settle trade between the two countries in Chinese renminbi and to make RMB-denominated investments,” the Reserve Bank of Australia said in a press release.
Earlier this year, China and Mongolia doubled the value of their bilateral currency swap agreement from RMB5 billion to RMB10 billion and Malaysia also increased its currency swap agreement with China from RMB80 billion to RMB180 billion. Also, in addition to its latest deal with Australia, China has signed new currency swap agreements this year with the United Arab Emirates worth RMB35 billion and with Turkey worth RMB10 billion.
Other countries that have signed bilateral currency swap agreements with China since 2009 include: Argentina (RMB150 billion), Belarus (RMB20 billion), Hong Kong (RMB400 billion), Iceland (RMB3.5 billion), Indonesia (RMB100 billion), Kazakhstan (RMB7 billion), New Zealand (RMB25 billion), Pakistan (RMB10 billion), Singapore (RMB150 billion), South Korea (RMB360 billion), Thailand (RMB70 billion), Turkey (RMB10 billion), and Uzbekistan (RMB700 million).
Furthermore, it is reported by the Financial Times that the central banks of England and Japan could soon be in line for currency swaps with China. This accelerated expansion of RMB-denominated currency swaps confirm China’s determination to make its tightly-controlled currency more internationally accepted.
Could you explain the structure of these agreements?
They look to me like Barter System using RMB as accounting unit, but nobody is accepting electronic RMB in exchange for Real Goods.
Internationalization of RMB = Exchange of RMB with Real Goods and keeping RMB as Reserves. Ain't happening anytime soon.
Americans love PF Changs
Chinese gold demand remains very strong as seen in the importation of 40 metric tonnes or nearly 40,000 kilos of gold bullion from Hong Kong alone in February.
Hong Kong’s gold exports to China in February were nearly 13 times higher than the 3,115 kilograms in the same month last year, the data shows.
Shipments were 72,617 kilograms in the first two months, compared with 10,564 kilograms a year ago or nearly a seven fold increase from the record levels seen last year.
China’s appetite for gold remains strong and Chinese demand alone is likely to put a floor under the gold market.
That's about a million and a half ounces.
Can not belive all the crybaby crap written about China by those with no f*ucking idea. China economy doing nicely, govt. with breaks on proprety can take off anytime.They are intentionally slowing their own economy to ensure what happened in Europe and the US doesn't happen in China.
Wake the f*ck up people, they make everything, they have all the cash, they are investing in infrastructure and commodities. They won and we the west haven't woken the f*ck up yet.
Oh yeah and buy physical silver.
"they make everything"
Interesting - haven't flown in a Chinese jet yet. Nor have I ridden in a Chinese mftd car. They probably are making more car parts these days...
Unfortunately, I have bought a lot of cheap Chinese crap though...
8% is still pretty good with the second largest economy. Bernanke dies to get that number.
Not when the whole world is depending on China to rescue it...
OMG! A 6 point drop in ES! What are we going to doooo???
Dust off Hank Paulson, put together a 'give me a blank check for bailouts' action plan on a cocktail napkin, and have him scare the bejeezus out of 401(k) bagholders in front of an academy award winning slate of Congress-actors (looking stressed and worried) who get credit for a TBTF Vampire Squid-JPM slam dunk assist.
Martial Law & Tanks In The Streets, bitchez!
...ah, the Great Wal Mart of China Falling Gong Show.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzpUPFp0xG8
china's sequential activity data should be ok, no hard landing.
http://www.cnhedge.com/
http://www.jinrongbaike.com/
So, mixed data? And still LOTS of inflation/nominal growth.
China slowdown fudge is to get the oil price down, Bernanke tried that about a week back and failed. So China throws the market a slowdown figure. Wow, insane central banks (The Fed and ECB) and a commie Chinese goverment are running the whole global market.
Well all that expensive oil isn't helping.
http://fromalpha2omega.podomatic.com/player/web/2012-04-06T04_54_21-07_00
I think we have to face the reality that at least 1/2 their GDP growth is pure inflation, 1/2 of this number is fabricated, and 1/2 this number is inaccurate due to reporting methodology. Leveraged bankers will run in their hamster wheels for a few hours. Enjoy the show.
Read the Art of War and undertand that it is best to underdeclare how well you are doing as per understated GDP figures ref Sole Proprieter businesses etc