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China Manufacturing Contracts As New Export Orders See Biggest 2 Month Drop Since Dec2008
Suddenly this morning's RRR cut doesn't feel quite so much like China doing Europe a favor. Chinese Manufacturing PMI printed at a lower-than-expectations 49, signaling its first contraction (<50) since Feb 2009. As if it was really ever so, as clearly concerns were growing since we had the Flash PMIs earlier in the month. Across the board, sub-indices were weak with New Orders and New Export Orders falling significantly as the latter remains below 50 and Inventories rose significantly. Notably New Export Orders have now fallen the most over two months since Dec 2008.
The overall index fell below 50 for the first time since Feb 2009.
And New Orders and New Export Orders continue to slide.
But the two-month drop in New Export Orders is very significant - as bad as entering the previous dramatic downturn.
Charts: Bloomberg
UPDATE: HSBC China Manufacturing PMI prints at 47.7, deteriorating at fastest rate (and lowest level) in 32 Months
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buy the f*cking dip...Bernanke will fix everything.
Reality sinking in already? All they got was a lousy 3 day rally. It's kind of looking like the end of July again.
Well that was good for a 7% pop on the China market....rally is speading world wide...lol (or not?!)
Question.... what's the quickest way for China to get rid of a couple hundred million surplus laborers?
Because I have a feeling, that's their next move.
export them to the african colonies... to produce food, among other things.
Someone needs to order more Chinese Food
Sandusky's favorite, Sum Yung Boi
Cum on sum yung guy
hmmm ... I thought it was BANG DA BOI ... but what do I know about Chinese food anyway?
no, no, no. AMERICAN MANUFACTURING WILL SAVE US!!!!!! Next month the Chicago PMI hits 9000. Hell it goes to one million!!!! When the stats are fantasy who cares.
It feels like playing fantasy football.
Lower than expectations?? That can't be right.. who the heck is in charge of that press release?
My expectations for this global economy are pretty low. It would be pretty hard to not beat them.
you know what this means ... Chinese central bank will now start to ease ... probably too late to stem the tide but it will be good for some kicks. Got copper?
I've talked to some Chinese exchange students. They say you need to own an apartment, if you want a girl to marry you. So since there's a lot more males to females in China, thus huge male competition over wombs, real estate has become a huge dating issue. I f you want to bone, you need to own an apartment.
Bang Dae Ho
i hear an iphone 4s can get the pussy over there
Dang! Now I know why that kid sold his kidney for an iPad! Pussy!
Probably cheaper to rent.
It's not really any different anywhere... and I also fail to see how anyone participating in such a regime can claim to see the situation as anything other than prostitution.
If they're not getting orders, then what is being bought with all this supposed Christmas shopping?
Transient Self-Gratification?
Wow, you mean that China WASN"T trying to help out the rest of the world with their rate cut?
Shocker.......
US and Europe aren't going to export themselves out of the problem, they will just stop importing. What will China do then?
print?
U.S. and Europe should tax China import's just as they do other's import's.
As a reminder in 2008 China's response to the "slowdown" (cough depression/revolution) was a stimulus equivalent to 20% of GDP (in the US that would have meant around a $4T stimulus).
Odd given this print that China doesn't have "want" to rescue the EU.
...and credit expansion that would make your eyes bleed.
China is crashing into a stagflation hell spiral. Frightening
Soft landing camp will increasingly have to start resorting to "IMPOSSIBRU!!!!"
The soft landing camp will soon be shitting BRICs.
Every country can get a temporary reprieve from domestic dissent by creating a strong foreign threat. China has a great deal of motive now to create a patriotic rallying event, most commonly this translates to a war. Sadly for the US this is not a card you get to play over and over and over again. We already had our 9/11 moment.
So that's why the 10 year fell at 8.
HSBC China November Final PMI 47.7 Vs October 51.0; Final PMI Down Vs Preliminary 48.0 [Dow Jones]
HOW YOU PAY!
http://www.gfmag.com/latestnews/latest-news-old.html?newsid=1.2092566E7
Hmmm...
"Thankfully, easing price pressures should provide some comfort to central bank officials and may open the scope for easing if activity tumbles more than expected in the coming months," Man said.
Input prices continued to rise in November, but output prices fell for the first time in four months, HSBC said.
There's a novel thought. China's production economy has to take desperate measures to crank the factories back up. They have to do that by competing with their currency. It wasn't so long ago that they wouldn't float their currency against other currencies. Now, they have to bend to keep civil unrest at bay. People without paychecks can't buy things.
http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/11/02/the-daily-climb-2/
ZH post a chart of Chinese real deposit rates which are negative! China is about to go into a world of hurt. They print more...FUBAR x10
Does the real economy really matter? Is the actual business of America business? (Or anywhere else in the world for that matter?) Do such things as sales, profits, demand, supply or competition mean a thing?
When an economy becomes sufficiently contrived and controlled the answer is NO. Politics will trump innovation, monetary policy will trump supply/demand and well-connected cronies will always starve out any 'competition'. The next steps in the evolution are inevitable: you'll be told what to buy, at what price and who to work for and for how much
"Does the real economy really matter? Is the actual business of America business? (Or anywhere else in the world for that matter?) Do such things as sales, profits, demand, supply or competition mean a thing?"
Only if you are a small business owner. The one with your own nut's on the line. They are flipping this bs system off, it's like trying to crawl through mudd 4' deep.
And they in the house wonder how to get un-employment down and wage growth up, lol.
Does this prompt the Chinese to some contrived conflict? Time will tell.
Confucius say: Contraction bullish, buy stocks!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5ESSEC
Lets make sure I get this. China which sells most of its shit to the US is not producing as much because consumption in the US is down, yet the US reported to the sheep today that the PMI was up. ahahahahahahahahah! Clown show!!
Chinese stocks surging tonight..
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-01/china-stocks-rally-most-in-5-we...
No fucking shit sherlock, this is a give me-no brainer rally, but how can anyone with even a grain of rationality trust it.
You can't imo, trader's all over feel like it is there first time in the ocean with 10' seas. Just a matter of time till you get smashed into a rock.
China needs to now take lessons from the U.S. on how to really fudge...Err, Uhhh, present economic data.
China can and will recover by lowering requirements. Bye bye "crisis".
We don't need no stinkin' manufacturing!
When you can just print money in order to manufacture profits, why should we worry about a slow-down in productive capacity? Right? Riiiight ...
China actually has more advantages in this systemic collapse than most of the countries.
1)It can produce most of the stuff for itself.
2)Being a very poor country, sagnificant drop in living standards won't impact it's stability very much.
3)Any inner resistance will be suppressed by China's zerg army.
China's regime greatest advantage is that they don't really have to reckon with the people at all.
But can they buy oil, coal, and uranium if they're broke, and currency nearly worthless? They can say its pegged to the dollar, and therefore dollar equivalent value, but what if people don't want it in exchange for raw materials? The only way full systemic collapse works for them is if commodity-currencies are in the toilet as well and industrial commodities crash spectacularly, and that should follow any second global trade collapse.
And they do have to deal with their people, they have warned and admitted recently that any economic collapse in China would lead to extreme outcomes that the rest of the world really should do everything possible to avoid. Beijing came right out and said that earlier this year, and used it as an excuse to not unpeg or raise the exhange rate.
Wow, I've been ignoring China for a few months, too many doom stories in 2010 and early 2011, and it all got old fast.
I shouldn't be surprised by this but I am.