China Manufacturing PMI At Lowest Since March 2009; Market Response 'Bad Is Good' So Far

Tyler Durden's picture


AUDJPY is getting smacked hard in this evening's admittedly thin trading given the US holiday. China's double-whammies of PMI data (both official and HSBC versions - with the latter revised lower from Flash to its lowest level since March 2009) and some weak Aussie retail sales data is weighing very heavily on the critical carry trade pair. S&P 500 futures traded down in line with AUDJPY from Friday's close but once the China PMI came as weak as it was so the 'Good is Bad', the PBoC have to do something crowd started buying and dragged ES up a few points. Juxtaposing these dismal macro data was a better than expected China Services PMI and Aussie manufacturing index - as the Schrodinger 'economy is good and bad' headlines continue to confound. For the 'bad-is-good' crowd who see stimulus as the solution, we offer two words 'Steel over-capacity'.


The last time HSBC and Official Manufacturing PMIs were sub-50 was in Nov 11 - right before the last coordinated central bank intervention (but energy and food prices were dramatically different then). This is the lowest HSBC PMI since March 2009...


S&P 500 futures fell in line with AUDJPY's weakness but have diverged since China PMI printed so weak - now the market reprices on further central-planning help implied by the dismal data...


With markets thin and no Treasury market 'police' to control the tom-foolery this evening, we can onlyt imagine where this ends but for now AUDJPY is our guide.


Perhaps this must-read story from Reuters will color those stimulus-hunters' opinion a little!!

China's banks are coming after the country's steel traders, hauling executives into court to chase down loans that some traders said they didn't initially need and can't now repay.


The heavy push to recover the loans is another sign of strain on China's financial system at a time when the country's leaders are contemplating another round of stimulus to boost the economy, and when banks are worried about bad debts piling up.


The battle between the banks and steel traders also exposes flaws in the 4 trillion ($629 billion) stimulus round in 2008, and offers a warning to those calling for pumping more money into the system. At that time, Chinese banks threw money at the steel trade - a crucial cog in supplying the country's massive construction and infrastructure growth.


But those steel loans, after offering a quick fix, became excessive, poorly managed, or a combination of the two. Government officials insisted more money was needed to prop up the industry. Steel executives said the money flow was too heavy, and they had to put the money to work in real estate and the stock market.


"After the financial crisis, when the government released its stimulus, banks begged us to borrow money we didn't need," Li Huanhan, the owner of Shanghai Shunze Steel Trading, told a judge at a recent hearing. "We had nothing to do with the money, so we turned to other investments, like real estate." 




Charts: Bloomberg

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Sun, 09/02/2012 - 23:03 | 2756993 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

Where is the evidence that accommodative monetary policy helps anyone other than the bankster?  Exactly when did this thought process become dogma?

Sun, 09/02/2012 - 23:07 | 2756997 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

China Manufacturing PMI going up! Double Plus Good, eh?

Sun, 09/02/2012 - 23:21 | 2757018 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Is this why I'm seeing all these Chinese dating site ads all of a sudden?

Mon, 09/03/2012 - 00:01 | 2757063 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

ECB to start unlimited bond buying.


The head of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has urged the European Central Bank to start buying bonds of crisis-hit countries again, to help bring down their borrowing costs.

José Ángel Gurría, secretary general of the Paris thinktank, said: "The ECB should start unlimited bond buying, the sooner the better. It has to be a credible signal … to say: we have members of the family that are doing the right thing, we will not let you push them around."

Mon, 09/03/2012 - 00:29 | 2757087 chump666
chump666's picture

riot you stupid Euroepans, riot!


Mon, 09/03/2012 - 01:51 | 2757127 chump666
chump666's picture

from wires:

-- Weidmann departure would make life easier for ECB

-- Opposition of German hard liners will grow as economy slows

- Still uncertainty of whether ECB bond buying will work

-- EUR may be driven by diversification flows, not policy

not from wires:

-- The ECB should be burnt to the ground.

Mon, 09/03/2012 - 02:09 | 2757139 Michael
Michael's picture

Remember this? I use this as is my desktop image. Right click the image and save it to your pictures folder.

This is where the G in the Freemasonry Square & Compass symbol originated, and stands for Green Dragon Tavern Lodge where the Boston Tea Party was planned.

Top story on Huffington Post;

U.S. Companies Conduct Fire Drills In Case Greece Exits Euro

Mon, 09/03/2012 - 03:20 | 2757146 Michael
Michael's picture

Highly recommended, if you can bring yourself to watching it.



It's a shame!

Because we as USA Constitutional Americans abiding by it, could have paved a much better destiny for ourselves if we were allowed to do so, than the one prescribed for us by our owners.

Mon, 09/03/2012 - 04:33 | 2757227 Michael
Michael's picture

Note: Copy this text and spread it around before ZH handlers delete it.

It's sort of like the secret society secrets that are not. Israel has more like 300 nukes according to President Jimmy Carter, but 30 would do it. There are no secrets because of the internet, but those who believe there are would like you to believe so, so that they can think to themselves they have an edge on you.

It's not countries starting shit, it's individual human people with superiority complexes.

I really don't give a shit about human interest stories and peoples personal problems. Go sell your pity party some place else, we're all stocked up here.
I should copyright this statement and sell it to a movie script writer.

I'm thankful the country of Israel was created. It forces the A-Jews to live amongst each other and try to get along with each other the way they are.

Yes we know the A-Jews now own almost everything and control the world, congratulations to them.
See also; Defamation

It's just a character flaw the Byzantine Empire had pegged.
"Jews" will become irrelevant, so I don't bother myself thinking about this flaw in humanity anymore. I just revel in the fact that they are over-represented on Wall Street and in the current financial structure, and most people working in the financial industry will be unemployed Jews as their monetary system comes crashing down on them. They should have diversified their skill set.

I'm laughing at the superior intelect.

The Dead Stream Media will no longer Prescribe their Version of Reality to the Sheeple Anymore!

Got That?

The Jewtub MSM TV and their twisted other media are going to tell you what to think about the Clint Eastwood speech, and not discuss any of the topics and actual words he used in that speech.
All the words in Clint Eastwood's speech were truth. Tell me which words and phrases were lies?
The Jewtube MSM TV and their minions just want more military industrial complex taxpayer money spending.

We call it Jewtube TV because there are all these Ashkenazi Jews on it because of nepotism.
I'm getting sick of looking at all those Ashkenazi Jews on MSM TV all day.

That's why I just thank The Creator every day for the complete and total worldwide economic collapse that is a 100% mathematical certainty. It's the only thing that will solve most of the USA's problems.

Mon, 09/03/2012 - 01:32 | 2757118 Freddie
Freddie's picture

The stupid leftist Guardian still pimping the Euro and EU-SSR.    Friends of arseholes like Neil Kinnock and his Danish daughter in law - all feeding at the EU-SSR trough like pigs.

Mon, 09/03/2012 - 02:53 | 2757154 fourchan
fourchan's picture

HSBC China Manufacturing PMI™ Manufacturing sector operating conditions worsened at the sharpest rate in 41 months tick tick boom!

Mon, 09/03/2012 - 00:06 | 2757067 dolph9
dolph9's picture

Sometime during the last 30 years the entire world sold itself to the London and NYC Hebrew boys.

Our commeupance is due.

Mon, 09/03/2012 - 04:54 | 2757254 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture


Costs of the Vietnam War and increased accelerated inflation

 US for the first time in 20th century rana trade DEFICIT

 Nixon Shock cancelled convertibility of US Dollar to gold and ended Bretton Woods system making dollar a fiat currency


Mon, 09/03/2012 - 00:58 | 2757102 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

The Chinese economy continues to slow down.

Sun, 09/02/2012 - 23:03 | 2756994 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

In a response to a comment at his website -

Michael [Pettis] August 31, 2012 at 21:47

"...manufacturing overcapacity is a huge problem, and of course the global crisis jut made it a lot worse, but most studies I know suggest that SOEs in general, were it not for the direct and indirect subsidies they receive, would lose $5-8 dollars for every dollar they state as profit."

Is that bad? It sounds bad.

That's bad, huh?

Like. Not. Good.

Sun, 09/02/2012 - 23:08 | 2756999 dexter bland
dexter bland's picture

Other PMIs out today South Korea 47.5 and Taiwan 46.1, both contracting. All recent Japan data has been dismal.

Looks like the mercantilist export-focussed model is finished. No way forward for Asia unless they can build domestic demand to match this absurd surplus of supply. But that will take a shift in cultural values, not going to happen overnight.

Sun, 09/02/2012 - 23:19 | 2757009 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Cultural values are thrown out the window in a snapsecond when you are suddenly staring str8 into the barrel of a gun.

Mon, 09/03/2012 - 03:00 | 2757159 mendigo
mendigo's picture

Perhaps there is such a thing as too much of a good/bad thing.

Sun, 09/02/2012 - 23:08 | 2756998 chump666
chump666's picture

September is going to be a brutal month.

Sun, 09/02/2012 - 23:54 | 2757053 knukles
knukles's picture

Has it not been, historically?


(cough:  pssst, yes, its usually been miserable)

Mon, 09/03/2012 - 00:02 | 2757064 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

You didn't build that algo.

Mon, 09/03/2012 - 00:36 | 2757090 chump666
chump666's picture

kill the machines

Sun, 09/02/2012 - 23:14 | 2757002 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Also not terribly good(unless bad is good which means this isn't terrible):

Shoddy Investment Props Up GDP

Global Times
Published on August 27, 2012 22:20


Three people were killed and five were injured when an eight-lane bridge collapsed Friday in Harbin, Heilongjiang Province. The bridge, which had been in operation only nine months, has added a total of 1.9 billion yuan ($298.89 million) to China's gross domestic product (GDP) tally - and despite its collapse, this figure is likely to stay on the books as an achievement in the country's economic development. What's more, if the bridge is rebuilt, an additional 1 billion yuan will probably be added to the GDP figure.


China's GDP has expanded by enormous rates over the past 30 years, in large part due to huge investments in infrastructure in the country. Yet, judging by the poor construction quality of many of these projects, a huge chunk of the country's GDP - perhaps as much as 20 percent - has been wasted. This is one of the reasons why many people across China have failed to see huge improvements in their livelihoods despite the runaway growth seen in the country's GDP.


The author is Yao Shujie, head of School of Contemporary Chinese Studies of University of Nottingham.

Sun, 09/02/2012 - 23:17 | 2757008 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

We should be OK then, right?

Sun, 09/02/2012 - 23:21 | 2757019 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

I think that may depend on your definition of we.

"I" am fucked. Good luck to all y'all's "We"s.

Sun, 09/02/2012 - 23:17 | 2757007 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

the bernank has this ultimate set of tools, he can fix China....

Sun, 09/02/2012 - 23:22 | 2757012 muppet_master
muppet_master's picture

"bad is good so far"


i masively shorted SPY and other casino stocks when spx @ 1392, 1415...rode to 1427....= my what a "MASSIVE short squeeze" LOL !! spx now @ 1407 = Friday's close...after RAPIST "fed" announcement.....

but, but the casino didn't sell off!!! = i'm just riding.....

on animal planet this weekend, beautiful quote:  "its SIZE vs PATIENCE" regard to the pride (lions) waiting to munch on a dead hippo's carcass...the hippos didn't want the lions to munch on it...the lions patiently waited.....

i'm very patient...also last week I ADDED to my EUR shorts of 1.237...added @ 1.26.....avg price = 1.25 @ 7X leverage. 

If you like to BUY HIGH..go ahead and buy gold @ 1700....i'll wait for sub $ I said I'm a very patient guy. 

Sun, 09/02/2012 - 23:46 | 2757052 chump666
chump666's picture

September is one of the worst months for stocks, a lot of profit taking and messy trades cut/sold etc.  Last session was a good example of a messy close re: ZH/nanex HFT story.  The thin, nervous markets leading into Sept is telling that a LOT of cash will be taken off the table in the next few weeks. QE3 was priced in and then priced out.  It most likely will be lite which won't send stocks into hyperspace.  IMO the market is heading for a huge correction (huge in central planning speak is at least 3-5% or on a bad day 10%neg).  But, the Fed and ECB have puts.  So shorting to long positions is advisable.

Asia just went false breakout on China stimulus hopes, which will never happen as long as their property sector is hugely bid and oil is bid.

This market is coming down.  How hard?  I dunno know. But with HFTs running all indexes.  Could be a nasty 1987 style crash.

Mon, 09/03/2012 - 01:00 | 2757101 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

I did like you, been short for 2-3 weeks now, so far down a bit but if markets go up today I will add more. Even my 3x short ETFs are not doing too bad. WRT gold, I plan to add (Note, I didn't say buy) at below 1,620. Until then I will hang onto what I have. For silver, under 30, same approach. I don't think they will go (much) below that this year.

Mon, 09/03/2012 - 07:45 | 2757319 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

You will need infinite patience for that to happen.

Sun, 09/02/2012 - 23:23 | 2757013 Shelby Moore III
Shelby Moore III's picture

"Bad is good" (expectation of QE) will work to keep markets up until both the Fed and ECB disappoint, circa Sept or latest before end of Oct:

Keep an eye on Slow STO and turning points on the $VIX.

Sun, 09/02/2012 - 23:20 | 2757016 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Baffling. But I think that the poor guy that said, "We had nothing to do with the money" was so scared that he said that instead of "We did not know what to do with the money." Guilty by translation in any case.

Sun, 09/02/2012 - 23:24 | 2757023 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

<== Snorg Tees


Sun, 09/02/2012 - 23:41 | 2757045 AndrewJackson
AndrewJackson's picture

I love how everyone sees emerging markets, china, and europe getting pummelled but then thinks that business as usual "rally on my wayword son" can work in the S&P 500. Something is going to give. The only questions is if the bernank can keep it going until the election.

Sun, 09/02/2012 - 23:43 | 2757047 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Sub 300 on gold. You are about 12 years late. And shorting this market has rarely worked for more than a few days. 

Good luck with that one. And yes, I added to my gold exposure near 1,700. Thank you very much.

Sun, 09/02/2012 - 23:49 | 2757056 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Sorry.....where are we? I was looking at that chicks tits.....

Sun, 09/02/2012 - 23:52 | 2757059 knukles
knukles's picture

Not to worry, it's all under control.


U-Haul with equipment for Biden event stolen in Detroit Posted by

Washington (CNN) – A U-Haul truck loaded with equipment for a Monday event featuring Vice President Joe Biden was stolen in Detroit Sunday, a spokesman for the U.S. Secret Service said.

"A U-Haul that we were utilizing was stolen at the Westin Hotel overnight," Ed Donovan told CNN.
Donovan would not specify what equipment was in the U-Haul at the time it was stolen, and added that the theft shouldn't affect the vice president's plans on Monday.

Biden is scheduled to speak at a Labor Day rally in downtown Detroit Monday and march in a parade organized by the Michigan AFL-CIO. Last year President Barack Obama spoke at the Motor City's Labor Day celebration.

Mon, 09/03/2012 - 00:37 | 2757091 El Tuco
El Tuco's picture

Ahhh Detroit, what an exciting city.....

Mon, 09/03/2012 - 00:52 | 2757094 Manthong
Manthong's picture

The truck just had Biden’s personal stuff and toiletries in it.


Mon, 09/03/2012 - 02:17 | 2757142 Freddie
Freddie's picture

You cannot make this shit up.  They drive a u-Haul into Detroit and it gets stolen.

Biden is scheduled to speak at a Labor Day rally in downtown Detroit Monday and march in a parade organized by the Michigan AFL-CIO

Parade?  The interesting thing about Detroit is it is disappearing.  Buildings falling apart, bulldozed or taken over by trees, plants etc.  It is like f**king Chernobyl.  The wildlife in Chernobyl is actually thriving because no subhuman humans about.

Chernobyl has radioactivity which keeps humans away.   Detroit has a dwiindling number of Hope & Change zombies, unions, rampant crime, despair and confiscatory taxation that keeps normal people away.   If you see pictures of abandoned buildings in Detroit - it is like the white flight left as fast as the people fled Chernobyl.

Detroit is slowly becoming a field in the Midwest which would be a great improvement.   

Mon, 09/03/2012 - 00:11 | 2757074 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

First Audit Results In The Federal Reserve’s Nearly 100 Year History Were Posted Today, They Are
The list of institutions that received the most money from the Federal Reserve can be found on page 131of the GAO Audit and are as follows..

Citigroup: $2.5 trillion ($2,500,000,000,000)
Morgan Stanley: $2.04 trillion ($2,040,000,000,000)
Merrill Lynch: $1.949 trillion ($1,949,000,000,000)
Bank of America: $1.344 trillion ($1,344,000,000,000)
Barclays PLC (United Kingdom): $868 billion ($868,000,000,000)
Bear Sterns: $853 billion ($853,000,000,000)
Goldman Sachs: $814 billion ($814,000,000,000)
Royal Bank of Scotland (UK): $541 billion ($541,000,000,000)
JP Morgan Chase: $391 billion ($391,000,000,000)
Deutsche Bank (Germany): $354 billion ($354,000,000,000)
UBS (Switzerland): $287 billion ($287,000,000,000)
Credit Suisse (Switzerland): $262 billion ($262,000,000,000)
Lehman Brothers: $183 billion ($183,000,000,000)
Bank of Scotland (United Kingdom): $181 billion ($181,000,000,000)
BNP Paribas (France): $175 billion ($175,000,000,000)
and many many more including banks in Belgium of all places

View the 266-page GAO audit of the Federal Reserve (July 21st, 2011)

Mon, 09/03/2012 - 01:12 | 2757109 Freedom In Your...
Freedom In Your Lifetime's picture

If this is true I am expecting an epic day of comments on zero hedge. I thought the $800 billion bailout that they annouced was rage worthy. This just blows my mind.

Mon, 09/03/2012 - 01:42 | 2757122 chump666
chump666's picture

For real?

The Fed, more so the NY Fed should be audited for the massive amount of USD swaps to the ECB.


Mon, 09/03/2012 - 01:57 | 2757131 e-man
e-man's picture

Excellent post IR.

Mon, 09/03/2012 - 10:24 | 2757612 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Thx bro. We are all in this together.

Mon, 09/03/2012 - 02:06 | 2757135 Bear
Mon, 09/03/2012 - 02:09 | 2757137 brokenclock
brokenclock's picture

This should be the only topic discussed on every major financial outlet throughtout the world. This is outrageous and out right theft of the American taxpayer.  Lets see if anyone of them even have a clue. 

Everyone on here should copy this and post it everywhere.  Unreal!!!!!!!!




Mon, 09/03/2012 - 02:14 | 2757141 Kiwi Pete
Kiwi Pete's picture

Yes but didn't the Fed make a $45 billion profit on that so far according to the Washington Post?

Mon, 09/03/2012 - 03:05 | 2757164 mendigo
mendigo's picture

They are massively hedged.

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