China Trade Surplus Unexpectedly Rises As Non-EU/US Imports Spike; Crude Imports Relentless

Tyler Durden's picture

In keeping with the theme of everything decoupling from everything else these days, a comparable decoupling pattern could be observed in China's December trade data, which experienced a surprising jump in its trade surplus from $14.5 billion in November to $16.5 billion in December, even if exports broadly slowed down and grew at the slowest pace in 10 months. This net surplus number was quite odd as it represents almost double the consensus forecast $8.8 billion, predicated by a matched slow down in imports which were up only 11.8% Y/Y, the smallest rise since the October 2009 decline of 6.4%. The odd jump in the trade surplus appeared at a time when many were expecting that the slowing Chinese economy would be well on its way to shifting from surplus to deficit, leading to a devaluation of the CNY (as opposed to the constant badgering form the US and Chuck Schumer demanding a revaluation of the renminbi).

Furthermore, as the year winds down to the Chinese Near Year in February, this has been a traditional time when Chinese surpluses decline and even go negative (see 2010 and 2011). Yet a quick glance at China's two primary trading partners: the US and EU does not reveal anything peculiar: both were either flat or saw just a modest drop in the trade surplus - good news for anyone concerned that the European slowdown would hit China's largest trading partner. And here is where the decoupling occurred, as the surplus soared in the "rest of the world" or the non-EU/US category. As can be seen below, December is traditionally a month when the surplus contracts and approaches the flatline. Yet this year, oddly enough, the December ROW surplus doubled from $5.8 billion to $11.4 billion. Just who is it, outside of the US and EU, that suddenly saw a pressing need for Chinese imports?

And yet all of the above is likely just minutae when one considers something far more important: Chinese Oil imports. As the chart below shows, sooner or later excess capacity within the OPEC system is going to disappear. And then it gets really interesting.

China Oil Imports:

And here is the plain vanilla trade data.

Monthly surplus/deficit:

Monthly surplus/deficit by key trade partners:

China-US:

China-EU:

And most curiously: China - Rest of the World: