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Chinese Goldilocks Goalseekulator Spews Forth A Random Inflation Number And It Is...

Tyler Durden's picture




 

5.5! Right on expectations! We have a winner as the landing will be neither too hard, nor too soft... Just right. As for PPI, it came at 5%, on expectations of 5.8%, so the PBoC just telegraphed what we reported two days ago, namely that that one trillion yen in deposit backstops is not only urgently needed but coming any minute now. And so the reflation game begins anew.

And some actual notes from Bloomberg:

  • Oct. consumer prices rise 5.5% y/y, easing for 3rd straight month after reaching 3-yr high in July.
  • Consensus est. for Oct. CPI was 5.5% among 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg; prior month’s reading was 6.1%
  • Oct. CPI up 0.1% m/m
  • Oct. food inflation 11.9% y/y vs 13.4% for Sept.; non-food prices rise 2.7% y/y
  • Oct. PPI increases 5% y/y vs est. 5.8%, lower than 6.5% gain recorded for Sept.
 

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Tue, 11/08/2011 - 21:39 | 1859130 Starving Artist
Starving Artist's picture

Finally some good news.  RISK ON everybody!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 22:08 | 1859240 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Tyler put Gold(ilocks) right there in the title of his article, so I would invite everyone interested in GOLD to read FOFOA's great new piece on gold and money "Moneyness" at:

fofoa.blogspot.com

Yes, it IS long, but it is very, very good.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 00:02 | 1859541 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Right now, all over the globe, there are economists, some in the politiboro, some in academia, some even heading central banks, not understanding the following basic, fundamental and absolute equation:

For each unit of purchasing power destroyed via inflation, there is at least one less unit, at a minimum (I'd argue more than one unit of purchasing power destroyed given compounding effects, but I digress), available to be allocated towards the purchase of goods and services.

Stated differently, technocratic economic theorists don't grasp that inflation often represents a far greater and more destructive threat than deflation, from the perspective of real economic activity and growth, and that that inflationary inputs (especially at a time when wages/labor and credit-dependent assets such as homes, formerly comprising the bulk of what was the middle class's savings, are deflating and will continue to deflate due to automation, technology, a borderless trading world pitting slave against slave in the race to the bottom, and a contraction of credit available to middle class and working class individuals as well as small businesses).

This is precisely why someone like The Bernank should never be allowed to go near any lever or instrument of monetary policy.

We're all witnessing the highly destructive, sickening consequences of allowing such a person to have his hand on these levers as I write these words.

What's even more frightening and alarming is that it's quite possible (and even likely) that The Bernank would be more than happy and willing to double the cost of living, as purchasing power and consumption is cut in half, and tell the world that "at least economic activity is not contracting."

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 00:04 | 1859550 Hard1
Hard1's picture

Chinese macro numbers same as financial results of chinese companies listed through aquisitions.  Trust me, they are made up as a reverse engeneering of what number would a westerner like to see.

 

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 21:40 | 1859136 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

All propaganda is just right. R eality is just plain wrong. But, two Wongs can make one wight, you wascawily widdle wabbits!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 21:48 | 1859168 Western
Western's picture

Fairy tales are necessary sometimes.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 21:41 | 1859139 Marcuz Aurelius
Marcuz Aurelius's picture

I sense a great disturbance in the force !

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 22:10 | 1859258 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

I think that's just the dingleberries from the space-turd messin' with your mojo....

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 21:41 | 1859143 wolverhine
wolverhine's picture

There you go me insighter

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 21:42 | 1859146 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

Wing wang wung, who flung the cow dung at the Chinamon!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 21:42 | 1859148 Hopium Dealer
Hopium Dealer's picture

Chinese inflation is 15% right now.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 21:43 | 1859151 Let them eat iPads
Let them eat iPads's picture

Food inflation only 11.9%

Good thing they don't need any of that stuff.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 21:44 | 1859157 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Purse your lips and blow.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 21:45 | 1859161 Andrew G
Andrew G's picture

ONJ was spot on ages ago - get physical! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vWz9VN40nCA

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 21:45 | 1859164 Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

OK, then. Everybody back in the pool.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 21:48 | 1859178 e1618978
e1618978's picture

We need the billion price index to open a branch in China

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 21:52 | 1859186 reader2010
reader2010's picture

Pork is too expensive and they've started eating baby girls now. 

http://img.bimg.126.net/photo/FQ4f1m4qNxk5zSj2iaA5tQ==/14456554803862833...

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 22:24 | 1859312 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Wow.

There is already a huge vagina shortage in china cause they prefer to kill baby girls.

If they start eating them again (seems to happen every 500 years or so) then it will just get worse.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 21:52 | 1859188 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

Why use a goalseekulator when you can just punch in the target.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 21:56 | 1859198 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

Bang Dae Ho

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 22:01 | 1859207 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 So, with that denominator in mind.  When does " Goldielocks Go into Self preservation mode?"

 

   Those " divergent" bull shit cyn numbers were farcical! It's all good they will just revise next week, through some non-event, past -tense confirmation of regulation. Written with LEAD PENCILS!

 

    Better yet ! The pending #'s in a couple of  , Hong Kong- Shanghai  ( lunch time) hours will fill the voids.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 01:54 | 1859736 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

hang seng = 19,999.99

 

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 21:58 | 1859210 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

WS needs them 8% or it's lights out, bonuses are also to be disbursed and plenty please!!!
And all of this at already hugely overbought levels, hehehehe!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 22:02 | 1859223 onarga74
onarga74's picture

I still can't believe that Communism was going to be the end of America.  Now they're makin our stuff.  Guess the commie scum arent bad if they have money and can balloon your bottom line.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 22:06 | 1859237 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I see your point Sarah. Hop Singh has some " Hot Plates " , for sale.  Contact 101 " Tiananmen Square" , and tell them Yen Cross sent ya.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 22:28 | 1859324 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Never forget.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 22:13 | 1859265 New American Re...
New American Revolution's picture

If China is the end of America, it is only because we paid for it.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 00:27 | 1859591 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 PBoC, are the best at financing exports!   VIA  ( US 10 Year notes)...

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 22:13 | 1859267 chinaboy
chinaboy's picture

If you look at the Shanghai market, people are a lot less exicited than the government had hoped.

My personal take is that this better than expected number and the triliion yuan printer job will proven to be another mistake down the road.

What's the point of popping up the stocks. It is a bullshit market anyway. I can't either buy or sell at this level.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 22:19 | 1859291 BigInJapan
BigInJapan's picture

"Trillion yen"?
Trillion Yuan, dayo.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 22:21 | 1859302 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Wow ! Amazing how quickly theyearned from us to put out just the right numbers to achieve their desired results.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 22:33 | 1859353 moskov
moskov's picture

I think the tightnening measure from the government really took some effect. They don't have to lie about inflation at the point since the past months were pretty bad. What's the point of faking it now?

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 22:36 | 1859368 sumo
sumo's picture

The Chinese haven't finished buying the West's gold.

When they're done, the goalseekulator will be turned off.

 

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 22:34 | 1859356 chump666
chump666's picture

The Goldilocks curse, silly China, the US tried to pull that in 2007...and you what happened after that.

China will crash so hard it will be like a asteroid hitting the Earth.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 22:41 | 1859383 chump666
chump666's picture

just want to add about the fudge heads in China, is to keep a lid on the USD buying ala cross boader Yuan settlements.  Won't work, there is just too much BS in the market as the moment.  No one is buying BS anymore. 

 

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 02:09 | 1859751 chump666
chump666's picture

also wanted to add the dumb ass Chinese commie 'officals' just sent oil bid. y'know  China being a net importer.  We look forward in hearing about the major China banks/councils being bailed in the very near future.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 06:02 | 1859919 css1971
css1971's picture

You can edit your own posts. Till some one replies.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 23:22 | 1859478 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

It's still 5.5%. Right when the global economy is slowing. Too perfect. 

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 23:40 | 1859502 DrunkenPleb
DrunkenPleb's picture

Chinese crash or Euro print-fest first? I'm taking bets with your little arrows... Up for Euro, Down for China

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 23:49 | 1859521 1000pips
1000pips's picture

Always remember China backs Iran, if Israel starts war with Iran then China will participate. Then we have the End of the World, cause Israel will push the button if she is about to go down. This is the true 'End Game', because China wants Iran'a OIL. ! Can't trust China-Ever.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 23:59 | 1859533 delacroix
delacroix's picture

isreal will push the button, but you can't trust china? WTF

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 00:16 | 1859571 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

a bullshit bull's eye, BiCheZ!

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 00:24 | 1859589 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Slewie? Did ya junk the thread?   You are such a meanie!  My Black and Decker hot /pot stopped working.  

 

     Now I need eat over boiled lead/ hot pot -= Fish heads.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 00:45 | 1859627 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i just arrived

haven't junked anybody

yet

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 00:44 | 1859623 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

Inflation does not equal 'inflation'. It is inflation PLUS 'Inflation' in China.

China GDP includes f/x factor which is interest rate spread between official and underground economies in China. That amounts to two-thirds of China's 9% GDP ... and this is all inflation.

'Inflation' can be seen by the amount of interest charged by loan sharks who have dollars to swap for yuan. Their exchange rate relative to 'official' exchange rate determines their vig or what they must charge to earn a profit.

Official rate is six + yuan/dollar, the 'unofficial' rate is twelve yuan per dollar so loan shark must charge more than 100% interest per year to cover f/x cost.

The greater the yuan discount to dollars the more interest the loan sharks must charge. Yuan borrowers must borrow much more than what they need so they can relend balance at an even greater interest rate.

Loan shark rates are 120-189% so the 'inflation' rate as determined by f/x to be much greater than the 5%, maybe 10% per month at a minimum.

PBOC is doing its best to stabilize the country while 'free market' is driving China into hyperinflation on dollar arbitrage! Yet PBOC allows this trade as otherwise all exporters will go out of business on rising yuan! By shifting f/x to loan sharks the PBOC can claim to not be manipulating currency while letting the crazy underground make yuan policy!

Pretty funny not for Chinese.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 00:43 | 1859624 pleseus
pleseus's picture

Good to see the central banks everywhere see deflation. Just in time to start firing up the printing presses. I smell a break out coming up in precious metals.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 01:02 | 1859656 privatehedge
privatehedge's picture

Made in China - this statistical subterfuge sucks 'em in every time. For all the so called sophistication of data collection and measurement that is picked over by the squillions of DM economists from JPM to ANZ, couldn't hit the side of a slow moving bus... So how on earth can the ram-shackled Bureau of Statistics collecting (?) data bits the length of breadth of China get within even coo-eeee of even something close to the truth, let alone bang smack on the number nearly every time, unless of course policy dictates. The truth? Forget-about-it. Dont argue A FREE BMW with each apartment. RUFFR?

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