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Chris Martenson Lecture On Why The Next 20 Years Will Be Marked By The Collapse Of The Exponential Function
In this video courtesy of GoldMoney, Chris Martenson, economic analyst at chrismartenson.com and author of ‘The Crash Course’, explains why he thinks that the coming 20 years are going to look completely unlike the last 20 years. In his presentation he focuses on the so-called three “Es”: Economy, Energy and Environment. He argues that at this point in time it is no longer possible to view either one of those topics separately from one another.
Since all our money is loaned onto existence, our economy has to grow exponentially. Martenson proves this point empirically by showing a 99.9% fit of the actual growth curve of the last 40 years to an exponential curve. If we wanted to continue on this path, our debt load would have to double again over the next 10 years. By continually increasing our debt relative to GDP we are making the assumption that our future will always be wealthier than our past. He believes that this assumption is flawed and that the debt loads are already unmanageable.
Martenson explains how exponential growth works and why it is so scary that our economy is based on it. In an example he illustrates how unimaginably fast things speed up towards the end of an exponential curve. He shows that an exponential chart can be found in every one of the three “E’s” for instance in GDP growth, oil production, water use or species extinction. Due to the natural limitations on resources, Martenson comes to the conclusion that we are facing a serious energy crisis.
This energy predicament is namely that the quantity of oil as well as the quality of oil are in decline. He shows that oil discoveries peaked in 1964 and oil production peaked 40 years later. Martenson also shows how our return on invested energy is rapidly declining – the “cheap and easy” oil fields have already been exploited. In 1930 the energy return for oil was 100:1 or greater. Today it is already down to 3:1 and newer technologies such as corn-based ethanol only provide a 1.5:1 return. Martenson predicts that the time in between oil shocks will get shorter and shorter and that oil prices will go much higher.
Not only oil but also other natural resources are being rapidly used up as well. At the current projected pace of use, known reserves for many metals and minerals will be gone within the next 10 to 20 years. The energy needed to get these non-renewable resources out of the ground is growing exponentially. So we live in a world that must grow, but can’t grow and is subject to depletion. The conclusion out of all this is that our money system is poorly designed and that we need to rethink how we do things as quickly as possible.
After finishing his presentation Chris Martenson answers questions regarding a rise in efficiency, alternative technologies and oil prices. He also responds to questions regarding electricity, shale gas, gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and uranium and the race for global resources.
This video was recorded on November 16 at the Gold & Silver Meeting 2011 in Madrid.
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As a Biologist, I shudder every time someone uses evolution when natural selection is the correct activity.
You're assuming that human affairs are any where truly Darwinian.
Think about this: Ivanka Trump is more likely to survive a die-off than you.
I actually have no problem with that and would expect the rich to survive over non rich (me). Thats the way it works.
I'm not putting a value judgement on it either, bro. Just pointing out that the end result of human affairs can be anti-Darwinian and maladaptive for the species as a whole. It's counterintuitive
Currently, the data (people fighting over waffle irons) supports your premis. However, on a long enough time line will re vert back to natures law?
I hope so, bro. But I'm humbly admitting I don't know so. I just think that the strict Darwinian construct we've been endoctrinated to beleive in may have some key loopholes
qualify those people...
people are not fungible. There are different strains of us.
To forensic pathologists, race matters. To epidemiologists, race matters, When they are looking for people for a gd'd clinical drug trial, race matters. When they measure various inherent attributes, race matters. In all the scientific fields, race MATTERS. It's a meaningful construct. It shows up in empirical studies on almost everything.
Yet here in the layman's world, it's just nothing? Who am I to believe, a clinician or you?
Based on all the subsistance folks out there I'd say that you've got it wrong.
Those that are closest to the land are the ones more likely to survive.
No, she's not. Our odds are equally low.
Not if her dad can build her a panic room, bug out ranch, survival cellar, survival bubble or satellite.
But then the overriding question would be: if she is the chosen survivor, is that a fatal error for the species?
Biggest laugh about the doomer-porn movie "2012" was the fact that the worst collection of sociopaths were the ones being saved. Exactly the type of people ill suited to rebuilding in the aftermath...
Perhaps. But remember...on a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.
500 channels of this daydream simulation, helps me to resent my life and raise my expectations. CV
Dude - it's all about 'me' for many people. The attitude seems to be "Let me make enough money as quickly as possible so that I can retire quickly." It's not about building stable and durable systems for the benefit of mankind. It's all about the short-term not the long-term for many people.
Then our descendents will say: "Oh yeah, they were human, how predictable. Some chose to exploit everything, using deception at every turn, for their own benefit. Others chose to shove their heads in the sand as opposed to applying even modest effort toward critical thinking. And some, like the ZHers chose to be informed, then to inform and proclaim, but were ignored like street-corner prophets."
Hopefully the outcome will show the ZHers rising from the ashes, sustained by precious metals, index shorting, and currency diversification sufficient enough to enable them to topple the corrupt in the end.
The final chapter is up to us and what we do with it.
Cheers, brothers.
no, they'll marvel that people like you nearly broke their arms patting themselves on the back for being so freethinking, when you really aren't.
This place is as much an echo chamber as anywhere else.
People around here will commit suicide to prove silly shit like "equality" or other things that NATURE decides.
Nature can be fickle. There as many exceptions to the rules as there are rules. There are unknown variables, and unforeseen events. Ask the dinosaurs.
As opposed to you, who wants to commit genocide to prove how lonely and miserable you are.
wow...you exceed even Max in stupidity sometimes.
Sterilization is NOT GENOCIDE.
In fact, all of the people calling for a collapse...should they NOT be on my side on this? As in PLAN for a future of less, have the adult conversation?
No, because they know that any sane criteria will exclude PC protected people by "disparate impact" and that simply cannot be faced. The REAL thought matrix around here for which NOBODY wants the Red Pill is a hell of lot stronger than this financial one.
WTFever will all of you people do when you can no longer credibly ignore reality? Is it REALLY going to be that earthshaking for you to admit that asians and blacks don't have the same average IQ? That asians are inherently more "civilized" and that the traffic cameras and redlight cameras AREN'T RACIST because they seem to catch black drivers at the same disproportionality as they get pulled over by human cops (lol@DWB) and blacks' share of overall crime?
It will make the discussion of what DO WE DO a lot easier if everyone will just accept the facts. Instead, you will all march off to your own deaths, smart or dumb, rather than be accused of the ULTIMATE SIN. Bein a RAYCISS
You tell us about the Downing Effect and then you prove it by saying stuff that shows your limited concepts!
WTF?
This "civilization," and others that you would hold up as superior, are going to completely collapse. You ASSUME that in such a case that "whites" (and Asians?) will be more capable?, that history, your notion of it, says so?
How long have there been black people? How long for whites?
Excuse me if I'm not recalling correctly, but I _think_ that you had mentioned it being a cultural issue. If that's the case, then cultures of "blacks" in the US (western world) AREN'T the same as in other locations; therefore, your argument is WAY too broad to stand up to any meaningful test.
Dude, did you get raped by some big black guy or what?
it's my belief that if the 440+ operational nuclear reactors around the world aren't immediately, aggressively decomissioned, there won't be ANY descendants of ANY sentient beings on this planet in the coming centuries.
seriously, what the fuck were we thinking?
huh? Yes there will.
Don't say stupid stuff like this. Mammals outbreed radiation. Look at Chernobyl Dead Zone...one of the healthiest environments on the planet, clean, strong animals, robust wildlife, you name it. 'Cuz all the humans left for fear of radiation and cancer at 50.
In the future of this madmax collapse, people won't live long enough to get radiation-induced cancers. Mutated babies will die early.
that's ONE, CONTAINED reactor.
"Mammals outbreed radiation. "
Yeah, sure, like we've had lots of history to accurately note/observe this? I'm thinking not.
so will we have exponential decay? A regression back in time.... sweet, we get to relive the 90's, 80's, and 70's...
50's, 30's, 19th Century and when we finally arrive at the 18th Century; riding horses for transportation and cooking on at an open hearth chopped wood fire, the Occupy crowd and Global Climate Changers will finally be content.
I'll take the 9th Century for a true full reboot.
Just like real estate, it's all about location.
Perhaps it was childhood trauma, don't know, but I just don't see there ever being a big and useful (not recreation) population of horses. Horses will provide for hauling, but for general transportation purposes they won't very likely be all that common: takes a lot of land to maintain a horse, land that would be better used to produce food (be it livestock or plant based).
Don't know how prepared you are (how you are hedged for future risks), but my wife DOES cook on our wood stove and she has cooked on open fire (learned to do so growing up [not in the Western World]).
What makes you think that those people will be content with such a existence as if it was some curse to be cast ??
Do you think that the Greens wish misery on others (unlike a lot of hateful pricks you find meandering around the Hedge)... It ain't their fault if you cannot read the writing on the wall...
If we figure out how not to self-immolate ourselves chasing the tail of the hydrocarbon age, there is a chance that our species will figure out a value system that is compatibile with continued existence on this planet. I doubt we will based on the attitudes and mindsets we see on display at a vast majority of blogs from alledgedly "intelligent" people.
BTW, you likely fall into category of white right wing psuedo-conservative, minimal post-secondary science and math training, with a strong chance of being evangelical and being from a "Red" State. Almost all peak oilers understand AGW and vice versa, but a denier of one is guaranteed to be a denier of the other.....Show me otherwise.
DOW 1000 hats, bitchez!
Simutaneously - Oil $1,000 hats!
Wait....
Which damn hat am I putting on, because if I put on the Oil $1000 I have to wear the silver $200...
And if I am wearing silver $200 I am wearing gold $5000....
And if I am wearing these, I can't wear a hat that says "King Dollar" because that would look stupid....
So which damn hats are we wearing? Let's figure this out before we party.
Just be sure to NOT wear ass hats!
No... I am an oil bull, but I don't see those kinds of numbers for a long long time.....
Volatility between $80 and $150 of todays dollars.... higher lows..
Do people realize that the 2011 has had the highest average oil price?
I'm bailing when we get back to bell-bottoms and disco again.
Disco, polyester and big hair? No! Say it ain't so!
Say good bye to iPhones and Facebook!! WOOT!!!
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function."
---Albert A. Bartlett
Watched this series of videos one insomniatic night about 3 years ago...made a believer out of me....
as one who always has, I partially concur with Al. The greatest shortcoming of the human race is not this inability, though, it is the Downing Effect. This phenomenon alone causes untold strife.
It is how people who can't grasp the exponential function place themselves and their judgment ahead of those who do.
I suspect you may be right. But, Bartlett didn't want to venture as to why people didn't understand, just point out what needed to be focused on: and if the Downing Effect cannot be overcome then I guess class gets out VERY early, as in "it's cancelled!"
the downing effect is nonsense...there is no objective baseline from which to measure...human excellence is not definable much less quantifiable...more idiocy masquerading as academia
funny because you just demonstrated it...
NO! The Exponential Function is STRONG, it is....MATH.
It exists beyond this petty mortal coil.
As for the financial system, yah kiss it goodbye.
This is why I no longer have a television.
Thanks for the great post.
Its no accident that things are the way they are. Ponzi schemes generally require an environment of exponential growth.
And a willing, compliant mass of ignorant sheep and suckers.
21st century USA: Mr. Ponzi, eat your heart out!
Wow, I didn't know the Club of Rome still exist. Who knew?
Rule 72 - scares the bejessus out of me.
But I just like to think of the World as a petri dish and the Human race a virus upon its face. That I can visualize
If one has not watched Crash Course you have not learned. Chris Martenson has shown that our system is not sustainable economically,environmentally,and energy. Basically with peak oil,debt crisis,and resources shortening humanity is going to enter a neo dark age. There will be no superpowers,nations will be in civil war or disorder.
so,... it is for the good of humanity, we, as a civilization must downsize - pick your poison chris,... a refreshing cup of hemlock; a steady as we go, daily dose of grade-a arsenic; a soothing hot cup of jade and mercury tea, or the house special,... a 'russian roulette shot of cyanide', gaurateed to get you there first
you thought of it first?
Gotta watch later!!!!!
I love this guy. He woke me up...
Judeo-Gucci exponentialism bitchez
Exponential decay. Ahem... sound anything like the "economies of scale in reverse" that I've been mentioning for oh so long?
I use this term because it uses the same language that was used to pitch us into the upward spiral- "economies of scale will always produce goods cheaper" blah, blah. So, people have had this term drummed into them for so long now. "You know about economies of scale?," you ask someone, "yeah, sure" they reply. "Well, what do you think it would look like in REVERSE?"
I'm thinking that people are finally starting to get it.
I used to be all for exponential growth as a means of forcing humans onto other planets. But if that's not going to happen, then I think that something will eventually come along to bring the human population down to a more sustainable number, like a million or two.
Do you mean as in the short story The Marching Morons?
How are the next 20 years are going to be different.....ya think...the last few years have been like none other in our history!!
1) TSA gropes grandma and makes kids walk through a scanner at the airportr....DID NOT HAPPENEN IN 1991!!
2) Homeland security SUV's at sporting events and other large events including Military airshows (like they need any f.....g help) not in 1991!!
3) $100 oil now when it was under $20 in 1991....must be some good change in there somewhere. Inflation is contained though....
4) US was a creditor nation in 1991, now the largest debtor nation ever and will be the last to circle the bowl after the Euro.
5) Interest paid on your savings now...nil.....and good luck trying to get your cash out of a bank when tshtf!
6) 1991 had a former CIA director and VP as President....2011 we have a person who has never had a real job as President!
7) 1991 gold was at $285......today it is $1,722...........don't worry though.....all is well...keep watching Dancing With the Stars!
1991 - Debt to GDP was 63%
2011 - Debt to GDP is 100%
Debt to GDP has increased exponentially the last 3 years. We are exponentially borrowing even more money. We are no longer a productive country, we are now a drain. Numbers don't lie.
12/31/2009 - 86%
12/31/2010 - 95%
YTD - 100%
Let's think through this to the inevitable conclusion: imminient global war or pandemic.
The .01% have known about this for far longer than we have. If they buy the premise, the conclusion has to be that there are too many people in the world. That's one of the ends of the equation: average energy consumption x total population.
So the choices are either much less energy consumption per person, more energy production per person or many fewer people.
- With prices that will allow advanced economies to function, real conservation is impossible.
- Everyone on ZH keeps proclaiming that peak energy has come and gone - we may develop alternatives, but not enough or fast enough to plug the looming EROI gap and save us from a civilization threatening energy shock.
That leaves the third option. The seeds of population restriction/decline have been planted with various pharmaceutical, agricultural, cultural, political, and economic policies. Europe is depopulating absent mass immigration, cancer rates in the west are spiking, sperm counts are way down along with fertility, etc. But to get any kind of solution to the EROI problem, TPTB need actual massive reduction of the number of live humans. How does this happen?
- It's problematic to let an economic collapse lead to war. Too unpredictable, so we'll probably see something happen before the system implodes.
- Full fledged nuclear war will leave too many holes in the infrastructure.
- Anything that is drawn out will reduce the population, but will also harden it. The ideal situation for TPTB will be a disheartened but grateful remnant, ready to pitch in and restore order. That means either tragedy or an enemy.
If the economic system collapses first and the country descends into internecine war, that will reduce the population, but what's left will be victors, who may have grabbed control of the nukes.
Who holds the nukes will be key, so Russia will be a wild card.
Bottom line: we know from what they've written that many globalists are actually open advocates of population reduction. Though usually couched in humanitarian terms, there are some who come right out say we need half a billion or fewer humans. This seems, already, like a key turning point in history. There is some small chance that things will go against them. A global war or pandemic (tailored, of course) may seal the deal. It seems the safest bet for them.
Please correct me if I incorrectly interpreted what you wrote, but I think that I read that you said that issues concerning EROEI could be offset by a reduction in population? EROEI doesn't care how many humans there are: it's about how much energy is required to do the work and what the energy output of that work is; it could be robots, kangaroos, doesn't matter, the equation just measures energy.
Population comes into play when you start talking about the consumption of energy for anything other than converting energy to a usable form.
yeah, I meant impact of falling EROI
In this realm, even globalist PTB are in the dark as to cause and effect. That's the fatal flaw in their logic: logic does not always prevail
Exactly, why always this notion that TPTB are so clever and above everything.
Ok, they have money and a lot of time, but what do you think they do with that?
Better themselves? Improving their character? Building their community? lol
Enough with that lie that TPTB are planning something big, etc...
They cant plan anything other than the next heist, or the next coup to avoid taxes, or their next hostile takeover etc...
They are decoupled from reality more than a drunk homeless person.
But, did you consider if "they" are sane in thought?
"imminient global war or pandemic"
You think those two things are mutually exclusive...?
Martenson rocks! Been a member since 2008
I am thinking next year we get a major super power skirmish. On that Gold will go ballistic.
Next year....ya like probably January at the latest. Big troop movement out of San Diego the last six weeks!
yeah some warning signs there. China's generals in Pakistan this mth etc.
Anybody betting on "Peak Oil" and "Resource Shortages" and "Collapsing Dollar", etc. has been decimated in their investments.
Maybe this process plays out over 20 years.
Right now, the consumer is stronger than ever and commodities are in ample supply with prices collapsing.
Robo titties, explain corn, wheat and cotton then? Next time you run to cvs to get your d-bag, check out the price of bread and milk.
Are you joking? The death of the dollar and peak resources has been the crux of my investing thesis and I have doubled my investments YoY!
RobotBasementMasturbator has clearly never heard of a metal called "gold".
thorstein veblen disagrees...merry christmas
Looks to me as if Chris is regurgitating this guy's concepts: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY&feature=player_embedded
The main flaw in his analysis is his beloved exponential laws. If instead we look at the energy issue using power law distribution instead of 'exponentially' growing there is a point in which the curve suddenly and ubruptly declines. Therefore by this point we must have moved to an alternative energy or be forced too. Look at the work by Benoit Mandelbroit, Pereto and many others.
I don't see his use of exponential models as a flaw. He is merely saying that the path we have been on has been (empirically) exponential in many areas: debt, resources, environmental change, etc. and that this condition of constant growth is required under the existing economic system. It's not his model that has this requirement, it's the current world economic system.
The next 20 years?
At the rate things are imploding around us in every way conceivable, the next 20 weeks will have little resemblance to the last 20 anything.
Martenson doesn't give "lectures". He gives sales-pitches on his "book" oil and gold. There have been people rationalizing the purchase of gold for a long time. But look over the list of the Forbes 500 wealthiest and tell me how many got rich with Gold?? Tell me how many even owe the "maintaining of their wealth" by Gold after they got rich??? You couldn't even count them on one hand. These guys like Sprott, Martenson and the guys who masturbate in the mirror on King World News will have to do more than talk about "e" and promise non-existant pies in the sky.
But if the "cult of personality" impresses the losers/goldbugs who comprise the dittohead portion of ZH readers and gets them off, who am I to interrupt???
You seem to have trouble with the "this time it's going to be different" concept.
Rothchilds got rich off of golds; their daddy sold rare gold coins to princes before he started lending them monies to fight war.
oh yeah, gold is the end game, the rest of it is bullshit... to get more gold.
nuance: got rich off timely play in gold and war.
Peak earl? LOL!
I cannot understand how otherwise intelligent people cannot see through the peak oil racket. It's right up there with global warming, alCIAda and every other boogieman invented for the gullible public. Don't you guys understand the game yet?
You are an idiot.
Perhaps, but the results of the Mensa admissions test I took would seem to contradict your opinion. In addition, your lack of anything resembling a rebuttal along with your acceptance of nonsensical arguments speaks volumes about your own lack of cognitive resources.
OK, yes, we take YOUR word, because, well... because you have a high "Mensa" score (though you don't say what it is, or that it even backed you as anything above a rock).
ZERO debate from you. You, Mr. Mensa, come out of the gates firing all blanks and you expect people to bow before you?
Yeah, all us clowns here relying on non-Mensa stuff like physics and math. Which direction do we face in order to bow?
I guess you you should face the TV set as you bow, since you seemingly accept what the TV "experts" (government employed) tell you without the slightest skepticism or, god forbid, independent research or perhaps you should bow to Al Gore, OPEC and the guy who was blamed for 911 who the US Government claimed to have killed a few months ago , the same guy who CBS anchor Dan rather reported in 2001, was days away from death (due to kidney failure) at a Rawalpindi, Pakistan hospital .
Plenty of directions to bow. Take your pick.
Give it up.... you are only going to look even worse if you keep it up...
PS Learn how to edit your white space... it will make you seem a little more professional and like, qualified...
I could not care less how I look to people like you. Honestly! My friends and I laugh at people like you.
Good thing we can strip mine Afghanistan next after it has been pacified. All is well.
Yeah cuz doing anything in Afghanistan always works well.
I found Martenson's explanation concise, logical, and well supported by data. He also speaks quickly and coherently. (Imagine him fielding questions next to GW Bush!) What still vexes me:
If the data is clear, why aren't people paying attention?
It seems my whole life I've been hearing presidents talk about solving the energy crisis, but the problem only appears to worsen, even in the face of imminent decline of resources...
Because there is not, and never has been a genuine energy crisis. There are manufactured crises.. That's all that exists.
Go ahead, explain it to all us dunces out here, Mr. Mensa.
I just did. The crises are manufactured. I don't know how to dumb it down any more than that.
People do not want to be told that things will get "worse."
In Western societies we've created such powerful marketing machines that people will believe the most absurd shit (like there's endless oil).
The elites would like everyone to drop their consumption, for sure, as that would mean MORE for them. This was communicated by one of the Forbes (can't recall which one) back in the 70s: he'd stated that the US should use everyone else's oil first.
"If the data is clear, why aren't people paying attention?"
It's not profitable to be announcing this via the marketing machine that only can blare "CONSUMPTION is the answer."
I don't know how long you've been awake to all of this, but there ARE plenty of people who know about it all. But, just like with all the "leaders," they cannot get any "solution" in place: overcoming societal ridicule (refer to the marketing machine) and entrenchments. I don't believe that there's any way to get any real collaborative effort (folks either think it communistic or some conspiracy). Just look at the current GOP runners to understand the dynamics: all except Ron Paul can stand there and denounce our militarism. Just like with militarism, energy is also a third rail. How many here are willing to toss aside a paltry wage-earning job to promote the fact of energy issues when you'll be seen as a communist or a conspiracy loonie? No, you go with the flow...
We will continue to do what we've been doing for as long as we can. I'd think that most here are libertarians, and as such, most would tend to be proactive and help themselves rather than waiting for the flock to catch up.
Yes and we KNOW the HOUSING Bubble never ended too ;-)
Did you know that Walmart sells single slug 12 gauge and hollow point 9mm at discount prices? i found that out tonight and topped off my basket. Thanks Sam!
Yet he misses a big axis of the environment part. He only talks about inanimated resources. But never about the biosphere. He never talks about climate. I guess I should check his crash course, but those 2 are items you just can't forget.
He includes "environment," but doesn't get into it because of the fact that it's nearly impossible to quantify, that trying to do so would detract from the message of depletion.
The mention of the copper mine(?) was there. 2 miles wide and 3/4 mile deep! (and it was once a mountain!)
Talking about the environment would, by reading several of the comments from the "deniers" here, be picked up as some commie conspiracy. Fuck, people, I've got some good southern baptist friends and they recognize the realities of protecting the environment: yeah, being that they are older, he being an avid hunter and outdoors-man has a lot to do with it; my POINT is that they don't see this as any conspiracy.
Thorium & anyone else get an Al Gore-ish feel in this presentation. Thanks for the post.
However you slice it or dice it...Too many people in the world...But don't believe it will be person vs. person for survival...More like E.O. Wilson's vision...Groups vs. groups is the battle ground...Individuals by themselves have no chance...Construct a posse or family for trouble ahead...Atleast that's how I'm thinking...
With the Rockefeller and Rotheschildes' monie we could make Africa a first world nation. We could give India an infrastructure that would rival the US. We are talking trillions of dollars of wealth from just these two families, and you think the earth is over populated?
I do...But It's not my opinion that ultimately counts on this matter...
What? It isn't a matter of opinion. Certain families have taken the majority of the money of the planet by installing a banking system that sucks everyone's wealth dry. Free up that money, and we could support this population.
Right now there are 50 million people on food stamps, yet half of the wealth in America is owned by .1%. Free up that wealth and you can sustain our population.
And just so you know, I don't think we should take money from just everyone with it, just bankster oilgarchs.
I would go much farther than that LH...The R&R most likely own everything...The 'bankster oligarchs' aren't going on a diet anytime soon...
So we could support all the people if we bled the banksters, that's all I'm saying.
If I was the 'King of the Castle' and the peasants were shouting across the moat (let alone charging across)...I know what I would probably do or atleast aware of my options...I think dreams of changing the mindset or bleeding the banksters is unlikely at best and completely, totally disastrous for the peasants at worst...I seriously doubt the world will have a 'Helter Skelter' moment LH...The best we can do is stay out of the way and survive...
Sidhartha left the castle and he found peace. Maybe you should leave your castle.
Too poor for castles...Love Herman Hesse...Ever read The Glass Bead Game...
Hesse is my favorite author, and Black Elk Speaks my favorite book.
Hasn't it been said that, "if you control the money supply, you control the power?"
We have the answer to sustain our population.
Quadrillions would not be enough to make Africa a first world nation. If you replaced the present population with Chinese or Germans, they would do it themselves.
We do seem to have an effective plan to make our standard of living equal Africa's though.
Meanwhile, the US and the other First World countries that are massively in debt would swap roles/places.
No, there's a REAL deficit. The game of hide the debt was already tried and it's proving to NOT work.
And once you give all the "free" money (which is really only computer bits) to all those other folks, then what? How do they then maintain this elevated position?
This is a mulch-dimensional world, we've got to stop trying to solve problems using two-dimensional thinking!
Didn't hear him mention that we the people can print our own currency and don't need to borrow it at interest from a private bank. That would eliminate much of the populaiton reduction programs currently in progress.
All this hand wringing and analysis.....all you have to do is shut up and hoard ! The details will take care of themselves ! Is there someone out there who is still undecided about the advantages of owning PM's ? Good grief ! Life isn't that complicated ! "Ya buya for one ana ya sella for two....who da fuck needsa education ?".....New Jersey Italian Folklore Monedas 2011 Comedy Jihad Hey High Plains Drifter How About My Jews ? Kickin' a little butt....my sly little Yidfucks ! Go Jews ! Go Jews ! Rah Rah Rah !
He says 1trl bbls consumed so far, another 1trl+ in reserves
That's conventional
Canadian oil sands alone has another 2.4trl non conventional and they can now use the oil from the oil sands production for extraction. That's Canada, now add US and Venezuela oil sands.
We have over 100yrs natural gas. At $4 it has the energy of $24 per bbl oil. $2000 converts a car to NG. I can drive Vancouver Canada to LA on NG, stations the whole route. If NG doubles to $8 it will still be half the price of oil on an energy equivalent basis. A doubling of NG price and we will have 125 yrs NG real fast. This won't be a problem in my sons lifetime and he is 2
Did you even bother to watch the video?
EROEI! Don't even think of cramming down what will be guaranteed govt subsidies for this shit down my through until you can get it through your stupid-assed head what this means!
"We have over 100yrs natural gas"
TWO-DIMENSIONAL thinking/response!
If I come up there and extract the fuck out of that do you think it will STILL last 100 years?
You're a fucking energy pimp/troll.
Daffy Duck: Say, it looks like a piggy bank crime wave. Why don't people keep their piggy banks on a safe place, like I do?
[opens his safe; it's empty]
Daffy Duck: It's gone! My piggy bank's been stolen! Oh, agony! A-go-ny!
Martensen is just preaching the doctrine of failure, which, of course, leads to failure. he's another Malthus. The valid point he does make about exponential growth is about 10th grade science/economics/history. Not that it is taught, but intelligent kids pick it up in what they learn, what they understand.
Human capacity however, is super exponential. Earliest man has existed only in numbers of a few million just barely, if critically, differentiated from animals by the procession of fire. We are now at 7 billion at much higher standards on all levels. that is progress that must continue.
For 2112, a world population of 20 billion plus consuming more than current US/Europe per capita energy levels would be about right. But that is only possible, were we to pursue a science/development program that concurrently had as it goal having at least 1 billion of that population living off planet.
2 or 3 hundreds years further down the road, we likely would be begin to see "limits" to growth in this solar system, but by then we won't be limited to this solar system, if we do our job right. Last I looked, the universe is rather big and appears to be unclaimed. So, what's the problem?
The current economic disasters are actually trivial were we to have the will to just eliminate the poisonous , unless, parasitic debt, and get on with real business of moving mankind forward.
Great stuff.
Glass-Steagall
American Credit System
NAWAPA
Fusion
Space program
So on and so forth.
I'll have what this guy is smoking....
One more point on EROI. If we switched inputs to NG from oil on oil exploration and production, EROI will shoot through the roof. Just running the gasoline and diesel trucks in the exploration of oil on NG increases EROI
This from the person who would have us believe that increasing consumption of NG wouldn't result in it depleting faster?
FAIL!
The problem isn't the Rockyfellows or the Redschields or the 1% or the Jews or the Pubs or the Bush or the Walmart ! The problem is the brain dead Socialists who vote for Obama, Barney Frank, Clinton and Carter ! Republicans now represent the Working Class ! Democrats now represent the Welfare Class ! There has been a political down shift ! Working Jews, Whites and Latins are going Republican ! Monedas 2011 Comedy Jihad Thumbnail Analysis Cuts To The Quick ! Gimme a J ! Gimme an E ! Gimme a W ! Whatduzitspell ? HELL for Syria and Iran ! Go go go ! Jew jew jew ! Go Jews ! Root root root ! Martenson sounds like a Jew name ?
I dunno about 20yrs. But the market is looking freaked now. AUD just tumbled...
Yeah that's wierd. The dollar is looking weak though.
Energy and Environment debate of his are way off.
Of course, if the status quo is maintained, he'll be right on, but if we shunt the imperial monetarism, it will be entirely wrong.
There is really no conceivable reason why mankind cannot grow in a universe of matter. We also know about fusion, and can see examples every night, well except for those of us in the city.
Fusion means his energy ideas are way off.
With energy solved, and it can be, we can start accessing the other 95+ percent of the crust we haven't tapped yet. (and it's the only crust in a universe of crust's that we've dug into, unless you count the mars rovers)
Also, after fusion, there's the fusion arc, where you can literally create whatever element you want.
Make Chris's ideas (in this article) irrelevant by ditching the imperial monetarism that is falsely dictating that we be constrained in this way. We CHOOSE to be in this conundrum. No part of this is natural, nor necessary. So he is both good and bad, but at least he is different than most, so you can gleam some important info. Like the sane people have been saying...green energy (aka fascist propaganda originated by the British Monarchy....google "The British Crown created Green Fascism", is a waste of time. Especially when you realize the human race needs more energy by any measure per person as time goes on, thus it is a complete waste.
That said, while Chris tends to believe too much in the limits he talks about, and thus trends to seek fascist pathways, or act as if he doesn't know of any alternatives...because they aren't in a box in front of him, he has accurately pegged a probably possibility if we continue down the Queen of England (otherwise known as the figurehead for imperial monetarism, or the 4th incarnation of the Roman Empire) genocidal, podunk, backwards policies.
That is of course, if we avoid WWIII, which seems every day, more certain...coming soon.
Impeach Obama
Glass-Steagall
American Credit System
...and we have the tools to start the process to avoid what Chris states.
However if we play stupid, and do nothing.....then that is the ONLY reason it takes place. Just like an ostrich who keeps his head in the sand, will starve to death, not because he has to, but because of it's asinine lack of action to do anything about it.
Chris needs to be able to create as much as he analyzes. Otherwise he's about as useless as a dildo to a woman with no hands. A tease.
Quit refusing to take a stab at what's necessary, it's only obvious. Fusion or bust. That's it....and no, that doesn't mean we have to maintain the exponential debt model, so it won't go against that. Be careful not to push people into the same false sophistry you are railing against.
There is absolutely no reason mankind can't get by these current onrushing limits. NOTHING except our fraudulent debt based imperial monetarism that is....oh and the propaganda they spew, like 7 billion is unsustainable, bullshit. The universe can sustain far more than that, and the human brain is capable of accessing it, and we need not access all of it to sustain ourselves....that's where fusion and fusion arc come into play. We put more time and energy producing ink for fiat that we do on fusion, and people wonder why it's not here, and thus falsely believe all the fascist propaganda saying mankind cannot maintain. Not to mention slowing ourselves in space since before even the moon landings (how many people know the funding was cut before we even landed there?).
Strange, how TPTB can create earthquakes, nuke-like explosions or implosions, missile shields, and other exotic weapons with free energy EM scalar waves, and not produce a ray of hope for the commonweal.
The planet is full of energy and sociopaths.
SCOPE CHECK
1 day of oil for 7 billion people
is
19 million years of oil for 1 person
YOU ARE TINY
Investing is good, saving is better, hoarding is best!
-- old Chinese saying.
I don't think Martensons right.
In the UK the price of a gallon of diesel is now $2.20 (US dollars) per litre.
The result is a slow decline in traffic volumes.
And for the first time a decline in consumption of fuel for private vehicles.
Sooner or later it's going to hit $3 a litre, the $4 and so on.
The result will be less diesel & gas used, as people simply stop driving around in cars.
Ultimately as the price of anything goes up, the use of it declines.
In a world where cars are the only consumers of oil, yes.
On Earth, no.
Its not about the amount of oil we have available, its about EROEI. We could have 5 Qaudrillion barrels of the black shit. If it has an EROEI of less than one, it is useless to us. From being 100 in the early days of oil, EROEI has drifted down to what? 3-5? It is not the quantity, but the energy to get it out that is the breaking point. Regardless if Oil is $20 a barrel or not.
EROEI.
If it takes 1MW of electrical power to pump out 0.1MW of oil it is worth doing IF 1. You need the oil for something eg transport AND 2. your source of power is not sourced from the same resource.
1A At that rate you won't be burning it.... it is a feedstock, not an energy source.
2A Equivalent statement to 1A, the oil fraction of your societies energy demand is small. Do the math for different assumed EROEI values of your primary, you will see
Its not about the amount of oil we have available, its about EROEI. We could have 5 Qaudrillion barrels of the black shit. If it has an EROEI of less than one, it is useless to us. From being 100 in the early days of oil, EROEI has drifted down to what? 3-5? It is not the quantity, but the energy to get it out that is the breaking point. Regardless if Oil is $20 a barrel or not.
Chris did not mention commercial scale (hot) nuclear fusion using laser beams to contain the plasma.
Nuclear energy should work fine to replace gas & coal. With electric cars and GTL (Natrual gas to liquid oil) we should be ok for the next 20 years- iff we start building modern nuclear facilities soon.
Modern nuclear power plant design is absolutely safe.
It is a NIMBY political problem, not a technological one. Japan just made things a lot worse with its stupid old design and lack of request for international help in the first 24hrs of the crises.
"Absolutely safe"? Show me one that's designed to withstand an M9 earthquake and 50 foot wall of water.
Or, more realistically, show me one that will withstand a terrorist flying a 747 into the reactor core.
OK, I will take back "absolutely" because it implies "absolute saftey" which isn't what I meant.
What I did want to say is that modern design is much safer. Safe enough that the risk is reasoable, which is obviously not true with the old designs. I've gone thru the issues around 2008 with high Oil prices, thinking of stock purchase. Westinghouse turned out to be the logical choice with its new AP1000, only Toyota got it first :( The design is expected to be "orders of magnitude safer" then older designs.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AP1000
Your question on a 747 has been directly studied and answered:
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/RS_Nuclear_reactor_gets_OK_on_aircraft_impact_2401111.html
Don't forget the alternative is a new dark age. Nuclear power as a stop gap to Fusion is the only way forward.
If we all die through wars because of lack of energy, nuclear power will start to look awfully nice. Except by then it will be too late, thus we have to quit being idiots now.
Here's a fact, world wars kill more than a rare nuclear meltdown. Hell monetarist dogma has killed more than nuclear power could ever kill. Someone could be 100 percent against nuclear power, but ask them if they'd rather have 6.7 billion people die in a nuclear war instead....and what would their response be then?
But don't get caught up with nuclear power's risks. You have power reactor designs with the 'disasters', not to mention extreme natural disasters, and as bad as it seems, world wars are worse. These aren't going to be operating for hundreds of years. Just a few more decades, and there are many designs which are much safer than the 1st or 2nd generation plants which are the ones that saw the disasters take place, one with the mother of all natural disasters impacting it.
Then you retire them, after you get fusion up, running, and deployed.
Anyone that doesn't want to go down this road is a fucking idiot, and wants what happened to the Germans at the end of Raiders of the Lost Ark, to happen to them.
Conserving won't do shit. British Crown created fascist green energy is a waste that will never work. Without nuclear and fusion, mankind is fucked, which means either we do this and survive, or we don't and die. It is that simple. Don't let the propaganda get to you. Nuclear energy, when done right, is safe. We don't fund the safe stuff, so we're stuck with the unsafe stuff. Which means the anti-nuclear people, are actually the ones who are creating the problem, since without them, all our plants, would already be switched over to safer designs. But since we stopped that progress, we're still stuck with the unsafe ones. Funny the law of unintended consequences. It's the anti-nuclear idiots, that are keeping the unsafe designs in service.
Again though, Fusion is the bigger project however. So let's not take our eye off the ball, and there is plenty of water in the world, you just have to desalinize it. Which of course, monetarism will not allow us to do.
When monetarism is the ultimate hindrance of man, then monetarism must be ditched. Just remember however, ALL presidential candidates are monetarists. Either Keynesian or Austrian. Both hindrances, for no reason other than it benefits the oligarchy, and people will believe any bullshit.
Hate to piss on your parade, if we cannot get fission right, we sure as hell won't be doing fusion right. For shits and giggles are you aware of how you turn fusion into useful energy??
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUMf7FWGdCw&feature=related
also factor in the effects of MF Global on Future prices, who is gonna trust the CME or any Western commodity exchanges/brokers
What? Exponential functions eventually collapse? Wow! This is breaking news!
Is there some sort of newsletter I can sign-up for? tia.
Youtube...."The Most Important Video You Will Ever See"
www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY
this is why we have the endless printing, because of debt levels are so high you have to always be wealtheir. which in this case it isn't about economic activity, it's about inflation.
Perhaps having a debt based monetary system with exponential money supply growth baked in is not a bad thing during periods of exponential growth?
This would also suggest though that we need a stable/non-exponential monetary system post peak in order to efficiently transmit the supply/demand/utility of the remaining resources.
In sum we could be also be nearing ‘peak’ humans?