Citi: "The Bear Market Rally Is Behind Us; We Anticipate A Move To 1,000-1,015"
While we are the last to put much weight in the predictive power of technical analysis, lately it has become all too clear that the only thing more worthless than technicals is fundamentals. Which unfortunately means that with the lowest common denominator (and marginal price setter) in the market being robots, in turn programmed by 20 year old math Ph.Ds who only know charts, it may be time to revise our skepticism. Enter Citigroup's Tom Fitzpatrick, who together with Goldman's John Noyce, are the two best sellsiders in this particular field. In short, neither has much good to sayl in fact when it comes to near-term bearish sentiment, it will be hard to find someone as pessimistic as Fitzpatrick, even among the Janjuahs and Rosenbergs of the world. Citi's conclusion from a just released note should be enough to scare anyone who believes that the bear market rally started just about a month ago will persist: "While we respect the October monthly close on the S&P 500, we did not close above the 12 month moving average...we believe the bear market rally is behind us and anticipate a move towards the 1,000-1,015 target over the weeks and months ahead." And while charts will never be a good guide as to what words may come out of G-Pip's mouth next, with so much market action these days being purely backward looking, we would urge caution.
From Citi:
What to make of the monthly close on the S&P 500
- October 2011 saw the largest monthly gain on the S&P 500 in almost 20 years (since December 1991)
- We also saw a bullish outside month posted in October
- Does that mean everything is fine and we are set to go higher? No
- While the monthly close may seem constructive it alone is not enough. The charts below instead suggest that the downtrend has resumed and a move towards our 1,000-1,015 target area lies ahead
To all who say the market looks like either 2007 or 2008, relax: you are both right!
- The price action over the past few months closely resembles that seen after the Oct 2007 high.
- More recently the bounce in Oct reminds us of the bear market rally in the second Quarter of 2008.
- That 2008 rally could not sustain above the 200 day moving average.
- The same has been seen this time with the 200 day now coming in at 1,273.
...Throw in some 76.4 Fibonnaci, rinse and repeat
- Held the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the May-Oct 2011 fall on the log scale chart which comes in at 1,294 (it is at 1,300 on the linear scale).
- Triple negative divergence is now in place reflecting weakness in the bounce and warning of a turn down.
- We also saw triple negative divergence at the high of the bear market rally in 2008…
- Triple negative divergence was also in place when we failed to push through the 200 day moving average at the peak of the bear market rally in 2008
In other markets we see:
- Key pivots holding on U.S. curves suggesting a trend of curve flattening ahead
- The double top in U.S. 2’s-10’s in particular stands out as it targets 100 bps from a current level of 180 bps. We struggle to see how that target will be tested on the curve with rising yields and instead foresee a bull flattening suggesting a move towards the 1.25% area on U.S. 10 year yields (long term multi year channel base)
- A worsening situation in the periphery of Europe (as per our daily charts yesterday)
In conclusion:
A worsening situation in the periphery of Europe (as per our daily charts yesterday) While we respect the October monthly close on the S&P 500, we did not close above the 12 month moving average. The charts above, our long term overlays (1910, 1940 and 1977) and the recent setups/developments across other asset classes makes it very difficult for us to abandon our medium term bearish stance on equities here.
Instead we believe the bear market rally is behind us and anticipate a move towards the 1,000-1,015 target over the weeks and months ahead.
(13 votes)
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Am I being told to dump my SDS??
As Euro markets bleed out, USA markets will rise. Maybe 10% to 15% more.
Euro markets were up today. The DAX is now 20% off its October lows. That doesn't seem like bleeding out to me.
That's because the DAX is denominated in PAPER. PAPER is NOT BACKED by ANYTHING. Better get your phyiscal SILVER soon cos that price is gonna EXPLODE! QE to INFINITY!!!
look for a Dow/Gold ratio of 1 in the coming collapse that will mark the turnaround
So, are we to believe that this is like 2008?? No, I don't think so.
Are we getting another announcement that THE SKY IS FALLING? If all the announcements of impending doom were close to being true, the damn sky would have crashed and burned years ago - 2008 to be exact.
Do Citi and Goldman Sachs all of a sudden become the beacons of truth after having been such utter thieves and liars? No, i hardly think so. Their assertions are open to serious question based on nothing more than their all to often impeached source.
While we are the last to put much weight in the predictive power of technical analysis, lately it has become all too clear that the only thing more worthless than technicals is fundamentals.
Hold it right there, partner!
What about Turd Ferguson? His ability to make 24 hour predictions is, quite frankly, a true blessing in our endless fight against Blythe and the "Cartel." While I don't actually "play with paper" (I'm a stacker!), I have many friends who have used Turd's technical analysis and have become extremely wealthy.
I think we all can agree that Tyler needs to be a little more careful in his generalizations.
Ron Paul 2012 END THE FED!
smarter than the average bear
The stock market is going to do whatever it wants, regardless of what is going on in the economy.
http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
,
I see dead people
Yeah, me too. The corpses are wearing Manolo Blahnik shoes and Saville Row suits, the pockets of which are stuffed w/uncashed bonus checks drawn on bankrupt banks....
These prices are CHEAP. Wait till Bernanke turns on the printing presses - ALL real assets are going to EXPLODE. I predict S&P at 10,000, gold at 100,000 when Bernanke anounces QE3,QE4,.........,QE infinity!!!!!!!! HYPERINFLATION BITCHES!!!
No the market will rocket up on QE and Gold money will move to equities. Great time to buy PM's but expect a dip short term if QE. Logic would make sense that gold goes up but no, nothing is logical anymore.
Check out: Fibonacci Numbers - The Fingerprint of God & God Within
See how money, created out of thin air has exploded the worlds financial sector and, it can disappear as if it never existed:
Evaporation of Wealth on a Vast Scale: How $Millions - Trillions Can Disappear
Check out the fascinating interview on the evolution of corruption with Ms. Fitts. And, If you're interested in the depth of the Rabbit Hole and the psychopaths within, see the "Dillon Reed and Company: And the Aristocracy of Stock Profits" link at the bottom of: The Looting of America: Happy Labor Day
Inflection Point
Thanks for those links P-Man. C. Fitts should be our next Secretary of the Treasury, she is amazing.
Great links. Thanks.
I can identify with that.
Good stuff.. cover graphic a little risque, though.
You should apply to the Federal Reserve. They are looking for smart kids like you.
Well how do you figure that, NewThor?
Shhhh, don't ask that question...Thor has spoken.
I ain't the Expert at micro, macro and granular economic happenings in all places.
That's why I come to ZeroHedge. To learn from the best of the best.
O just figured that the Euro Zone looks set to tank first,
and Nostradamus says the same shit. Europe gets smashed, then America.
So with all this liquidity sloshing around, I thought that when Greece tanks,
shit loads of money will be yanked out of there and most of it will end up around the USA.
And that'll last for 3-5 days, then CRASH BITCHEZ! Right?
and seriously, CPL
Me go work for The Serpent?
You should brush up on your Norse Religion.
I die destroying the Beast, not working for it.
Yes that makes sense, stocks should rally as the dollar gets stronger...
Right, because every dollar (euro) taken out of one market frictionlessly shows up in its competitor. You might want to check your logic there, friend. Start w/the concept of discontinuity. Then try studying up on "herding" and "panic." And maybe if that doesnt upset your priors, consider "illiquidity."
What happened to Old Thor? He was more exciting, or at least not trite.
Sometimes this market seems like such a scam.
Will Greece default already.
Anyone have any clue which direction the market is going to go tomorrow?
Will Friday's employment report make any difference.
Perhaps we need to develop a new word for this thing. "Market" doesn't seem appropriate. Calling this a market is like saying wrestling isn't fixed or calling a bowler an athlete. I know people like to use the word "casino" but this doesn't seem right either. if a casino operator ever tried this shit they would be getting the type of treatment DeNiro gave to the guys that were counting cards in Casino.
I keep thinking of the way dolphins herd anchovies. The little fish swim left, then dart right, but eventually get rolled into a nice, neat ball - the more efficiently to be eaten by the big fish. Most trading days I feel like the anchovy.
I prefer the Orca's method of smacking the fish ball senseless with it's massive tail and scooping up the stunned sushi.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvfY8-3ktNA
How 'bout "fixed barbaric crapshoot"?
"Anyone have any clue which direction the market is going to go tomorrow?"
Yes, tomorrow will start down, with a recovery into close with slight loss.
Friday, start up with better tha expected BLS report, with sell off late in the day as people realize 9.1% for the last year is not really much progress after spending a few trillion in QE.
Monday, down triple digits after a few EU bank downgrades and more EFSF squabble.
Note, I'm correct at least 50% of the time.
60% of the time, it works every time......
Agree with you Flakmeister! I don't like it when the big boys are on the same side of the trade.
I'll hold my SDS for now, but I do have an itchy trigger finger...
It is somewhat hedged by selling OTM calls against it... (The calls take care of the NAV decay)
this market is a fuggin rollercoaster
99.99% of all roller coaster rides come to a pleasurable end. This one will not.
Roller coaster with a Happy Ending!
Me ruv you rong time. Weeeeeeeee.
yes rollercosters are especially good if you have a thai prostitute jerking you off while you're riding
100% of roller coaster rides end at the bottom.
Just like so many wonderful nights that end in the gutter or with your face in a toilet. The Piper doesn't do volunteer work.
Hopium hangover is a real bitch!
Final destination wise :)
This roller coaster has been stuck upside down, emergency crews are on their way
"this market is a fuggin rollercoaster"
It's suppose to be. When they get done with you you'll be begging them to allow you to move what money you have left into their "distressed" real estate. (Which is actually overpriced and always will be).
Get it? The banks always win.
This market has failed to anticipate major events and major economic development. Its prediction power is seriously weak. I give it a C- . Probably due to the large population of lemmings out there.
or may be there is just toooo much money in the system
Or maybe this thing is as unnatural as a woman's feet that have been bound for fifteen years. This thing has been stunted to the point where it is no longer recognizable. A free market is when you give a girl 2 silver eagles for a blow job. That is capitalism. This is something out of a Vincent Price movie.
2 Silver Eagles ! Holy cripes ! Up here in the hills that'd get you two weeks of sleep overs and some cabin cleaning during the day. You must be from the big city.
Say "hey" to everybody in West Virginia. I've never been with a woman that had 13 toes.
Me either, you don't think I'd sleep with my cousin do ya?
hmmm....
Let me amend and correct your statement oh village idiot: "I've never been with a woman." Now the board understands you better.
A woman with 13 toes probably still has a vagina.
Just sayin'.
...or two.
ROTFL!!!
hahahha .. to funny
Too much digital fiat being conjured up and pumped in from the PTB to keep the phantasm looking real.
Yes I would not be surprised to see this market continue to ramp as that is as has been ordained. Trick is: What,s it worth in real money?
Too much imaginary money in the system, and way too much Hopium and equities floating along on unicorn fart gas.
Translation = QE3
What better way to reign in 2012 than QE3?
This is very, very bullish for MBS.
...buy crap now, sell crap for top dollar
during QE3. GENIUS!
Can we really consider QE3 without considering the eletction year of 2012? Won't any printing, public or private, be great political fodder for the Republicans? I know that Bachmann, Cain, Perry, Romney, etc. are not exactly political giants. But I would expect Ron Paul to be challenged by other candidates that toss their hat into the ring.
This is not like 2008 when The Fed was still understood by such a miniscule segment of the population. More and more light has been shined on The Fed in the past 3 years than almost anybody (including me) thought possible. I had a former co-worker send me an article on the true nature of banking the other day. This is a guy that in 2008 would have listed Bill Pay as his biggest banking concern. Too many sheep have awoken to what the shepherds are really doing.
I would love to hear thoughts on how QE3 ties into the election of 2012. I do think it will be an issue and it will make Bernanke's shenanigans with his shiny new Heidelberg more difficult than ever.
QE3 is pure BS, not gonna happen.
notice how bernank wouldn't say QE anything today...called them rounds of asset repurchase if I remember correctly
dupe
WestVillage 'How will QE3 tie into the 2012 election'?
Hmm lets see, do another MOST unpopular with the people action of bailing out the super wealthy which most all people identify QE actions to be, and rightfully so...nah not gonna happen.
I hear Obama supports the Occupy Wall Street movement. Bwahaha. He also supports the Bernanke Printing Press Association.
I was walking through the Financial District Sunday. I walked by Zuccotti Park. A little while later I saw a sign that read, "Amalgamated Bank supports AFT and the occupy Wall Street movement". I just started laughing. I don't knwo what AFT is but the only thing I could think was "WTF?".
I laughed when I learned OWS funds (donations) are stored in...a bank.
I suppose thats better than having a vagrant steal it all...I think...maybe...lol.
A distinction without a difference
Exactly ;-)
The last bank was shut down in a 100 block radius on the lower east side so the residents started a community bank/ credit union. GS in order to recieve thier share of the bailout could not be considered a investment bank. They had to become a commercial bank (even though they have zero commercial banks). Upon recieving the bailout money, by law GS had to re-invest a portion of the money into small banks, which they have been doing with an eye dropper. The lower eastside bank was actually a recipient of $5,000 of GS bailout money. Once GS learned that the bank was keeping the OWS money they took back the $5,000 and threatened the little back with legal.
AFT is the American Federation of Teachers, the second-largest such teachers union in the nation. The largest teachers union, the NEA, also supports OWS and has sent platoons of "educators" to some OWS rallies.
They dont teach that in school
Bullish for graph paper?
bullish for toilet paper
didnt citi come out with that VIX triangle officially worried piece just before this rally
Sure that wasn't Phil Jackson working the triangle?
I can't believe I just alluded to the NBA. I love that they are locked out. I have grown to hate that league. But I do feel bad for the regular people that count on their income from NBA games that are caught between the whiny brat thug players and the shithead windbag narcissist owners.
A worsening situation in the periphery of Europe
Just the periphery? When Greece goes belly up, this problem will immediately spread to the very heart of Europe, even its "strongest" economic nations.
It always cracks me up when technical analysts feel compelled to include some fundamentals....kind of like how my cat always feels compelled to cover her business in the litter box. (BTW, I've got no beef w/TA. Used it successfully myself; just if your a TA, stay true to your craft. Like TD said in the opening, fundamentals sure as hell aren't working.)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15550422
A Greek government spokesman confirmed on Wednesday that the referendum would only ask the public to vote for or against the bailout package, and would not ask about Greece's membership of the euro.
However, it is widely feared that a 'No' vote could nonetheless force Greece into a chaotic exit from the euro, and spread financial contagion.
Greece's next 8bn tranche of bailout money was approved last week by eurozone leaders, but only for payment in mid-November.
However, Reuters news agency reported a source on the board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as saying that the payment will be postponed until after the referendum - something that is not expected until January.
The Greek government has previously stated that it would run out of cash before then to fund its spending - which would include payments on its debts.
Funny stuff.
Even funnier :
EU's Barroso says EU stands ready to provide IMF with more funds
Referendum being blackmailed, big surprise, eh?
Democracy is alive and well.
The banks fail immediately and there will be the mother of all bank/liquidity runs if they hold back on Greek bail out funds. Can't see that happening.
My guess is they have a compromise already cooked up to G'Pap can save face AND the banks get bailed out even more! Just can't figure it out yet, but no doubt we will be shocked.
Zactly. That "bailout" money was going to be immediately funneled back into the eurotrash banks.
GPap's on the inside. The idea that he sprang this on them is laughable. Euro leaders had to know this was being orchestrated and so my guess is this whole dustup is being used to deflect attention from something else. What could that something else be? Hmmmm....Italian and French banks Im looking in your direction...
Time to go all-in short, but only if Robo is still bullish.
won't see him for awhile, he was last seen banging at MF Global's storefront window. they had his last $20.00 in which he intended to buy Lulu stocks with!
I think you are a little confused there, Sabra. He was actually seen heading to his local Wells Fargo branch to turn in the spare change he has been collecting. He was going to use it to buy a Lulu outfit that might help him earn some cash in West Hollywood. Robo understands capitalism and the free market.
You question whether Robo is still bullish? When hasnt he been?
i intend to remain short until joe terranova is whimpering like a little b*tch on live television. that's the capitulation i'm looking for. hehe...
That's like saying someone having a heart attack is having a blood flow
problem on the periphery of the heart.
...what the bots say is all that matters. If there was a meteorite that decimated US cities and the bots said its bullish...then it's BULLISH. Rational, fundamental and even technical overlay is now totally irrelevant. Skynet wins, game over
One comma out of place in 12 million lines of code creates a negative feedback loop that shuts down 40% of telephone network in the US. (Martin Luther King Day, 1989 as I recall)
The faith people have in computers (not to mention the Federal Reserve and its money pump) is charmingly naive. A computer is only as good as it programmer, and programmers make mistakes coding not to mention in deciding what's to be coded. A monetary authority based on the opinions of 12 people? Really? 12?
If we make it to the future, humanity will look back on these past few years with wonderment at how mankind could have been so friggin naive.