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Citi: "The Bear Market Rally Is Behind Us; We Anticipate A Move To 1,000-1,015"

Tyler Durden's picture


While we are the last to put much weight in the predictive power of technical analysis, lately it has become all too clear that the only thing more worthless than technicals is fundamentals. Which unfortunately means that with the lowest common denominator (and marginal price setter) in the market being robots, in turn programmed by 20 year old math Ph.Ds who only know charts, it may be time to revise our skepticism. Enter Citigroup's Tom Fitzpatrick, who together with Goldman's John Noyce, are the two best sellsiders in this particular field. In short, neither has much good to sayl in fact when it comes to near-term bearish sentiment, it will be hard to find someone as pessimistic as Fitzpatrick, even among the Janjuahs and Rosenbergs of the world. Citi's conclusion from a just released note should be enough to scare anyone who believes that the bear market rally started just about a month ago will persist: "While we respect the October monthly close on the S&P 500, we did not close above the 12 month moving average...we believe the bear market rally is behind us and anticipate a move towards the 1,000-1,015 target over the weeks and months ahead." And while charts will never be a good guide as to what words may come out of G-Pip's mouth next, with so much market action these days being purely backward looking, we would urge caution.

From Citi:

What to make of the monthly close on the S&P 500

  • October 2011 saw the largest monthly gain on the S&P 500 in almost 20 years (since December 1991)
  • We also saw a bullish outside month posted in October
  • Does that mean everything is fine and we are set to go higher? No
  • While the monthly close may seem constructive it alone is not enough. The charts below instead suggest that the downtrend has resumed and a move towards our 1,000-1,015 target area lies ahead

To all who say the market looks like either 2007 or 2008, relax: you are both right!

  • The price action over the past few months closely resembles that seen after the Oct 2007 high.
  • More recently the bounce in Oct reminds us of the bear market rally in the second Quarter of 2008.
  • That 2008 rally could not sustain above the 200 day moving average.
  • The same has been seen this time with the 200 day now coming in at 1,273.

...Throw in some 76.4 Fibonnaci, rinse and repeat

  • Held the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the May-Oct 2011 fall on the log scale chart which comes in at 1,294 (it is at 1,300 on the linear scale).
  • Triple negative divergence is now in place reflecting weakness in the bounce and warning of a turn down.
  • We also saw triple negative divergence at the high of the bear market rally in 2008…

  • Triple negative divergence was also in place when we failed to push through the 200 day moving average at the peak of the bear market rally in 2008

In other markets we see:

  • Key pivots holding on U.S. curves suggesting a trend of curve flattening ahead
  • The double top in U.S. 2’s-10’s in particular stands out as it targets 100 bps from a current level of 180 bps. We struggle to see how that target will be tested on the curve with rising yields and instead foresee a bull flattening suggesting a move towards the 1.25% area on U.S. 10 year yields (long term multi year channel base)
  • A worsening situation in the periphery of Europe (as per our daily charts yesterday)

In conclusion:

A worsening situation in the periphery of Europe (as per our daily charts yesterday) While we respect the October monthly close on the S&P 500, we did not close above the 12 month moving average. The charts above, our long term overlays (1910, 1940 and 1977) and the recent setups/developments across other asset classes makes it very difficult for us to abandon our medium term bearish stance on equities here.


Instead we believe the bear market rally is behind us and anticipate a move towards the 1,000-1,015 target over the weeks and months ahead.


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Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:35 | 1838751 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Am I being told to dump my SDS??

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:39 | 1838779 NewThor
NewThor's picture

As Euro markets bleed out, USA markets will rise. Maybe 10% to 15% more.


Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:46 | 1838805 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Euro markets were up today.  The DAX is now 20% off its October lows.  That doesn't seem like bleeding out to me. 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:53 | 1838842 Perma Bull
Perma Bull's picture

That's because the DAX is denominated in PAPER. PAPER is NOT BACKED by ANYTHING. Better get your phyiscal SILVER soon cos that price is gonna EXPLODE! QE to INFINITY!!!

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:44 | 1838979 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

look for a Dow/Gold ratio of 1 in the coming collapse that will mark the turnaround

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 19:20 | 1839117 ratso
ratso's picture

So, are we to believe that this is like 2008?? No, I don't think so.

Are we getting another announcement that THE SKY IS FALLING?  If all the announcements of impending doom were close to being true, the damn sky would have crashed and burned years ago - 2008 to be exact.

Do Citi and Goldman Sachs all of a sudden become the beacons of truth after having been such utter thieves and liars? No, i hardly think so.  Their assertions  are open to serious question based on nothing more than their all to often impeached source.


Wed, 11/02/2011 - 19:57 | 1839240 Libertarians fo...
Libertarians for Prosperity's picture



While we are the last to put much weight in the predictive power of technical analysis, lately it has become all too clear that the only thing more worthless than technicals is fundamentals.

Hold it right there, partner!

What about Turd Ferguson?  His ability to make 24 hour predictions is, quite frankly, a true blessing in our endless fight against Blythe and the "Cartel."  While I don't actually "play with paper" (I'm a stacker!), I have many friends who have used Turd's technical analysis and have become extremely wealthy. 

I think we all can agree that Tyler needs to be a little more careful in his generalizations. 

Ron Paul 2012  END THE FED!

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 20:14 | 1839289 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

smarter than the average bear

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:57 | 1838855 Shocker
Shocker's picture

The stock market is going to do whatever it wants, regardless of what is going on in the economy.


Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:49 | 1839022 peekcrackers
peekcrackers's picture

I see dead people

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 19:12 | 1839111 Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

Yeah, me too. The corpses are wearing Manolo Blahnik shoes and Saville Row suits, the pockets of which are stuffed w/uncashed bonus checks drawn on bankrupt banks....

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:48 | 1838820 Perma Bull
Perma Bull's picture

These prices are CHEAP. Wait till Bernanke turns on the printing presses - ALL real assets are going to EXPLODE. I predict S&P at 10,000, gold at 100,000 when Bernanke anounces QE3,QE4,.........,QE infinity!!!!!!!! HYPERINFLATION BITCHES!!!

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:19 | 1838927 FutureShock
FutureShock's picture

No the market will rocket up on QE and Gold money will move to equities. Great time to buy PM's but expect a dip short term if QE.  Logic would make sense that gold goes up but no, nothing is logical anymore.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:49 | 1839021 Pitchman
Pitchman's picture

Check out: Fibonacci Numbers - The Fingerprint of God & God Within


See how money, created out of thin air has exploded the worlds financial sector and, it can disappear as if it never existed:

Evaporation of Wealth on a Vast Scale: How $Millions - Trillions Can Disappear


Check out the fascinating interview on the evolution of corruption with Ms. Fitts.  And, If you're interested in the depth of the Rabbit Hole and the psychopaths within, see the "Dillon Reed and Company: And the Aristocracy of Stock Profits" link at the bottom of: The Looting of America: Happy Labor Day


Inflection Point

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 19:00 | 1839070 crazyjsmith
crazyjsmith's picture

Thanks for those links P-Man.  C. Fitts should be our next Secretary of the Treasury, she is amazing.  

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 19:14 | 1839113 Sorynn
Sorynn's picture

Great links.  Thanks.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 21:40 | 1839550 Manthong
Manthong's picture

I can identify with that.

Good stuff.. cover graphic a little risque, though.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:49 | 1838827 CPL
CPL's picture

You should apply to the Federal Reserve.  They are looking for smart kids like you.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:04 | 1838878 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well how do you figure that, NewThor?

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:11 | 1838910 CPL
CPL's picture

Shhhh, don't ask that question...Thor has spoken.

Thu, 11/03/2011 - 02:35 | 1839973 NewThor
NewThor's picture

I ain't the Expert at micro, macro and granular economic happenings in all places.

That's why I come to ZeroHedge. To learn from the best of the best.

O just figured that the Euro Zone looks set to tank first,

and Nostradamus says the same shit. Europe gets smashed, then America.

So with all this liquidity sloshing around, I thought that when Greece tanks,

shit loads of money will be yanked out of there and most of it will end up around the USA.

And that'll last for 3-5 days, then CRASH BITCHEZ! Right?

and seriously, CPL

Me go work for The Serpent?

You should brush up on your Norse Religion.

I die destroying the Beast, not working for it.


Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:35 | 1838974 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Yes that makes sense, stocks should rally as the dollar gets stronger...

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 19:21 | 1839135 Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

As Euro markets bleed out, USA markets will rise. Maybe 10% to 15% more.

Right, because every dollar (euro) taken out of one market frictionlessly shows up in its competitor.  You might want to check your logic there, friend.  Start w/the concept of discontinuity.   Then try studying up on "herding" and "panic."  And maybe if that doesnt upset your priors, consider "illiquidity." 

What happened to Old Thor?  He was more exciting, or at least not trite.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:43 | 1838792 Balmyone
Balmyone's picture

Sometimes this market seems like such a scam. 

Will Greece default already.

Anyone have any clue which direction the market is going to go tomorrow?

Will Friday's employment report make any difference.



Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:48 | 1838817 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Perhaps we need to develop a new word for this thing.  "Market" doesn't seem appropriate.  Calling this a market is like saying wrestling isn't fixed or calling a bowler an athlete.  I know people like to use the word "casino" but this doesn't seem right either.  if a casino operator ever tried this shit they would be getting the type of treatment DeNiro gave to the guys that were counting cards in Casino. 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:07 | 1838889 pauhana
pauhana's picture

I keep thinking of the way dolphins herd anchovies.  The little fish swim left, then dart right, but eventually get rolled into a nice, neat ball - the more efficiently to be eaten by the big fish.  Most trading days I feel like the anchovy.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:37 | 1838978 Dumpster Fire
Dumpster Fire's picture

I prefer the Orca's method of smacking the fish ball senseless with it's massive tail and scooping up the stunned sushi.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 19:00 | 1839075 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

How 'bout "fixed barbaric crapshoot"?

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:05 | 1838880 J 457
J 457's picture

"Anyone have any clue which direction the market is going to go tomorrow?"

Yes, tomorrow will start down, with a recovery into close with slight loss.

Friday, start up with better tha expected BLS report, with sell off late in the day as people realize 9.1% for the last year is not really much progress after spending a few trillion in QE.

Monday, down triple digits after a few EU bank downgrades and more EFSF squabble.

Note, I'm correct at least 50% of the time.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:48 | 1839015 Aguadulce
Aguadulce's picture

60% of the time, it works every time......

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:04 | 1838876 Mugatu
Mugatu's picture

Agree with you Flakmeister!  I don't like it when the big boys are on the same side of the trade.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:23 | 1838936 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

I'll hold my SDS for now, but I do have an itchy trigger finger...

 It is somewhat hedged by selling OTM calls against it... (The calls take care of the NAV decay)

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:35 | 1838752 Triple A
Triple A's picture

this market is a fuggin rollercoaster


Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:40 | 1838782 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

99.99% of all roller coaster rides come to a pleasurable end. This one will not.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:42 | 1838786 NewThor
NewThor's picture

Roller coaster with a Happy Ending!

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:49 | 1838823 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Me ruv you rong time.  Weeeeeeeee.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:07 | 1838888 theMAXILOPEZpsycho
theMAXILOPEZpsycho's picture

yes rollercosters are especially good if you have a thai prostitute jerking you off while you're riding

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:49 | 1838824 Let them eat iPads
Let them eat iPads's picture

100% of roller coaster rides end at the bottom.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:58 | 1838858 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Just like so many wonderful nights that end in the gutter or with your face in a toilet.  The Piper doesn't do volunteer work. 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:05 | 1838883 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Hopium hangover is a real bitch! 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:55 | 1838844 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Final destination wise :)

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:38 | 1838980 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

This roller coaster has been stuck upside down, emergency crews are on their way

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 19:06 | 1839089 Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

"this market is a fuggin rollercoaster"

It's suppose to be. When they get done with you you'll be begging them to allow you to move what money you have left into their "distressed" real estate. (Which is actually overpriced and always will be).

Get it? The banks always win.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:35 | 1838753 Zola
Zola's picture

This market has failed to anticipate major events and major economic development. Its prediction power is seriously weak. I give it a C-    . Probably due to the large population of lemmings out there.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:38 | 1838774 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

or may be there is just toooo much money in the system

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:50 | 1838836 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Or maybe this thing is as unnatural as a woman's feet that have been bound for fifteen years.  This thing has been stunted to the point where it is no longer recognizable.  A free market is when you give a girl 2 silver eagles for a blow job.  That is capitalism.  This is something out of a Vincent Price movie. 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:13 | 1838918 billhilly
billhilly's picture

2 Silver Eagles !  Holy cripes !  Up here in the hills that'd get you two weeks of sleep overs and some cabin cleaning during the day.  You must be from the big city.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:19 | 1838928 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Say "hey" to everybody in West Virginia.  I've never been with a woman that had 13 toes. 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:24 | 1838941 billhilly
billhilly's picture

Me either, you don't think I'd sleep with my cousin do ya?


Wed, 11/02/2011 - 19:50 | 1839224 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Let me amend and correct your statement oh village idiot: "I've never been with a woman."  Now the board understands you better.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 19:59 | 1839244 Blano
Blano's picture

A woman with 13 toes probably still has a vagina.

Just sayin'.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 20:10 | 1839279 billhilly
billhilly's picture

...or two.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 20:20 | 1839305 nmewn
nmewn's picture


Thu, 11/03/2011 - 07:48 | 1840163 peekcrackers
peekcrackers's picture

hahahha .. to funny

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:55 | 1838848 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Too much digital fiat being conjured up and pumped in from the PTB to keep the phantasm looking real.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:06 | 1838886 mendigo
mendigo's picture

Yes I would not be surprised to see this market continue to ramp as that is as has been ordained. Trick is: What,s it worth in real money?

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:07 | 1838887 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Too much imaginary money in the system, and way too much Hopium and equities floating along on unicorn fart gas.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:35 | 1838754 RealitiveMind
RealitiveMind's picture

Translation = QE3

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:41 | 1838784 NewThor
NewThor's picture

What better way to reign in 2012 than QE3?

This is very, very bullish for MBS. crap now, sell crap for top dollar

during QE3. GENIUS!

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:55 | 1838847 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Can we really consider QE3 without considering the eletction year of 2012?  Won't any printing, public or private, be great political fodder for the Republicans?  I know that Bachmann, Cain, Perry, Romney, etc. are not exactly political giants.  But I would expect Ron Paul to be challenged by other candidates that toss their hat into the ring. 

This is not like 2008 when The Fed was still understood by such a miniscule segment of the population.  More and more light has been shined on The Fed in the past 3 years than almost anybody (including me) thought possible.  I had a former co-worker send me an article on the true nature of banking the other day.  This is a guy that in 2008 would have listed Bill Pay as his biggest banking concern.  Too many sheep have awoken to what the shepherds are really doing.

I would love to hear thoughts on how QE3 ties into the election of 2012.  I do think it will be an issue and it will make Bernanke's shenanigans with his shiny new Heidelberg more difficult than ever. 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:07 | 1838893 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

QE3 is pure BS, not gonna happen.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:44 | 1839003 caerus
caerus's picture

notice how bernank wouldn't say QE anything today...called them rounds of asset repurchase if I remember correctly

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:45 | 1839004 caerus
caerus's picture


Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:09 | 1838901 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

WestVillage 'How will QE3 tie into the 2012 election'? 

Hmm lets see, do another MOST unpopular with the people action of bailing out the super wealthy which most all people identify QE actions to be, and rightfully so...nah not gonna happen.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:15 | 1838922 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

I hear Obama supports the Occupy Wall Street movement.  Bwahaha.  He also supports the Bernanke Printing Press Association. 

I was walking through the Financial District Sunday.  I walked by Zuccotti Park.  A little while later I saw a sign that read, "Amalgamated Bank supports AFT and the occupy Wall Street movement".  I just started laughing.  I don't knwo what AFT is but the only thing I could think was "WTF?". 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:21 | 1838931 nmewn
nmewn's picture

I laughed when I learned OWS funds (donations) are stored in...a bank.

I suppose thats better than having a vagrant steal it all...I

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 19:26 | 1839146 Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

...a bank...better than having a vagrant steal it

A distinction without a difference

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 19:32 | 1839165 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Exactly ;-)

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 21:36 | 1839539 kingwallop
kingwallop's picture

The last bank was shut down in a 100 block radius on the lower east side so the residents started a community bank/ credit union. GS in order to recieve thier share of the bailout could not be considered a investment bank. They had to become a commercial bank (even though they have zero commercial banks). Upon recieving the bailout money, by law GS had to re-invest a portion of the money into small banks, which they have been doing with an eye dropper. The lower eastside bank was actually a recipient of $5,000 of GS bailout money. Once GS learned that the bank was keeping the OWS money they took back the $5,000 and threatened the little back with legal. 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:51 | 1839033 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

AFT is the American Federation of Teachers, the second-largest such teachers union in the nation. The largest teachers union, the NEA, also supports OWS and has sent platoons of "educators" to some OWS rallies.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 20:00 | 1839252 peekcrackers
peekcrackers's picture

They dont teach that in school

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:35 | 1838756 wombats
wombats's picture

Bullish for graph paper?

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:25 | 1838943 deebee
deebee's picture

bullish for toilet paper

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:37 | 1838763 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

didnt citi come out with that VIX triangle officially worried piece just before this rally

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:00 | 1838864 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Sure that wasn't Phil Jackson working the triangle? 

I can't believe I just alluded to the NBA.  I love that they are locked out.  I have grown to hate that league.  But I do feel bad for the regular people that count on their income from NBA games that are caught between the whiny brat thug players and the shithead windbag narcissist owners. 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:38 | 1838775 navy62802
navy62802's picture

A worsening situation in the periphery of Europe

Just the periphery? When Greece goes belly up, this problem will immediately spread to the very heart of Europe, even its "strongest" economic nations.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 19:32 | 1839166 Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

It always cracks me up when technical analysts feel compelled to include some fundamentals....kind of like how my cat always feels compelled to cover her business in the litter box. (BTW, I've got no beef w/TA. Used it successfully myself; just if your a TA, stay true to your craft. Like TD said in the opening, fundamentals sure as hell aren't working.)

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:38 | 1838776 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

A Greek government spokesman confirmed on Wednesday that the referendum would only ask the public to vote for or against the bailout package, and would not ask about Greece's membership of the euro.

However, it is widely feared that a 'No' vote could nonetheless force Greece into a chaotic exit from the euro, and spread financial contagion.

Greece's next 8bn tranche of bailout money was approved last week by eurozone leaders, but only for payment in mid-November.

However, Reuters news agency reported a source on the board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as saying that the payment will be postponed until after the referendum - something that is not expected until January.

The Greek government has previously stated that it would run out of cash before then to fund its spending - which would include payments on its debts.

Funny stuff.

Even funnier :

EU's Barroso says EU stands ready to provide IMF with more funds

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:44 | 1838800 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Referendum being blackmailed, big surprise, eh?

Democracy is alive and well.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:24 | 1838940 Mark123
Mark123's picture

The banks fail immediately and there will be the mother of all bank/liquidity runs if they hold back on Greek bail out funds. Can't see that happening. 

My guess is they have a compromise already cooked up to G'Pap can save face AND the banks get bailed out even more!  Just can't figure it out yet, but no doubt we will be shocked.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 19:38 | 1839186 Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

there will be the mother of all bank/liquidity runs if they hold back on Greek bail out funds

Zactly.  That "bailout" money was going to be immediately funneled back into the eurotrash banks.

GPap's on the inside. The idea that he sprang this on them is laughable. Euro leaders had to know this was being orchestrated and so my guess is this whole dustup is being used to deflect attention from something else.  What could that something else be?  Hmmmm....Italian and French banks Im looking in your direction...

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:40 | 1838781 The4thStooge
The4thStooge's picture

Time to go all-in short, but only if Robo is still bullish.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:48 | 1838816 sabra1
sabra1's picture

won't see him for awhile, he was last seen banging at MF Global's storefront window. they had his last $20.00 in which he intended to buy Lulu stocks with!

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:04 | 1838877 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

I think you are a little confused there, Sabra.  He was actually seen heading to his local Wells Fargo branch to turn in the spare change he has been collecting.  He was going to use it to buy a Lulu outfit that might help him earn some cash in West Hollywood.  Robo understands capitalism and the free market. 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:10 | 1838904 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

You question whether Robo is still bullish? When hasnt he been?

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:11 | 1838906 greased up deaf guy
greased up deaf guy's picture

i intend to remain short until joe terranova is whimpering like a little b*tch on live television. that's the capitulation i'm looking for. hehe...

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:42 | 1838788 MobBarley
MobBarley's picture

That's like saying someone having a heart attack is having a blood flow

problem on the periphery of the heart.



Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:43 | 1838795 Lady Heather...UNCLE
Lady Heather...UNCLE's picture

...what the bots say is all that matters. If there was a meteorite that decimated US cities and the bots said its bullish...then it's BULLISH. Rational, fundamental and even technical overlay is now totally irrelevant. Skynet wins, game over

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 19:48 | 1839218 Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

One comma out of place in 12 million lines of code creates a negative feedback loop that shuts down 40% of telephone network in the US. (Martin Luther King Day, 1989 as I recall)

The faith people have in computers (not to mention the Federal Reserve and its money pump) is charmingly naive. A computer is only as good as it programmer, and programmers make mistakes coding not to mention in deciding what's to be coded. A monetary authority based on the opinions of 12 people? Really? 12?

If we make it to the future, humanity will look back on these past few years with wonderment at how mankind could have been so friggin naive.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 20:53 | 1839430 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

If what you say is true, then why, after such a furious rally in October, are we still down more than 100 S&P points from the high? With the trend pointing down? For that matter, why did we drop 250 points from the high in the first place? Hmmm, if Skynet (or whatever you want to call the market manipulators) were in control, would this have been allowed to happen? Would the market have tanked in 2008-2009? Interesting.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 22:54 | 1839743 Cluelesscitizen
Cluelesscitizen's picture

it's not an analogous situation. there are more way more players now with EU banking risk of imploding, downgrades, it's a SOVEREIGN crisis everywhere. GLOBAL, interconnected, And "leaders" are pulling strings to help other countries in order to save their own. You have these momentous calls scurrying to do something that would marginally help or delay something else.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 22:59 | 1839754 Cluelesscitizen
Cluelesscitizen's picture

wonderdawg, kind of non sequitur, but it's not an analogous situation to 2008 really. there are more way more players now with EU banking risk of imploding, downgrades, it's a SOVEREIGN crisis everywhere. GLOBAL, interconnected, And "leaders" are pulling strings to help other countries in order to save their own. You have these momentous calls scurrying to do something that would marginally help or delay something else.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:45 | 1838803 semperfi
semperfi's picture

These people can no better predict the market than I can predict when my wife will be in the mood. I call BS.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:34 | 1838967 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

So, that b like nevah?

- Ned

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:55 | 1839052 secretargentman
secretargentman's picture

Just a tip... try about two weeks after she's been really cranky. 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:50 | 1838809 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Yep, short the CIT outta this pig.  Glad they finally figured it out.

Same with PMs.  Short it all!


Well, all except TVIX!

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:06 | 1838884 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

What the hell happened to metals in the past 30 minutes?  Gold and silver just jumped way up. 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:40 | 1838988 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Vapor volume happened, might not be pretty when traders wake up

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:51 | 1838826 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

here is how shady the wording is: "we believe the bear market rally is behind us and anticipate a move towards the 1,000-1,015 target over the weeks and months ahead"...


So is it "behind" as in support or "behind" as in over? Vagaries of vague language misconstrued and refried....oh and the charts, they were from 2008 and got mixed up with the present day; ergo, it's all bullish because bullish don't heed no funduhmantals.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:52 | 1838838 mynhair
mynhair's picture

behind as in over




dead as ODummer's re-election hopes

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:55 | 1838841 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

so then it's all peachy-f'in-keen-n'-rosy-BULLISH! ;p

SP 850 is my calcs...


future's so bright up ahead-- SPLAT!

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:07 | 1838890 mynhair
mynhair's picture

windshields are a bitch......

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:50 | 1838831 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

I wish France would get downgraded already. There were rumors of that this morning... where are they now?

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:50 | 1838833 CashCowEquity
CashCowEquity's picture

capital is fleeing Europe and heading here and into PM' long as BOND $$ doesnt flow into equities we should decline in earnest around New Yrs 2012 and flop for 5-6 months to a low around 800-900 spx.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:58 | 1838835 LMAO
LMAO's picture

Say what? A bit over the proverbial TOP I would think. 

Look at some old charts take an overlay to new ones and consequently coming to a conclusion:

This time it's not different! So central planning, market manipulation, FED machinations, etc. Don't matter?!

Surely the bearded monkey that goes by the name of Banana Ben PhD can't be that stoopid!

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:51 | 1838837 oldmanagain
oldmanagain's picture

I, humbly, agree with the chart interpretations. I, even more humbly, believe these interpetations are backed up by the current disasterous economic situation, and  the absurd politics of the Kochs.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:55 | 1838846 mynhair
mynhair's picture




Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:02 | 1838872 nmewn
nmewn's picture


We just can't prove it.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:08 | 1838897 mynhair
mynhair's picture



Drag out his dog, if you have to.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:11 | 1838912 nmewn
nmewn's picture

#Occupy his doghouse!!!

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 19:13 | 1839112 wisefool
wisefool's picture

Send the Arkansas State Troppers to Escort the Cain accusers directly to the MSM outlet of their choice.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 19:27 | 1839154 nmewn
nmewn's picture

I'd love to see

For a host of reasons ;-)

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:55 | 1838845 caerus
caerus's picture

i must admit i was somewhat piqued by that first sentence...nevertheless i still feel that the charts suggest a imminent selloff, absent extraordinary measures...

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:56 | 1838851 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Yes, I hear some unicorns do still shit Skittles....

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:09 | 1838899 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Why can't we ever find a unicorn that shits Mike 'n Ikes?  I love Mike 'n Ikes.  That would be so cool to find that unicorn. 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 19:16 | 1839121 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

You must really be a village idiot if you want to eat Mike 'n Ikes from a unicorn's ass.......................

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:55 | 1838849 dpanah
dpanah's picture


Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:56 | 1838850 drbill
drbill's picture

"the only thing more worthless than technicals is fundamentals." Priceless!!

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 17:59 | 1838863 pleseus
pleseus's picture

Technicals mean nothing.  This is a headline driven market.  Up one day down the next. 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:00 | 1838865 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

have you got a picture of Bernanke's keyboard in the Federal Reserve trading room? i understand there is no minus sign key. he hangs a picture of a chart of the S&P over his desk, which has something your chart doesn't have, a RIGHT SIDE. at the top it says GDP target.

he enters a number, a really big one, into the buy S&P futures input selector, and he just keeps hitting the repeat button until his chart on the monitor looks like his picture.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:01 | 1838867 mynhair
mynhair's picture

George Soros is THE John Galt.

Imagine having that much power to meld mush-minds to your view.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:10 | 1838903 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

And yet he will still die like all the rest of us.  With any luck that day won't be far off. 

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:01 | 1838871 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

The bear market may be behind you, but what can you do with your new found wealth?



Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:09 | 1838902 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Hookers & blow.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:13 | 1838917 CPL
CPL's picture

Hookers and blow.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:16 | 1838924 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Blow your own hookers.  I don't swing that way.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:02 | 1838873 kengland
kengland's picture

I'm sure these arsholes NAILED the 1080 bottom and went all in are are just now fading. Another group of shorts to launch from the canon when the fuse gets lit.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:03 | 1838874 caerus
caerus's picture

i offer this absurd technical suggestion...the ES is tracing out the right shoulder of an impressive h&s (or triple top if you prefer) pattern that goes back to seems that in the markets, as in life, it's all about timing...

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 19:35 | 1839176 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Yes.  As it also is currently on the monthly chart since the March 2009 ramp.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:07 | 1838891 rumblefish
rumblefish's picture

Clearly CITI is unware the groupon IPO is the moon Alice!

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:31 | 1838959 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Is this the same Groupon that recently sent me "deep" discounts for High Colonics in the Mt. Kisco area??

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:07 | 1838892 Racer
Racer's picture

oh bum, just when I was looking forward to much shorting it....

will  have to go long now Citi have said to go short

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:09 | 1838900 devo
devo's picture

The (low) volume says it all. Computers trading with one another to keep prices up. (Human) momentum traders are likely getting slaughtered by the 1&0s. War of the Worlds?

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:24 | 1838915 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Fundamentals and technicals will not be what unhinges this 'market', an event will.


Wed, 11/02/2011 - 20:48 | 1839415 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Funny thing is that with fundamentals, you never see it coming.  With technicals, you usually have a hint.  Things generally just don't crash overnight.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:11 | 1838908 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Wherever we goin, we'll be there a while. 10y yeeeeeled at .90 ?

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:22 | 1838935 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

It lives/

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:11 | 1838909 simon says
simon says's picture

it all depends on G-pap and Europe

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:11 | 1838911 Hedge Fund of One
Hedge Fund of One's picture

Are we sure that he was talking about $SPX to 1000 or was he really talking about $DJI? :-)

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:11 | 1838913 chump666
chump666's picture

Yes, the market is getting ready to short.  That means 'everyone' is getting ready to short. Or simply, all Aug/Sept/Oct supports will be blown to hell.

Last session sell from highs was bearish, despite the Fed and as for the G20?  Forget it.  The Mer-Kozy combo shock and awe flopped. 


Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:14 | 1838921 mynhair
mynhair's picture

I resent these Shitty morons calling a hopium high a 'bear market rally'.

Just insults my sensibilities.

A 'beer market rally' I could live with.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:18 | 1838926 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The unicorns eat Hopium, and are even shitting pyramid piles of gold dubloons...and you CAN eat em too! Pour liquidity on them and they turn into filet mignons, perfectly grilled.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:16 | 1838923 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I ran this a couple days ago, thought Id put it up again for anyone who is interested in the FEMA/FCC big internet power grab black box Chinese style in a few days. Something to ponder.

Huge Internet Power Grab November 9th 2011 By Fema/FCC - YouTube

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:23 | 1838938 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Is this less bad or more bad than Janet Incompetanto scanning FacePlant and MyButt for dissatisfied 'Mericans?

Heck, when Yellowstone cuts loose, we will need that national takeover of the airwaves.




Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:28 | 1838950 nmewn
nmewn's picture

"The border is very secure."

Same day as the local cops take down a billion dollar smuggling by the same cartel that got guns from...oh, well, you get the idea.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 23:35 | 1839810 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

odd bit a friend called we were talking about a football game, and he was watching the game on TV and i was watching the ticker on Yahoo. it was nearly half time, and he was telling me, theres still time left, my team can score, and i said, no the half is over already. there may have been one or two minutes difference. he thought how can that be, that live TV is slower than the internet.

in the digital age EVERYTHING is spooled. TV is manipulated to allow the advertisors more time, and for other reasons i suppose, and if someone says something they aren't supposed to say, like maybe the President could be edited live online.

the problem isn't necessarily the on off switch its this spooling editing process that goes on, while the public THINKS they have LIVE interaction, they do not. in the case of the football game there was no reason to spool the ticker.


and we all know that football games are edited on the fly, which is what made Roone Arledge and MNF such a hit, but now with spooling capability the job is a lot easier. spooling capability relies on storage and memory speed. but of course we have known about video tape for years. yet people continue to believe they are getting (real time) the truth, and its anything but.



Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:21 | 1838932 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Has anyone actually looked at those charts.    I would have better luck, SURFING seal island off of the coast of South Africa.


     Buy this guy :

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:26 | 1838942 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Shark Week!

Get that Yen dude.

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 18:29 | 1838953 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Well done. +1

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