Citi Downgrades Global Growth And Expects EFSF 'Grand Plan' Disappointment

Tyler Durden's picture

Citi's Economics team downgraded global growth expectations once again, expecting 3.0% this year (versus 4.0% last year) with more aggressive downgrades next year to only 2.9% (from 3.2% expectations last month and 3.7% two months ago). Growth revisions were downgraded for every major global economy as expectations move with Goldman's coincidentally-timed discussion of stagnation (also tonight) with advanced economies cut more than developed though Eastern Europe saw the most significant reductions. They note that 'the recent pace of GDP forecast downgrades is among the greatest of the last ten years' and extends the recent run of lower forecasts to four months-in-a-row. In a secondary note, Willem Buiter and team also pour cold water on market expectations for the EFSF pointing out, as we have done for a few weeks now at every suggestion, that all the different options have their shortcomings and are unlikely to be implemented quickly.

From Citi's September 2011 Global Economic Outlook and Strategy:


Global growth prospects continue to deteriorate quickly, both for advanced economies and emerging markets.


This month, we are again cutting our 2011-12 GDP growth forecasts for many countries, including the Euro Area, UK, Japan, US and Canada, with a modest downgrade for China and sharper cuts for Eastern Europe, Singapore, Hong Kong and South Africa.



We expect early sovereign debt restructuring in the Euro Area, and for the Euro Area overall to slip back into recession in coming quarters. The following table outlines progress so far on the initial increase:



Against this backdrop, Citi’s Macro Strategy team are cautious on risk
assets and bullish core fixed income. Citi equity strategists believe
that markets are oversold, but that stock prices are unlikely to move
convincingly higher until there are clearer signs of stability in
economic activity and profits growth. Citi rate strategists expect lower
yields and flatter curves in core EMU markets and the UK. Citi FX
strategists expect the USD and JPY to gain.


Source: Citi

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CheapKUNGFU's picture

all yer grand plans are belong to us... make your time...


ok, so we buy at the open tomorrow right? heh

UP Forester's picture

Ja, bullish!

Then, Bundestag votes NEIN!  Sie kannen Deutsch geld nicht haben!

Result:  PMs, Bitchez!

covert's picture

the future belongs to those who are ambitious enough to think.


Yamaha's picture

Yes Pandit can say more since he doesn't have a large brokerage attached.  At the first of the year they expected to and with a 20% decline.  Maybe they will be the only correct projection on the street.  Hope they stay above $1 to see their sucess!

European American's picture

Mr. Durden, do you ever sleep? How about a social life? Got a girlfriend?

Sequitur's picture

There are multiple Tylers. Do us a favor and stay in Europe.

gwar5's picture


Bad news: Tyler is a girl... 

Good news: She's a lesbian!!

Bad news: she weighs 300 lbs...

Good news: she can lose weight!!

Bad news: she likes Doritos.... 

Good news: Not really -- none of the above, just kidding. But have been told Tyler will do anything for the right person. So, your best course is to post a naked pic of yourself for your avatar and hope for the best. Good luck!




gwar5's picture

CITI is late to the global downgrade party. Must be an example of how Peter Orzag's bailed out new employer shows us how "less democracy" and more central planning has wored so darned well for the global village.





chump666's picture

c'mon europe gives us more chaos and confusion.  looks like players piling up on mini future shorts on rallies.  don't dispoint you crazy f*ckers...


Sequitur's picture

May 9, 2011: C undergoes a 10 to 1 reverse split.

Sep. 28, 2011: C closes at $25.92.

True value: C is worth $2.59 a share (backing out reverse split).

Conclusion: Pandit, your bank is a steaming pile of shit. Go fuck yourself.

reader2010's picture

Motherfuckers running wild.

Fips_OnTheSpot's picture

There's no panic! Move along!

Baaah! Baaaah!

Outlaw Of The Wasteland's picture

Can't wait to add my citigroup umbrella to my enron coasters, bear stearns drink cozies, lehman head covers, wamu paperholder.......well, you get the picture.

Mr_Wonderful's picture

Should be a green day, at least until 2 PM.

James T. Kirk's picture

Macroeconomics is just a lot of hypnotic bullshit. Everyone has an angle on what is happening, no one is consistently correct, and in the ensuing chaos more and more of our wealth and freedom is eroded. If world or US economic GDP "growth" is 3% or 2.8% or 2.2%, or whatever, flaws in basic measurement methods and criteria render the differences to be statistically insignificant. If my flatscreen TV produced in China costs 50% less than it did 5 years ago, and my grocery bill for food produced in North America has increased by 50% in 5 years, and the price of increasingly scarce oil has violently fluctuated by 500% over the past 5 years, and during the same time the dollar has fallen by 20% as compared to a basket of currencies that are ALL based on thin air, how could any sane person validate these GDP predictions as being relevant to anything meaningful? If there is a correlation, it is causative and not predictive, because the university trained economists that have been indoctrinated into this crap tend to believe it, and thus tend to act on it. Macroeconomics is nothing more than a pseudoscience that provides a pretext for fascism, a creeping fascism that has taken about 100 years to cripple the US. No wonder we are in so much trouble.

Mr_Wonderful's picture
Bob Chapman's International Forecaster.
Wednesday edition, 28 September 2011. 36 pages.