This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Citi Near Term Stock Forecast: 9300 In The DJIA; 985 In The S&P; Sees Chart Analogs To Pre-World War Periods

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Earlier today we presented one of the 12 forecasts by Citi's FX Technical group which saw gold reversing recent drops, and soaring to $2400 by H2 2012 and far higher later on. Naturally, one argument is that this is simply Citi talking their books, and that one should be short when a bank is pitching a long. Of course, that is a valid interpretation. On the other hand, it is also possible that the recommendation is nothing less than a contextual recommendation of the what the big picture would look like if the bankers' grand plan falls into place. And the plan is simple, and has been discussed extensively before here: namely, to push the market to that critical triple digit threshold at which point Congress and the population (most certainly including the "99" which just happen to have 401(k) and other pension funds) will beg Bernanke to print. However, the traditional resistance has been the market discounting precisely this, and refusing to sell knowing that when the market drops, it will eventually rise: a traditional Catch 22. Which is why stocks in the US have lagged the correction in China and Europe for as long as they have - this has not been a decoupling as is widely misunderstood; what it has been is a delayed realization that Bernanke will not print until market discounting fails, and stocks flush. Then and only then will "salvation" come from Saint Ben. Which is actually precisely what Citi is preaching. In the next two charts, we see its recommendations for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P, as dropping to 9300 and upper 900s in the S&P, at which point the Fed will have no choice but to intervene. It is in this context that the lift off of gold will take place, and where the previously stated targets of north of $2400 are quite feasible. Yet, ignoring the price of gold, it is Citi's ultimate conclusion that is most disturbing: the bank finds eerie similarities in the current stock market formation with previous charts, both of which eventually led to World Wars...

From Citi:

We still expect 960-1,015 in the S&P 500 and 9200-9400 in the DJIA to be seen in the coming months

  • The 1966-1978 compared to 2000-2012 dynamic remains our number one choice of the 3 Equity overlays. The backdrop of an Equity market collapse (1973-1974); a surging Oil price (1973-1974); a sharp fall in economic activity and rise in unemployment (1973-1975) and a collapse in housing activity (1973-1975) all have a “strong resonance” with some of the dynamics we have seen in the 2007-20 09 period. In addition the weaker USD and very easy Fed policy seen then also “resonate.”
  • While we have already had a high to low fall in the DJIA of 19% off the May 2011 peak this overlay suggests that the ultimate move may be closer to 28% “peak to trough” and take us close to 9 300 in the first half of 2012 If so then a sub 1,000 move on the S&P 500 would also be likely (Possibly towards 960). If this is in fact the best overlay it would suggest that the 9,000 area could be the platform for an eventual bull market again within about 5 years (After a lot of choppy price action first- i.e. A trading market).

And it gets worse:

These other 2 overlays paint a less favourable picture overall.

  • Choice 2: Has less history than the other 2 (4 years versus 11 or so) but fits very well in terms of the timing and pattern of the collapse and recovery. Price action incorporates the banking crisis of 1906-1907 and its aftermath.
  • Choice 3: Compares the collapse of the technology bubble with the 1929-1932 Industrial index collapse. The 1938-1939 recovery came with the abandonment of the then version of mark to market accounting and the establishment of the uptick rule.

And the scariest bit:

Apart from price action some reasons not to like these are. 1.
They both suggest that the 2009 lows would be re-tested by 2014-2016 2.
They both preceded / led into World Wars 1 and 2 respectively.

So, charting our way right into war?

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:34 | 1980776 moskov
moskov's picture

Just wanting to say Bitchz....that's all

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:36 | 1980786 Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

Look out below...

BREAKING!!! The Obama Chia Pet is now available.
https://www.americanchia.com/?rtag=chiaobama&

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:41 | 1980809 moskov
moskov's picture

WTF

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:59 | 1980863 redpill
redpill's picture

Technical gobbeldygook.  Might as well call Ms. Chloe.

The key flaw with technical analysis is that it largely ignores the fact that things happen for a reason, and not just because they have happened similarly before.  You can find numerous historical charts that appear to correlate with recent trends, but making the leap to thinking it is therefore predictive requires a suspension of disbelief that someone who is attempting to preserve their capital in the modern wasteland of investing has no business taking part in.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:45 | 1981043 SGS
SGS's picture

So that puts Citi (C) at about .21 cents?

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 20:01 | 1981095 s2man
s2man's picture

Yup.  Look!  I found two fractals which are similar.  This implies...

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 00:01 | 1982043 caerus
caerus's picture

speaking of fractals...

those who wish to indulge the lucky lucky chicken bone technical trading community should observe the set up in bidu...2011 has resulted it what may be yet another ubiquitous h&s formation, with the oct right shoulder of the 2011 right shoulder flirting with completion... short term support is at 105ish imo...short interest is relatively small atm...

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 20:10 | 1981135 macholatte
macholatte's picture

Do the Citi guys have any kind of track record that gives them any credibility?

Are they just another pump-n-dump outfit?

What makes them better than the Goldman crowd or anybody else?

Here's my prediction, and you can bet your life savings on this:

The market is going to go up, it might go down first, but it will eventually go up. I don't know by exactly how much or when this will happen but I'm absolutely positively sure it will be at some time in the future.

OK?

 

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 21:02 | 1981393 Mactheknife
Mactheknife's picture

>What makes them better than the Goldman crowd or anybody else?

Because when the global banking cartel who own C, GS, JPM, the Fed, the Bank of England and many more, runs out of ways to fleece the world, they figure out ways to buy the right politicans to start wars and then they fund both sides. You can take this as a threat from them. And don't think for one second they can't deliver.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 21:24 | 1981478 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

A Citi forcast like this is worrisome for bears. We're starting to get the typical MSM scare tactics that always precedes a bottom. Next we'll get Mohamed El-Erian spouting gloom and doom. It's not that what their saying is off it's when they get air time and front page space you know the down turn is about over. They do this so lots of people will be selling as the insiders buy into a bottom they know is coming. One Citi post is not enough but if Goldman, Cramer and El Erian get face time cut your short positions. I will.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 21:48 | 1981553 Mikehy
Mikehy's picture

I get why institutions would try to get people worried near a bottom, but not following why the media would join them. As annoying as the media can be it takes quite a jump to imagine that the media has a vested interest in scaring money into banking hands

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 21:54 | 1981576 Mactheknife
Mactheknife's picture

Well....who do you suppose owns the main stream media?

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 22:01 | 1981597 Mikehy
Mikehy's picture

And all of the employees in the media? And somehow all those employees have managed not to let the cat out of the bag all these years? I am all for conspiracies, but at some point there has to be some limit on the size of the "them"

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 03:49 | 1982369 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Media employees have to please their bosses, or get fired for some made-up fictitious reason.

Only a few companies control most Anglo media. They don't even have to speak the rules; the submissive employees 'know' what they must do.

There are a million unemployed kids dreaming of media jobs ready to kiss arse and replace them, if any current big media employees do not behave.

And then once the media employee is unemployed, on the margin, and he tries to 'blow the whistle' ... what is he or she? ... he or she is now a blogger, one that you probably haven't heard about, one more voice mostly overwhelmed by the major media hurricane.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 00:23 | 1982093 scratch_en_sniff
scratch_en_sniff's picture

Well thats right, things do happen for a reason, well spotted, but when it comes to markets there is always a certain dynamic in which that reason or chain of events unfolds, and its all reduced to a simple series of prices on the charts for easy access, or indeed some biased, easily followed narrative in a history book. As a thought experiment; say you had absolutely no idea of history, only an ability to read charts, and one day decided you wanted to learn some actual history, but to save time you only wanted to learn about key events in history. Well you could look at a chart for any particular year and identify extreme pricing events, or where the market seems to be exhibiting abnormal behaviour... and surely enough if you went to the library and found some material for the corresponding year or era, you would certainly find defining moments.

The charts just show you how it all unfolded in the market, or how the market expressed itself at the time, and if the market is always right for the most part, then why not look at what it was telling people at another point in time?

But the key flaw with your swagger, is that you think the people who look into the market past actually proclaim certainty over our future, when really, they are for the most part aware that the actual dynamic of reality is a tough thing to capture, through literature or charts, and are really just drawing our attention to key points. In a nutshell, like a lot of psychopaths that post here, you take the brave step of assuming that people are thick. You have seized this as just another opportunity for you to pontificate with your correlation is not causation brain farts, haven’t you? “Look at me, I have realised that i exist on a bleak random planet, aren’t i fucking great!“

Get over it, there is not one serious technical analyst in the world who thinks they have hard proof that something is going to happen. Out of sympathy for them I would recommend they put a disclaimer on they’re work “Please note, we are not trying to predict the future and are quite aware, being educated adults, of the whole correlation is not causation phenomenon, so be a good boy and don’t piss your pants”.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:48 | 1980836 RobD
RobD's picture

LOL Cha...Cha....Chea! Love the "Yes we can" on the side.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:57 | 1980870 Matt
Matt's picture

Chia Obama: "Representing Peace, Hope and Prosperity" Wow, really?

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:45 | 1981041 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

It's covered in green shoots.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 20:03 | 1981106 s2man
s2man's picture

That was good, Rex. 

+1 script is broken for me about 25% of the time, lately. :-S

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 23:21 | 1981927 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

But wait....there's more!

Get TWO chiaobamas for the price of one, and we'll throw in a thermonuclear war ABSOLUTELY FREE!

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:47 | 1981051 blu
blu's picture

Onion parody maybe? No?

Well then -- what the actual fuck.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:49 | 1980839 HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

it is all about the chicks. and dow 6666 http://hedge.ly/gFWVSm

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:18 | 1980933 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Too kind! SP = 850! Anything higher is pure market manipulation disregard for funduhmentals and structurals and laws of physics and good taste.

PS silver at 53-58; oil at 112-128. Everything else is pure casino rigging. 

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 20:00 | 1981091 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

Another world war because of greed, corruption, and stupidity.  Swell.   What the hell happens when we run out of this world to war with? 

Aliens must think this is one of the top 10 scariest places in the universe to visit.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:36 | 1980783 falak pema
falak pema's picture

-30% is that awl....? gee thats nada...I thought this would fall to S&p = 500.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:58 | 1980876 r101958
r101958's picture

Problem with these comparisons is that the underlying fundamentals are completely different now. The current situation is much worse. Government is 15 t in debt, Fed has no more ammo, the people are broke and/or over-leveraged and resources are peaking or over the peak. This is the problem when just comparing charts...not much else is considered.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:09 | 1980919 redpill
redpill's picture

It also ignores the reality that most stock trading is done autonomously by high frequency trading algorithms and goosed on by global "coordinated actions" of central bankers on a day to day basis.  There is nothing real about this market, it has become inherently unpredictable.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 23:16 | 1981908 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

The FED may be outta ammo...but Americans are all stocked up.  Record gun sales this holiday season.

"What do you want for Christmas, little girl?"

"Why, Santa, all I want for Christmas is a pink Bushmaster ACR.  Please, Santa?  I've been very good this year..."

 

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:06 | 1980906 redpill
redpill's picture

Actually that last downward leg sort of looks like the Citigroup stock price over the last 5 years.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:22 | 1980959 fuu
fuu's picture

<golf clap>

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:50 | 1981060 blu
blu's picture

It will be S&P at 500 in today's dollar valuation -- but dollar devaluation will have it at 5,000 by then.

Bullish!!1! You're selling physical PM and going long now, right? Good man!

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:36 | 1980790 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

What is Carter Worth predicting these days?

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:40 | 1980792 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

mm hmm

 

 

They may be right

They may be wrong

You may be right

I may be sorry

But just don't let confirmation bias burn your ass...

 

I twisted Billy Joel lyrics very badly, and I'm not even saying I agree or disagree (how could I even know?), but since when is Citi an authority of prognosticative reliability on anything, whether PM prices, equity index levels, or anything else in or of the future, for that matter?

Is the same Citi that had such talented chartists/analysts that it is ward of the state (...errr, nation)?

 

My non-technical, non-chart derived, ass meter says that the economy now officially sucks, it will get worse as deleveraging continues for YEARS (which in and of itself, will add more velocity to the deleveraging already under way), that The Bernank will be soon unveiled for the false wizard and charlatan that he is, and everyone should buckle up.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:41 | 1980813 kengland
kengland's picture

I agree completly. To take it to another level, why is this nonesense brought to ZH for consumption when on any given day that ZH discredits everything coming out of shops like this? Inconsistant to say the least

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:46 | 1980826 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Just to make sure our pharma longs which sell anti-anxiety meds, don't miss on their top line

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:56 | 1980865 tmosley
tmosley's picture

The joke's on you Tyler, we're all off our meds!

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:04 | 1980902 Rainman
Rainman's picture

yeah, now we're all fukked up on Mountain Dew

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:24 | 1980968 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Speaking of "pharma longs," there is a massive shortage of medications (mainly generic ones) in the United States as of now.

I am confident many of you already know of this.

Strange times.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 23:07 | 1981876 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

They're in the Siberian pharma-vault and or the FEMA camps

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:54 | 1981079 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Oh, so... now I know why a Tyler told me recently it was med time.

I'm with tmosley though, no pills for me.

Speaking of meds, I do believe it's beer-thirty.

hasta la bye-bye!

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 01:20 | 1982210 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

To hell with pharma - Long distilleries!

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:23 | 1980840 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I've found that one of the hardest things for me in life, generally speaking, is to remove emotion from how I view the world and to try and detach myself from how things should be (as in investing my emotions in the progress I see in rectifying wrongs and injustices).

I sometimes succeed, but more often than not fail, in doing so.

I'd love for real money (as in things having inherent value) to literally bring down an economic system built on Ponzinomics, where colored toilet paper passes as the object of desire based on proclamations of its 'full faith and credit' or other such nonsense, and for a real system not based on Ponzi schemes mostly derived from fractional reserve 'banking' practices to exist, whereby real and true talent and work are are rewarded (found frequently in free market systems, which bring maximum benefits to the largest % of the population). This would leave NO role for Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan, unless they reorganized completely and were weened off of the teat of the state/FedReserve.

Will it happen?

I dunno.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:40 | 1981024 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

Den of thieves, carpenter.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:37 | 1980793 fonzanoon
fonzanoon's picture

75% of the people on this site have the S&P at 900 by next week. 2014 is light years away.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:54 | 1980855 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

My puts expire Monday so sooner than later pleas.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:39 | 1981016 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture
Amazon.com: Dow 36000: The New Strategy for Profiting from the Coming Rise in the Stock Market [Paperback]
November 14, 2000***
"Every stock owner should read this book."
-- Allan H. Meltzer, professor of political economy, Carnegie Mellon University

* A radically new way to determine what stocks are really worth
* Why the Dow is still poised to zoom
* Why the financial establishment is wrong
* Why stocks are actually less risky than bonds
* How to build a maximizing portfolio and invest without fear

"One of the hottest business books around. . . . It has wonderfully clear explanations of financial theory [and] excellent advice on general investing approaches."
-- Allan Sloan, Newsweek

"It may sound like headline-grabbing sensationalism, but the scholarly and punctilious authors make a persuasive case . . . the book is highly readable and witty."
-- Arthur M. Louis, San Francisco Chronicle

"Dow 36,000 is a provocative and well-written treatise that cannot be dismissed. . . ."
-- Burton G. Malkiel, Wall Street Journal

"Dow 36,000: Everything you know about stocks is wrong."
-- Jim Jubak, Worth magazine

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:37 | 1980795 kill switch
kill switch's picture

Roll out the red carpet to the cellar!!! Has anybody thought about how a DRONE LANDED IN IRAN WITHOUT A SCRATCH?? THREE POINT,,,NICE SETUP NEOCONS

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:31 | 1980998 iDealMeat
iDealMeat's picture

Apparently all you have to do is sit outside with your laptop and wait for the "Found New Hardware Device" to pop up..

Double click on it.  And land it..

 

duh..

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 20:02 | 1981099 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

LOL

More likely they went outside after lunch and saw it sitting on the tarmac, where they all channeled Steve Martin and Dan Akroyd's old SNL skit, "What the hell is that?"

Tinfoil sites claim some Chinese gave Iranians access to their back-door. Spy vs. spy vs. spy, all with the same Fabian paymaster.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 22:09 | 1981627 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

+1

Updates available, bitchez.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:35 | 1981008 InconvenientCou...
InconvenientCounterParty's picture

almost too easy, wouldn't you say?

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:38 | 1980800 CORNGUY
CORNGUY's picture

Ron Paul

 

 

 

Please save us.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:11 | 1980924 prains
prains's picture

too short
too old
too alone

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:35 | 1980986 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

When you are eating cat food in an internment camp, the ghost of Ron Paul will gently & politely tell you "told you so, bitch."

It'll haunt you.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:44 | 1981039 blu
blu's picture

Except you'll just assume it's his ghost.

No it will be the old man himself, in a FEMA camp, along with all the other trouble makers.

Gulag bound. It's gonna be a really shitty century if this crap keeps up like it is.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:46 | 1981046 redpill
redpill's picture

I think his wirey frame makes him look diminutive but he's actually 6 feet tall.  

And more importantly his positions on liberty are gargantuan.

 

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 23:07 | 1981875 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

All I know is that his integrity and knowledge of our Constitution towers over his competition.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:15 | 1980941 Manthong
Manthong's picture

But only after S&P 750, please..

This market needs a real bitch slapping.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 23:01 | 1981855 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

Careful....you are going to get Jumbotron all worked up over that heinous "save us" comment....

Jumbo hates Ron Paul......when I think about it, I think Jumbo hates himself!

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:42 | 1980804 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

I withhold judgement until this analysis is approved by Nouriel "Barbarous Relic" Roubini.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:40 | 1980805 bill1102inf
bill1102inf's picture

gold... $1100 when SP 985

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:50 | 1980844 fourchan
fourchan's picture

short the market down, ride the panic and dilution up in gold all at the same time.

my ounces are just fine today, they laugh at paper notes doing their dastardly deeds.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:27 | 1980978 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

Was that Tungston you bought Sir?

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:28 | 1980983 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

War errrrrrr wot iz it gud 4

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 00:08 | 1982056 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Business

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 20:32 | 1981252 defencev
defencev's picture

Let us just juxtapose both of the CITI predictions. The Gold of 3000 US means total collapse of Dollar. Under present circumstances it simply means total collapse of everything. Having Dow 9000, however, means that we are still alive and kicking. Something tells me that it is another BS from CITI right in the times where , as it seems, nobody can predict anything...

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:41 | 1980811 Dr. Kananga
Dr. Kananga's picture

Lets say the pattern holds true--what about scale?

Given the size of the economy today (real and shadow), I'm guessing a mere WWI or WWII type event won't do at all--we'll probably have to declare war on Mars.

Evil bastards, those martians.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:55 | 1980857 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Even though it may look like more data, comparing two charts that proceeded to war is two data points. He is extrapolating based on two data points. You would be laughed out of introductory statistics for that.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:59 | 1980877 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

That is exactly what Krugman was calling for.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 22:58 | 1981847 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

Krugman IS a martian!

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:20 | 1980944 Dr. Kananga
Dr. Kananga's picture

I see by the -1 that ZH has an intergalactic readership.

Junk me all you want--I will never submit to our Martian overlords. Never.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:43 | 1980814 GCT
GCT's picture

Good I will buy more gold at 1100 hehe!

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:43 | 1980816 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

War of who against who?  

Over what?

With what outcome?

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:48 | 1980834 Jena
Jena's picture

Yes.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:57 | 1980868 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Is this not obvious to anyone that cares to look? TPTB have turned up the heat under the Middle East and it just waiting for it to come to a boil. It's going to be over Oil. TPTB have done everything in their power to limit America's Oil resources so we are dependent on Middle East oil. What better way to have the sheep bleating for war than a really good crisis like gas lines for $10 a gallon gasoline and Diesel fuel. Once the war starts TPTB will open up the oil fields and flood their military and industrial complex with the proceeds from this now cheap oil so millions of people can be killed. 

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:03 | 1980896 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Learn to speak Farsi and Chinese. 

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:26 | 1980976 Tompooz
Tompooz's picture

.. learning languages is an investment that broadens the mind. 

...and a job with the NSA or CIA

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:16 | 1980942 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Lindsay Williams told Alex Jones no war until Oct 2012 and Alex Jones believed him.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:26 | 1980974 IrritableBowels
IrritableBowels's picture

Alex Jones is a zionist shill.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 20:36 | 1981267 roccman
roccman's picture

lindsay williams thought he belonged to the in crowd...

 

 

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 22:56 | 1981841 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

I believe this timeframe could be right.  Syria has to be neutralized first...otherwise, it would get a bit messy.  TPTB also have to figure out how to diffuse the mess they have made with (nuclear) Pakistan.  These things can take some time to clean up!

And then there is always the fact that Fall '12 is just the PERFECT opportunity to keep ol' Barry in the Oval Office.

See how this works?

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 20:38 | 1981277 roccman
roccman's picture

psst - drill baby drill doesn't work

we peaked in 1973 (september to be exact)

but it is about oil

peak oil IS being defined by economic collapse - the outcome was never gonna change so the power brokers adjusted the timing to their benefit through ARMs in the 2003-2007 timeframe - JUST AS OIL WAS PEAKING.

think about it

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:57 | 1980869 blu
blu's picture

Pretty much.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:02 | 1980892 crazyv
crazyv's picture

Exactly, all these rants about the WW1 &WW2 should be best left Newt Gingrich- faux intellectualism.

The Cold War is a misnomer- where the super powers collided it was a pretty hot war except it was either a super power fighting a proxy of the other super power (Afghanistan and Vietnam) or fights via proxy Angola, Somalia, Central America etc. Expect to see more of those.

The other thing you need to initiate a war is proximity- its one thing for Germany to invade Polland its an entirely different thing for the United States to exhange ICBMS with China or Russia. I just don't see any country exchanging nuclear missiles over who controls the oil reserves of the Sudan or any other resource rich country. Those wars will be fought by proxy- supporting one set of rebels versus another set.

Oh did I mention I stay awake worrying that we might have refight the Mexican-American war again.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 22:49 | 1981799 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

Iran is being poked with sticks continually by US and Israeli black ops, if not also UK.  The plan is to drive Iran to the brink until they "fire the first shot" of some sort so that the West can then unleash all hell.

But Syria must be neutralized before then, which is exactly what is happening as we speak.  Assad is toast...Western forces are on the border of Syria and doing God knows what already.

But, Russia is VERY PISSED at the US right now, and a massive cold war with them is developing rapidly.  China is also not a happy camper.  This is, ultimately, all about Russia and China, and the juggle for world domination of resources and superpower status.  Iran is just a pawn to draw them in.

Count on early-mid fall for war.  I would wager a bet, but my 401k's way down and what's left has to go into food storage.

Enjoy the "peace" while it's here...Christmas will be very different next year...the bankers will make sure of it!

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:48 | 1980832 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I dont like to be too trollish but anyone who has even a smattering knowledge of TA knows that this is weak very weak. Essentially he is overlaying charts and discussing hypothetical macro themes.

Some real quantitative measures might be useful.

We have better guys than this who contribute for free to zero hedge.

I can tell this person was not a math or science major and he cant be more than two years out of college. And he is sell side.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:27 | 1980981 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Yeah. There is nooooo chance of war... /sarcasm off.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:49 | 1980838 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Glenn Beck on his Radio Show this morning was predicting a coming World War. He said that TPTB use them to reorder the World as they reset their economies and unload debt.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:56 | 1980864 blu
blu's picture

The man must be a genius.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:00 | 1980881 Rainman
Rainman's picture

And that mandatory draft will really reorder the number of po folk too.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:01 | 1980889 redpill
redpill's picture

It's a great way to reduce unemployment!

/Krugman

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:13 | 1980934 prains
prains's picture

and population

Hitler

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 22:40 | 1981765 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

Pillsbury Doughboy is always soooo late to the game!  Bet he listened to Lindsey Williams' interview on Alex Jones' show the other day....

Becky is a seriously confused individual...he can't make up his mind on ANYTHING!  Cracks me up to hear him "presciently" give his audience his prophecies when WE AT ZH HAVE KNOWN THIS STUFF FOREVER AND A DAY!

Honestly, I think he's schizophrenic....one day he is George Washington or Thomas Paine, and the next he is Netanyahu's bitch!

But he does cry well....

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:49 | 1980841 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

...and sometimeZ the bear gets you...

more lithium for citi, stat!

what the hell is this?  the day citi releases the entries to the halloween creative writing contest?

don't count on citi-fuking-corp for your D00M, BiCheZ!

insist on the real thing: 4HorsemenD00MTM on zeroHedge!  call now for zHTM4HorsemenTMPajamaGramTM avaiabilityLOL!!!!

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:38 | 1981019 itstippy
itstippy's picture

The analysis in question is from the esteemed Citi FX Technical Group.  It's got color charts.  It's been spellchecked.  It's put together by guys who wear suits, have expense accounts, and make six-figure incomes.

4HorsemenDOOM on zeroHedge is crass, vulgar, full of gramatical errors, has gratuitous images of breasts, and is endorsed by "slewie the pi-rat".

Choose your informational source carefully, dear readers.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:59 | 1981090 IndicaTive
IndicaTive's picture

I like Slewie's posts. Avatar + Name = really cool fucking T-Shirt BitCHez!

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 20:33 | 1981250 itstippy
itstippy's picture

Ah yes, but which do you TRUST?

* Well-written and presented bullshit from suave, impeccably mannered gentlemen from Citi

or

* Strangly-constructed offerings from the irreverent (and occasionally grossly fucking offensive) Mr. Pi-Rat?

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 20:19 | 1981178 fuu
fuu's picture

I didn't realize Kurtzman was Namibian.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:52 | 1980848 Reptil
Reptil's picture

nah.. self fulfilliing prophecies. wars are planned. and so is this crisis.

they've pulled the same trick twice before, that's why it's simular.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:43 | 1981035 InconvenientCou...
InconvenientCounterParty's picture

Banksters don't want you to realize that the same "benefits" of a world war can be achieved by eliminating 95% of the financial "industry".

Belize would be an appropriate location for quarantine. Plenty of insects to eat.

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 01:07 | 1982182 Reptil
Reptil's picture

and mudpie!

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:54 | 1980854 FranSix
FranSix's picture

Your gold chart antecedent match may be the 1974 price move:

http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2011/12/gold-set-to-break-out/

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:55 | 1980858 blu
blu's picture

Bullish!

Oh wait. Maybe not. Never mind.

Um. BTFD. Or something.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:56 | 1980861 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

After silver makes me rich, I'm going to trade some for my relatives' farmland.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:56 | 1980862 fonzanoon
fonzanoon's picture

Everyone knows you end up at Citi after you have been bounced out of the other big names. They are the worst. They are like the fat chick at the party at 2am when you are hammered and can't find the girl you came with. Yes lets take their advice to heart.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:02 | 1980894 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Dude...fat chicks are like mopeds....fun to ride, you just don't want your friends to see you on one. 

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:11 | 1980923 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I draw the line at BBW.

BUT ANYTHING LESS THAN BBW STATUS IS FAIR GAME WHEN I AM DRUNK.

oh and under 50 too....ok 55.... ok what the fuck.......let me help you with that walker.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 23:56 | 1980979 fuu
fuu's picture

Is BBW some sort of ratings levels? Is that after A- with a positive outlook?

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:18 | 1980949 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

What happened to the girl you came with?

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:56 | 1980866 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Go long body bags......

and Hazmat suits....just sayin'

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:03 | 1980898 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

YES!!!

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:58 | 1980871 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

 The 1970s economy had the potential for way more traction from monetary stimulus. In fact 1974-8 wages were spiraling higher, employment was much higher, house prices were climbing and GDP growth was much better (and debt was way, way lower). That (and energy) is how inflation took hold. 

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:18 | 1980930 blu
blu's picture

Indeed. How can anyone seriously think we're going to have across-the-board inflation when we're so broke we can't even afford our own housing?

The experience of the last 100 years was a serious one-time fluke, a gift from the universe. The oil is all but gone.  We will never again repeat the growth experienced from 1950 to now. We're going back to under 2 billion people living on the power of the sun and we're going to do it starting last year. If that it's rip-roaring deflation then I don't know what is.

Give it a decade. You're not going to recognize the place.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 18:57 | 1980872 max2205
max2205's picture

I don't listen to Citibank.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:00 | 1980878 random shots
random shots's picture

So...long?

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:04 | 1980901 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

You can't ridicule these monkeys when they disagree with you and then herald them when they agree. Particularly when the "analysis" is this flimsy.

SPX could very easily test 1,000, but you've got to have more backing that up then a randomly chosen chart overlay.

If SPX goes to 1,000 and EUR goes to USD parity, gold prob goes to SPX parity.

And if the fed prints and sends gold to $3,000. SPX goes up 100%+ too.

Be consistent.

Personally I was lightening up on SMDD today at 20.50. I'm out of half of my position. Market could go down more, or rip your face off rally. It's about odds and upside/downside. At 1,260 it's all downside, at 1,100 theirs decent upside. Trade around it.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:06 | 1980911 pebblewriter
pebblewriter's picture

Kind of old news... but I'm glad to see others on the same page.  I've been blogging about this since May, and I'm sure there are many others who've noticed it. 

There are several analogs that lead to the same conclusion, although folks should realize that a (SPX) move to 985 also completes a huge head & shoulders pattern that targets 785 or so. 

The 2011 = 2007/8 analog is working out very nicely, despite divergences from expectations around days 125 and 144.  And, one I found just last week is the Mar-July 2011 = Oct-Dec 2011 fractal.  It indicates a rise to around 1255 in the next few days, followed by a drop to 983.

http://pebblewriter.blogspot.com/2011/12/another-fractal-update-dec-14-2...

 

 

 

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:11 | 1980918 Thunder_Downunder
Thunder_Downunder's picture

"the bank finds eerie similarities in the current stock market formation with previous charts, both of which eventually led to World Wars..."

 

Oh, come on!

 

Give the powers that be a little credit. WWI and WWII were marketing disasters. The fact that we're still talking about them shows just how badly that message went down. We will never again see a world war.

 

However, that's not to say that America's Liberation Army won't continue to have a busy couple of years. I'm sure the ALA will be working hard on many fronts.

 

Oil right across the globe is being repressed by evil communists or the evil-er religious zealots. Did you know that Oil in Iran isnt allowed to vote? That's children are shipped to China to build iPad knockoffs, in sweatshops with only the lowest grade ramen for food?

 

Liberating oil, and prosecuting a preemptive "War on Terror(ifying gas prices)" is what we're gonna see more of...

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:13 | 1980932 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Who cares. The world will be in WW3 before then. And America will be in revolution/civil war before then too.

2014 is like the year 10 000.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:14 | 1980939 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

Shity Bank, Yeah! They Know SHIT!!!

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:20 | 1980951 IrritableBowels
IrritableBowels's picture

"These other 2 overlays paint a less favourable picture overall."

Indeed.  I'd rather see 9 ladies dancing than 10 dudes hop-frogging each other any day.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:36 | 1981011 Dr. Kananga
Dr. Kananga's picture

I was wondering who else noticed that detail.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:20 | 1980956 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

There is one thing i am absolutely 100% positive about, is that if the market goes to where Citi says it is, it will be puremotherfuckingcoincidence.  They do not fucking know and nor does anyone else.  It's biased to go south and I'm positive about that, but that's all I got and didn't have to lift a finger and will be just as accurate as these idiots.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:23 | 1980958 css1971
css1971's picture

I think this is just a shakedown.

I think it'll be back up 4% tomorrow. That's how we're rolling at the moment.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:29 | 1980966 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

"Apart from price action some reasons not to like these are. 1.
They both suggest that the 2009 lows would be re-tested by 2014-2016 2.
They both preceded / led into World Wars 1 and 2 respectively."

Ha, what morons! Everybody knows the world is going to end next December!

 

 

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:32 | 1981001 Philligan
Philligan's picture

anyone have a link to the source?

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:36 | 1981009 Stagflationary
Stagflationary's picture

US interest rates are so sharply negative at the moment that there's no need for all this theorizing. The market is already at about 900 if you'd plug in long term average rates. 

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:38 | 1981017 AmazingLarry
AmazingLarry's picture

If it's not in the charts it's not in the charts. Do I need to show you a chart that shows this?

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:39 | 1981020 Madcow
Madcow's picture

in hyper-deflation, does a single dollar bill eventually have infinite value?  that would solve our problems.  get everyone down to owning just a single dollar - and then make that dollar worth $100Billion.  We'll all be rich !  even the panhandlers.  

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:40 | 1981026 blu
blu's picture

The more I think about this prognostication from Citi, the more I suspect it is some kind of plant for Bennie to use later.

He'll print to avoid yet another war in Europe.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:41 | 1981029 SecondAdamWon
SecondAdamWon's picture
Keynesian economics will save the world's crashing economy - that is what the Economist is saying in the below article. I am asking for help. They site historical facts from the 1930s that support claims that go against everything I have learned from the libertarians and Austrians (see for e.g., Tom Woods video talk on Mises titled "Why no one ever heard of the great crash of 1921" the answer he gives is the goverment got the heck out of the way of the free market and reduced spending). I just don't know the history well enough but my gut is that Economist is TOTALLY engaging in historical revisionism. Since many of the the people who comment on ZH are ++++++++ proficient in the area of reflective thought and always seem to know more than the lemmings making 6figs at the likes of MSNBC etc, I ask: can someone with some years under their belt and/or knowledge of the history post 1929 look at Economist article and rebut the facts the claim support the notion austerity and cutting government spending is disasterous? SORRY to just randomly stick this into an unrelated ZH post - I deserve the 25plus negative ratings I am sure to receive. But this sort of cuts to the heart of the Bernak/Keynesian arguments...

 

http://www.economist.com/node/21541388

Lessons of the 1930s There could be trouble ahead In 2008 the world dodged a second Depression by avoiding the mistakes that led to the first. But there are further lessons to be learned for both Europe and America...
Wed, 12/14/2011 - 22:28 | 1981715 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

Well....I'm sure you are certainly not trying to enlist the thoughts of a homemaker like me who just dabbles in learning generalities in economics...I know much more about geo-politics than money.  But I have read things like Woods' "Meltdown", and the one fact that stands out to me is that Keynesian intervention turns the more docile ups and downs of the true free market cycle into gargantuan booms and busts.  The beginning/continuation of interventionism simply built on the ponzi scheme that is the economy we are familia with now.  It created a temporary false reality that eventually must experience the law of gravity.

Also, other forces were at play during that time....the oil industry was just beginning to really hum, and began to provide lots of capital into the economy....not to mention that Bretton Woods helped out by forcing the USD as the reserve currency, as the petro-dollar eventually.

The simplest rebuttal would probably be that the Keynesian actions kicked the can down the road, but the pain to be experienced would be inevitable!

Hope you get an answer that is better than this one...good luck and good on you for trying to debate and refute on the blogisphere!

Thu, 12/15/2011 - 01:51 | 1982266 SecondAdamWon
SecondAdamWon's picture

"...Keynesian intervention turns the more docile ups and downs of the true free market cycle into gargantuan booms and busts."

"...the Keynesian actions kicked the can down the road, but the pain to be experienced would be inevitable!"

Thanks, counselor! I think you stated a perfect rebuttal with lucid brevity. Wish I knew history better. The bad guys always seem to rewrite it. 

Here's Woods talk on "Why You Never Heard of the Depression of 1920" on Mises for anyone interested

 http://mises.org/media/4325/Why-Youve-Never-Heard-of-the-Great-Depression-of-1920

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:42 | 1981030 jomama
jomama's picture

i think i could make more accurate predictions using a fucking dartboard at this point...

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 19:49 | 1981055 Silversinner
Silversinner's picture

Gold will be as always "last men standing"

With paper fire burning and the only so called

solution adding more paper(fuel) to the

same fire will work out just fine.

Whether the whole shithouse explode or

implode Gold and silver will always be 

excellent mediums of exchange.

I am glad I owe them and happy to buy more

on big pricedrops.

Never ever regreted one coin or bar of PM I ever bought.

 

 

 

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 20:02 | 1981103 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

I love the chart overlays but I seriously doubt history has seen the kind of downturn we are about to see when the Euro falls to pieces ...

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 20:36 | 1981107 NuYawkFrankie
NuYawkFrankie's picture

Re. Citi... sees Chart Analogs To Pre-World War Periods

Not content with being a slow-death canker on humanity, not happy with being one of the Usual Suspects in wrecking the world's economies, Citi now condescends to inform us (couched in the most polite of economic circumlocutions, of course) that next up on the menu is WW3 - no doubt to balance its books and those of its brethren... well ain't that just precious!

 

 

Hate to inform you Citi, but we've already Been There - too many times - Done That and Got the bullet-ridden T-Shirts.

So Citi, before introducing you to Madame Guillotine, take your Chart-ANALogs & kindly stuff 'em up your sphincter.

Thank You & Have a Nice Day.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 20:11 | 1981140 navy62802
navy62802's picture

Yep, Citi anticipates some sort of Lehman type event. Combined with their $3400 target for gold, this makes perfect sense.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 20:32 | 1981251 Freebird
Freebird's picture

When Lehman shtf, Citi put out an almost identical scenario in their weekly "analysis" & forecasting. From memory gold to 2200 within the year & the same equity charts & overlays. The way it was written at the time, it appeared the author/s were either on drugs or about to jump from the window. Must search the archives, saved for prosperity...

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 20:42 | 1981255 Freebird
Freebird's picture

Maybe their right this time as it looks as though we get the bloodbath that was deferred

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 20:36 | 1981272 pakled
pakled's picture

"Then and only then will "salvation" come from Saint Ben"

Best part of this post is Travis's analysis. A point brought home to me recently, while observing Europe on the brink, is that NOT printing will start to appear irresponsible.... even by those who know the eventual consequences!

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 20:47 | 1981328 Escapeclaws
Escapeclaws's picture

I don't agree with the chart voodoo either. But I'm struck by how what we are seeing now has echos in the pre-WWI period.  Namely, the whole guilded age thing, J Pierpont Morgan, John D Rockafeller, the beginning of the income tax and the Fed, and the lead-up to WWI.  Basically, everyone had formed alliances and posed their troops and armaments.  This is exactly what we are seeing now in the mideast (rather than Europe). The system is incredibly fragile with a horrendous downside.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 20:48 | 1981332 chump666
chump666's picture

More cool doomy stuff from Citi...good stuff!

 

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 20:50 | 1981343 chump666
chump666's picture

HFTs are taking this market on low liquidity.  The only thing supporting this markat at this point in time is HFTs.  F*cking wonderful...

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 21:03 | 1981398 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Stock market crash!

Bichez!

(overdue)

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 23:37 | 1981976 chump666
chump666's picture

100%  commodities crashing harder than equities!

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 21:50 | 1981508 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

We're going alot lower than Dow 9300.. Citi wishful thinking.  Going to be hard to make money in that flatline mkt... better take up fishing or something.

Big declines and big up move eventually..2013? The key is to make it to the otherside with capital and mind intact..if its possible.  To the survivors come the spoils.

It's a healthy process, the Financials grew like weeds and need to be pulled out.  From top to bottom of the entire Fincl 'industry'.  Pre sarbanes levarege 10x1.  were at 30x1. 

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 22:10 | 1981631 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

take the 180 degree of "666", and you get "999", satan's 2x symbolic marx of approval,...

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 22:31 | 1981727 LeverShort
LeverShort's picture

BHO pulled the trigger when he offed UBL.  Gutsy call bitchez

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 22:55 | 1981827 jtz5
jtz5's picture

As soon as the market penetrates 1000 on S&P, watch these mf'ers ban 3x short ETFs like FAZ. That would be their style....unlimited upside, but we can't have any downside. This market is such a joke. I'm just bitter that my short bet hasn't worked yet, and these ETFs decay like crazy.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!