Citi Predicts Gold At $3400 In "The Next Two Years", Potential For Move As High As $6000
Following today's margin call anticipating, liquidation-driven rout in gold, the weak hands are, as the saying goes, puking up blood. Which may not be a bad thing - after all, sometimes a catharsis is needed to get people away from potentially toxic paper exposure which very likely has been hypothecated repeatedly via the same channels we discussed last week when exposing the MF Global-HSBC "commingled gold" lawsuit. But what about the future? Well, nobody can ever predict it, but at least we can sometimes look at charts in an attempt to glean a pattern. Which is why we present the just released slide deck from Citi's FX Technicals group titled "The 12 Chart of Christmas" which has some blockbuster predictions about the coming year, chief among them is without doubt the firm's outlook on gold which they see at $2400 in the second half of 2012, and moving "toward $3400 over the next 2 years or so." So for those looking at today's price action, consider it an opportunity to roll out of paper exposure and into gold, because the more deflationary the environment gets, the more eager the central planning cabal will be to add a zero (which in our day and age of primarily electronic money can be done with the flip of a switch) to the end of every worthless piece of monetary equivalent paper in circulation. And that's a 100% certainty.
From Citi:
While we remain cautious on Gold in the near term and believe that we could correct lower towards $1,600 and possibly re-test the $1,550 area we continue to believe that the bull market remains intact. As with the Equity market we believe that 2012 may be reminiscent of 1978 when Gold rallied nearly 50% off the 1977 close. Such a move would likely put Gold in the $2,300-2,400 area in the 2nd half of 2012.
On a longer term basis we expect even higher levels and target a move towards $3,400 over the next 2 years or so. We are not yet on board with the idea of a move with the same magnitude as seen in 1970-1980 when the last spike in Dec 1979-Jan 1980 saw Gold almost double in price as Russia invaded Afghanistan. Such a dynamic would suggest a move above $6,000 but we prefer to take a more conservative stance and look for a move similar to that seen without that final event driven push at the high which was a “blowout top” in Jan. 1980.
Many more charts coming shortly....
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I heard that many times before! BS!
I heard it many times before too. As in gold's going to $700! 1000! 1500! 1625!, and to hear each of these predictions lambasted as the height of lunacy. Roubini will soon be so tweeted by goldbugs he will turn yellow and feathery with rage. So yeah, gold is going nowhere but up
Dow 36,000!
Suspicious timing - especially if we apply the Tyler's's's's's's' Goldman Prop desk theory!?
well paper has not decoupled from physical and silverbugz got MONKEYTORCHED today
I'm not sure what that is but it sounds bad. My stacks appear unfazed, however, and are just as shiny as they were yesterday.
But an ounce of silver buys less than it did last week.
Or am I wrong on that?
If you're looking for something shiny may I suggest silica?
...... why don't you try pyrite, otherwise known as trolls gold?
I have composed a draft letter to the white house expressing my concerns about this slow recovery. I just wanted to run it past you so you can tell me what you think:
"Dear Mr President,
I am writing to you as a concerned citizen. Despite my unwavering support for your administration and the values it stands for, I am increasingly agitated about the sluggish pace of this economic recovery.
I am worried that congress is cutting spending too much and too fast and that this is damaging economic growth and I strongly suggest that without further fiscal stimulus we could be headed for a double dip recession. What is the government doing to promote growth and create jobs? With due respect, I want answers and will not be satisfied with smooth political talk.
Yours Sincerely,
....."
Just wanted to run this by you guys and see of you had any suggestions. I know it's pretty harsh but I'm really concerned that our government simply isn't doing enough to support this fragile recovery.
Coordinated Chicago/Shanghai margin hike in 5, 4, 3.....
"I know it's pretty harsh but I'm really concerned that our government simply isn't doing enough to support this fragile recovery."
Yes..., that is a bit too harsh. BTW.., I think you better get that thermometer up your butt quick, cause you are very sick!
Put a stamp on it!
This might be MDB's best post yet. Bravo, sir! Fuck, I love subtle sarcasm.
PILE IN, Bitchez ...
DO NOT SEND THAT LETTER, DUDE!!!
i wouldn't want you to get assassinated or permanently detained. never upset the king, dude. never.
ssssshhhhhhhh!
Lick it
Linda Green
Vice President
Mortgage Electronic Registration System
I suggest you throw in a line about being promised dollars dropped from helicopters and not standing for anything less.
The White House will be more responsive if you sign it Million Dollar Contributor.
You should recommend he continue to try to raise taxes on the rich cuz they just hoard money and keep it out of circulation, thus harming the economy.
A committee of government experts should be formed to tell us how best to spend and invest these new tax monies.
You forgot the part about "suck my turgid member". You can put that as the P.S.
The opening is wrong. Start with "Dear Son of Allah." Now that is better.
I found a video of Freddie on youtube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBHEKFxPb7c
How about " dear son of bitch allah peanut butter sandwitch !
it's pretty harsh
Very good.
"Despite my unwavering support for your administration and the values it stands for"
Take this out completely.
"I am increasingly agitated about the sluggish pace of this economic recovery."
revised to:
"Your a fucking tool who can't even tie his own shoes, your recovery sucks donkey ass"
"What is the government doing to promote growth and create jobs? With due respect, I want answers and will not be satisfied with smooth political talk. "
revised to:
"It is not the governments job to promote growth and create jobs. Let the free market decide, not your little fucking pea brain."
Add this:
"When Moochelle sucks your dick, does she swallow? Ive always wondered"
Might also write that letter in a green crayon on construction paper, I hear he has a hard time reading big boy pen and paper.
oh, duuuuuuuuude! you are SO gonna be assassinated now! or permanently detained.
Reply - none. No need since 99.9 ARE satisfied with smooth or even stupid political talk.
so does gold.
platinum $1,400(ish).. and going down further?
BEEP.. BEEP.. BEEP.. BEEP.. <--- that is my truck driver backing up.
You buy Paper anything.. with the World Credit Markets Freezing Up! and I will buy metal.. see ya in 6 months.. lets compare K-1's!
The largest holders of gold are among banks and European sovereign nations.
While you're backing the truck up, they are rolling you over.
I said this was going to happen when gold was at 1,900 but no one here wanted to listen and instead decided to ad hominem attack me.
He who laughs last laughs best bitchez. ha. ha.
If you think deflation is here to stay, you'd better check your history.Deflation or inflation/hypyerinflation it is just a policy choice.
21 countries have experienced hyperinflation in just the last 25 years:
http://bit.ly/sSi4Xr
These countries have experienced severe deflation over the past 50 years:
Japan.
Why does the government hate deflation and lower prices?
Because it lowers their tax revenues, it gives private citizens back their purchasing power (makes money more valuable to hold and save and invest) in their money and it lowers asset prices and other other consumer prices for goods and services we need and want.
Deflation does not allow governments to use inflation as a tax to steal our purchasing power (inflation is 100% pure government policy and is really nothing but an invisible, hidden government tax) and it lowers the taxes they collect on normal things like wages, property tax, etc.
This is one of the major reasons why there is so much effort by the Fed and Federal Government to try to re-inflate the housing bubble and to create inflation.
It’s in the government’s interests to create inflation (not too much inflation at once or too many people will wake up and realize and also dump the paper, fiat currency).
The bottom line is modern governments and central bankers have not allowed deflation to occur without first trying to interfere heavily in a country’s economy and markets and to first create inflation.
History is strewn with countless examples of interventionist policy by governments where the free market was not allowed to heal itself and purge itself of the bad investments and misuse of capital.
So if you believe deflation will prevail as Bob dabolina does, sure, sell your precious metals. If you believe as I do that printing to infinity will occur, hold onto them and buy on the dips.
Baby...
Bob_D told you to sell that when Gold was @ 1,900 and silver hitting 49.
Don't get it confused.
http://tradeonfire.blogspot.com/2011/09/gold-linear-regression.html
http://tradeonfire.blogspot.com/2011/09/profile-on-gld.html
Silver - the only commodity in the world still BELOW it's 1980 inflation adjusted and nominal high - I'm not worried.
Gold - just check out this chart for India - the story is similar for China and most other developing nations:
http://i51.tinypic.com/2hxqc9h.png
Dollar vs gold long term chart that even a trained monkey could extrapolate from:
http://goldratefortoday.org/30-year-gold-chart-dollar-gram/
long term dollar purchasing power:
http://observationsandnotes.blogspot.com/2011/04/100-year-declining-value-of-us-dollar.html
Do whatever you want. It's your moolah.
You were correct in calmly calling the short term tops in gold and silver. But next time you could be wrong and sooner or later you will be wrong and you will be selling your life boat for a pair of cement shoes. Be careful.
'dabolina' = 'jealous'
Its true! i read and studied this behaviour in highschool. What else is it - unless your a troll.
Anyone spending this much time on a website (and not adding any value/info) - and its not porn or poker or sports - is a troll or jealous.
The key to your comment is highschool. You also spelled 'your' when it should be "you're"
What am I jealous of? Losing money?
I wish I lost as much as the people who took the opposite side of my trades. Good thesis....good luck in college.
Learn grammar/spelling before you start criticizing people.
I think bob adds something. We all know the gold to da moon theory. Good to hear some different versions. I documented buysin zsl on this site one week before the great collapse. Best trade i ever made short term.
I am seriously considering buying gold at support, but gold hates me and tries to hurt me now, so I am not sure if I should.
I think you guys are confusing a long-term view of gold and its inherent value in case of a SHTF scenario. Bob_d is looking at it from a trading perspective. From a TEOTWAWKI perspective, hanging on to your gold for dear life is the best move. From a purely trading perspective (short-term) Bob_d is the winner. Apples to apples, dust to dust, bitchez.
"From a TEOTWAWKI perspective, hanging on to your gold for dear life is the best move"
From a TEOLAWKI perspective, hanging on to your gold for dear life is the best move.
There...fixed it for ya!
Still wonder what the "price" discovery method would be in an economic collapse. Will your one oz. gold eagle buy the whole cow or just a 5 lb. roast. In Cormac McCarthy's book "The Road" (granted the worst case SHTF scenario) gold has no value to the survivors. Food, weapons, clothing, etc... become the valuable items. I am still reading "When Money Dies" which provides insight into post WW1 Europe. They were trading gold watches for sacks of potatoes, grand pianos for sacks of flour, etc... So who knows what anything will be worth? I know, my family needs water, food and shelter to survive, so I will keep concentrating on my ability to provide those items in our uncertain future.
Depends on your resources really. First food, water, shelter, things to trade, firearms, and stay close to family. Once you have those gold and silver will hold value for after things are reestablished. Recent breakdown in Bosnia (1992-95) says silver, gold, are not the first things to own.
for the papper lovers of the world .. if you dont want Au AG ... at least buy some iron and Led
They can't roll over our will.
Tell that to the Enron investors.
Can't tell the difference between silver and paper. This is why you will come out of this with nothing.
Counterparty risk, bitches.
Unfortunately the counter part risk is society.
I have guns. You have silver. Who wins?
So you admit that you would, or will, resort to brute force and theft in the case of a financial collapse?
You are pathetic.
This guy is a troll. However, when things start falling apart - you will be shocked at how people will behave. If you have a wife, daughters, sisters, nieces or aunts - make sure they are armd and know how to use a gun.
People will just be taking things like animals if things fall apart. People voted for this in Nov. 2008.
You know you've fucked up when even Freddie laughs at your ignorance.
Akak +1
This is the same guy that fights for a $1.49 towel @ wal mart on black fri.
Just as long you have the brain.... tools like that kill each other each other off.
So you are saying human nature will change?
And what, EXACTLY, makes you think that silver ownership and gun ownership are mutually exclusive?
I can assure you that they are not!
I've heard the average person, in a situation of complete lawlessness, will go feral in about 48-72 hours. It's something to think about if you come across other folks in those circumstances.
You've heard that? You're an idiot.
It took only a few hours for people to lose their shit when the lights went out in NY. 48-72 hours would be very generous.
do you mean people or black people?
Bcus NY when the lights went out was pretty freakin calm. It will take less than 48 minutes for black people to go apeshit when the law is turned off
Your exahlted Japs rioted and stormed all manner of stores including breweries to steal shit.
But I guess the Japs just "find" stuff when they "need" it, whereas niggers "steal" anything anytime.
i think it is more like 4 minutes during a towel sale
I have a antique shotgun with beautiful gold inlay.. My fighting guns, however, are rather utilitarian.
Since you've never even held a gun, I'd bet on my silver.
Gold and Silver will never be worth nothing. You can pass all the laws you want to try and destroy it, but my neighbor's wife will still want some of the shiny stuff in exchange for some eggs and milk.
the last has only just begun, hold your premature chuclkes.
I don't know, why don't you go ask all the people who sold theirs?
@dob_bamolina: "But an ounce of silver buys less than it did last week. "
so does a dollar..........
Silver went down because of MFGlobal lost its silver
Silver and gold may be just as shiny as they were last week, but they are worth less. Just like my house. It protects me from the elements just as much as it did in 2007, but now it's worth less.
I'm personally not a weak handed gold investor... I'm a weak minded gold investor. I may not need to puke, but I definitely am licking some wounds due to losses... at least on paper. I'm not weak handed because I won't sell anytime soon... (actually, I've *never* sold gold in my life)... and in fact I'll probably buy again in the next 6-12 months... but 5% moves in a day are hard on this weak minded fool's brain.
I don't really believe in technical analysis, but I do think that 5% daily moves can be psychologically hard on investors... It'll be interesting if we see a major snap back in the next few weeks, or a grinding up down volatile gold price for a while...
O to have a crystal ball to discover when Ben is going to print... or at least when the paper/physical relationship was going to break!
If you are in physical, then hide is somewhere safe and go fishing.
Just lay low and relax. Margin calls all around are probably de-un-rehypothecating all sorts of stuff.
When looked at too closely, any chart can drive you crazy. Step back and think about what is going on, and you will feel better.
Lastly, stop thinking about gold in terms of $$ or Euros, etc. Think about it in terms of purity and weight.
pods
One other reason is distrust of COMEX and no one wants to loose equity. Maybe they are switching to buying bullion bars directly instead of futures and wait for delivery. A la Kyle Bass
Pods
+1 agreed
Use the the cheesy showtime chicken rotisserie pitch " set it and foget "
for you guys that dont like fishing
Go to a strip bar with jogging pants and no undies with fist full of debit notes
if shit goes down .. it goes down
TA is non applicable in managed/manipulated markets.
'I won't sell anytime soon'
that is your problem.. buy and sell some on the moves and you will feel much better about the situation. I sold most of my stuff when gold was near 1900 and silver ~ 48 and bought back some when they dipped.. and so on and so on.. keep a pile you don't touch but don't treat any trade like a long term untouchable 401k only buy monkey fuck
I am the silver bug.. I bought today.. I will buy tomorrow if it moves down again..
when should people buy Travis?
when prices are high?
and I am talking about physical NOT! Paper..
and for the record my foot stool's work as today as yesterday or the day before.
3 monster boxes stacked are a foot stool.
I wish I was in your boat. The best I can show off is an additional 30oz today.
my coin dealer skips the sales tax, on purchases, over$1500. worth waiting, between paychecks
I have yet to hear of any owners of physical gold or silver receiving margin calls. I certainly haven't heard of any having their assets hindered through broker shenanigans.
Looks like Trav loses again, folks. Big surprise.
... haven't heard of any clawbacks on physical either....
nah I have a giant stack of FRNs, I can buy more silver today than yesterday.
I guess in your world, that's losing. Making money is for losers. Maximizing your take is for losers. Right, cliff?
Basically, people like you brand winners as losers so that YOU can feel better about yourself...because it is YOU who are really the loser. In all things.
How much more money are you going to cost people before you do the world a service and kill yourself?
lol, now you are on record as having a giant stack of FRNs.
My cost average for silver is $18. Let's see if you can pick any up below that price, dumbass.
so you're admitting you were just cheering for OTHERS to buybuybuy and "back the truck up" in the mid 40s?
You're a real piece of shit
Interesting. You don't know what an "average" is.
If 18 is your number...you're gona' get your shit handed to you.
(friendly warning)
I told you to sell at $49...we're goin' lower on silver
I still hate you Trav
well this silver bug is loading the boat much like my cohorts who are not looking to dump physical for paper promises Dude
You had me all the way up to the "dude" part. Dude. Agreed though, hold it and wait. Those printers will make that metal worth more in FRN's. Im glad the PM's got hammered on margin calls today, makes it cheaper for me to buy.
Speaking of contrarian indicators, didn't Gartman make a gold bull call in the last couple of days? What does that make him over the past two years on gold, something like O and five hundred and thirty seven?
I presume you are referring here to his IQ and his weight, respectively?
Try Tylers'.
What this means is you should go short on C. It means Citi is selling their gold positions and want buyers. Why would they sell their gold unless they're strapped for cash?