Citi Predicts Gold At $3400 In "The Next Two Years", Potential For Move As High As $6000

Tyler Durden's picture

Following today's margin call anticipating, liquidation-driven rout in gold, the weak hands are, as the saying goes, puking up blood. Which may not be a bad thing - after all, sometimes a catharsis is needed to get people away from potentially toxic paper exposure which very likely has been hypothecated repeatedly via the same channels we discussed last week when exposing the MF Global-HSBC "commingled gold" lawsuit. But what about the future? Well, nobody can ever predict it, but at least we can sometimes look at charts in an attempt to glean a pattern. Which is why we present the just released slide deck from Citi's FX Technicals group titled "The 12 Chart of Christmas" which has some blockbuster predictions about the coming year, chief among them is without doubt the firm's outlook on gold which they see at $2400 in the second half of 2012, and moving "toward $3400 over the next 2 years or so." So for those looking at today's price action, consider it an opportunity to roll out of paper exposure and into gold, because the more deflationary the environment gets, the more eager the central planning cabal will be to add a zero (which in our day and age of primarily electronic money can be done with the flip of a switch) to the end of every worthless piece of monetary equivalent paper in circulation. And that's a 100% certainty.

From Citi:

While we remain cautious on Gold in the near term and believe that we could correct lower towards $1,600 and possibly re-test the $1,550 area we continue to believe that the bull market remains intact. As with the Equity market we believe that 2012 may be reminiscent of 1978 when Gold rallied nearly 50% off the 1977 close. Such a move would likely put Gold in the $2,300-2,400 area in the 2nd half of 2012.

 

On a longer term basis we expect even higher levels and target a move towards $3,400 over the next 2 years or so. We are not yet on board with the idea of a move with the same magnitude as seen in 1970-1980 when the last spike in Dec 1979-Jan 1980 saw Gold almost double in price as Russia invaded Afghanistan. Such a dynamic would suggest a move above $6,000 but we prefer to take a more conservative stance and look for a move similar to that seen without that final event driven push at the high which was a “blowout top” in Jan. 1980.

Many more charts coming shortly....

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TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

You know you've fucked up when even Freddie laughs at your ignorance.

 

peekcrackers's picture

Akak +1

This is the same guy that fights for a $1.49 towel @ wal mart on black fri.

Just as  long you have the brain.... tools like that kill each other each other off.

tmosley's picture

So you are saying human nature will change?

And what, EXACTLY, makes you think that silver ownership and gun ownership are mutually exclusive?

Au_Ag_CuPbCu's picture

I can assure you that they are not!

Sizzurp's picture

I've heard the average person, in a situation of complete lawlessness, will go feral in about 48-72 hours.  It's something to think about if you come across other folks in those circumstances.

trav7777's picture

You've heard that?  You're an idiot.

XenoFrog's picture

It took only a few hours for people to lose their shit when the lights went out in NY. 48-72 hours would be very generous.

trav7777's picture

do you mean people or black people?

Bcus NY when the lights went out was pretty freakin calm.  It will take less than 48 minutes for black people to go apeshit when the law is turned off

tmosley's picture

Your exahlted Japs rioted and stormed all manner of stores including breweries to steal shit.

But I guess the Japs just "find" stuff when they "need" it, whereas niggers "steal" anything anytime.

dark pools of soros's picture

i think it is more like 4 minutes during a towel sale

kinganuthin's picture

I have a antique shotgun with beautiful gold inlay.. My fighting guns, however, are rather utilitarian.

XenoFrog's picture

Since you've never even held a gun, I'd bet on my silver.

XenoFrog's picture

Gold and Silver will never be worth nothing. You can pass all the laws you want to try and destroy it, but my neighbor's wife will still want some of the shiny stuff in exchange for some eggs and milk.

fourchan's picture

the last has only just begun, hold your premature chuclkes.

navy62802's picture

I don't know, why don't you go ask all the people who sold theirs?

bbbilly1326's picture

@dob_bamolina:  "But an ounce of silver buys less than it did last week. "

so does a dollar..........

Cerna's picture

Silver went down because of MFGlobal lost its silver

Hmm...'s picture

Silver and gold may be just as shiny as they were last week, but they are worth less.  Just like my house.  It protects me from the elements just as much as it did in 2007, but now it's worth less.

I'm personally not a weak handed gold investor... I'm a weak minded gold investor.  I may not need to puke, but I definitely am licking some wounds due to losses... at least on paper.  I'm not weak handed because I won't sell anytime soon... (actually, I've *never* sold gold in my life)... and in fact I'll probably buy again in the next 6-12 months...  but 5% moves in a day are hard on this weak minded fool's brain.

I don't really believe in technical analysis, but I do think that 5% daily moves can be psychologically hard on investors...  It'll be interesting if we see a major snap back in the next few weeks, or a grinding up down volatile gold price for a while...

O to have a crystal ball to discover when Ben is going to print...  or at least when the paper/physical relationship was going to break!

pods's picture

If you are in physical, then hide is somewhere safe and go fishing.

Just lay low and relax.  Margin calls all around are probably de-un-rehypothecating all sorts of stuff.

When looked at too closely, any chart can drive you crazy.  Step back and think about what is going on, and you will feel better.

Lastly, stop thinking about gold in terms of $$ or Euros, etc.  Think about it in terms of purity and weight.

pods

Oracle of Kypseli's picture

One other reason is distrust of COMEX and no one wants to loose equity. Maybe they are switching to buying bullion bars directly instead of futures and wait for delivery. A la Kyle Bass  

peekcrackers's picture

Pods

+1 agreed

Use the the cheesy showtime chicken rotisserie pitch " set it and foget "

for you guys that dont like fishing

Go to a strip bar with jogging pants and no undies with fist full of debit notes

if shit goes down .. it goes down

Gringo Viejo's picture

TA is non applicable in managed/manipulated markets.

dark pools of soros's picture

'I won't sell anytime soon'  

that is your problem..  buy and sell some on the moves and you will feel much better about the situation.  I sold most of my stuff when gold was near 1900 and silver ~ 48  and bought back some when they dipped..  and so on and so on..  keep a pile you don't touch but don't treat any trade like a long term untouchable 401k only buy monkey fuck

 

JW n FL's picture

 

 

I am the silver bug.. I bought today.. I will buy tomorrow if it moves down again..

when should people buy Travis?

when prices are high?

and I am talking about physical NOT! Paper..

and for the record my foot stool's work as today as yesterday or the day before.

3 monster boxes stacked are a foot stool.

XenoFrog's picture

I wish I was in your boat. The best I can show off is an additional 30oz today.

delacroix's picture

my coin dealer skips the sales tax, on purchases, over$1500.  worth waiting, between paychecks

tmosley's picture

I have yet to hear of any owners of physical gold or silver receiving margin calls.  I certainly haven't heard of any having their assets hindered through broker shenanigans.

Looks like Trav loses again, folks.  Big surprise.

pakled's picture

... haven't heard of any clawbacks on physical either....

trav7777's picture

nah I have a giant stack of FRNs, I can buy more silver today than yesterday.

I guess in your world, that's losing.  Making money is for losers.  Maximizing your take is for losers.  Right, cliff?

Basically, people like you brand winners as losers so that YOU can feel better about yourself...because it is YOU who are really the loser.  In all things.

How much more money are you going to cost people before you do the world a service and kill yourself?

tmosley's picture

lol, now you are on record as having a giant stack of FRNs.

My cost average for silver is $18.  Let's see if you can pick any up below that price, dumbass.

trav7777's picture

so you're admitting you were just cheering for OTHERS to buybuybuy and "back the truck up" in the mid 40s?

You're a real piece of shit

tmosley's picture

Interesting.  You don't know what an "average" is.

bob_dabolina's picture

If 18 is your number...you're gona' get your shit handed to you.

(friendly warning)

I told you to sell at $49...we're goin' lower on silver

Whalley World's picture

well this silver bug is loading the boat much like my cohorts who are not looking to dump physical for paper promises Dude

txsilverbug's picture

You had me all the way up to the "dude" part. Dude. Agreed though, hold it and wait.  Those printers will make that metal worth more in FRN's. Im glad the PM's got hammered on margin calls today, makes it cheaper for me to buy.

mrgneiss's picture

Speaking of contrarian indicators, didn't Gartman make a gold bull call in the last couple of days?  What does that make him over the past two years on gold, something like O and five hundred and thirty seven?

akak's picture

What does that make him over the past two years on gold, something like O and five hundred and thirty seven?

I presume you are referring here to his IQ and his weight, respectively?

CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

 

 

Suspicious timing - especially if we apply the Tyler's's's's's's' Goldman Prop desk theory!?

 

Try Tylers'.

DeadFred's picture

What this means is you should go short on C. It means Citi is selling their gold positions and want buyers. Why would they sell their gold unless they're strapped for cash?

mrgneiss's picture

What, no Robotrader or the other gold trolls who come out those 2 or 3 times a year when their precious metal bear calls are temporarily vindicated?

notbot's picture

How about long PHYS, short GLD?  Protect yourself from the great paper/ETF unwind.

Odin's picture

hah, take a walk over to Market Watch...There shitting all over gold in their usual fashion.... Fucking Shills...

lewy14's picture

I'm not a troll, gold or otherwise. Gold is my single largest long position.

Yet. What I have to admit, the real catalyst for gold will be QE3, and/or a putsch at the ECB resulting in massive EUR printing.

This is not happening, and there is no sign of it being imminent.

Therefore it is reasonable to assume that the liquidation of everything risk (gold, copper, oil, wood, stocks, credit) will continue.

Printing will happen eventually. But the central banks have set the pain threshold rather high this time, it seems.

Oracle of Kypseli's picture

I think that printing is happening but it's kept under wraps to control gold price. That is actually great for those who are accumulating physical. It lowers the average bought price., especially when you look 2-3 years ahead. What's the point of worrying? the trend is intact BTFD. I bought another 20% position at 3:30pm to ad to my yesterday's 20%

dwayne elizando's picture

I couldn't agree more. Deflation is the new terrorist threat. Although the printing may have slowed down some doesn't mean they aren't printing.

Whalley World's picture

reasonable to assume that the liquidation of everything risk

Since when has the oldest form of $ in history been considered risk?  Paper money o.k, but gold, not hardly.

lewy14's picture

Since 1971.

The salient facts are these: there is too much debt, and this debt is (predominantly) denominated in dollars, euro, and yen.

It does not matter what gold is "worth". Does not. The only relevant question is: what is the numéraire?

mkkby's picture

I'm looking for the end of this correction to get much more long gold.  I'm thinking it could be quite a while (months).  Reason - Obamy will wind down the wars just to get re-elected.  That should reduce the deficit and pressure to print.