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Claims Print At 395K On Consensus Of 402K, To Be Revised Higher Next Week As FAA Layoffs Are Accounted For

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The noise that is the initial claims data presents just one question: will next week's upward revision bring today's 395K print to over 400K (yes, last week was revised higher as always from 400K to 402K, or 18 consecutive weekly 400K+ prints) thereby extending the stretch to 19 weeks in a row, or will we simply restart the count as next week sees another 410K plus print, which is very much disastrous for the economy. The one thing that BLS obvious glaringly forgot were the thousands of FAA employees that were fired, which will almost certainly be added to the rolls next week. Amusingly, in the state by state spread, not one state had an increase of more than 1000, while 10 states reported a decline of more than 1000, led by TN at -4,448 on "no comment." Indeed, same from us, suffice to say that those on EUCs continue to dwindle and drop by another 26K, down from 4,145,702 a year ago to just 3,158,312, a 1MM drop in Americans on 99 week claims who have now anniversaried their government benefits.

For those who want to laugh, here is the joke that is cumulative upward revisions to claims from the Bureau of Lies and Speculation.

And now back to apocalyptic headlines out of Europe.

h/t John Lohman

 

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Thu, 08/11/2011 - 08:38 | 1550285 Translational Lift
Translational Lift's picture

Sheeple no longer buying the BLS BS!!

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:01 | 1550344 No Bid
No Bid's picture

the good news is that with the recent market "volatility" [ie: massive selloff], more businesses will be hiring in the future!  the numbers are only going to get better, right?

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:04 | 1550353 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Companies now hire based upon low stock prices? Seems like the green shoots have come up poison sumac.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:14 | 1550374 Bob
Bob's picture

The corporate media has installed Mr. Market as our official spokesperson for The Economy.  Even when the talking heads mention unemployment, inflation and such, that ticker is still front and center. 

OMG, the markets are falling!  What an epic failure on OUR part that must be. 

The actual--or should I say original theoretical--purpose of the capital markets has been lost to government-corporate propaganda and exploitation.

Mr. Market's ever present face has become more familiar than the flag. 

Of course, that does seem in keeping with whom we serve.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:19 | 1550416 fuu
fuu's picture
99 weeks ago today was  09/17/2009
Thu, 08/11/2011 - 11:18 | 1550956 AcidRastaHead
AcidRastaHead's picture

Mr. Market is looking more and more like those false prophets (not to mention false profits) that we're supposed to be weary of.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 11:28 | 1551026 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture
by Bob
on Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:14
#1550374

 

The corporate media has installed Mr. Market as our official spokesperson for The Economy.  Even when the talking heads mention unemployment, inflation and such, that ticker is still front and center. 

OMG, the markets are falling!  What an epic failure on OUR part that must be. 

The actual--or should I say original theoretical--purpose of the capital markets has been lost to government-corporate propaganda and exploitation.

Mr. Market's ever present face has become more familiar than the flag. 

Of course, that does seem in keeping with whom we serve.

 

This is one of the leading factors as to why I'm uber bearish on the markets right now (along with more fundamental, value oriented reasons).

 

If a society's media holds out the hourly and daily flux and sway of the performance of equity markets (let alone concentrated and misleading indexes as the Dow) as some sort of litmus test for the health of "things" in general, that society is at the point of an absolute crash. It all reminds me of historical accounts of 1929 through 1932, when fortune tellers would publish daily commentary in some of America's most widely read newspapers as to how the stars and planets were lining up in reference to predictions about "stocks."
Thu, 08/11/2011 - 13:39 | 1551466 AcidRastaHead
AcidRastaHead's picture

Those fortune tellers now regularly appear on CNBC, and we call them financial experts.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 08:42 | 1550301 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

The only numbers that matter anymore are the amount of debt the USG has, the Fed's balance sheet, and the price of gold.

We are not growing our way out of this one.  (or lying our way out either)

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:35 | 1550373 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

I don't believe many politicians (including Tea Party members) have the courage to make deep and meaningful cuts in Medicare and Social Security. Doing so would likely be political suicide, and politicians generally want to stay in power. It is unimaginable how the US could ever repay its debt.  Sadly, their desperate measures of crushing the US Dollar and piling on more debt are making things worse.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 08:47 | 1550303 AcidRastaHead
AcidRastaHead's picture

I'm beginning to think that they can only process a maximum of ~400K.  Layoff some the claims processors and lo and behold each week is relatively the same.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 08:52 | 1550326 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

amazing how we can lose 400k jobs every single week and still have a semi-functional society

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 08:57 | 1550337 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea somethings not right with this, it doesnt make any sense. I dont know how its even possible, around 400K every week. 

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:06 | 1550359 slovester
slovester's picture

Haven't you heard? The new treasonally adjusted figure for max initial claims below which signals total job growth in the US is 425K/week (even as the total labor force figure shrinks to levels not seen since the early '80s).  /sarc

On a serious note to Tyler(s) -- I didn't see you post anything about yesterdays monthly treasury statement which showed that the fiscal year 2011 topping a trillion (1.0999T) for the 3rd year running with 2 months left in the fiscal year to go:

http://www.fms.treas.gov/mts/mts0711.pdf

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:11 | 1550371 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And real sad when you consider anything slightly under 400K jobs lost is now considered GREAT NEWS! What?

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:14 | 1550388 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

The goalposts have been moved. I glanced through press releases from the previous decade, and weekly jobless claim levels of under 350,000 were considered to be a sign of a healthy labor market.

The goalposts have been moved by the liars in the MSM.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 08:43 | 1550306 nate28jf
nate28jf's picture

I just read all of the reports as though they are coming from Baghdad Bob

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 08:46 | 1550315 Iriestx
Iriestx's picture

This is all the algos need to send us green to the moon. 

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 08:51 | 1550322 qqqqtrader
Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:25 | 1550455 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Gotta' hand it to him... he DID say that we would be fundamentally transformed when he took over.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 08:53 | 1550324 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I dont get how they keep finding another 400K (+ -) people to fire every week!

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:10 | 1550368 warchopper
warchopper's picture

That is a really good point. The average number of weeks people are unemployed is somewhere around 40?? plus. It makes sense that initial claims are dropping slightly because there are progressively less people to lay off. 

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:13 | 1550382 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I guess by the time we're 'only' losing 200K jobs a week, we'll be in economic BOOM times! More like 'ka-boom' times, but whatever.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 08:55 | 1550328 MiningJunkie
MiningJunkie's picture

Did any of you wattch Jim Grant slap Leisman around this morning? Amazing what happens when a person of high-intellect interacts with those morons on Squawk Box (like Beckie Quickie who was cheering gold down like a high-school prom queen...)

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 08:56 | 1550331 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Becky Quick, more like the high school bathroom ho.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:11 | 1550369 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

a ho with a bun in the oven, it would be sorta funny baby comes out looking like Warren Buffet

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:13 | 1550385 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

EW!

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:15 | 1550396 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

I am sure that is what Beckys husband will say..hahahahaahhah

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:20 | 1550419 The Wolf
The Wolf's picture

thank god someone else slapped him down... gives Santelli a break...

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 08:55 | 1550329 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The ZH herd has been noticeably thinned since a couple weeks ago when many were saying 'Im all in here you better pile in too on the debt ceiling being raised we're certain for a moonshot upwards'...where is everyone?

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:06 | 1550360 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

If Robo and HarryWanger have taken a permanent hiatus, that is fine with me.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:20 | 1550417 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

Hey I would miss Robo, just love to see him get bust on.  Miss the junks, I think they should bring them back.  The other thing, what the hell happen to spell check?  It took alittle bit of "readjusting" to get use to the changes, maybe other people were not so patient?

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:29 | 1550491 MichaelG
MichaelG's picture

My guess is due to the recent surge in traffic, what with Armageddon 'n' all, they needed to go back to a simpler interface to conserve bandwidth.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:31 | 1550502 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

I just noticed only yesterday that ZH had returned to it's former interface [minus] the 'junk' button

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:45 | 1550566 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Those two were good for some comic relief.  Robo also used to post some nice photos from time to time.

I miss the junk button, although I got junked to death when I defended muni bonds.  Anarchists seem to hate munis...

I wish ZH had an ignore button, but they don't seem to agree.

If you toggle the spell check function (the icon "ABC" on the screen when you are creating a message) it should work.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 08:56 | 1550332 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Where is brother boiler?  Goldman out in force today downgrading the top components of the IYR.  And for once, I agree with Goldman.  Sell them as Euro capital flows into our markets this morning.

RIETs should continue down, market moves not withstanding.  The three year long run there is over, especially as everyone frets about deflation for the next month or so.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:02 | 1550343 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

In particular FED fretting about their own little microworld of 'deflation' in the banksters main holding, real estate and REIT's. They cant have that.

Deflation in any other area would be GOOD for us out here, deflation in gas, food, materials prices...and all any printing is good for is inflating what they need inflated, the bubbles on their books. Bring on deflation!

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:02 | 1550347 DonnieD
DonnieD's picture

Someone should go to prison based on that chart.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:02 | 1550349 bmwm395
bmwm395's picture

es going green. find a spot to go short for the afternoon sell off.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:04 | 1550350 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Nobody believes the BLS.

On a side note, the monthly trade deficit for June came in at $53.1 Billion.  Wow.  Maybe the Free Traders can tell us all again why we need MORE free Trade agreements.  I guess they want to see every last bit of wealth stripped out of this country.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-11/trade-deficit-of-u-s-unexpected...

The US has run a net trade deficit (good and services combined) EVERY month since January of 1992.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:07 | 1550362 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right, but the eCONomists tell us trade deficits dont matter, we built this cool 75% Borrow and Consume economic model! Totaly failed... yes...but whatever!

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:21 | 1550426 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

The only solution to the world's various debt crises is more job creation, revenue collection, and reasonable spending levels.  There is no chance that printing more money will resolve global debt crises.  It is an act of desperation.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:16 | 1550398 Withdrawn Sanction
Withdrawn Sanction's picture

Imagine what the Treasury market would look like without those trade deficits being recycled through US capital markets every month. Not saying the free trade agreements are fair or well-designed or even a good idea; only that given we want to run huge fiscal deficits, someone's got to finance them and part of that finance comes from our foreign trading partners.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:23 | 1550441 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

<<< given we want to run huge fiscal deficits... >>>

How depressing it is to acknowledge that...

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:25 | 1550450 Bob
Bob's picture

There's an argument that without offshoring jobs we wouldn't need to run those huge fiscal deficits.  The loss of decent paying working class jobs has resulted primarily in a massive shifting of income to the classes that pay a much lower tax rate, e.g., 15% on capital gains, and spend far, far less of their income on "consumption."

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:05 | 1550355 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Let me get this straight........someone said we lose 400k a week but we are gaining 405k week(just assumed numbers) so that's how we end up with 20k new jobs every month.  Is that true? 

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:34 | 1550515 MichaelG
MichaelG's picture

5k x 4 = 117,000, doesn't it?

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:05 | 1550357 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

unrepairable damage

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:11 | 1550370 pepperspray
pepperspray's picture

Yahoo Finance headlines today say this is the first sub 400k number in four months.. but do a search on news and they headlined the SAME THING July 28!!  Ministry of truth indeed.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:23 | 1550438 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

Yeah. I was going to comment on the same filthy propaganda. "Hunger is prosperity."

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:11 | 1550376 chistletoe
chistletoe's picture

It is somewhat difficult

to have a high number of layoffs,

month after month after month,

when hardly anybody is still left working anymore,

no?

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:14 | 1550390 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

you would think there would be a max out level.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:13 | 1550384 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

NSA was way down but increased by 10,000. The summer multiplier factor is huge. The big question is what happens when all those summer jobs end?

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:14 | 1550393 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Pretty sad to when the avg job now pays around $7, and its part time.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:20 | 1550421 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Exactly...the SNAP rolls give a better indication of the quality of the job. Increase in non-living wage jobs. 

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:15 | 1550394 Portugal
Portugal's picture

7.000 / 400.000 = 0,0175 %....  surprising recovering ! Free unicorn rides, skittles and cotton candy for all!

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:29 | 1550487 Deepskyy
Deepskyy's picture

Bullish, got to be bullish.

Futures sniffing around the flat line. 

Considering that the majority of trading if today is an up day will be by Algos, and the few carbon based traders have the concentration of a crack addled gnat I'm sure Europe is already priced in.

 

And by priced in I mean if you asked you would see blank stares.

 

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:33 | 1550510 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

The y axis on the blue chart (first chart) is confusing to me, it looks like the last data point is around 240, but the last initial unemployment claims comes in around 390+, what am I missing?  I am assuming that the y axis is inital claims but it's not labeled and it is not explained in the body of the article...  hmmm maybe I just need one more cup of coffee or maybe it's just scaled wrong?

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:45 | 1550562 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The charts are showing cumulative revisions to the claims numbers they report, not the actual claims.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:51 | 1550585 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

What a cancerous market.

That's the problem with heroin infused markets when the government was providing free heroin.

The adverse health affects on the way down are anything but transitory.

There's a long, long way to fall before the junky can be saved.

Short the junky everytime he tries to pick his vomit soaked self off the floor.

Detox is a bitch.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 09:54 | 1550597 GCT
GCT's picture

I was actually amazed this morning.  Yahoo posted an article about the turn around and the low unemployment and the forums got so ugly they shut the post comments section.

People are no longer buying the MSM bull crap.  The censurship will becoming more and more often as the sheeple start to wake up to reality.  Well some of them anyway.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 10:07 | 1550648 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

Anyone else hear Steve Liesman refer to "his models"? Look like a complete fool sitting next to Jim Grant while extolling the virtues of a dollar backed by the "wealth of the nation"

Is this truly the most credible fucking shill they can find?

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 10:48 | 1550839 docj
docj's picture

Seems that all Fraud Street needs to ramp-up 2.5% is a sub-400K print on initial FUNemployment claims 2+ years into Recovery Summer.

Wow.

Meanwhile the real world is in flames, which is, I suppose, bullish.

Thu, 08/11/2011 - 11:23 | 1550978 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

Market rallies on these numbers. I think I smell recovery or is that Barney Frank's fart.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 05:51 | 1667691 chinawholesaler
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