Closing Dexia Long CDS With $3.6MM Profit On Imminent Nationalization Concerns
Back on May 25, somewhere close to the irrelevant equity market's highs, when once again a little ahead of the market curve we suggested that Dexia would be the bank most impacted by the next round of Greek-induced risk flaring, we were banging the table on a long Dexia CDS SUB position. 5 Year subs were trading at 568 bps then. They are now 31/39 points upfront and every day for Dexia could be its last. Which is precisely why we are closing the trade: should Dexia go under it will drag all of Europe with it. We expect a partial or complete nationalization to be announced imminently, which in addition to all other side effects, would lead in a Bear Stearnsing of all accrued profit. With a 20% recovery rate on the CDS, the P&L on the trade is $3.6MM on $10MM notional. Not bad for a 4 month holding period.
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