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CMBS Sell Off Continues, Super Dupers Hit Widest Spread Since June 2010
Even as the policy instrument that is the US stock market does its robotic levitation thing on days when it is not plunging (i.e. volume is bigger than average), other, more rational indicators continue to paint a less rosy picture in terms of risk inflection points. The latest of these is CMBS, which as we speculated two weeks ago, has continued to be sold off across all vintages and as of today, the super duper AAA tranche has just hit its widest spreads since June of 2010. The charts below show the spread comparison from two weeks ago for AAA and AJs and the subsequent widening to date.
From August 17:
And from today:
Source: JPM
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And....the IYR and CRE REITS are up, up, and away again today.
What does the truth mean if they push valuations into triple digits with impunity?
LOL, and the VIX continues to drop. disfunction at it's best.
FWIW, equity indices now entering overbought, stoke ass tickly.
Blink,,,,IWM up 10% from Friday's low and up 30% on the 3x's....that's a wow trade..
We may just have seen the shortest (5 week ) Bear market in history
Vapor trading.
Come on Tyler, who ya gonna believe? A bunch of CMBS speculators who risk their own money or a bunch of stock mongers who risk nothing or the Feds "money"?
Tranches, bitchez!
Well no prob. A consortium of China-Saudi-Qatar will ride in. We'll just have to owe them and if we don't pay, well, we can go clean toilets in Shenzen
Can a brother get an IYR chart or what?
rollover bitchez
+1981 Movie
don't touch my JNK bitchez
Space for Lease
Looks like a big smile
Well, in 'fixing the markets' the Keynesian eggheads have now totaly destroyed the markets for generations. The only people who own stocks are the 401K bathrobe brigades, who are about to get killed...the only other viable market is PM's and even theyre a manipulated mess with a new lid constantly being welded on. I own some PM's, but theyre no miracle safe haven.
Commercial real estate mystifyingly defied gravity in Aug and early Sept 2008 as well.
It would be interesting to see CMBX prices versus IYR from that time period. Do CMBX prices lead, lag, or coincide?
In this recent downturn, CMBX appears to have led by a few months, which could make recent further CMBX deterioration notable for IYR going forward.
Time to get in early on the moot building business, all those SPG malls are going to need architecturally pleasing barricades to keep the common maltoff cocktail throwing/flash rioting peasants from distracting their high end shoppers.
OT but gold getting spanked again...another insider leak of a CME margin hike?
stocks dont care
real estate stocks dont care. even SFI is up 7%
credit doesn't care
no one cares 2day
bad news is the new bullish.
But don't worry, CNBS will dig up another guest to say "what commercial real estate crash" even though they think that an empty strip mall doesn't count...
IYR up 2.5% today...after being up even more yesterday....and up the day before.
It's well on it's way to it's 52 week highs within...oh....say...3 more days.
BXP is now at 101X P.E. I didn't think they could get it into triple digits again. But, I'll be damned. They got 'er done again.
dead head feds in conjunction with bankster fraudsters plan to off load all worthless debt/bonds on the public and leave them the risk bag holders. I see markets getting stuffed until the 9/21 ben jackass son holy speak orchestrated rally climbs the wall of worry. banksters will be well positioned to sell into publicly bought rallies when bentrod makes an announcement of another 1 trillion in POMO's. Reeling in the sheeple for the big porkin pig man slaughter. AmeriCON'd the freedumbed.
It's all Zerohedge fault, I tell you. Their gloom is dropping world markets now!
[/sarc]
New Czar....
I googled the guy, image popped up, had same reaction as scene in movie where the guy jumps up from behind the couch with the knife and stabs the girl.
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