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CMBX Selloff Accelerates
Yesterday, we speculated that the perfect storm for CMBX, long overdue, is finally coming. Sure enough, it appears to have arrived as the sell off across AAA/AM and AJ 1-5 CMBX vintages has seen one of the most agreesive dumps on the day, focusing particularly on the lowest in the stack.
To wit:
- AAA 25, CMBX.5 89-16/90-16, CMBX.4 89-08/90-08, CMBX.3 89-08/90-08, CMBX.2 91-16/92-16, CMBX.1 93-28/94-20
AAA day change CMBX.5-CMBX.1 -1-24, -1-26, -1-26, -1-05, -0-23 - AM 10 CMBX.5 75-20/77-04, CMBX.4 74-24/76-08, CMBX.3 76-28/78-04, CMBX.2 82-00/83-16, CMBX.1 87-16/89-08
AM day change CMBX.5-CMBX.1 -2-16, -2-17, -2-29, -2-08, -1-23 - AJ 10 CMBX.5 55-00/59-00, CMBX.4 54-08/56-08, CMBX.3 58-24/60-24, CMBX.2 69-24/71-24, CMBX.1 79-08/81-08
AJ day change CMBX.5-CMBX.1 -3-11, -2-16, -2-08, -2-11, -2-17
Source: Bloomberg
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ZH got vision, and the rest of the world wears Bi-Focals.
I'm watching Final Destination 7... starring Bank of America.
People.. sorry for the ignorance.. but what is this CMBX thingi..
An index of Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities
Thanks
Could it be that the Fix is finally breaking?
I hope TOPUS had a nice bicycle ride today.
Shankapotomus, lol, Obama is such a goofy uncoordinated dork!
Take the podium and teleprompter away and he turns into the awkward/nervous nerd that ran for class President every year in HS.
Yes but the nerd doesn't have a colossal ego fed by decades of liberals fawning over him to prove they are enlightened.
The Divine Emperor Gluteus Maximus Obama
And ALL HAIL his heavenly consort Michelle Hottentot Venus!
The "anything but gold" investments are not working. Now RIETS, farmland failry soon.
Platinum and silver are holding up.
What's your take/prediction on farmland?
My prediction on farmland ain't the normal one. Local & State governments are broke. By owning farmland, you become a captive audience and the governments have the ability to tax you to death. I predict tax increases that will make owning real estate unbearable.
It's kinda weird, but I think you can learn a bunch of life's lessons by watching Gone with the Wind. In one scene the house servant comes up to Scarlet and asks, "Miss Scarlet, How much gold you got?" Three coins. "Ain't gonna be 'nough. I heard them carpet baggers say da they gonna raise the taxes on Tara sky high." How much? "Ten gold coins." Well, we'll just have to raise it. "Where are we going to get that much money? The whole world doesn't have that much money."
I wholeheartedly agree... Having your mortgage inflated away while your taxes increase at the same rate is not much an investment....
So what about the counties that have no major city and are effectively only inhabited by farmers, their progeny, and work forces? (and there are many of these counties in the united states).
Agreed, that could be different... But, I don't many here at the hedge are interested in ekeing out a subsistence existence on a few acres out in the country...
I guess the landlord, posed with the question of "where do I buy farmland" has two choices, either buy the land in a county with a major metropolitan area that might attempt to cure its shortfalls by taxing the shit out of him or purchase land in another county, albeit with similar soil/water provisions, but without the political liability (given the farmers control the political structure). Just another item to consider...
The tenant beams back the crop share/rent regardless of whether they're in the sticks or next to a city... so, I'm not talking about farming it yourself, although there is nothing against that and I hope to do so once I become more... financially established.
Farm land has been bid up by low rates no different then condo's. I guess Warren Buffet thinks farmers live in another world. They are up to their asses in debt with new tractors and endless expansion. Farm land will go down, not as hard as condo's but it is not an inflation hedge.
I grew up on a farm. Land prices in some areas are just lunatic.
CMBX.NA.AAA-5 all the way to the 1st looks very little changed..
BTW, have you looked inside those products? Some nice 'bear stearns' underlyings show up.. awesome.
i think dealers stuck with inventory...got greedy last year and didn't sell....now wish they had but can't and the rating agencies getting tougher on them too
Not so sure, most recovered up until february of this year. But they probably did get greedy - seeing as how in the last days where the market dried up and it was too late in the game to tell the origination team it was too late to issue..
Some of these POS making up the underlying tranche, for example the BBB-, trade at 8/100. Lol. i.e. BANC OF AMERICA COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE INCORPORATED; BEAR STEARNS COMMERICIAL MORTGAGE SECURITIES INC.
Lol. All very "high class names" if you see what i mean. a joint LEH-UBS collabo somewhere in there as well.
Point is, looking at the price history for that same BBB- product, it recovered to only about 20/100 this february..off of lows at 9... So yes..definitely some stuck with this, but i dont see them selling now to recover much as theyve already no doubt written it off.
I love ZeroHedge and read it daily....but has it gotten so popular that ZeroHedge is now the market maker?
Hmmm....you think?
Buy silver!
Buy silver!
Buy silver!
;)
I've thought that out loud before, too, but don't think so. Economy is too big and complex.
ZH just very very good at seeing everything on the radar and calling them.
The analytics are amazing. Reading ZH is like looking over Bernanke's shoulder.
That will never happen. The sheeple WANT the MSM. They don't want to wake up. Alternate sources of information that don't go along with the game have always been marginalized, and always will.
RUN, FOREST, RUN...
Leveraging works nicely on the way up, but the levers work faster on the way down.
TYLER...Tension explodes in CNBC
http://www.businessinsider.com/simon-hobbs-to-jim-cramer-you-told-people-to-buy-bear-stearns-2011-8
They have to entertain/distract people somehow.
Uh oh, trouble amongst the paid shill clowns at the Blowhorn!
Cramer is a POS. File under TREASON. ;)
The video you are trying to access is unfortunately unavailable at the moment.
Looks like the video nazis cut this entertainment short.
Hey folks,
What' the better short play. Commercial reits or regional banks who were out the residential lending market and went more into commercial? Thinking about shorting regionals like Suntrust or Regions Financial? Thoughts?
I dont know, just went long 1,000 more rounds of .308 from gundeals.com though.
cash brother..
Crap raki_d .. I just ended hitting my screen trying to get rid of the pesky thing running over it.. turns it was your image :( :(
Thoughts?
All drops in this market, even 600 pt drops, will be met by multiple violent swings higher on low volume. TPTB have spent a lot of effort in kicking this can and they have no intention of letting a silly stock market stop them. Unless you are day trading, it's just gambling.
Ahh... just like the good old days when checking the ABX indices with the morning coffee was de riguer
Isn't this the time that was predicted to be the hour of doom? All that 5 year paper financed in 06 and 07?
Ah yes SD1, I just went long on a case of .223 and this weekend will purchase my 6th Ar15 from a gunshow...I love the black rifle...
6th?
Aren't they very reliable?
lol
They are...they will be my poor mans gold when the shtf! if not, I can always arm my friends...
LOL 1000 yes one must have friends that are armed to protect what they have. Lone wolf will get you killed if the SHTF does happen. Check the web there is now a new site teaching people how to form looting parties.
Not surprising GCT, the world is failing around us and most people think it will be just another downturn, they try to link the riots of today with the riots of the 60's, that will be a fatal mistake, anyway, no one knows for sure what will happen, I will hedge on water\food\security, precious metals of mine consist of brass\copper and lead and high speed delivery devices to deliver said metals. I do not discount people who buy silver and gold, they are correct in that it does preserve your wealth, however, remember its value is only worth what someone thinks it is in a given situation, if you are dying of thirst, what is more valuable, a gold coin or a glass of water?