The meaning of Trumpism is that Americans want to rid themselves of the burden of empire. Trump’s rise augurs a seismic shift in the foreign policy debate in this country, marking the end of the interventionist consensus that dominates both parties. And it certainly means the final defeat and humiliation of the neoconservatives, who are busy spewing vitriol at him and his 'plebeian' supporters. And that alone is worth whatever price we have to pay for the triumph of Trump. For the neocons are the very core of the War Party: their demise as a politically effective force inside the GOP is an event that every person who wants a more peaceful world has been longing for and should celebrate.
Between 1990 and 2010, eventually 37 banks would become JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup. The “Big Four” retail banks in the United States collectively hold 45% of all customer bank deposits for a total of $4.6 trillion... as the biggest got biggest-er all thanks to the very visible hand of The Fed's free money.
The first real signs that the global luxury home price bubble had popped emerged last fall in the world’s capital of oligarch money laundering: London. Since then, we have seen weakness in high end Manhattan real estate, but the trend has now spread and is starting to make itself apparent all over the place.
Dow futures are down 100 points and Chinese stocks are pressing new 14-month lows, extending last night's carnage after Chinese Industrial Profits tumbled. With a dismal 4.7% drop year-over-year, led by a near 60% collapse in the mining industry, early strength (after some jawboning from Abe) gave way to fresh lows and US equity futures are also responding. Offshore Yuan refuses to drop since Xinhua wrote a 3rd hit piece against George Soros and his "speculative snap profits."
“Soros’s war on the renminbi and the Hong Kong dollar cannot possibly succeed — about this there can be no doubt. Reckless speculations and vicious shorting will face higher trading costs and possibly severe legal consequences. And just as proved in the yuan exchange rate case, the Chinese government has sufficient resources and policy tools to keep the overall economic situation under control and cope with any external challenges.”
The carnage always comes by surprise, often on an otherwise ordinary Saturday morning... The government declares a surprise bank holiday. It shuts all the banks. It imposes capital controls to stop citizens from taking their money out of the country. At that point, the government is free to help itself to as much of the country’s wealth as it wants. It’s an all-you-can-steal buffet. This story has recently played out in Greece, Cyprus, Argentina, and Iceland. And those are only a few recent examples. It’s happened in scores of other countries throughout history. And we think it’s inevitable in the U.S.
Since the beginning of the 21st Century, as people awoke to Y2K that did not end the world, there has been one 'currency' that has outperformed all its peers in terms of preserving wealth and maintaining purchasing power...
The one given in this industry is that the analyst community is consistently wrong about where the price of oil is going in the near to mid-term. So let’s just step away from the current noise and focus on a non-controversial outcome - Today’s pricing sentiment is driven by a global economic "Pick 6"...
For the Sanders and Trump voters, the status quo seems not only unacceptable, but intolerable. And if their candidates and causes do not prevail, they are probably not going to accept defeat stoically, and go quietly into that good night, but continue to disrupt the system until it responds. Unlike previous elections in our time, save perhaps 1980, this appears to be something of a revolutionary moment. We could be on the verge of a real leap into the dark.
For those who are inching closer to the "crash is imminent" camp, we suggest taking a look at the chart below showing the stress levels, or rather lack thereof, 2 months prior to every major crash in the past decade, and extrapolating how far said "stress" may soar to in the coming 8 weeks if, as Citi, JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank today suggest, central banks are on the verge of losing control...
Sweden's Major General Anders Brännström thinks a global conflict could be right around the corner and in order to defend the homeland, the country's military needs to develop "the capability of armed battle against a qualified opponent." While it's not entirely clear who counts as a "qualified opponent," Defence Committee chairman Allan Widman sees a very real threat from the Russians going forward.
The financial engineering that has been made possible by zero percent interest rates is no longer available to paper over weak corporate results in the U.S. Our economy is addicted to QE and zero rates, and without those supports, we will spiral back into recession. This is the reality that the mainstream tried mightily to ignore the past several years. But the chickens are coming home to roost, and they have a great many eggs to lay. In the end, stimulus does not create actual growth, but merely the illusion of it.