CME Hikes Gold Margins By 22% And Gold Drops by....0.4%, Resumes Climb
Just after hitting a new all time high of above $1815 in spot gold, the CME immediately sent out a notice to members advising that gold margins for Tier 1 members were increasing by 22% for both initial and maintenance positions, from $4,500 to $5,500. Unfortunately for the CME, this predetermined move was telegraphed to the market weeks ago, and with rumor 57 out of 22 finally turning out correct, this latest move only managed to push gold down modestly, and at last check was once again trading above $1,800. Just like all central bank interventions, which now have a half life between 1 hour and 4 days max, so this latest exchange attempt to subdue prices will fail spectacularly. Naturally, just like in the case of silver, this will merely embolden the CME to proceed with hike after hike, which in turn will kill speculative elements while merely reinforcing the strong hands. End result: in one month gold will be above $2,000 with almost 100% certainty.
In addition, the CME also hiked CHF futures by 443%, Yen futures by 25%, Ruble futures by 36%, as well as TEN, UBE and I3. The only margins that were cut were those of Uranium which dropped from 1320/1200 to 990/900 for initial/maintenance.
CME notice goes out at 6:31 pm, and gold promptly resumes upward climb:
And CME notice:
(3 votes)
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It is time to to put trailing stops on CEF and the like...take some gains but don't be greedy...As for physical in the hand, since when is that for trading???
All calmly typed, might I add, while stroking a tube of kruggers....
IGNORES bitchez.
You clearly are an ignorant fool....now run back to Yahoo or whatever hole you crawled out of.
Shorts are going to get absolutly tuned tomorow on this hike. They are in a world of hurt. Maybe there is some method to this JPM $2500?
Hence the trailing stops....
No, $2500 may be for real, but there is a host of new longs, weak hands that need to be flushed out of Au... GSR seems to have serious resistance at 45, I look for it to return to 35 by year end...
Like so many interventions, this tactic is losing its oomph. Traders have learned that they can ignore these clowns if they are wiling to weather turbulence for a couple of days.
It all depends on who has fresh cash and how their other positions are levered....Look, I've seen stuff like this before, Ag not so long ago. Au has gone parabolic, tread lightly with your tradable assets, as for the real stuff, sit back and watch the show, accumalate on their knock down, my gut tells me that Au will retest (and pass with flying colors) $1700
Hacker Triggers Halt on Hong Kong Exchange - Bloomberg
As lies go, that one is a big one.
margin hikes no longer effective, inverse waterfall in sight.
http://azizonomics.com/2011/08/10/how-high-will-gold-go/
have you not been paying attention to the rest of the market? shit is absolutely cratering.
You trade with a trailing stop in this volatility, you'll be stopped out. Better to spend the money on a downside put for insurance.
The CHF has gone even more apeshit than gold
CEF doesn't have options.... Watch the action in the producing Juniors... years of hard research is starting to pay off. Energy MLPs have weathered this very well.
All my liquid position are options, but I keep converting the profits into physical
Speaking of apeshit, see the latest WTI-Brent spread?? Hit $24 today... something is seriously amiss.
WTI-Brent Spread, yes, odd, very odd.
The SPR release provided a location for JPM shorts.
That is definately part of it.... to what end, I have no idea... Prices at the pump are tracking Brent.
That Brent/WTI spread is fucking unbelieveable. Right now I'm printing a ratio of 1.28! I'm seriously tempted to jump in on the compression trade, but there's no liquid options for Brent over here, so I'm holding back, for now.
I have no idea what is causing this ratio, but I see no good reason that whatever is causing it will give you an arbitrage opportunity in the immediate to short term.
I encourage you to have a look at the spread/ratio volatility since February, when the serious drift began. Daily close is sufficient to see what I'm talking about.
People don't realize this is a total transition from paper to metal; it's like the economy is a transformer. This isnt a bubble, it's the new reality.
Correct. Issuing "margin hikes" on the now-defacto world reserve currency is not like issuing it on a commodity.
Yes, I agree to a point...
Very little stuff that I trade is real gold... I have been slowly turning paper profits into physical for 5 years now....
What you describe is a transition not an event....If Sept 2008 was the first inning, we are now in the top of the sixth.
Like I said, I ain;t shorting, just putting on trailing stops.... pigs always get slaughtered.
Au-bots, roll out..
Decpticons still fits for their archenemy.
I'd supplement by stating that it's a transition from paper to real. Physical stores of many things are gaining in value, albeit in a less visible way than PMs. The purchasing power transfer to PMs will lend to a second phase, in which scarcity premiums for staples will skyrocket as the dislocation from the currency transition sets in. Purchasing power wins the day post the Big Reset.
I'm not a trader, and leave it to others to collect those arbitrage gains. As an 'accumulater', however, I am very comfortable with the stockpile of physical things within a sand wedge of where I'm currently sitting.
New reality is right. The return of real currency is not the bubble...what it's replacing is.
Yes, it's a transition from paper to real. What we're seeing now is the decoupling from the old reality to the new reality.
TPTB are sending a clear signal to people that the new value is gold. Value only exists within the human mind. They're training the human animal to devalue paper and to value gold. Like in animal farm, Two legs good, four legs bad.
Gold good, paper bad.
"Au-bots, roll out!" love it.
Exactamundo.
The world of stops & shorts & hedges is the old world; intrinsically worthless, only leads to extinction.
Sure the premiums for staples are through the roof, but did you notice that paper clips aren't available at any price? God knows what kind of paperwork is coming down the line from the secret government!
Watching the price action in gold for the past couple of weeks has been really funny. While Obama and his BFF Boehner were putting on a show to distract Americans in order to pick their pockets, the world has decided to step in and fuck them over by driving up the price of gold. Justice is being served!
Flak,
A week ago I might have agreed with you. But today's action shows a complete decoupling of the HUI from the broad equities markets. (And about bloody time, too!) I'm thinking there's not going to be much more weak-hand-flushing going on any time soon in the gold market.
Yeah, I said it: "This time it's different."
Like my posts have said, don't be greedy, be ready to take profits on tradeable assets...
It is different, but not quite yet....
By the way, it is about bloody fucking time that the miners started to move...
I dunno man...they could go absolutly apeshit too.
All the same be careful. These crooks will stop at nothing. Don't over leverage. What the CME is doing is attempting to put on a show for the average guy who has started to look into golds direction due to headlines but does not fully understand it's drivers yet. Gold has gone CRAZY (Real money does in this enviorment). JPM and Goldman raised the outlook for gold for this very purpose I believe. They wanted to cram GLD full of sheeple and smack them across the face to teach the sheeple a lesson for even looking at gold. Only 1-1.5% of the American people really understand golds role. Lets just hope enough of the "newbies" don't give a crap and are hedging disaster as they should!
BTD!!!!!
What do you think Paulson is going to do with his GLD shares?
Looks to me like he will save his funds by buying gold, not selling it.
Polishing an '84 Morgan on my pantleg . .
Nice, I don't have much old stuff... 1882 Newfoundland $2 gold piece is the only comparable (1/10 oz)... Got a mittful of Peace Dollars though (paid $12 a piece for them)....
Yeah I just got a few these and I've got to say I love the historical vibe: "One Dollar."
I got my first one a few months ago. `83. I love it too it's my only one but it reminds me there was a time before the Fed, for one thing.
I've been carrying a '90 Morgan in my pocket for the last five years. Whenever a cashier at the supermarket or hardware store does the rudimentary authenticity test on a 50- or 100-dollar bill, I tell them, "it's all fake." I then show them the Morgan and tell them that it's probably the first real money they've seen all day.
BTW, if you just carry that Morgan in your pocket for a few weeks, it'll polish itself and develop a gleaming shine.
I used to carry a Mexican Liberdad in my wallet. But every so often when I'd flip it open, the Molly Ringwaldesque bubblegum popping cashier would roll her eyes at me "like he really needs that big a condom!".
So now I carry a 1/10oz eagle doing a better job at impression management.
When silver is 100 bucks an ounce maybe I'll switch back to the Liberdad.
I have been carrying a $100,000,000,000,000 Zim note in my wallet for the last few years for shock value. Tonight I gave it to our local version of Robo who sorely needed a lesson in real value and told him to take it home and Google it. Now if I can just remember where I stashed the other 19 when I bought them on eBay and they would still buy a cab ride in Harare.....
You call it "a tube of kruggers?" Never heard that one.
Now, now, take your mind out of the gutter.....
My handle ain't Gold Dick, ~1.25 lbs of swinging meat would make the ladies run away screaming....
"My handle ain't Gold Dick, ~1.25 lbs or swinging meat would make the ladies run away screaming..."
Hmmmm.... 1.25 lbs x 16 x 28 =560 grams.... 526 grams of gold (roughly) 2.75"long by 1.5" circumference.... I think they would be laughing more so than screaming. Unless of course they knew it was solid gold, and they thought that it was just the "root" of the stash, then they would see 12" and a Bugatti Veyron in their future.
You are mixing metaphors.....
Along with drinks!
Ten Hail Mary's and ten Our Fathers, and the stroking will be forgiven. PS Strong work!
Diminishing MARGINal Returns.
Blastoff Bitchezzzz!
Tyler,... OK, this margin increase has been telegraphed for some time and I think this is just the beginning. What jumped out in your post was the 443% increase in margin rates on the Swiss Franc. I found that absolutely unbelievable (but, hey, we live in unbelievable times). I checked the CME/CBOT site and found no reference to that kind of hike. The CME release you posted with the short article lists SF futures going from 3780 intial to 5400 intial (with corresponding mnt. margin hike for specs.). This is a 43% hike not a 443% hike....
a fat-finger mistake?
I'm trying to think what the Swiss make that the US is utterly dependent on. Hmmmm. still thinking. still thinking. still thinking. tennis stars! there! i came up with one!
disabledvet
CHOC O LATE.
Banks to hide money?
Yup, people here crowed far too soon. After the intial drop and bounce, gold is going straight down overseas now (10:20 pm EST). All red bars, one after another.
Well, ok, $1788 isn't $1820, but damn, still ain't down all that much.
Cue end of world playlist: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D9s18rUaubc
Dude, they rock!
Try these guys, they rock too.
End of all hope lyrics - Nightwish
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84aIX8UPklI
sounds inspired by Carmina Burana from Carl Orff
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEllLECo4OM
woohoo the margin hike thread! im sooooo in!
i thought the 1-hour-to-4-days for bankster intervention was the full life of the tweak
maybe i should re-calibrate my bankster tweak-o-meter? they have something that lasts: Eight Days A Week???
Soon the full duration of the tweak will be about as long as it takes for the bowl to refill after it's been flushed. The interventions amount to nothing more than the Bernank jiggling the handle.
Morons to the right, morons to the left.
Is their a margin hike on Lib BS yet?
Gold is no longer a trade. It's a fight for physical Gold to fill the coffers before everyone figures out it's now the worlds reserve currency.
Margin hikes mean nothing now. Pay me later or pay me now, it all comes out the same at expiry. The game has changed and not everyone has figured that out yet, to their ultimate disaster.
Jeffery Christains 2011 year end target for gold........ $1420
haha
See Excellon today? Released their latest quarter and smacked it out of the park... Highest grade silver mines in the world and new drill results at 1400 g/t...
Edit: should have added their lift rate was $3.27 per oz (IIRC)..... hell thats only 127 pre-82 pennies... Where's Mathman when you need him??
Edit: should have added their lift rate was $3.27 per oz (IIRC).....
Bullshit. Mines are big operations. They produce chemicals and all sorts of metals. You can run the cost analyzis on any part of the balance sheet. The sulfuric acid can appear to cost nothing to get or the silver can appear to cost nothing to get but when it's all said and done lead is way overpriced and uranium is way too cheap. It's all in how you present the byproducts numbers.
Which is why semi precious stones such as tourmaline and jade, etc are so dirt cheap. They are simply byproduct sales which is what silver has done. You have a process cost for the gold and silver and gold has ended up payng that process cost for nearly 80 years.
Believing any data from a mining company is as big a mistake as taking a central bankers word. You are being told this fantastic news and bullshit lift rate to get you to slobber over a unsecured share stake in the mine which if you bite you'll be hooked deboned and grilled. You simply must understand that anyone in the mining industry is a complete jackass liar.
Yeah... your point is made. The exception proves the rule though.
The lift rate has to do with Pb-Zn by products, 7% and 1% grades, ~90% recovery. Did I mention that their ores are 780 g/t? Don't have to move alot of rock to be profitable....
The stock price is the stock price and you can make money if you go in for quick 2 or 3 baggers at the right time but if you believe 780g/t is a valid average number you have ore in your head. It happened once on 5 tons in a row and is spit out as a "fact".
Mines don't work those ores at these prices. They cost average YOU. YOU don't cost average them. At high prices they work the shittiest ore they can find.
And heraclitus said men dig tons of rock for ounces of gold. He didn't say they dig tons of rock for 10 or 12 lbs of silver. I don't know what the hell is wrong with these miners. But they seem to want to believe theres a 30:1 or 40:1 gold silver ratio. All of them spout the same fooking crazy. Or want us to believe silver sulfide is triple 9 silver.
Guaranteed bullshit.
Like I said all you gotta do is read history. The economy has to work on every level. And when copper prices went ballistic in 2007 you knew it had gold and silver on life support.
Edit: Damn... table didn't work...
http://tmx.quotemedia.com/article.php?newsid=43748019&qm_symbol=EXN
I stand corrected on the lift costs... was $3.74 not $3.27
The stock was up 25% today. It doesn't matter if its bullshit, take your double or triple or whatever you have and move onto the next one.
I have made waay more then I have lost dealing in these miners.
I'll gladly post some prints on Excellon.....the old timers here know my track record
Go dig out my old posts about FRG when it was $2.45... last I heard it was taken out by Newmont at $14 ($CAD, when the $CAD was $1.05...)... or IPT.CA when it was 0.22....
Long John for the the win!!!!
He is dead on, over and over again.
That sums it up, and as for this part, """The game has changed and not everyone has figured that out yet""", I would add, IMHO, Americans are themost unaware of all the G-20 countries. Expecting similar type [series of] moves when Margin became the Hammer for Silver, continuing until the desired results are seen, I would use the inexpensive Insurance of DZZ, a Double Inverse on Gold, currently Under $5.00
They never raise margins on OIL, criminals. We need to send a cleaning team to CME or procecute them for the treason.
That's how uncle benny exports some of the money he prints. If the price goes down he can't export inflation as quickly.
Why don't we have an energy policy ? Where is all the green energy they have been spouting for 40 years ?
Why do we have a trade imbalance ? Why don't we use our vast NG reserves to produce energy?
The answer is in the first sentance...........................
They don't have all the gold that they put out in paper and are doing everything possible to keep people from it. They keep pushing and pushing and the gold keeps going up by 30 or 40 dollars a day. They can't keep up fast enough without them essentially saying we don't have the gold.
It is amazing how the Au completely ignored this. Have we won in the gold market?
Written while cleaning my new AR-15 LE Carb
I've starting thinking about opening a 500 round tin of 7.62 X 39 just in case I need it in a hurry.
The game is to bunker and to never show a face that is well fed, or a PM that indicates you have other PMs. There was a ZH boy from the former Soviet Union and he wrote that the kiss of death was to show you had anything at all. That's when the gangs kidnapped your kids and took everything.
I have an AK-47 chambered in 12-gauge. It can fire 8 rounds of single O buck in 2,1 seconds. That equates to 96 .30 caliber pellets going down range in 2.1 seconds. That's good enough for me. I have a few other nasty boys, but I am a man of peace. Also, I don't anticipate engaging anyone at range, so shotguns are for me. It's all about waiting out the bad times. You don't need an arsenal for what is coming, you need to join with your neighbors, stack PMs, and have a boatload of food to wait out things. (Caveat: If you live within one days walk from a major urban city, you need an arsenal, or a bug out bag.)
On the other hand, TPTB don't benefit from bedlam. They have had 4 years to prepare for a new financial system, and they have no intention of letting chaos shake them loose from their postion of power. The bad times will be intense, but short in induration.
All you need is some ability to enforce the law, feed yourself, buy stuff, and transport your net worth into the new system. We will not experience Mad Max times that unshakle us from the parasites that control us. TPTB have their survival well in hand. (However, this is a highly leveraged situation in flux with no historical precedent, so don't blame me if I am completely wrong and a zombie eats your face).
The relationships you have with the people around you are much more important in a social meltdown than your personal arsenal of toys. If your neighborhood binds, you are safe from the next larger fish.
If I wasn't chin deep in 10 other movies....
I'd write a movie about a group who hacked ZH
got all the gold holders addresses and then had slick plans
to steal all their gold.
Oceans Infinity Bitchez!
AK-47 in 12 gauge?
You must mean Saiga 12. I wish I had one.
But do you only have an 8 round magazine? Do yourself a favor and get an MD-20 drum or two. They have 30 round drums, however the 20 round is heavy enough, but it gets light in a hurry! (according to what I've read).
Saiga-12S are prone to failure to eject issuesI've had mine worked on and it is reliable, but the bigger mags tend to add to unreliability. The 12 round stick mags are big enough.
Like the man said - "there has never been a meltdown where PMs didn't reclaim their rightful place of value, and never has the marauding horde worn assless chaps."
One of my obsessive compulsive habits is to load bags of magazines. Don't wanna be loading when the SHTF. I've heard its not good on the spring to store a fully loaded mag tho, best to load 27-28 in a 30 rounder. Have you guys seen this yet?
http://www.defensereview.com/micor-defense-leader-50-ultra-compact-light...
Man portable bullpup 50 BMG, Mmmmmm. Going to have to raid the cookie jar when this bad boy comes out.
For more up close and personal encounters, Kel Tec has a new bullpup 12gauge coming out that holds 15 rds. i think MSR will be about $850.
http://www.impactguns.com/kel-tec-ksg-12-ga-18in-barrel-shotgun-ksg.aspx
Thats why I prefer the SKS over the AK. Stripper clips don't have springs and they are cheap. Loading rounds into an SKS is faster than changing a loaded AK magazine and loading AK magazines is a pain in the hands. I can load all 500 rounds in stripper clips and bag them in a harness in less than an hour.
It depends upon the gun. My Sig P220 will spit out anything, but a more finicky gun will balk is the spring gets weak.
A good rule of thumb is to cycle your mags, and don't fully load them. The lesser tension on the spring will add greater reliability.
The average gunfight is less than 6 feet amd 1.2 seconds. Rambo thought won't work. Think more like Andy Griffith getting the good ole boys together and telling the crowds from the city to sit a spell and then move on, cuz we don't have any food either.
Also don't forget simple human charity. People moving through are real people and need your help. Also a lot of them can help you if you take the time to learn what they have to offer. If a real crash happens, you go from being a nothing little pawn, to being a potential hero and a leader. Don't turn feral.
OK, this isn't a preppers site, TPTB have had four year to engineer a soft landing. Let's all hope it works.
My research has lead me to the conclusion that the best storage is either fully loaded or not loaded at all... The gist, in most part, is that running rounds through the magazine causes the springs to wear, not keeping tight under pressure... too many fully loaded 1911 magazines having the dust knocked off of them decades later have been A-OK for me to put much faith in this thesis... obviously, not much sense in buying a ferrari and putting cheap gas in it... but still.
My research on the subject matches yours. It is the compression-decompression process that causes springs to fail.
I've heard that govt. M-14 20 rounders are rated for indefinite storage full. Anyway, I've always got at least 4 of those topped off and two 80 round bandoliers with strippers ready. I love me some M14.
I don't have one, but if I had a Glock, I would want to weaken the spring. The last couple in a 33 round fun-stick are a bitch even with a speed loader, or so I've read.