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Cognitive Dissonance Reigns As Risk Sentiment And Positioning Diverge

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It seems everywhere we look, talking heads are arguing that they expect a positive resolution to the EU debacle and yet market positioning does not suggest this is the case at all. Of course, we have seen snap-back rallies and sell-offs but the dissonance between the seeming consensus of unbridled optimism that European policy-makers 'get it' and the market's anxiety should be very worrisome - especially for the 'money-where-your-mouth-is' crowd. Morgan Stanley put it best recently as they noted their sense that most investors assume there will be some solution found (or put another way, very few assume that the alternative - a catastrophe of disorderly banking and sovereign defaults - is a base case) but few investors seem willing now to position for that benign outcome (most evidently seen in European Sovereign debt markets currently). Deutsche's Jim Reid is less optimistic but sees the same disconnect as he argues that at this point: "Who can honestly say they know exactly what rescue plans the EU governments are still discussing...".

 

Giving some broader context to the market's dissonance, Morgan Stanley (in their 2012 Cross-Asset Navigator) noted:

First, our sense is that most investors assume there will be some solution found – most likely with fiscal union and ECB support. Put another way, very few assume that the alternative – a catastrophe of disorderly banking and sovereign defaults – is a base case.

 

Second, despite the widely held view that catastrophe will be avoided, few investors seem willing now to position for that benign outcome. The most obvious example is European sovereign debt. Timing may be uncertain, but if the crisis is resolved, the outcome is not: yields on under-pressure sovereigns will be materially lower in a year. Conversely, bund yields would probably be higher. In short, a widely held consensus view is demonstrably not priced into asset markets because conviction levels are now so low.

 

Third, the consensus view that catastrophe will be avoided implicitly assumes that policy-makers – notably, Germany and the ECB – can and will do what it takes to preserve the union and avoid disorderly default. Anything that rattles those assumptions would be unequivocally bearish. That would include, for example, markets questioning Germany’s financial strength or the ECB ultimately refusing to provide the backstop to sovereign markets. More to the point, policy-makers have been reactive, not proactive, throughout the crisis. This has typically added to the cost of finding a solution. If events cascade – because of, say, downgrades to other important European countries – then markets may question whether policy-makers can retrieve control.

 

Fourth, as it stands now, we expect recession in Europe as a base case. Our macro colleagues believe that if there is not a fairly quick move to fiscal union, with ECB expanding its support for under-pressure sovereigns, then the recession will be deep – something not in the price. The tail risk to that bear scenario would be depression.

 

Finally, while Europe’s current situation reflects in part its peculiar institutional structure, it is not unique in terms of its leverage.

That has two follow-on implications. First, even if the European crisis is ‘resolved’, it’s only in the sense that Europe would look more like other highly leveraged regions: still facing a difficult end-game, but without the fragilities that frustrated policy-makers’ ability to kick the can down the road, as has happened elsewhere. Second, with markets now generally more alert to sovereign stress, and global growth slowing, it may be that the surprise of 2012 is that sovereign stress spreads beyond Europe to other developed economies.

 

And From Deutsche's Early Morning Reid:

Before we start today, who can honestly say they know exactly what rescue plans the European Governments are still discussing and which ones have fallen by the wayside never to be seen again. It’s extremely hard to keep up at the moment and extremely hard to analyse as even if ideas never see the light of day their mere discussion seems to have the ability to move markets. For example the four times levered EFSF package and insurance scheme of two months has been gradually fading from view and any remaining hopes probably subsided with S&P's negative credit rating watch listing on the EFSF yesterday following the previous night's negative rating watches on 15 EU sovereigns. This potential bailout plan was huge news at the time. Since then we've had speculation about Chinese/EM involvement, the IMF, ECB loans to the IMF, bilateral agreements, creating a central financial authority, joint Euro-area bonds, AAA-only ‘Elite Bonds’, making the EFSF a bank, making the EFSF co-invest in a SPV that could access ECB liquidity, using the EIB as a SPV, the Fed being involved, ongoing debates about the role of the ECB and now a slow march towards treaty changes. If we've left any out please let us know.

 

We admit to being fairly confused as to where we stand at the moment and the latest plan reported in the FT late in the US session yesterday is for there to be a package based around the EFSF, the ESM and maybe then the IMF. It is reported that allowing the ESM to run alongside the EFSF could strengthen Europe’s financial firewall when combined with new eurozone funds from the IMF. Under the plans being considered, the ESM is unlikely to have its headline €500bn from the start but the hope is that combining this with new IMF resources and a leveraged EFSF (to about €600bn) could create the “bazooka” effect leaders have been searching for.

 

We keep moving in circles trying out different permutations and combinations but in reality where is all this money going to come from? Is this all just a distraction to the fact that the ECB is the only agent with the financial flexibility to ensure that all nation states can refinance?

 

We don't think there is any chance of a quick fix to all of this. Although the market is getting more optimistic, even Merkel commented last Friday that the only real solution to Europe’s debt crisis was a fuller fiscal union, a process that will take years.

 

Investors are rightly confused and we agree with Reid that we don't think there is any chance of a quick fix to all of this. Furthermore, we fear that any belief in a reversion to pre-crisis levels of sovereign risk on the back of a solution is a pipe-dream as it is clear that risk premia are embedded now (like skews in options prices post 1987) and it is far more likely that Europe stabilizes at much wider levels - more like other leveraged regions.

 

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Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:01 | 1954936 Forgiven
Forgiven's picture

Exactly.  For those that don't see it.  Wake up! That's not bird doo falling, that's the sprinkles of a pending SHITSTORM.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:02 | 1954943 AngryGerman
AngryGerman's picture

...so, bullish?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:04 | 1954949 Hansel
Hansel's picture

That's what I read.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:06 | 1954957 AngryGerman
AngryGerman's picture

can't be anything else!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:11 | 1954983 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Perpetual motion +1

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:14 | 1954986 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Oh yes, saving leveraged paper with even more leveraged paper and then taxing the trades on such paper.  Is there an ETF that allows us to bet on the half-life of this solution?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:19 | 1955006 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Sure.

It's the "EFSF ESM Insufficient Funds We R Fd 3X Beta ETF".

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:39 | 1955082 MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

...and IT'S GONE!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 13:04 | 1955217 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Try Gartmans new ETF's:

Risk On  - ONN

Risk Off - OFF

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 14:19 | 1955494 hbjork1
hbjork1's picture

It is not really Bernanke's fault.  It is in large part the faux Ivy League liberall arts financial education.  We the people have bowed down to it and pronounced it great. 

The problem is that 1, the people in these jobs need more time in the real workaday world. 

And 2. We must stop rewarding white color crime.  We all think we can get a cut.  Fact is, we aren't.  Instead we are going to pay. 

If I could have the buying power of my early IRAs and savings back, I wouldn' care about my SC medical or other payments. 

 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 14:39 | 1955570 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I think you're using the term "liberal arts" a bit loosely.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:07 | 1954960 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

The potential for outrageous profiteering off insider information boggles the mind.

Who is making money here....probably dark pools. Nuts if you can shake the global financial markets with the rumor of a supposed rumor's rumor. Even shrooming pennies in the seconds before an announcement breaks.

Fingerprints must be all over.

ORI

/the-plan/

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:08 | 1954965 AngryGerman
AngryGerman's picture

you don't get the emails? sorry for you...

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:09 | 1954967 Momauguin Joe
Momauguin Joe's picture

Bullish for WWIII.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:04 | 1954947 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

there are never quick fixes to structural problems.  EZ bonds have been mispriced for the last 15 years. 

 

Merkozy wants to make us forgot this glaring fact with quick fixes.  Someone should send Rompuy a christmas card with the parable about the boy & the dyk.e

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:09 | 1954971 slackrabbit
slackrabbit's picture

There you go again!....always with the reason, the logic and common sence!!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 14:04 | 1955460 CPL
CPL's picture

Agreed, how dare he makes sense like that.

 

Take the +1 and like it!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:04 | 1954948 SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

C.D. - Where are you?  You should be all over this self-titled post...

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:21 | 1955011 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

That was my thought also, "Cog Dis Reigns..."?  Great, finally some leadership we can count on! 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:22 | 1955022 Teapot_Dome
Teapot_Dome's picture

 

I got a little falsely excited thinking this would be a new C.D. post.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 13:30 | 1955339 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Actually for a second there I was wondering who ripped off one of my unpublished pieces.

Time to change my password to something more complicated than "GoldSilverFoodGuns&Ammo". Next time it will be "CheckAllSightLinesInAdvance". :>)

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 13:26 | 1955321 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Sorry. Slept late and ignored the world until it's screaming could be put off no longer. But it looks like Tyler covered all the talking points anyway.

Now can I go back to bed? It's a cold rainy late Fall day here. :)

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:06 | 1954954 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Today is the last chance for the bears.

More than likely, the Eurozone problems will be fixed by Friday

And stocks will start moving tomorrow frontrunning the news

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:07 | 1954963 AngryGerman
AngryGerman's picture

robo! you little overoptimistic sneaky bastard. don't spoil the surprise...

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:27 | 1955034 narapoiddyslexia
narapoiddyslexia's picture

So Greece and the others aren't going to default after all? Whew, I was worried there for a second. Thanks, Robo. Its good to know its all over. Friday fixes everything. I'm going to write that down, by the way. With your name on it.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:09 | 1954973 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Hahaha! Funny stuff.

And all of the problems here in the United States of Amerikkka were "fixed" with TARP. And with the QE family. And with TALF. And so on.

I guess you're on your way over there to help man the printing presses. Be sure to French-kiss your mom good-bye.

Not that you don't already do that everytime you go out for another supply of Cheez Doodles.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:11 | 1954979 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Couldn't agree more.

Everything and everyone will be backstopped. It will be awesome. Gravity has been suspended. 

Time for Money Mangers to make their benchmarks and their bonuses.

Don't be sore buy some more! Don't just double down use a bunch of leverage and triple down. Afterall failure has been made illegal!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:16 | 1954992 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

We're approaching the singularity. On the other side, pure positive thought will manifest itself as reality. Negative thought will be washed away and destroyed. We will all merge as one collective consciousness, eternally contemplating the latest generation holy iPad.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:30 | 1955041 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Singularity was what I thought when I saw your perpetual motion +1 post, above.

Change will happen so fast, even the HFTbots will be unable to keep up.

Should be a real hoot.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 13:13 | 1955257 Sunshine n Lollipops
Sunshine n Lollipops's picture

Multiple singularities of positive negativity!

AKA, massive debt = massive bonuses! 

Ohmmmm.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:30 | 1955042 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

timmah is traversing the EU

er, make that greasing the EU

historically-speaking, of course

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:17 | 1955001 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

I'm so fucking tempted to buy some LNKD and CRM puts today, not sure I can stop myself. What to do?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:31 | 1955045 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Invest in your favorite spirits and get drunk instead. Far more productive, as well as less stressful.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 13:24 | 1955298 Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

FWIW I closed out my LNKD short.  Still have a strategy but not just yet.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 13:59 | 1955441 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

I almost pulled the trigger on LNKD last Thursday. Glad I waited, but it is awfully tempting right now.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:19 | 1955003 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

MomoFaded youll never get back to DOW 12,700 where you went all in long....you are fucked.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:45 | 1955115 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

12.7K? You're being too nice. The dude was long at 14k..

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:45 | 1955113 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

The only thing fixed is this stock market.

You're the poker player everyone wants to play with - you're always willing to go all in with the worst hands.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:07 | 1954962 slackrabbit
slackrabbit's picture

I have spoken to my Yoda doll, and I can tell you this problem will be fixed by Friday!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:26 | 1955030 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

My Magic 8 Ball confirms that:"It is certain".

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:09 | 1954969 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

This doesn't read like a CD post. I smell an imposter.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 13:42 | 1955387 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Tyler is the original CD as far as I'm concerned. He certainly creates Cognitive Dissonance on a daily basis.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:10 | 1954972 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Cognitive Dissonance Reigns

Congratulations, CD!  You deserve it.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 13:40 | 1955380 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Does the position come with an obscene salary and benefits? And am I paid in fiat or Precious Metals?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 14:06 | 1955466 CPL
CPL's picture

Hand shakes and "job well done" is all the powers that be are offering after stealing anything not nailed down.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:12 | 1954984 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Two big stick saves already today as the half life for saving leveraged paper with even more leveraged paper gets exponentially shorter.  Well it's been fun profiting from all this market volitility, time to get some more physical and small denominations of cash.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:19 | 1955004 A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

I'm buying the dips like a madman. So far I'm stocked up on bean, cheddar, clam, onion, fry sauce and guacamole.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:14 | 1954987 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Sell the news either way ...

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 14:07 | 1955472 CPL
CPL's picture

Everybody DEAD!!!  DJIA up to 16000

Everyone rich!!  DJIA up to 16000

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:14 | 1954988 vegas
vegas's picture

Who cares?

CFTC fines Merrill 350K for cotton futures violations. I feel better now. [They must need new copiers or something]

 

http://vegasxau.blogspot.com

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:33 | 1955055 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Gotta polish up that facade every once in a while, especially with the election year shake-down cycle underway.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:16 | 1954989 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

You're dreaming if you think Euro has a quick fix even in mind. That's the window dressing, the polite words meant to encourage a stiff upper lip. 

Here in the US the cheerleading is particularly intense, painting a still rosy picture on the gloom that exists in Euro land. But there's no escaping the basic reality that there's very little high ground left in the global economy. Those that are fortunate enough to be still doing ok will cling for dear life. And will not jeopardize that to save the countless millions who are looking for support. Even those countries that seem to be "doing well" have lots of worry just right under the surface. That's check mate for fiscal union

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:40 | 1955091 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

The news recently reported that the amusement park, "Santa Claus Land" is closing after 50 years of operation.

Seems as though Euro Land is following their heels pretty closely!

Who knew that Santa Claus Land would be the leading indicator of the EU's demise?  

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:49 | 1955136 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

That is the worst news I've heard all day. Opened 1957, closed 1 week before Xmas. A definite indicator

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 13:23 | 1955303 Sunshine n Lollipops
Sunshine n Lollipops's picture

A sad, but unavoidable fate for fantasy worlds. Bernankeedoodle Land is next.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:15 | 1954990 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45582369

"...what may have seemed like timid or even bumbling leadership is looking more like a consistent strategy of brinkmanship aimed at remaking the euro zone in Germany’s likeness."

So, tell me again, history buffs - exactly who *won* WWII?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:17 | 1955000 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

I've been right so far. Germany is not in as secure and solid a position as some would like to believe. They have lots to worry about. THis week's bank nationalization is but an intro to the scope of it

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:19 | 1955007 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

The bankers and the one world government folks won WWII and further strengthened their position(s) with the creation of the U.N. and I.M.F., fucking DUH!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:37 | 1955070 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

Germany's job is simply to serve as the water carrier and errand boy for the globalist banksters....they tell even GERMANY to jump and how high!  Germany is simply the designated "bully on the playground" to force stronger economic integration.  That's all!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:23 | 1955023 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

I'll bite. Germany got there ass kicked.

This has little to do with German history but has more to do with the Germans work ethic and the morals of not taking government funds for little to no work. Which is not the norm in the rest of Europe. It is the same work ethic that the US has also had for years. Hopefully we don't lose that ideal.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:40 | 1955086 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Are you fucking stoned?  government funds (PUBLIC wealth) have been bailing out PRIVATE entities and wealthy individuals who made "unethical" trades and bad investments for quite some time now.  Wake the fuck up dude!  Troll harder next time.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 13:00 | 1955189 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Germany is so far not Greece. Not Ireland, Not Italy, Not Spain. Not Portugal. Not a typical European profligate. Why do you think they are asking for Germany to bail the rest out.

Wide awake and I've been here as long as anyone btw.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 13:08 | 1955237 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Germany's actually in no position to bail anyone out

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 13:45 | 1955353 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Agreed, but their economy had been growing unlike so many others in Europe.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 13:22 | 1955300 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

So, like myself, you must be wondering when the fraud will be prosecuted and when anyone in power is actually going to uphold the rule of law?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 13:57 | 1955432 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Absolutely. The fraud is going to be doubled down on. Don't think for a second that Beranke and Geithner are just going to go away without a huge battle. If your short like I am it's tough but we all know how this will end.

I'm still confused about your above comment on me though. I was going to add until a recent president came along but I'm not wanting to be political.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:34 | 1955059 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Wall St.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:17 | 1954998 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Everyone is pricing in great news out of Eurozone'...

GUARANTEED to disappoint... I dont hear any talk about $5+ trillion free dollars, and no one cares to hear tales of Europes promise of a spring cleaning re-arranging of furniture and croquet wickets. This is all bullshit people.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:21 | 1955014 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

So, buy those LNKD and CRM puts I've been drooling over? Fuck, I've got an itchy trigger finger but I can't trust those bastards to either fuck up or blow some mind-numbing smoke. Might be time to flip a coin.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:23 | 1955024 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Thats the only thing, you cant trust them! 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:20 | 1955013 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

NYSE Summation Index is in an uptrend again

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/McSumNYSE.html

 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:33 | 1955053 somethingisrotten
somethingisrotten's picture

MoMo Lizard, you must be very good at studying payout trends at the slot machines because that is what this "market" casino is.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:44 | 1955112 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

NYSE Summation index is fast becoming the contrary indicator of the real economy. Here we are, over 2 years into an expansion cycle after a sharp contraction, and US GDP is hovering near 1% with inflation running 3%. What's wrong with this picture? 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:22 | 1955021 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

If the world was going to fall apart this week...

GOOG would not be at $620 and AAPL would not be at $390

And don't even get me started on the shopping center REITS like SPG

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:28 | 1955025 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I see....so AFTER GOOG and APPLE fall way way down....THEN we can expect impending trouble? But then....wont it be a BIT too late for one of your great 'rear view mirror' market predictions?

Who said the world is going to fall apart this week? Jeez...quit being such a little drama queen all the time!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:27 | 1955027 somethingisrotten
somethingisrotten's picture

However, I've got news for you MoMo Lizard, that is EXACTLY when you can expect the world to fall apart - when these stocks have been passed to the greater fool at high prices.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:27 | 1955031 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Yes, because everyone can see beforehand when the world is going to fall apart. That's why you never hear anyone say, "No one could have seen it coming."

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:30 | 1955044 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Isnt that funny how that works? Every time markets unhinge and tank, everyone always says 'No one out there saw this coming, we're shocked!'

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 20:50 | 1956828 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

What they really mean is:  "No one could have seen this coming...TODAY!" -- but come, it will.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:32 | 1955049 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Robodude, you are nothing but a lemming. Good luck to you...

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:43 | 1955101 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

and at half those prices you could say that things had already fallen apart, but its too late then, heh MoMo?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:43 | 1955103 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

The time will come when you will have to justify to your clients why your losses are exceedingly greater than gains from your after-the-fact predictions. It may not be today, but it will be soon.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:40 | 1955083 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

there is no market there, unless you consider the 'thieves market' where the Fed sells bonds stolen from the taxpayer, and the corporations and bankers buy and sell stocks in a complex kiting scheme.  the only thing that will shut down a thieves market is a concentrated effort to arrest and convict the criminals, which is what almost happened in 2008, the last time assets were marked to market and banksters pissed their pants. for just a moment there a few Congressmen refused to go along, but it quickly passed because nothing soothes a Congressmans conscience as fast as a bit of stolen booty.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:42 | 1955099 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Exactly.  the contrarian trade here really is to bet on the primary dealers, PMs, and WWIII.  Congress is a circus for the sheep.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:54 | 1955159 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

Those are the three best ideas I have seen, frontrun the curve on QE3, buy Precious Metals and stocks on the start of war with Iran (cakewalk II) this one will be easier than Iraq, because this time no boots on the ground, just take them out from the air and keep taking them out until Disney and Starbucks get a franchise. Can't wait to hear Congressional opposition to the sneak attack on Tehran. (sorry you missed it)

and that would certainly get the peoples minds off the bad economy and get Congress off the banksters ass.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 12:52 | 1955146 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Like the spoon boy , those who see clearly understand there is no market

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 13:22 | 1955301 YoDudeRock
YoDudeRock's picture

"Roadhouse".

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 13:32 | 1955348 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Technically speaking, the market is too overextended to be too immediately optimistic.  If a "resolution" brings a sharp rally, it should be promptly sold.  If it doesn't, it should be promptly sold.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 20:55 | 1956844 StychoKiller
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