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Commodities Inverse Plunge As Treasuries Catch Up To Stocks

Tyler Durden's picture




 

We are 30 minutes into the day session. Do you know where your sanity is? Silver and Oil (over $102) are up 3.5% from last week's close, Copper and Gold up 1.5-2% and the USD down 0.7%. The USD weakness, along with Treasury selling, is enough to juice stocks up nicely as they catch up to yesterday's European extravaganza. European sovereigns are giving back a lot of their gains from yesterday so far but ECB buying chatter is supporting BTPs at the moment. US financials are up 2.8% as the Treasury-Stock disconnect of last week converges rapidly.

Oil is nearing its mid-Nov and mid-Dec highs - which would take it back to six-month highs as Gold inches ever closer to $1600 once again (hitting $1598 intrday this morning).

The disconnect from 'normality' that we occurred late last week (the orange oval indicates the typical correlated relationship) between stocks and bonds has converged considerably this morning already as Treasuries sell-off to equity's ebullience. Stocks and the USD are linked at the hip once again - after some disconnect into the close of the new year. Arguably stocks remain a little over-exuberant relative to broad risk assets here - especially as Spanish spreads (among others) are well off their best levels of the day.

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:02 | 2028592 tallen
tallen's picture

Time to stack that silver!

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:03 | 2028596 Matevski
Matevski's picture

Bought Silver Eagles for 4.000 federal-reserve-crap right at the dip last week.

 

*applauding myself*

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:07 | 2028614 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

golf clap

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:07 | 2028610 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Has passed already!

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:03 | 2028595 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Sanity is overrated.

Lithum makes the charts a lot prettier.

+500 today.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:05 | 2028598 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Yum yum eat 'em up! 

With all the free money sloshing around we have time for a little mania party

Till the bill comes due and we realize it's us that have to pay for it all

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:07 | 2028616 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

rest assured!!

THEY PROMISED THAT OUR KIDS WILL PAY FOR IT ALL AND NOT US!!!

 

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:10 | 2028626 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

I think this is the year we'll all realize it's our kids AND us as the economy sours and life get harder  for anyone but the 1%

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:04 | 2028599 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

PROZAK FOR EVERYBODY!!!!!!

 

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:07 | 2028613 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Zoloft.

It's all about price staaa beee lee tea...

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 20:54 | 2030999 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

How about some Thorazine to wash that down, followed by the usual dose of Corruptol?

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:05 | 2028603 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

So the treasury surge was end of the year window dressing.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:13 | 2028635 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

but Robo Trader said it was all due to the insatiable appetite for US Treasuries...

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:33 | 2028699 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

That and someone wanted to see silver actually post a loss from 1/1/2011 - 1/1/2012.

 

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:05 | 2028605 oogs66
oogs66's picture

Spain is a mess, people too busy shorting that to bother with Italy. 

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:12 | 2028628 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

That factor-of-two deficit "booboo" was a doozy, yeah.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:06 | 2028606 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Go, Team Icarus!

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:07 | 2028609 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture


 

Happy days are here again
The skies above are clear again
So let's sing a song of cheer again
Happy days are here again

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Happy_Days_Are_Here_Again

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:10 | 2028625 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

those lucky Spanish people with all their vacation time....

I only have 37 paid vacation days...

AND MOST OF THEM HAVE 365 PAID VACATION DAYS!!!

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:15 | 2028647 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

as soon as they find out, they'll go on strike to protest to be compensated for the one day every 4 years on LEAP YEARS...

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:16 | 2028649 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

37!? For Pete's sake don't tell the Yanks. Now get ready to be called a lazy bitch...

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:34 | 2028702 jomama
jomama's picture

yeah, try 15. 20 at five years tenure.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:39 | 2028718 Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

Those of us who are self-employed get ZERO paid vacation days. But we can take as many as we like. On the other hand, the boss is an incompetent bastard.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:08 | 2028611 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

So what happens when Ben denys all these hungry QE3 front-runners at 2PM? 

Looking at the leveraged ETF's, someone is selling this rally.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:19 | 2028652 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

"No Stairway?... DENIED!"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RD1KqbDdmuE

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:07 | 2028612 Manthong
Manthong's picture

"European sovereigns are giving back a lot of their gains from yesterday so far but ECB buying chatter is supporting BTPs at the moment"

 

What's symbol for the ETF that trades ECB chatter?

 

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:22 | 2028667 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

FORK... Then there's the 3x ETF symbol LIE

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:07 | 2028615 Tortfeasor
Tortfeasor's picture

QE3 pre-announced to the TBTF?

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:10 | 2028624 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

QE3 re-expected by the TDTS (too dumb to succeed).

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:13 | 2028634 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Now that the entire Fed board are all doves I think we know what to expect.

When Doves Laugh- 4 Weeks Until The Quiet Coup In The Fed Gives QE3 A Green Light:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/when-doves-laugh-4-weeks-until-quiet-coup-fed-gives-qe3-green-light

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 13:38 | 2028886 xela2200
xela2200's picture

And when doves cry, Prince makes another million.

How can u just leave me standing?
Alone in a world that's so cold? (So cold)
Maybe I'm just 2 demanding
Maybe I'm just like my father 2 bold
Maybe you're just like my mother
She's never satisfied (She's never satisfied)
Why do we scream at each other
This is what it sounds like
When doves cry

 

Sorry, I am in a stupid mood today. It must be the new year spirit.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:21 | 2028663 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

absolutely - qe3 announced to the banks.  these swings are amazing, where bac is up 5% - trades like the penny stock it should be.  how in any way does any of this resemble 'investing'?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-03/did-psychopaths-take-over-wall-street-asylum-commentary-by-william-cohan.html

 

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 13:36 | 2028966 xela2200
xela2200's picture

Real money coming back from vacation?

Public Corporations behaving like psychopaths has been mentioned several times before. It has to do with the disconnect between management of the company and ownership. Basically, You have all employee ran companies where the only purpose is profit. First thing they taught me in business school. On the other side you have investors as opposed to owners who interested in capital appreciation. Therefore, the resulting entity becomes a psychopath that requires constant guidance or regulations to be kept on check if at all possible. As long as there is no law for dumping extremely toxic chemicals on lakes, then there is no problem. I am just doing my job (moral justification).

Owners in private entities tend to provide a moral compass or empathy for what their organizations (business) are doing. The movie Puncture makes passive mention of glass syringes, and the resistance by a business owner to switch over to plastic. Glass syringes can be sterilized by heat whereas plastic cannot. Today in Africa, plastic syringes are boiled in an attempt to sterilize them, and they are reused. Is the incidence of HIV on babies in Africa a cause of sexual behavior or unsterilized needles? Hum.... God must hate them just like the gay.

 

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:08 | 2028617 vegas
vegas's picture

Let's see if Iran fires a couple of missiles to get crude above $103 so that the market can then hit their sell orders. That will be mission accomplished and thank you very much Western Idiot Power Amerika for playing.

 

http://vegasxau.blogspot.com

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:13 | 2028636 jomama
jomama's picture

but i thought gold was in a bubble?

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:14 | 2028638 Vaiman
Vaiman's picture

All the indices are screaming Overbought   Overbought  Overbought at major resistance......AGAIN....lol!!! 

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:14 | 2028640 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Suppression machines slow starting up after the holidays.  We'll be back down before long.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:36 | 2028708 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Time for me to get levered long.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 12:04 | 2028797 tmosley
tmosley's picture

As usual, you have learned nothing.  What happened to the last set of folks who were levered long?

MF Global'd.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:17 | 2028641 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

With a little more money printing and saber rattling let's see how quick we can get WTI to $150. That should put the economy on stable footing.

<on average> Every $10 dollar increase in oil reduces U.S GDP by .5%. Letz get ze poty stoted

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:15 | 2028642 The Axe
The Axe's picture

Except for Nat.Gas   another new LOW...every week..even today..with all this hype...down another 52 week low...Nat Gas stocks are way overprice..just like nat gas...

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:20 | 2028660 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

2.936 is like givinig it away for free. 

Look at the price in Dec 2005...so funny when looking at todays prices.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:22 | 2028666 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Anyone that thinks USTs are safe are morons.  They are backed with faith and creit, which is like "Hope and Change", and by now, everyone should know how that works out.

With Japan and China and Russia now trading freely without the dollar, it is important that Bernanke releases his Green Chute upon the world and flood said world with dollars to make sure he pays back Timmah's UST on the penny.  This was a main reason for the Euro Mess; it isn't just about Europe.  Remember to watch the LH while the RH is moving.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:24 | 2028672 monopoly
monopoly's picture

So glad I never short this broken market.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:29 | 2028688 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

Still short Dow from 11500.. Bring the pain BITCHEZ!

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:53 | 2028767 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

So glad someone is making it cheaper to short this market.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWuXmfgXVxY

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:25 | 2028676 alchemystic
alchemystic's picture

Did silver this morning, starting at about 6:30, Begin forming an upside down head and shoulder, if so, does this signal a larger move up?

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 11:32 | 2028696 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

If you cross your eyes slightly and focus on the center, it sort of resembles a inverted reverse cowgirl.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 12:00 | 2028784 navy62802
navy62802's picture

I really hate when people who are "experts" come out and declare a gold bear market, then when this sort of thing happens, they never have to explain why they were dead wrong.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 12:06 | 2028804 tmosley
tmosley's picture

A one day rise or fall does not make or break a bull or bear market.  With a six month sustained fall, one could make an argument for a bear market emerging, but even that is quite premature.  

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 12:41 | 2028948 navy62802
navy62802's picture

I agree with the sustained fall argument. But it isn't even down for the most recent 6-month period. I just hate when the bloviators see gold down for a day or two and jump on the bandwagon to instantly proclaim a bear market.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 12:13 | 2028825 sbenard
sbenard's picture

Grains exploded higher this morning also! I'm sure its just coincidental! Corn up 11, beans up 28, wheat up 12.

Tue, 01/03/2012 - 13:17 | 2029156 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

Poor snowfall in plains and midwest - forecasts for poor crops come summertime ?

DBA soaring ?

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