Commodity Unwind Continues As Global Liquidity Scramble Accelerates

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Wed, 12/14/2011 - 10:42 | 1978404 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Gold, come to papa....

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 10:44 | 1978415 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

That's why I looked at the chats, saw a repeat of August 2008 and came to this conclusion:

 

The Coming Collapse might be your Final Chance to Legally Buy Physical Gold this Decade

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 10:48 | 1978437 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

gold will do you no good during a collapse.  Talk to Venezeluans, or people who've gone through a civil war.  You need items you can barter.

 

canned goods.  gold means nothing to a mother with a starving child.  She will give herself to a gang for powdered milk.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 10:49 | 1978446 kito
kito's picture

cash will be king during a deflationary collapse. keep lots and lots on hand............

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 10:52 | 1978462 trav7777
trav7777's picture

nah; they'll just print it like Japan has for 20 years

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 10:57 | 1978489 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

I suppose that I'll just hold my nose... and BTFD!

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 11:42 | 1978780 Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

@Dorm

The collapse of Venezuela in 2001 was localized to... well Venezuela. We are on the verge of a multi-detonation, global collapse of the entire western banking system along with all of it's sovereign governments. Even the holder of the world's reserve currency has ingested poison to the tune of 100% debt to GDP ratio and an economy that its present administration has managed to slow to a crawl.

Few analysts are now arguing that a worst case scenario is off the table, and I think most of them are wildly optimistic. This means the final "backstop" will be the US Federal Reserve burning up the printing presses to bail out the world (when the only tool you have is a hammer, everything has dents in it). This will obviously fail and massive printing will hyperinflate always does. Cash is trash and Gold is king during those times. Knowing this we have a chance to be ahead of the curve. Buy physical, firearms (with boucoup ammo), and food.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 12:26 | 1979018 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

Huh, some of us play chess and think three steps ahead. Others like Dorm just happen to play tiddlywinks. We'll see how it plays out in the end.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 14:36 | 1979624 Hard1
Hard1's picture

Now, silver at -7.7% today confirms that silver is poor man's gold and holders will remain as such. BTW central banks are subsidizing your chance to buy gold on the cheap before they run out of options.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 11:22 | 1978646 MissCellany
MissCellany's picture

Sure, they probably will. But they won't give it out to regular folks if they can possibly help it.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 12:14 | 1978972 agent default
agent default's picture

They are printing, they are just not talking about it.  We are in the middle of this huge debt crisis, the US is running record deficits and debts, and the Bernank manages to keep interest rates at record low levels?  How does he do that?  It just shows how stupid the markets are actually.  Then they will wake up one day and say "Oh shit they have been printing all along" and everything will explode.  And if you are in cash you will be terribly damaged.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 10:52 | 1978464 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Do you honestly believe that the Fed will sit on its AZZ and do nothing with an election year coming up and riots in our streets?

Hell no.

Come the February-March 2012 time period, once Greece is out of the EU and Ireland is voting on it, the Fed will print like a mother.

And by print, I'm not talking QE 1 or QE 2; I'm talking a coordinated effort with the BOE, ECB, SNB, BoJ, and politicians in D.C. to re-liquify the system with north of $2 trillion.

Because the alternative is worse for the short term, they don't care about the long term.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 10:55 | 1978474 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

they are stuck between a rock & a hard place.

 

If they print, we'll get high-hyperinflation.  And it'll reck a number of economies, including many allies.

 

What will happen in America when there are 75M people on foodstamps?  There will be serious domestic political implications.  Every day there will be protests.

 

If they dont' print, we get another great recession.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 10:56 | 1978482 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

It won't be a recession this time.

It will be the total deflationary destruction of our economic and political system resulting in something far worse than the political elites can tolerate.

Again, look at the calender:

The election is less than 12 months away.

That is all these idiots care about.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 11:01 | 1978499 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

high-hyper inflation will turn American into a police state.  Already they are militarizing police. Already the surveillance & detention apparatrus are setup: NDAA,  domestic drones, Carrier IQ monitoring cellphone data.

 

If America doesn't head into a great recession, it's headed towards a police state.  I'd rather live in a deflationary environment with liberty, than a police state.

 

Though, the police state may unfold in a great recession too.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 11:09 | 1978558 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

'high-hyper inflation will turn American into a police state.'

Firstly 'high-hyperinflation' is redundant. Second, hyperinflation is a political event not economic. See Hugh Hendry's excellent King World news interview from a couple years back or speak with people who lived through it like Yugoslavians. 

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 11:21 | 1978637 pods
pods's picture

Headed towards a police state?

Head into a great recession?

You are living in the past.

pods

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 11:31 | 1978719 EvryInternational
EvryInternational's picture

Hiya pods.  Been a long time since da bear...

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 12:05 | 1978914 pods
pods's picture

Yes it has.  Haven't been there in a long time!

Sorry to go, but it is what it is.

pods

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 11:24 | 1978668 EvryInternational
EvryInternational's picture

Hyperinflation will turn American into a police state.

So will massive, system-seizing deleveraging and financial market collapse if they don't.

 

This is the crux of the matter.  The outcome only changes depending on how much they print, but the final social effect differences are negligible.  Police state is here and ramping up.  Just imagine what it will be like with starving masses and a dead economy - something that happens no matter how much printing occurs.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 11:43 | 1978795 Strut
Strut's picture

Sorry bud, but we're already there.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 12:38 | 1979070 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

You realize that there are land barons already in place...  you'd simply be trading drones for whips in a deflationary environment...  this is where the spoils of the wealth gap really get to be utilized (because the political structure has deflated as well and will be more local or very local with regional feudal lords).  If we're going to talk about extremes...

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 11:00 | 1978501 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Let commodities fall a little, so when the next round of "printing" is announced the new highs won't come as fast.  Consolidation is good for long term bull markets.

China demand may fall a little as their real estate market implodes.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 11:55 | 1978856 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

I am trying to buy the dip, but my dealer aint selling!

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 12:16 | 1978979 I Got Worms
I Got Worms's picture

I hear you - payday is tomorrow and wanted to buy my usual 5 oz of silver. But I already know the coin shop won't have a single dime in the joint tomorrow at these prices, and so not even worth the trip.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 12:23 | 1979009 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

My sources are sure buying, but they are not selling. Think they know something?

I know stuff too....but I fear we may drop some more before I go all in.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 13:46 | 1979352 dirtbagger
dirtbagger's picture

Don't hold your breath - the Greek crises has been going on now for almost 2 years.  Waiting for the  "inevitable crash" is like watching paint dry.   It took Rome a couple of hundred years to finally implode and disintegrate.   There is a good chance that we may all be long dead before everything in the Western World falls apart.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 10:58 | 1978491 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Sorry, when they even announce the liquidity program, even before instituting it, raw material prices will surge. And another turn of the biflationary rack will further kill the buying power of the middle class. Because by now after 2.5 QEs and doing the Twist we have seen that net worth and incomes don't rise despite monetary expansion. Only the price of paper and paper-backed stuff. And that's the stuff of revolutions and geopolitical instability. So it's now down to the very short term

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 11:55 | 1978855 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Actually...Benny was appointed by a republican. I seriously doubt an election year makes a difference to him. He'll just keep printing no matter which party is in office. We may be on QE5 or 6 by election day.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 11:18 | 1978621 Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

cash will be king during a deflationary collapse

Yeah... I'm guessing that when the price of real estate, farms, bread, crude oil, cattle, & metals all drop to ZERO during the deflationary collapse, I'll be sitting pretty with my $1 bill...

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 10:51 | 1978460 My Taint
My Taint's picture

You can't help them. The meme of goldbug love is unstoppable.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 10:53 | 1978467 trav7777
trav7777's picture

you can barter yourself out of the country with gold

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 12:44 | 1979108 Mesquite
Mesquite's picture

TSA...

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 11:01 | 1978497 RSDallas
RSDallas's picture

Dorm,

I agree.  A lot of people have discounted what Pletcher has been preaching from the start of this and that is that there will not be any safe havens during the final unwind.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 11:01 | 1978500 Falcon15
Falcon15's picture

Dorm, two words: wealth transition. Gold has no use in the throes of a massive collapse. I concur. However 6000 years of history show that gold and silver are stores of value. Smaller and more portable than a case of canned goods. Highly compact wealth that, when - and it would happen - a new system is put in place to replace the old. That new system may be well gold & silver money (not paper at all), it may be paper backed by gold and silver, but one will be instituted eventually. Based on historical precedent and plain, old fashioned common sense, having gold and silver in hand is a wealth preservation/transitional move.

If you make it through a collapse to the other side, you have a ready store of widely accepted and quickly converted or useable wealth now.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 11:04 | 1978528 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

I agree with everything you've written. karma +1

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 11:28 | 1978696 potatomafia
potatomafia's picture

Unless the mother HAS gold to use to buy food/necessities...

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 11:39 | 1978771 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

@ DORM ROOM

"canned goods.  gold means nothing to a mother with a starving child"

These items have expiration dates and slow you down when you want to be on the go. I was in Venezuela a few times and with a few gold coins you can buy the whole neighborhood. Those who produce these goods only want gold or silver.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 12:08 | 1978919 pine_marten
pine_marten's picture

I agree with you Dorm.  If you have plenty of all practical supplies, gold may give you a nice store of wealth when the upheavel is over.  But you have to be able to defend it.  In the middle of complete anarchy, a hoard of gold would glow white hot, particularly if you had tried using it to aquire staples in your area.  You would be in more peril than some idiot who found a suitcase of smack and tried dealing it in the hood. 

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 12:41 | 1979089 trav7777
trav7777's picture

your statements are totally wrong unless you live around people who are fucking thieves and robbers.

If you live in the HOOD, expect HOOD type outcomes.  If you live around the type of people who are typically in the HOOD, you will get HOOD behavior.  The reason the HOOD is like it is is because of the PEOPLE there.

Poverty DOES NOT CAUSE CRIME

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 17:42 | 1980586 pakled
pakled's picture

Desparate people do desparate things...

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 13:53 | 1979401 stuman
stuman's picture

I actually think there's quite a bit of validity to this comment...that said, I think it would be wise to have a bit of "both" gold/silver in small denominations & useful items to trade and barter with (ammo, canned food, TP, lighters, alcohol...)

 

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 10:49 | 1978443 trav7777
trav7777's picture

silverbugz getting absolutely BLOWTORCHED

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 10:56 | 1978478 Falcon15
Falcon15's picture

Channeling Robotard. +1 for you.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 10:57 | 1978488 GiantVampireSqu...
GiantVampireSquid vs OWS UFC 2012's picture

silverbugz getting more fiat ready to swap for physical.  Fixed it.  If it hits $25 I'll gladly take out a loan to buy physical.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 11:01 | 1978504 Martial
Martial's picture

And I hope it gets worse....ready to back my truck up. Bring it!

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 11:07 | 1978552 Tsunami Wave
Tsunami Wave's picture

With a rising dollar, global selloff, traditional dip in all commodities (especially gold and silver) between January - April, 40,000+short order contracts still outstanding.... Nah that doesn't bother me.  I want to go even more in soon.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 11:13 | 1978589 tmosley
tmosley's picture

lol, like your gold is rising spectacularly.

Your doublethink on precious metals and "SHTF" is almost humorous to watch.

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 13:00 | 1979170 trav7777
trav7777's picture

whether or not gold is going up has nothing to do with the fact that silverbugs like you are getting ABSOLUTELY MONKEYHAMMERED.

Anyway, I have a short gold position since a week ago anyway

Wed, 12/14/2011 - 13:13 | 1979224 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Wow, that's fucking painful if I wanted to liquidate. 

Silver Bid: 28.89 Ask: 28.99 Change:  -2.28

 

If I want to buy, that's opportunity. :-)

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