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The Complete And Annotated Guide To The European Bank Run (Or The Final Phase Of Goldman's World Domination Plan)
"Nervous investors around the globe are accelerating their exit from the debt of European governments and banks, increasing the risk of a credit squeeze that could set off a downward spiral. Financial institutions are dumping their vast holdings of European government debt and spurning new bond issues by countries like Spain and Italy. And many have decided not to renew short-term loans to European banks, which are needed to finance day-to-day operations. " So begins an article not in some hyperventilating fringe blog, but a cover article in the venerable New York Times titled "Europe Fears a Credit Squeeze as Investors Sell Bond Holdings." Said otherwise, Europe's continental bank run in which virtually, but not quite, all banks are dumping any peripheral exposure with reckless abandon is now on. Granted, considering the epic collapse in bond prices of Italian, French, Austrian, Hungarian, Spanish and Belgian bonds which all hit record wide yields and spreads in the past week, and furthermore following last week's "Sold To You": European Banks Quietly Dumping €300 Billion In Italian Debt" which predicted precisely this outcome, the news is not much of a surprise. However, learning that everyone (with two exceptions) has given up on Europe's financial system should send a shudder through the back of everyone who still is capable of independent thought - because said otherwise, the world's largest economic block is becoming unglued, and its entire financial system is on the edge of a complete meltdown. And just to make sure that various fringe bloggers who warned this would happen over a year ago no longer lead to the hyperventilation of the venerable NYT, below, with the help of Goldman's Jernej Omahan, we bring to our readers the complete annotated and abbreviated beginner's guide to the pan-European bank run.
But first some more details from the NYT:
The flight from European sovereign debt and banks has spanned the globe. European institutions like the Royal Bank of Scotland and pension funds in the Netherlands have been heavy sellers in recent days. And earlier this month, Kokusai Asset Management in Japan unloaded nearly $1 billion in Italian debt.
At the same time, American institutions are pulling back on loans to even the sturdiest banks in Europe. When a $300 million certificate of deposit held by Vanguard’s $114 billion Prime Money Market Fund from Rabobank in the Netherlands came due on Nov. 9, Vanguard decided to let the loan expire and move the money out of Europe. Rabobank enjoys a AAA-credit rating and is considered one of the strongest banks in the world.
American money market funds, long a key supplier of dollars to European banks through short-term loans, have also become nervous. Fund managers have cut their holdings of notes issued by euro zone banks by $261 billion from around its peak in May, a 54 percent drop, according to JPMorgan Chase research.
Is this setting familiar to anyone? It should be: "Experts say the cycle of anxiety, forced selling and surging borrowing costs is reminiscent of the months before the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, when worries about subprime mortgages in the United States metastasized into a global market crisis."
Ah, but there is one major difference: last time around, the banks were not all in on the wrong side of the world's worst poker hand (as described by Kyle Bass earlier). Now they are. And should Europe's banks begin a domino-like spiral of collapse, there will be nobody to bail out first Europe, then Japan, then China, then the US and finally the world.
But lest someone suggest this is merely the deranged ramblings of yet another blogger, here is Goldman Sachs with a far more cool, calm and collected explanation for why we should all panic (which comes at the sublime moment: just as Goldman takes over all the key political locus points of the European continent: more on that in the conclusion...)
Core’ banks cut GIIPS debt by €42 bn (-31%) in 3Q; a manifestation of PSI side-effects?
In 3Q2011, banks from the ‘core’ cut their net GIIPS sovereign debt holdings by €42 bn (or by one-third), mostly Italian (€26 bn), Spanish (€7 bn) and Greek (markdown of €7 bn). French and Benelux banks cut their exposures most, by €21 bn and €9 bn, respectively. GIIPS portfolios remained unchanged with periphery banks.
Greek PSI sets a risky precedent, in our view, as the prospect of ‘voluntary’ haircuts becoming a template for GIIPS crisis resolution could drive exposure reduction. Core banks now have €88 bn of GIIPS sovereign bonds remaining. We expect this to decline. Problematically, we observe that GIIPS bond reductions are not resulting in ‘core’ bond purchases but in a rise in deposits at the ECB.
- The disposal of GIIPS sovereign debt accelerated during 3Q2011, and we highlight the following.
- Banks cut net GIIPS sovereign exposure by €43 bn. The largest reductions relate to Italian (€26 bn), Spanish (€7 bn) and Greek (€7 bn) net sovereign debt positions.
- Almost all of the reduction (€42 bn) came from banks in the European ‘core’, where the GIIPS bond positions therefore fell by just over one-third (31%). At the same time the banks from the ‘periphery’ kept their exposures unchanged.
- French (€21 bn) and Benelux (€9 bn) banks reduced their exposure most.
- Individually BNP (€12 bn), KBC (€4.4 bn), SG (€4.1 bn), BARC (€3.5 bn) and ING (€3.5 bn) cut the net sovereign exposures most, in absolute terms.
We expect this trend to extend into 4Q and to ultimately lead to a long-term reduction GIIPS bond holdings by core banks.
Greek PSI – and the ‘voluntary’ 50% haircut – has changed the risk perception of GIIPS bonds. We believe it has allowed for an assumption that PSI will be used as a template in helping other GIIPS sovereigns improve their public finances. Such intention is denied by policy makers. Banks, on the other hand, express their view of the likelihood of such an event through the changes in their net positions.
It is important to emphasizes that a bank’s decision to hold sovereign debt is not an expression of an investment preference. Rather, it is a decision related to liquidity management. As such banks seek ‘risk free’ assets that can be used to access liquidity at any time, particularly at the time of crisis. Regulators continue to treat sovereign debt as highest-quality and risk free (0% risk-weight) collateral. With no RWA constraint and full refinancing eligibility, banks are encouraged to hold sovereign debt; its (selective) transition from a ‘risk free’ to a ‘risk’ asset is therefore unexpected and highly damaging.
Earlier we said all but two entities have been dumping PIIGS (or GIIPS as Goldman prefers to call them). Sure enough, one of the unlucky two tasked with buying everything sold in the secondary market is of course the ECB: the same bank that everyone is accusing of not doing more to help.
Funding: Increasingly reliant on the ECB
The use of ECB facilities rose again in October, driven by Spanish (€7 bn) and Italian (€6 bn) banks. For 4Q, we expect a sharp increase in use by Italian banks, driven by: (1) LCH’s increased margin requirements on Italian REPOs, which now make market REPOs comparatively more expensive than those at the ECB; and (2) a steady fading of the ECB funding ‘stigma’. It is possible that the majority of the €300 bn of interbank funding and market REPOs could end up on ECB’s balance sheet. That alone would have the capacity to lift current ECB use from €579 bn to just below €900 bn. This level of use would compare with previous crisis peak levels (2009) of €870-897 bn.
We have long argued that the ECB has capacity to back-stop bank funding requirements – and there is no change to this view. That said, a gradual closing of the last functioning wholesale funding market – short-term REPOs, backed by government bonds – is certainly not an encouraging sign. The re-opening of the long-term funding markets has been pushed further out, in our view.
LCH triggers increased margin requirements on Italian REPOs
On November 9, 2011, LCH.Clearnet (LCH) announced its decision to increase ‘deposit factors’ applied to Italian debt repo transactions (e.g. haircut on collateral) by 3.5% to 5% depending on the duration of the collateral. The move was not a surprise as LCH’s Risk Management Framework states that it “would generally consider a spread of 450bp over the 10-year AAA benchmark to be indicative of additional sovereign risk”, which may cause it to “materially increase the margin required for positions in that issuer”. Previously, ECB interventions kept the spreads below the key trigger level of 450bp.
Italian banks likely to switch to the ECB
Owing to increased margin requirement, market REPOs have become more expensive. In our view, the banks are therefore likely to look for alternative sources of funding, especially with the ECB.
Typically, the cost a bank faces to fund a sovereign bond portfolio through a tri-party repo transaction consists of: (i) the funding rate (‘repo rate’) for the duration of the repo and applied to the market value of the bonds; and (ii) additional funding costs, mostly in the form of the haircut/margin required by the Central Clearing House as collateral. The higher the haircut/margin level and the marginal funding cost, the higher the cost of the borrowing, which becomes ineffective when it exceeds the cost of the ECB repo facility (1.5% repo rate + haircut funding cost).
The Italian banks’ funding currently includes €155 bn of customer repos and €193 bn of interbank funding exposure to non resident MFIs. The large portion of the latter takes the form of secured funding (repos). In addition, the Italian banks currently draw on €111 bn of ECB funding.
It is possible that the majority of the €300 bn of interbank funding and market REPOs could end up on the ECB’s balance sheet. That alone would have the capacity to lift current ECB use from €579 bn to just below €900 bn. This level of use would compare with previous crisis peak levels (2009) of €870-897 bn.
So just why again is it that anyone accuses the ECB of doing nothing? When all is said and done under the current regime, the ECB balance sheet will be just under €2 trillion, and that is without any incremental printing, courtesy of the farce that is "sterilization" with banks which exist only due to the ECB, thereby making said sterilization about the most idiotic thing ever conceived. Yet that is what spin is for...
In the meantime, the European shadow banking system is on the verge of a complete shutdown, with repos of all shapes and sizes about go dark.
And summarizing all of the above visually, here come the charts:
And while we already discussed that one half of Europe's dumb money is the ECB by necessity, to get the answer for who is the other half we go back to our post from last Friday:
Completing the picture is the answer of who the dumb money is:
Italian bonds still have one support bloc. Domestic banks appear to be holding on to their much larger holdings. As of last December, EBA stress tests showed Intesa Sanpaolo held €60bn of Italian debt. UniCredit and Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena held €49bn and €32bn respectively. Recent results indicate that those holdings have changed little.
“We will keep investing the largest part of our liquidity in Italian government bonds,” said Corrado Passera, chief executive officer at Intesa Sanpaolo, in a call with analysts this week. “We believe they provide the right yields vis-à-vis the cost. So no policy change on our side.”
Still, according to the investment banker advising firms on their Italian holdings, the domestic banks’ decisions to hold on could have more to do with their inability to offload such large amounts quickly and without deep losses. Indeed, some Italian bankers seem resigned to the situation.
Capital concerns are also preventing them from selling. “The key issue is on solvency and I think they made a mistake in requiring us to hold more capital,” said the chief executive of a mid-sized Italian bank. “To meet these levels we cannot sell too much of our sovereign debt.”
So instead of selling, Italian banks are doing all they can to dodecatuple down and...buy!?
To summarize: everyone is dumping European paper, except for the ECB and Italian banks, which have no choice and instead have to double down and buy more. In the meantime, the market is going increasingly bidless as liquidity evaporates, confidence has disappeared and virtually everyone now expects a repeat of Lehman brothers. Of course, this means that when the bottom finally out from the market, the implosion of the Italian banking system, and thus economy, will be instantaneous. And when Italy goes, so goes its $2 trillion+ in sovereign debt, and at that point we will see just how effectively hedged and offloaded the rest of the world is, as contagion shifts from Italy and slowly but surely engulfs the entire world.
Incidentally, is it really that surprising that Goldman is now doing its best to precipitate a bank run of Europe's major financial institutions by "suddenly" exposing the truth that was there all along? During the great financial crisis of 2008, the one biggest winner from the collapse of Bear and Lehman was none other than the squid. This time around, Goldman has set its sights on Europe and has already made sure that its tentacles will be in firmly in control at all the right places when the collapse comes, as the Independent shows.
And when banks are falling over like houses of cards in the middle of a tornado cluster, and the financial power vacuum is in desperate need to be filled, who will step in once again but... Goldman Sachs.
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Since you brought up jesus, apparently he has chosen to return in the weirdest of places:
http://pijamasurf.com/2011/11/aparece-rostro-de-jesucristo-en-el-ano-de-...
No weirder than the [supposedly highly intelligent] aliens always landing in the most backward and isolated places "looking for our leader"!
PS. Who on earth would go looking into a dog's ass in the first place? Don't tell me, I know ... any average voter!
it looks like someone is about to get a kick in the teeth by a boot
DOH !!!
{Three-card Monti @ the Italian money/mafia's control panel... frantically reading the NYTimes ... pawing through all the charts...graphs...tables... hoping to find the solution*!}
http://www.greller.eu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/20050121_v_homer-simpson5.jpg
*acct# 21214
Twenty years ago I read Fukuyama's "End of History". Now I am deeply disappointed.
I also thought that Fukuyama talked bollox.
I couldn't even finish it. It was pure crap.
GIIPS DEBT..., In a PIIGS arse;)
giips is good enough.
To gip someone is to commit fraud
only the boys @ goldman sux would find a way to put a lipstick on a pig and call it a "gip" aka swindling.
I've always thought GIIPS was a much better name than PIIGS - after all they are in the process of gipping their bond holders are they not?
GIIPSies will steal anything not nailed down and guarded....
nooo. they are not "phucking their bondholders." the bondholders are in fact..."phucking them." they're SUPPOSE to be phucking they're bondholders however. let's take a closer look at the problem:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5X3Z_GM9vDA&feature=player_detailpage
Look can we just agree that it's a cluster phuck?
absolutely maybe.
Chart-porn Bitchez!
Jump you fuckers!
I believe encouraging or soliciting suicide is a crime sir. Will you please wait a moment while we update your computer with child porn?
I'd like to solicite a suicide please. Can you accomodate my request?
I'm sorry, but this is civil disorder and rioting. Suicide is down the hall just past domestic abuse.
....And it's fun, the talk around the water-cooler....
Domestic abuse has been closed down. Your going to have to keep up with the times knukles or were going to have to ask you to leave the forum...
Duck, you suckers.
That's an awful lot of charts for a Saturday night.
Try it again on Monday.
If bank runs occur in EU megabanks the consequences will be severe, too severe for the Germans to bear. Thus they will cave and let the ECB shower the banks with monetary bliss
Good to see you back GDT...
Thanks hulk. I've always been here been posting under subprime jd but decided to bring the old handle back :)
Not sure why anyone would hold deposits in European banks, are interest rates on deposits in those banks much higher than ours?
no the interest rates are much the same both sides of the pond
the reason our deposits are here is US Regulators won't let us into your banking system with your stringent morality and strict, strict, strict anti-money/drug/despot laundering laws and regulations (unless you're Gidaffi or some other murderous crook with a 9 figure sum to deposit at Goldmans or JMP of course!)
and secondly we don't want in because when Europe goes you're fucked too in about 0.3 of a microsecond (so it makes no difference)
better the devil (bankrupt bank) you know
The only reports I have seen indicate that the gaddafy secret money stash was in swiss accounts.
Maybe you have a link showing secret gafdafy accounts at jpm or goldman?
Europe has been the land that gladly aids and abets corrupt dictators and norco traffickers to launder their money.
You guys specifically went for those types of financial transactions with a 500 euro note.
Hypocrisy thy name is europe.
TCT, what planet are you from or what drugs are you using to make you think that the US does not also "gladly aids and abets corrupt dictators and norco traffickers to launder their money."
Hypocrisy thy name is topcallingtroll.
He's a one-eyed troll.
no depth perception
Not the only hypocrits:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/03/us-bank-mexico-drug-gangs
maybe before you post you should google instead of looking like a retard.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/23/world/africa/23assets.html
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/aug/24/libya-rebel-backers-free-funds
37B in US
Opertion Green Ice and Operation Dinero come to mind. I don't keep up with it any more.
But that doesn't" fix the problem". and the short term bliss will be replaced with even more severe consequences for the Germans to bear.
The GODDAMN COCKSUCKING MOTHERFUCKERS who have engaged in massive SECURITES fraud with COMPLETE IMMUNITY FROM PROSECUTION, ARE DRAGGING down the world.
FUCK YOU BANKSTERS!
I have spoken, BITCHEZZZZZZZZZ!
Remember it is not all bankers that are the puppetmasters. There are many small banks and small community bankers who are not part of the problem.
I suggest we call our targets "financial oligarchs," the top 0.001 percent.
Those are the ones guilty of usurping the constitution and forcing us to socialize losses so they could all get their bonuses in 08, remember?
Treason is a hanging offense and after a few minutes of due process in front of a citizen's committee the sentence should be carried out.
So many financial oligarchs
So little time
What type of gun should I buy if I want to (a) defend myself and (b) use it to hunt if I have to. I don't want to own a riffle or shotgun. Any smaller options?
MP40
The Barrett 82A1 is a great starter rifle, good for putting those Bronto Burgers on the plate...
http://www.barrett.net/firearms/model82a1
I'll take two in camouflage and one in blaze orange.
Good squirrel gun.
..and comes in handy if you need a hole in concrete and don't have a core drill available.
For precision drilling at distance make sure you get it with a Mark 4 LR/T.
http://www.opticsplanet.net/leupold-mark-4-10x40mm-lrt-m1-rifle-scope-with-mil-dot-reticle.html
A hungarian AK with collapsable stock holds 30 rounds and costs about $550 bucks. Buy one while you can.
Hard to beat a pump .410 for birds and small game. It's also pretty good for close in home defense.
For small shit, I use a break barrel pellet rifle. The pellets are dirt cheap and the target practice invaluable...
I like my old tried and tru thuty- thuty. Brought home more game in 30 years than most men have ever seen.
and you can always get ammo.
Dynomite's pretty nifty for fishin'. :)
No rifle or shotgun, but you want to (a) defend yourself and (b) hunt?
Might as well get a crossbow, be better and quiter than a handgun for hunting, and hope there's only one intruder.
Just say fuck it, get one of everything, and ammo to go with it. And a 3/4 or 1 ton truck with a camper to carry it all.
Sorry to say this but if you want a gun to defend yourself AND to hunt with your only choice is a shotgun.
Yeah, so go get an old rusty, sturdy 10 gauge side-by-side, saw off the barrel and butt stock, duct tape the remainder of the foregrip to the barrel, get a couple boxes 00 buck and bingo, quandry unquandried,
Just don't let anyboy see it.
Live in happy paranioa.
Nasty things to shot Knukles... but great for killing snakes off the tractor while bush hogging. ;)
Yeah because if you google lightweight and portable a picture of a 27 lb box of 250 shotgun shells is at the top of the list. Think .22 mag
And how many critters have you killed with your .22 mag?
My old man raised us on whitetail poached on the sly with .22LR, and I've taken down many a rabbit and squirrel with the same.
It's not a bad choice- a good one is plenty accurate and powerful, and the ammo is cheap.
winchester 30-30 will do the trick. Not as good as a remington 870 for close in but go for hunting
Those are the two I keep in my bedroom. Others are located elsewhere, but they're the top two in my book as well.
thelma and louise!
As posted earlier, Mossberg has a 12 gauge called the Maverick 88 with a legal 18+inch barrel that can be fitted with a pistol grip in about ten minutes. Add some 00 shot and bingo home protection and #6 for birds and small game. Costs about $200 new Milestones
Come on guys, devo's gonna think we're fuckin' with him, coming to ZH for a firearms question. Sorta like asking the editors of Automobile Week for an expalination about segregated accounts and the CME.
I still say MP40
We are fucking with him. OK Devo, the serious answer to your question is this:
http://www.rockriverarms.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=category.display&category_id=255
IMHO, for the Zombie Apackoflips, nothing less than a .308 will suffice.
Equiping that LAR 8 with Holosites, NV and about 2 thousands hours of training will make you good to go...
RRA, Excellent choice.
.5 MOA and American made. Its my favorite weapon. Second favorite is my Ithaca Deerslayer II.
Eg, if you have six people in your household, go for three M1A's, two AR's, and one shotgun. Oh, and eight or nine Glocks, all with lots of ammo. My choice is the M1A, but your choice has to be dictated by your situation. Analyze your various fields of fire and your comfort levels. And practice. Lots. Personally, I don't want them close enough for me to ever have to use a shotgun. I have one, of course, buts it is last ditch stuff.
last ditch like last train to gun hill...you sound like Hemingway before big bang. Boot hill next stop.
No shotguns or rifles? Really limiting yourself. My first was an AR-15, a really nice firearm. But for "(a) defend myself and (b) use it to hunt if I have to" shotgun all the way.
Damn, that's what I figured. Thanks.
Remington 870 with an 00 load will do the trick every time.
Unfortunately your criteria are at odds and make the question almost an oxymoron- removing rifles and shotguns takes away just about all hunting capacity unless you are very experienced. Pistols are very short range weapons for the most part, few animals will let you get within the 25 yard or so max useful range for a pistol unless you are very good at camouflage or good enough to mave through woods near silently. Pistols are useful for point blank defense and thats about it- you can hunt with some of the largest ones but again that requires a pretty high level of skill.
Also, no matter what you get, go to the range and practice. You'll learn what you, and the gun can and cannot do.
Zombie rooftop slingshot:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNNO8q9Ixpk
By Joerg Sprave, the man who can make a slingshot out of almost anything.
Keltec sub 2000 in 9 or 40, carbine, pistol caliber with glock mags holds up to 30 shots enough for cqb but enough punch for 100 yd shots.
You can't hunt with a glock or for that matter any other type of hand gun, so forget that. I shot two pigs (wild russian boars tearing up my property) the other day with a glock (I had it on me and they crossed my path)and they just squealed and kept on running, pissed me off, I didn't have a head shot. Get a 30-30 rifle with lots of ammo and a nice little "ladies glock" to keep the "bad boys" away. I kinda of like the Taurus Judge, it will fire 410 rifle shell and shotgun shells..... nasty little sucker, the grip on it is really nice and it is pretty well balanced.
+ 410 for the Taurus.
http://www.taurususa.com/2011catalog/?catalog_page=42
Anybody else looking at the Mosin Nagant? You could arm the whole neighborhood for less than $2000.
you are annie oakley's great great great...I'd hate to be naked in your hair triggers...I hope you can tell a pair of human ones from the wild boar variety.
MA Duece
A can of WD-40 and a wind proof lighter. Leave the red squirt rod installed.
Officer you wouldn't belive it, spontaneous combustion I tell ya!
I don't think the guys read your question fully before answering ,or have low comprehension skills.
The part about NOT wanting a rifle must have threw them off.
That's why I said MP40, for shits and grins sake!
It's not a rifle, it's more than a pistol!
It's just right for dad at Christmas!
Just think of how he'll feel ripping that first 30 round mag off in the back yard!
Make him feel just like the man he was 20 years ago in the SBS.
I can't image having a thirty round mag.... get in all kinds of trouble with that. I accidently shot my washing machine with my 30-30 the other day... it was kinda difficult to explain to my husband how that happened.. it was an old used maytag stored in the barn and I was shooting at some pigs rooting in front of the barn... it was a very long shot, so I aimed a little high, well it went through the barn wall, through the side wall of the maytag, through one side of the drum and out the other side of the drum and budged out the side wall of the machine.
I never did like that washing machine.....
That's bullish!
Long Maytag!
Nahh, it was the part about wanting to hunt with a hand gun that I had trouble comprehending.... by the way, we are not all "guys" on this site. Some of us are gray haired grannies..... that like to shot pigs and read ZH.
LOL, there are no smaller options...
Rosetti .357. Excellente.
hi-point 9mm $150.00
Scoped Model 700 in .270 Winchester for hunting and zombie patrol. 12 gauge semi-auto for home defense/feral poodles.
Devo,
Owning firearms is a personal choice. What works for one person does not work for another. There are some standards. Lets start at the bottom and work our way up. A .22 (ammo is cheap) is great for learning to shoot, also used for hunting small game, rabbits, squirrels and such. The .22 should break down for easy transport. Two come to mind, the Henry and Marlin Papoose. Next up the food chain in rifles for game gathering is the 30-30 and 30-06. Both good calibers for deer sized game. I have a 30-06 in a bench rest rifle. Heavy as shit, but very accurate and if I had to put dinner on the table it would work, albeit heavy to hump around the woods. Oh, and if I don't mention a weapon built on an AR platform I might get cross eyed looks. These can be had in many calibers and also be a dull purpose weapon, food and security.
As to handguns, again the choices are numerous. Like the .22 rifle the .22 handgun it is inexpensive to shoot. Perhaps a marriage of both is fitting. The .38/.357 platform is also dual purpose. I have a friend who hunts deer with an 8" Colt Python in .357. .38 caliber ammo can be fired out of the .357. Or stay with the .38 caliber and get your self a good wheel gun, S&W, Colt, or Ruger (again personal choice) along with a Marlin 1894 Cowboy rifle... again dual purpose. The 158 grain semi wadcutter hollow point is a good self defense round. Next, revolver or semi auto, again personal choice. Both take practice. The revolver less.
Semi auto handguns are all the rage. Like all firearms, no good unless you know how to shoot one. Practice is essential, but the correct training even more so. Take a tactical handgun course or if you have a friend who is a cop have him teach you. Learn the difference between cover an concealment, tactical shooting, target acquisition, tactical reloading, clearing a stoppage... tap rack check and go... rip work etc., vertical tracking on a target. I could go on, but you get it.
Get hunting skills. Same as above, seek out someone and learn. Then practice.
You for got to mention a knife? This could go on forever.
Hope this helps.
My old man has one of these, and he raves about it.
http://www.ruger.com/products/22Charger/index.html
"Too big to fail" has always been an illusion, an excuse to profiteer.
Critically, it's a recognition of "Too Big to Save".
Question is, what makes it through triage?
There are ways to cure the contagion...
http://tinyurl.com/6ogrscf
That is all...
gs_
So THE establishment mouthpiece is finally admitting Europe's imploding? Convenient change of heart? Warning for or from the TPTB? Things are about to get very interesting indeed. Seat belts fastened ladies and gentlemen, please.
GS admitting the truth? Not likely. More like another appeal for Fed & ECB to start printing.
And when banks are falling over like houses of cards in the middle of a tornado cluster, and the financial power vacuum is in desperate need to be filled, who will step in once again but... Goldman Sachs.
There will be competition. May be some political assasinations at that time as the bankers fight it out for control of the world. lol
The thing that worries me most is that far too many people "see" this coming for it to be a true Lehman event.
Bear Stearns caught 99% of smart knowledgable active investors by surprise. Their was no discussion of a problem until Friday and it was over by Monday. Lehman itself had a bit more lead up, but the magnitude was still stunning. AIG, Fannie, Freddie, Merrill etc...
This time it seems 90% of people know their is a problem. Most are being sanguine about it being resolved, but those that arent (say 1/3rd of investors) KNOW it will crush everything in Europe, thus the 40% decline in euro markets and the huge short interest in euro.
Gotta ask, what will catch everyone but a handful of people by surprise? Will it be that Europe prints and markets go up 100% in nominal (-50% real) terms? Will it be a Japan type muddle through that keeps it going longer then anyone can stay liquid? Will it be that this simply stays I'n Europe and US BRICS etc keep growing?
Don't get me wrong, I'm short out the wazoo. Just thinking a black swan has to be unexpected. I did lighten up last week expecting a Holliday hopium rally on black Friday rumors.
Went from 80% FAZ and SMDD and 20% cash to 50/50. Will BTFD if we rally this week! If not I'll still add to my 45% gain since Sept 10th!! Hoping to finish the year with enough profit after tax to buy a high rise condo in Miami.
Don't get me wrong
These events come whether or not anyone sees them. This one coming is unstoppable...
What's coming is just the continuation and culmination of what nobody saw coming in 2008.
Great point WonderDawg, That is exactally what it is. 2008 finally breaking through the 4 years of extend and pretend rescues. Now it is game on as four years of rescue attempt fail.
2008 was the appetizer.
And how would you like your entre done?
Burnt to a crisp, por favor...
Just Carbon please.
I agree. This is so big and so bad and so transparent even a Harvard MBA can see it coming. It is like the Russian 5th Gurads Tank Army in 1943, the Germans saw it coming, but it still rolled over them and did some serious damage.
This may not catch anyone by surprise, but when was a bank run ever a surprise? The definition of a bank run is a universal loss of confidence. Such is the case with European sovereign debt. It IS universal and that is what is going to cause the collapse.
Good economics, scam history. German tank crews out-killed Russians 3::1 at Kursk. But Russian tank production by mid-'43 exceeding Germany's by 10::1. This thanx to US lend-lease shipping Russia tens of thousands of trucks, jeeps, etc. that freed up all Red vehicle production lines for...nothing but tanks.
explanations and analysis,...Cause and effect.
As Stalin said; the vatican how many divisions? At Potsdam.
And Truman answered : Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Now that is machiavellian dialogue at its utmost. Or maybe not, it ended the hot war and started the cold one.
We may be coming to a new watershed now. What you call scam history, sounds like if you were hundred percent sure of cause and effect about your case of 'good economics'. I'd be less categoric and deterministic. The russian PEOPLE did prove one thing we all forget : they knew how to die for country.
Just like the Viet Cong : 3 million in a war of attrition that they won, no scam history there. Even if it was scam ideology.
But that's another story.
I agree about kills and all that. Read my quote again, I think it holds up in any objective history. The battle of the 5 Guards Tank Army was a success in context of the battle of Kursk.
At this time do not short anything, The best way to loose everything is to be short in a systemic collapse. Your shorts will be not honored. You can not make money through destruction, or if you do your payment does not have value.
The article does not mention which solar system he was in when he wrote it but it is about the most opposite opinion to the gist of this article that I could find on CNBC. That is the only reason I have posted it here.
PIGGY HILL. Germany is the newest Pig, Ireland has been removed.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ekbC9Xgd9jY
this is good news. the game of chicken is almost over. every one of these players know they are all gonna get a monty python up their exit ramp if things get worse so i expect we will see a full page "print, baby, print" headline this week.
No need for credit if you live within your means.
What happens when banks starting dumping French debt? Kaboooooooooom.
un-bunga
http://ddickerson.igc.org/The_Protocols_of_the_Learned_Elders_of_Zion.pdf
they told you what they were going to do and how they were going to do it
Controlled collapse. That's what TPTB have been trying to achieve now and since 08. Just trying to avoid a sudden disaster. But they know the bubble needs to deflate. Unfortunately it's like a big game of musical chairs. Lots of people and now even entire countries will be left out of the next round.
Ding ding ding ding..... We have a winner folks. You're exactly right. Everybody knows that the system is toast, but if they can control it they will be able to retain power through lies and obfuscation. If it out right collapses then they have a revolution on their hands. My only disagreement is the year. I think the collapse started in 2000.
That makes three of us. I think they know they can't reflate (all viable economies have already gone beyone debt saturation), so the best they can do is try to control the rate of deflation. Can they do it? I have my doubts. Unintended consequences, which by their nature cannot be foreseen, are lurking behind every move they make.
One of the few alarm posts I've seen here in a while that didn't have a bunch of "Bullish! should be good for 400 on the dow!" type comments.
Something diferent is afoot.
Ok, european banks dumping their holdings but the question is who picks up that shit? Angels?
They're taking loses and deleveraging but somebody has to have some faith in those bonds to purchase them at discount, ECB, FED, Chinese?
Any idea?
88888 account
RoboTrader
Leo. All Europe has to do is disquise all that junk as Chinese solars...
Although the ECB is governed by European law directly and thus not by corporate law applying to private law companies, its set up resembles that of a corporation in the sense that the ECB has shareholders and stock capital. Thanks.
Regards,
Chandler Real Estate
Madhedgefundtrader..., and Goldman clients.
Actually, it's a good question. Bid/Ask must be a little sloppy.
And yet, despite the popular notion that Goldman is going to take over the world, one of our best Short positions has been against Goldman Sachs, having started the position back in 2008 with the stock in the $175 dollar range, with a price now of $92+/-, I'm not sure they are going to be left standing either. None of the TBTF institutions are going to make it, they are all worth $0. And if you don't believe me, just keep an eye on the share prices going forward. The most profitable trade ever for the fund over the last almost four years and I have no intention of ever closing these shorts out.
Be careful. If TPTB / TBTF can drag this sovereign debt ponzi scheme out long enough via currency printing, GS share price will return to 175 ...in nominal dollars ...worth about 1/4 their Sept '08 value.
Futures & options ignore the declining value of the dollar. But investors must stay aware of it if they take long term positions.
The US Federal Reserve is the big winner. I'm trying to get the ticker symbol for you right now...
Can't invest in the FED directly unless you're a member bank- already looked into that.
FINE. I'll just "go long criminals" and see how it works out then.
WHO HERE'S UP TO NO GOOD AND NEEDS MONEY?
it's all transitory, until it ain't. scoopin' au & ag as fast as possible.
If the Germans cave and bailout the rest of Europe, I hope they're smart enough to stipulate the repatriation of their gold from NY (and maybe a little of the PIIGS too).
The Best Sheild JP Morgan EVER! could have hoped for!
Best comment ever!
/dup
The world has "Cancer Of The Wallet".
http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/11/02/the-daily-climb-2/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pIyPrjfVBQ4
this time it is different
@onlooker
You forgot:
'the check is in the mail'
The sovereigns can sell all the debt they need to sell within their own borders, to their own citizens.
i think we can all agree that Europe never considered the problem a "banking one." In other words "the banks can always roll over their debts" is such an amazing conceit even an American has to laugh at that. We've spent trillions bailing out ours and Europe's response? "We don't have THAT problem." Really? Having "solved this non-problem" by throwing trillions at governments have they solved the ACTUAL problem of the banks? Nooooooooooo, they haven't. So now with the country insolvent recapitalizing the banks is now impossible. CONGRATULATIONS! YOU'VE DONE EXACTLY THE WRONG THING! Methinks "this is where the fun begins" cuz the only solution i can see right now with the massive funding crises is a Hamilton-esqe "Bank of Europe" to be created only ONCE the system is completely "raked over the coals" and unfortunately not before it. in other words "you have to let the complete insolvency run its course first" since "they never saw a bank they didn't want to fail" both "over there... and over here too." and now Europe gets its wish. Yes, yes? I mean "tell me where i'm wrong here?" cuz "this ain't no triumph for anyone once you think about it."
"And should Europe's banks begin a domino-like spiral of collapse, there will be nobody to bail out first Europe, then Japan, then China, then the US and finally the world."
Cambodia, bitchez!
(I don't mean that's who'll bail everybody out--I mean, that's where I'll be. :-)
"weeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XQzQYFYfy8&feature=player_detailpage
More like Zimbabwe on a worldwide scale.
Fed, ECB, BOJ, et al must resort to running the presses and debasing their currencies (to nothing) to keep this sovereign debt ponzi scheme going, avoid total collapse of the sovereign bond market, and avoid total collapse of all the huge banks. There is no other way.
"American institutions are pulling back on loans to even the sturdiest banks in Europe."
'Copter Ben To The Rescue
That's okay... Bald Bennie can print out a trillion or two $$$ for currency swap (gift) liquidity for his Euro-Trash pals...
Can't ya Ben...
I see the fucking Goldman eCONomist is still talking baby talk(haircuts).
These fuckers are delusional.
Ritch,but fucking delusional.
Looks like that banker from Ireland,Peter Sutherland ,forgot to take the pig off the bacon last time he had bacon and eggs.
I'd like to remind people that when PIIGS borrow from the ECB using PIIGS debt as collateral (in violation of Basel II), there is no haircut applied.
Somehow this seems to have been missed by the MSM. The ECB is subsidizing the PIIGS / conducting a stealth bailout / breaking free market forces in an attempt to maintain zee price stabilitee. See: http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/6599
There's a perpetual motion machine in action here. If Italy can't get a good price on debt, it can borrow cheap from the ECB to buy its own bonds (via an obfuscating proxy) and use those bonds to collateralize the loan. It then only has to service the (lower) interest rate on the ECB loan, as the higher interest paid on bonds is meaningless when paying to itself. Hell, in this messed up world it probably records the spread on the two rates as an asset even though it's paying itself.
This is a direct violation of the Basel Capital Accord which requires that the performance of pledged collateral cannot correlate with the solvency of the borrower. In other words, Italy is borrowing to stay functional, but if Italy becomes dysfunctional, the collateral it pledged to the ECB (its own bonds) will have lost value. The ECB cannot recover losses should Italy default.
Add to this the point I made the other day that member central banks throughout the eurozone can and do print euros at will (they just have to inform the ECB that they are doing it), and I have one question: how the hell is the euro not just as worthy of toilet paper status as the USD?
There is no free market. This is now a free for all grab amongst Oligarchs. The US oligarchs, of which GS is top dog, have decided that they don't want to go down alone after 2008 financial armageddon and their print to infinity solution. Socialised Debt swamped, thanks to FED surrogate printing, they, the US oligarchs, have now passed on the disease since 2009 via their banking multinational surrogates, incestuous controllers of money line world wide, to Europe; then to Japan/China etc. THe whole world real economy has to collapse, so that USD exorbitant privilege as reserve currency backed by US MIC overkill can dictate the new terms of the new world order by the GS shills, SCIONS OF OLIGARCHICAL CONTROL.
As otherwise the US eagle loses its hold on world and PAX americana becomes thing of the past. UNACCEPTABLE ALL AROUND NEW ROME. OUR PEOPLE MAY BURN BUT NOT US! SO,...
This current episode is to break down Euro-German resistance. Then it will be China etc; We will all be printing via central banks to infinity and all people world wide will be debt slaves for the coming century to the corporates. Can't be more brutal and simple than that. So all the BS of EUro protection and statist intervention has to be appreciated in the context of global Oligarchy take over of world resources, both RM and human labour, through the financial monopoly of the WS money line; which belongs exclusively to GS and its bought political class on Capitol Hill.
Am I making myself clear?
The elements of the story board have become rather clear as we near the end of this prequel. Maybe it's time to switch to the next, even more important question: Will it work?
And then, what does the NWO look like. I have a slight optimism that it will not work as planned, even though it was planned and developed for decades. There are several key factors which, by my observations, have been completely overlooked by TPTB, and which will result in failure of said plans in the medium term. Short term may well be chaotic.
Maybe a few brave souls like the Tylers, Reggie, or others will venture some thoughts in the coming weeks. What's on the other side of the event horizon?
I think what you’re saying is as plausible as any other scenario to make sense of this mess, but I often wonder just what is really gained by “owning the world” in this way.
They’re just people, nobody lives forever. New people will have to come in and take their place. Reminds me of that line in Wall Street “How many yachts can you water ski behind?”
Like the emperor in Star Wars, he just had to unite the galaxy under the Galactic Empire .. Ok, then what? I suppose he could look out the window of his star cruiser and laugh manically, but what does he really do with this ownership of the galaxy?
If all this goes to plan what do these people really do at that point, sit around and look at maps of conquered nations and laugh manically? So they own all money and all production and control all governments. But none of it will add a minute to their lives, or turn one hair from grey to black.