The Complete And Annotated "Hollande Victory" Matrix

Tyler Durden's picture

Back in early February, long before anyone was too worried that French socialist candidate Hollande may win the French presidential election (after all the market was soaring on the fumes of a still ramping LTRO 1+2 effect, so why worry), UBS George Magnus penned a must read analysis of the macro implications what a Sarkozy loss would mean for Europe in "As Falls Sarkozy, So Falls Europe: The Full Story Behind The Upcoming French Election" which with 4 days to go until the first round of the French presidential election, is certainly worth a refresh (especially for Frau Merkel who will be roundly humiliated after backing the losing horse). And yes, it is only 4 days as UBS is kind enough to remind us. UBS also reminds us that, as strategist Stephane Deo believes Hollande has a 75% chance of winning, the french equity market is at substantial risk, as a Hollande victory is not priced in, even as noted earlier, it is starting to seep into the credit market where French CDS jumped over 200 bps for the first time in 4 months. To wit: "The bond market may force the government’s hand if they don’t start walking the walk on debt  reduction. Plus, while we don’t think that France is as troubled as Spain, it’s not priced for election disruption." But that is the big picture. Below we present a summary matrix which breaks down the various Hollande proposals that may propel him to become the next French president as well as their implications on various micro items.

First, the timeline:

And full Hollande victory matrix:

Yet to think: if it wasn't for a certain hotel maid, DSK would be days away from being French president...

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Irelevant's picture

Known unknowns bitchez!

Popo's picture

There was a must read post regarding Hollande / Sarkozy / Merkel on The Slog yesterday:  The jist of it was that Merkel is setting up a financial 'poison pill' to tank the French economy should it come down to Hollande and Sarkozy.  The intended message being "Look, even the potential for Hollande winning is tanking markets".

Seems like a very plausible scenario.   Look for French markets to shit the bed (according to plan) if this is true.

falak pema's picture

given the world nearly shitted out its entrails on puky Greece, what do you think the Central banks will do if France goes belly up?

Its lights out on the GLOBAL titanic. We won't be saying I'm ok in compartment 1122. Nope, same boat same fate. 

Wake upee call.

Stuck on Zero's picture

If Hollande wins there's going to be a popular "French Spring" popping about very soon.

BlandJoe24's picture

Hollande's proposals seem to support smaller businesses and benifit "the 99%".  Thumbs up to that!

BlandJoe24's picture

agreeum, butum lika thosos ideaums sur la tabla

smb12321's picture

Hollande's rhetoric amounts to an old-fashioned attack on wealth, investment and modern industrialism.  France has always had a soft streak for mom and pop businesses but their creation has virutally disappeared due to the insecurity.  Folks only invest or strike out when they are confident of a supportive atmosphere. Nobody with an atom of sense thinks this will occur on the Left.  Instead, look for a massive run on capital.

zhandax's picture

Mom and pop will invest when they see the best chance they think they will get in the foreseeable future.  If the MSM wants to call the guy a socialist, we all know why.  Taxing the big corporations more and the smaller businesses less sounds like what needs to be done.  Now whether it happens that way is another matter, and why I wouldn't be gambling on an avowed socialist were I in France...

smb12321's picture

If the Left wins capital will begin fleeing as has happened in Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal.  To fight the extreme left, the Socialist have had to radically up the ante,  Who in their right mind would invest in a France run by the Left given their "promises"?

Nothing To See Here's picture

Do you imply that France is not run by the Left right now?

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

If France breaks (a SHTF there), we have 48 hours, tops, before that tsunami washes up on US shores.

Dick Darlington's picture

"Just when i thought i was out they pulled me back in".

- Anonymous US money market fund manager with investments in french banks.

vmromk's picture

I still say Bernanke should go and FUCK HIMSELF.

slaughterer's picture

The divine left in France always undermines its own power at crucial moments, or just is "unlucky."  Indeed, Hollande's upcoming failure will be a near-term black swan. 

TruthInSunshine's picture

I have reduced my OT posts dramatically, but can't resist the urge to go - only slightly, for what it's worth - off topic here, so forgive me.


The last thing I want to do is to feed anything remotely resembling a 'conspiracy theory,' but has anyone arrived at credible hypotheses as to how DSK would have governed as a French President, and more specifically, how his views and policies would have shaped French actions (or inactions, as the case may have been) regarding all things €, too-big-to-fail in the financial sector, and the EU itself?

The4thStooge's picture

There's a good chance he wouldn't have been on board with going after Syria and Iran. He was meeting with Gaddafi shortly before he got the honey-pot and the Colonel got the NATO liberation treatment.

Ratscam's picture

i dont think there is a conspiracy although the details are seriously strange. However, this sex maniac is so full of himself and mentally deranged that all these hookers that came forward in the last couple of weeks, telling that they never had a client that was so abusive, would have been enough to get him out of the presidential picture.

TruthInSunshine's picture

As a proud libertarian, I am willing to let other adults decide on what activities, perversions and sins they wish to pursue (while also risking their health and well-being - and depending on one's religious beliefs - maybe even an afterlife of eternal roasting), to the degree that their actions and behavior does not adversely impact me. If more societies arranged their 'public policy' and 'regulations' and 'laws' around this basic concept, and the people electing legislators restrained them by it, I dare say that 90% of taxes paid could be refunded, Big Brother would self-implode for lack of being able to justify its own intrusive nanny-ventionist existence, and we'd have a safer, cleaner, more creative, more productive and far better world.

smiler03's picture

I think you've failed to understand that DSK has been accused of sexual offences, not infidelity or anything like that.

Accused of rape and now claiming that he is protected by diplomatic immunity

Accused of "pimping" which is illegal in France.

The French have a proud history of completely ignoring their politicians private lives, this is not the same.

TruthInSunshine's picture

First, criminal charges based on accusations of the alleged victim against DSK were dropped by the DA. I'm unaware of the actual truth of the events surrounding that incident. I have no knowledge of whether the act of rape was committed or not, but the prosecutor apparently came to the conclusion that it couldn't be proven by the legal burden required per criminal law standards.

More importantly, if you read my post above in a complete manner, you'd surmise that rape is not something that libertarianism would tolerate, as it constitutes action/behavior that adversely impacts others, referred to in economic terms as negative externalities.

Dick Darlington's picture

Last time FrAAnce had a balanced budget? Go back to 1974. Yes, really.


Some interesting tweets from financial reporter Fabrizio Goria last night:


"With a Hollande victory, France will be the next victim of markets sell-off", a SocGen senior Fixed Income trader told me // cc

"Sarkozy? A man controlled by Germany, I'm not worried by a Sarko 2nd mandate", a SocGen senior Fixed Income trader told me // cc

falak pema's picture

well just look at US budget, it'll put things in perspective.

vmromk's picture

Vive, le shithole France !

Portugal's picture

Everybody is a bit misinformed about the Hollande effect in Europe. In case of doubt, ask yourself why this very month the Rothschild family has decided to concentrate all its holdings in France and discontinue its UK office… ???




Check for the article on this on Reuters 5 April.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Don't KNOW, but the Rothschilds are reportedly Socialists.

machineh's picture

And Hollande reportedly is a stereotypical 'red diaper baby' Jewish leftist.

So presumably they'll get along just fine, non?

But with the German neighbors, it could be a little dicier ...

Don Diego's picture

Is Hollande a member of the tribe? my "jooradar" gives me a very strong signal but I have not been able to confirm it yet.

JustObserving's picture

Sarkozy has been a warmonger and lead the attack on Libya.  

"Nicolas Sarkozy has transformed France from one-time vociferous pacifist to one of the West's eagerest warmongers"

Goodbye Sarko, you overstayed your welcome by a few years.

"Move over, Lawrence of Arabia. The Great Gallic Liberator of Libya (and any other gullible Arab in sight), neo-Napoleonic French President Nicolas Sarkozy, along with his sidekick British Prime Minister David of Arabia Cameron, gallantly strode into a cordoned off military airport in Tripoli to sing La Vie en Rose by the Mediterranean, thus celebrating the success of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's long bombing of Libya into "democracy"."

Ratscam's picture

A short, little motherfucking NAPOLEON! Guillotine!

silverscouseparis's picture

the worrying thing is a  move further RIGHT..this is a country where the national front gets 20% of the vote


smb12321's picture

LOL, well there's not much room for a move to the Left.  With everything from health care to energy to banks under state control and where folks consider Socialism a relgion, a move rightward seems nonexistent. It's like worrying about a Green takeover of Switzerland or democratic takeover of Saudi Arabia. It just won't happen.  Societies begin to think lockstep as witnessed by the red/blue divide.  Look at CA - bankrupt, losing population, near the bottom on education, business, livability and taxes and folks keep voting (overwhelmingly) for the same crew time after time. 

Ar-Pharazôn's picture

mate................. i live in Switzerland, and we ALREADY are one of the greenest country in the world. out of nuclear in 15 years...............

misterc's picture

Back in the day when Mitterand was about to win it was said that Soviet tanks would arrive in Paris a couple of days later. Didn't happen.

I wouldn't bet too heavily on this "Hollande vitory = market selloff"-scheme.

Portugal's picture

Francois Hollande is very wellcomed in the Euroland. Its one of Euro's best supporteres, albeight what the Anglo Saxon Mainstream Media says ( FT, WSJ, CNBC, etc )

drysafe's picture

Most proposals actually seem quite reasonable. Don't forget that what makes a system/state less efficient in booming times may actually be its only chance for survival in times of crisis. In this case, I think an increased role of the state may be beneficial to the French economy. (For more on the above paradox, read Dmitry Orlov's "Reinventing Collapse")

smb12321's picture

Right, because the French state should expland because it is dripping with excess cash.  LOL.  Jeez, do you laugh or cry when you folks pray for an increased role of the State when it has already morgaged their future and can't fix the present.  

Since centrally-run economies make decisions based on political and not market forces you get the inevitable - inefficiency, higher unemployement, fewer enterpreneurs (a dying breed in France) and eventually an inability to trick others into buying your debt.  The US has always been blessed with a private sector that until recently managed to ignore the many roadblocks set up by bureaucratic idiots in DC.

Hedgetard55's picture



Public education, public housing...


With govt in control you get the worst quality good or service at the highest possible cost.

WhyDoesItHurtWhen iPee's picture



"there is no Hell........ there is no HELL,

there is only............FRANCE!"


falak pema's picture

wake up you are in the good ole USA of O'bammy and company...

Negro Primero's picture
...and Nigel Farage Is Back: "Euro Break-Up Just a Question of How"

Mark Carney's picture

I'm just waiting for the headline of "Nigel Farage found drowned in his bathtub....with a curling iron thrown in.....with a bullet in his head....police believe suicide the cause"

Ar-Pharazôn's picture

he already had a plane accident and he survived..... stange eh?

carbonmutant's picture

Does Hollande support referendums...?

tony bonn's picture

although i am not a socialist, nor do i play one on television, it would not hurt my feelings at all to see hollande win if he shoves it up the ass of the banksters and the 1% nwo assholes...

Nothing To See Here's picture

One thing is true of all socialists, they all believe in central planning. I'm not betting that Hollande is going to screw up the EU. He's likely gonna rank and file.

Scalaris's picture


L'appétit vorace sexuelle de DSK, le pot-de-miel et la conspiration du l'élection Présidentielle Française.

You know it happened people.