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The Complete And Annotated "Hollande Victory" Matrix

Tyler Durden's picture


Back in early February, long before anyone was too worried that French socialist candidate Hollande may win the French presidential election (after all the market was soaring on the fumes of a still ramping LTRO 1+2 effect, so why worry), UBS George Magnus penned a must read analysis of the macro implications what a Sarkozy loss would mean for Europe in "As Falls Sarkozy, So Falls Europe: The Full Story Behind The Upcoming French Election" which with 4 days to go until the first round of the French presidential election, is certainly worth a refresh (especially for Frau Merkel who will be roundly humiliated after backing the losing horse). And yes, it is only 4 days as UBS is kind enough to remind us. UBS also reminds us that, as strategist Stephane Deo believes Hollande has a 75% chance of winning, the french equity market is at substantial risk, as a Hollande victory is not priced in, even as noted earlier, it is starting to seep into the credit market where French CDS jumped over 200 bps for the first time in 4 months. To wit: "The bond market may force the government’s hand if they don’t start walking the walk on debt  reduction. Plus, while we don’t think that France is as troubled as Spain, it’s not priced for election disruption." But that is the big picture. Below we present a summary matrix which breaks down the various Hollande proposals that may propel him to become the next French president as well as their implications on various micro items.

First, the timeline:

And full Hollande victory matrix:

Yet to think: if it wasn't for a certain hotel maid, DSK would be days away from being French president...


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Wed, 04/18/2012 - 12:55 | 2355226 Irelevant
Irelevant's picture

Known unknowns bitchez!

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 14:45 | 2355609 Popo
Popo's picture

There was a must read post regarding Hollande / Sarkozy / Merkel on The Slog yesterday:  The jist of it was that Merkel is setting up a financial 'poison pill' to tank the French economy should it come down to Hollande and Sarkozy.  The intended message being "Look, even the potential for Hollande winning is tanking markets".

Seems like a very plausible scenario.   Look for French markets to shit the bed (according to plan) if this is true.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 16:15 | 2355923 falak pema
falak pema's picture

given the world nearly shitted out its entrails on puky Greece, what do you think the Central banks will do if France goes belly up?

Its lights out on the GLOBAL titanic. We won't be saying I'm ok in compartment 1122. Nope, same boat same fate. 

Wake upee call.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 14:47 | 2355622 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

If Hollande wins there's going to be a popular "French Spring" popping about very soon.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 12:57 | 2355229 BlandJoe24
BlandJoe24's picture

Hollande's proposals seem to support smaller businesses and benifit "the 99%".  Thumbs up to that!

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 13:00 | 2355243 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

acta non verba

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 13:11 | 2355273 BlandJoe24
BlandJoe24's picture

agreeum, butum lika thosos ideaums sur la tabla

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 13:03 | 2355252 smb12321
smb12321's picture

Hollande's rhetoric amounts to an old-fashioned attack on wealth, investment and modern industrialism.  France has always had a soft streak for mom and pop businesses but their creation has virutally disappeared due to the insecurity.  Folks only invest or strike out when they are confident of a supportive atmosphere. Nobody with an atom of sense thinks this will occur on the Left.  Instead, look for a massive run on capital.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 05:07 | 2357512 zhandax
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Mom and pop will invest when they see the best chance they think they will get in the foreseeable future.  If the MSM wants to call the guy a socialist, we all know why.  Taxing the big corporations more and the smaller businesses less sounds like what needs to be done.  Now whether it happens that way is another matter, and why I wouldn't be gambling on an avowed socialist were I in France...

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 12:57 | 2355232 smb12321
smb12321's picture

If the Left wins capital will begin fleeing as has happened in Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal.  To fight the extreme left, the Socialist have had to radically up the ante,  Who in their right mind would invest in a France run by the Left given their "promises"?

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 14:20 | 2355531 Nothing To See Here
Nothing To See Here's picture

Do you imply that France is not run by the Left right now?

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 12:58 | 2355235 DoChenRollingBearing
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If France breaks (a SHTF there), we have 48 hours, tops, before that tsunami washes up on US shores.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 13:08 | 2355265 Dick Darlington
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"Just when i thought i was out they pulled me back in".

- Anonymous US money market fund manager with investments in french banks.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 12:58 | 2355237 vmromk
vmromk's picture

I still say Bernanke should go and FUCK HIMSELF.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 12:59 | 2355245 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

The divine left in France always undermines its own power at crucial moments, or just is "unlucky."  Indeed, Hollande's upcoming failure will be a near-term black swan. 

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 13:03 | 2355251 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I have reduced my OT posts dramatically, but can't resist the urge to go - only slightly, for what it's worth - off topic here, so forgive me.


The last thing I want to do is to feed anything remotely resembling a 'conspiracy theory,' but has anyone arrived at credible hypotheses as to how DSK would have governed as a French President, and more specifically, how his views and policies would have shaped French actions (or inactions, as the case may have been) regarding all things €, too-big-to-fail in the financial sector, and the EU itself?

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 13:10 | 2355270 The4thStooge
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There's a good chance he wouldn't have been on board with going after Syria and Iran. He was meeting with Gaddafi shortly before he got the honey-pot and the Colonel got the NATO liberation treatment.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 13:17 | 2355291 Ratscam
Ratscam's picture

i dont think there is a conspiracy although the details are seriously strange. However, this sex maniac is so full of himself and mentally deranged that all these hookers that came forward in the last couple of weeks, telling that they never had a client that was so abusive, would have been enough to get him out of the presidential picture.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 13:59 | 2355428 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

As a proud libertarian, I am willing to let other adults decide on what activities, perversions and sins they wish to pursue (while also risking their health and well-being - and depending on one's religious beliefs - maybe even an afterlife of eternal roasting), to the degree that their actions and behavior does not adversely impact me. If more societies arranged their 'public policy' and 'regulations' and 'laws' around this basic concept, and the people electing legislators restrained them by it, I dare say that 90% of taxes paid could be refunded, Big Brother would self-implode for lack of being able to justify its own intrusive nanny-ventionist existence, and we'd have a safer, cleaner, more creative, more productive and far better world.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:00 | 2356471 smiler03
smiler03's picture

I think you've failed to understand that DSK has been accused of sexual offences, not infidelity or anything like that.

Accused of rape and now claiming that he is protected by diplomatic immunity

Accused of "pimping" which is illegal in France.

The French have a proud history of completely ignoring their politicians private lives, this is not the same.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 23:14 | 2356902 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

First, criminal charges based on accusations of the alleged victim against DSK were dropped by the DA. I'm unaware of the actual truth of the events surrounding that incident. I have no knowledge of whether the act of rape was committed or not, but the prosecutor apparently came to the conclusion that it couldn't be proven by the legal burden required per criminal law standards.

More importantly, if you read my post above in a complete manner, you'd surmise that rape is not something that libertarianism would tolerate, as it constitutes action/behavior that adversely impacts others, referred to in economic terms as negative externalities.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 13:36 | 2355357 SDRII
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"Strauss-Kahn, also known as DSK, was on his way to meet German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Sunday, and to participate on Monday in a meeting of Euro-zone finance ministers. On Tuesday, finance and economy ministers from all the EU were scheduled to meet."

oh and this..

or this


Wed, 04/18/2012 - 13:03 | 2355254 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Last time FrAAnce had a balanced budget? Go back to 1974. Yes, really.


Some interesting tweets from financial reporter Fabrizio Goria last night:


"With a Hollande victory, France will be the next victim of markets sell-off", a SocGen senior Fixed Income trader told me // cc

"Sarkozy? A man controlled by Germany, I'm not worried by a Sarko 2nd mandate", a SocGen senior Fixed Income trader told me // cc

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 16:11 | 2355906 falak pema
falak pema's picture

well just look at US budget, it'll put things in perspective.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 13:04 | 2355260 vmromk
vmromk's picture

Vive, le shithole France !

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 13:06 | 2355262 Portugal
Portugal's picture

Everybody is a bit misinformed about the Hollande effect in Europe. In case of doubt, ask yourself why this very month the Rothschild family has decided to concentrate all its holdings in France and discontinue its UK office… ???




Check for the article on this on Reuters 5 April.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 14:04 | 2355462 DoChenRollingBearing
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Don't KNOW, but the Rothschilds are reportedly Socialists.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 15:27 | 2355731 machineh
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And Hollande reportedly is a stereotypical 'red diaper baby' Jewish leftist.

So presumably they'll get along just fine, non?

But with the German neighbors, it could be a little dicier ...

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 16:13 | 2355914 Don Diego
Don Diego's picture

Is Hollande a member of the tribe? my "jooradar" gives me a very strong signal but I have not been able to confirm it yet.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 13:17 | 2355263 JustObserving
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Sarkozy has been a warmonger and lead the attack on Libya.  

"Nicolas Sarkozy has transformed France from one-time vociferous pacifist to one of the West's eagerest warmongers"

Goodbye Sarko, you overstayed your welcome by a few years.

"Move over, Lawrence of Arabia. The Great Gallic Liberator of Libya (and any other gullible Arab in sight), neo-Napoleonic French President Nicolas Sarkozy, along with his sidekick British Prime Minister David of Arabia Cameron, gallantly strode into a cordoned off military airport in Tripoli to sing La Vie en Rose by the Mediterranean, thus celebrating the success of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's long bombing of Libya into "democracy"."

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 13:19 | 2355300 Ratscam
Ratscam's picture

A short, little motherfucking NAPOLEON! Guillotine!

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 13:32 | 2355343 silverscouseparis
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the worrying thing is a  move further RIGHT..this is a country where the national front gets 20% of the vote


Wed, 04/18/2012 - 14:26 | 2355552 smb12321
smb12321's picture

LOL, well there's not much room for a move to the Left.  With everything from health care to energy to banks under state control and where folks consider Socialism a relgion, a move rightward seems nonexistent. It's like worrying about a Green takeover of Switzerland or democratic takeover of Saudi Arabia. It just won't happen.  Societies begin to think lockstep as witnessed by the red/blue divide.  Look at CA - bankrupt, losing population, near the bottom on education, business, livability and taxes and folks keep voting (overwhelmingly) for the same crew time after time. 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 04:49 | 2357496 Ar-Pharazôn
Ar-Pharazôn's picture

mate................. i live in Switzerland, and we ALREADY are one of the greenest country in the world. out of nuclear in 15 years...............

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 13:08 | 2355268 misterc
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Back in the day when Mitterand was about to win it was said that Soviet tanks would arrive in Paris a couple of days later. Didn't happen.

I wouldn't bet too heavily on this "Hollande vitory = market selloff"-scheme.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 13:28 | 2355329 SDRII
SDRII's picture


Wed, 04/18/2012 - 13:08 | 2355269 Portugal
Portugal's picture

Francois Hollande is very wellcomed in the Euroland. Its one of Euro's best supporteres, albeight what the Anglo Saxon Mainstream Media says ( FT, WSJ, CNBC, etc )

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 13:14 | 2355279 drysafe
drysafe's picture

Most proposals actually seem quite reasonable. Don't forget that what makes a system/state less efficient in booming times may actually be its only chance for survival in times of crisis. In this case, I think an increased role of the state may be beneficial to the French economy. (For more on the above paradox, read Dmitry Orlov's "Reinventing Collapse")

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 14:50 | 2355630 smb12321
smb12321's picture

Right, because the French state should expland because it is dripping with excess cash.  LOL.  Jeez, do you laugh or cry when you folks pray for an increased role of the State when it has already morgaged their future and can't fix the present.  

Since centrally-run economies make decisions based on political and not market forces you get the inevitable - inefficiency, higher unemployement, fewer enterpreneurs (a dying breed in France) and eventually an inability to trick others into buying your debt.  The US has always been blessed with a private sector that until recently managed to ignore the many roadblocks set up by bureaucratic idiots in DC.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 15:09 | 2355682 Hedgetard55
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Public education, public housing...


With govt in control you get the worst quality good or service at the highest possible cost.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 13:15 | 2355284 WhyDoesItHurtWh...
WhyDoesItHurtWhen iPee's picture



"there is no Hell........ there is no HELL,

there is only............FRANCE!"


Wed, 04/18/2012 - 16:08 | 2355892 falak pema
falak pema's picture

wake up you are in the good ole USA of O'bammy and company...

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 13:17 | 2355292 Negro Primero
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...and Nigel Farage Is Back: "Euro Break-Up Just a Question of How"

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 15:02 | 2355663 Mark Carney
Mark Carney's picture

I'm just waiting for the headline of "Nigel Farage found drowned in his bathtub....with a curling iron thrown in.....with a bullet in his head....police believe suicide the cause"

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:05 | 2356498 smiler03
smiler03's picture

Wrong country.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 04:53 | 2357501 Ar-Pharazôn
Ar-Pharazôn's picture

he already had a plane accident and he survived..... stange eh?

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 13:18 | 2355299 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Does Hollande support referendums...?

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 13:27 | 2355321 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

although i am not a socialist, nor do i play one on television, it would not hurt my feelings at all to see hollande win if he shoves it up the ass of the banksters and the 1% nwo assholes...

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 14:24 | 2355549 Nothing To See Here
Nothing To See Here's picture

One thing is true of all socialists, they all believe in central planning. I'm not betting that Hollande is going to screw up the EU. He's likely gonna rank and file.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 13:33 | 2355340 Scalaris
Scalaris's picture


L'appétit vorace sexuelle de DSK, le pot-de-miel et la conspiration du l'élection Présidentielle Française.

You know it happened people.


Wed, 04/18/2012 - 15:59 | 2355865 falak pema
falak pema's picture

somebody has to rock the Oligarchy boat. It wont be the US sheeple. Lets see what the french do. 

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 13:42 | 2355370 jools
Wed, 04/18/2012 - 13:42 | 2355375 eckart
eckart's picture

Global banking cartel stoking fears of a socialist France. Quelle surprise!

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 14:09 | 2355478 jools
jools's picture

if France turns left and says go-fuck-yourself, it wil influence vote of other europe countries' people, wanting to say the same.

and if europe turns left and says go-fuck-yourself, it will influence...

a worst scenrio, but global banking cartel don't like this kind of risk

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 14:24 | 2355548 earnulf
earnulf's picture

So because a butterfly flapped it's wings (maid in NYC) a shitstorm is about to envelope Europe.     Karma, it's what's for the Future!

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 14:29 | 2355565 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

Its difficult to believe that the extremely powerful and infinitely well-funded PTB are going to let a regional election disrupt or bring down their criminal cartel.  These criminals routinely buyoff policians all over the world.  Is Hollande immune to their charms?  What are the odds Hollande will soon be singing the praises to the CBs (if he is elected)?

A more reasonable expectation might be that his election will help to raise the level of awareness of the real issues Europeans are facing and perhaps hasten the day of reckoning.

I have given up on the notion that people can vote a solution to the problem, or that any politician will be part of a solution (Ron Paul exempted).

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 14:30 | 2355572 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

You forget to mention income tax for millionaires will go up to 100%.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 14:33 | 2355581 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

I hope Hollande turns out to be as crazy as that bitch in Argentina and her commie pimps in Venezuela, Ecuador and Cuba.  Maybe he can start by nationalizing the French banks and announcing that they will be his agents for implementing a stimulous package that makes Commrade O blush.  After all the only thing that can mess things up faster then a Keynsian central banker is a friggin Commie.

BTW who lends money to communists?  If this guy takes over shouldn't France be cut off from the global capital markets?

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 15:33 | 2355742 machineh
machineh's picture

Mitterand tried a 'go it alone' stimulus in the early 1980s ... and the franc collapsed (DUH -- who could've known?).

Oops, but this time round there's no franc to trash! 

What's an honest looter to do?

'Angela ... nous avons une probleme!'

'Qui est-ce cet 'nous,' mon pote?'

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 16:15 | 2355840 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Mitterrand tried when Reaganomics was still on the drawing board and Volcker had jacked interest rates to +10%. In that contest French Keynesian borrowing to stimualte demand when Oil was at 35 USD/BBl was crazy as the world had a two year recession under the Volcker hammer. Its different today; Reaganomics has killed capitalism and now the whole house of cards is fiat pumped. Hollande will try and stimulate demand, using Krugmanomics, all the while plugging the hole on the Titanic; ever seen a three stooges movie? Good luck with that! But what margin does he have? None, its damned if you stimulate and damned if you don't. This house of cards has to fall. 

Nationalisation de facto or for real real of the banks has to come to first world. We will have to flush out the debt mountain like Hercules and the Augean stables. But where is our Hercules? 

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 15:31 | 2355738 Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

Hollande is terrible ... just like Sarkozy. If you think an elected politician can change something, you haven't been paying attention. The ECB president is not elected. The prime minister of Greece has not been elected. The head of the Italian government has not been elected. But they all come from Goldman.

Hollande or Sarkozy will be elected and are not bankers. They do not matter.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 15:51 | 2355831 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

doctor up the credentials and have him run here!

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 16:56 | 2356057 vh070
vh070's picture

Hmm… French banks to be nationalized before the end of 2012?

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 17:51 | 2356277 dinastar2
dinastar2's picture

Hollande victory has been a long time ago announced and all the market participants in the stock exchange have already priced in he will be the next president.But Hollande policies seems to rock the boat against germany proemience since Hollande will go head to head against the BCE , and against the golden rule of a balanced budget.Hollande will be elcted to create growth at all cost no matter what will be the method and its impact on french government deficit.Therefore there is possibility France+Spain+Italy and the other small endebted countries do form a monetary alliance to keep the Euro but with very relaxed budget rules.At this point the market will no longer buys the OAT ( french t bonds ) and Euro will start a freefall.I think we are on the verge of a downfall in the Euro currency.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 18:16 | 2356359 smb12321
smb12321's picture

Sorry but how can a bunch of states teetering on the edge of bankruptcy keep a sound currency (LOL) with "relaxed rules".   Relaxed rules translates to "running larger and larger deficits, printing as much money as needed and bitching as folks stop buying debt".  Europe was MUCH better off with national currencies since there really did exist a wall between productive and debtor nations.  Despite all the blah blah to the contrary Greece would be in a much better place if it had the drachma, devalued the currency and went on from there.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 18:15 | 2356357 DrunkenMonkey
DrunkenMonkey's picture

It is easy to misunderstand the French. We are like a rabble of spurned lovers, constantly sniping, bickering and talking shit about people behind their backs. The french press ranges from moronic to highly intellectual and Stephane Deo sounds like a loser if he thinks Hollande has a 75% chance of winning (it could just as easily be 'Mad Marxist Monk' Melenchon at this point).

The first round of voting on sunday will clear the decks and then we'll have a clearer picture for the second round (yes, it happens over 2 weeks), but my money is still on Sarko, even if it would suit me better if one of the 'socialists' won (i.e. interest rates to the moon and property prices to the floor - although transactions are currently down 32% year on year already).

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:08 | 2356514 smiler03
smiler03's picture

+1 Thank you for your insight.

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 18:44 | 2356409 jmc8888
jmc8888's picture

Hollande is bankster lite.  No real change.  Though maybe enough for a few sleepless nights on the markets.  The only real change candidate is Jacques Cheminade.  The rest are just cronies who don't know jack shit about what to do, so they'll do as they're told with maybe a few hissy fits and threats without the knowledge base to really change or do anything outside the bounds of their bankster controllers. 

No Jacques Cheminade, then France should do some introspective literary reading ala Les Misérables about their future.

The Irish went for change lite (real change was Gerry Adams), look at the nothing they've done.  So it's not about change vs change lite, it's the change that is needed vs status quo.  Unless it's Cheminade, status quo wins.  Every difference between the other candidates is inconsequential.


Wed, 04/18/2012 - 19:31 | 2356600 frenchie
frenchie's picture

both candidates (FH & NS) were at the Dîner du CRIF (French ADL) so no worries for TPTB, NJWO, etc...

Wed, 04/18/2012 - 20:10 | 2356716 Venerability
Venerability's picture

As we all know, the "four days" timeline is simply inaccurate. Round One is totally irrelevant. We all know who the two final candidates will be, and many do not even bother to vote in Round One.

Round Two is May 6th, which also will be the day of the Greek election, give or take a day or so.

The Europeans, with the assistance of the IMF and the rest of the world, may very well try their hardest to ensure UPwards European markets the next three weeks, to guard against the very instability so many on the Short side are pitching.

And M. Hollande himself will go out of his way to proclaim he is "pro Euro and pro Europe" prior to Round Two. Indeed, he is already doing so.

Traders - and funds - and banks - talking up instability as loudly as they can are being incredibly irresponsible.

They got away with it in 2008, hurting themselves more than anyone else in the bargain.

If one is sane and not a pure Nihilist, one hopes the Instability Mongers are roundly punished by the market - and the world - this time around. 

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