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Complete Cheatsheet For What To Buy Ahead Of QE3

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Fed and/or ECB intervention is coming: whether it is called LSAP, QE x, Nominal GDP targetting, selling Treasury puts, or what have you. A regime that now exists only by central planning intervention, by definition requires ever more central planning intervention to sustain itself, let alone grow further. Furthermore, the banks not only want QE, they need QE. And since central banks serve other banks, not the people it is only a matter of time. Don't believe us? Read anything written by Bill Gross in the past year. So what to do ahead of QE3? Luckily, SocGen has released a complete cheat sheet of not only the dates of the next steps, but what to buy and what to sell ahead of the announcement. In short - one should buy Mortgage Backed Securities, in order to "simply buy MBS before the Fed" - something Bill Gross knows too well and has been hoarding MBS relentlessly as a result, as reported here. More importantly - one should buy gold. Lots of it as "USD debasement restarts." You didn't think the Fed will allow US corporate earnings - the only thing keeping the market alive - to be crushed with a EURUSD that will soon go under 1.20, now did you? And as for crude going to $250 - yes, it may cause huge headaches for regular folks but for banks it means record bonuses, and as a reminder, the Fed works for the banks, not the people, pardon neo-feudal debt slaves...

SocGen on the sequences of events:

Weak Q1 12 GDP and softening inflation pushes the Fed to another round of monetary easing, in 2 steps:

  1. In January, the Fed pledges to keep real rates at 0% until unemployment falls below 7.5% or inflation moves above 3%,
  2. In March, the announcement of another round of QE, concentrated on MBS purchases (c. $600bn over 6 to 8 months)

In table format:

And here are your pair trades: long gold/MBS - short EUR (or USD - we disagree with SocGen that the dollar would benefit from QE3).

Finally, on gold: "Buy Gold, as its price is highly sensitive to US QE as every dollar of QE goes into M0, triggering debasement of the USD. $1900/Oz est. to close the gap with the monetary base increase since July 2007(QE1+QE2)"

 

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Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:37 | 2037278 Squishi
Squishi's picture

silver looks best now!

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:40 | 2037291 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Yeah!

And if i doesn't go X4 this time, it will go x8 when QE 4 is launched :)

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:28 | 2037418 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture
Rudolph and Yukon Strike It Rich

 

 

Does anyone know if Fractional Reserveless Banksters bounce?

 

*Joe Weasenthal & Andrew Ross-Sorking <3 The Bernank

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:29 | 2037430 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

Silver to a min. $1,000 / ounce.

TheSilverJournal.com

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:10 | 2037508 nope-1004
Fri, 01/06/2012 - 00:41 | 2038091 VegasRage
VegasRage's picture

That video could only get cheesier if they had played the soundtrack from the movie 2012 where everyone died.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:21 | 2037550 I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

qe 3 isn't coming printing never stopped,,,the reset is coming,,,,,it doesn't matter what a barrel of oil is at,,,,price at the pump will solve all supply demand problems on our own resources,,,,,we are going to have a boom in small cars and motorcycles this year ,,,,,,,

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 22:13 | 2037780 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

That's fucking hilarious.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:54 | 2037346 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

For me: Au > (Ag = Pt)  <--- as investments

To be safe and diversified, buy them all!

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:28 | 2037569 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

Thought this may interest you, Bombardier lay off

http://pressrepublican.com/0100_news/x58543428/Bombardier-lays-off-105-w...

The layoffs are the result of quality-control issues with bearing housing castings that Bombardier receives from an outside supplier, which are used in the railcars the company is manufacturing for the Chicago Transit Authority. The castings are used to attach the wheels and axles to the railcar body.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 22:29 | 2037816 trav7777
trav7777's picture

trade silver for its peak and assuming continued industrial demand.  But paper, not physical.  If SHTF in any meaningful way, silver is just too heavy to pack out.  Pt and Au.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 02:33 | 2038264 lemonobrien
lemonobrien's picture

yeah, lots of people don't understamd this.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 07:41 | 2038596 15horses1donkey
15horses1donkey's picture

It's electronic silver in the form of computer bits, generally stored or in transit on capacitor-charged silicon, iron coated plastic tapes or iron coated spinning steel or glass disks, in multiple secure locations directly or indirectly linked by copper wires, fibre optic cables or radio waves.

It isn't paper. And if it was, some MOFO would have smoked it, some banker would have shred it, or some hippy would have recycled it.

I mean, have you ever actually seen proof paper silver exists? Can you send me some for verification?

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:55 | 2037349 thatthingcanfly
thatthingcanfly's picture

Yeah, silver.

And powder, primers, casings, lead, spare dies & presses, NVG sets, freeze-dried food...

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 11:13 | 2039146 Cole Younger
Cole Younger's picture

Guns don't seem to lose value. They may not increase in value but they don't lose.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:06 | 2037378 xela2200
xela2200's picture

Silver is giving me an ulcer, but You are right.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:44 | 2037470 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Stop sucking on it.

;)

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:52 | 2037625 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

QE3 is coming and it's coming in a month.  Things in Europe and the US aren't as they appear.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 22:15 | 2037785 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

They're not completely fucked up beyond all repair?

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 00:21 | 2038054 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

BOHICA!

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 04:51 | 2038505 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Kinda OT:

Tiger's ex destroys $12 million mansion

Elin Nordegren levels a home that she bought shortly after her divorce from the golf star.

FROM:

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/golf-devil-ball-golf/tiger-woods-ex-wife-b...

 

Hell hath no fury...

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 11:15 | 2039152 Cole Younger
Cole Younger's picture

Mathmatically certain they are fucked up beyond all repair.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 21:29 | 2037690 Banksters
Banksters's picture

I'm starting to get REALLY FUCKING SICK OF THIS SHIT.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 21:59 | 2037753 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Just starting? What took you so long?

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 22:53 | 2037871 tabasco71
tabasco71's picture

Yeh, I screamed like that in 2007, 2008 and 2009, then I started putting my energy into finding a job outside of finance...

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 05:46 | 2038535 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Yes, I too have finally become enraged at Nathan Mayer Rothschild's devious shenanigans, allowing him to buy the British People (as debt serf collateral), in the wake of the Battle of Waterloo.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 05:54 | 2038542 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

you sound like a Napoleon symphatizer! shame on you! Dear old Natti saved, I repeat, saved us from Boney and his regime

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 06:31 | 2038557 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

 

 

NM Rothschild,
Full of Grace,
The Lord is with thee.
Blessed art thou among Shylocks,
and blessed is the fruit
of thy womb, Jesus.


NM Rothschild,
Father of God,
pray for us sinners now,
and at the hour of death.
 


Amen.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 12:18 | 2039420 VelvetHog
VelvetHog's picture

Word for word what I was going to say.  I'm out.  No more internet truth for me.  I can't handle any more.  Seriously.  Time to run the cards to the max and walk away from this money pit house.  Fuckin' Shit!!!!!!!

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:38 | 2037286 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

A bit more on where this "data" is coming from would be helpful.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:41 | 2037297 Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

'SocGen on the sequences of events:'

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:39 | 2037288 bahaar
bahaar's picture

Jeffery Gundlach (Doubleline) just said no QE3 between now and election.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:50 | 2037324 Boston
Boston's picture

Gundlach is one of the folks I listened to when I went long US Treasuries in 1/11, just about when Bill Gross and lots of other "experts" went flat or short.  

I'm with Gundlach, unless of course risk assets melt down before the election (an event with a fairly high probability), then even Gundlach would probably change his mind and look for QE3.... to counter the melt down.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:33 | 2037443 Excursionist
Excursionist's picture

I just can't fathom what the official (read: for public consumption) rationale could be for another round of QE, especially against a postive-trending macro backdrop in the U.S.  The Fed may have banks' interests in mind, but let's not forget the Obama administration isn't exactly a lap dog for Wall Street... no love lost there.  And let's also not forget that millions of wage slaves are heading to polling booths in November.  May Allah help Obama if gasoline is $4 / gallon or more.

I don't see this happening.  Agreed with Gundlach.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:38 | 2037599 Silver is King
Silver is King's picture

Have you seen who contributes the most to his campaigns?  I would call him a lap elephant.

 

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 02:22 | 2038253 Excursionist
Excursionist's picture

Actually, yes I have:

Notice the discrepancy between the two.  Banks accounted for 26% of Obama's top donors' contributions, whereas banks accounted for 60% of McCain's.  This isn't about who is the bigger scoundrel, however - I agree with the notion that both sides of the aisle are captured to various extents. 

The point is that if you accept these percentages as representative of the aggregate, then you'll also accept that Obama is less beholden than McCain would have been.  Layer into the discussion the fact that Wall Street contributors have been defecting en masse from the Obama camp in the last two years, and you'll perhaps arrive to the same conclusion I did.  Hence the lap dog observation.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 10:34 | 2039045 Rollerball
Thu, 01/05/2012 - 21:08 | 2037646 Dogfather
Dogfather's picture

"...Obama administration not a lap dog for Wall Street..."??  What??  Wake the hell up.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 23:03 | 2037897 LiquidityandLunacy
LiquidityandLunacy's picture

I dont think they are a stand out lap dog compared to other presidents. IMHO they are all in each others laps, none more or less than the others, except at times, more is asked (re, told) so they have to look more and more like lapdogs. The willingness has always been there.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 00:09 | 2038032 The Beam
The Beam's picture

Do we forget when their was SERIOUS TALK about Geithner stepping down and Jamie FUCKING Dimon (on of the biggest backers and supporters of Obama) becoming Treasury Secretary? Not a lap dog? NOT A LAP DOG? We remember when he argued that the Fed needed to remain independent and shouldn't be audited (when Barney Frank, Bernie Sanders, Ron Paul, and Rand Paul were calling for it from BOTH sides of Congress and the political spectrum). NOT A LAP DOG?

You're right... he isn't he a lap dog. He is a lapping donkey (get it....because he is a Democrat and that is their symbol).....Bad joke!

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 00:20 | 2038051 LiquidityandLunacy
LiquidityandLunacy's picture

Again, I didint say he wasnt, my point is that he is no different that any of them, but the situation has shed light upon all of them being lapdogs.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 00:29 | 2038070 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

They're all up in the Ivory Tower playing the Biscuit Game.

Guess who gets to eat the biscuit.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 23:11 | 2037914 asophist
asophist's picture

Watching Obama perform is just like watching Charlie McCarthy insult and threaten Edgar Bergen, or Howdy Doody insulting and threatening Buffalo Bob.  The ultra corrupt Wall Street International Investment Bankers are the ventriloquist telling their Obama-dummy how to threaten them to thrill the moronic crowds of oh-so-easily-manipulated voters.  Have you never seen the blooper video of the "eloquent" Obama degenerating into a slobbering idiot when the miniature radio receiver he wears in his ear malfunctioned at a town hall meeting so he could no longer receive prompts from his staff of ghost writers backstage?  The puppet will SAY anything to please OWS voters and then DO everything that Wall Street Criminals want done to stab those voters in the back.  The bankers OWN Obama, our first 100% fake cardboard president.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 02:41 | 2038273 Jam Akin
Jam Akin's picture

Yep.  Saw BO try to speak without a teleprompter once live in person / with my own eyes.  It was uncomfortably Fugly.  All he is really able to do is read from someone else's script and top it off with some faux Alpha banter.  What have we come to?

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:40 | 2037457 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Plus Gross' PTTRX fund is losing customers at an alarming rate due to underperformance, so maybe he's not the smartest cookie in the canister.

I'll keep an eye out for QE3 in case I want to take our stupid 401K out of ARTQX, BCSIX and UMBMX and put it all-in on FBIDX.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 12:32 | 2039481 nyse
nyse's picture

I agree. Things are not bad enough to prompt a nother round of QE in my opinion.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:40 | 2037295 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"And as for crude going to $250 - yes, it may cause huge headaches for regular folks but for banks it means record bonuses, and as a reminder, the Fed works for the banks, not the people, pardon neo-feudal debt slaves..."

Send crude to $250, please. 

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:02 | 2037335 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Iran + QE3, oil at $400, yes we can!

BAC at 50$ on profits of oil trading! BAC are geniuses! - Cramer 2013

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:41 | 2037462 Nigh Eve
Nigh Eve's picture

Oil above $200 => total erasure of middle class disposable income => massive defaults on all debt by middle class consumers.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:10 | 2037522 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Automobile will sales go to near zero. Bicycles will be worth their weight in Silver. Scooters will become the family car. City’s and towns will institute walking on the sidewalk tax and fine you if you walk in the roadway even if their are no cars. Trucks will be fitted with a gasifier using wood pellets for fuel just like vehicles operating on wood gas in WWII.


Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:32 | 2037582 toadold
toadold's picture

General Motors will introduce the new Chevy Flatulance powered by the most efficient gassifier ever. Priced at 100K dollars or two onces of gold. 

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 21:18 | 2037664 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Cars running on wood?!?!?!?!?!?  No way.  Cars only run on gasoline.  Not wood or electricity or natural gas or alcohol.  Only gasoline, bitches.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 22:26 | 2037806 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Is that sarcasm?

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 04:57 | 2038507 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Probably past gramp's bedtime, reading comprehension is a bitch when you're tired.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:09 | 2037524 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

And? Ben will print money for the banks or just take over all bad mortgages.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 21:52 | 2037743 Arrowhead
Arrowhead's picture

 Must suck to be middle class. Living like kings tonight- fresh crappie out of the cold depths of my lake and homebrewed all grain IPA from the bowels of my keg. $200 crude be damned!

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 06:27 | 2038556 akak
akak's picture

Buddy, if you've been reduced to eating some kind of crap from off a lake bottom, and drinking isopropyl (rubbing) alcohol, you have my sympathies --- you've got a HELL of a lot more problems than I do!

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:41 | 2058385 ManOfBliss
ManOfBliss's picture

Sorry his alleged self-sustenance has got you bet. Fresh fish sounds delicious right now.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:30 | 2037574 greensnacks
greensnacks's picture

I'm going to start selling bread. I'll be a millionaire!

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 22:43 | 2037846 mjcOH1
mjcOH1's picture

We'll all be millionaires.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:08 | 2037382 xela2200
xela2200's picture

Don't forget trading profits. Probably why the have gotten out of their short positions in PM. 2012 is going to be a feeding frenzy.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:27 | 2037427 Irelevant
Irelevant's picture

with all the wars factored in crude is already $250.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:29 | 2037572 CPL
CPL's picture

Bingo.

 

Otherwise known as subsidies.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:42 | 2037299 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

That dollar versus euro rise doesn't really sound logic to me.
The current trend is actually caused because we european... I mean our politicians and banks have fucked things up.... Even more than you guys... Your politicians and bankers i mean by that.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:53 | 2037341 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Our politicians and banksters are running neck and neck with yours...  All bad!

Re stronger dollar vs. euro, right after Europe breaks, so do we.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 05:53 | 2038541 Belarusian Bull
Belarusian Bull's picture

Reminds me of this classic from Monthy Python

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCyr1ugzxXM

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 06:11 | 2038550 falak pema
falak pema's picture

+10 thnks for the laffs; brilliant MP!

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:43 | 2037300 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Right on time with Morgan Stanley today pretty much saying they must print.

Oh my goodness, QE right into my veins please.

Everyone of those trading desks need it badly.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:42 | 2037302 SheepleLOVEched...
SheepleLOVEcheddarbaybiscuits's picture

gold is so underpriced its ridiculous.....its all crimex supression. DOW/GOLD should be 1:1, and its far from it.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 05:00 | 2038510 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Hmm, and for some reason, this gal won't give me the time of day:

http://galleries.danni.com/101419/photos/danni_ashe10/pics/danni_ashe3.jpg

Boo hoo!

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:43 | 2037303 a4ln143c2001
a4ln143c2001's picture

i guess the problem is when to buy it. everyone knows the QE has to come one of these days, but at spx around 1280 mark and US stocks trading at +20% premium over the counterparts in other regions...it's really hard to do this. I expect QE3 to come when spx is trading around 1150 so the fed will have an excuse (as evident by white house's denying the rumor to drag the stocks down until the perfect time)

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:46 | 2037309 fonzanoon
fonzanoon's picture

Horseshit.

They need a reason to do QE3. improving economic data, rising stock market, less weekly jobless etc etc etc. does not seem to indicate this is even close to happening.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:54 | 2037345 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

fonzanoon - sorry to disagree  but all the 'improving economic data' is controlled by who?  who?  20x who?   bennie controls it, and it's not real and he knows it.  and he knows the stock market is rising because, at this point, he (and g.o.d.) only know how he's printing the money, but he's printing it.  and it's not enough.  althought he is presenting himself as a very transparent guy?  qe3 is already on big time.  qe4 will be announced as qe3 - let's have some fun..  all assets, up, up, up

 

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 06:01 | 2038548 Belarusian Bull
Belarusian Bull's picture

The data is phony. According to USSR own data, it was buring the capitalists economically till the very last day of it's existance.

It does not really matter how do you want to call your next money printing round. It will be money printing in it's nutshell. A good example is the recent ECB 3-years loan program.

 

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:47 | 2037314 PicassoInActions
PicassoInActions's picture

When the fuck BOJ will intervene...... EUR/JPY needs a lift. Give us 300-500 pips move and then we cna short the hell out of it.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:46 | 2037615 Silver is King
Silver is King's picture

I was expecting 101 or so on this pair.  I really thought BOJ would intervene today ( last night for us ).  Maybe today?

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 21:34 | 2037700 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

Japan's multis have been buying overseas assets and having zero oil, steel and other materials are loading up at more than 30% discount due to strong yen and when they are ready to repatriate profits, they will give BOJ the signal to devalue.

Hence, wait to go short until before book closing this spring.

 

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 00:57 | 2038122 BigInJapan
BigInJapan's picture

Yes Yes and YES!

I'll put you over in my "smart pile" along with Tmosely.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 06:05 | 2038549 Belarusian Bull
Belarusian Bull's picture

What form do you think  it  will  take?

Outright printing or rate pegging, like Switzerland did?

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:48 | 2037318 chump666
chump666's picture

QE3 is already happening via HUGE swaps to Europe.  USD is bid

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:02 | 2037372 kito
kito's picture

sure it is, thats why all commodities sans oil (for its own geopolitical reasons) have snaked their way downward over the last quarter or so. silver at 29 and gold at 1600 hardly seems indicative of ongoing relentless printing......

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:09 | 2037385 xela2200
xela2200's picture

Yeap, looks like printing, but on the other side of the pond.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:24 | 2037421 chump666
chump666's picture

well it's only because a creditor nation (China) is probably crashing.  Fans of equities bid on money pumps are over estimating the QE3 impact.  No one knows what will happen when the US paymaster (China) crashes.  At this point the Chinese are buying  sh*tloads of $'s, as are the middle east.  Silver will sell hard because it is a indust commodity as will copper etc.  But all central banks are printing ECB/FED etc etc

Hope on an inflation based money print rally could be fatal.  I would buy gold on the looming Iran war with Israel and the US.  

Oil/Gold/USD will be bid.  Equities will be decimated in the coming months

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 05:03 | 2038515 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Fear not!  The Chinese new year is soon to begin -- "The Year of the Dragon!"

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:51 | 2037334 nflux
nflux's picture

for some reason, when i read this i can't help but think that they think the fed will start to hint at a rate hike which will weigh heavily on the markets. thus bringing about the political support to "save the markets" in march

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:40 | 2037600 CPL
CPL's picture

You understand to correct the decade long artificial, negative interest rates and stabilize the economy in the US alone it would require a rate hike to around 38%.

 

The longer they hold off, the higher it has to go and quickly.  Once interest rates go to that, everything you owe will nearly vaporize with how fast the fed and the US government are both crushed by their own mathematical trap.  What appeared as a great idea politically will eventually be directed into measurable real world costs.  Even as fantasy driven FIAT is, there are still some basic rules that have to be obeyed.  If the rates don't increase, then the printing mill must run harder and harder until inflation over runs the base of the currency and all physical asset leveraged into infinity.

 

The fed has no intention of turning off the printer.  If they touched interest rates, it would be about six seconds after the fact all governments fold.  The governments as they stand can barely make payments on less than .05% as the interest.

 

Could you imagine waking up and opening your statement and seeing a 400k mortgage rolling over like a timer at 38% just by watching it for a minute.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:45 | 2037611 nflux
nflux's picture

i didn't mean that they would actually do it, just that they would hint at it, just enough to spook to markets. just my 'between the lines' interpretation of their timetable.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:52 | 2037336 Let them eat iPads
Let them eat iPads's picture

Why would oil go to $250 in a slowing global economy?

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:57 | 2037496 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Because political games will destroy supply faster than demand falls.

Because it is currently the real global reserve currency.

Or any number of other reasons as people hedge for the future.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:55 | 2037347 buttmilk
buttmilk's picture

Buy Tampons shits goning to be gold.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:41 | 2037604 CPL
CPL's picture

Its true...there are still $40 boxes of tampons on eBay.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 22:29 | 2037814 chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

Thanks for the reminder...they don't cost $40, but they will be in the same stash w/ the unopened packs of Bike playing cards & pints of JD.

& just so... if there was any doubt... if the world doesn't blow up in the next ten years...all of this crap is being donated to the homeless shelter.

& for fuck sakes you IDIOTS...for 1/5th of your homeowners insurance policy, for a single year, you can insure against Zombie Apocalypse (or whatever) with a few hundreds of dollars of food for 15 years of storage...You don't need to worry about this shit..again...ever....it's taken care of....stick it in your basement or garage...get on with your life...again a no brainer...donate it to the food bank if everything turns up roses...Shit, it's tax deductible

Or, trust the Federal government will bail YOU out - LOL

Sheeple.

 

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 22:40 | 2037837 IndicaTive
IndicaTive's picture

<------listened

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 23:25 | 2037940 kekekekekekeke
kekekekekekeke's picture

tell me where to buy please

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 00:35 | 2038077 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

I can get 15 years of storable food for $50????  Sign me up.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 01:11 | 2038140 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

I'd like to get in on the 15 years of JD.

 

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 23:27 | 2037947 kekekekekekeke
kekekekekekeke's picture

http://www.divacup.com/ might be the future

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:56 | 2037350 PicassoInActions
PicassoInActions's picture

There will be no oil cost more than 150... no matter how much BS they sale to us.

There will be something to stop it or millitary actions. At this economy oil at 150+ is suicide and they will stop all tradings if it will be aproaching this price.

Oil companies don't buy the oil at market prices anyway. So stoping paper shuffle won't be the problem.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:49 | 2037482 oddjob
oddjob's picture

1 barrel has the equivalent energy of 23,000+ man hours of work. When used for food production $1000/barrel is still cheap.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:53 | 2037490 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Numerous means of artificial oil creation become economical at that point.

No, fuel does not need to have positive EROEI, it needs to be energy dense and easy to move and subdivide.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:23 | 2037554 oddjob
Thu, 01/05/2012 - 22:36 | 2037829 trav7777
trav7777's picture

No, they don't become economical at that point, idiot, because you can't print oil.

Energy resources are economical at EROI>1. 

You may still call them useful at EROIs below 1, but not economical.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 01:16 | 2038142 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

You're stupid and your mother dresses you funny.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:57 | 2037355 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Oil hits $150 Obama is done and so is this virtual reallity economy.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:32 | 2037439 Irelevant
Irelevant's picture

Eventualy oil will be 150$ then 300$ and so on.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 23:15 | 2037919 jomama
jomama's picture

On a long enough timeline...

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:59 | 2037359 kito
kito's picture

oh lordie lordie, we just cant let go of the notion of qe3. how many times does the qe3 train fail make it out of the station before people realize its not happening before elections. enough already!! NO QE3!! get a grip people!! the qe3ers are the ones smoking hopium now. 

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:03 | 2037376 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Agreed.  What are we at now...six months of this notion being posited?  

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 23:08 | 2037908 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

More than that. Hell, it's been bantered about on this site since well before QE2 even ended.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:20 | 2037410 blu
blu's picture

QE3 is already on like Donkey Kong, seen in the swap lines into Europe. Nearly every dime of that money will eventually boomerang back into the US markets to buy 10Ys and stocks (yes STALKS) on flight to (relative) safety.

The only thing being debated now is US home-grown QE3. Will they or won't they? I think we're just one massive Euro bank failure w/contagion away from that. If a big Euro bank goes tits-up Bennie will open the domestic QE flood gates so fast it will make your head spin.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:37 | 2037451 DosZap
DosZap's picture

blu,

. If a big Euro bank goes tits-up Bennie will open the domestic QE flood gates so fast it will make your head spin.

Bro, the FED has them open now, and have had,just under a different name.

Otherwise, the EU would ALL have already gone to the shitter,2-3 mos ago.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:42 | 2037466 kito
kito's picture

the fed has not been printing. dollar at 80, and gold down 16 pct from 1900 last year!!! thats not the natural outcome of debasement of the dollar!!!!

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 21:22 | 2037670 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

You're assuming there's still an adequate market for commodity price discovery. To that I can only reply, MFG.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 23:13 | 2037916 kito
kito's picture

Come back to me when silver and gold prices on coin dealers' websites are 50 percent higher than comex prices and maybe then we can have this discussion......

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 21:37 | 2037710 BigJim
BigJim's picture

...and gold down 16 pct from 1900 last year!!! thats not the natural outcome of debasement of the dollar!!!!

No, you disingenuous dork, it's the result of CB and bullion bank naked shorting of the paper market.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 23:08 | 2037904 kito
kito's picture

Big Jim, disingenuous? Are you aware of the definition? Please, do tell how i fit neatly into your characterization.....

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 01:37 | 2038179 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

he just did

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 03:14 | 2038300 I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

dollar at 80?? against what? WTF does that matter against other currencies.....The VALUE of the dollar will collapse overnight one way or another in due time.......The paper gold price has collapsed for first time in 3 years,  in fact the CEF is forming a head and  shoulders (negative),,,,,You may be seeing the beginning of the end......I have no idea where oil and silver will measure against gold in the endgame but this is happening overnight sooooooooooon,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:39 | 2037452 DosZap
DosZap's picture

^

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:40 | 2037461 chump666
chump666's picture

thats right.  The Fed will suck that back into the US market.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:56 | 2037630 razorthin
razorthin's picture

No fukking need when they can just fabricate public numbers and continue the stealth money-printing program.

Of course at some point when the face of even the most clueless sheep turns to alabaster, the razor will be erected.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:03 | 2037369 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Fed has to support CMBS as huge wave of 2007 vintage 5-yrs comes due this year on top of balloon loans. Liquidations have been rising for 3 months and issuance has been tanking. 

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:03 | 2037374 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

If that idiot keeps printing, even pupu can do well.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 00:38 | 2038082 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

I like pipi pupus....

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:09 | 2037377 DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture

 

Enter France

The Greek bailout has been pushed off 3 months down the line which is hilarious because they surely don't have enough cash to last this long. Talk about stupidity, this on it's own will bring on a panic to the markets once they figure out that this "kick" misses the can entirely.

Then we have Italy's Unicredit Bank, they sold equity yesterday that "had" to be priced 43% under the current market price in order to sell. Does this tell you anything?

 Of course, we shouldn't forget about Spain either, their real estate market is still in freefall threatening the banks and of course Spain's sovereign credit is being affected. Enter France!

They sold roughly $10 Billion worth of sovereign credit at wider spreads to German bunds and the bid to cover skinnied up bigtime. I thought back in Oct.-Nov. that once France caught the attention of the bond vigilantes that "game over" would be close behind. We will soon see I guess.

France is sitting at 85% which is the highest of the six largest European economies and now beginning to "atract a little attention".

"Attention" is exactly what they do not want and are surely hoping for no more, remember "hope" is the opiat of fools. "Attention" is exactly what they will get. While we are on the subject of big European sovereigns, I would like to remind you of the failed German auction back in Nov. I still believe the was a "warning" or a "shot across their bow" to get with the program or else.

Gemany is the benchmark but they are not immune either!

But hold on a second, France is the next targeted "deadbeat" because of an 85% debt to GDP ratio?

What's up with this? Didn't the U.S. just finish 2011 with a debt to GDP level of just over 100%?

And the "debt" used was only what was "on the books" and didn't even count future obligations or debt associated with the very "rare" occurrence of war?

Only God knows what the real debt to GDP number is. Oh yeah, that's right, the U.S. is the world's reserve currency and we have the ability to "print more" in a pinch so not to worry! 

The U.S. has not yet been "targeted". Well...maybe they have and we just know it because the Fed is in every auction and buying half of the offerings because the market place won't? ...And since there haven't been any "headline failures" of an auction, all must be well? Right? Surely if there were any REAL problems, Gold would be pushing new highs since it is the "canary in the coal mine"? ...Right?

Gold is THE only asset on the planet that is not manipulated...right? We know because the TV tells us so, the governments set ranges for currencies and intervene all the time, they set interest rates and we even know that equities are "helped along" when they need it by the PPT...but NOOOOOOHOOOOO, Gold is not manipulated. Right?

The U.S. is like an uber Houdini with a thousand "left hands" being used to distract from the "right hand". It has been this way for years and years, the problem now is that the "left hand" must actually point at other sovereign countries. Manipulating markets (not Gold though) is no longer enough because "things are so bad" that someone must take the blame. This "blame" has rolled from country to country and is currently being pointed at France as the cannibal chain grows.

What happens when there are no more "countries" left to blame?

What happens when it is determined that all sovereign government bonds suck (except the U.S. of course) and people decide that they want the ONLY AAA rated currency on the planet?

If these investors who have been carefully herded away from ALL currencies on the planet (except the Dollar of course) decide that they really do want some Gold?

Gold...as in the real thing and not pieces of paper representing Gold? What then?

www.lemetropolecafe.com

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:15 | 2037402 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

What happens when there are no more "countries" left to blame?

The USA declares the dollar dead and floats a new currency.  The thermonuclear option.  It's the only way to be sure.

Yeah, there'll be widespread destruction, but hey y'all, it's a war.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:36 | 2037590 bahaar
bahaar's picture

They'll intoduce the new and improved H1N1 virus into circulation--a virus which is very contagious and very fatal.   And then announce there's only limited amounts of vaccine available--enough for only young people and pregnant women.  Lo and behold, no more pension obligations.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 00:39 | 2038088 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

What does it matter if they call it H1N1, H5N1, mouse pox, ebola or anything else.

Result is the same, and, remember, Iran did it.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:13 | 2037395 xela2200
xela2200's picture

And here are your pair trades: long gold/MBS - short EUR (or USD - we disagree with SocGen that the dollar would benefit from QE3).

Not sure about the Short EUR position neither. Hard to figure out what the lunatics will do tomorrow. I can't figure the logic to their madness any more.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:23 | 2037420 blu
blu's picture

I can't figure the logic to their madness any more.

Europe: "Yay! We won!!"

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:21 | 2037411 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

More jawboning for QE3. ZIRP 4EVR.

I don't see anyway they can announce any QE as a program because politically it's dead on arrival. I think the Fed will continue with their stealth QE 4EVR via swaps which amount to LSAPS of MBS but will never announce as such.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:30 | 2037576 Killer the Buzzard
Killer the Buzzard's picture

Precisely

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:34 | 2037445 AUD
AUD's picture

one should buy gold. Lots of it as "USD debasement restarts."

The USD is already hopelessly debased, only a ginormous credit bubble keeps it afloat. Just when other governments' pull the plug is more difficult to ascertain.

There's every chance it won't be anytime soon, even to the detriment of those other governments' credit, since at least 1971.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:44 | 2037458 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

The QE-X is going to be substantial.

The dollar swaps for the European banks are in progress.

The ECB is going to do some major bond buying before March, which will only increase the need for swaps.

The FED will be opening the spigot for BAC, Morgan Stanley, and GS; who knows precisely how, as they will want to keep a lot of it in the shadow realm.  And of course, the FED backdoor lending facility for any $ amount needed to the TBTF's at 0.05%.

That's a lot of dollars sloshing about, Ben's "Ctrl $" keystrokes are almost unlimited.

For a time the dollar will ramp as the Euro drops and U.S. bond rates are pushed lower.  At some point the dollar drops and the rates pop as attention is turned to U.S. solvency and debt issues, but not for 8 months to a year.

Silver and Gold, Silver and Gold.

I'm hoping that the PM stocks get the wind back in their sails as well; mine are at extreme oversold conditions right now.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:42 | 2037464 john39
john39's picture

this all assumes that an engineered collapse will not be used to make dramatic changes the world financial system.  such changes could include drastically reducing the number of players and centralizing power and wealth.  if so, will QE get that done?

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:49 | 2037481 chump666
chump666's picture

the EUR is about to smash through Aug 2011 lows.

 

tight.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 22:38 | 2037833 chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

EUR/USD 127.9

Boom

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:06 | 2037501 alfred b.
alfred b.'s picture

 

    As the corrupt federal reserve and its european cohorts are about to play their last hand and major bluff, make sure that you're holding PHYSICAL gold and silver...AND also that you have access to it as bank holidays may be on the horizon!!

 

 

   

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:02 | 2037504 onarga74
onarga74's picture

The QE et al will start before the end of January.  Whopper crack is gonna happen shortly.  Just one of the many clues is the individual investor AA whatever is at 74% bullish. Someone know if that's a record or last time it was that ridiculous in the face of a disappearing currency, sabres in the gulf and whatever else?

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:04 | 2037509 waterdog
waterdog's picture

Did this post attempt to convince me to more gold in 2012?

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:08 | 2037515 Arttrader
Arttrader's picture

At $250 oil, look out for coal conversion to gases and liquids, profitable at $35/bbl oil (in today's $'s).  The US has got a crapload of coal and the long-term investment of a plant needs $500mm and assurance of a price floor in oil.  The environmental impact of ozone depleting methane byproducts will be an afterthought at $250.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fischer%E2%80%93Tropsch_process

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:08 | 2037517 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

What's the impact of QE3 + QE4 if Greece or Italy were to default?

BTW, 4=$ on a keyboard.....QE4 is when shit may really hit fan.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:10 | 2037525 onarga74
onarga74's picture

I don't know about buying gold ahead of a QE 3.  Whatever precipitates the need for the Q will be using GLD as source of funds, margin calls, and the like.  I would short gold right now with all my dough because it's going to fall apart here in a big way shortly. That is more than likely what will cause the QE3. You can buy it later when the dust settles.  It's going to take a long long time to revive this economy. 20-30% or more have a FICO of 219  They can't finance a Snickers.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 23:34 | 2037968 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

That's assuming that you can buy it later.

Pickings are pretty damn slim for silver right now- I shudder to think how tight the supply is going to get if the price drops further.  I'm sure gold is in nearly the same boat- but at a 50+:1 ratio, I'm not even looking at available gold.  I do know that I haven't seen gold in the local coin shop for a long time, and the silver keeps leaving without returning.  If it keeps up much longer, I'm going to have to just make my stash lie still, and stop using it in trades.  Doesn't do me much good to trade it away in the interest of building a local monetary sub-system when I can't replenish it.

Don't know about other "bugs," but right now is time to buy and hold metals out of the market.  If you sell, it's likely to be bought by those who intend to keep it, and you may find yourself without a chair when the music stops.  Good luck anyhow- I always envy those who make the big moves and cash in, but I'm too cautious, myself.   Good thing I don't make my living in financials. 

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:14 | 2037533 BlackSunshine
BlackSunshine's picture

Question: Would it be a good strategy be to run up all the credit cards (buying gold and silver, houses, cars, and boats) and wait for the debasement?

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 22:20 | 2037792 IndicaTive
IndicaTive's picture

For you? Yes.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 22:30 | 2037818 Bear
Bear's picture

Only if you can buy at .25% interest like the banks ... credit rates are upwards of 20% ... your timing would have to be great, unless you max out all cards with silver and gold and then just disappear

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:14 | 2037535 Geruda
Geruda's picture

What craziness you are having.   A lapping dog for wallstreet is for certain what the president who is Obama is being since the peoples who have been electing him.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 21:48 | 2037733 Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

Precisely!

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 00:41 | 2038093 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Cue AKAK....

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