Complete Cheatsheet For What To Buy Ahead Of QE3
Fed and/or ECB intervention is coming: whether it is called LSAP, QE x, Nominal GDP targetting, selling Treasury puts, or what have you. A regime that now exists only by central planning intervention, by definition requires ever more central planning intervention to sustain itself, let alone grow further. Furthermore, the banks not only want QE, they need QE. And since central banks serve other banks, not the people it is only a matter of time. Don't believe us? Read anything written by Bill Gross in the past year. So what to do ahead of QE3? Luckily, SocGen has released a complete cheat sheet of not only the dates of the next steps, but what to buy and what to sell ahead of the announcement. In short - one should buy Mortgage Backed Securities, in order to "simply buy MBS before the Fed" - something Bill Gross knows too well and has been hoarding MBS relentlessly as a result, as reported here. More importantly - one should buy gold. Lots of it as "USD debasement restarts." You didn't think the Fed will allow US corporate earnings - the only thing keeping the market alive - to be crushed with a EURUSD that will soon go under 1.20, now did you? And as for crude going to $250 - yes, it may cause huge headaches for regular folks but for banks it means record bonuses, and as a reminder, the Fed works for the banks, not the people, pardon neo-feudal debt slaves...
SocGen on the sequences of events:
Weak Q1 12 GDP and softening inflation pushes the Fed to another round of monetary easing, in 2 steps:
- In January, the Fed pledges to keep real rates at 0% until unemployment falls below 7.5% or inflation moves above 3%,
- In March, the announcement of another round of QE, concentrated on MBS purchases (c. $600bn over 6 to 8 months)
In table format:
And here are your pair trades: long gold/MBS - short EUR (or USD - we disagree with SocGen that the dollar would benefit from QE3).
Finally, on gold: "Buy Gold, as its price is highly sensitive to US QE as every dollar of QE goes into M0, triggering debasement of the USD. $1900/Oz est. to close the gap with the monetary base increase since July 2007(QE1+QE2)"
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silver looks best now!
Yeah!
And if i doesn't go X4 this time, it will go x8 when QE 4 is launched :)
Does anyone know if Fractional Reserveless Banksters bounce?
*Joe Weasenthal & Andrew Ross-Sorking <3 The Bernank
Silver to a min. $1,000 / ounce.
TheSilverJournal.com
Its potential is enormous.
A must watch:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IiarVvZguY&feature=player_embedded
That video could only get cheesier if they had played the soundtrack from the movie 2012 where everyone died.
qe 3 isn't coming printing never stopped,,,the reset is coming,,,,,it doesn't matter what a barrel of oil is at,,,,price at the pump will solve all supply demand problems on our own resources,,,,,we are going to have a boom in small cars and motorcycles this year ,,,,,,,
That's fucking hilarious.
For me: Au > (Ag = Pt) <--- as investments
To be safe and diversified, buy them all!
Thought this may interest you, Bombardier lay off
http://pressrepublican.com/0100_news/x58543428/Bombardier-lays-off-105-w...
The layoffs are the result of quality-control issues with bearing housing castings that Bombardier receives from an outside supplier, which are used in the railcars the company is manufacturing for the Chicago Transit Authority. The castings are used to attach the wheels and axles to the railcar body.
trade silver for its peak and assuming continued industrial demand. But paper, not physical. If SHTF in any meaningful way, silver is just too heavy to pack out. Pt and Au.
yeah, lots of people don't understamd this.
It's electronic silver in the form of computer bits, generally stored or in transit on capacitor-charged silicon, iron coated plastic tapes or iron coated spinning steel or glass disks, in multiple secure locations directly or indirectly linked by copper wires, fibre optic cables or radio waves.
It isn't paper. And if it was, some MOFO would have smoked it, some banker would have shred it, or some hippy would have recycled it.
I mean, have you ever actually seen proof paper silver exists? Can you send me some for verification?
Yeah, silver.
And powder, primers, casings, lead, spare dies & presses, NVG sets, freeze-dried food...
Guns don't seem to lose value. They may not increase in value but they don't lose.
Silver is giving me an ulcer, but You are right.
Stop sucking on it.
;)
QE3 is coming and it's coming in a month. Things in Europe and the US aren't as they appear.
They're not completely fucked up beyond all repair?
BOHICA!
Kinda OT:
Tiger's ex destroys $12 million mansionElin Nordegren levels a home that she bought shortly after her divorce from the golf star.
FROM:
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/golf-devil-ball-golf/tiger-woods-ex-wife-b...
Hell hath no fury...
Mathmatically certain they are fucked up beyond all repair.
I'm starting to get REALLY FUCKING SICK OF THIS SHIT.
Just starting? What took you so long?
Yeh, I screamed like that in 2007, 2008 and 2009, then I started putting my energy into finding a job outside of finance...
Yes, I too have finally become enraged at Nathan Mayer Rothschild's devious shenanigans, allowing him to buy the British People (as debt serf collateral), in the wake of the Battle of Waterloo.
you sound like a Napoleon symphatizer! shame on you! Dear old Natti saved, I repeat, saved us from Boney and his regime
NM Rothschild,
Full of Grace,
The Lord is with thee.
Blessed art thou among Shylocks,
and blessed is the fruit
of thy womb, Jesus.
NM Rothschild,
Father of God,
pray for us sinners now,
and at the hour of death.
Amen.
Word for word what I was going to say. I'm out. No more internet truth for me. I can't handle any more. Seriously. Time to run the cards to the max and walk away from this money pit house. Fuckin' Shit!!!!!!!
A bit more on where this "data" is coming from would be helpful.
'SocGen on the sequences of events:'
Jeffery Gundlach (Doubleline) just said no QE3 between now and election.
Gundlach is one of the folks I listened to when I went long US Treasuries in 1/11, just about when Bill Gross and lots of other "experts" went flat or short.
I'm with Gundlach, unless of course risk assets melt down before the election (an event with a fairly high probability), then even Gundlach would probably change his mind and look for QE3.... to counter the melt down.
I just can't fathom what the official (read: for public consumption) rationale could be for another round of QE, especially against a postive-trending macro backdrop in the U.S. The Fed may have banks' interests in mind, but let's not forget the Obama administration isn't exactly a lap dog for Wall Street... no love lost there. And let's also not forget that millions of wage slaves are heading to polling booths in November. May Allah help Obama if gasoline is $4 / gallon or more.
I don't see this happening. Agreed with Gundlach.
Have you seen who contributes the most to his campaigns? I would call him a lap elephant.
Actually, yes I have:
Notice the discrepancy between the two. Banks accounted for 26% of Obama's top donors' contributions, whereas banks accounted for 60% of McCain's. This isn't about who is the bigger scoundrel, however - I agree with the notion that both sides of the aisle are captured to various extents.
The point is that if you accept these percentages as representative of the aggregate, then you'll also accept that Obama is less beholden than McCain would have been. Layer into the discussion the fact that Wall Street contributors have been defecting en masse from the Obama camp in the last two years, and you'll perhaps arrive to the same conclusion I did. Hence the lap dog observation.
26/60 was to throw the books off in Vegas.
http://www.1800-sports.com/2008-presidential-election-betting-odds.shtml
"...Obama administration not a lap dog for Wall Street..."?? What?? Wake the hell up.
I dont think they are a stand out lap dog compared to other presidents. IMHO they are all in each others laps, none more or less than the others, except at times, more is asked (re, told) so they have to look more and more like lapdogs. The willingness has always been there.
Do we forget when their was SERIOUS TALK about Geithner stepping down and Jamie FUCKING Dimon (on of the biggest backers and supporters of Obama) becoming Treasury Secretary? Not a lap dog? NOT A LAP DOG? We remember when he argued that the Fed needed to remain independent and shouldn't be audited (when Barney Frank, Bernie Sanders, Ron Paul, and Rand Paul were calling for it from BOTH sides of Congress and the political spectrum). NOT A LAP DOG?
You're right... he isn't he a lap dog. He is a lapping donkey (get it....because he is a Democrat and that is their symbol).....Bad joke!
Again, I didint say he wasnt, my point is that he is no different that any of them, but the situation has shed light upon all of them being lapdogs.
They're all up in the Ivory Tower playing the Biscuit Game.
Guess who gets to eat the biscuit.
Watching Obama perform is just like watching Charlie McCarthy insult and threaten Edgar Bergen, or Howdy Doody insulting and threatening Buffalo Bob. The ultra corrupt Wall Street International Investment Bankers are the ventriloquist telling their Obama-dummy how to threaten them to thrill the moronic crowds of oh-so-easily-manipulated voters. Have you never seen the blooper video of the "eloquent" Obama degenerating into a slobbering idiot when the miniature radio receiver he wears in his ear malfunctioned at a town hall meeting so he could no longer receive prompts from his staff of ghost writers backstage? The puppet will SAY anything to please OWS voters and then DO everything that Wall Street Criminals want done to stab those voters in the back. The bankers OWN Obama, our first 100% fake cardboard president.
Yep. Saw BO try to speak without a teleprompter once live in person / with my own eyes. It was uncomfortably Fugly. All he is really able to do is read from someone else's script and top it off with some faux Alpha banter. What have we come to?
Plus Gross' PTTRX fund is losing customers at an alarming rate due to underperformance, so maybe he's not the smartest cookie in the canister.
I'll keep an eye out for QE3 in case I want to take our stupid 401K out of ARTQX, BCSIX and UMBMX and put it all-in on FBIDX.
I agree. Things are not bad enough to prompt a nother round of QE in my opinion.
"And as for crude going to $250 - yes, it may cause huge headaches for regular folks but for banks it means record bonuses, and as a reminder, the Fed works for the banks, not the people, pardon neo-feudal debt slaves..."
Send crude to $250, please.
Iran + QE3, oil at $400, yes we can!
BAC at 50$ on profits of oil trading! BAC are geniuses! - Cramer 2013
Oil above $200 => total erasure of middle class disposable income => massive defaults on all debt by middle class consumers.
Automobile will sales go to near zero. Bicycles will be worth their weight in Silver. Scooters will become the family car. City’s and towns will institute walking on the sidewalk tax and fine you if you walk in the roadway even if their are no cars. Trucks will be fitted with a gasifier using wood pellets for fuel just like vehicles operating on wood gas in WWII.
General Motors will introduce the new Chevy Flatulance powered by the most efficient gassifier ever. Priced at 100K dollars or two onces of gold.
Cars running on wood?!?!?!?!?!? No way. Cars only run on gasoline. Not wood or electricity or natural gas or alcohol. Only gasoline, bitches.
Is that sarcasm?
Probably past gramp's bedtime, reading comprehension is a bitch when you're tired.
And? Ben will print money for the banks or just take over all bad mortgages.
Must suck to be middle class. Living like kings tonight- fresh crappie out of the cold depths of my lake and homebrewed all grain IPA from the bowels of my keg. $200 crude be damned!
Buddy, if you've been reduced to eating some kind of crap from off a lake bottom, and drinking isopropyl (rubbing) alcohol, you have my sympathies --- you've got a HELL of a lot more problems than I do!
Sorry his alleged self-sustenance has got you bet. Fresh fish sounds delicious right now.
I'm going to start selling bread. I'll be a millionaire!
We'll all be millionaires.
Don't forget trading profits. Probably why the have gotten out of their short positions in PM. 2012 is going to be a feeding frenzy.
with all the wars factored in crude is already $250.
Bingo.
Otherwise known as subsidies.
That dollar versus euro rise doesn't really sound logic to me.
The current trend is actually caused because we european... I mean our politicians and banks have fucked things up.... Even more than you guys... Your politicians and bankers i mean by that.
Our politicians and banksters are running neck and neck with yours... All bad!
Re stronger dollar vs. euro, right after Europe breaks, so do we.
Reminds me of this classic from Monthy Python
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCyr1ugzxXM
+10 thnks for the laffs; brilliant MP!
Right on time with Morgan Stanley today pretty much saying they must print.
Oh my goodness, QE right into my veins please.
Everyone of those trading desks need it badly.
gold is so underpriced its ridiculous.....its all crimex supression. DOW/GOLD should be 1:1, and its far from it.
Hmm, and for some reason, this gal won't give me the time of day:
http://galleries.danni.com/101419/photos/danni_ashe10/pics/danni_ashe3.jpg
Boo hoo!
i guess the problem is when to buy it. everyone knows the QE has to come one of these days, but at spx around 1280 mark and US stocks trading at +20% premium over the counterparts in other regions...it's really hard to do this. I expect QE3 to come when spx is trading around 1150 so the fed will have an excuse (as evident by white house's denying the rumor to drag the stocks down until the perfect time)
Horseshit.
They need a reason to do QE3. improving economic data, rising stock market, less weekly jobless etc etc etc. does not seem to indicate this is even close to happening.
fonzanoon - sorry to disagree but all the 'improving economic data' is controlled by who? who? 20x who? bennie controls it, and it's not real and he knows it. and he knows the stock market is rising because, at this point, he (and g.o.d.) only know how he's printing the money, but he's printing it. and it's not enough. althought he is presenting himself as a very transparent guy? qe3 is already on big time. qe4 will be announced as qe3 - let's have some fun.. all assets, up, up, up
The data is phony. According to USSR own data, it was buring the capitalists economically till the very last day of it's existance.
It does not really matter how do you want to call your next money printing round. It will be money printing in it's nutshell. A good example is the recent ECB 3-years loan program.
When the fuck BOJ will intervene...... EUR/JPY needs a lift. Give us 300-500 pips move and then we cna short the hell out of it.
I was expecting 101 or so on this pair. I really thought BOJ would intervene today ( last night for us ). Maybe today?
Japan's multis have been buying overseas assets and having zero oil, steel and other materials are loading up at more than 30% discount due to strong yen and when they are ready to repatriate profits, they will give BOJ the signal to devalue.
Hence, wait to go short until before book closing this spring.
Yes Yes and YES!
I'll put you over in my "smart pile" along with Tmosely.
What form do you think it will take?
Outright printing or rate pegging, like Switzerland did?
QE3 is already happening via HUGE swaps to Europe. USD is bid
sure it is, thats why all commodities sans oil (for its own geopolitical reasons) have snaked their way downward over the last quarter or so. silver at 29 and gold at 1600 hardly seems indicative of ongoing relentless printing......
Yeap, looks like printing, but on the other side of the pond.
well it's only because a creditor nation (China) is probably crashing. Fans of equities bid on money pumps are over estimating the QE3 impact. No one knows what will happen when the US paymaster (China) crashes. At this point the Chinese are buying sh*tloads of $'s, as are the middle east. Silver will sell hard because it is a indust commodity as will copper etc. But all central banks are printing ECB/FED etc etc
Hope on an inflation based money print rally could be fatal. I would buy gold on the looming Iran war with Israel and the US.
Oil/Gold/USD will be bid. Equities will be decimated in the coming months
Fear not! The Chinese new year is soon to begin -- "The Year of the Dragon!"
for some reason, when i read this i can't help but think that they think the fed will start to hint at a rate hike which will weigh heavily on the markets. thus bringing about the political support to "save the markets" in march
You understand to correct the decade long artificial, negative interest rates and stabilize the economy in the US alone it would require a rate hike to around 38%.
The longer they hold off, the higher it has to go and quickly. Once interest rates go to that, everything you owe will nearly vaporize with how fast the fed and the US government are both crushed by their own mathematical trap. What appeared as a great idea politically will eventually be directed into measurable real world costs. Even as fantasy driven FIAT is, there are still some basic rules that have to be obeyed. If the rates don't increase, then the printing mill must run harder and harder until inflation over runs the base of the currency and all physical asset leveraged into infinity.
The fed has no intention of turning off the printer. If they touched interest rates, it would be about six seconds after the fact all governments fold. The governments as they stand can barely make payments on less than .05% as the interest.
Could you imagine waking up and opening your statement and seeing a 400k mortgage rolling over like a timer at 38% just by watching it for a minute.
i didn't mean that they would actually do it, just that they would hint at it, just enough to spook to markets. just my 'between the lines' interpretation of their timetable.
Why would oil go to $250 in a slowing global economy?
Because political games will destroy supply faster than demand falls.
Because it is currently the real global reserve currency.
Or any number of other reasons as people hedge for the future.
Buy Tampons shits goning to be gold.