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Complete Cheatsheet For What To Buy Ahead Of QE3

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Fed and/or ECB intervention is coming: whether it is called LSAP, QE x, Nominal GDP targetting, selling Treasury puts, or what have you. A regime that now exists only by central planning intervention, by definition requires ever more central planning intervention to sustain itself, let alone grow further. Furthermore, the banks not only want QE, they need QE. And since central banks serve other banks, not the people it is only a matter of time. Don't believe us? Read anything written by Bill Gross in the past year. So what to do ahead of QE3? Luckily, SocGen has released a complete cheat sheet of not only the dates of the next steps, but what to buy and what to sell ahead of the announcement. In short - one should buy Mortgage Backed Securities, in order to "simply buy MBS before the Fed" - something Bill Gross knows too well and has been hoarding MBS relentlessly as a result, as reported here. More importantly - one should buy gold. Lots of it as "USD debasement restarts." You didn't think the Fed will allow US corporate earnings - the only thing keeping the market alive - to be crushed with a EURUSD that will soon go under 1.20, now did you? And as for crude going to $250 - yes, it may cause huge headaches for regular folks but for banks it means record bonuses, and as a reminder, the Fed works for the banks, not the people, pardon neo-feudal debt slaves...

SocGen on the sequences of events:

Weak Q1 12 GDP and softening inflation pushes the Fed to another round of monetary easing, in 2 steps:

  1. In January, the Fed pledges to keep real rates at 0% until unemployment falls below 7.5% or inflation moves above 3%,
  2. In March, the announcement of another round of QE, concentrated on MBS purchases (c. $600bn over 6 to 8 months)

In table format:

And here are your pair trades: long gold/MBS - short EUR (or USD - we disagree with SocGen that the dollar would benefit from QE3).

Finally, on gold: "Buy Gold, as its price is highly sensitive to US QE as every dollar of QE goes into M0, triggering debasement of the USD. $1900/Oz est. to close the gap with the monetary base increase since July 2007(QE1+QE2)"

 


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Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:37 | Link to Comment Squishi
Squishi's picture

silver looks best now!

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:40 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Yeah!

And if i doesn't go X4 this time, it will go x8 when QE 4 is launched :)

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:28 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture
Rudolph and Yukon Strike It Rich

 

 

Does anyone know if Fractional Reserveless Banksters bounce?

 

*Joe Weasenthal & Andrew Ross-Sorking <3 The Bernank

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:29 | Link to Comment TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

Silver to a min. $1,000 / ounce.

TheSilverJournal.com

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:10 | Link to Comment nope-1004
Fri, 01/06/2012 - 00:41 | Link to Comment VegasRage
VegasRage's picture

That video could only get cheesier if they had played the soundtrack from the movie 2012 where everyone died.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:21 | Link to Comment I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

qe 3 isn't coming printing never stopped,,,the reset is coming,,,,,it doesn't matter what a barrel of oil is at,,,,price at the pump will solve all supply demand problems on our own resources,,,,,we are going to have a boom in small cars and motorcycles this year ,,,,,,,

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 22:13 | Link to Comment WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

That's fucking hilarious.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:54 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

For me: Au > (Ag = Pt)  <--- as investments

To be safe and diversified, buy them all!

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:28 | Link to Comment Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

Thought this may interest you, Bombardier lay off

http://pressrepublican.com/0100_news/x58543428/Bombardier-lays-off-105-w...

The layoffs are the result of quality-control issues with bearing housing castings that Bombardier receives from an outside supplier, which are used in the railcars the company is manufacturing for the Chicago Transit Authority. The castings are used to attach the wheels and axles to the railcar body.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 22:29 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

trade silver for its peak and assuming continued industrial demand.  But paper, not physical.  If SHTF in any meaningful way, silver is just too heavy to pack out.  Pt and Au.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 02:33 | Link to Comment lemonobrien
lemonobrien's picture

yeah, lots of people don't understamd this.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 07:41 | Link to Comment 15horses1donkey
15horses1donkey's picture

It's electronic silver in the form of computer bits, generally stored or in transit on capacitor-charged silicon, iron coated plastic tapes or iron coated spinning steel or glass disks, in multiple secure locations directly or indirectly linked by copper wires, fibre optic cables or radio waves.

It isn't paper. And if it was, some MOFO would have smoked it, some banker would have shred it, or some hippy would have recycled it.

I mean, have you ever actually seen proof paper silver exists? Can you send me some for verification?

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:55 | Link to Comment thatthingcanfly
thatthingcanfly's picture

Yeah, silver.

And powder, primers, casings, lead, spare dies & presses, NVG sets, freeze-dried food...

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 11:13 | Link to Comment Cole Younger
Cole Younger's picture

Guns don't seem to lose value. They may not increase in value but they don't lose.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:06 | Link to Comment xela2200
xela2200's picture

Silver is giving me an ulcer, but You are right.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:44 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Stop sucking on it.

;)

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:52 | Link to Comment Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

QE3 is coming and it's coming in a month.  Things in Europe and the US aren't as they appear.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 22:15 | Link to Comment WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

They're not completely fucked up beyond all repair?

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 00:21 | Link to Comment UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

BOHICA!

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 04:51 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Kinda OT:

Tiger's ex destroys $12 million mansion

Elin Nordegren levels a home that she bought shortly after her divorce from the golf star.

FROM:

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/golf-devil-ball-golf/tiger-woods-ex-wife-b...

 

Hell hath no fury...

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 11:15 | Link to Comment Cole Younger
Cole Younger's picture

Mathmatically certain they are fucked up beyond all repair.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 21:29 | Link to Comment Banksters
Banksters's picture

I'm starting to get REALLY FUCKING SICK OF THIS SHIT.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 21:59 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Just starting? What took you so long?

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 22:53 | Link to Comment tabasco71
tabasco71's picture

Yeh, I screamed like that in 2007, 2008 and 2009, then I started putting my energy into finding a job outside of finance...

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 05:46 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Yes, I too have finally become enraged at Nathan Mayer Rothschild's devious shenanigans, allowing him to buy the British People (as debt serf collateral), in the wake of the Battle of Waterloo.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 05:54 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

you sound like a Napoleon symphatizer! shame on you! Dear old Natti saved, I repeat, saved us from Boney and his regime

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 06:31 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

 

 

NM Rothschild,
Full of Grace,
The Lord is with thee.
Blessed art thou among Shylocks,
and blessed is the fruit
of thy womb, Jesus.


NM Rothschild,
Father of God,
pray for us sinners now,
and at the hour of death.
 


Amen.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 12:18 | Link to Comment VelvetHog
VelvetHog's picture

Word for word what I was going to say.  I'm out.  No more internet truth for me.  I can't handle any more.  Seriously.  Time to run the cards to the max and walk away from this money pit house.  Fuckin' Shit!!!!!!!

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:38 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

A bit more on where this "data" is coming from would be helpful.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:41 | Link to Comment Sancho Ponzi
Sancho Ponzi's picture

'SocGen on the sequences of events:'

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:39 | Link to Comment bahaar
bahaar's picture

Jeffery Gundlach (Doubleline) just said no QE3 between now and election.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:50 | Link to Comment Boston
Boston's picture

Gundlach is one of the folks I listened to when I went long US Treasuries in 1/11, just about when Bill Gross and lots of other "experts" went flat or short.  

I'm with Gundlach, unless of course risk assets melt down before the election (an event with a fairly high probability), then even Gundlach would probably change his mind and look for QE3.... to counter the melt down.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:33 | Link to Comment Excursionist
Excursionist's picture

I just can't fathom what the official (read: for public consumption) rationale could be for another round of QE, especially against a postive-trending macro backdrop in the U.S.  The Fed may have banks' interests in mind, but let's not forget the Obama administration isn't exactly a lap dog for Wall Street... no love lost there.  And let's also not forget that millions of wage slaves are heading to polling booths in November.  May Allah help Obama if gasoline is $4 / gallon or more.

I don't see this happening.  Agreed with Gundlach.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:38 | Link to Comment Silver is King
Silver is King's picture

Have you seen who contributes the most to his campaigns?  I would call him a lap elephant.

 

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 02:22 | Link to Comment Excursionist
Excursionist's picture

Actually, yes I have:

Notice the discrepancy between the two.  Banks accounted for 26% of Obama's top donors' contributions, whereas banks accounted for 60% of McCain's.  This isn't about who is the bigger scoundrel, however - I agree with the notion that both sides of the aisle are captured to various extents. 

The point is that if you accept these percentages as representative of the aggregate, then you'll also accept that Obama is less beholden than McCain would have been.  Layer into the discussion the fact that Wall Street contributors have been defecting en masse from the Obama camp in the last two years, and you'll perhaps arrive to the same conclusion I did.  Hence the lap dog observation.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 10:34 | Link to Comment Rollerball
Thu, 01/05/2012 - 21:08 | Link to Comment Dogfather
Dogfather's picture

"...Obama administration not a lap dog for Wall Street..."??  What??  Wake the hell up.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 23:03 | Link to Comment LiquidityandLunacy
LiquidityandLunacy's picture

I dont think they are a stand out lap dog compared to other presidents. IMHO they are all in each others laps, none more or less than the others, except at times, more is asked (re, told) so they have to look more and more like lapdogs. The willingness has always been there.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 00:09 | Link to Comment The Beam
The Beam's picture

Do we forget when their was SERIOUS TALK about Geithner stepping down and Jamie FUCKING Dimon (on of the biggest backers and supporters of Obama) becoming Treasury Secretary? Not a lap dog? NOT A LAP DOG? We remember when he argued that the Fed needed to remain independent and shouldn't be audited (when Barney Frank, Bernie Sanders, Ron Paul, and Rand Paul were calling for it from BOTH sides of Congress and the political spectrum). NOT A LAP DOG?

You're right... he isn't he a lap dog. He is a lapping donkey (get it....because he is a Democrat and that is their symbol).....Bad joke!

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 00:20 | Link to Comment LiquidityandLunacy
LiquidityandLunacy's picture

Again, I didint say he wasnt, my point is that he is no different that any of them, but the situation has shed light upon all of them being lapdogs.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 00:29 | Link to Comment UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

They're all up in the Ivory Tower playing the Biscuit Game.

Guess who gets to eat the biscuit.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 23:11 | Link to Comment asophist
asophist's picture

Watching Obama perform is just like watching Charlie McCarthy insult and threaten Edgar Bergen, or Howdy Doody insulting and threatening Buffalo Bob.  The ultra corrupt Wall Street International Investment Bankers are the ventriloquist telling their Obama-dummy how to threaten them to thrill the moronic crowds of oh-so-easily-manipulated voters.  Have you never seen the blooper video of the "eloquent" Obama degenerating into a slobbering idiot when the miniature radio receiver he wears in his ear malfunctioned at a town hall meeting so he could no longer receive prompts from his staff of ghost writers backstage?  The puppet will SAY anything to please OWS voters and then DO everything that Wall Street Criminals want done to stab those voters in the back.  The bankers OWN Obama, our first 100% fake cardboard president.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 02:41 | Link to Comment Jam Akin
Jam Akin's picture

Yep.  Saw BO try to speak without a teleprompter once live in person / with my own eyes.  It was uncomfortably Fugly.  All he is really able to do is read from someone else's script and top it off with some faux Alpha banter.  What have we come to?

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:40 | Link to Comment Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Plus Gross' PTTRX fund is losing customers at an alarming rate due to underperformance, so maybe he's not the smartest cookie in the canister.

I'll keep an eye out for QE3 in case I want to take our stupid 401K out of ARTQX, BCSIX and UMBMX and put it all-in on FBIDX.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 12:32 | Link to Comment nyse
nyse's picture

I agree. Things are not bad enough to prompt a nother round of QE in my opinion.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:40 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"And as for crude going to $250 - yes, it may cause huge headaches for regular folks but for banks it means record bonuses, and as a reminder, the Fed works for the banks, not the people, pardon neo-feudal debt slaves..."

Send crude to $250, please. 

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:02 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Iran + QE3, oil at $400, yes we can!

BAC at 50$ on profits of oil trading! BAC are geniuses! - Cramer 2013

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:41 | Link to Comment Nigh Eve
Nigh Eve's picture

Oil above $200 => total erasure of middle class disposable income => massive defaults on all debt by middle class consumers.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:10 | Link to Comment Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Automobile will sales go to near zero. Bicycles will be worth their weight in Silver. Scooters will become the family car. City’s and towns will institute walking on the sidewalk tax and fine you if you walk in the roadway even if their are no cars. Trucks will be fitted with a gasifier using wood pellets for fuel just like vehicles operating on wood gas in WWII.


Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:32 | Link to Comment toadold
toadold's picture

General Motors will introduce the new Chevy Flatulance powered by the most efficient gassifier ever. Priced at 100K dollars or two onces of gold. 

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 21:18 | Link to Comment Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Cars running on wood?!?!?!?!?!?  No way.  Cars only run on gasoline.  Not wood or electricity or natural gas or alcohol.  Only gasoline, bitches.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 22:26 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Is that sarcasm?

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 04:57 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Probably past gramp's bedtime, reading comprehension is a bitch when you're tired.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:09 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

And? Ben will print money for the banks or just take over all bad mortgages.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 21:52 | Link to Comment Arrowhead
Arrowhead's picture

 Must suck to be middle class. Living like kings tonight- fresh crappie out of the cold depths of my lake and homebrewed all grain IPA from the bowels of my keg. $200 crude be damned!

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 06:27 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Buddy, if you've been reduced to eating some kind of crap from off a lake bottom, and drinking isopropyl (rubbing) alcohol, you have my sympathies --- you've got a HELL of a lot more problems than I do!

Thu, 01/12/2012 - 11:41 | Link to Comment ManOfBliss
ManOfBliss's picture

Sorry his alleged self-sustenance has got you bet. Fresh fish sounds delicious right now.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:30 | Link to Comment greensnacks
greensnacks's picture

I'm going to start selling bread. I'll be a millionaire!

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 22:43 | Link to Comment mjcOH1
mjcOH1's picture

We'll all be millionaires.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:08 | Link to Comment xela2200
xela2200's picture

Don't forget trading profits. Probably why the have gotten out of their short positions in PM. 2012 is going to be a feeding frenzy.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:27 | Link to Comment Irelevant
Irelevant's picture

with all the wars factored in crude is already $250.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:29 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

Bingo.

 

Otherwise known as subsidies.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:42 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

That dollar versus euro rise doesn't really sound logic to me.
The current trend is actually caused because we european... I mean our politicians and banks have fucked things up.... Even more than you guys... Your politicians and bankers i mean by that.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:53 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Our politicians and banksters are running neck and neck with yours...  All bad!

Re stronger dollar vs. euro, right after Europe breaks, so do we.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 05:53 | Link to Comment Belarusian Bull
Belarusian Bull's picture

Reminds me of this classic from Monthy Python

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCyr1ugzxXM

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 06:11 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

+10 thnks for the laffs; brilliant MP!

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:43 | Link to Comment Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Right on time with Morgan Stanley today pretty much saying they must print.

Oh my goodness, QE right into my veins please.

Everyone of those trading desks need it badly.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:42 | Link to Comment SheepleLOVEched...
SheepleLOVEcheddarbaybiscuits's picture

gold is so underpriced its ridiculous.....its all crimex supression. DOW/GOLD should be 1:1, and its far from it.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 05:00 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Hmm, and for some reason, this gal won't give me the time of day:

http://galleries.danni.com/101419/photos/danni_ashe10/pics/danni_ashe3.jpg

Boo hoo!

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:43 | Link to Comment a4ln143c2001
a4ln143c2001's picture

i guess the problem is when to buy it. everyone knows the QE has to come one of these days, but at spx around 1280 mark and US stocks trading at +20% premium over the counterparts in other regions...it's really hard to do this. I expect QE3 to come when spx is trading around 1150 so the fed will have an excuse (as evident by white house's denying the rumor to drag the stocks down until the perfect time)

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:46 | Link to Comment fonzanoon
fonzanoon's picture

Horseshit.

They need a reason to do QE3. improving economic data, rising stock market, less weekly jobless etc etc etc. does not seem to indicate this is even close to happening.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:54 | Link to Comment lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

fonzanoon - sorry to disagree  but all the 'improving economic data' is controlled by who?  who?  20x who?   bennie controls it, and it's not real and he knows it.  and he knows the stock market is rising because, at this point, he (and g.o.d.) only know how he's printing the money, but he's printing it.  and it's not enough.  althought he is presenting himself as a very transparent guy?  qe3 is already on big time.  qe4 will be announced as qe3 - let's have some fun..  all assets, up, up, up

 

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 06:01 | Link to Comment Belarusian Bull
Belarusian Bull's picture

The data is phony. According to USSR own data, it was buring the capitalists economically till the very last day of it's existance.

It does not really matter how do you want to call your next money printing round. It will be money printing in it's nutshell. A good example is the recent ECB 3-years loan program.

 

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:47 | Link to Comment PicassoInActions
PicassoInActions's picture

When the fuck BOJ will intervene...... EUR/JPY needs a lift. Give us 300-500 pips move and then we cna short the hell out of it.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:46 | Link to Comment Silver is King
Silver is King's picture

I was expecting 101 or so on this pair.  I really thought BOJ would intervene today ( last night for us ).  Maybe today?

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 21:34 | Link to Comment Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

Japan's multis have been buying overseas assets and having zero oil, steel and other materials are loading up at more than 30% discount due to strong yen and when they are ready to repatriate profits, they will give BOJ the signal to devalue.

Hence, wait to go short until before book closing this spring.

 

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 00:57 | Link to Comment BigInJapan
BigInJapan's picture

Yes Yes and YES!

I'll put you over in my "smart pile" along with Tmosely.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 06:05 | Link to Comment Belarusian Bull
Belarusian Bull's picture

What form do you think  it  will  take?

Outright printing or rate pegging, like Switzerland did?

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:48 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

QE3 is already happening via HUGE swaps to Europe.  USD is bid

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:02 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

sure it is, thats why all commodities sans oil (for its own geopolitical reasons) have snaked their way downward over the last quarter or so. silver at 29 and gold at 1600 hardly seems indicative of ongoing relentless printing......

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:09 | Link to Comment xela2200
xela2200's picture

Yeap, looks like printing, but on the other side of the pond.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:24 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

well it's only because a creditor nation (China) is probably crashing.  Fans of equities bid on money pumps are over estimating the QE3 impact.  No one knows what will happen when the US paymaster (China) crashes.  At this point the Chinese are buying  sh*tloads of $'s, as are the middle east.  Silver will sell hard because it is a indust commodity as will copper etc.  But all central banks are printing ECB/FED etc etc

Hope on an inflation based money print rally could be fatal.  I would buy gold on the looming Iran war with Israel and the US.  

Oil/Gold/USD will be bid.  Equities will be decimated in the coming months

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 05:03 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Fear not!  The Chinese new year is soon to begin -- "The Year of the Dragon!"

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:51 | Link to Comment nflux
nflux's picture

for some reason, when i read this i can't help but think that they think the fed will start to hint at a rate hike which will weigh heavily on the markets. thus bringing about the political support to "save the markets" in march

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:40 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

You understand to correct the decade long artificial, negative interest rates and stabilize the economy in the US alone it would require a rate hike to around 38%.

 

The longer they hold off, the higher it has to go and quickly.  Once interest rates go to that, everything you owe will nearly vaporize with how fast the fed and the US government are both crushed by their own mathematical trap.  What appeared as a great idea politically will eventually be directed into measurable real world costs.  Even as fantasy driven FIAT is, there are still some basic rules that have to be obeyed.  If the rates don't increase, then the printing mill must run harder and harder until inflation over runs the base of the currency and all physical asset leveraged into infinity.

 

The fed has no intention of turning off the printer.  If they touched interest rates, it would be about six seconds after the fact all governments fold.  The governments as they stand can barely make payments on less than .05% as the interest.

 

Could you imagine waking up and opening your statement and seeing a 400k mortgage rolling over like a timer at 38% just by watching it for a minute.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:45 | Link to Comment nflux
nflux's picture

i didn't mean that they would actually do it, just that they would hint at it, just enough to spook to markets. just my 'between the lines' interpretation of their timetable.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:52 | Link to Comment Let them eat iPads
Let them eat iPads's picture

Why would oil go to $250 in a slowing global economy?

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:57 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Because political games will destroy supply faster than demand falls.

Because it is currently the real global reserve currency.

Or any number of other reasons as people hedge for the future.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:55 | Link to Comment buttmilk
buttmilk's picture

Buy Tampons shits goning to be gold.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:41 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

Its true...there are still $40 boxes of tampons on eBay.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 22:29 | Link to Comment chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

Thanks for the reminder...they don't cost $40, but they will be in the same stash w/ the unopened packs of Bike playing cards & pints of JD.

& just so... if there was any doubt... if the world doesn't blow up in the next ten years...all of this crap is being donated to the homeless shelter.

& for fuck sakes you IDIOTS...for 1/5th of your homeowners insurance policy, for a single year, you can insure against Zombie Apocalypse (or whatever) with a few hundreds of dollars of food for 15 years of storage...You don't need to worry about this shit..again...ever....it's taken care of....stick it in your basement or garage...get on with your life...again a no brainer...donate it to the food bank if everything turns up roses...Shit, it's tax deductible

Or, trust the Federal government will bail YOU out - LOL

Sheeple.

 

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 22:40 | Link to Comment IndicaTive
IndicaTive's picture

<------listened

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 23:25 | Link to Comment kekekekekekeke
kekekekekekeke's picture

tell me where to buy please

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 00:35 | Link to Comment UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

I can get 15 years of storable food for $50????  Sign me up.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 01:11 | Link to Comment FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

I'd like to get in on the 15 years of JD.

 

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 23:27 | Link to Comment kekekekekekeke
kekekekekekeke's picture

http://www.divacup.com/ might be the future

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:56 | Link to Comment PicassoInActions
PicassoInActions's picture

There will be no oil cost more than 150... no matter how much BS they sale to us.

There will be something to stop it or millitary actions. At this economy oil at 150+ is suicide and they will stop all tradings if it will be aproaching this price.

Oil companies don't buy the oil at market prices anyway. So stoping paper shuffle won't be the problem.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:49 | Link to Comment oddjob
oddjob's picture

1 barrel has the equivalent energy of 23,000+ man hours of work. When used for food production $1000/barrel is still cheap.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:53 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Numerous means of artificial oil creation become economical at that point.

No, fuel does not need to have positive EROEI, it needs to be energy dense and easy to move and subdivide.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:23 | Link to Comment oddjob
Thu, 01/05/2012 - 22:36 | Link to Comment trav7777
trav7777's picture

No, they don't become economical at that point, idiot, because you can't print oil.

Energy resources are economical at EROI>1. 

You may still call them useful at EROIs below 1, but not economical.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 01:16 | Link to Comment FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

You're stupid and your mother dresses you funny.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:57 | Link to Comment Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Oil hits $150 Obama is done and so is this virtual reallity economy.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:32 | Link to Comment Irelevant
Irelevant's picture

Eventualy oil will be 150$ then 300$ and so on.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 23:15 | Link to Comment jomama
jomama's picture

On a long enough timeline...

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 18:59 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

oh lordie lordie, we just cant let go of the notion of qe3. how many times does the qe3 train fail make it out of the station before people realize its not happening before elections. enough already!! NO QE3!! get a grip people!! the qe3ers are the ones smoking hopium now. 

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:03 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Agreed.  What are we at now...six months of this notion being posited?  

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 23:08 | Link to Comment WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

More than that. Hell, it's been bantered about on this site since well before QE2 even ended.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:20 | Link to Comment blu
blu's picture

QE3 is already on like Donkey Kong, seen in the swap lines into Europe. Nearly every dime of that money will eventually boomerang back into the US markets to buy 10Ys and stocks (yes STALKS) on flight to (relative) safety.

The only thing being debated now is US home-grown QE3. Will they or won't they? I think we're just one massive Euro bank failure w/contagion away from that. If a big Euro bank goes tits-up Bennie will open the domestic QE flood gates so fast it will make your head spin.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:37 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

blu,

. If a big Euro bank goes tits-up Bennie will open the domestic QE flood gates so fast it will make your head spin.

Bro, the FED has them open now, and have had,just under a different name.

Otherwise, the EU would ALL have already gone to the shitter,2-3 mos ago.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:42 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

the fed has not been printing. dollar at 80, and gold down 16 pct from 1900 last year!!! thats not the natural outcome of debasement of the dollar!!!!

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 21:22 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

You're assuming there's still an adequate market for commodity price discovery. To that I can only reply, MFG.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 23:13 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

Come back to me when silver and gold prices on coin dealers' websites are 50 percent higher than comex prices and maybe then we can have this discussion......

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 21:37 | Link to Comment BigJim
BigJim's picture

...and gold down 16 pct from 1900 last year!!! thats not the natural outcome of debasement of the dollar!!!!

No, you disingenuous dork, it's the result of CB and bullion bank naked shorting of the paper market.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 23:08 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

Big Jim, disingenuous? Are you aware of the definition? Please, do tell how i fit neatly into your characterization.....

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 01:37 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

he just did

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 03:14 | Link to Comment I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

dollar at 80?? against what? WTF does that matter against other currencies.....The VALUE of the dollar will collapse overnight one way or another in due time.......The paper gold price has collapsed for first time in 3 years,  in fact the CEF is forming a head and  shoulders (negative),,,,,You may be seeing the beginning of the end......I have no idea where oil and silver will measure against gold in the endgame but this is happening overnight sooooooooooon,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:39 | Link to Comment DosZap
DosZap's picture

^

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:40 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

thats right.  The Fed will suck that back into the US market.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:56 | Link to Comment razorthin
razorthin's picture

No fukking need when they can just fabricate public numbers and continue the stealth money-printing program.

Of course at some point when the face of even the most clueless sheep turns to alabaster, the razor will be erected.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:03 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Fed has to support CMBS as huge wave of 2007 vintage 5-yrs comes due this year on top of balloon loans. Liquidations have been rising for 3 months and issuance has been tanking. 

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:03 | Link to Comment YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

If that idiot keeps printing, even pupu can do well.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 00:38 | Link to Comment UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

I like pipi pupus....

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:09 | Link to Comment DavidPierre
DavidPierre's picture

 

Enter France

The Greek bailout has been pushed off 3 months down the line which is hilarious because they surely don't have enough cash to last this long. Talk about stupidity, this on it's own will bring on a panic to the markets once they figure out that this "kick" misses the can entirely.

Then we have Italy's Unicredit Bank, they sold equity yesterday that "had" to be priced 43% under the current market price in order to sell. Does this tell you anything?

 Of course, we shouldn't forget about Spain either, their real estate market is still in freefall threatening the banks and of course Spain's sovereign credit is being affected. Enter France!

They sold roughly $10 Billion worth of sovereign credit at wider spreads to German bunds and the bid to cover skinnied up bigtime. I thought back in Oct.-Nov. that once France caught the attention of the bond vigilantes that "game over" would be close behind. We will soon see I guess.

France is sitting at 85% which is the highest of the six largest European economies and now beginning to "atract a little attention".

"Attention" is exactly what they do not want and are surely hoping for no more, remember "hope" is the opiat of fools. "Attention" is exactly what they will get. While we are on the subject of big European sovereigns, I would like to remind you of the failed German auction back in Nov. I still believe the was a "warning" or a "shot across their bow" to get with the program or else.

Gemany is the benchmark but they are not immune either!

But hold on a second, France is the next targeted "deadbeat" because of an 85% debt to GDP ratio?

What's up with this? Didn't the U.S. just finish 2011 with a debt to GDP level of just over 100%?

And the "debt" used was only what was "on the books" and didn't even count future obligations or debt associated with the very "rare" occurrence of war?

Only God knows what the real debt to GDP number is. Oh yeah, that's right, the U.S. is the world's reserve currency and we have the ability to "print more" in a pinch so not to worry! 

The U.S. has not yet been "targeted". Well...maybe they have and we just know it because the Fed is in every auction and buying half of the offerings because the market place won't? ...And since there haven't been any "headline failures" of an auction, all must be well? Right? Surely if there were any REAL problems, Gold would be pushing new highs since it is the "canary in the coal mine"? ...Right?

Gold is THE only asset on the planet that is not manipulated...right? We know because the TV tells us so, the governments set ranges for currencies and intervene all the time, they set interest rates and we even know that equities are "helped along" when they need it by the PPT...but NOOOOOOHOOOOO, Gold is not manipulated. Right?

The U.S. is like an uber Houdini with a thousand "left hands" being used to distract from the "right hand". It has been this way for years and years, the problem now is that the "left hand" must actually point at other sovereign countries. Manipulating markets (not Gold though) is no longer enough because "things are so bad" that someone must take the blame. This "blame" has rolled from country to country and is currently being pointed at France as the cannibal chain grows.

What happens when there are no more "countries" left to blame?

What happens when it is determined that all sovereign government bonds suck (except the U.S. of course) and people decide that they want the ONLY AAA rated currency on the planet?

If these investors who have been carefully herded away from ALL currencies on the planet (except the Dollar of course) decide that they really do want some Gold?

Gold...as in the real thing and not pieces of paper representing Gold? What then?

www.lemetropolecafe.com

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:15 | Link to Comment blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

What happens when there are no more "countries" left to blame?

The USA declares the dollar dead and floats a new currency.  The thermonuclear option.  It's the only way to be sure.

Yeah, there'll be widespread destruction, but hey y'all, it's a war.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:36 | Link to Comment bahaar
bahaar's picture

They'll intoduce the new and improved H1N1 virus into circulation--a virus which is very contagious and very fatal.   And then announce there's only limited amounts of vaccine available--enough for only young people and pregnant women.  Lo and behold, no more pension obligations.

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 00:39 | Link to Comment UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

What does it matter if they call it H1N1, H5N1, mouse pox, ebola or anything else.

Result is the same, and, remember, Iran did it.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:13 | Link to Comment xela2200
xela2200's picture

And here are your pair trades: long gold/MBS - short EUR (or USD - we disagree with SocGen that the dollar would benefit from QE3).

Not sure about the Short EUR position neither. Hard to figure out what the lunatics will do tomorrow. I can't figure the logic to their madness any more.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:23 | Link to Comment blu
blu's picture

I can't figure the logic to their madness any more.

Europe: "Yay! We won!!"

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:21 | Link to Comment Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

More jawboning for QE3. ZIRP 4EVR.

I don't see anyway they can announce any QE as a program because politically it's dead on arrival. I think the Fed will continue with their stealth QE 4EVR via swaps which amount to LSAPS of MBS but will never announce as such.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:30 | Link to Comment Killer the Buzzard
Killer the Buzzard's picture

Precisely

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:34 | Link to Comment AUD
AUD's picture

one should buy gold. Lots of it as "USD debasement restarts."

The USD is already hopelessly debased, only a ginormous credit bubble keeps it afloat. Just when other governments' pull the plug is more difficult to ascertain.

There's every chance it won't be anytime soon, even to the detriment of those other governments' credit, since at least 1971.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:44 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

The QE-X is going to be substantial.

The dollar swaps for the European banks are in progress.

The ECB is going to do some major bond buying before March, which will only increase the need for swaps.

The FED will be opening the spigot for BAC, Morgan Stanley, and GS; who knows precisely how, as they will want to keep a lot of it in the shadow realm.  And of course, the FED backdoor lending facility for any $ amount needed to the TBTF's at 0.05%.

That's a lot of dollars sloshing about, Ben's "Ctrl $" keystrokes are almost unlimited.

For a time the dollar will ramp as the Euro drops and U.S. bond rates are pushed lower.  At some point the dollar drops and the rates pop as attention is turned to U.S. solvency and debt issues, but not for 8 months to a year.

Silver and Gold, Silver and Gold.

I'm hoping that the PM stocks get the wind back in their sails as well; mine are at extreme oversold conditions right now.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:42 | Link to Comment john39
john39's picture

this all assumes that an engineered collapse will not be used to make dramatic changes the world financial system.  such changes could include drastically reducing the number of players and centralizing power and wealth.  if so, will QE get that done?

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 19:49 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

the EUR is about to smash through Aug 2011 lows.

 

tight.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 22:38 | Link to Comment chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

EUR/USD 127.9

Boom

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:06 | Link to Comment alfred b.
alfred b.'s picture

 

    As the corrupt federal reserve and its european cohorts are about to play their last hand and major bluff, make sure that you're holding PHYSICAL gold and silver...AND also that you have access to it as bank holidays may be on the horizon!!

 

 

   

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:02 | Link to Comment onarga74
onarga74's picture

The QE et al will start before the end of January.  Whopper crack is gonna happen shortly.  Just one of the many clues is the individual investor AA whatever is at 74% bullish. Someone know if that's a record or last time it was that ridiculous in the face of a disappearing currency, sabres in the gulf and whatever else?

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:04 | Link to Comment waterdog
waterdog's picture

Did this post attempt to convince me to more gold in 2012?

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:08 | Link to Comment Arttrader
Arttrader's picture

At $250 oil, look out for coal conversion to gases and liquids, profitable at $35/bbl oil (in today's $'s).  The US has got a crapload of coal and the long-term investment of a plant needs $500mm and assurance of a price floor in oil.  The environmental impact of ozone depleting methane byproducts will be an afterthought at $250.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fischer%E2%80%93Tropsch_process

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:08 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

What's the impact of QE3 + QE4 if Greece or Italy were to default?

BTW, 4=$ on a keyboard.....QE4 is when shit may really hit fan.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:10 | Link to Comment onarga74
onarga74's picture

I don't know about buying gold ahead of a QE 3.  Whatever precipitates the need for the Q will be using GLD as source of funds, margin calls, and the like.  I would short gold right now with all my dough because it's going to fall apart here in a big way shortly. That is more than likely what will cause the QE3. You can buy it later when the dust settles.  It's going to take a long long time to revive this economy. 20-30% or more have a FICO of 219  They can't finance a Snickers.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 23:34 | Link to Comment Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

That's assuming that you can buy it later.

Pickings are pretty damn slim for silver right now- I shudder to think how tight the supply is going to get if the price drops further.  I'm sure gold is in nearly the same boat- but at a 50+:1 ratio, I'm not even looking at available gold.  I do know that I haven't seen gold in the local coin shop for a long time, and the silver keeps leaving without returning.  If it keeps up much longer, I'm going to have to just make my stash lie still, and stop using it in trades.  Doesn't do me much good to trade it away in the interest of building a local monetary sub-system when I can't replenish it.

Don't know about other "bugs," but right now is time to buy and hold metals out of the market.  If you sell, it's likely to be bought by those who intend to keep it, and you may find yourself without a chair when the music stops.  Good luck anyhow- I always envy those who make the big moves and cash in, but I'm too cautious, myself.   Good thing I don't make my living in financials. 

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:14 | Link to Comment BlackSunshine
BlackSunshine's picture

Question: Would it be a good strategy be to run up all the credit cards (buying gold and silver, houses, cars, and boats) and wait for the debasement?

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 22:20 | Link to Comment IndicaTive
IndicaTive's picture

For you? Yes.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 22:30 | Link to Comment Bear
Bear's picture

Only if you can buy at .25% interest like the banks ... credit rates are upwards of 20% ... your timing would have to be great, unless you max out all cards with silver and gold and then just disappear

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 20:14 | Link to Comment Geruda
Geruda's picture

What craziness you are having.   A lapping dog for wallstreet is for certain what the president who is Obama is being since the peoples who have been electing him.

Thu, 01/05/2012 - 21:48 | Link to Comment Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

Precisely!

Fri, 01/06/2012 - 00:41 | Link to Comment UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Cue AKAK....

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