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Complete European Calendar Of Events: May - July

Tyler Durden's picture




 

There are still 3 weeks until the next so very critical Greek elections (which if we are correct, will have an outcome comparable to the first, and not result in the formation of a new government absent Diebold opening a Santorini office), meaning the power vacuum at the very top in Europe will persist, and while the market demands some clarity about something, anything, nothing is likely to be implemented by a Germany which is (rightfully, as unlike the US, Europe does not have the benefit of $16 trillion in inflation buffering shadow banking) concerned by runaway inflation if and when the global central banks announce the next latest and greatest global bailout, which this time will likely by in the $3-5 trillion ballpark. However, none of this will happen before the market plummets as Citi explained last weekend, and Europe has no choice but to act. Luckily, as the events calendar below from Deutsche Bank shows through the end of July there are more than enough events which can go horribly wrong, which ironically, is precisely what the market bulls need to happen for the central-planning regime to once be given the carte blanche to do what it usually does, and believe it can outsmart simple laws of Thermodynamics, regression to the mean, and all those other things central bankers believe they can simply overrule.

May

  • 28 May: Italy auction. Bonds.
  • 29 May: Italy auction. Bills.
  • 31 May: Irish referendum on Euro zone ?‘Fiscal Compact?’. A recent poll published in the Sunday Business Post showed a 6 point increase in support  for ?‘Yes?’ after the first week of formal campaigning by the government. The yes vote was up 6pp to 53% versus a month ago, the no vote down 4pp to 31% and don?’t know down 2pp to 16%. Excluding the ?‘don't knows?’, Yes leads No 63% to 37%. An alternative poll published in the Irish Independent on 17 May similarly showed a 60% Yes vote when the ?‘don?’t know?’ contingent is excluded. However, in that poll the ?‘don?’t knows?’ represented 35% of the total. The average ?‘don?’t know?’ proportion in the opinions polls on the Fiscal Compact since the start of the year is 24%. The question is whether the ?‘don?’t knows?’ swing in favour of the ?‘No?’ camp. In the last 5 opinion polls in the month ahead of the Lisbon Treaty rejection in 2008, the ?‘don?’t knows?’ averaged 31%. Excluding the ?‘don?’t knows?’, ?‘Yes?’ had a lead over ?‘No?’ of 56% to 42%. In the event, the Lisbon Treaty was rejected 47% to 53%. (see ?“Eurostress?” in this issue of Focus Europe).

June

  • 6 June: ECB Governing Council meeting, followed
    by interest rate announcement and news conference.
  • 6-June: European Commission proposed Directive on crisis management/bank resolution. The EC is due to present proposals for a bank crisis resolution scheme, potentially including plans for creditor write- downs, before the G20 leaders?’ summit on 18-19 June. The proposals being worked on have been reported not to directly involve the euro zone?’s EFSF and ESM funds.
  • 6 June: Portugal auction. Bills.
  • 7 June: Spain auction. Bonds.
  • 10 June: French legislative election (first round). Elections to entirely renew the deputies in the National Assembly (lower house of parliament). A risk is that the socialist party alone fails to secure an absolute majority and has to depend on the support of the radical left, which could push to try to transform what we hold
    for pure campaign rhetoric in actual legislation. However, it would be
    wrong to simply replicate Melanchon?’s score in the first round of the
    presidential election into the number of deputies the radical left would
    secure, as the ?“personal factor?” was important in Melanchon?’s strong
    performance and as the ?“two rounds?” majority system of the
    parliamentary election should favour the socialists.
  • 12 June: Greece auction. Bills.
  • 13 June: New timeline for ratifying ESM and Fiscal Compact in Germany. German government and opposition will decide on the final timeline for ratification of ESM and Fiscal Compact. In return for their support to approve the Fiscal Treaty (two-third majority in the Bundestag required), the opposition (SPD and Greens) want to see a broad growth initiative for the euro area. Meanwhile, the opposition has indicated that the elements of a growth strategy discussed at the informal EU dinner on Wednesday will satisfy their demands in this regard (in their statement the SPD joined Chancellor Merkel in rejecting Eurobonds at this point in time). The crucial issue remains the opposition's call for concrete steps to introduce a financial transaction tax which is supported by the ruling coalition in principle but cannot be realised at short notice. Moreover, the second chamber - representing the German states - has to approve the legislative pieces with two-third majority also. There, the states face budgetary problems in implementing the budget rules of the Fiscal Compact until 2014 (stricter than the German debt brake so far) and demand financial support from the federal level to comply with them - which is likely to be granted in some form. Government and opposition will convene again on June 13 to decide on the final timing for the legislative process. The ESM should be ratified in time for the July 1st deadline to allow its entering into force but the ratification of the Fiscal Treaty might well slip into July.
  • 13 June: SPD and CDU meeting. According to Bloomberg on 13 June the CDU and SPD will discuss the idea of the so-called European Redemption Fund put forward by the ?‘German Council of Economic Experts?’ ?
  • 13 June: Italy auction. Bills.
  • 14 June: Italy auction. Bonds 17 June: French legislative election (second round) See 10 June entry.
  • 17 June: Greek elections. A repeat of the national elections in Greece was called by the President after the three largest parties from the initial election on 6 May (New Democracy, SYRIZA and PASOK) were each in turn unsuccessful in forming a coalition and talks between all party leaders failed to produce a unity government. An emergency government led by the senior judge Panagotis Pikrammenos has been tasked with taking Greece through to the new election. Some polls showed a sharp rise in support for the anti-bailout SYRIZA, while others showed a stronger backing for New Democracy (see ?“A Containment Strategy?” in this issue of Focus Europe for further details).
  • 18-19 June: G20 Leaders Summit, in Los Cabos, Mexico. Gathering of the leaders of the world?’s twenty biggest economies. European Commission?’s plan to resolve failed European banks among the issued to be discussed (see the entry above).
  • 19 June: German Constitutional Court ruling The German Constitutional Court will deliver its ruling on the information obligations of the German government to the parliament in the context of ESM and Euro-Plus Pact. The opposition Green Party claims that the government has failed to inform parliament "comprehensively and at the earliest possible time" and to consult parliament on the negotiations and EU-level decisions concerning ESM and the Euro-Plus Pact. The dispute is partly procedural in nature as there is a legal basis for information obligation by the government in matters concerning European Union affairs. ESM and Euro- Plus Pact, however, have been treated as intergovernmental decisions not covered by this legal act. The claimants want to see the formal information obligations also extended to decisions with an intergovernmental character. Since the Constitutional Court has followed the line of strengthening parliament's role in euro crisis management it might well rule in favour of the Greens. The material impact on the German decision-making process should be marginal.
  • 19 June: Spain auction. Bills.
  • 19 June: Greece auction. Bills.
  • 21 June: Spain auction. Bonds.
  • 21 June: Eurogroup finance ministers meetings.
  • 26 June: Spain auction. Bills.
  • 26 June: Italy auction. Bonds
  • 27 June: Italy auction. Bills.
  • 28 June: Italy auction. Bonds.
  • 28-29 June: European Council meeting. This is the quarterly summit meeting of the EU heads of state and government. This may be when a ?“growth compact?” to complement the Fiscal Compact crystallises.

July

  • 5 July: ECB Governing Council meeting, followed by interest rate announcement and news conference.
  • 5 July: Spain auction. Bonds.
  • 12 July: Italy auction. Bills.
  • 13 July: Italy auction. Bonds.
  • 17 July: Spain auction. Bills.
  • 19 July: Spain auction. Bonds.
  • 24 July: Spain auction. Bills.
  • 25 July: ECB lending survey. The ECB are due to publish their third lending survey of the year on Wednesday 25 July. The survey could provide the ECB with a key piece of evidence to justify additional 3Y LTROs ?— if lending standards tighten again, another liquidity push may be necessary to avert a harsher credit crunch. The ECB will publish one more lending survey this year on 31 October.
  • 26 July: Italy auction. Bonds.
  • 27 July: Italy auction. Bills.
  • 30 July: Italy auction. Bonds.

Source: Deutsche

 

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Sun, 05/27/2012 - 15:46 | 2467519 Rahm
Rahm's picture

June 6th shall be interesting.  D-Day indeed!

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 20:44 | 2468134 hoos bin pharteen
hoos bin pharteen's picture

Don't forget Bilderberg - May 28-Jun 3.

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 15:47 | 2467521 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Its amazing to see that the sort of America lies in the hands of others; Eurozone, china, japan, Iran you name it.

An empire that is now so indebted, walking on eggs,  a butterfly flies somewhere in the world and it starts a tsunami in WS. Awesome change of world values since 2008... what was center stage is now in outer space. 

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 15:56 | 2467542 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Pssst... Lots of efforts Are Being Made To Distract From The Real Problems. ;-)

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 16:31 | 2467583 Curtis LeMay
Curtis LeMay's picture

God are you guys either jealous or clueless...

The USD is...the USD.

It lives in a world no basic economist can even begin to fathom.

Wait us out. Go for it. See what happens...

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 16:38 | 2467596 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Don't get me wrong, I do hope the center holds.
I just can't develop any anxiety about the eu or asian flanks, at the moment.

Forbidding the WMD-derivatives, for example, would make me SURE that the center will hold or just fall back a step or two.

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 16:48 | 2467610 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Pull your head out of your rear end.

The US$ is being ditched by everyone with bi lateral

trade deals.

Just wait ,next up Chna and Saudi Arabia.

Notice whose funding and building their new refinery complex.

Hows that being paid for do you think ?

WWIII or the $ is toast.

WWIII and the $ is toast.

How do you like your toast ?

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 18:01 | 2467751 theTribster
theTribster's picture

That's right. Many bilateral trade deals are already in place just not formally recognized or disgussed. A few months ago I thought the dollar being removed as the world's reserve currency would be the cause of the meltdown but then I started thinking Europe would actually be the reason. Now, there are so many loose tenticles of destruction it's likely to be a combination of major events happening more or less simultaneously that create the financial meltdown.

WW-III is coming because that's the way it works, especially under these conditions; massive debt that can't be paid back, rise of nationalism across the world, shift in power and control - a re-balancing. From my point of view WWII was just an extension of WWI, during the period in between considerable efforts were spent on war reporations from Germany to the US, France and England. Gold was taken from Germany by the Frence on debts that could never, ever be paid back. After WWII the same conditions existed but America was able to use the odeious debt clause (the US created) to eliminate much of the debts owed by the Germany. We also ended up forgiving many of the European countries as well. The power shift had occured post WWII.

We are looking at such a similar situation in Europe right now, even the increase in nationalism is made obvious by the French, Greek and German recent elections. Most European Parliaments have extremists now holding seats, for many this is a new experience and will almost certainly cause some additional Government tension and ineffectiveness. The whole of Europe is harkening back to ancient fears and beliefs about each other, this can't be good. I've seen Greek newspapers with a picture of Merkel all dolled up in SS clothing with a giant swasitka on her boot (while stepping on the Parthenon). This has all been said and done before, the more things change the more they stay the same! So true.

The OPEC countries are bound to sign deals with the BRICS nations that allow using direct currency translation eliminating the dollar all together. India has already done this with Iran for its oil purchases, India is using Gold apparently. I still think the BRICS are going to release a gold backed currency that must be used to execute trades with them, it would be a brilliant move with absolutely no downside risk (well, except for the US military maybe). This bank would fund itself by depositing Gold (probably Switzerland) to create and grow the currency. Additionally, trading partners would need to deposit Gold to get the currency and complete the transaction for any good or services purchased. Again, growing the currency quickly and forcing everyone to use it, including the US.

It should be another crazy week here and abroad. China, Australia, Europe, things are crazy everywhere. Something will be done this week to eliminate (reduce) the fear of bank runs, I've read that insurance will be used like the FDIC but how does that work for a devaluation or worse, a new (old) currency that is being devalued? I guess will wait and see, might they miss the mark completely and come up with a solution that doesn't really address the problem? Definitely possible, a bunch of arrogant unelected  pinheads are running the place - Van Rompoy is a crazy looking dude that I wouldn't turn my back on for a second! As Nigel Farage says: "Who are you?", "I've never heard of you", "Nobody's ever heard of you"...classic.

The dollar will continue to gain strength as long as there is no QE and Europe continues down the current path. At some point there will be some positive news that will pop the Euro big-time, a massive short squeeze is setting (is set) up and it will likely be devestating as everyone runs for the exits. It probably won't take much to set it off and depending on how the US reacts we are likely to see the dollar back to its old ways, if not I'm pretty sure the Fed will help it out by dumping trillions of USD and buying trillions of Euros. I'm a little surprised they let it run as far as it has, this is definitely not what they want.

Both currencies are going to shit the bed, the question is which one reaches the bottom first, right now it seems like the Euro but the race isn't over yet we still have several more months of this pain and suffering. I think the dollar might take the lead to the bottom based on the JP Morgan thing, I have a sneaky suspicion that the trade(s) are going to add up to 10s of billions and not just 3-5. That will cause the shit to hit the fan on the whole banking system and maybe even cause JP Morgan to be broken up into smaller pieces.

Right now I'm short Europe and long the dollar, I expect to reverse these positions as early as this week depending on how events play out. I may take a small position in the Euro in anticipation of an announcement of some type and a subsequent squeeze, pretty sure they'll be announcing something this week - they can't let things go own without some type of intervention. I'm thinking we only have a couple more months of this left before things meltdown, this means having all money out of the system before that happens - that's the most important call - when to get out completely!We won't get as much time as the Europeans have gotten, our meltdown will be much swifter in a relative sense - days? weeks maybe?

Get out the popcorn and keep on stacking.

 

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 19:11 | 2467915 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

I disagree. You get enough slack in commodity demand and the AUD, CAD and LatAm curriencies will get absolutely clobbered.

US monetary stimulus is overrated. Commodities moved primarily on a Chinese credit / infrasructure bubble along with a worldwide restocking of inventory. Good luck trying to get a similiar coordinated response this time around.

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 18:56 | 2467882 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Betting against the USD right now is like stepping in front of a bus.

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 17:06 | 2467634 falak pema
falak pema's picture

your avatar says it all, to the point of extreme caricature, its message being clearer than the Fog of war; the love of the greenback is stronger than the love of life, liberty and the pursuit of...you have perfectly summed up the mindset of your own civilization trend. 

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 15:53 | 2467534 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

To the FAZmobile?  Buy cheap FAZ calls every month until they hit?

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 16:00 | 2467550 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

the Full Monty, and nothing more...

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 16:04 | 2467553 chockl
chockl's picture

Look around you.See who,what,controls the world.

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 16:26 | 2467578 vft2212
vft2212's picture

They forgot June 4 LUNAR ECLIPSE

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 16:31 | 2467585 Vegetius
Vegetius's picture

All Euroland has to look forward to is -

 

"The bitter dregs of Fortune's cup to drain". Homer

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 16:41 | 2467601 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Did you forget the Second Round French Assembly Elections on 17. June being same day as Greek Elections

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 16:43 | 2467604 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

I don't see "Total Implosion" on there anywhere.

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 16:54 | 2467614 Barry McBear
Barry McBear's picture

They forgot the euro zone's only hope:

20 June: FOMC Meeting and Helicopter Ben Press Conference

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 16:54 | 2467615 hyper-critical
hyper-critical's picture

Try not to get too thrown off the scent. The real action may jsut be brewing in Asia...

 

Not that what's going on in Europe won't have a huge impact on markets, but a cheeky currency crisis seems to be brewing in China. There's a 'short mbs' '08-type trade out there somewhere. Still working on what that might be

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 17:03 | 2467624 Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

I expect the EU to announce a suspension of payments both to and "due" because of a non-functioning government.

Throw the "hot potato" back to Greece and let them demonstrate the ability to do anything.

Will save on the paper work.

The IMF has moved on........

 

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 17:07 | 2467635 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Greece appears to be circling the drain...

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 17:11 | 2467643 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

We have the Case Shiller index coming out Tuesday which will show a light increase in house prices.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/05/27/case-shiller-house-pr...

Zillow, FNC and FHFA have already come out and showed the same uptick. Watch for Wall Street to overreact to CS IF it upticks.

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 17:59 | 2467743 LMAO
LMAO's picture

Calendar take-away: "Austerity hitting home?"

That is one serious cutback on the amount of meetings in the midst of this shitstorm. . . . or is this seasonally adjusted?

Sun, 05/27/2012 - 23:33 | 2468420 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

The day All Hell Breaks Loose needs to be on the calendar. My guess is that day will be before the Greek elections on June 17, as tensions and uncertainty reach a breaking point, and as it becomes apparent to everyone that no matter what the outcome of the Greek elections, the Euro system, however well-intentioned, is now an unsustainable and failed experiment.

Wed, 05/30/2012 - 08:52 | 2474935 boa74520
boa74520's picture

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Sat, 08/11/2012 - 01:57 | 2696494 fjfj
fjfj's picture

 

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http://virtlantis.com/archive/archive/pg/blog/read/379472/earphones-and-applications-of-headsets-based-on-your-lifestyle-presently
http://virtlantis.com/archive/archive/pg/blog/read/379474/earbuds-and-purposes-of-headset-according-to-your-way-of-life-in-these-days
http://virtlantis.com/archive/archive/pg/blog/read/379475/greatest-farming-place-advice-and-miracle-farming-set
?
http://ekhx.com/greatest-farming-place-advice-and-miracle-farming-set/
http://www.etrafficlane.com/moreanswers/greatest-farming-place-advice-and-miracle-farming-set/
http://greekrpg.net/blog/2012/08/beats-by-dr-dre/
http://www.palchateo.com/web/entry.php?13152-Diablo-3-Gold
http://www.qmarkets1.org/live/baltimore/subdomain/sigal-arielys-blog/end/node/736
http://www.indianahighschoolgolf.com/index.php?option=com_fireboard&Itemid=32&func=view&catid=9&id=22823#22823
http://www.indianahighschoolgolf.com/index.php?option=com_fireboard&Itemid=32&func=view&catid=11&id=22827#22827
http://benefitslink.com/boards/index.php?showtopic=51866
http://benefitslink.com/boards/index.php?showtopic=51867
http://www.etyc.org/forum/sujet/10275-monster-beats.html
http://www.etyc.org/forum/sujet/10276-diablo-3-gold.html
http://marginalialab.com/forum/topic/beats-by-dre-3?replies=1#post-18306
http://marginalialab.com/forum/topic/diablo-3-gold-2?replies=1#post-18309
http://avillar.org/forum-theme/930
http://avillar.org/forum-theme/931
http://www.atlas-gaming.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=50624.0
http://www.atlas-gaming.co.uk/forum/index.php?topic=50636.0
http://truthaboutamsterdam.com/wordpress/forum/cultural/monster-beats-5/#p14334
http://truthaboutamsterdam.com/wordpress/forum/cultural/diablo-3-gold-3/#p14335
http://forum.jamesgunn.com/viewtopic.php?f=98&t=3776
http://forum.jamesgunn.com/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=3777
http://www.musicone.fm/content/thread/monster-beats-4
http://www.musicone.fm/content/thread/diablo-3-gold-4
http://syrianstudents.fr/fr/node/3561
http://syrianstudents.fr/fr/node/3566
http://womenbloom.com/forums/Job/Beats-by-Dre.html#8553
http://womenbloom.com/forums/Fashion/Beauty/Diablo-3-Gold.html#8555
http://www.ofwme.com/forum/posts/id_36332/
http://www.ofwme.com/forum/posts/id_36333/
http://www.ivoirebusiness.net/?q=node/15352
http://www.ivoirebusiness.net/?q=node/15354
http://www.esportnova.com/index.php?option=com_fireboard&Itemid=191&func=view&catid=9&id=17458#17458
http://www.esportnova.com/index.php?option=com_fireboard&Itemid=191&func=view&catid=5&id=17459#17459
http://www.epapercentral.com/forums/general-discussion/monster-beats-studio/
http://www.epapercentral.com/forums/e-paper-developers-and-manufacturers/microsoft/page/2/
?
http://www.enterprisingschools.com/discussions/business-models-sustainability/diablo-3-gold
http://www.chinesebiblestudy.org/?q=node/454
http://www.busanhaps.com/forum/diablo-3-gold
http://www.irishjetskis.com/index.php/Going-Jetskiing-Let-us-know-/3402-Diablo-3-Gold.html#3402
http://www.irishjetskis.com/index.php/Jetski-Ireland-Club/3403-Beats-by-Dre.html#3403
http://www.laketomahawkwi.org/?q=node/2765
http://www.nnslawg.com/node/433#comment-2374
http://brawna.org/stories/modern-amazon-part-2#comment-5045
http://www.qmarkets1.org/live/baltimore/subdomain/sigal-arielys-blog/end/node/717#comment-267
http://www.qmarkets1.org/live/baltimore/subdomain/sigal-arielys-blog/end/node/683#comment-268
http://www.siamrath.co.th/web/?q=%E0%B8%88%E0%B8%B1%E0%B8%9A%E0%B8%8A%E0%B8%B5%E0%B8%9E%E0%B8%88%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%9B%E0%B8%A3%E0%B8%B0%E0%B9%80%E0%B8%97%E0%B8%A8%E0%B9%84%E0%B8%97%E0%B8%A2talk-130555&page=1
http://www.ultimatefilmfest.com/node/715#comment-163
http://arclaw.org/about-us/people/peter-w-adler
http://www.afrignome.org/content/who-you-messing#comment-31019
http://www.fitness-health-wellness.com/blog/vacation-how-your-health-may-be-risk#comment-3583
http://www.fitness-health-wellness.com/blog/hoarding-5-health-consequences#comment-3584
http://wouldyoulikefrieswiththat.net/potpourri/content-submission-suspended-until-further-notice#comment-1288
http://www.busanhaps.com/subscribe#comment-13355
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/overnight-sentiment-lows#comment-2693382
http://arclaw.org/newsletter/vol-9/no-1/memorial/rest-peace-john-sawkey
http://www.enterprisingschools.com/discussions/quality-education-learning/ray-ban-sunglasses-sale#comment-108251
http://www.enterprisingschools.com/discussions/school-assessment/louis-vuitton-belts#comment-108253
http://www.hypoactive.org/content/hypoactive-and-team-type-1-come-ballarat#comment-5137
http://community.create-your-style.com/design/view/32015#comment-29428
http://wouldyoulikefrieswiththat.net/gaming/mario-say-hello-my-little-friend-0#comment-1289
http://www.sleazybars.com/content/positive-vibrations#comment-3044
http://www.dramabookshop.com/storepicks#comment-8039
http://brawna.org/stories/armwrestling-match-ff#comment-5046
http://www.leslielaweventing.com/node/97#comment-153965
http://www.chinesebiblestudy.org/?q=node/56#comment-1485
http://www.thebellebrigade.com/press/rolling-stone#comment-16791

 

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