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Complete European Sovereign Issuance Calendar
Earlier in the week, we discussed at length the funding gaps that various European sovereign nations face as the gap between supply and coupon/redemptions can't be assumed to be rolled away (and Europe faces EUR43.5bn of net cash-flow surplus from sovereigns into the 'market'). In order to better comprehend the timeline, Morgan Stanley has published both the complete issuance calendar for European bonds and bills over the next five weeks as well as a breakdown of the flows that are dominated by next week and the first week of February.
Bond Calendar...Thursday 5th January seems important for the French...
Bills...
and the net flows...
and Supply vs Redemptions/Coupons...
It seems the market this week is starting to reprice for this risk in Italy and France not being able to roll so easily (and perhaps front-run that 'cash-flow' into US Treasuries as a haven).
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Cut before the 5th or after that is the question.......
Reality is a B in 2012.
1/13 looks very good for BTP.
Is that a Friday? Must ask Jason.....
Bullish for US equities. Watch the big run-up starting Jan 3. And then an ugly Feb/March. Would not be short going into the weekend.
what's your reasoning for the big run-up?
Bias is up. Its how the system is designed. Selling pressure into year-end, take the tax loss, and invest heavy into Jan. This barring any significant geo-political events which can always shock markets. There are many opportunities at multi-year lows.
so you are saying because it's jan, where people start reinvesting their money after the tax loss (and what loss? spy is almost breaking even) , stock market would go up? i find this statement to be a bit unrealistic to be honest because the problems around the globe still exist and solution isn't imminent
What do you mean by "many opportunities at multi-year lows"? i dont think you can compare 2009 and beyond with 2007 or 2008...
Just watch next week and you'll see. The indices were "even" in 2011 because a handful of large-cap equities kept them afloat. Many small and mid-cap were destroyed and that's where to look. Overall it was a lousy year for most.
Opportunities abound in every sector. Start with financials, then industrials, then materials, even some MOMO.
BAC, MS, JEF, FCX, AKS, MT, MCP, ACI, ANR, JRCC, ECA, SU, KWK, MDR, IPI, MOS, and even FSLR, RIMM, GMCR...
Most of those will be cut in half by March starting in Jan, probably early Jan.
Here's to hoping MS gets cut in half by March
A couple of weeks later after deflation, hyperinflation will meet deflation at the shit fan.
BTFD!
Nope, that won't happen inj two weeks span. Maybe two years. Yes, BTFD. Wow- if you like paper, just look at AGQ. Nearly everything points toward more easing on a global scale. USD may strengthen but it will be short lived.
will dollar goes down or up and specialy vs YEN?
Let's see if the banks buy the Italian and PIG junk bonds.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2011/12/30/2011-a-year-in-review...
How am I supposed to help my friends in the original banana republics raise investment capital, when Europeans have so much and so diverse opportunities to "invest" in banana republic moonshot/crapshoot financing right here at home?
Am I reading this right or the US is selling 455 billion in debt in January? Seems to me that's a shitload...
front run to the back of the line please,...
come again
What about WW3 to save Europe? Russia sending their only aircraft carrier off Syria to avoid a NATO attack.
http://rt.com/news/line/2011-12-30/#id24293
Russian warships heading for Cyprus, Tunisia and SyriaA flotilla of Russian warships will undertake a tour of the Mediterranean in January, taking in Limassol in Cyprus, Tartus in Syria and Sfax in Tunisia. The group will dock at Tartus, a Russian naval base, around January 6. The heavy aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov will be the only ship out of the group not to dock at any international ports, including the Syrian one, a source in Russia’s Defense Ministry told Itar-tass news agency.
Standard and Poors remember....
there wont be a second chance.....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15686580
this time is not a mistake...
"FRANCE IS AA not TRIPLE AAA"
*Now all Big guys doesnt hold more French bonds, just the retailers... (this is how the game goes) ...
Let the big money be saved from the downgrade, let the people crash....
Nice...
Soverign and corporate debt roll for next year is over a trillion and with no one trusting anyone who is buying? The Bernak best put a super charger on the old printing press cause he's going to be busy. It appears from recent events the Fed is the printer of choice for the world.
Personally I think today ending down is negative for the start of the New Year. And I'm not a perma bear. I play both sides of the market.
But we are near the trading range high and I don't see the flows that will break us out to the upside. The bulls tried their best to force us to close up for the year. But their fire power fell short starting 3 days ago. I thought they might ram us past 1,300 and towards 1,350. But they failed at resistance AGAIN.
Not sure if we just go back to test 1,100 or if we finally break to the downside. Personally I won't look to buy till 1,000 (20% correction).
S&P downgrade is a big deal. Everyone knows it's coming, but no one knows the repercussions to bank markdowns, collateral requirements, investment guidelines. And we saw today that the bank freeze us hurting the real economy with Petro Plus announcement.
Their is a chance that we get a few days of buying as managers come back from Vaca and try to refresh their portfolio for the new year, but I'n my experience this is usually done before x-mas.
But the next major move is to test 1,100 on SPX and 1.2 on EUR. Further weakness in commodities too.
My favorite chart is the back page of the economist showing EVERY mkt I'm the world down 20-40% and the US flat. We arent decoupling, we are on a 6 month delay.
Below 1,000 things are interesting. But at that point well have EUR near parity, DAX below 5,000 and gold at SPX parity. Lots of opportunity then for a real secular bull.
RoadKill: I have the table of equities for 2011 here:
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2011/12/30/2011-a-year-in-review...
Sheesh! Either the US was the Bomb Shelter for the world (both equities AND Treasuries) ... Or the rest of world is correct and we are ... bubbled!