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Complete List Of European Sovereign Events Through The End Of 2011
We won't focus too much on the reasons why Deutsche Bank just cut its forecast for European 2012 GDP from +0.4% to -0.5%: needless to say it is yet another ploy to force the ECB's hand to print, and not even DB is ashamed to admit it: "The good news is that the worse the economic outlook becomes, the more likely it is the ECB will have to take more aggressive steps to deal with a compromised monetary transmission mechanism and the growing downside risks to price stability." So now that that is out of the way (and those who wish to read the whole thing can do so here), we can focus on what is actually relevant: the full event calendar from tomorrow until the end of the year, not only for sovereign bond issuance (there is plenty), but for all major sovereign events.
So for those who collect forward calendars of catalytic events, here is the definitive one through the end of the year to print and put up on the wall.
29 November: German Constitutional Court to rule on EFSF amendment law. Several weeks ago the Constitutional Court imposed a temporary injunction on Germany’s EFSF amendment law, overruling the government’s proposed 9-person parliamentary committee for taking rapid action decisions on EFSF deployment. If this ruling is upheld, the government will have to table an amendment and vote it through. We view this as technical only and do not anticipate problems. The 41-person parliamentary budget committees will make the decisions instead. This will be slightly less efficient.
29 November: Italy auction. Bonds.
29 November: Belgium auction. Bills.
29 November: Portuguese Budget. The final vote on the 2012 budget is due in parliament.
29-30 November: Eurogroup/ECOFIN Finance Ministers meetings. As of now, this is the last scheduled EU finance ministers meeting of 2011. On the formal agenda are bank capital requirements and the 9 December European Council meeting, specifically as regards economic policy.
December
December (tbd): New Greek loan programme to be approved. The 26 October statement from the European Council (heads of state) claimed the new loan programme would be approved by the end of the year and the bond exchange would take place at the beginning of 2012.
1 December: Draghi at European Parliament. ECB President Mario Draghi will present the 2010 ECB Annual Report to the European Parliament. This will be an opportunity to listen to the new ECB President’s views on the crisis, its resolution and the role the ECB can play.
1 December: Greek strike. The ADEDY and GSEE union bodies will hold the latest 24-hour strike against austerity measures.
1 December: Spain auction. Bonds.
1 December: France auction. Bonds.
2 December: Anglo-French summit. French President Sarkozy and British PM Cameron to hold annual summit meeting.
3 December: Greek budget. Discussion of 2012 Budget in parliament.
4 December: Slovenian parliamentary elections. After the defeat of the centre-left coalition, led by the Social Democrats (SD), in a confidence vote in September, opinion polls indicate a race between the centre-right Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS), under the previous PM Janez Jansa, and two new parties: a centre-left party led by the mayor of Ljubljana, and a centrist party (Citizens' List) led by Gregor Virant, a former SDS minister of public administration. Virant who turns out second after SDS in most polls suffered a setback this week. It became public that he received unemployment compensation available to former ministers in the year after his term, despite earning a substantial income from consulting and lecturing. Although he redeemed extra payments immediately and legal consequences seem unlikely, his party may lose ground and put SDS in a clear lead. Election campaigns are dominated by domestic issues as Slovenia faces pressing structural reforms and a very weak recovery. High corporate indebtedness and sluggish growth weigh on the domestic banking sector. After recording a loss of EUR 113.9 m during the first 9 months of 2011 the largest domestic bank is heading for a third year of losses. It is under pressure to raise fresh capital and aims to collect EUR 400 m until early 2012. If private sources remain closed it may have to resort to the government which already holds a 45% share in the bank. Despite a general public sentiment opposing bail-outs in Europe, the country's weakness make open political opposition to closer European corporation unlikely
5 December: France auction. Bills.
6 December: Ireland’s 2012 Budget to be presented in parliament. The prior planned EUR3.6bn adjustment has increased to EUR3.8bn according to recent press reports, including a 2% increase in the standard VAT rate to 2%, a flat rate EUR100 household levy, but no income tax hikes. Revenue increases would yield EUR1.6bn. The majority of the fiscal manoeuvre will come from spending cuts.
7 December: Greek budget. Vote on 2012 Budget.
7-8 December: EU conservative party leaders meeting. Sarkozy, Merkel as well as the heads of Finland and Ireland, among others, will attend.
7 December: Portugal auction. Bills.
8 December: ECB Governing Council meeting. We expect the next rate cut to 1.0% to come in January, but the risk of back-to-back cuts, with the second cut in December already, cannot be ruled out given the speed at which the data flow is deteriorating. Updated staff macroeconomic projections will be published, including 2013 numbers for the first time.
9 December: European Council summit. The EU leaders will be due to hold their final scheduled summit meeting of 2011. EU President Herman Van Rompuy is expected to deliver proposals on limited EU Treaty change. These changes will most likely address Economic Policy Coordination (Articles 120 to 126 TFEU). One key element could be a closer monitoring of national fiscal policies by the European Commission.
12 December: Italy auction. Bills.
12 December: France auction. Bills.
13 December: Spanish parliament reconvenes.
13 December: Greece auction. Bills.
13 December: Spain auction. Bills.
14 December: Italy auction. Bonds.
14 December: Spain auction. Bonds.
15 December: France auction. Bonds.
20 December: Greece auction. Bills.
20 December: ECB longer term refinancing operations (LTROs) announcement date. This is the second of the two LTROs announced by the ECB on 6 October, this will have a maturity of approximately 13 months, to be conducted in December 2011. The allotment date is 21 December. The operations will be conducted as fixed rate tender procedures with full allotment.
21 December: Portugal auction. Bills.
24 December: Spain auction. Bills.
27 December: France auction. Bills.
28 December: Italy auction. Bills.
29 December: Italy auction. Bonds.
19-31 December: Greek redemptions. E8.1bn of Greek government debts are due with E5.2bn consisting of a 3-year, zero-coupon special bond issued by the Hellenic Republic to support the liquidity of Greek banks (Law 3723/2008) in Dec 2008 (lending facility to draw liquidity from the ECB). These securities are not payable by the Greek state hence not include in public debt (or PSI v1). Therefore the true financing need from bond redemptions is E2.8bn (E8.1bn less E5.2bn).
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In other words, what days to buy gold.
Should probably note in article that given Spain have pulled out of their new 3y bond auction for 01-Dec, there will not be any new EZ sovereign issuance this year. The German bond auction last Wed was the last.
All the rest of the sovereign bond events are taps of existing bonds or bills. Since these tend to get a decent amount of dealer and domestic support, I wouldn't expect much fireworks other than incremental cost increases.
Of course, if they do blow up then, yes we are not only up the creek without a paddle but another gaping hole just appeared!
Today, 29th Nov, is also the day of the Autumn Statement (Pre-Budget Report) in the UK.
This used to be a fairly minor affair but over the last 5 years or so it has greatly increased in importance until now it is virtually a second budget for the UK.
Expect bad news coming from the UK today, papered over by plenty of spin and red herrings (apologies for mixed metaphors)
"The Chancellor surely doesn't get stage fright anymore - but there is one part of today's speech which he is really, really dreading, says Faisal Islam, Channel 4's economics editor: reading out the OBR's forecasts for growth and borrowing.
The Chancellor will have to read out the independent Office of Budget Responsibility’s borrowing projections. It will be the most unwelcome piece of independent advice since Thomas Becket’s suggestions to Henry II.
Even the collapse in growth prospects will pale compared to the fiscal bloodbath that is coming. Only the PBR (Pre-Budget Report) of August 2008 will rival the extra red ink deposited by the Treasury printers. "
For that decision, my criteria lately has been whether or not I've got enough bernanks in my pocket.
if you put this catalytic calendar list on your wall, try not to throw the stock-picking darts into it!
Thank You Zero Hedge. This is the VIP list of future market manipulation.
Just paste and copy this shit.
Good news for people who like bad news, bitchez
Will everyone be dead before the ship even sinks, bitchez? ;-)
i'm only happy when it rains...and brother, it's a rainin'.
End game bitchez.
libertarian86.blogspot.com
Someone please explain to me (I'm slow, but by God I'm pretty) why massive global printing at this point in the cycle - with inflation of commodities, deflation of many hard assets and rampant unemployment is S&P bullish? How have corporate margins not peaked? Most of these companies have cut the bottom line to the bone, fired everyone they could. Where's the top line growth going to come from? Just how much would the fed have to out print the EU to keep the dollar weak? Hyperinflation of commodities is the only result right?
Keynseians and central bankers only know how to do one thing...print. I loves me some Krugman, baby.
look on the bright side:
http://www.bloomberg.com/slideshow/2011-11-28/breath-taking-25-most-beau...
They missed the giant BS cloud over Washington DC...
Not getting hit by a truck is bullish right now. ZIRP, QE, and Austerity is the projected path until things either implode or stabilize. The class of 2020 will pay $25/gallon, but hey.
If I sit on my ass as a broker doing nothing, pulling the money of my clients out of the marke for security reasons I might get on the 5th day doing so.. So, trade as long as the carrousel turns around, even so, when too much acceleration might take me down from the Pony and smashes me into the next dustpin.
Save the link for the live stream..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-0tVSV7AkU&feature=related
... Greece auction. Bills. Spain auction. Bills. Italy auction. Bonds. Spain auction. Bonds. France auction. Bonds. Greece auction. Bills...
...Brother, can you spare a dime...Brother, can you spare a dime...Brother, can you spare a dime...Brother, can you spare a dime...Brother, can you spare a dime...Brother, can you spare a dime...
It'd be sad if it wasn't so laughable.
Futures pull even!!!
God I love this rigged shit. I mean the fucking audacity is just off the chart.
Sovereign this, diks!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJW7-gvruic
What part of the World is Bankrupt did we miss?
Was there an effing test, or what?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZfVJSLC3lO8
hahaha chaos. Looks like markets aint going any higher end yr. C'mon just two more days of rallies...then you short this mutha
The private bankers edition of this European calendar features a photo spread of Angela. My favorite photo is Angela, dressed as Mrs Claus, tossing a lump of coal to Sarkozy.
Jesus H. Christ....Drew Brees is nasty.
Link, please. Nasty ist gut.
Just turn the game on man. He's en FUEGO! ESPN...what the hell else would you be doing?
Your hint at the obvious is not lost. I get it.
Europe's failure=Drew Brees' dominance
Graham is a beast by the way
Fukking EUR is up 16 pips.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=djg0j_ye28A
+1 for the Blondie song.
don't stress it there will be a thin liquidity meltup, end year attempt. It will fail. Some topped out ranges will start to kick in. As for the EUR. Investment banks are locking in 1.20 ranges
I don't stress. I have Xanax.
i'll smoke stress, times are tough...
Curious. I didn't see "default" anywhere on the list.
It's right there under your ass...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cETrNUB9Aog
5 long years he wore this watch up his ass..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9aBAMnIUi8Y
When you print the list, you're supposed to use paper that is watermarked with ginormous diagonal letters, "DEFAULT!".
For Fed Lovers only:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9KTatq6lReA&feature=related
And for the rest of us:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QY1MOxcvtM
Anyone got a working list of US exchange listed European bank stocks? Or US and Canadian banks with EU exposures beyond the obvious BAC MS GS etc?
Right here...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whXeb7Ohfkk
Ins't it nice to know that a bank (ECB) can solve a nations problems. Fuck the people, fuck the government, fuck it all- now lets have our fucking banks print some god-danm money-problem solved!
Facebook IPO by year end
PigMen will be ramping the tape
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-29/facebook-said-to-plan-10-billio...
Can you not read?
"The company aims to go public between April and June, the Journal said."
That's 2012, not 2011. There will be no IPO by year end.
Thanks for putting items like this up Tyler(s). It's really appreciated.
7.5% italian bond
+1
For the third time and only got 70% of its "desires"...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-28/italy-set-for-a-sizeable-cost-increase-at-8-billion-euro-bond-auction.html
amazing..last week this sent the market down, this week everything is positive for now
In the land of the blind...the one-eyed man is king!...lol.
There is no solving a debt problem with still more debt and the market is factoring that in everyday...keep stackin ;-)
UPDATE:
Mon 5 December
"Italy's Monti seeks broad support for crisis measures...""Italy's cabinet is set to approve [] package of reforms on Monday..."
"The plan will then be outlined during two news conferences - one with foreign reporters - and presented in both houses of parliament in the afternoon."
Link:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/03/us-italy-idUSTRE7B20I220111203