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Complete List Of Europe's Expanded Bank "Junk"

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Via Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors,

The good people at Knight put together a comprehensive list of potential ratings for banks in Europe after Moody's came out with their outlooks. I agree that banks getting shifted to non-investment grade is a big deal.  We saw the impact for Portugal once it got taken out of the indices, and I think for banks it will be an even bigger deal to lose that investment grade status.  Sure, they can still go to the LTRO, but it is hard to function as anything other than a zombie bank once you lose that rating.....

Knight report below

********************************************************************************

Moody’s Investors Service placed the ratings of 109 financial institutions on review for possible downgrade, citing as reasons for the reviews · the difficult operating environment · weakening sovereign creditworthiness, as well as · challenges related to banks’ capital market activities

While I don’t normally consider it my remit to comment on the opinions of credit rating agencies, Moody’s review threatens to push large swathes of bank liabilities from the “investment grade” into the “non-investment grade” universe, which can force selling for many investors and thereby artificially distort prices of such obligations. To the extent that such forced selling has not set in to any meaningful extent yet, investors with mandates tied to credit indices (which use ratings as selection criteria) or directly constrained by rating guidelines might want to consider the likely changes and start to proactively manage their exposures with the forthcoming downgrades in mind.

The following are European banks and classes of their securities which are likely to face a downgrade to non-investment grade from the IG category as a result of this rating review:

Austria:
BAWAG     dated sub debt remains on watch down from Baa3
AUSTVB    1 notch … dated sub debt at Baa3

Denmark:
Denmarks Skibskredit  5 notches … senior at A2 (to Ba1)
Dankske Bank          3 notches … junior sub at Baa2 and hybrids at Baa3
DLR Credit            3 notches … senior at Baa1 (to Ba1)
Jyske Bank            3 notches … junior sub at Baa2 and hybrids at Baa3
Nykredit Bank         3 notches … junior sub at Baa1 and hybrids at Baa2
Spar Nord Bank        3 notches … senior at Baa2
Sydbank               3 notches … junior sub at Baa2 and hybrids at Baa3

Netherlands:
SNS Bank              3 notches … senior at Baa1; dated sub at Baa2
Friesland Bank        3 notches … dated sub at Baa1

Finland:
Sampo Bank            3 notches … hybrids at Baa3

France:
BNP Paribas              2 notches … hybrids at Baa3
Credit Agricole          2 notches … hybrids at Baa3
HSBC France              2 notches … junior sub at Baa2
Oddo & Cie               2 notches … senior at Baa2; subs and hybrids as well
Banque Monetaire et Fin. 2 notches … hybrids at Baa3 (BPCE Group)
BFCM                     2 notches … hybrids at Baa3
Credit Immobilier        4 notches … junior sub at A3 (to Ba1)

Germany:
Deutsche Bank            2 notches ... hybrids at Baa2
Dt. Postbank             2 notches … sub debt at Baa2
DZ Bank …                1 notch   … some hybrids at Baa3
Nord/LB (NDB)            2 notches … sub debt at Baa2
Bremer Landesbank        2 notches … sub debt at Baa2
Unicredit Bank AG (HVB)  2 notches … sub debt at Baa2

Ireland:
Ulster Bank (RBS)        1 notch   … sub debt at Baa3

Italy:
Banca delle Marce         3 notches … senior at Baa1; sub Baa2; junior sub Baa3
MONTE                     2 notches … sub at Baa2
Banca Pop Alto Adige      3 notches … senior at Baa1; sub Baa2; junior sub Baa3
Banca Pop di Cividale     4 notches … senior at Baa1; sub Baa2; junior sub Baa3
Banca Pop di Marostica    3 notches … senior at Baa2
Banca Pop di Spoleto      4 notches … senior at Baa1
Banca Sella Holding       2 notches … sub debt and Tier III at Baa2
Banca Tercas              2 notches … senior at Baa3
Banco Popolare            2 notches … senior at Baa2; sub Baa3; Tier III at Baa3
Banca Italease            1 notch   … senior at Baa3
Cassa di Risp di Bolzano  3 notches … senior at Baa2; sub and junior sub Baa3
Cassa di Risp Chieti      2 notches … senior at Baa3
Credito Valtellinese      4 notches … senior at Baa1; sub Baa2, junior sub Baa3
Iccrea BancaImpresa       1 notch   … sub debt and hybrids at Baa3
Unicredit                 2 notches … junior sub at Baa2
Unione di Banche Italiane 3 notches … sub debt at Baa1, junior sub Baa2, T3 Baa1
Unipol Banca              4 notches … senior at Baa2

Norway:
DNB Bank                  2 notches … hybrids at Baa3

Portugal:
Banco Santander Totta     2 notches … senior at Baa2; sub at Baa3

Spain:
BBVA                      3 notches … hybrids at Baa2
CaixaBank                 3 notches … hybrids at Baa3
La Caixa                  3 notches … senior at Baa1
Bankinter                 3 notches … sub debt at Baa1
Banco Popular Espanol     no guidance … sub debt at Baa2
Caja Rural de Granada     3 notches … senior at Baa1
Banca March               3 notches … senior at Baa1; junior sub at Baa2
Banco Sabadell            no guidance … sub debt at Baa3
Ibercaja                  2 notches … sub debt at Baa3
Liberbank                 2 notches … sub debt at Baa3
Cajamar Caja Rural        1 notch   … senior at Baa3
Banco CEISS               no guidance … senior at Baa3
Lico Leasing              1 notch   … senior at Baa3

Sweden:
Svenska Handelsbanken     2 notches ... hybrids at Baa2
Swedbank                  1 notch   … junior sub at Baa3

UK:
Lloyds Banking Group      2 notches … sub debt at Baa3
Lloyds TSB Bank plc       2 notches … sub debt at Baa2; junior sub at Baa3
HBOS                      2 notches … sub debt at Baa3
Bank of Scotland plc      2 notches … sub debt at Baa2; junior sub at Baa3
Royal Bk of Scotland plc  1 notch   … sub debt at Baa3
Natwest                   1 notch   … sub debt at Baa3
Barclays plc (HoldCo)     2 notches … sub debt at Baa2
Barclays Bank plc (OpCo)  2 notches … junior sub at Baa2; hybrids at Baa2/Baa3

As mentioned, the list above indicates banks and classes of securities which might cross over into the non-IG space. However, the overall list of rating reviews is larger still with the following notching guidance:

1 notch:
Banco BPI, Banco Espirito Santo, Banco Italease, Banesto ,BANIF - Banco International do Funchal, Banque et Caisse d'Epargne de l'Etat, BCP, Caixa Economica Montepio Geral, Caixa Gral de Depositos, Cajamar Caja Rural, DZ Bank, Espirito Santo Financial Group, HESLAN, Iccrea BancaImpresa, ING, Intesa Sanpaolo, LBBW, Locindus, Nordea,RBS, RZB, SEB, SocGen, Swedbank, WGZ Bank

2 notches:
ABN Amro, Banca Carige, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Banca Sella, Banca Tercas, Banco Popolare, Banco Santander Totta, Barclays, BFCM, BNP Paribas, BPCE, Bremer Landesbank, Cassa di Risparmio della Provincia di Chieti, Commerzbank, Credit Agricole, Credit Mutuel Arkea, DekaBank, Deutsche Bank, DNB Bank, Dt. Hypothekenbank, Dt. Postbank, HSBC, HSBC, Ibercaja, ING Diba, KBC, LaSer Cofinoga, Liberbank, Lico Leasing, Lloyds Group, Nord/LB, Oddo & Cie, Pojhola Bank, Rabobank, Santander, Svenska Handelsbanken, Unicredit

3 notches:
Banca della Marca Credito Cooperativo, Banca March, Banca Monastier e del Sile, Banca Popolare Alto Adige-Suedtiroler Volksbank, Banca Popolare di Marostica, Banco Cooperativo Espanol, Bancoa, Bankinter, BBVA, BNL, CaixaBank, Caja Rural de Granada, Caja Rural de Navarra, Cassa di Risparmio di Bolzano-Suedtiroler Sparkasse, Cassa di Risparmio di Parma e Piacenza, CECA (Confederacion Espanola de Cajas de Ahorro), Credit Suisse, Credito Emiliano, Dankse, Erste Bank, Eurohypo, Friesland Bank, Jyske Bank, Landshypotek, Leaseplan, Nykredit, Ringkjobing Landobank, Sampo Bank, SNS Bank, Spar Nord Bank, Sydbank, UBS, Unione di Bance Italiane

4 notches:
Banca Popolare di Cividale, Caisse Centrale du Credit Immobilier de France, Credito Valtellinese, Unipol Banca

5 notches:
Denmarks Skibskredit

No notching guidance:
Banco CAM, Banco CEISS, Banco Pastor, Banco Popular Espanol, Banco Sabadell Unicaja Banco

Short-term ratings
Further, the likely downgrades mean, that a whole bunch of banks will see their short term ratings lowered as well (which could impact their short-term market funding negatively). The following will likely lose their P-1 rating:

Banca Popolare Friuladria, Banco Cooperativo Espanol, Banco Popular Espanol, Banesto, Bankinter, Barclays plc (Holding  …. Bank affirmed at P-1), BBVA, BNL, Bremer Landesbank, Caisse Centrale du Credit Immobilier de France, CaixaBank, Cassa di Risparmio di Parma e Piacenza, CECA, Commerzbank, Danske Bank, Dt. Postbank, Erste Bank, Eurohypo, ICO (Instituto de Credito Official) … direct downgrade to P-2, Intesa Sanpaolo, Jyske Bank, KBC, LaSer Cofinoga, LBBW, Lloyds, Nord/LB, Nykredit, RBS, Sampo Bank, Swedbank, Sydbank, UBS, Unicaja, Unicredit.

 Otto Dichtl ** 16th February 2012 **

 


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Thu, 02/16/2012 - 10:24 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yikes, time to find out who really runs bartertown.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 10:35 | Link to Comment Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

Skank of America is the worlds worst bank and is run by a bunch of maggots who feast on human remains!

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 11:08 | Link to Comment VanillAnalyst
VanillAnalyst's picture

Two bulls enter! One bear leaves!

There's only one rule............ THERE ARE NO RULES!

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 11:12 | Link to Comment smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

is it just me or is ms. merkel an "angry boy"....

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 11:15 | Link to Comment Nothing To See Here
Nothing To See Here's picture

The people who care about downgrades nowadays are people who are out of the "market". Those who are still in the "market" are merely those who should be downgraded (states, banks, pension funds and such) and whose lives depend on the "market" being sustained no matter what. Thus, come the next downgrades, risk is still on. Nobody sells because it's in nobody's interest. And you can always redefine "investment grade" can't you?

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 10:38 | Link to Comment battle axe
battle axe's picture

one word, GOLD

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 11:01 | Link to Comment Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

FOOD

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 11:05 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Both.  The chinese are in Iowa right now setting up future contracts on corn and soybeans.  Can not wait to tell them we want to be paid in gold.  Any country with a fucking billion mouths to feed should be careful what they wish for.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 10:26 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Wow.  That's a dance card to remember.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 10:32 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

So most UK banks are Baa3 but UK sovereign is AAA? Now, THAT, seems unusual.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 10:37 | Link to Comment Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

The Careless Whisper Morning Update & Threadjacking

 

Nigel Farage:  Chaos? You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W8Ayb8P1LbU

France Proposes 33% Sales Tax On Cars With More Than 180 Horsepower; "It's A Luxury"

http://www.leftlanenews.com/french-bill-would-heavily-tax-cars-rated-at-...

NJ Governor Orders Flags Flown At Half-Staff To Honor Whintney Houston

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/national/nj_gov_strongly_defends_lowering_p...

Sony Raises Price Of Whitney's Songs By 60%; They Got This: ©

http://www.rollingstone.com/music/news/sony-apologizes-for-whitney-houst...

Study: 90% Have Over Limit Bisphenol A In Blood; Causes Cancer, Diabetes, & Overweight

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2102003/Chemical-used-plastics...

Twitter Admits It Hacked Your Cell Phone Contact List; Refuses To Say Who Got The Info

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-app-privacy-20120216,0,7863079.sto...

Michelin New Tire Lasts 90,000 Miles

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20120216/AUTO03/202160365/New-tires-a...|newswell|text|FRONTPAGE|s

Starbucks Sales Surge On "Starbucks Appreciation Day" For Supporting 2nd Amendment

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/nationnow/2012/02/starbucks-guns-boycott...

PETA Ad Promotes Rough Sex By Vegans (scroll down for VIDEO)

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2101762/Controversial-PETA-ad-cl...

Serial Killa? AZ Cop Has 7 Seperate Shootings In 10 Years; 6 Fatalities; All Called Justified

http://www.azfamily.com/news/Seventh-shooting-incident-for-Scottsdale-of...

Anti-Gay Conservative Talk Show Host Accused Of Hit-And-Run After Leaving Drag Show At Gay Bar

http://www.click2houston.com/news/Police-watch-bar-video-in-hit-and-run-...

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 11:05 | Link to Comment Ex-Pat
Ex-Pat's picture

Careless Whisper, to be fair, I viewed some of your links.  The Rolling Stones' link was broken.  I was not interested in the subsequent update on the the health impact of plastics.  Neither did I care for any of the previous links, such as the story regarding French taxes embedded in a luxury car advert.  Thus, I would consider bestowing a red flag as a negative vote for your long list of useless links, but personally view each red-flag that I receive on ZH as a gold star, a badge of honor, and am disinclined to offer you,  Careless Whisper, the equivalent.  In the future I will ignore your posts, Careless Whisper.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 11:12 | Link to Comment Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

dayum ex-pat !!! not a single link that you found interesting or informative? my bad. well maybe this is more your style:

Great Britain Olympic Diving Team Does Lip Sync VIDEO - Sexy And I Know It

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bws52wtv6Ts

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 11:00 | Link to Comment tabasco71
tabasco71's picture

UK corporates are quite strong (deleveraging, higher cash) so GDP could theoretically recover if anyone else wanted to buy something, especially since UK has 'control' over its own currency (no consensus led decision making as with EZ).

One hiccup... Ireland still remains the destination for a rather large proportion of UK exports.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 11:36 | Link to Comment Acet
Acet's picture

Except that the UK produces little more than services, with 20% of it's economy being financials.

I worked inside that industry in the City, including the investment banking division of one of the banks saved by the government. I also worked in an IT Consultancy during the .Net boom that burst in 2000.

What I've seen in the bailed-out UK bank was a lot like what I've seen in the IT Consultancy at the peak of the Net bubble: a huge accumulation of fat and wasted resources that was the product of very fast and out of control growth during the giddy bubble years when growth was everything and money was not a problem. Far too many people seemed to have been promoted again and again simply because "you're here and we're growing the team and need somebody to lead it, so you'll be promoted", the "chief to indian" ratio was about 1-to-2, there were a lot of examples of the Peter Principle in action and frankly far too many people that went into the business not because they were any good at it but because it paid well.

The main difference between that IT Consultancy and the Bailed-out UK Bank was that, post-bubble-burst, the IT Consultancy was forced to downsize and trim the fat to survive, while the Bailed-out bank, under zero pressure to become competitive, not only kept layers upon layers of near-worthless people and a seriously broken management structure, but even continued to add people in.

From what I've heard, this has repeated itself across most of the UK Finance industry, where the direct and indirect government and central bank measures to protect them meant that most had very little pressure to trim the fat from the boom years, meaning that almost all are still far too inefficient, misallocating still far too many resources from the UK's wider economy and acting like an anchor tied around the country's neck.

Until the country diversifies away from this industry and true costs are felt by these companies, the country has far too little chance from having competitive companies drive growth via an export boom, so it will remain in the current situation of stagflation.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 12:04 | Link to Comment tabasco71
tabasco71's picture

Agreed.  I too was a consultant before moving into banking.  There was an overdependancy on wealth management instead of wealth creation in this sovereign and this has been a process that commenced many years ago as the manufacturing capacity here was wound up.

I say 'was an overdependency on wealth management', because more worrying is the speed with which we seem to be taking a second step away from good honest production by generating a whole new dimension of industry engaged in non-value-add.  Call them compliance, regulation, health & safety, etc, but it seems our directionless economy now even considers adding value as too risky and is attempting to ratify the presence of employees who have no impact at all on the top line, yet seek to justify their existence by 'creating efficiency' in the middle of the P&L.  The only way I can see that they can influence value is by causing less to be lost through an adverse event than would have been had they not been diligently paying attention to matters.

I'm aware that I appear antiquated in my naive perspective that actually making something and selling it will provide a return.

To truly play devils advocate, war and leisure are the only sustainable industries, and the UK has neither the scale or the talent to excel at either of those...

Gotta go, another set of boxes to tick...

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 10:28 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"Sure, they can still go to the LTRO, but it is hard to function as anything other than a zombie bank once you lose that rating....."

They are ALL zombie banks. The only real questions remaining are how long has each bank been infected and when do the various body parts begin to decompose and fall off......assuming they haven't fallen off already?

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 11:28 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Zombies? Hahahaha. That's a good one. This is what the Japanese famously called "Shockku." Sticking "the shit" at the ECB only works for a time...and it is a short time indeed. Look at the US...even with "the world's reserve currency" Wall Street was totally obliterated by Lehman Brothers' collapse. Not that it mattered to the economy of course.......

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 10:30 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Our zombies are doin okay...still roamin around.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 10:30 | Link to Comment ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Nice to see Eastern EU/Russia faring well. I think we all know growth will come from Eurasia in this decade..

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 10:32 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

LTRO Liquidity for EMU:

 http://i43.tinypic.com/2md3xpe.jpg

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 10:32 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

All part of the plan.

Until Moody mans up and downgrades America and Japan too it's BS.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 10:43 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

You will never see that happen. Not as long as Uncle Warren owns it.The U.S. will go down like Aig with a triple AAA rating.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 11:02 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Totally agree.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 10:32 | Link to Comment The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

Thank the heavens I pulled all my funds from Bankia. Still got something like 42 euros in that account thought...

 

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 10:37 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 10:39 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

Well, any self respecting gunslinger in the Wild West had many notches on his forty five colt. Why shouldn't the banks, when they strut down main street at Dodge. Gunslinger's walk and you die with your boots on! No bail-outs for you friend! 

In WS as in ECB country these days we don't seem to apply those rules any more. If you have a notch on your pea shooter you are deemed immortal and you'll never die on Main Street! 

Don't need Wyatt Earp, he'd be out of a job! Unless he worked for the Pinkerton richman's insurance equivalent : S&P or Moody's protection racket! 

 

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 11:09 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Right, simply put; money talks and bullshit walks.   Good time to be a "contract" worker.  I foresee a lot of wealthy folks who where robbed by MF global seaking out their assitance shortly.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 11:30 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

With the Mafia you mean.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 10:42 | Link to Comment CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Did the Philly fed number just get leaked?

Probably.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 11:36 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Leaked? Do you really believe that could happen? Are you questioning the integrity ofthe system? You must be a terrorist. Off to the Fema camps you go. 

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 10:42 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Confined to sub-prime junk...nothing to see here. Junk is now good...buy stawks.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 10:44 | Link to Comment Dermasolarapate...
Dermasolarapaterraphatrima's picture

Colorful list.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 10:54 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

The latest from Greece... and it's insane.

http://newspano.com/news/greek-rhetoric-turns-into-battle-of-wills

The battle of wills between Athens and its eurozone lenders has intensified, with Greece's finance minister accusing "forces in Europe" of pushing his country out of the euro while his German counterpart suggested postponing Greek elections and installing a new government without political parties.

Say whaaaaaaaat? Regime change... basically a declaration of war.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 11:20 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

and installing a new government without political parties.

I don't object to that. In fact I think political parties should be BANNED and only Individuals allowed to stand for election. It would be better if Gangster Groups could not engage in Politics and Corporations funding Parties were expropriated and turned into State Enterprises. It has been far too cosy with men like Liesler Kiep getting suitcases of cash in 1991 from men like Karl-Heinz Schreiber, the arms dealer, so he could have Schauble stick it in the Swiss Bank used to launder CDU bribes for Kohl's Party. When the lid blew in 1999. So Schauble knows all about corrupt political parties

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/590558.stm

Wolfgang Schaeuble was one of Germany's most respected politicians who despite his closeness to Helmut Kohl, promised to get to the bottom of the finance scandal and ensure a full party investigation.

But on 10 January he admitted on German television that he had met the businessman at the centre of the scandal, Karlheinz Schreiber, at a CDU fundraising event in 1994 and had accepted a 100,000 deutschmark cash donation from him.


http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2000/02/27/scandal-sinks-schauble.htm

http://www.dw.de/dw/article/0,,5137950,00.html

 

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 11:23 | Link to Comment Nothing To See Here
Nothing To See Here's picture

Of course, if that would be true (government without political parties) that would be a good thing. But the truth is, that would be a banker party then.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 11:34 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Yep. You know they really don't mean ``no political party``... they mean ``our bankster puppet``.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 10:50 | Link to Comment G-R-U-N-T
G-R-U-N-T's picture
Money-printing, central banking scammers should be locked in prison, says Bloom


 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5NuHOXWlgM&feature=player_embedded

 

Hm...

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 10:52 | Link to Comment the 300000000th...
the 300000000th percent's picture

I guess zombie will have to be the next "killin it"

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 11:14 | Link to Comment Hannibal
Hannibal's picture

US wants SWIFT war on Iran
By Pepe Escobar 

What was the parade of European poodles thinking - that Tehran would just roll over and absorb the European Union's oil embargo, scheduled to start on July 1? 

No wonder Brussels was caught as a Gucci deer in the headlights when the news started to flow that Tehran would pre-empt the move and immediately slap its own embargo of crude oil exports to six European Union countries - deeply in crisis Club Med members Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain plus recession-hit France and the Netherlands..... 

more:  http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NB17Ak04.html

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 13:48 | Link to Comment Canucklehead
Canucklehead's picture

The war with Iran is qued up.  Basically everyone is looking for a second, third and possibly fourth domino to place in line with the Iranian domino.

We have the Greek situation.

We have the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood situation.

We have the Pakistan situation.

We have the Chinese place in the resource matrix situation.

The Iranians do not want to step back and admit their positioning regarding Israel was a mistake.  Iran does not want to apologize to Israel for being petty, ill-mannered, and generally slow witted regarding geopolitics.  It is easy to see Egypt positioning to be the second domino to fall.  Pakistan understands the way this British type of game is played and has no problems back-pedalling to buy time and get their derriere out of harms way.

The Greek default could unleash many unpleasant situations.  As long as that tragedy plays out on Greek territory, there should be no lasting harm done.

China need resource security and will play these events as a counter to US-EU moves.  That game may backfire for the Chinese as they may find themselves drawn into events that they cannot logistically support.  Any move to place logistical assets in place could well trip the first domino over.

As time goes on, these dominoes will slowly place themselves in a line.  If the Greek situation gets messy for Europe, it may be in the Germans best interests to have the US and Israel bomb Iran.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 11:45 | Link to Comment New American Re...
New American Revolution's picture

The real question in all these down grades, is how do they effect the other major banks of the world that co-habitate in the markets with them.   Banks that come to mind are JPM, MS, GS, C, BOA, WFC, et al.   Welllll???!!!!

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 11:49 | Link to Comment New American Re...
New American Revolution's picture

Besides that, most of the people who post comments here need to get a life.   If you've nothing to really comment on and just want to see your monicker on line,... get a life.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 15:11 | Link to Comment Swain
Swain's picture

In 2008, the ratings agencies didn't downgrade Iceland's banks until 5 minutes before closing. Will they be any more prescient this time around?

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