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The Complete 'Ranked' World Calendar Of Events To The End Of The Year

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The market over the summer has been quieter than we had expected - thanks to Draghi's threats placating-words and Bernanke's promises. Equities rallied, Bunds and Treasuries sold off, and government spreads in Europe declined. All these markets look more constructive. However, the event calendar in the near future is very heavy, notably the political one. This article from UBS' global strategy group does three things. First, they provide a list of events until the end of the year. Second, the relative importance of the various events are ranked; and finally, they provide, where needed, a comment on what to expect.

We still believe three topics will drive markets: (1) the ongoing European sovereign crisis, where we see some progress (albeit slow) as Draghi has pushed forward his agenda and found some support from politicians; (2) the political issues in the US, although the main change is the more dovish Fed; and (3) world growth, which has been disappointing and is a major risk to monitor. 

Issue #1: European Sovereign Crisis
After the positive performance of markets, we are more nervous. The political calendar (see below) is very heavy and will provide plenty of opportunities to disappoint markets, or  at least provide uncertainties on which attention may be focused. The issue is not only about a potential adverse outcome, but also and maybe mainly about political action being too slow for markets. For instance, the ECB suggested it would wait until Germany’s Constitutional Court ruling (due September 11th) before unveiling its plan to purchase government bonds. We are thus about a month away from clarity on that topic.

Issue #2: US political moves
There are many dimensions to look for in the US. This includes the upcoming US elections but also, obviously, the fiscal cliff and the debt ceiling.

Issue #3: Global growth
Although much attention is being paid to the above-mentioned political developments, the key risk might actually be growth. Recent data points have confirmed that growth is weak in most parts of the world. We believe this is the main reason why a number of central banks have already reacted (BoE) or are planning to (Fed, ECB). Weaker growth would make the fiscal consolidation in the developed world much more difficult and lead to renewed market stress.

 

 

Source: UBS

 


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Wed, 08/29/2012 - 23:09 | Link to Comment Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

That is a whole lot of BS on the agenda.

 

OT:

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ps-clean-artist-exits-211842153.html

 

Guy instrumental in the US AAA downgrade gets the curtain call at S&P.

 

et tu S&P? No wonder they have been so quiet lately. Headed back to their sly hole.

 

 

Wed, 08/29/2012 - 23:12 | Link to Comment Death and Gravity
Death and Gravity's picture

"The market over the summer has been quieter than we had expected - thanks to Draghi's threats placating-words and Bernanke's promises."

Yes - Heroin tends to calm down the dopehead when injected.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 02:02 | Link to Comment Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

To the DURDENS of ZEROHEDGE:

I'm starting to get a tad bit worried about all this Morgan Stanley talk...  I'm hearing people, tons of people, talking about their imminent bankruptcy.  Now I know that they are by far the most leveraged, and I heard they were in trouble with some of the derivitives bets, but this was 5-6 months ago. Now Ppl are whispering these rumors all over, stock is fine in the overnight lately, I'm just wondering what ZH thinks and knows.

Now I'm long vix and fuck equities, but I'm still very curious as to what is going on.  Any ideas?

 

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 05:22 | Link to Comment old naughty
old naughty's picture

I don't want to know. Too fxxking many agenda.

Don't tell me and please don't wake me.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 05:37 | Link to Comment AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

Here is my list

  1. EURO break up
  2. BRIC slow down
  3. US fiscal cliff
  4. Iran-Israel war

 

I'm actually wishing that all 4 happens and just get it over with.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 06:12 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

you are hoping that the Oligarchs raise the white flag of their own defeat?

You don't know their mind set. Fight to the last bullet, paid by us, to save their own skins. 

In France the socialist government is now actively putting in place alternative scenarios for anticipating the Euro meltdown. Given the Jacobin nature of french elistist circles running the country they all point to one thing : More pressure to inject knee jerk government intervention in economy to control prices and supply and demand. The market mechanism could be junked openly! 

So Europe built on the great common market principle from inception could come apart, if this scenario is put into place! 

Crazy world! If France says good bye to unified markets, and goes protectionist big time, we are talking of a big divide opening up between north and south europe, and treason being sung on both sides. Awesome regression. Especially as the binding cement of common currency will be perceived as the damning millstone in the debacle of recriminatory hindsight. 

Statism in Europe has been known to thrive in depression; aka Franco/Salazar both survived for thirty years. Club Med could revert to that! 

Not the North, with their Protestant beliefs they will stick to free markets. Germany will not go back to statist regime. It has learnt that from third Reich and Stasi days! 

France is the lynch pin to Euro evolution. If the narrow minded Jacobins win we go back to regression. If the social democrats win, we stay in market economy and State lets private entrepreneurs take economic driving seat, albeit in a continental wide regulated economy. We stay firmly united inspite of all the nationalistic sour pussying.

Tipping times make for the uncertainty principle to function at maximum spread. Lets hope the history of europe has taught its elites some basic lessons. 

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 07:09 | Link to Comment Ag Tex
Ag Tex's picture

Is importance still taken into consideration when the outcome is predetermined?

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 07:43 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

nothing which is predetermined stays predetermined for long; its against human nature as action always begets reaction! 

Humans have this recurrent aptitude of defying Newton's law, by making reaction more violent than the action itself! 

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 03:11 | Link to Comment joe6px
joe6px's picture

Just a single feigt, this thing will be larger and more profound than we are capable of imangining.  http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/the-war-on-terror-over

Wed, 08/29/2012 - 23:09 | Link to Comment JackT
JackT's picture

If only we could convert all that expelled hot air into gold.

Wed, 08/29/2012 - 23:11 | Link to Comment JohnG
JohnG's picture

Headline risk Bitchez.

Wed, 08/29/2012 - 23:26 | Link to Comment economicfreefall
economicfreefall's picture

Sept. 12-13 will be an interesting couple of days. In the meantime banks keep paying off their evil deeds with just fractions of the money they've made doing them.

Citigroup has agreed to pay $590m (£373m) to investors who allege they were misled about the scale of the bank’s ownership of troubled mortgage debt before the financial crisis.

The class-action suit, which was filed in New York in 2009, accused Citi of employing a “CDO-related quasi-Ponzi scheme” to conceal the growing risks on its balance sheet from the mortgage-backed debt and collateralised debt obligations (CDOs) it owned. Citi told the investors that the CDOs had been sold when, in fact, the bank still remained liable for any losses the products suffered, the lawsuit claimed.

https://miningstockvaluator.com/news.php?id=31

Wed, 08/29/2012 - 23:28 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

Thank you ZH

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 03:05 | Link to Comment Tsunami Wave
Tsunami Wave's picture

Agreed +1.. thank you Tyler(s) for all the heads up on everything.

Wed, 08/29/2012 - 23:37 | Link to Comment trip kitchen
trip kitchen's picture

No honorable mention for Dec 21st?

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 01:08 | Link to Comment toomanyfakecons...
toomanyfakeconservatives's picture

No... the fear-bots want you glued to the mainstream headlines. The biggest astrological event in 26,000 yaers and the MASS ARRESTS of hundreds of top traitors to the Constitution are not as sexy as Mitt Romney's haircut.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 03:00 | Link to Comment joe6px
joe6px's picture

Too obvious.. too...  The only thing lacking is the Forward! slogan from our comrade, I mean, the right honorable Mr. Obama.  Wait, when I look at Obama: http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/contrib.php?cid=N00009638 and then

Romney:  http://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/contrib.php?id=N00000286, well then I think that my vote for Goldman Sachs is in the bag! Go big banks go!  We have a ghost to believe in..only a whisper of a democratic republic.....take your paper dollars and sell them to whoever  or what fool will buy/take them.  That time is almost over.  Best of luck friend.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 10:33 | Link to Comment monad
monad's picture

Here's an honorable mention for the gullible. Suckerz! Gotcha!

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:03 | Link to Comment monad
monad's picture

dp

Wed, 08/29/2012 - 23:46 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

 

 

A lot of transition & hope has been made through our Arab Spring manufactured Economic Crisis.. The Fund was able to hoodwink two more countries to join our membership in the transitioning of expanding the highly overleveraged IMF ledger. We’re extremely excited about our latest expansion in utilizing Thimblerig economic principles.

http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=1769369608001 

First Deputy Governor Kerstin af Jochnick shares 244 pages theorizing a springboard or water board Riksbanking assessment of economic development report. All await with baited breath.

http://www.riksbank.se/en/Press-and-published/Speeches/2012/af-Jochnick-A-springboard-for-the-monetary-policy-meeting-in-September/

Wed, 08/29/2012 - 23:57 | Link to Comment Cult_of_Reason
Cult_of_Reason's picture

While the market is obsessing with J-Hole (or Jackson Hole), there is another more important and ominous budget hole was discovered in Spain's budget.

Via FT:

“Economists have uncovered a hole in Spain’s budget that threatens to allow the country’s regional governments to overspend this year, calling into question the credibility of Madrid’s deficit reduction plan agreed with Brussels.

The discrepancy in this year’s spending plans for Spain’s 17 autonomous regions—which have become one of the main battle grounds for prime minister Mariano Rajoy’s austerity program—could allow the regions to exceed their agreed budget deficit for 2012 by almost 10 percent.

Under the regional spending plan signed off in May by Cristobal Montoro, Spain’s budget minister, the regions have been approved to claim back 9.7 billion euros ($12.1 billion) in bills generated last year but left unpaid. Yet this sum exceeds the total of 8.5 billion euros of 2011 unpaid spending declared by the regions last year.

The resulting 1.2 billion euros hole amounts to about 8 percent of the 15 billion euros deficit the regions are allowed to run this year, based on an agreed total regional deficit of 1.5 percent of Spanish gross domestic product (GDP) for 2012.

“The government has either made a significant error in the accounts, which damages the credibility of the budget plans, or they are trying to hide something,” said Juan Rubio-Ramirez, a professor of economics at Duke University who has examined the accounts in a study for Fedea, a non-profit economics research foundation.”

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 01:04 | Link to Comment toomanyfakecons...
toomanyfakeconservatives's picture

Don't forget the biggest event of them all, one that has been long overdue, the MASS ARRESTS and trials of hundreds of top traitors to the Constitution of the United States of America. The rule of law, real money, personal responsibility, the Constitution, and about to make a roaring comeback. The most grotesque, most murderous, most despised illegitimate government in the history of the world is about to go the way of the dinosaur. Does anyone remember what John Travolta said to the Senator in the movie Swordfish before shooting thim through the heart? If you don't, you should. The MASS ARRESTS are coming. Sure as the sun will cross the sky, they are coming... http://tinyurl.com/cd5cyjo/

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 01:15 | Link to Comment FischerBlack
FischerBlack's picture

OT, but ZH is showing in all italics on my Windows 7/Firefox 15.0 workstation. It's a problem with the code of the page, I think. http://validator.w3.org/check?uri=http://www.zerohedge.com

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 02:44 | Link to Comment autonomos
autonomos's picture

The Complete 'Ranked' Year Calendar Of Events To The End Of The World?

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 03:10 | Link to Comment elwu
elwu's picture

According to this list, the decision of the German Constitutional Court is as important as the election of the next POTUS.

Strange times we live in.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 03:53 | Link to Comment HermanZeGerman
HermanZeGerman's picture

As if Obama vs. Romney would make any difference whatsoever. Both are beholden to exactly the same corporate interests. It's all a big YAWN!

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 04:41 | Link to Comment zilverreiger
zilverreiger's picture

Morgan stanley collapse imminent?  close your account now!

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1346270400.php

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 05:08 | Link to Comment Mr_Wonderful
Mr_Wonderful's picture

Whoa, how much will they steal when that pig goes belly up? Must have at least quarter of a million private accounts.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 06:03 | Link to Comment Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

How much? Everything they can get away with.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 05:31 | Link to Comment Eddy Vluggen
Eddy Vluggen's picture

..as a picture? Would've been dandy if it were an iCal file that I could import into my Google Calender.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:33 | Link to Comment covert
covert's picture

the markets are driven by ideas, beliefs and the practical limits of reality.

http://expose2.wordpress.com/2011/11/20/a-voice-from-the-dark/

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 12:35 | Link to Comment noobscalade
noobscalade's picture

Is there a source that maintains a calandar like this on an ongoing basis? 

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!