Complete Third Point Third Quarter Investor Letter

Tyler Durden's picture

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Sudden Debt's picture

Q4 results overall will be horific here in the EU. These last 2 weeks, everybody is stepping on the brakes.

The metal industry, machine building.... all down bigtime.


qussl3's picture

We are already off the cliff, just havent realized it yet.

Panic is next.

But the market is so stupid, it may take till lousy earnings before they realise it.

LawsofPhysics's picture

"We are already off the cliff, just havent realized it yet."


So long as "mark to fantasy" can be used by the corporate world and loses can be turned into "revenue" by the large banks this can go on for quite a while.

Call it the era of the "flying lemmings".

DarkestPhoenix's picture

Man, I hope so.  I need aobut two months before I can be financially ready for a collapse.  Right now, I'd be about 75% ready.  I have 30-40% of my PM portfolio where I want it to be, and if it all fell apart today, I could adjust and have about 50-75% of my PM holdings in place....But if it only waits until early/mid-January to fall apart.....I'll be at 100-125% of where I think I need to be.  I look at the green in the market this morning and am torn between disbelief and relief...

SheepDog-One's picture

Hey fund guy, theres some better shells a bit further out there on the beach now that all the water has gone out...dont worry just roll your pants up a bit higher when the tsunami arrives you'll be OK.

firstdivision's picture

I wonder how his exposure to USD and copper are currently.  He does seem quite cautious in today's environment, which I do see as a good thing.  With the boat sloshing from side to side, as everyone trys to predict the direction of the market, I hope Dan stays in the middle for the time being.  This shit storm could break either way at this point.  Oil seems to still be pricing in a full on QE3 with it's levitation at the moment. 

qussl3's picture

I think it's pricing a shooting war in Iran.

That and the reduced margins.

Tense INDIAN's picture

My update: The dollar is dancing inside a BULL FLAG.. It has touched the upper channel line 3 times and lower channel line 2 times...its near the upper channel line and just going a little low....and so u can see the jump in Global DOW to 1862 ....suddenly more low to the lower channel line is more probable which should take the stock markets wordwide HIGHER.....but then the BULL FLAG flag will work.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Just more opportunity to buy low and sell high.

EZT's picture

There is a recession in Europa, oil to the moon!

ivars's picture

Please answer a simple ? question here:


Today, 1,6 trillion USD of US Treasuries is owned by FED. About 11% of total USA debt.

I have a question to all the clever guys and girls here:

What happens ( some day in future) if the USA treasury defaults only (for a starter) on the treasuries it owes the FED?

As I understand, FED balance sheet will shrink, so will the USA debt.

Will such an "internal" default affect USD value against other currencies?

Thank You in advance.

midgetrannyporn's picture

Loeb is indicative of the terminal sickness of American society and the financial system in general. Non-productive paper shufflers uber-prosper while working folk are driven into poverty by the millions.

FranSix's picture

Let's take the opposite view.  Say, for instance that bond prices rallying hard against gold means that the dollar is about to drop drastically, essentially a devaluation.(below its price in the 1990's.)  So what that means is that bond prices keep going up, but that anything and everything priced in U.S. dollars is discarded.

Sick, no?  What you call a monetary crisis.

IMA5U's picture

I like how smug Loeb writes while his fund is not making any $$$