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Complete European Event Calendar: May, June Edition

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Two big events down, many, many others more left to go. Below is a full European event calendar for the rest of May and June. Just like in 2011, Europe got unhinged around this time and things peaked by November when only a coordinated global intervention saved the world courtesy of $1.3 trillion from the ECB, expanded FX swaps from the Fed and a PBOC rate cut. Only unlike in 2011, with Silvio and Sarko both now gone, the roster of political scapegoats is getting very, very thin. Whose head wil the vigilantes demand next? We will find out over the summer and fall, which promise to be even more exciting than last year.

Full events for the remainder of H1 via Deutsche Bank:

May

  • 6 May: Second round of the French presidential elections (see 22 April entry). The results of the 22 April first round suggest  that the Socialist candidate, Francois Hollande, is on course for victory.
  • 6 May: Greek general election. Polls close at 7pm local time, with exit polls released at the same time. Real-time results will start streaming approximately an hour later, and the first reliable country-wide estimate should be available around 10pm local time. If the results are a close call, the final outcome may not be known until the early hours of Monday. The last batch of polls was published on April 20th, ahead of the poll blackout period. These pointed to a picture that has remained remarkably consistent  throughout the last two months: a large number of undecideds (~20%), record-low support for the two traditional governmental parties (New Democracy and PASOK) and rising extremes on both the left and right. The ultimate result is sensitive to how the undecideds vote. Assuming a proportional allocation, New Democracy and PASOK should be able to secure a decent majority. Polls using a more sophisticated allocation technique point to an inability to form a government however. The bottom line is that the result is too close to call.
  • 6 May: German state election in Schleswig- Holstein. On recent opinion polls, the current conservative-liberal coalition will lose its majority despite the fact that the liberals will most likely exceed the 5% threshold to enter parliament again. A CDU/SPD grand coalition is a possible outcome. However, it is open which of the two parties will receive the most votes and subsequently appoint the leader of the grand coalition government.
  • 6 and 7 May: First round of Italian local elections (second round on 20 and 21 May). This will be a first test to see the degree  of electoral support to those parties backing Monti’s government – nine million people are called to the polls (about a fifth of Italy’s total electors). The relative performance of the Northern League and Berlusconi’s PDL could be an interesting insight.  The two parties, which formed the core of the previous government, were unable to prevent and control the sovereign crisis.  Since then the PDL decided to support Monti’s government, contributing to avoid early elections, which would likely have had disastrous consequences for Italy. On the contrary, the Northern League opted to further increase its populist message and  move to the opposition against Monti.
  • 7 May: Germany to debate ESM. Parliamentary public hearing on the ESM Treaty.
  • 8 May: Greece auction. Bills.
  • 8 May: EFSF auction. Bills.
  • 11 May: European Commission to release spring economic forecasts.
  • 11 May: Italy auction. Bills.
  • 13 May: German state election in NRW. The vote in NRW can be seen as an important test of the electorate’s political mood. The polls indicate that the SPD (around 38%) and the Greens (about 12%) may win a stable majority. The CDU has support  levels at about 33% in the polls. NRW’s CDU party leader Norbert Röttgen may well achieve some 35% (roughly in line with national averages) but the Greens clearly have no preference for governing with him. Whether the liberals can clear the 5% hurdle remains to be seen. The election in NRW is the second-last state-level test before the national election in mid-
    September or October of 2013. In January 2013, state elections in Lower Saxony will expose the conservative-liberal camp to new risks (see German political update, Focus Europe, 23 March 2012).
  • 14 May: Spain auction. Bills.
  • 14 May: Italy auction. Bonds.
  • 14-15 May: Eurogroup and ECOFIN finance ministers meetings.
  • 15 May: Greece auction. Bills.
  • 15 May: Flash Estimate EU and euro area GDP. Eurostat to publish preliminary estimates for Q1 2012 GDP.
  • 17 May: Spain auction. Bonds.
  • 22 May: Spain auction. Bills.
  • 25 May: German parliament vote on Eurozone ‘Fiscal Compact’. The Fiscal Compact to strengthen budgetary discipline within the euro area will require a two-thirds majority in both the Bundestag and the Bundesrat, the upper house. Until now, cooperation between the coalition parties and the opposition has been smooth, underlining the pro-Europe sentiment. The SPD and the Greens are insisting on taxation of the financial sector and a growth package in return for their support. The latter fits into the broader debate on a European level, including modification of structural funds or even new financing  instruments such as project bonds. However, we do not feel this will pose a risk to the Fiscal Compact being approved as the opposition has no interest in sending such a signal to the EU. Most probably the compact’s approval will be linked to i) deciding on a growth pact by the end of the year and ii) agreeing on a roadmap for introducing additional taxation on the financial sector, or at least give the go-ahead for national solutions (see article on German politics in Focus Europe on 23 March).
  • 28 May: Italy auction. Bonds.
  • 29 May: Italy auction. Bills.
  • 31 May: Irish referendum on Euro zone ‘Fiscal Compact’. A recent opinion poll put the support for the Fiscal Compact at 47% (down 2pp), the No vote at 35% (up 2pp) and 19% Don’t Know. This equates to a 58%:42% Yes:No ratio when the undecided votes are excluded. The concern is the still high level of undecided voters. Although Ireland is making good progress through its EU-IMF adjustment programme — the sixth review was recently passed successfully — a ‘No’ to the referendum could compromise Ireland’s access to ESM funding should a second loan programme be required. Although a second referendum is a theoretical possibility (Ireland has a history of rejecting EU referenda before accepting), taking away the safety net could be a significant blow to Irish bonds.

June

  • 6 June: ECB Governing Council meeting, followed by interest rate announcement and news conference.
  • 6 June: Portugal auction. Bills.
  • 7 June: Spain auction. Bonds.
  • 10 June: French legislative election (first round). Elections to entirely renew the deputies in the National Assembly (lower house of parliament). A risk is that the socialist party alone fails to secure an absolute majority and has to depend on the support of the radical left, which could push to try to transform what we hold for pure campaign rhetoric in actual legislation. However, it would be wrong to simply replicate Melanchon’s score in the first round of the presidential election into the number of deputies the radical left would secure, as the “personal factor” was important in Melanchon’s strong performance and as the “two  rounds” majority system of the parliamentary election should favour the socialists.
  • 12 June: Greece auction. Bills.
  • 13 June: Italy auction. Bills.
  • 14 June: Italy auction. Bonds
  • 17 June: French legislative election (second round) See 10 June entry
  • Mid-June: European Commission proposals on failed banks. The EC is due to present proposals for a bank crisis resolution scheme, potentially including plans for creditor writedowns, before the G20 leaders’ summit on 18-19 June. The proposals  being worked on have been reported not to directly involve the euro zone’s EFSF and ESM funds.
  • 18-19 June: G20 Leaders Summit, in Los Cabos, Mexico. Gathering of the leaders of the world’s twenty biggest economies. European Commission’s plan to resolve failed European banks among the issued to be discussed (see the entry above).
  • 19 June: Spain auction. Bills.
  • 19 June: Greece auction. Bills.
  • 21 June: Spain auction. Bonds.
  • 21-22 June: Eurogroup and ECOFIN finance ministers meetings.
  • 26 June: Spain auction. Bills.
  • 26 June: Italy auction. Bonds
  • 27 June: Italy auction. Bills.
  • 28 June: Italy auction. Bonds.
  • 28-29 June: European Council meeting. This is the meeting of the EU heads of state and government.

And a global debt issuance calendar for the next two weeks:

 

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Sun, 05/06/2012 - 20:14 | 2402053 GetSome
GetSome's picture

It's been a busy Sunday for the Tylers

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 20:17 | 2402061 maxmad
maxmad's picture

Looks like 2 failed bond auctions by May 8th!!!

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 20:26 | 2402085 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Bills are easy, bonds are trickier.

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 20:49 | 2402151 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

May 12 2012 Fukashima reactor 4 implodes.

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 22:02 | 2402316 THX 1178
THX 1178's picture

Go on...

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 22:26 | 2402348 flacon
flacon's picture

May 6th FLASH CRASH. 

 

Video courtesy of Chris Martenson:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WmpNTtQu8E4

 

 

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 22:38 | 2402376 BoNeSxxx
BoNeSxxx's picture

On the + side, crude is down below $100...

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 22:10 | 2402317 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Always with the negative waves.

Why would anybody worry for even a moment that 135 tons of exposed nuclear fuel on the 4th floor of an earthquake, tsunami and explosion damaged building should be a concern?

It’s still up there 50 or 60 feet or so in the air after all of that. Heck, it would probably take a 5.0, 6.0 or better shaker to bring that all down into an uncontrolled, seething perpetual pile of poisonous plasma that would wreck half the country- and what are the chances of anything like that happening there?

I’d rest a little easier though if they’d just let the WTC 7 building inspection crew check the place out.

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 22:13 | 2402332 tempo
tempo's picture

Even with all the hand waving and talk of "black swans", there is no doubt the world economies are much better off today with the 2008+ central banker stimulus. No one can explain how we can avoid a world wide depression w/o more stimulus by the large countries central bankers. This will happen because the alternative is "tanks in the streets" in every major city/country. Buy great international branded companies when they go on sale next week and watch for new highs later this year.

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 22:32 | 2402362 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

That's a good one!

 

Can someone please bring back the Black Hand and shoot some Archduke or equivalent, already? 

Things are just going too smoothly right now, with everyone cooking the books and all....

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 20:45 | 2402142 CryingBear
CryingBear's picture

BILLS MAKE STOCK MARKETS GO UP. BONDS ARE THE ONES THAT FAIL.

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 21:05 | 2402184 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Big sell-off happening in Asia right now.  Anything with exposure to the Euro is getting hammered.

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 21:22 | 2402215 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Houston, we have a problem. 

 

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 22:02 | 2402314 macholatte
Sun, 05/06/2012 - 21:23 | 2402219 nmewn
nmewn's picture

+5...a resounding thud.

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 21:03 | 2402180 old naughty
old naughty's picture

Repeat...leading up to the big reset.

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 22:06 | 2402322 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Merry Tyler More.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 03:17 | 2402652 jmcaule4
jmcaule4's picture

S&P 500 timing system returns 289.81% over the past five years.

http://jmcaule-whatimlookingatrightnow.blogspot.ca/

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 20:18 | 2402059 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Cat's out of the bag. All voters know Austerity is dead and will demand growth.

Remember, Chaos is a Greek word...

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 20:32 | 2402106 Hulk
Hulk's picture

I love it,  Austerity is dead. And the freebies come from where ???

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 21:14 | 2402199 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Wassa Matta, you don't believe in printing a little extra... for growth?

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 21:33 | 2402261 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Where's my personal windmill?...my solar panels?...my own 100k "green" sport car!!!

Dammit, I want answers from the crony elites, not more unicorn's with diarrhea shitting skittles!!!...lol.

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 21:45 | 2402289 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Will you settle for a boxwood stove, an axe, and a tree stump cut at just the right height???

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 22:23 | 2402344 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Seems like we'll have to ;-)

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 20:18 | 2402064 Nothing To See Here
Nothing To See Here's picture

"It's all priced in"
- W . Buffet

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 20:20 | 2402068 l1b3rty
l1b3rty's picture

http://silvervigilante.com

Precious metals are down early in the Sunday overnight after a turbulent end of the week for the S&P 500 futures. There is broad overhead resistance at the 1350-1400 price level, much like there was in August 2011, when a big sell off sent stocks down towards 1100. This is a price level at which commercial hedgers went very long the stock market and rode this current 6-10 month stock market rise. Currently they are even, neither long nor short. The following month, September, saw gold break its record price in dollars at $1920.

In a broad selloff the nearest resistance is the 1100-1200 level but this thing could fall down to 700 over the course of a few days if not fewer. Once again silver edging towards the $30 price level, through which it broke last week experiencing resistance at $29.80. In early overnight trading, the metal is again pushing down towards the $30 price level, but obviously this number holds considerable resistance.

On Friday, silver rallied late to close the week shy of $30.50, which considering the near-term price action was optimistic. The cartel did not have much success pushing the metal below $30 except for the thin trading of the early session Thursday of last week.  Silver is modestly lower this Sunday currently trading at $30.11, and provided the stock market does not see a huge selloff, it should prove to be the toughest market on silver, as the near-term trend in busier trading sessions would be for silver target $31.50.

Commercial hedgers have lightened up massively on their silver short position, similar to their position of September 2011 when they took the opportunity of a drop from shy of $40 to $26.00 to lighten their shorts and go…less short. Right now they are approximately 100 million ounces of silver short, opposed to their often 250 million ounce short position.

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 20:22 | 2402070 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Complete calendar of events, USSA

 

Monday: American Idol

Tuesday: Indian pattern with tone

Wedneday:  Survivor

Thursday: Dancing with the stars

Friday: Shark Tank (pretty good actually)

Saturday: This old House, COPS

Sunday: Sunday mystery movie, Colombo

 

JULY  1-7   County fair-Blue Ribbon Judging and fireworks...

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 20:47 | 2402145 LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

This weeks episode of Columbo is Murder by the book directed by Mr. Jaws himself Steven Spielberg 

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 21:21 | 2402213 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

What nobody's watching the Voice?

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 20:23 | 2402071 NemoDeNovo
NemoDeNovo's picture

Here comes the Summer of Rage 3.0 the return of the Human[s].

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 20:25 | 2402076 Joe The Plumber
Joe The Plumber's picture

I thought greece had a big international covenant bond payment due may 15? Was hoping for some fireworks.

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 20:25 | 2402081 jmcaule4
jmcaule4's picture

Anit-austerity governments and it's implication for future money printing in the Eurozone. 

http://jmcaule-whatimlookingatrightnow.blogspot.ca/

Alf Fields, King World News + More!

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 20:27 | 2402091 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Well, isn't it time for Spain to lose its leaders?  This summer sounds about right.  

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 20:28 | 2402092 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Every 4 or 5 months you get a Sunday night like this where everyone sees everything going up in flames. By the end of the week the noise has died down and everyone on here hunkers down again. It's always interesting to see how they can keep the balls in the air for another week.

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 20:32 | 2402111 Hulk
Hulk's picture

One day we are going to wake up and all the balls will be on the ground and trampled by elephants...

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 21:15 | 2402201 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Good call, but this is a very special Sunday night in that it follows the catastrophic job report AND the 10 yr Treasury this moment is trading at 1.84%.

Hard for Ben to need to "hold rates down by buying bonds" when he sees 1.84% and the election nears, which would expose him to accusations of influence attempts on that election.

Make no mistake about this, EVERY Fed chairman cares more about remaining independent of Congressional management than he cares about anything else.  Every day that passes makes QE less likely before election day.

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 20:38 | 2402125 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I have no charts and barely the memory to back it up but I vaguely remember late last summer watching the Nasdaq lose a100pts and the dow dropping 400 an several days. I could swear I remember gold being up $20 on those days.

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 20:44 | 2402138 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

Jean Claude Trichet, former President of ECB, when asked to comment on the next two months European calendar said "Quoi? Je m'inquiète?" (What, me worry?). Trichet was questioned as he left a supermarche with two months supply of popcorn and a big smile on his face.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0c/Jean-Claude_Tri...

 

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 21:02 | 2402177 FranSix
FranSix's picture

Norway's sovereign wealth fund aught to be seriously taking delivery of the physical:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-04/norway-dumps-ireland-portugal-bonds-amid-euro-challenges-1-.html

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 21:06 | 2402187 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Mark Feldstein on CNBS last week:

"...I think the real danger is that this is a bubble in the stock market created by low long-term interest rates that the Fed has engineered. The danger is, like all bubbles, it bursts at some point. Remember, Ben Bernanke told us in the summer of 2010 that he was going to do QE2 and then ultimately they did Operation Twist. The purpose of that was to make long-term bonds less attractive so that investors would buy into the stock market. That would raise wealth and higher wealth would lead to more consumption. It helped in the fourth quarter of 2010 and maybe that is what is helping to drive consumption during the first quarter of this year. But the danger is you get a market that is not with the reality of what is happening in the economy, which is, as I said a moment ago, is really not very good at all."

So I take it that it wouldn't be "very good at all" to do such on a global scale either.

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 22:38 | 2402375 UGrev
UGrev's picture

There's two sides to this story. 

the Left: BUY APPLE PRODUCTS!! because we have to be cool, hip socialistas.. 

the Right: BUY GUNS!! for obvious reasons.. 

And there's your reality.. 

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 21:08 | 2402188 Lokking4AnEdge
Lokking4AnEdge's picture

Excellent job Tyler

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 21:08 | 2402192 valley chick
valley chick's picture

yes it could be interesting through summer and fall....

http://ncrenegade.com/editorial/we-are-preparing-for-massive-civil-war-says-dhs-informant/

 

 

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 21:24 | 2402228 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Irony of the day: In the same week as "The Woodstock of Capitlism" with guru Warren, we get the Greece and France elections. 

Of course I think when Carla Bruni left Sarko it was all over 

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 21:57 | 2402309 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Very unscientific but we visited my cousin and her husband Saturday evening and he was laid off for a week. He has worked at this large plant 19 years and the line he works on has never been shut down. I asked him why it was down now and he said it's never been this slow since he started. Nobody is ordering.  Although he's not worried about being laid off permanently because the union allows him to bump less senior workers, many are worried. We went to Walmart later to pick up a couple things and had the store virtually to ourselves...a super Walmart opened 24 hours on an early Saturday evening.  No lines at the few checkouts open and no large event in our area that would account for a lack of shoppers. Very strange. Like I said...a very unscientific poll and a small drop in an ocean. Any one else noticing a drop off where there normally isn't?

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 22:47 | 2402394 UGrev
UGrev's picture

Fuck yeah.. I tell you where I see an increase in shopping; in the grocery stores. You go to a super walmart on the weekend here and people are cruising the food isles and the other parts of the store are devoid of people buying anything of entertainment value. 

You walk into a Wegmans, and you're in there for 2 hours min. You walk into a walmart, you can get your shit and get out in 10 unless you're buying food. 

People are buying shit they need to survive.. that's what I see. And to be quite honest, our region is typically in an isloated, buffer zone. When the national economy goes tits up, we usually don't feel it. Though, the same is true in the opposite direction, which sucks.. but hey, I'd rather take it slow than a big boom and bust. But to have THIS area see houses going up left and right... businesses closing all over the place (my wife has helped them close them).. yeah, bro.. it's getting tight out there. 

Next up, when people can't buy the food.. we'll see some fireworks. 

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 23:59 | 2402509 Lednbrass
Lednbrass's picture

Also an unscientific anecdote but recently had a conversation with somone who works for a staffing agency that handles multiple mid to large size manufacturers, in the course of the conversation I was told that across the board they are releasing temps due to a lack of business. It had me wondering if the temporary jobs propping up the Bureau of Lies and Statistics numbers arent beginning to evaporate.

Of course, they will just be deemed to have left the workforce (who knew so many Americans only worked for fun?) and no doubt unemployment will drop officially but it certainly doesnt help in the real world.

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 22:06 | 2402320 q99x2
q99x2's picture

What the hecks the big deal. Greece was bailed out. Machines are on red alert with algos reving. BTFD. We've a FB put right around the corner.

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 22:44 | 2402383 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

6 May Bernanke takes a dump, a shower, and no shave.

7 May Bernanke has the salmon for lunch.

8 May Bernanke notices a fly in his office and calls security.

9 May Bernanke goes to bed wearing his green silk jammies.

 

There is no market, there is only the bernank.

Sun, 05/06/2012 - 23:08 | 2402434 zkay
zkay's picture

Don't know why, but "8 May Bernanke notices a fly in his office and calls security." had me head down on the desk laughing for about two minutes. Thanks for that.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 00:44 | 2402540 Psyman
Psyman's picture

You're closer to the truth with your humor than 99.99% of the rest with their deep analysis.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 00:43 | 2402539 Psyman
Psyman's picture

All irrelevant in the face of the New World Order.

 

That's what you people, you analysts, you rational thinkers, fail to grasp - we are in a post-rational world.  The rules mean nothing.  The fundamentals mean nothing.  All that matters is central planning by the elites beyind the New World Order.

 

Europe cannot fail, because it is the cornerstone of the New World Order.

 

The end.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 01:30 | 2402588 Loukanika the r...
Loukanika the riot dog's picture

What about another Greek election in four weeks time.

Shit that was fun let's do it again next month....... Oh Fuck we are

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 03:16 | 2402653 jmcaule4
jmcaule4's picture

S&P 500 timing system returns 289.81% over the past five years.

http://jmcaule-whatimlookingatrightnow.blogspot.ca/

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!