This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Confidence Drops As Consumers Brace For Surge In Inflation
Consumer Confidence fell for only the second time since this unerring rally began and basically met expectations but it is under the covers that is concerning. Expectations for high inflation in the next six months has reached its highest level in six months jumping considerably from the previous month. Combine this with the overall drop in the expectations subindex of the consumer confidence index which fell for the first time in 5 months and all is not well in the 'stocks are going up so we are all doing great and the economy must be awesome'-transmission mechanism. On top of this wonderful news, the Richmond Fed missed expectations (with its biggest miss in 10 months) - taking us to 15 of 17 (removing the consumer confidence and S&P Case Shiller meets) missed economic data prints now. 7 of the 9 subindices of the Richmond Fed index dropped precipitously with only wages rising notably (more inflation?) even as 'number of employees' slumped by more than half and expectations for 'number of employees' in six months fell to its lowest since September. It would appear that higher gas prices are much more of a detrimental impact on the individual's confidence than a rising equity market is a boost - whocouldanode?
Consumer Confidence Expectations Sub-Index fell for the first time in 5 months...
and it would appear consumer confidence has peaked for this cycle (as Gas Prices crush the hopes and dreams of every Central Banker's Animal Spirits)...
(h/t John Lohman)
»
- 9462 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Muppets bitchez
Wait for Israel-Iran, then you will see consumer confidence really go down the crapper.....
Gardenz, bitchez
Black swans travel in flocks these days.
Number 156
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405270230463640457729542178735449...
The Index of Silly Economic IndicatorsThe other day, I read that the number of Americans going to restaurants with service by a waiter just surpassed the number patronizing fast-food joints. Supposedly, this means that the U.S. economy is reviving. Another report said that people are getting their hair cut more often, which is another sure sign that the economy is emerging from the doldrums.
Getty ImagesBars and pizza parlors don't signal a boom. More liposuction just might.
These are dandy little indicators of economic revival, as are such trends as an uptick in the volume of liposuction procedures, or visits to dry cleaners, or purchases of vintage meerschaum pipes. Other subtle indicators that things might be on the upswing include ticket sales to Thompson Twins tribute-band reunions, non-discounted subscriptions to magazines like Ukulele Aficionado and Harrisburg by Night, and the number of people getting hammered on Tuesday nights, instead of the usual weekend binges. But indicators like these all seem just a bit too cute.
What I'd like to see are a few more tangible signs of economic revival like, say, stores that have been boarded up for the last two years suddenly reopening for business, or people being able to sell their houses without taking a 60% haircut, or kids whose parents paid $150,000 to send them to college being able to find jobs. Not internships. Not volunteer work or para-something. Actual jobs.
It is always dangerous to base assumptions about the state of the economy on anecdotal information, but in my experience, anecdotal information trumps government statistics any day of the week. I live in a typical small town, with the typical mix of businesses and a typical citizenry. My town is still reeling.
The large store that used to be a bike shop is empty. The space that used to be an optometrist's shop is empty. The ice cream parlor down the street, the one that used to be a Carvel's and then became a Brainfreeze, is gone. The gelato place at the foot of the hill has closed its doors. The massive gourmet shop that used to occupy the center of town has been shuttered for two years, vastly reducing traffic for other merchants. We've got plenty of nail salons and bars and pizza parlors, but that doesn't really suggest a booming economy. And no, the barber shops and hair salons are not turning away customers, either.
There's more. The commercial building where I work has five suites. Over the years, they have been occupied by psychologists and tour promoters and expert numismatists and accountants and software engineers and import-export companies and even a local newspaper. Four of them are now empty. Three of them have been empty for more than two years. The rents are not excessive; one two-room unit lists for $500 a month. Offer $450 and it's yours! There are no takers in sight. The last thriving business in this building was a massage parlor that the cops finally padlocked. Now I'm the only one here. This is one spooky building. This is one spooky economy.
As for jobs, forget it. Lots of my friends' kids are going to law school, because there's no work out there. Others are going to grad school to get an even more useless degree than the one they already have. Everyone is waiting tables, or parking cars, or pinch-hitting as a substitute teacher, or on the prowl for a nonpaying internship. When you hear that a kid with a college degree actually got a job earning more than the minimum wage, it feels like someone just won the Stanley Cup or the Nobel Prize.
So the headlines I want to see aren't "Hair Apparent: Salon Boom Hints at Economic Revival" or "Stick a Fork in It: Restaurant Sales Suggest Recession Is Over," but something more like:
"Signs of Life: Swarthmore Grad Lands Job That Does Not Involve Wearing a Cheap Plastic Vest and a Stupid Cap With a Chicken Perched on Top."
"Mall Parking Lots Filled With Cars; Customers Apparently in Them: Economic Rebound in Offing?"
"Trucks Getting Bought, Houses Getting Sold, Checks Not Bouncing: Good Times May Lie Just Ahead."
Oh, yeah, and one more:
"Deserted Office Buildings Attracting Tenants Not Involved in Criminal Enterprises; Economy May Be Coming Back From the Dead."
The recovery is happening for the only people that matter. Suck it, everybody else; this ain't your economy anymore.
I just came back from Washington DC. There's no recession there. DC and environs are absolutely booming. There are huge office buildings going up everywhere. Real estate is booming, trendy restaurants are booming, $100K Mercedes are everywhere, topless joints are packed, taverns are full, and people in suits talking on cell phones are everywhere. Government dollars at work.
Just look at this fine piece of property that's up for sale:
This is what is so frustrating to me. I saw this non-recession in DC happening 3 years ago and thought "it can't last". I thought eventually the recession would catch up and declining tax receipts would hit home. Apparently I was wrong. When you devalue/counterfeit money like the Fed is doing, the earliest beneficiaries are those that receive the early dollars. Thus, DC and the gov't contractors and gov't employees and all the cronies there are simply rolling in cash and living the high life. Meanwhile the rest of the country get's to suck it. Hard.
I suppose eventually that money may flow out of DC and the overall US economy will recover. But once you learn that the central gov't protects its own with no concern for the masses, then you know you don't live in a democracy practicing capitalism, you live in a fascist state with an aristocracy. And that is the stuff revolutions are born of.
The imperial capital of the American police state is booming. You folks can't even imagine from the sounds of it. This is a golden age which shall never end for the politicians and their minions.
A 6 figure job for every negro and a Mercedes or Escalade in every drive way. High end real estate market in the D.C. area is off the chain. After all, when every family (except illegals and other people that haven't figured out a way to feast upon the federal government's largess) makes $200,000+ a year it's easy to afford a $700,00 McMansion 30 miles from the city. And putting gas in the Hummer is no biggy.
D.C. has been going gangbusters the whole time. It never skipped a beat.
If you can't get a $30 an hour job in the D.C. area you must be a crippled retard with felony rap sheet.
Walk into Tyson's Corner or Tyson's II on a Friday night and tell me we're in a recession. You'll see the children of GS employees everywhere, walking around with iPhones and expensive clothes from stores with pretentious names. Not a care in teh world.
A Mercedes or BMW in every ($500,000+ town house, anywhere near D.C.) drive way, and an iPhone in every pocket. The imperial capital is living in gilded opulence.
Fuck it... I'm taking the 'other side' of this argument and calling a 'temporary TOP' on inflation expectations (I'll cite my reasons ~ & you all can junk away)...
1. This is the same bullshit as in 2008 (pre-China 'Olympics')... Not that the 'olympics' really had anything to do with it, but the INFLATION (from the market top in late 2007, thru the summer of 2008) was largely due to bets being made on crude, PM's, & other commodities, largely because equities were weak & the HOPE for the 'China miracle'... Toss in 'candidate' Obama & you get the picture... EVERYONE STILL BELIEVED IN ORGANIC GROWTH...
2. That bubble was popped when credit bubble popped & all the de-leveraging occurred... Interestingly enough, even though gold, crude, & other commodities were hit very hard, they were the FIRST thing to bottom after the Lehman crisis (gold in around November 2008 vs. S&P in March '09, only AFTER they promised to bail out the banks)
So while I share the idea that we will continue to see price inflation (which is tantamount only to fiat devaluation)... I'd say that in the short term, there's more of a likelihood to see somewhat of a dive across the board (if only to shake out the weak hands)... Much the same as 2008, where the 'early ins' in the commodity space in late 2007 were saying "sold to you" to the ones who got on the inflation train late... The only difference was, the INFLATION expectation back then was hope for 'growth', where the inflation now is due to money printing...
By 'short term', I mean starting, perhaps, in May... FWIW ~ I have a price target on the S&P of around 1470's, then I have a high likelihood of a 'flash crash' type even to happen early May... Those are WILD GUESSES, but the broader idea I have is that there will be some kind of shakeout of INFLATION before the elections... The REAL inflation won't start until after the elections...
~ Junk away
Everyone has an excuse for why gold was at already back all time highs when stocks were bottoming. If you had tried to buy physical gold or silver during that period, you would know there was almost nothing available and premiums were huge. Deflation kills the system as quickly as inflation.
@Quin
I want to be clear that despite how my statement reads, I'm not trying to make any direct correlations (2008)...
I'm more saying this... When I start reading HEADLINE NEWS about 'peeps' starting to batten down the hatches on the inflationary front, oftentimes that's the signal for the paper pushing fucknuts on Wall Street to engineer something where they can dump their accumulated positions at a high price, then buy them back lower...
It shouldn't be hard for people on this blog to understang that... I had to toss in the 2008 references to give the theory some kind of backdrop... Otherwise I'm just sitting here following along with the sheep... I'm ALL IN on the inflation train... But it still tends to ebb and flow... We may be on the verge of a very short EBB window here (& frankly, that window may not last very long)... IMO ~ the more that potential window gets pushed, timewise, towards the November elections, the shorter & more violent it will be...
Everyone has their POV... That's mine...
Here's another way of looking at it... Use the following link...
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
(or use whatever 'charting' method you prefer)... Follow the link & then go to the crude, or silver charts... Be sure to toggle to the WEEKLY candlestick views...
All you have to see are the two times (in 2011) that both crude & silver received weekly smackdowns... These types of smackdowns are a simple way to buy more time... & quite frankly, not a lot of time is left between now & the elections... It's hard for me to imagine that:
1. with the 'difficulty' rising inflation presents an incumbent POTUS of being re-elected
2. with 'paper profits' to be made (for the insiders) in wrongfooting J6P, again
This won't be entertained...
I'd say that as soon as Romney appears to have solidified the last delegate to win him the nomination, the plug will be pulled on the market (which will have a short half-life in terms of gold prices tanking, but enough to put inflation on the back burner thru November)...
1) The logistics obstacles for Israel to execute an attack are too large to justify given that there are no targets to be hit that would stop Iran's nuclear program. Iran spread them all out. Hitting a few will not slow them down.
2) There is not going to be significant inflation. Food is going to be hugely expensive because oil is, but rents are going to stagnate and rents represent more of a US monthly household budget than anything else. They will stagnate as households continue to consolidate, with children moving in with parents and as outright house prices continue to fall. As they fall, potential buyers who intend to be landlords don't need increased rent to achieve a given % return on investment. They will choose instead to screen tenants relentlessly for quality, and care far less about rent increases than minimized maintenance or tenant created damage. That equates to low or no inflation. In inflation, rent is everything (for the US). Other countries this is not so. Rent is less of the monthly household budget elsewhere.
3) Fiscal destimulus looming on January 1 is overwhelming.
4) Oil scarcity precludes growth, likely forever. As scarcity choked down on growth, leverage was imposed on society to try to amplify what little growth there could be. But that no longer can work as that scarcity in the path of relentless global population rise crushes all futures.
my roomate's sister makes $85 hourly on the computer. She has been fired from work for 6 months but last month her paycheck was $16158 just working on the computer for a few hours. Read more here ..... http://lazyCash9.com
Surge? It looks like a steady rise in Infaltion.
What we gonna see milk at $10 a gallon overnight?
What else can they take out of the CPI so that inflation is always near zero?
SHEEPFUKKER
http://www.financialarmageddon.com/
'The American Economic Model Is Broken'A new survey of U.S. household finances by British research firm Absolute Strategy Research suggests that Americans are not only pooh-poohing the notion that an economic recovery is at hand, they are becoming resigned to the fact that the longer-term outlook isn't all that much better.
A staggering 63% of respondents across the political spectrum feel that the American economic model is broken. Individuals surveyed do not agree that the prevailing paradigm facilitates equal opportunity, or that hard work and skill are rewarded. This grim view of the status quo is also represented in respondents' concerns about fairness and the distribution of wealth: a quarter of those surveyed say the next administration should make closing the gap between the rich and poor a top policy priority, and half want the next administration to make sure the wealthiest Americans pay a “fair share” of taxes. And a mere 20% of those polled believe wealth and income is distributed fairly.
This survey also highlights the extent to which Americans are dissatisfied with those responsible for managing the American economy. Respondents across the political spectrum agree that policymakers have not done a good job in handling the economy over the last year, and that a focus on stimulating economic growth should be the top priority for the next administration. Republicans and Independents are the most critical of economic policymakers, but two thirds of Democrats are also critical of the handling of the economy.
...
Respondents across all age groups worry that their children will face "worse" standards of living than they currently enjoy, reflecting deep-seated anxieties about the economy, unemployment, inflation and debt burdens. More than 40% of those polled believe that the children of their generation will have a lower standard of living when they are their age.
Ben Bernank was driving down a country lane and noticed a sheep caught in the fence. No one seemed to be around so he pulled over to help the creature.....
"whocouldanode" well said....
WHAT?! PEOPLE AREN'T CONFIDENT?!!!!
NAMES!!!
I WANT NAMES!!!!
WE'LL TEACH THEM CONFIDENCE!!
Citizens must report all dissident communication to the following site.
Only by working together can we create "an economy built to last"
https://my.barackobama.com/page/s/report-an-attack
Not yet. First we must uncover the torches and sharpen the pitchforks.
The final kick must be while we are on the ground, before the sheeple awaken.
Bernard Bernanke
Barrack Hussein Obama
Joe Biden
Jon Corzine
Nancy Pelozi
Harry Reid
Cass Sunstein
Oh f it. the list is too long.
they're the Monarchy... they do whatever they please.
Who is "Bernard Bernanke"? Ben's brother? Cousin?
Thou shall never lose confidence in central planning or the FED!
"Expectations for high inflation in the next six months has reached its highest level in six months jumping considerably from the previous month."
The predictive programming is working nicely I see.
Go to Warp 8 Mr. Sulu.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hikaru_Sulu
but captain, the engines cannae' take it!
no problem, we'll just make up a new law of physics so they can
Wait, just beam me up Scotty, hurry
Fascinating.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Fc3MQ-NoGw4/TOqk7lXfFvI/AAAAAAAAGSg/gjydfkwDQa0/s1600/transporter.jpg
The Economy. He's dead Jim.
SPR
Too much crap, sorry.
Mikey is without question telegraphing how they are to spin the "news"
Just great, I expect to be Fat and Broke now. What an end game.
no link to: Expectations for high inflation in the next six months has reached its highest level in six months?
Inflation? There is no inflation. Damn. These containers at the supermarket are shrinking! WTF!
And i was beginning to think i was going crazy, my wife does not believe me. They are shrinking and the Levis i buy today are way thinner than they used to be. Pretty soon we will be buying empty boxes and paper pants but at least it will still cost the same
soon you will be buying a big box filled with confetti and a (SNAP) Food Voucher inside
Soon u will b paying for air... and they wont accept " Federal Reserve Confidence Notes".... Silver is so shinny......
The paper towels I buy look like toilet paper rolls, they have shrank so much. Is David Copperfield working in retail?
Yeah, I used to drive by the Levi's plant in San Antone years ago, but that was closed and outsourced to another 3rd world sweatshop.
Just buy the off-brands nowadays, the quality you used to get in Levis left the building.
How's that NAFTA deal working for everyone?
Fuckers.
Diamond Gusset Jeans
http://www.gussetclothing.com/
USA
Bernanke better raise rates soon or we won't be able to raise them again.
..Bernanke and the FED to the rescue.
No no no, they are just applying for more credit cards so they can get the next Iturd. Bullish.
Oh, inflation will be big. Food, oil and the commodities. Get ready for the inflation Tsunami from Bernankie's huge QEing.
The only inflation Bernanke sees is when he fires up his penis pump.
And Bloomberg getting like the idiot channel reporting that confidence near highs. I think Mayor Bloomberg is now writing all their script.
87 octane hit $3.95 here yesterday.
just bought 385 pounds of grain to make beer, but if TSHTF I'll have plenty of porridge to eat.
Or you'll have 3 bears at our door goldilocks
it'll take more bears than that with the 75 JHPs that were also recently purchased, along with speed loaders.
That's more than one week's worth of food!
You're one of those terrorist hoarders!
Meh, we've had 87-o at $4.25+ for over a week in Chi-town (one of King Hussein's holy cities to boot). On a recent trip to the frozen north, I enjoyed pretending that C$1.10/liter was just like the old US$ days.
Expectations for high inflation? We are experiencing high inflation presently and the uninformed masses are just now beginning to wake up to the fact that their currency is being systematically destroyed in an attempt to keep the game going for as long as possible. "Consumers" in my neck of the woods (S. Fla.) lost confidence a while ago.
that their currency is being systematically destroyed in an attempt to keep the game going for as long as possible
I would guess that 95% of the so called consumers have no idea what you just said..
This unfortunately is the sad, sad truth of it all.
Everyone in my office has been complaining how gas prices are killing them. I asked a bunch of them why they think gas prices are rising and every single one of them said "There is a shortage of oil" or "We use too much oil". When I told them that it was directly related to the devaluation of the dollar they all stared like I was purple or had some sort of mental breakdown.
People simply don't understand what's going on and I personally don't believe that will change even when they start lighting their torches to storm the mansions.
...but...but, the dollah bill is still worth a buck isn't it?
I just don't understand why oil costs so much.
/sarc
Remember when the "deflationistas" were looking so wise (at least for a couple of deflationary months?)
Hitler wrote Mein Kampf outlining his plans, yet some were still surprised when he did what he said he would do.
THE Bernank gave his "helicopter speech"...yet some were still surprised when he did what he said he would do.
"QE TO INFINITY...BITCHEZ!"--Ben
Do not forget there are two parts to the equation. Just because prices rise does not mean people will/can pay for them. What you may find is a squeeze in margins. Less profits or even companies forced to sell at a loss.
Right now the economy is in a recession - that means that the average person is having a difficult time. When the wealthy start seeing a significant drop in their portfolio we will be in a depression.
The wolf is at the door, and he's hungry.
Many more people have lost faith in the government and the Fed in the last few years. This is not good news for the Powerz that be. They are losing their control, and may take drastic step(e.g. martial law) in the near future. Why do you think Obama's wife and kids take a vacation every month? They want to experience things before the s** hits the fan.
Sucks when you have to get true inflation info off of alternative, independent media.
Hooray for bloggers.
Barry X has a long line of msm reporters outside his office every day vying for a chance to suck his schlong.
Margin calls are a comin'...
If I do my math right that means of 19 economic data prints, 2 were "beats" and 2 were "meets." There's a joke in there somewhere. I'm not saying this is it, but maybe something like this:
Q: What did the S&P Case Shiller say to the Philly Fed?
A: You beat my meet.
We're living in a dropping world...
ON A LONG ENOUGH TIMELINE, WOMANS TITS DROP TILL THE FLOAT JUST OVER THE TARMAC
sad....
gravity... A BITCH!
New MIT Survey is out and shows inflation tilting back up.
http://bpp.mit.edu/usa/
I'm very confident, we are all f*cked.
Time to start a SHTF pool.
1oz of gold per pick.
I take October 2012.
Don't think Obumney or the Chairsatan can hold this off any longer than
that.
Define "SHTF."
you won't have to be told when you see it!
Confidence so important.
Amazon, Fortune 500) earned $177 million, or 38 cents per share for the holiday quarter that ended December 31 -- more than double the 17 cents per share that analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had forecast.
.38 cents and the stock is at 206. Now That is confidence. Beyond words all, beyond words.
Inflation in things you need like food (good food) and deflation in shit like 3D TVs. The price of the turkey sausage I buy went from $2.99 to $3.99 per pack overnight. Junk food is as low as it's ever been though.
THANK GOD FOR PINK SLIME!
Companies are raising prices everywhere and people are charging it. Eateries have raised their prices several times. Inflation is here. The government and Fed don't want to acknowledge it.
Just in case it matters, I'm using IFurnance, IElectron at home and IDrive to work with ICar burning IGas and have unlimited IEnergy so IAmConfident.
Is there an ap for that?
OT: PM option expiry flash crash for the next hour and 10 min.
Hope the bots have fun playing with themselves.
I'm confident. I think my stocks in companies building drone parts for the government and locking gas caps for the consumer market will both be booming in the near future...
The government will just factor out all inflation that affects the average people, and voila -- no inflation! So no cost of living raises, no wage increases, average Joe gets the high hard one, and the criminal elites parties like there is no tomorrow.
Shit there goes my garage sale this weekend---damn those consumers.
Sheepf-r, They are doing better than "taking things out of the CPI." They are adjusting allocations almost monthly, increasing the moronic "faster electronics is deflation (although the product costs more)" and trading "core" products. And now the push is on to include falling home prices since that would really knock the percent lower. Of course, most folks don't consider a home purchase as part of their everyday (or every year) expenditure.