This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Confused By The Market? Here Is What The Smart Money Is Doing

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Want to get into the head of a hedge fund manager, and see how they view the market: why just buy Apple of course, however good luck explaining to your LPs why you deserve 2 and 20 for "active asset management" aka just following the herd into the biggest hedge fund hotel in history (for at least 216 hedge funds it may be a tough sell). So for everyone else, Goldman's David Kostin (who still has a 1250 year end S&P target - the definitive indicator to sell everything will be when he too gives up) has compiled the data in all the just released 13Fs and has summarized the results as follows...

From Goldman

Our most recent Hedge Fund Trend Monitor report analyzed 674 hedge funds with $1.1 trillion of gross equity positions consisting of $715 billion of long single-stock and ETF equity assets and an estimated $383 billion of short single-stock and ETF positions. We have published our Hedge Fund Trend Monitor quarterly for the past six years and analyzed constituent-level portfolio holdings of US hedge funds since 2001. The current report focuses on hedge fund positions at the start of 1Q 2012 and is based on 13-F filings as of February 15, 2012. We highlight 7 conclusions:

1. The typical hedge fund operates 46% net long versus 36% in 3Q 2011. Aggregate net exposure equals $332 billion. We estimate 17% of short positioning is conducted via ETFs with 13% occurring at the index level.

2. Combining long and short position data, hedge funds have the greatest net portfolio exposure to Information Technology (21%), Consumer Discretionary (20%), and Energy (14%). Hedge funds are not benchmarked but relative to the Russell 3000 universe they are 800 bp overweight Consumer Discretionary (20% vs. 12%) and 750 bp underweight Consumer Staples (3.5% vs. 11.0%). Net exposure rose in every sector in 4Q.

3. Turnover of all hedge fund holdings averaged just 28% during 4Q 2011, an all time low. The top quartile of positions (largest holdings)  turned over just 14% while the bottom-quartile (smallest positions) turned over 41%. Since 2001, quarterly turnover of fund positions averaged 35%, peaking in 4Q 2008 at 45% but falling steadily since. Turnover fell in 4Q in all sectors.

4. Hedge fund returns are highly dependent on the performance of a few key stocks. The typical hedge fund has an average of 64% of its long equity assets invested in its 10 largest positions compared with 34% for the typical large-cap mutual fund, 18% for a small-cap mutual fund, 20% for the S&P 500 and just 2% for the Russell 2000 index.

5. Apple (AAPL) matters. One out of five long/short hedge funds has AAPL among its ten largest long positions and approximately 30% of  hedge funds own at least one share of AAPL. When it ranks among the top ten holdings, AAPL represents an average of 8% of single-stock long equity exposure. In aggregate, hedge funds own only 4% of AAPL equity cap. The average hedge fund AAPL position equals 1.6%, given 70% of funds own no AAPL.

6. Five stocks have been in our VIP basket since inception in 2007 (18 quarters). AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, QCOM, and CVS have ranked among fundamentally-driven hedge funds’ top 10 holdings for more than 5 years. AAPL (+195%), QCOM (63%) and CVS (12%) outperformed the S&P 500 return of 4% during the same period. MSFT (-4%) and GOOG (-8%) lagged.

7. Turnover for the VIP basket in 4Q 2011 was below the historical average. 12 new constituents entered the VIP basket in 4Q 2011 compared with an average quarterly turnover of 17 stocks since 2001. New constituents include the following: BAC, DLPH, ESRX, HAL, HPQ, LMCA, MCD, PXD, PCLN, STX, TYC, and VIAB. The following stocks are no longer in the basket: AMT, ABX, CHK, CMCSA, CCI, EMC, EXPE, HES, M, ORCL, PG, and WLP. Exhibit 50 on page 17 contains a list of all 50 current constituents in our VIP basket.

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Sun, 02/26/2012 - 14:35 | 2198206 wrs1
wrs1's picture

Wow and I am short AAPL, hope the herd gets spooked....

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 14:49 | 2198252 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Either that or it runs of a cliff.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 14:58 | 2198284 SGS
SGS's picture

Less then 3% of hedge funds have Gold and silver exposure, and not to mention not even near in the millions=BUBBLE

Yet AAPL has 216 hedge funds on board (everyone that cares)= No BUBBLE???????????????

Ask yourself: What the fuck is going here?

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 15:09 | 2198306 resurger
resurger's picture

The sheeple are prophets that can predict the top's, dont worry.

+1

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 15:25 | 2198367 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

the irony is, as you transcend to the top, there are many interval pauses, for gravity in it's quirky ways, works with you,... unfortunately the laws of gravity aren't so benign on the descent  

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 18:01 | 2198687 Cadavre
Cadavre's picture

WTF does smart money mean anyhow? And, is a "smart money" basket anything more than PR chumming apathetic retail carp to convert what assets they can still claim into bulk quantities of an insider dump laxative?

BAC? Are we in the emerald city (again)? Pinch me - I'm dreaming!

Did BAC just have GS write a truckload of CDS to short their last CDS "experiment"? You know, just in case a default somewhere has the last batch investment widgets get called?  If they sold them off to their non-prop investment clients, youz gotz to know they did!

Maybe "smart money" is just another way of saying the guide for the guillotine blade was lengthened to give it more "fly" time (better to loose head later than sooner?)!

 

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 09:42 | 2200192 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

 

 

Some Defination here might help:

Working smarter: manager getting a person to work longer hours for the same or less pay.

Smart money:  loading the fund with names the 401k crowd loves to see to feel smarter.

Working money: obsolete term

Smart/smarter: What you beleive until you don't.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 19:49 | 2198976 brettd
brettd's picture

This from the best and brightest at Harvard and MIT?  Yeesh.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 21:59 | 2199242 Dermasolarapate...
Dermasolarapaterraphatrima's picture

Sloppy wet when the AAPL Bubble meets its Pin.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 09:47 | 2200211 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

The day someone prints all the money they toss and dumps into anti liberty, anti freedom, anti human rights organizations, maybe some of the 'too kool' snobs will wake up.  No one was more supper right neo con than this over celibrated rat.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 15:13 | 2198319 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I think you better waited 2 more months to short it

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 15:20 | 2198346 AbelCatalyst
AbelCatalyst's picture

As soon as aapl drops below the 20 DMA I'm with you... Too much momentum for me, but this thing is going to drop like a rock when the recession hits in force - discretionary income is already shrinking and the shiny little toys will be the first to get cut from household budgets... It's a ticking time bomb for sure...

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 18:30 | 2198812 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

I've been saying the same thing since it was at about 380. Haven't shorted it, but kept wanting to. Once I'm convinced it's topped, I'll place my bets, but I'm still waiting.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 00:08 | 2199608 boffster
boffster's picture

Bullshit - you can eat ipads don't you know.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 18:19 | 2198789 ChrisFromMorningside
ChrisFromMorningside's picture

I'm cracking up listening to the two local buffoons on the radio giving "investment advice." Apparently, equities are currently "the opportunity of a lifetime." Apparently, the DJIA should be at 39,000 (I shit you not) if it weren't for this horrible, unexplainable pessimism that is hanging over the country. These guys are shocked, shocked I tell you, that retail investors are pulling their money out of the market instead of jumping at the amazing buying opportunities that are out there. I mean, even Warren Buffet said this was a prime buying opportunity for equities, who are you to argue? You can't make this shit up.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 21:51 | 2199221 bdc63
bdc63's picture

sounds like they are engaging in a little game of pump & dump

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 09:53 | 2200221 blindfaith
blindfaith's picture

 

 

 

where is Suzzie when you need her? 

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 14:37 | 2198214 ZeroIQ
ZeroIQ's picture

Your'e brave there, I think they will suffer in the longterm against GOOG but no way I'm shorting them yet.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 14:39 | 2198221 monopoly
monopoly's picture

The only one of the 5 stocks that I would even consider in my portfolio would be MSFT. But then again, my assets are kinda tied up in real money. Not too much confetti left. I guess my user name says it all. Outside of real "money" this is what it all is. Just crap to play a game with. 

Think I will pass on the top 5. I am not as smart as all those brilliant hedge fund managers. 

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 17:27 | 2198241 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

The smart money???

I review this weekend's Barron's (BIG money) at my blog ("Review of Barron's, Dated 27 February").  Find out what Gov. Chris Christie had to say about American Oligarch Warren Buffett (thx WB7!) and what Jeremy Grantham has to say.  Curious?  gmail me at my name and promise to behave, or just use Google...

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 14:47 | 2198244 WhoMe
WhoMe's picture

 If it wasn't for Apple's 100 Billion in cash I think it would be a great short candidate. What product do they have that many others don't also have? Currently they have a very loyal following plus they put out a great, refined product but again, they are reallly only as good as their next breakthrough product beyond MP3 players, phones and Tablets.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 15:08 | 2198304 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Curious how no one seems to mind their suicide sweatshop over there in China.  I guess it's OK if  it's Apple that doing it.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 15:40 | 2198423 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

"Foxconn" which manufactures for Apple et.el., is a wholly owned Taiwanese Company and happens to be the world's largest electronics manufacturer.

you might be asking yourself,... how is that - when just a decade ago, Taiwan and China were at each others throats? Money!

Think of Japan the arch nemesis of China for literally centuries now its best trading partner? Survival?  

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 16:20 | 2198505 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Evolution in the face of Pax Americana; it makes everybody see more clearly their relative strengths and weaknesses. 

Taiwan was just a wet dream of Mao from Koumintang days that got meaningless after 1978. Now Japan is suffering, they who have created the New young giants of K/T/HK/Si during 70s as alternative local market to a US market protected by Nixon from 71 on.

Thats old hat too, since 90s globalisation, as the US Outsource model took over and enhanced what Japan had started. And Japan junked its economy in hubristic RE play from 90 onwards. So they have no choice too as they have vegetated there where SE Asia and China have ramped up big.

Globalisation will now progress with or without first world leading it, given its internal debt problem. That's the NEW story.  

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 17:56 | 2198728 css1971
css1971's picture

Well now, that all depends on how much it costs to make that there and then transport it to here.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 16:40 | 2198565 DosZap
DosZap's picture

earleflorida

"Foxconn" which manufactures for Apple et.el., is a wholly owned Taiwanese Company and happens to be the world's largest electronics manufacturer.

 

Who is farming out the work to the Chinese.China just announced a 15-20% PAY RAISE for their employees.(Dell,HP, and Apple), are wondering how to eat, and/or PASS Along those price increases to the US consumer, and whoever else buys them.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 08:35 | 2200062 Raging Debate
Raging Debate's picture

China's goal is now domestic consumption. I am seeing regional smaller competitors have lower pricing AND better quality then Wal Mart.

The U.S. policy of sell the country short is about over. Not much left nailed down.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 16:06 | 2198478 swani
swani's picture

@River Road

Yeah, it bothers me, but they are the only ones, in my humble opinion, making beautiful lap tops. Unfortunately, IT is not fashion, so there is very little beauty to choose from and if I have to look at the thing every day, call me superficial, I can't live having to look at something I find ugly. None of the other similar phones or computers that have come out to compete with Apple are doing it for me, they are just ugly derivative copies of the original. Repros are ugly to me too, for different reasons. It's like those fake Marylin Monroes or designer impostors, but, if someone made a better, and original, piece of equipment and promised that people were not committing suicide to make it, I would definitely switch on principle. 

 

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 16:36 | 2198554 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Same here.  I have an Apple too; primarily for the security which so far has not failed me.  I'd pay a few bucks more for my next one though if Apple would get a conscience.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 16:29 | 2198537 DosZap
DosZap's picture

RiverRoad

Curious how no one seems to mind their suicide sweatshop over there in China.  I guess it's OK if  it's Apple that doing it.

 

You left out HP, and DELL.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 16:38 | 2198564 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Thanx.  Fixed it for me.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 15:16 | 2198334 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I've implemented 200 ipad for our salesforce but now i think i've made the wrong decision not to go for the androids. Buildings apps is so much cheaper for a android instead of ipads. Developpers charge a arm and a leg for it and i'd rather make them myself and the only once i can make are for androids.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 17:15 | 2198659 samwell
samwell's picture

Linux OS(ubuntu) is far superior to apple OSX and it is free! and so are all the apps.  Steve jobs basically stole Unix to create NEXT and then called it his own.  typical jobs ego.  it is beyond me why anyone would pay for an OS these days.  

android OS for phones is also vastly superior to iOS crap with its gimmick Siri.!  that was desperation release since they didn't have a 4G phone to compete with android and verizon.  apple has no advantage other than a bunch of inbred yuppy scum have discovered there asthetic appeal and use them as a status symbol among their other yuppy inbred cohorts.  wait till apple products start getting viruses.  then the sheep yuppy scum will jump ship.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 17:49 | 2198715 css1971
css1971's picture

You don't understand. Apple is a religion, not a company. Didn't you knotice the CEO dressing like a minister and giving sermons? Apple users believe they matter because they have an iPad. It makes them relevant as people, validates their self image. Sanctimonious is the word I'd use, the iPad is their bible.

Reggie made the same mistake. You don't fight god by saying that other religion is better, faster, easier. What you can do is point out the hypocrisy, the failings, the mediocrity, the ordinaryness.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 18:59 | 2198883 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Funny thing, I've never owned an Apple product, and as far as I know, my life hasn't suffered any negative effects. And I don't pay attention to whatever kind of electronic gadget anyone else has. I guess I'm old school that way.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 19:46 | 2198969 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

+1

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 03:08 | 2199876 Cadavre
Cadavre's picture

The first time we heard "i-Phone" was a movie titled  "Johnny Mnemonic" back in the mid nineties.

Reacalling, with fuzzy recollection of the pricise history, that the UNIX copyright was paid for and owned by US taxpayers. The shell or prompt language for UNIX was C!  Can't recall which ones, but a lot of the early computer languages were developed by military engineers. Fortran was inented by navy girl. A popular DOS/WIN/UNIX/OX programming tool in it's day, xBase, was written by NASA enigeers.

At any rate, thinking ATT / Bell Labs enjoyed an exclusive license (granted by US taxpayers) for UNIX. Conjecturing on, the terms required that UNIX become public domain when ATT's / Bell Labs' license expired.

Apple's  GUI was handed to them on a silver platter by Xerox. Xerox developed it for their "DataStar" computer. MS cloned or bought Apple and Xerox enginners for their Windows GUI.

Job's gift was not so much that he was an OS or IC guy . He was a salesman. They guy that defined point B (direction enthusiasm momentum) . Aside from his take no prisoners product campaigns, the reason the he was a "visionary" was his gift for aesthetics: simple seamless perfect. He was a master of Feng Shui!

Feeling a tad angry today, ain't ya? Helps on the way! For a real anger boost read this:
Did you read the small print when you downloaded that Smart Phone app (Article says if you watched U-Tube on yur smart phone - U-Tube knows what and when called those 1-900 dollar a minute wild and crazy girl party lines as well as buy and sell text messages you sent your broker!)?

ubuntu if for boiler plate retail coding shops - and, just like Zone Alarm - it calls home - what is ubumtu saying to mom when she picks up the phone (probably the same things smart phones are saying to the U-Tube. And, lest we forget, ubuntu's reliance and relation with Guugle is problematic if the client's / user's privacy is a consideration.

Guys with a real pair prefer compiling UNIX OS from source code they maintain to an off the shelf retail Guugle feeding appliance.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 07:38 | 2200015 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

I don't know anything about all that gobblygook.

I don't have anything from Apple except some sort of movie doohickey on this computer.

I have a Taliban Telephone I bought from some grocery store for $15 dollars and buy 100 minutes about every four months or so.  I use it to make phone calls, and have recently learned I can send text messages so I do that once in a while to people who I know are in working hours.

I'm not enamored by the ultra-technology available, I just want a phone in case I'm broke down on the road somewhere. 

And I get irritated by everyone finger-fucking their phone rather than actually being involved with real people that are physically in their presence.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 15:51 | 2201330 Cadavre
Cadavre's picture

Then you be one of the smart ones (see the article on "reading small print 0 hope you ain't using IE)!

Personally - don't have a cell phone, don't use wifi and wear a main spring watch! 2 nestling's have iMacs - one PC. One iPhone one iPad one Android (the chilln' are spoiled 4 sure!)..

There  may be some redeeming qualities to smart phones. IEE has a white paper that explores smart phone pier to pier app development (no tower required).

Taliban Phone (LOL)

THe reach around to enamour the public with the unwarranted wire taps was the PONZI man would only listen in if the call originated from a known terrorist or a client accessed a known terrorist web portal. Two questions:

1) Where is a copy of the know "terrorist" phone directory.

2) Any zit faced punk working a mall phone kiosk can program a phone to appear to print any phone number and serial required. The US was supposed to handover  keys to the "internet backbone" years ago, but hasn't. And, BTW, the US secret police can spoof any internet DNS their funding drives require.

In 2001 the so called host for the CIA's so called Al KADA was a US ISP called, "Everyones Internet"

EVERYTHING IS A LIE!

 

 

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 14:53 | 2198249 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The collapse of the Fiat Ponzi will be the Black Swan event.  When will it happen?  Who knows.  But the fact that everyone is and will play the game until the end is evidence enough.

Money managers don't want it to end, so they close their eyes and suit up, ask for orders, and cap the day with a few stiff drinks.  Hippie liberals don't want it to end because they just want to retire so they can do yoga in their yurt on their 1.5 acres.  Red neck conservatives just want to go huntin' and drink their beer in peace.  The old folks just want to die already, and hipsters really just don't give a fuck, as long as they can whip out their Macbooks and ask facebook, "who is the farest of them all?"

Of course while Americans are nurishing their egos, Europeans are wondering similar things.  And the Chinese are scratching their heads as to what happened to their fantastic growth model while they eat their plastic peas.  And the Japanese are asking themselves why they have all had migraines for the last year.

Even when any of the former are reminded that fiat currency has no value, they reply, "it doesn't matter, all that matters is that we believe it does."  How old is the average person's emotional IQ nowadays?  5?  If we just believe it won't happen here, it won't is the meme that will go down in the history books.  This culture and this stage of human history will be looked at as the most foolish ever.  It will be asked if we did this delibrately, maybe because we wanted to destroy ourselves in a manic masochistic death cult ritual.

And this meme carries out to the far reaching corners of the society.  The battle between utopeans and peak oilers has reached this point.  Let us consider what would happen if the majority of the world decided to use peak oil thoery (which they have not, as the majority either do not consider it, or do not believe it).  Let's say it was considered.  Would anyone be harmed?  No.  No people would not shut down society, that would be crazy.  Instead we would spend money on alternative energies and try to find the other resources (I am not thinking about governments playing any role in this, btw).  Yet if we all pretend like the world has limitless energy available to us right now, and we are wrong, then shit will hit the fan, and imagine the horror.

Yes, utopeans are the death cult, just as Keynesians are.  Being proavctive will save us.  Doing what we have always done will be the end of this crazy little world.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 15:15 | 2198326 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Like Chuck Prince they're dancing 'til the music stops.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 15:27 | 2198380 Crimedog
Crimedog's picture

Even when any of the former are reminded that fiat currency has no value, they reply, "it doesn't matter, all that matters is that we believe it does."

 

Haha, that's funny because you could say the same about gold.  As long as governments require that we pay taxes in a fiat currency, the fiat currency will have more *real* value than gold.  Gold is nothing but religion, propped up by tradition. 

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 15:36 | 2198411 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Gold is fundamental in technology.  It defines all metrics of the definition of money.  Considering it is money, and technology is absent without it, precious metals have intrinsic value.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 15:50 | 2198452 Crimedog
Crimedog's picture

So gold is the only metal that could be used in technology?  Why not platinum?

My point of view is this - while fiat currency simply is a piece of paper, gold is simply a piece of metal.  However, the religion of "greenbacks" is deeply ingrained on modern society.  The world will never go back to a gold-backed system.  Society reached a level of hyper-growth, both economically and demographically, that needs a fiat system to sustain itself.  I don't envision any scenario where if I would use gold to buy anything in the real economy.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 16:27 | 2198502 Rynak
Rynak's picture

That a currency is gold-backed - or backed by anything real (instead of "potential", "belief", "promise") - does not mean, that one has to pay with the backing asset itself.

Of course, the problem with "trusts" is transparency.

But yeah, you go back to your nominal hypergrowth in alice's wonderland, while reality plunges.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 16:47 | 2198583 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Fine.  Use platinum.  Same cos.  Use silver if you like.  All PMs are finite, and price will increase with demand.

As far as the faith based system, this is exactly what I am focused on.  If I told you I had a unicorn ranch, and you came, and I had painted a bunch of horses pink and strung horns on their heads, your kids might believe me, but if you did, you would be stupid.  This is the Fiat Ponzi:  a Unicorn Ranch.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 17:28 | 2198679 FranSix
FranSix's picture

"All PMs are finite, and price will increase with demand."

Actually, no.  Gold prices advance in interest rate environments that fall behind inflation.  

And gold is only hoarded by central banks for real reasons, not other PMs. 

Central banks accumulate gold through foreign exchange diversification and lease it out as a matter of course. Very few people at all will take direct deilvery as a commodity, thus you can leverage up the paper market for gold and generate a great deal of currency in transaction.

When physical gold is sold directly into the market, say out of mine production or central bank holdings, then you suddenly generate a great deal of capacity to lend.  The price declines temporarily until leverage takes hold about 100X the value of the gold, and off we go again.

That's how the gold market works.

 

 

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 20:12 | 2198996 BoNeSxxx
BoNeSxxx's picture

That is how the gold market works now you mean, right?

I think that when the curtain is pulled back on the fiat system, the gold market may behave in quite a different fashion, no?

That's his point (not to speak for him, of course, he's a big boy)

 

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:31 | 2199514 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1  Excellent point.

That 100 x leverage is going to be a bitch one day soon.  When people start clamoring for their physical ounces they think they own because they have a scrap of paper (or electrons on a hard disc), then the gold market is going to work VERY differently.

It's the "when" part that gets me.  Not the "if."

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 15:43 | 2198428 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Gold is definitely money as far as central bankers are concerned.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 20:20 | 2199046 grid-b-gone
grid-b-gone's picture

If fiat is levered up 10:1 soon after being created, how much do they lever up the gold they lend?

 

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 19:12 | 2198906 stopthejunk1
stopthejunk1's picture

If you don't see the difference in the "faith" required to believe in greenbacks, and the "faith" required to believe (in the same way) in gold then by all means, please hoard dollars.  Don't buy any gold.  If you do, you will only drive up the price.

By the way... explain to me how a currency devaluation would work for those holding gold as money?  How about hyperinflation?  How about bank runs?  Oh... nevermind.

Monetarily, we are Pompeii.  Most of us will be sitting down when we are fried to a crisp.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 15:29 | 2198383 Timmay
Timmay's picture

I think when they look back on this period they will consider what we are all doing now as one world wide religious belief. No different than then sun God Ra, or Zues on Mount Olympus. It takes a matter of "faith" to believe another human being will trade you something "tangible" for a piece of paper. That faith obviously is rooted in the belief that another human will accept or "believes" the same religion you do. We are ALL the greater fools.

It was all a measure of control that we all entered into because inherently I think all humans desire to believe in "something". Apple could be a whole new religion on to itself. Ironic that its followers worship the Icon of an apple with a bite out of it.

Question is, who will be a fiat atheist during the fiat "Inquisition"??

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 15:38 | 2198417 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Actually it's the government shoving "faith" down our throats when we are forced by law to conduct commerce with paper. 

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 15:48 | 2198446 Timmay
Timmay's picture

I agree so long as there are no more religious "revivals" (i.e. Tech bubble, housing bubble, stock market bubble, bailout bubble, welfare checks).

Faith will be "forced" when the masses are no longer convinced in "believing".

How many ZH readers here now KNEW that the system was bullshit even back then but could have cared less so long as they were flipping dotcom stocks or houses and making 50k a month??  This religion is powerful.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 16:51 | 2198595 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

It's always the bankers who cause the dollar denominated bubbles by extending too much credit to whatever.  And maybe we didn't know then that the system was bullshit but thanks to ZH we sure do now. 

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 19:18 | 2198931 stopthejunk1
stopthejunk1's picture

There is no "faith" involved.  It is simply fiat.  Fiat money is the only way that the welfare statists can afford to finance their wars and social programs.  There isn't enough "real money" in the world to pay for those things.  The levels of taxation required would cause widespread revolt.

FDR started the process of killing our money and Nixon finished it.  And Americans slept (or watched TV) through the whole thing.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 20:09 | 2199025 grid-b-gone
grid-b-gone's picture

Good stuff. The 'plastic pea' recession is underway.

So far, the next 2 trillion euro fund is not spiking the ES. Are people finally understanding these news items are not positive? A 2 trillion euro reserve means they know of at least another 2 trillion euros of failure in the pipeline.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 06:40 | 2199974 Cadavre
Cadavre's picture

Yet if we all pretend like the world has limitless energy

The issue is not limitless energy - as long as the sun glows - energy is without limit. Peak oil is a scam.

The problem is limitless tokens of wealth and dumb as nail shabby shiek Wal Mart elite,

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 09:39 | 2200182 Raging Debate
Raging Debate's picture

Hendrix. I used to think about other empires and what lunacy they must have been thinking. Then it dawned on my that there are two basic personality types, positive and negative like a car battery. Further, one group positively or negatively charge progress forward either through pain or pleasure. It's evolution.

What will they be thinking when they look back at today's time period? An accelerated rate of evolution. Now for details the monetary system is the brain of the organism, sending and receiving signal. Success attracts the robber class, they steal for 40 years causing increasing pain, collapse and partial rebirth. Then the cycle of the producer starts for 40 years. Nixon went off gold standard in 1971. In a couple of years we will be back on one for the nexty forty. It will be the cycle of the producer.

666 is geometry. It is a pyramid of a government type which is Monarchy. It lasts 160 years or two human lifespans. Then its a bigger collapse then the 40 year cycle.

If mankind wants to have less pain in evolving, first the people on earth should be asked if want to evolve faster or slower. Slower theoretically is less pain. I would also theorize that the slope of evolution for government that lasts longer and prone to less abuse of it (such as a four branch model) is contingent on longevity. It is fairly recently that humans have been living a tad longer than eighty.

A little off topic for my opinion of ourselves but I have found the attitude of widespread condemnation of our species does more damage then help.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 14:52 | 2198264 ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture

G-O-L-D

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 14:55 | 2198274 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Now we know who the FED is propping the markets for at least; it certainly isn't for Mom and Dad.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 15:08 | 2198305 zeroman
zeroman's picture

BLAH BLAH BLAH BLAH.. thats all i hear is a bunch of nothing. nobody knows anything. Gold to the moon, silver to the moon, blah blah blah.   Here is the reality. until the retail investor starts pouring money into this market at extreme highs, this market has a long way to go up for a long time.  Everybody now knows the government won't let anything fail ever again.  Monetarily, we are the best of the worst. Thank God Europe sucks so bad. They even make us look good!!    If i would have listened to the demise of our world by all of the dooms sayers on this site, I would be broke at least 1000 times over!!!  Yes, we have lots of problems including a prez who wants us to be like Europe!!! LOL

So here is the truth.  Get over your dooms day scenarios.  The U.S. comtrols the world  militarily, financially, and economically.  Yes, China and Russia can hate us but who the hell wants to live there or trust those guys???!!!!  Come on. We are the best and we have along ways to run. The housing turnaround hasn't even started yet!  Another 1-2 years and your gonna see this sizzle up with all this cheap money.

Get over it and get a life. Instead of blogging about the end of the world, why don't you go figure out a way to make a living.  You wanna know where all the people are that were on unemployement? Many have started their own businesses.. Yeah, thats right. Small business rules this countries economy.  not aapl, not msft, not ibm.  those are all just symbols.  We, the small business community run the show!  And you should thank your lucky stars we do!!

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 15:31 | 2198376 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Doomsday, not dooms day ;-)

Oh yeah, and "blah, blah, blah".

And:  http://www.zerohedge.com/news/ben-davies-greece-just-preview-whats-comin...

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 15:44 | 2198389 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

The US may "have along ways to run" but no matter how you add the numbers  up, statisically we cannot outrun the Chinese and we better start preparing for the day small business has to go to Chinese bankers for their inventory money.  Rots of ruck there.  Small business can't "rule" with no moola and I hadn't heard that US banks were freely handing out money again to small business; guess they didn't get the memo here in Florida.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 15:30 | 2198394 JuicyGrabs
JuicyGrabs's picture

There will be growth again but only after a big crash.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 17:03 | 2198629 Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

Don't give up. There is still plenty of time to go broke.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 18:19 | 2198785 Better_late_tha...
Better_late_than_never's picture

You are the type to build your only house on the beach because you like the view. You can lead a man to history books, but you can't make him read. Retards like you keep pm's and storage food cheap for me to stack before the Great Melt Up. Hope you like the taste of pepper spray. 

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:22 | 2199306 BeerBrewer09
BeerBrewer09's picture

Excellent post.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 20:21 | 2199045 mickrussom
mickrussom's picture

 Edit - accidental repost

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 20:22 | 2199047 mickrussom
mickrussom's picture

  Edit - accidental repost (2)

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 20:21 | 2199048 mickrussom
mickrussom's picture

I am in SiVal and I see small businesses closing up all the time. For Sale and For Rent signs all over the place in small commercial properties.

If you are broke and out of a job and a have a large monthly liability in personal rent or mortgage, how are you going to get an SBA loan? Qualify for commercial space?

Are you counting ebaying all your stuff off as a small business?

What numbers are you citing for small business creation? You realize that small and old and small and young companies need to be considered here. A lot of one-man-company jobs are created and a year later are gone.

Its easy to have a job and preach. Try being destitute for a while. Its very bad out there. Even for the smart. Even for the hard working.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 20:54 | 2199123 Iconoclast
Iconoclast's picture

The raft of small biz start ups in the USA over the past 3 years has an obvious explanation; a desperate last roll of the loaded dice as the jobs disappeared, the failure rate for start ups is bad enough in the 'best' of times, since 2008 it's been terrifying. Clueless have a go mentality has backfired..and now these new to business owners are cleaned out..

As for the USA hegemony it's failing, the renminbi will outlive and outpace the USD and the fear by which the USA ruled is now laughed at..

It's a dying empire, but they won't let it go without a fight, however, this time the Chinese and Russians aren't going to let the USA steal Irans oil and nat gas, the USA has run out of options, no bullying left, no currency, nothing to offer, it's desolate, desperate, hollowed out, a legend in their own tiny minds..

Check out that national debt, everything else is meaningless, it's the one and only that matters, everything else is irrelevant, it cant be managed, it can't be contained, the USA is burning through 2.5trl a year.. let it go man, you're fubar..

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 15:11 | 2198310 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Smart money... those who got hosed in 2011?? LOL

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 15:48 | 2198379 ipud
ipud's picture

comment removed

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 15:42 | 2198427 chirobliss
chirobliss's picture

Well that pretty much explains where the volume and volatility have gone these past few months.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 15:45 | 2198440 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

That and dark pools.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 15:47 | 2198443 Grey-Ghost
Grey-Ghost's picture

"Smart money" is kind of an oxymoron, don't you think?

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 16:17 | 2198512 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

It is always fun to look at investment advice that suggests plopping your value and tackle into the shredder.  You can really tell which ones have their floppily doppily's on the line and stand by what they say.  These don't talk about it being a "good" idea buying pud futures in a questionable deal with representative of the government of Bosnia. They really value their floppily doppily's.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 16:50 | 2198592 DarkStarDog
DarkStarDog's picture

They are are all retarded spoil brats. Benny is igboramt and they all shall aoon die off. fuck u all !!!lol

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 17:08 | 2198639 jm
jm's picture

Given the low volume, the smart money is torching for max pain @ opex.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 18:10 | 2198763 css1971
css1971's picture

Yknow... Call me contrarian but I think I'm going to buy some natural gas instead of apple.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 18:42 | 2198831 devo
devo's picture

No, I'd call you wise.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 18:11 | 2198768 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Smart Money is considered money that returns at least 50% of the S&P 500.

Dumb Money makes less than the S&P 500 without any lower limit qualifier. Dumb Money often returns more than Smart Money.

No Money returns -100% of the money invested.

Lots of Money doesn't do what hedge funds do.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 19:44 | 2198965 Stack Trace
Stack Trace's picture

Stupid money earns less than Mo'money.

Smart money makes less than stupid money.

Mo'money is what rappers make.

NWA is a rap group that made Mo'money.

NWA makes Mo'money than smart money by telling the police to go fuck themselves.

Sometimes a rapper does something stupid and it means he only has stupid amounts of money left-over like maybe a rapper invests in a new fast-food chain and it only returns 150% instead of 300% like his records do. Or maybe he drives his new Bentley into a pool full of hoes and it gets caught on video and is posted on you-tube where he makes stupid money.

My point is I think rappers make Mo'money than smart money and they get to insult white people while doing it. Winning!

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 19:33 | 2198949 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

I assume most of these hedge funds have bought about all the Apple shares they are going to buy. My question...now who do they all sell to once the shares begin to drop?

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 19:42 | 2198961 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

I wouldn't say confused by the market. I would say disgusted by the system. This is no longer a free market. It is a controlled system that the Fed is engineering with HFT trading. Period. Disgusted is as kind of a word I can use for this mess.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 19:56 | 2198990 toadold
toadold's picture

The interestig thing in the report is that the hedge funds are not "turning over" or doing as many transactions as in the past.....Is that fear that I smell?

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 20:01 | 2199006 Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

One day, it will be the Hedge Fund Managers jumping out of windows instead of the Foxconn employees. That will be a fine day indeed.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 20:05 | 2199015 Augustus
Augustus's picture

Here is what the Smart Money is doing - Running the Bernie Scam in other countries;

Japan Version of Madoff:.

Firm loses 200 billion yen in pension funds / AIJ told to halt business; other probes planned

 

 

 

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:45 | 2199550 Just_Another_User
Just_Another_User's picture

the smart money doesnt lose money... well... they lose your money... & when they do... they get their henchmen to pass up more of your money to cover all theyre asses. & lucky you - you get the tip twice.

dow 13 ... here comes the last of retail to get reemed all over again... rinse, wash, repeat... now how can you call that anything but 'smart money'?

Sat, 03/03/2012 - 01:03 | 2219183 q5251355
q5251355's picture

Mens Vibram FiveFingers and Womens Vibram Shoes was designed to reinvent the pleasure of 'barefooting.' It allows us to go back to the beginning, the way we were supposed to live. The moment we start using the Cheap Vibram Five Fingers to move bare feet, we experience a sudden resurge of a lot of abilities that we had lost due to years of forcing our body into unnatural movement. Gradually, we start to get back our original way of walking, the pain that we used to feel in our calf muscles or around our waist suddenly vanish, and most importantly we start feeling free and happy.

The Vibram FiveFingers Shoes from Vibram was originally designed to increase the potential and performance of runners, athletes, and other people involved in adventure sports. With admit importance of barefoot running, Five Fingers Shoes have promoted the culture of barefoot running, and now many athletes world over find the Five Fingers Vibram their best choice. The increased grip, steadiness and quickness offered by barefoot moving with five finger shoes is useful for many, who have to make quick reflex-based movements or tackle rough terrain, muddy waters, slippery sands, and the like. The Vibram Five Fingers have already become popular among people involved in climbing, fitness training, martial arts, light trekking, yoga, canyoneering, running, pilates, sailing, boating, kayaking, surfing, flats fishing, travel, and Canoeing.Vibram Five Fingers Sale from Five Fingers UK nline with big discount and fast delivery,better choice for you

All affordable Mulberry Bags make a survey of their very own; you'll come upon hand bags that fit each and every single kind of style personality and elegance. Take it for a rocking night out, every time you might be off to function or perhaps should you are out basically to satisfy track of buddies. With Mulberry Alexa bags that are generally in fashion you may by no means really feel outdated when it comes to manner and luxurious.

You are able to select out of your several colors of Mulberry Handbags that are trendy, the materials used are trustworthy and in addition excellent top quality in Mulberry Sale online store . This can make specific your Mulberry Bag lasts through differing several weeks. Group it along with any kind of clothing and they are positive to create the way record using their vogue, color and main top quality finish.Buy Mulberry Outlet from Mulberry Factory Shop will you save a lot of time and money because of the full collections available and big discount,and the same time trustful!

Mulberry Alexa Bags

Mulberry Bayswater Bags

Mulberry Briefcase Bags

Mulberry Clutch Bags

Mulberry Cross Body Bags

Mulberry Handbags

Mulberry Bayswater Holdalls Bag Black

Mulberry A Daria Clutch Bag Purse Black

Mulberry Alexa Holdalls Plum Bags

Mulberry Calf Leather Clutch Bag Purple

Mulberry Alexa Holdalls Oak Bag

Mulberry Hobo Bags

Mulberry Messenger Bags

Mulberry Shoulder Bags

http://www.alexabags2012.net

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!