The Consequences Of The Unthinkable: Here Is What Happens When The Euro Breaks Up

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As the following image from Spiegel summarizes, three things will happen simultaneously when the unthinkable finally occurs: i) economic output plummets, ii) unemployment rate soars, and iii) consumer prices explode. Of course, this is nothing but merely deferred consequences for Europe partying for over a decade under an unsustainable regime that borrowed from the future (sound familiar?). And now the inevitable hangover. In other words: payback is a bitch.

Source: Spiegel

0
Your rating: None
 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Mon, 06/25/2012 - 11:02 | 2557898 Rahm
Rahm's picture

King Dollar!

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 11:04 | 2557908 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

King Gold !

There fixed it for you.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 11:16 | 2557920 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

Bouy Is BACK ...

Losta  meetings...

 

World Fin "System" Being taken DOWN...

 

Get ready for Potato(e) & Soup linups.

Big Mack linups

IPod linups

42" LED linups

 

AND .................... GOLD linups ...

 

Weeeeeeeeee ... Wacko Times ARE HERE, Bitchez ...

 

 

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 11:30 | 2558047 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

EU will never break up but the Euro was designed to fail.  Think of the power these unelected technocrat ass clowns will gain when the banking system fails, several countries default, and joint fiscal treaties enter into reality, the banks are nationalized, and martial law is the new way of life.  and EU politicians will deny the eurobond rumors for now.  But they have wet dreams at night of them.   They cant wait for the shit to hit the fan.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 11:54 | 2558168 Marginal Call
Marginal Call's picture

Europe is going to go through struggles as long as it takes to break China.  That is the point of the whole exercise. 

 

hOpium Wars:  Part Deux

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 12:14 | 2558285 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Well, them and nearly six billion others.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 12:19 | 2558322 old naughty
old naughty's picture

Bouy?

So unemployment is projected to be 165.7MM...and growth down between 8.4 to 15.4%

Are these making a case for the can-kicking?

PIIGS prices shot up 9.5 to 18.6% Ouch! Is this the reflection (eh, reality) of gold prices…But going back to own currency will bring depreciation, no? Good for exports…

Germany,  leave please!

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 14:27 | 2558917 macholatte
macholatte's picture

 

Go here to read Part 3 of the article

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/fears-grow-of-consequences-of...

 

You will see this:

 

The German Finance Ministry's prognosis is even grimmer than that of the ING experts. According to their scenarios, in the first year following a euro collapse, the German economy would shrink by up to 10 percent and the ranks of the unemployed would swell to more than 5 million people. The officials were so horrified by their conclusions that they kept all of their analyses under lock and key, for fear that the costs of rescuing the euro could spin out of control. "Compared to such scenarios, a rescue, no matter how expensive it is, seems to be the lesser evil," says one Finance Ministry official.

German citizens haven't recognized yet what an abyss they are facing. If the euro collapses, not only will many people lose their livelihoods, but German retirement pensions will also be threatened. The economic success of the last few years would be destroyed, and Germany would fall back into the crisis status of the 1990s.

On the other hand, if the German government gave in to the Southern Europeans' pressure to communitize debt, the risks could even be greater. Instead of an uncontrolled euro crash, Germany could be confronted with an uncontrolled transfer union. Year after year, the Germans would have to transfer sums in the double-digit billions to Southern European countries.

Europe's politicians must surrender power to Brussels to supplement their common currency with the political union that's been missing until now.

 

Has the the Propaganda Machine just cranked up to convince the German sheeple that a German bailout of the EU is for their own good and, to convince the rest of the EU that the loss of sovereignty is really their only choice? 

 

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 04:35 | 2560734 bombimbom
bombimbom's picture

no, it's just a rational analysis of what would happen. a rescue IS the lesser evil. like it or not. you should go beyond ideologies and be honest enough to accept facts as they are.

That obviously make the case for a much quicker process of integration a must. but if you look at what it is really happening that was already apparent.

this is not germany conquering europe we are seeing, this is germany realizing that they will have to give up part of their sovereignity and trying, at least, to have an important role in shaping how the european federation will work.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 14:49 | 2559041 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

The EU will most likely not break up in totality. But there will be some countries to exit. Either under their own power or force. Enter the dragon.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 11:30 | 2558074 Jolly.Roger
Jolly.Roger's picture

Who or what is "Bouy"?

What's a "linup"?

 

 

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 11:49 | 2558153 akak
akak's picture

Beets me!

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 11:56 | 2558188 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

ROR!

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 12:44 | 2558443 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

And these are numbers ON TOP of the drops so far.  I think net net will be somewhere around "Mom and dad Save the World" bad.

Light Grenade anyone: http://youtu.be/dCeD2gF9jUo

 

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 12:54 | 2558479 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Sum thymes eye dew knot no watt ewe meen. 

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 15:46 | 2559246 akak
akak's picture

Vary fun-knee!

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 11:07 | 2557926 Rahm
Rahm's picture

It was a joke, needed the /sarc

Europe banks are in ICU. Germany is on bath salts if they don't bail on the failed experiment.

BUY GOLD BITCHEZ

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 11:10 | 2557949 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

''America is the most grandiose experiment the world has seen, but, I am afraid, it is not going to be a success.'' --Freud



Mon, 06/25/2012 - 11:20 | 2557999 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

How about some Karl Marx too?

 

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 12:16 | 2558296 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

"What's yours is mine, and what's mine is mine."

                                            - my wife quoting the late Karl Marx

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 12:16 | 2558297 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

"What's yours is mine, and what's mine is mine."

                                            - my wife quoting the late Karl Marx

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 11:32 | 2558084 rqb1
rqb1's picture

the only thing freud has to be afraid of is that he was wrong

Tue, 06/26/2012 - 04:14 | 2560724 Ar-Pharazôn
Ar-Pharazôn's picture

in 20 years we will see if you're right or if Freud was right. personally i bet on Freud vision

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 11:36 | 2558098 Ropingdown
Ropingdown's picture

Freud wrote that quote during a period of his life during which he was heavily addicted to cocaine and was, historians seem to believe, sleeping with both his wife and his wife's sister.  I wouldn't make too much of it.  He was also writing a lot of sex books projecting onto everyone his lust for his mother.  Must have been a wild ride.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 11:45 | 2558140 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Freud was for sick liberals !    Ludwig Von Mises is for healthy Libertarians !            Monedas       1929         Comedy Jihad Economics 101 Export Your Best Stuff .... Factory Seconds And Odd Sized Fruit Can Be Sold In Local Swap Meets

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 11:55 | 2558183 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Unfortunately for Freud he lived in an era when the chemestry of the brain was not understood. He tried to explain problems in the way science undertstood things at the time. When we write the last page on the human brain he will be but a footnote in a chapter on history.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 12:12 | 2558240 Lebensphilosoph
Lebensphilosoph's picture

Materialistic neuroscience still cannot explain the existence of the mind and its origin from matter. And, if its proponents bothered to read Leibniz, they'd know that the endeavour is in principle impossible.

We illustrate with an example: why should and how can some motion of matter in some configuration, in all its colourless, soundless, tasteless, odourless, thoughtless glory, give rise to a visual phenomenon we call by the universal 'red' that appears in the mind? Hocus pocus. No acceptable answer is, or ever will be, forthcoming.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 12:53 | 2558476 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Metaphysiscs used to be the "Queen of the Sciences." Not anymore. 

However, I agree with you 100%. +1

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 14:15 | 2558879 Boxed Merlot
Boxed Merlot's picture

Only the concept of aseity does no harm to the law of cause and effect.  It allows for the organization of matter and the right to conclude logical consequences, i.e. it legitimizes scientific inquiry.  Whereas an effect requies a cause, a self existent "I AM" requires no cause as it cannot be and not be simultaneously, and therefore cannot be classed as an effect.  imo, for now.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 13:14 | 2558570 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

How is sleeping with one's sister-in-law any worse than having children with your brother's daughter, a common (faux)-Jew custom.  The Rothschilds commonly married their neices.  This may be a reason they are more likely to have genetic diseases like the Habsburgs did.  It also keeps the wealth and power in the family.

Siggie was a member of The Tribe, of course.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 16:38 | 2559403 Iwanttoknow
Iwanttoknow's picture

Was also fucking Gustave mahler,the composer's wife.Thw words of a charlatan(father of modern psychiatry is Emil Von Krapelin) is worthless.

sigmund fraud.

Wed, 06/27/2012 - 11:59 | 2565220 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Alma Maria Schindler?  She fucked just about every genius contemporary in Vienna -- a remarkable woman.  They don't make them like her anymore.  She also married Walter Gropius and Franz Werfel.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 11:46 | 2558144 Waffen
Waffen's picture

Freud caused a lot of damage to humanity and set back mental health 50 years. His nephew Edward Bernays is even worse.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 15:54 | 2559267 pufferfish
pufferfish's picture

Edward Bernays is responsible for most of this entire mess. He is the pied piper for 'sheeple'...

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 11:19 | 2558000 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Ahh when paper dreams go up in smoke, a shaft of Gold shines out through the thick clouds

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 11:08 | 2557932 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

No, actually that is bullish for the dollar. Which is inverse to the markets so that equates to lower markets in the US.

Of course that's only temporary, just chasing shit around in a circle till it's finally realized everyone is screwed.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 11:11 | 2557948 CPL
CPL's picture

Paying out in IOU's eventually means someone else will eventually hand back your IOU.

 

If you end up inheriting your own IOU, does that make you libel for it to yourself?

 

Or is it an excuse to trade the debt again?  <--- I believe this is the system in place now.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 11:21 | 2558015 Its_the_economy...
Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

Do you have to pay state and fed taxes on the money you use to pay off your your IOU to yourself?

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 11:33 | 2558086 Ropingdown
Ropingdown's picture

Of course.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 11:40 | 2558119 brooklynlou
brooklynlou's picture

Hey! Change your avatar! There only one Savalas allowed on ZH ;-)

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 12:05 | 2558241 viahj
viahj's picture

you're Kojak, he's Maggott

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 11:40 | 2558120 brooklynlou
brooklynlou's picture

Hey! Change your avatar! There only one Savalas allowed on ZH ;-)

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 11:22 | 2558026 flacon
flacon's picture

But IOU's are legal tender for all DEBTS... how does that work?

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 11:43 | 2558132 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

The grass is greener syndrome....it only appears so because it is more distant and less understood.

 

Surprised we have yet to see a massive flight of capital into the big name NYSE stocks, also seen by those at a distance as a safe haven.

 

And, with China exporting about 30% to Europe, what might have been a soft landing now appears rock hard. Watch for more easing over there which will boost the peasants' demand for PM's.....they be smart peasants.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 12:03 | 2558230 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

and I wake every day thankful for another day of false normalcy. Another day to get things in order another day to (try to) get a loan and redo a 30 year mortgage. Another day to perhaps buy physical gold. Another day for a hyperinflationinst to take advantage of what is coming while ignoring those around me who think I am nuts or at least paranoid.

My goal is to be criticized like Michael Burry. I want folks to say: " he just took advantage of the system". Meanwhile they won't. They do not want to know what is coming. Mostly I think they can't do much about it but many just find it too scary.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 11:25 | 2558046 Stormy Weather
Stormy Weather's picture

King Food and Water !

 

Fixed your fix.

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 11:58 | 2558193 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

King SUN, there fixed all your fixes BITCHEZ

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 12:38 | 2558418 Dingleberry
Dingleberry's picture

No. Rahm is correct. We have seen this movie before. A few times, actually. I'm as big a gold bug as anyone, but with the CBs the LME doing their thing, gold will truly explode only when the USD gets into trouble. Gold will rise, but not explode until then. 

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 11:20 | 2558005 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

trust Der Spiegel to do an asinine forecast based on one and only one of the highly unlikely scenarios of an eurozone breakup... and trust them to translate it in the most bleak way to goad their readers to shriek in horror

the big point is still currency. we are in a currency war, nobody is going to break up as long as this environment stays so. call me when the CHF leaves the floor...

meanwhile, China's CB is buying up in the Japanese Stock Market and the Japanese are not resisting the move. this is the news of the week.

long live King Dollar...

Mon, 06/25/2012 - 11:24 | 2558041 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

Going against centuries of Sino-Japan tradition and hostilities. Just the first score of many being set right by the Chinese. Let's see, who else might be on the list?

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!