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Consumer Blinks as "Consumer Comfort" Collapses Most In 4 Years

Tyler Durden's picture





 

We have seen three very loud and very clear messages this week on the state of the US consumer's mind. After a few months of extravagance, on the back of what can only be described as depression-fatigue, reality is biting once again. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index just missed expectations by its greatest amount in three years and has plunged over the last 5 weeks by the most in four years - dropping back to four-month lows. Do these two messages explain the catastrophe that is JCP's results this quarter? We suspect so as the outlook for the economy (sub-index) has plummeted by the most in 14 months - once again echoing the last two years and the end of the central-bank easing periods exposing the sad reality beneath.

Bloomberg's Consumer Comfort Index missed expectations by the most in 3 years...

And the last 5 weeks have seen the index crash its most in 4 years...

As econoimic expectations plunge...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 


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Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:06 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
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Did they blink or did they open their eyes?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:11 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
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Collapse? We're not using that word anymore....now it's egress.

 

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:12 | Link to Comment SHEEPFUKKER
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Gold spikey spikey

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:14 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
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I took my first look at the market about 30 minutes in.  I knew PM's opened green so I thought the market would to.  Hmmm, is that called unhinged?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:21 | Link to Comment Eclipse89
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It's called Munger'd

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:23 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
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Mr. Munger.....there are some Philistines here to see you.

 

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:37 | Link to Comment greyghost
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well as far as j.c. pennys.....it couldn't be their ad campaign insulting 98% of their customer base????? the ceo needs to be fired for bringing the social engineering nonsense into the business arena. don't get me wrong...i don't care what these people do in their bedrooms...just don't throw it up in my face. enough already. i have to laugh everytime i hear that idiot "modern family" show is touted as one of the most top rated show. i asked maybe 100 people and most don't even know what show i'm talking about...lol.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:30 | Link to Comment blunderdog
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Turn off the teevee and learn something.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:10 | Link to Comment Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

Head came out of sand ummmm.....ass is more like it.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:15 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
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Out of sand, up ass...

What can I say, it was buried deep.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:19 | Link to Comment Mercury
Mercury's picture

Unless consumers can be confident and uncomfortable at the same time...

Maybe they're just confident that they're uncomfortable.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:24 | Link to Comment toady
toady's picture

I was gonna say... Didn't confidence beat last week?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:54 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
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They looked at their checking accounts.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 13:04 | Link to Comment Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

They squinted in disbelief when their credit cards were declined for those new iToys. A sad day indeed.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:08 | Link to Comment the 300000000th...
the 300000000th percent's picture

But but but I thought consumer confidence was up most as its been in like 1000 years??? 

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:10 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Yeah but it was an AP report.....so I just ignored it.

 

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:08 | Link to Comment battle axe
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They were blindfolded and shot.....

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:09 | Link to Comment monopoly
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Reality setting in? And I hope no one here sold their gold.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:09 | Link to Comment DavidJ
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Is this due to Oh Sh*t there goes my 401K?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:09 | Link to Comment Sandmann
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Probably seen the cost of the J35 and the "too good to breathe" J22 Raptor to want to spend any money when the Feds are doing it for them with such gusto. The way Washington can spend makes everyone else understand why they can't breathe when flying over Bernanke Bump on top of Debt Mountain and swooping over Greenspan Gulch before blacking out in Dollar Gap

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:09 | Link to Comment the 300000000th...
the 300000000th percent's picture

You wont se that on CNN

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:11 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
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CNN.....now there's some collapse for you.

 

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:16 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
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Well played.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:09 | Link to Comment asteroids
asteroids's picture

45million people on food stamps. Millions on "disabiliity". What, you expect the "data" to improve?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:13 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
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Yes, I do expect the "data" to improve.

Emphasis on quotation marks.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:13 | Link to Comment DeadFred
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Trend lines for the EURUSD put the January lows in play today for the first time. They've got until Tuuesday to change the trend or take out the low. Now where did I put that hockey stick?

Edit: Oops I hope it wasn't my post that caused them to goose it like that. That must have been uncomfortable.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:10 | Link to Comment HurricaneSeason
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Never fear, there's a new Iphone coming out soon. Bullish.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:11 | Link to Comment BudFox2012
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Now I'm getting worried.  When even their completely made-up fluff statistics are going negative, you know some bad shit is coming down the bend...

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:13 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
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Someday, we'll all look back and say, "Remember the Facebook iPO?"

 

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:16 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
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Facebook IPO = the mother of all bright, shiny objects.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:18 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
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squirriel

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:18 | Link to Comment El
El's picture

I am getting this strange feeling that when we look back on 2012, the Facebook IPO is not going to be what comes to mind.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:22 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
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Fully disagree.  This will be the "could no one see what was happening" moment and it will go something like this: "In stark contrast to the public view billions of dollars were flushed into a social media company that became obsolete 30 days later when a better social media app came out.  Most startling was Facebook co-founder, and native Brazilian, Eduardo Saverin announced he would denounce his US citizenship."

Everything pretty much fell apart after rumor spread J-lo wouldnt be back as a judge.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 11:06 | Link to Comment Nobody For President
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You know JPM Hater, the first thing I thought of when I heard the first official Jamie mea culpa on the (first) 2 billion was "JPM Hater must be a really, really happy person right now."

True?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 19:44 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
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Ear to ear

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:18 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
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Flopbook.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:25 | Link to Comment Pairadimes
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FacePalm.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:40 | Link to Comment BLACK_DOG
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america's new dating site!

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:12 | Link to Comment dasein211
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I always said Ben wouldn't pull out the QE chopper before Greece exploded. Well it looks like he'll have to pull it out next month. My money is on about 3 trillion. Maybe 5 trillion. But it'll be the last time. Enjoy the year!

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:22 | Link to Comment HurricaneSeason
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How will he hand out $5 trillion dollars if Germany and the U.S. Tea Party don't approve of raising the debt limits?  He could give it all to Greece after they exit the Euro and give them $5 trillion and let them disperse it throughout the world on wild toga party vacations.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:23 | Link to Comment BudFox2012
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If they do another QE next month, I fully expect the effects to only last a few months.  Each time they have done easing, whether it be QE or swaps or whatever they will call it, the effects have lasted half as long with each successive try.  Last one lasted about 6 months, so this should only last three.  So I revise your statement, have a nice SUMMER.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:29 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
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Which is why this one has to be massive to carry them through the elections. Then once the elections are over all hell can break loose. There are a lot of year end events going into 2013.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:12 | Link to Comment Ted Baker
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US ECONOMY WILL OFFICIALLY ENTER A DOUBLE DIP RECESSION ON THE 15TH OF JUNE 2012 - THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OFFICIALS WILL ADMIT THAT...IN OTHER NEWS JP LOSSES CLOSED TO 7.0 BILLIONS AND SHARE TO DROP TO 28 US DOLLARS THE PIECE....

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:12 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
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Why do I feel like a whore in the corner waiting to be paid.

Oh, because I am.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:13 | Link to Comment RoadKill
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What about Philly Fed?

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:14 | Link to Comment uno
uno's picture

Sounds like a good time for the Obama's to take a well deserved monthly vacation in his and her 747's.  What will the She-male wear, the MSM will have their lapdogs reporting will special news breaks.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:14 | Link to Comment Politeyx
Politeyx's picture

These charts are supposed to be read from the comfort of a LazyBoy. 

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:15 | Link to Comment El
El's picture

Just imagine... if the TBTF had been allowed to fail and malinvestments been allowed to liquidate five years ago, we would likely be post-recovery and in strong growth right now. How sad for us.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:18 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

Consumer Comfort .....i bought a bottle of that once...to sweet for me...

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:20 | Link to Comment Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Well I had the bank manager on the phone this morning. Something about my outstanding balance, I said its fucking spot on isn't it. I don't think he took it that way mind.

Confidence? The only thing I'm confident about, is that its only gonna get fucking worse.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:23 | Link to Comment ArrestBobRubin
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Comfort? What comfort? We're all being ass-dildoed by international bankster trash with full air cover provided by their craven DC Vassal Squad.

Not many people I know take much "comfort" there.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:37 | Link to Comment rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

The news item yesterday reporting that NASCAR has seen a drop off in attendance due to folks not being able to afford the gas to get to their events nor the ticket prices pretty well confirms where Joe six pack sits with the economy. Next we'll be hearing from the NFL about weak season ticket sales.....I'd trust that data more than most of the other stuff.

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:38 | Link to Comment prodigious_idea
prodigious_idea's picture

Wonder what box these 14 million people checked on the "consumer comfort" poll.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-13/spark-in-sales-of-cars-and-trucks-drives-u-s-economy.html

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:54 | Link to Comment rosiescenario
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One dead canary:

 

"The study, from the pro-market think tank Public Notice and Race Fans 4 Freedom, finds that the economic downturn of the last several years has directly affected how NASCAR fans watch and enjoy their sport. Since 2009, race attendance per year has fallen below 4 million people, and the number has been declining severely as the unemployment rate has skyrocketed. The cost of attending—with higher gas prices, less disposable income, and diminished financial security—has increased. 

According to the study, the value of the sport, too, is threatened by the poor economy, with the stock prices of racing team companies plummeting in the last five years and sponsors pulling back on funding cars. “The days of $25 million sponsorship deals appears to be over for the time being, sending teams scrambling for support,” the study reads. The result is a less competitive field with fewer racers. 

“At the end of the day, these numbers really hit NASCAR fans’ quality of life,” says Liz Dyar, the founder of Race Fans 4 Freedom. Dyar adds that with nearly 75 million fans across the country, the NASCAR nation is a “great snapshot” of the country as a whole—and that with plenty of those fans in swing states like Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida, their views on the economy could impact the election."

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 12:19 | Link to Comment earnyermoney
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Just need to race Chevy Volts instead of those gas guzzling V8 stock engines.

 

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 10:54 | Link to Comment dcb
dcb's picture

we clearly need more QE, and inflation to make it more difficult for the consumer to stetch decreasing wages and put food on their table and gas in thei car. the only path to recovery to to make the vast majority of ameicans worse off while we ramp the stock makets so the top 1% see the value of their assets grow, wealth inequality equals prosperity--- Ben bernanke

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 11:39 | Link to Comment Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

But at least the elites in LA are outbidding each other on multimillion dollar homes! Who said Fed policiy isn't working.

Freddie Mac rates continue to fall.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/05/17/freddie-mac-mortgage-rates-drop-again-thank-greece-portugal-and-spain/

Thu, 05/17/2012 - 12:17 | Link to Comment earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

Now that's what I call "FOward 2012".

 

Notice a small blurb in today's NYT stating the U.S. has Iran strike plans ready for O's signature. Of course this was ahead of planned meetings this weekend on Iran's nuclear program. I believe Iran will call O's bluff. A resource war is coming as O gets desperate to keep his 1% life style on the tax payers dime.

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