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Consumer Confidence Adds To Very Unwelcome Trifecta Of "Ugly" Good News
Just when you thought it was safe to hope for more bad news being good news we complete the triumvirate of housing, manufacturing, and now confidence all beating expectations. But we Moar QE. Consumer Confidence just beat expectations for the first time in 5 months rising to its highest level since April as it appears the self-reinforcing 'Fed's got your back' belief once again becomes a self-defeating 'how can we QE when everything's peachy' scenario. To wit, 12-month inflation expectations rose from 5.3% to 5.4% - as we noted the inflation-argument for NEW QE here. This is simply remarkable levels of cognitive bias considering the savings rate just rose to a one-year high implying people are expectation deflation - dis-inflation at the least. It would appear that indeed - given the market's downward trajectory - that the stealing of one's own punchbowl realization is occurring.
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Time to "unprice" QE3
Honestly, I think this is the sort of chaos that the current political structure is shooting for. These types of contradictatory scenarios only add to stresses already inherent in the system.
I am amazed at the resiliency of the global situation. Like a drowning man, countries, institutions and people are clinging to anything that even seems remotely feasible.
It will end in mayhem.
who needs a punchbowl?
Is this not (nearly) entirely described by Game Theory? Are these PhDs in charge the wrong guys? Should we all study Game Theory instead of "economics"? I mean We The People study, not just the .001% quants?
http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/game-theory/
Pleeze Suhr, can I 'ave a little moar bad nuuze.
What do the consumers have to be confident about? The fact that they have to spend hundreds of dollars they don't have for school supplies for the upcoming school year?
We are bouncing off the current bottom just a tad, give it time.
The record heat and ZiOlympics have fried the flyover state's brains - and the numbers are fudged.
The sheeple are buying the BS. After all they are sheeple. No one here should be surprised as Goldman still having clients is all you need to know about the majority of people.
"What do the consumers have to be confident about? The fact that they have to spend hundreds of dollars they don't have for school supplies for the upcoming school"
My granddaughters school is requiring 8th graders to purchase a specific brand of graphing calculator at over $100 cost. Why don't they teach kids to use graph paper and pencils to get the basics, and then let them move up to $100+ "electronic crutches" when they get to 10th grade?
It's not cognitive dissonance. Econometric data gathering is unreliable. Anyone who thinks that the economy can be acurately measured and then fine-tuned is a fascist pig.
Oil getting sold hard, bonds being bought again.
Both will eventually contribute to a "tax cut" for the consumer and more "Animal Spirits" for Wall Street traders.
Hey Robo how was your 'Boner Jam' at the Blue Swallow Bar last Saturday nite?
Why don't people here like you? (That's not a rhetorical question)
robot trader is an alter ego character written by a frustrated perma bear
what about that garbage index?
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-the-us-garbage-indicator...
Not sure how this could happen without serious fudging, but man oh man worse possible timing.
We can't haz the pre-emptive free monies? Aw.
And the Consumer Confidence index has not been above 100 since Q4 2007.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/07/31/grim-fandango-consume...
http://dailybail.com/home/bankers-behind-bars-petition-to-put-bankers-in...
Sign up and make this go viral folks. Tyler maybe you can do a post on it that would help it exceed a million.
What consumer confidence are they talking about?
Stores are empty, and the UPS & FedEx trucks aren't seen as often delivering Internet goods.
These economists and prognosticators must go look at the stores in Greenwich or some other toney haven, see trophy wives out blowing wads (heh) on trinkets, and decide all is well.
Everywhere else, it ain't.
It's ALL just pure BS, phone poll nonsense....I dont know why anyone really pays the least bit of atention to any of it.
What is really amazing is that many consumer stocks are actually trading for double or near double the price of the 2008 high. Nike made it to almost double the previous high and so did Under Armour. Under Armour actually made a 1000% gain from the 2009 bottom, really?
Does anyone actually believe retail sales have actually grown by that much over the past three years? Does anyone actually believe Under Armour is selling more product now than they were at the peak of the last bullshit market? Enough to justify a doubling in the price of their stock. I actually know based on true checked out items that Under Armour is selling less inventory in 2012 than they did in 2008. In fact sporting goods sales are down over 35% from last year, which were down 25% from the previous year. Those are the actual numbers based on checked out inventory. Analysts don't focus on actual sales though, they only focus on reported sales in earnings reports that feature more bullshit than any political convention.
Nearly 75% of reported sales in any given quarter is inventory transfer on line of credit. More inventory than can ever be sold is created to artificially boost "sales" to prop up stock prices. There is an overage of square footage in the hundreds of millions dedicated to holding inventory for the sake of channel stuffing Nike, Under Armour, and the other major brands to boost their stock.
You simply can't justify any stock price in this market given the current economic climate. It is all bullshit based on Fed handouts. The Fed has distorted the market by at least 75% based on the actual numbers.
I agree that the CC #s are BS...... but if the Fed wanted to QE.....those BS #s would have been manipulated down, not up.
Right!
Karl Case of Case-Shiller says the good housing report is a tail wind to the economy!
Mitt takes the lead in the polls, and all the economic data turns. :) Go MITT :)
My confidence is up.
New car in 2005 cost 34oz.
New car yesterday cost 13oz.
Things are not so bad out there.
I paid 933 oz for my house in 2004. I just bought a new house for 84 oz. Life is good. Gold, I'm glad I found you
Not that I believe confidence could possible be up, but no New QE until after the election. Makes me think the upcoming labor number will be "bland" and revised later.
One would think that the public coming to grips with reality would be good for the economy.
I'm going out to buy some Chinese junk so they can have our extra jobs.
Replace "Consumer" with "Zombie", when you read these headlines.
Could you really notice a difference?
The most worthless measure out there. From a nation where 86% have never heard of Jamie Dimon but 95% know a Kardashian
Most victims of rape usually don't know their perpetrator.
not much "confidence" in faceplant...21 handle now.
How many Americans can really comprehend US economics? The nation has $16T in debt and we're running deficits of $1.3T annually. It's like people want someone to figure out how to resolve the mess we're in so that they can continue to go about living their current lifestyle. It's just not going to happen that way. The nation is in big trouble and the solutions will necessitate major league changes.
Think about the fact that the bigget boom product in banking right now is Payroll Debit Cards because the common Joe can't understand or doesn't have the discipline to handle a checkng account. I'd include about 50% of college grad in that statement. How can a paretn or student possibly consider rolling up $100K in student loan debt for a degree in water fowl art?
70% of the US GDP is based on consumer spending. US politicians do not want Americans educated about US and personal finances because then they might make inteligent spending decisions and about who they elect to public office. Think about the mortgage fiasco. Because a lender told you you could afford a house you thought it was then ok? The borrower couldn't figure out that his house payment was 70% of his take home pay and that it wouldn't work?
Then we have politicians complain that people aren't saving enough for retirement. So when I read an article like this....it's nothing more than emotionally based garbage. I could go on for days.
The City of Man
http://shutupnsing.wordpress.com/2012/07/31/the-city-of-man/
I have confidence but I can't think of a damn thing I want to buy.