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Consumer Confidence Beats Expectations As Consumer Expectations Tumble To Lowest Since 1980, Inflation Outlook Rises

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The UMichigan read for consumer confidence came slightly better than uber-depressionary, printing at 57.8, on expectations of 57, and better than the apocalyptic 55.7 from August. To put the number in perspective, it is the second lowest since February 2009. To algorithms all that will matter, however, is that it is rising. What they will completely ignore is that consumer expectations, or the outlook for the future, just dropped yet again, from 47.4 to 47, the lowest print since May of 1980! More troubling to the Fed is the read on inflation expectations, which after declining for months, rose in both 1 year (from 3.5% to 3.7%) and 5 year (from 2.9% to 3.0%) expectations.

Consumer Confidence:

Consumer Expectations:

Chart: Bloomberg

 


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Fri, 09/16/2011 - 10:08 | Link to Comment Irish66
Irish66's picture

Thank you.  Glad cut and paste was fixed

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 10:09 | Link to Comment DirtMerchant
DirtMerchant's picture

Does this mean print or twist?...I get confused about that but "rally on" I get

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 10:13 | Link to Comment Estrella
Estrella's picture


"Consumer Confidence Beats Expectations" Will be the lead headline in the MSM.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 10:24 | Link to Comment UGrev
UGrev's picture

Rejoice ye poor souls! Your brethren are, once more, a happy bunch! Feast! Feast upon the goods as they drip with the sweat of chinese slaves making products for your consumption. Feast! and be merry! /end sarc.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 10:28 | Link to Comment Michael Victory
Fri, 09/16/2011 - 10:13 | Link to Comment SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

That's a fugly consumer exp.

But it is nonetheless a statistic that the algos conveniently ignore.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 10:14 | Link to Comment the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

We've got a problem Houston

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 10:16 | Link to Comment TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

No Coment!

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 10:18 | Link to Comment jointhewave
jointhewave's picture

This video should get America's hopes up... 

American Debt Crisis - A Warning To Millions Of Americans

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 10:18 | Link to Comment doomandbloom
doomandbloom's picture

cheer up guys...the stock market is still up....why you so sad?

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 10:19 | Link to Comment Version 7
Version 7's picture

It's ok. Need only to fudge the way consumer confidence is reported if it stops fitting within the expectation. Like inflation.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 10:20 | Link to Comment YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

People buying treasuries are losing money big time.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 10:20 | Link to Comment dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

To the moon baby!  To the moon!

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 10:26 | Link to Comment doomandbloom
doomandbloom's picture

...and beyond...

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 10:35 | Link to Comment X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

again, you guys are sharper at this market stuff than i,

gold has had some CRAZY moves in the last month, but silver really hasnt. how come?

am i missin' something? thanks in advance...

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 10:36 | Link to Comment DirtMerchant
DirtMerchant's picture

one word: manipulation

at some point they will lose control of it, and I will retire :)

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 10:58 | Link to Comment X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

thanks!

p.s. love the avitar

i can face the coming collapse, but when the coffee runs out,  im going to be one pissed off S.O.B.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 11:47 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Just make sure you can operate yer firearms appropriately under caffeine withdrawal, cuz yer going to be facing 30 million Americans whose SSRI intake will involuntarily go from 60mg/day to zero.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 12:45 | Link to Comment X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

sorry, i dont use firearms anymore....

i just bake bread for my fellow vets

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 10:26 | Link to Comment Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

This is all getting really boring. I am gonna give this whole thing another couple of months because if nothing happens by then, then it never will.

It has been fun waking up every morning to see whether the market is up 200 or down 200 but now it is the same shit recycled week after week and month after month.

 

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 10:28 | Link to Comment doomandbloom
doomandbloom's picture

dont give up now....

every major change takes at least two years.....we just have to be persistent...

it will fall....one column at a time...

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 10:39 | Link to Comment SilverDOG
SilverDOG's picture

And so the masses were bored to death.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 12:25 | Link to Comment Absinthe Minded
Absinthe Minded's picture

It's pissing me off. Yesterday was the most blatant example of why we should be pissed off as I have seen. Jobless claims 428K, Greece fucked, Obama's Solyndra ripping us off, 46 million on foodstamps, foreclosures are up 30% and the news that the Fed and ECB are going to print more money drives the fuckin' market through the roof! It's bullshit. All of these Confidence numbers are a fuckin sham. It just shows who the market benefits and 90% of the sheeple don't have a clue. It IS going to be a rude awakening.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 10:30 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

AAPL at new world record highs two days after the biggest credit bust in Europe's history.

I'm speechless.

Quote of the day from Peteybear over at WSB chat:

peteybear - Thu, Sep 15, 2011 - 07:51 PM

I'm amazed so few people talking about this. Mkt ran 100% in 2 yrs. In 5 months its given back a garden variety paltry jokish 11%. For whats happened kids thats a miracle

11% is a normal yearly correction and we've had some of the worst news since the 1930's and hardly fallen. s@p futures up 90 pts since sunday nights lows. That's 5 days of short horror. If we don't start tanking soon the lows are in for the year.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 10:38 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

gotta agree with the first part. people say they aren't confident but then they go buy the latest i-whatever anyway.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 13:01 | Link to Comment tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

The Ponzi Casino serves Apple juice to all its patrons. I've said this at least 10 times over the past 3 years so sorry I'm being repetitive... The Dow has finally hit the highs of Oct 1999....Bawahahaha Add the cost of inflation and you actually have lost more then 11% over the past 12 years...  Maybe you should consider nickle slots instead?

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 10:32 | Link to Comment Irish66
Irish66's picture

Germany just kicked the can?

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 10:35 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Consumer expectations'? Who cares what a bunch of consumer sheeple think?

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 11:04 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

SD-1,

It may be that Consumer Expectations is among the most important indicators out there.  It's a measure of how fleeced the people are.  If the masses understood reality, the number would print negative and folks would be holed up in their bunkers.  The lower the number goes, the closer to panic we get.

The most powerful accelerant to the oncoming collapse is active panic among the sheeple: bank runs and the money velocity that ultimately causes the latent hyperinflation to present itself.

My view, that's all...

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 10:53 | Link to Comment unununium
unununium's picture

Bloomberg seems like a partially compromised operation.  TPTB don't seem to be able to control the entire message. 

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 11:48 | Link to Comment boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

I think Michael Bloomberg is mulling over a run at the White House.  I wish he would too, though I am a democrat I did not and will not vote for the Twat- a -prompter, and being gay I cannot vote for any of the current field of GOP, especially the more Taliban ones that want to amend the constitution to take away rights of citizens.  This could explain why his company avoids burning all bridges with their editorial ethic, he does not want to get nailed for stiff necked opinion and spin when he might need to be able to deny a position.

As to the expectations of consumers dropping to pre Raygun levels, most of you do not even remember 1980 but those that do will tell you that is was a very bad time.  We were stuck with another failed one term president then too.  Likely war with Iran was on peoples minds as our embassy staff was held hostage.  Even though I was in the service till December of 79 I believed then as did a lot of others that the attack on our embassy and the holding of hundreds of our people was an act of war, and that Iran would remain a shit disturbing enemy in the region till it was dealt with.  But I and everyone I knew never dreamed that forlorn butt wipe of a nation would get the bomb. 

Economically we were pretty bad off, but in many ways we are worse off now, today they will not even admit how bad the situation is where in that time they openly discussed the problems.  Of course then the people elected Raygun and sealed the fate of the nation on a path to debt slavery and fiat destruction. 

 

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 10:38 | Link to Comment SilverDOG
SilverDOG's picture

Consumer confidence,  expectations, perspective, consumer expectations, outlook, expectations, expectations.

For those who believe, expectations on crack sales, will inherently increase.

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 10:40 | Link to Comment Racer
Racer's picture

Inflation expectations are well contained... like sub-prime before it...

 

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 10:44 | Link to Comment PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

Is this the bottom for gold/silver ($1,762/oz and $39.32/oz) ?

Fri, 09/16/2011 - 10:59 | Link to Comment scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

The 1:1 dxy/es correlation skews towards es over time.. that makes sense assuming that higher volume down days and light volume up days equals  peeps selling stocks and leaving the casino for good on market dips (dollar rallies) but any slight indication of dollar weakness stocks float up on thin, fluffy light as air volume backed by HFT/PPT games. There's a huge air pocket under this market waiting to blow out.

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