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Consumer Confidence Jumps Most In Eight Years, More Than 4 Standard Deviations

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The somewhat incredible rise in consumer confidence this morning is the largest absolute jump since April 2003 from prior revised 40.9 to 56. On a percentage basis, only the April 2009 reversion was higher as this represents a 4 standard deviation elevation from its long-term mean.Of course, its all about expectations, as the sub-index jumped from 50 to 67.8.

 

Expectations jumped the greatest of the sub indices but remains only back to July 2011 levels.

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:13 | 1925376 chunga
chunga's picture

What?

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:16 | 1925393 CPL
CPL's picture

After black friday cyber whatever people are feeling happy?

 

Like after a heroin addict gets their hit of external validation from a needle.  Remember, hand to mouth US consumers.  Wait a month with the credit card bills coming in.  If credit is correct there are going to be a shit tonne of personal bankruptcies come Jan/Feb.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:23 | 1925456 No Mas
No Mas's picture

So? What does that have to do with consumer confidence? If one goes BNKRPT then one is now free of relatively cheap debt and can proceed to consume on realtively more expensive debt. Either way, markets up.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:38 | 1925560 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

and so go the next lambs to the slaughter...

I've got some magic beans, if you're interested, very good quality, much cheapness...

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 14:47 | 1926549 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

I've got a cheaper solar company to sell you. Only used once.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 17:15 | 1927412 eureka
eureka's picture

If you're really stupid, you live in the moment, like there is no time - no past, no future, only the moment which must be squeezed dry and consumed. FULLY. NOW!!!

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:42 | 1925581 Manthong
Manthong's picture

40 years of liberal socialist government school education and indoctrination gets you successive generations of indebted and indentured sheep content with the sparse grazing field they are in and oblivious to the shearing process. 

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:13 | 1925757 ltsgt1
ltsgt1's picture

You hit the nail right on the head. 40 years of liberal socialist government school education produces optimists whom expect to receive prices even when they finish dead last. The glass or wallet is always half full.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:45 | 1925888 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Liberal socialist government??? Do you live in one of the Nordic countries?

You sure as fuck don't live in the USA....

 

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:57 | 1925943 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Obamacare, Perpetual Unemployment Benefits, transfer of private bank debt to government, mortgages to mirror foggers, school loans to mirror foggers, armed Department of Education, Civilian Defense force, detention and assasination of citizens without trial...l

Your right.. it sounds more like I live in 1939 Germany

 

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:59 | 1925965 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Nah na! I learned in state school from kneelers like flak that liberal socialism is super duper fun.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 13:06 | 1926001 Manthong
Manthong's picture

I was telling the wife, if you like the post office, just wait till you see what the liberal socialists do to the hospital.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 13:23 | 1926049 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Yep, look at life expectecy, surveys about personal satisfaction, and fraction of GDP spent on healthcare... Oh, also look at the fraction of revenues going to upper management in health care...

Have you ever dealt with anything but employer paid for insurance in the US??

I have dealt with the health care systems of 4 countries, all involving fairly major procedures, and I have a sneaking suspicion that you don't have a clue what you are talking about...

 

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 13:31 | 1926140 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Flak noes all! Follow his orders! It is for your own good slaves!

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 13:41 | 1926173 Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 15:07 | 1926672 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Life expectancy is better correlated to healthier lifestyle and diet, than it is to access to modern Sick Care. Most of the rest of the world still eats food, rather than super-sized Happy Meals.

I presume Sweden is a good example of your free Sick Care utopia. How many times has their currency revalued in the last 40 years? Or did you have some place else in mind? Venezuela? Canada? Venezuela has two H/C systems, one public, one private. You want something done fast and correctly, you go to private H/C providers, or to another country. If you don't mind waiting, in line for some things, you get H/C from the same people who cannot even get the trains from point A to point B on time and for a profit.

Other Social Democracies would hate it if the US nationalized Sick care. They would lose out on all that free innovation, funded by US patients/taxpayers, and created in free market system...what is left of it.

If you want "free" sick care in the US, I support your desire to pay for it yourself (oops...thats not free, now is it). Leave me the fuck out of your grand plans.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 15:43 | 1926890 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Umm... what does Swedish reevaluations have to do with anything? Is that like the US going off Breton-Woods or the Plaza Accord?

There are far better examples, just look at a study of outcomes, you are on very shakey ground defending any aspect of the US system. It truly sucks, worse outcomes, greater costs than any reasonable system.

Now, if the American people choose that they do not want "socialized medicine" fine by me, but those saying don't touch my Medicare are a bunch of fucking hypocrites.... Obamacare,  or is it Romneycare is a corporate welfare for the Insurance cos (in case you think I am defending that abortion of legislation)

You mistake me for someone wanting something you think I want. My only issue is when fucktards here at the Hedge try and tell me that "socialized medicine" is inferior, I call their bullshit.

(Funny but when asked directly, the majority in the US  support a single payer system, go figger)

Don't give me that free market shit and healthcare.... Unless Botox and plastic surgery is your idea of Healthcare.

Read up on what Salk did with his vaccine... Fat chance of that happening in the "Greed is good" era... 

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 13:10 | 1926023 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Hey, if the people here at the hedge that are mad as me at the system cannot even get their labels straight they are doomed to be fooled again....

And don't give me that bankrupt logic that the state is the problem... the problem is that we let the fucking sociopaths be in charge and make the rules.... Any examination of the data shows that from a regulatory perspective, the wheels started coming off under St. Ronnie.... Yep, deficets don't matter and don't worry, it'll trickle down....

"Greed is Good" is an excuse to plunder and no mantra to base a functioning society on.

Why don't you go fuck yoursefl and move to your liberatarian nirvana.... where was that again?  Ah, yes Somalia.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 13:18 | 1926068 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

Well-reasoned, well-argued, logically sound, persuasive, even humorous.

 

Your post is none of these things.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 13:25 | 1926106 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Oh, I'm sorry I did not rise to your expectations....I'll try harder next time.

 Now go off and fist yourself....

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 13:30 | 1926129 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Sooner or later, the mask slips.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 13:42 | 1926126 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

What a joke. Your criticism of the establishment is born of jealously. You wish you were Obama. You're pathetic and boring.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 13:47 | 1926199 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

If you think I support Obama, you are even a bigger fool than I had thought...

I don't bitch about Obama here because based on the commentary, none of the Obama haters would have a clue what I would be talking about... Most of  the Obamer haters here are cannot fathom that O is the *right* of Eisenhower and yet, the standard is to call him a Marxist or a socialist. Now that is truly rich (not to mention profoundly ignorant)

You asshats confuse that being aware that things are wrong and not right as being the same as understanding why they are not right...

Translation, even you blind squirrels find a nut or two every now and again...

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 13:53 | 1926232 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

You are intentionally misreading my comment so that you can steer things into Dem vs Rep crap. You covet the power Obama has and that is why you criticize him. Things would be so much better if you were in control. You are totally self-deluded.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 14:24 | 1926392 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Now look who is obfuscating.... 

And no, this has *nothing* to do with Dem vs. Rep., it has to do with actually having a clue about what is fucked up and how it got fucked up and not just throwing random labels at it....

FWIW, I am on record as having said, "I pity whoever wins the '08 election".... The country is ungovernable...

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 14:03 | 1926282 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Meh, you sound more like a retarded fish.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 14:29 | 1926417 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Would you like to have a rational discussion? Bring something to the table then, if you can.

My writing style is reflective.... articulate yourself properly, be nice and I will be in return.... Say stupid things like "left wing fascist" or  use ad hominems and you'll get called out and insulted back.. very simple eh?  

Now, what would you like to discuss, fuckface?

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 13:58 | 1926257 adr
adr's picture

You that group of people trying to go live by themselves off the land in Montana? They can probably live just fine for the next few hundred years without any intervention of the state because they will all help each other and kill anyone trying to take what is theirs.

The state is always the problem and why the state will probably label them as terrorists and wipe them out because they represent a threat to the state establishment of authority.

The only good authority is the authority you grant yourself to live your life in the way you wish without interference from the authority of others.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 15:15 | 1926709 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Why don't you...move to your liberatarian nirvana.... where was that again?  Ah, yes Somalia.

From the one who accuses others of not know wtf they are talking about. Just because Somalia has no govt of it's own, doesn't mean there is no government. Lot's of other imperialists having snooping around and bombing that country since that stupid Bob Geldoff cluster fuck.

I'll take Hong Kong for $500 Flak. The British empire largely left it alone until they handed it over to China. Better yet, I will work to swing the pendulum in the US back to it's classical liberal roots. You can move to Somalia, and force your agenda there. Be sure to send us some video of the event.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 15:45 | 1926903 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Don't let the door hit your ass on the way out....

Try not to get too political either while you are in HK. Just a heads up.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 13:08 | 1926006 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Tyranny is tyranny. All the labels are flags for the rabble to rally around. Divided they fall.

Look up the origin of the term "liberal" sometime.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 16:29 | 1927185 jmc8888
jmc8888's picture

Talk about clueless.  You or Benanke....which is one is more  I wonder?

Social Security, Medicare/Medicaid have nothing to do with where we are. 

Perpetual unemployment benefits? You mean for the economy that is broken by banksters? Last I checked they aren't perptual, so another idiot statement.  Lest you think people should die, like a good bankster whore propagandist suckerupper.

Transfer of private bank to gov't debt....well while being both sides, it is the conservatives who did this, idiot.  It's their mantra.  Dems joined in.

Mortgages to mirror foggers.....pure conservative ideology in action.  Not true conservatism, but what has passed and been voted in as conservatism the last 40 years.

 

The rest of the stuff, also mostly conservatives.  Project for a new american century, patriot act, all of those by the conservatives.

 

Quit dividing everybody on useless shit moron.  It's about imperial monetarism that has infected both sides. But somehow you can't grasp that, and have to grasp onto the propaganda, the banksters give you to blame people who aren't worth blaming, and in most of the above, are a reaction to keep people from dying from said imperial monetarism.

 

You do live in 1939 Germany, I wholly agree, but while both sides got us here, it is firmly the conservative playbook we've been following, with 'liberals' bending over and running it when in office.

But then again, liberal or conservative, both are getting their shit from imperial monetarism, so it's a false debate.  But you still don't get it.  SS/Medi have absolutely NOTHING to do with this process, it's the system, it's the fraud that was legitimized in this system.  Some people seem to think without medicare, medicaid, and social security, we wouldn't be here.  WRONG.  We'd STILL be exactly HERE, except those at the top would have even more, and the people would be dying in the streets...and since that promotes crime, we'd probably actually have even MORE of a police state, since when people starve, they start doing things out of desperation like breaking and entering, looting, so on and so forth.

The answer is Glass-Steagall, and ending the fraud, not throwing the poor, unemployed, sick, and elderly under the bus.  It's 2011, it's very easy to provide those things and still have prosperity.  Just not in bizarro imperial monetary world, where dumbasses beleive the sophistry and believe someone else less worthy took their prosperity away from them through 'giveaways'.  People are fucking morons.

Glass-Steagall

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 13:05 | 1925996 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

You're questioning religious faith; watch out.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 13:42 | 1926176 Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

Guess again Flakmeister. The USA spends over 40% of our tax revenues on entitlements. That is nearly as much ss Sweden, a self-described Socialist nation. The old America is dead, it's up to us to restore her.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 13:53 | 1926229 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Yep, I agree, Medicare is unsustainable in its current form....

SS is fine and fixable with modest changes...

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 14:01 | 1926270 adr
adr's picture

Nope, the state should never be in the business of providing social welfare because then social welfare becomes dependent on the sate instead of the authority of the individual to provide for himself. 

Government distribution of wealth is never a solution to any problem.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 14:34 | 1926456 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

We had a little system like you outlined, it was called "Laissez-faire Capitalism" and Dickens (most famously) wrote extensively about it....

I think I get it.... it is "sauve qui peut" in your little world...I sincerely hope it works out for you and based on principle, you would never take back from the system a penny more than you paid..

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 14:46 | 1926548 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Oh yeah, I should have brought up "tithing" as well....do you know what it means and why it existed?

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 17:23 | 1927445 eureka
eureka's picture

Yep - all that socialist liberalist spending gave you the US'ians sheeple the great US faith based taxpayer sponsored bankster military industrial complex which sucks the juice out of your balls every second of your life.

Don't ya just love liberalist socialist collectivist empires who preach that their uniquely individualist individuals are uniquely qualified to tell the entire rest of the world what the fuck to do and how the fuck to run their countries, lives and brains?

US socialist liberalist Empire UBER ALLES! Sieg Heil to the dummies who don't know the difference between left right up down and their own personal interests versus those of their billionaire elite SLAVE MASTERS.

Symmetry, fellows. Symmetry. Or stupidity. Your choice, your roast.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:52 | 1925644 CPL
CPL's picture

CC debt isn't cheap, it's averages at 38.5% for the US consumer.  How is that cheap?

 

Most of them don't have a line of credit anymore.  Most of them have under water homes and are deeply in debt.

 

California had the highest level of consumer borrowings with $78,000 of average indebtedness per capita, followed by Nevada’s $73,000, the New York Fed said. That compares with a national average of $49,000.

That's just CC's, Cars, Boats...junk loans basically.  In total it's 11.7 trillion dollars in junk debt. 

 

Average household income is $49,445 in the US.  Right now if reviewing averages, that's a 1:1 ratio of debt to equity with a 445 bucks extra.

 

And I haven't even included housing in that.  Just junk debt.  A third grader could understand the setup.

 

If they want to fix the system, remove ALL, not some credit facilities for US consumers, looking at the numbers it'll be good for all of them.  It will be at that point the US citizen becomes sovereign again, not before hand.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:34 | 1925530 duo
duo's picture

one of the lowest volume weeks of the year.  No better time to get a short squeeze going with volatile data.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:19 | 1925415 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

Must be the $100 oil that gets them jumping for joy!

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:33 | 1925525 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Just think what kind of confidence boost we will get when there is a war with Iran.  Oil at $200 would make the sheep positively giddy.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:49 | 1925903 chunga
chunga's picture

About the only thing I am happy about is Iraq Vet Scott Olsen has been released from the hospital.

He still has difficulty speaking but was interviewed yesterday.

Interview with Scott Olsen About His Injury from the Police Attack on Occupy Oakland: video

Authorities are still investigating the matter....

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 13:20 | 1926077 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

and who's investigating the authorities?

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 13:26 | 1926114 chunga
chunga's picture

anonymous

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:35 | 1925541 Hober Mallow
Hober Mallow's picture

Its the denial phase:

"we had enough, things will be better"

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:45 | 1925580 TomGa
TomGa's picture

Precisely. especially when coupled with "debt fatigue."

It's the attitude of, "Well hell, if I'm going bankrupt, I might as well buy as much useless crap as I can before they cut my cards off...."

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:37 | 1925852 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

and it's very important to buy USELESS crap because just normal crap won't help you as much when the economy and your job go into the toilet.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:15 | 1925766 c'mon man
c'mon man's picture

Hey guys..this CNBC "Team Hopium" thing is really working....

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 13:51 | 1926209 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

Why, this jives nicely with the steady decline of housing prices. Nothing makes a body feel better than to see the water rising around the old homestead (value).

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:14 | 1925378 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Can't spell confidence without the con.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:20 | 1925423 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

One world grifterment.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:28 | 1925495 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

GriFterment Experience -  Getting strung along and spending money with no hope of a happy ending. A po' mans GFE ......

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:57 | 1925673 JR
JR's picture

Here’s how Nathan’s Economic Edge views Black Friday sales:

“No person in their right mind would believe for a second that retail sales actually rose 16% in just one year; anytime you see numbers that large, you should immediately think of Bernie Madoff and your scam detecting radar should begin screaming at you. First of all, if we go back and look at prior years, this scam is the same scam the NRF (National Retail Federation) runs every year, and after their wild releases meant to create a shopping frenzy, reality is never what they proclaim. Secondly, this was a survey. Surveys are notoriously inaccurate, and they don’t survey the businesses that have failed in the past year! Also, sales are measured in dollars, not units, thus the outrageous production of money creates inflation – inflation does not equal growth in sales, it equals growth in money production!”

Incidentally, notes Nate, M1 is up about 17% from a year ago...”not too far from that Black Friday Sales Figure, no?” How much of that went into Christmas stimulus from Uncle Sam, ultimately to be transferred into the stockings of the big corporations?

Actually, the way I see it in part, the Black Friday hype of unheard price discounts was so wide and wild that its high sales generation may actually indicate recession, i.e., that people are so strapped for cash and credit that they were out buying essentials they otherwise couldn’t afford, and no matter how big the crowd, they were willing to wade through.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 13:03 | 1925981 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

Good point. People are facing 13% inflation based on the Turkey index http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Latest-News-Wires/2011/1123/Thanksgiving-dinner-Why-is-it-more-expensive .

So based on M1 expansion, we still have another 4% inflation to go in the next month or so...Notice one of the big black friday shopping videos was Walmart $1.28 towels.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 13:26 | 1926117 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

Not to split hairs, but if these individuals consider hand-towels to be an "essential", what is a non-essential? Gold, guns, ammo, food, and ... towels

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 13:45 | 1926191 JR
JR's picture

Absolutely. Consumer confidence is not going to lead the market.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 14:06 | 1926292 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

And take the con out of congress and replace it with pro. You get progress.

Of course I am fooling myself

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 14:09 | 1926298 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

It's progress or congress but not both

Sorry double post

Long doughnuts this morning. Short coffee. (the real stuff, not coffee futures)

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:14 | 1925380 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

Bye bye "crisis" (what crisis?).

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:14 | 1925381 SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

I'm confident this number is a joke. 

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:17 | 1925401 CPL
CPL's picture

No it's real.  You have to find the right time to ask the questions to the pleebs.  Usually while they are high as a kite on shopping.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:47 | 1925610 SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

Buying trinkets at Walmart at midnight does skew one's judgement I'm guessing. 

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:40 | 1925864 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

"right now I'm so high, you're hallucinating." - WIllie Nelson to Stephen Colbert 2009 Chirstmas Special    

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 15:41 | 1926879 gookempucky
gookempucky's picture

Yes it is a big joke......all illusion as the CC # is of course staged.  The poll surveys 1000 people over 4 weeks an lo and behold its magic........total BS. This link says it is total BULLSHIT.

http://www.pollingreport.com/consumer.htm

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:14 | 1925382 Racer
Racer's picture

Out of work people were not available for comment on their conditions due to lack of any available connection due to unaffordability

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:14 | 1925383 Ostapuk Ivano
Ostapuk Ivano's picture

Rigged

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:14 | 1925384 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Why isn't the Dow down to 8,000 by now?

 

Dow is green for the year, thanks to retail stocks and shopping mall REITS holding up the tape.

U.S. consumers are indestructable.

Wonder how high we go when things actually improve?

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:21 | 1925406 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'DOW is green for the year'....GEE what an accomplishment! And ONLY cost $16 trillion to do it! Audit The Federal Reserve Reveals 16 Trillion in Secret Bailouts | Ron Paul 2012 | Sound Money, Peace and Liberty

The DOW is also at 1990 levels, inflation adjusted more like back in the 80's....but hey, YOU'RE impressed at least!

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:21 | 1925440 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Robo,

You "forgot" that WTI has increased more than the DOW.  So has silver and gold.  When things actually improve, WTI goes into the stratosphere and crushes the 99% and a few airlines.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:23 | 1925461 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Why isn't the Dow down to 8,000 by now?

Let me guess: because things aren't nearly as bad as ZH doomers make them out to be, and if people would just adopt an appropriate level of can-do American attitude they would be living a fabulous consumer lifestyle that is the birth-right of all Americans?

Close?

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:53 | 1925651 homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

Let's see how "good" things are without trillions of Banana Ben bucks..

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:31 | 1925832 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

if people would just adopt an appropriate level of can-do American attitude

 

The "can-do American attitude" is that one can do anything in America on the back of unrepayable debt.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:24 | 1925463 somethingisrotten
somethingisrotten's picture

MoMo the lizard. 

He is nowhere to be found when red is everywhere; but haunts this board with EVERY dead cat bounce.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:43 | 1925586 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Wrong question. you missed a zero. It should be "why isn't Dow 80000 by now". With all the printed money, people aren't just buying towels for 1$, they will buy any thing available in store.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:03 | 1925716 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

The Dow is green for the year? It is a whopping +.07% for the year and it is the end of November. We've made it to the promise land!

Even better, look at the 10year +16%! Holy macaroni! 16% in 10 years! Our cup runneth over!

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:10 | 1925747 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Oh noes! The Dow is now negative for the year!

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:51 | 1925909 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

really, in jan 2000 the dow was 11763.  The dow wish it made 16% in 10 years.  In 12 years its made jack.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:58 | 1925954 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Oh noes! What? 12 years nothing? Well, it is now green for the year. What else do you serfs want? Eat your peas!

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:08 | 1925740 JR
JR's picture

The Fed’s below-inflation interest rate policy last year, an invisible tax to levitate Wall Street’s ill-gotten gains, costs savers and investors roughly $350 billion a year, according to Todd E. Petzel, chief investment officer at Offit Capital Advisors. This invisible tax is more than 2 percent of gross domestic product and almost 3 percent of disposable personal income.

It’s broad daylight robbery of Main Street, pure and simple. Is this any way in the long run to sustain a viable economy on Main?

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:47 | 1925872 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

"US consumers are indestructable"

So THAT'S why we constantly beat the shit out of them

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:43 | 1925879 karzai_luver
karzai_luver's picture

Robo

 

You are correct, I give you props.

The us CONsumer is indestructable. They buy worthless shit with wild-eyed drooling abandon.

 

I must slaute them. 0/sarc.

 

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:14 | 1925385 Gubbmint Cheese
Gubbmint Cheese's picture

I call bullshit...

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:16 | 1925386 Idiocracy
Idiocracy's picture

Brought to you by the Ministry of Economics Truthiness

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:15 | 1925387 zonkie
zonkie's picture

Do they have any reason for this sudden jump?  This seems like an outlier. 

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:15 | 1925389 B-rock
B-rock's picture

All this is data as of Nov.15...  Before the recent shit hit the fan...

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:29 | 1925506 mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

Also, before "Black Friday," so we can't account it to the feeding frenzy.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:32 | 1925518 mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

And also, also:

"I got information--new shit has come to light and--shit, man!"

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:48 | 1925623 Biggvs
Biggvs's picture

Exactly - lagging indicator of the rally that happened Oct to mid-Nov.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:00 | 1925698 taraxias
taraxias's picture

The rally was manufactured. The data was also manufactured as a means of putting a veil of legitimacy on the shenanigans. 

Think man, think...........

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 13:15 | 1926046 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

You mean the Santa Claus rally happened in Oct this year???? What a bummer! Coal for Robo and his irrational bulltard butt-buddies!

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:15 | 1925390 imapopulistnow
imapopulistnow's picture

 

it's the price of gas.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:16 | 1925397 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Hovering just below $4, where I live anyway. Optimistic!

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:16 | 1925391 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The consumer is confident! And why shouldnt they be? After all, the mailbox is stuffed full of credit card apps!

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:16 | 1925394 vegas
vegas's picture

Hope & Change is alive?

Maybe people are getting more positive the more B. Soetero looks like a one-termer.

That or they are so depressed they figure WTF.

 

http://vegasxau.blogspot.com

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:16 | 1925395 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

How does pepper-spray factor into this increase in consumer confidence?

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:20 | 1925430 sabra1
sabra1's picture

because pepper spray is a vegetable!

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:50 | 1925634 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Ricin, also a vegetable! And how about mustard gas! VEGETABLE! Hooray!

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:22 | 1925803 James T. Kirk
James T. Kirk's picture

A new food group - weaponized condiments - "hey honey, will you please pass the pepper spray? The starving neighbors are trying to pry off our security screen door again."

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:20 | 1925434 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

As long as you're not on the receiving end. Could be worse, it could be molotov season.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:16 | 1925398 Number 156
Number 156's picture

David Lerah found a new job after all.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:17 | 1925402 youngman
youngman's picture

It must be the NBA coming to an agreement...yeah thats it....or they are making so much money on their Italian Bonds...yeah thats it....

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:18 | 1925409 DB Cooper
DB Cooper's picture

Barclays developing a new ETF based on 3x consumer confidence volatility!

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:18 | 1925411 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

HFTs running to tackle the short stops today.  

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:19 | 1925416 sabra1
sabra1's picture

the survey question asks, are you confident the economy is in the crapper!

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:19 | 1925417 death_to_fed_tyranny
death_to_fed_tyranny's picture

LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIESLIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! LIES! AD NAUSEAM! AD INFINITUM!

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:19 | 1925418 citrine
citrine's picture

This reminded me of Tyler's expression as of few months back:" American economic reporting is rapidly becoming a bigger joke than Chinese Ministry of Truth"

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:25 | 1925478 Oztralian
Oztralian's picture

Yet there's still a tremendous bias to say these same data are credible only when it seems to fit ZH's agenda. Fancy that

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 13:09 | 1925480 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I'm old and heard first hand all the jokes about Pravda.

The joke's on me.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:19 | 1925419 The Ram
The Ram's picture

Where's the data?  Seems to me that we are all so perky given a mess in Europe and the bankrupcy of America's largest airline!  Hmmm....I suppose this is what we call Cognative Dissonance.  Of course, the National Socialist Party was telling the German people of the 'great victories' as Russian and Allied troops closed within miles of Berlin.

Who should we give the Nobel to for this one?

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:19 | 1925420 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

I don't know about anyone else but my shopping is done. Watch December, especially returns the day after xmas if you want the real story.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:21 | 1925446 sabra1
sabra1's picture

store returns are never reported!!!!

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:20 | 1925425 Ellesmere
Ellesmere's picture

What a crock...

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:20 | 1925428 ZeroPoint
ZeroPoint's picture

Can we rename this the ignorant sheep index?

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:21 | 1925438 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

The threat of an iranian war , nuclear fallout from fukushima and losing their home/job has already been priced in by the consumer so its blue sky from here. Things can only get better. Yipeee.

This index will hit 10 when the average mope prices in the FEMA camps though.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:25 | 1925476 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Basically, their biggest fear is the local feetsball team losing next weekend. The American consumer wouldn't know a REAL threat if it bit them in the ass.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:49 | 1925901 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

agree, the average uninformed citizen, just humming along to " Its the end of the world as we know it, and I feel fine"....

 

Im long stupidity. You never lose on that position.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:21 | 1925441 No Mas
No Mas's picture

Tyler, you guys sell a lot of fear, and you have some really good repeat customers, but most of the world just ain't buyin'.  Things are not great of course, but things aren't falling apart and people who are out and about understand this to the be fact. 

Hard as it is for the ZH Sheeple to imagine, the world is at worst stablizing.  The worst case scenarios such as the end of the Euro and war in the middle east are really just repeats of past environments which were not only survivable, but were periods of real growth.  Sad to say it ZH Sheeple, but look at the markets.  Green is good ya know.  And it reflects a picture of the world I hope you will one day learn to appreciate. 

If not, oh well.  But mark my words; the markets will be higher come the end of December and much higher this time next year.  And the condition of the world will reflect those simple facts!

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:23 | 1925453 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

I'll take the other side of your trades all day.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:42 | 1925502 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Green is good ya know. And it reflects a picture of the world I hope you will one day learn to appreciate.

 

the markets will be higher...and the condition of the world will reflect those simple facts!

Please read Confessions of an Economic Hitman and then get back to us on that appreciation bit.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:24 | 1925466 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

He called us "ZH sheeple."

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:25 | 1925475 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Who cares what you think.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:29 | 1925490 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

A hundred dollars says you're not posting on this forum the December after next, troll. The stock market has been declining for the past +10 years now, adjusted for inflation.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:28 | 1925499 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Marked.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:28 | 1925504 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

look at the markets?...OK...  They havent done dick for over a decade.  Jan 14 2000 Dow at 11723... what is it now 12 years later?  

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:51 | 1925639 dhengineer
dhengineer's picture

True, and back then the dollar index was around 120 or so.  It's less than 80 now, so the dollar has lost about a third of its buying power in that time.  In other words, the Doh should be north of 17000 just to break even since Jan 2000...

Meanwhile, gold was at, what, $275 or so in 2000?  Man, I hate it when my investments go up by a factor of six in a decade, don't you?  Nyuk, nyuk!

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:33 | 1925520 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Oddly i prefer not to trust people who pepper spray one another for $2 waffle makers.

I prefer math The numbers don't add up.

From $80T to $210T in debt over the last 9 years. Does that sound stabilizing to you?

Does global annual 12% growth in debt to fuel 4% growth in GDP sound stabilizing to you?

Green is GOOD. Correlations of 1 are even better. Worst month in 30 yrs, followed by best month in 40 years, followed by worst Thanksgiving week ever...Does that sound stabilizing to you?

Good luck buying the dip on the break up of the EUR.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:54 | 1925657 Ragnar24
Ragnar24's picture

I was told there would be no math.

The "No Mas" crowd has apparently been educated in the Congressman Pete Stark school of economics: "...debt is a reflection of a nation's wealth."

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 15:11 | 1926693 Jena
Jena's picture

There is always math, even and especially when you are told there won't be.

No Mas can see the sunny side of life as long as he chooses but I doubt he's gotten the stock tips that Stark got during his Congressional tenure that made it easy to promulgate those lies.

ZH sheeple? The difference is that we skeptics say "Bah!" where others willingly say "baaaa!"

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:05 | 1925723 taraxias
taraxias's picture

You go girl.

 

(lizzy, you post some of the most awesome stuff on here. Lot's of green arrows for you.)

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:35 | 1925543 mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

Why are you even here?  Idiot.  Glittering jewel of colossal ignorance.  Are you really as stupid as you make yourself sound, or are you just trolling out of boredom?

If you had any inkling of what Zero Hedge did and does, you would know that it takes, among other things, a bifurcated approach to viewing what is and what will be.

While showing and suggesting what should be happening during conventional times, it is simultaneously showing how THESE ARE NOT CONVENTIONAL TIMES!  And if you think they are, then it is you who is the poster child for "sheeple..."

Zero Hedge does the best job possible of navigating through the madness and projecting the madnesses' possible outcomes.

I motherfucking DARE you to do better.  And stay honest.

 

Asshole.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:37 | 1925552 xcehn
xcehn's picture

Things ARE obviously falling apart for those that care to look beyond their nose.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:39 | 1925563 quacker
quacker's picture

This period will be known as the Great Blizzard of Bullshit.

Where every single month, the actual situation on the ground for the bulk of the people is worse - jobs not keeping up with population growth, wages not keeping up with price increases, and millions of families eating the principal of their savings.

But at the exact same time that things are getting worse, the media, government, and handful of assclowns are engaged in perpetual jawboning about how things are getting better and better.

Each month only more total debt in the system. Each month the 10% that directly and indirectly suckle the teats of the banking cartel pull further away from the 90% who are literally falling into poverty and debt slavery.

We can take our pick on what to focus on. The hocus pocus of higher markets via money printing and manipulation gives you a hardon. The unprecedented number of people now living in their cars doesn't seem to make your radar. Or the unprecedented number on food stamps. Or the 17 million jobs we're short. Or the gap between the haves and have nots which has rocketed way past the gap we had in 1929.

So jawbone your bullshit. Meanwhile the actual situation on the ground for 90% of the people just gets worse, and worse, and worse.

 

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:03 | 1925713 mtomato2
mtomato2's picture

Eeeeeeggselent post.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:54 | 1925656 prodigious_idea
prodigious_idea's picture

Impressive voting stats you got there

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 12:47 | 1925892 JOYFUL
JOYFUL's picture

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/hank-paulson-tipped-goldman-led-plunge-pro...

in case you missed my response to yur serial trolling over on that thread. Chingate Cabron!

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 13:18 | 1926066 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

My, my. We have a winner of the 'Epitome of Brainwashed American Corportocracy Indoctrination' Award for 2011.........

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:21 | 1925443 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

It is the Love Actually season of Peace on Earth and Goodwill Towards Men.

In otherwards buy crap you don't need, with money you don't have, for people you don't like.

Now off to put soft circles around my Tiffany's catalogue picks.

 

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:21 | 1925445 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

I think this consumer confidence number is the most manipulated of all the government numbers. Totally unbelievable with housing prices and unemployment at the current levels.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:22 | 1925451 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Short SPX till 850

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:25 | 1925469 dcb
dcb's picture

well price of gas is down.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:25 | 1925472 The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

They aparently aren't confident in the banking sector

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:26 | 1925484 Johnny Yuma
Johnny Yuma's picture

They'll do anything in desperation when they know the game is over. 

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:27 | 1925491 xcehn
xcehn's picture

BULLSHIT.  Not even drugs could raise the confidence level.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:27 | 1925494 Normalcy Bias
Normalcy Bias's picture

...And in other news from the Ministry of Truth, the unemployment rate is only 9%, and the rate of inflation is only 3.53%! Expect these numbers to become even rosier as the 2012 election approaches, despite an economy sinking further into the abyss...

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:30 | 1925510 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Tough to short this market.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:30 | 1925512 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

Maybe liquor sales are up 16% as well.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:33 | 1925522 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

yep, being poor will now be referred to as being on a diet.  who doesnt feel better after being on a diet.

 

You know, lose all that excess weight from your home, investments, belongings, etc.  Gee I feel so free and light, Thank you uncle sam, all that prsoeprity was really weighing my down.

Tue, 11/29/2011 - 11:39 | 1925550 Threeggg
Threeggg's picture

Is this to counteract that Shiller housing number thingy ?

I don't believe this number is correct !

Why do I think there is no confidence ? Because there is no honesty !

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