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Consumer Confidence Plummets To May 1980 Level

Tyler Durden's picture




 

UMichigan consumer confidence just printed at 54.9, on expectations of 63.0. This is the lowest since May 1980. And what's worse, inflation expectations were unchanged. Looks like those high inflation expectations are starting to get anchored. In the meantime, with the Chairsatan saying to expect at least two more years of recession, is this really a surprise to anyone?

Short Term:

Longer Term:

 

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Fri, 08/12/2011 - 09:59 | 1553964 caerus
caerus's picture

bullish

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 11:04 | 1554263 pemdas
pemdas's picture

Bullish is right!  May 1980 was a great time to buy stocks.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 15:29 | 1555168 eisley79
eisley79's picture

i'd rather buy and hold their treasuries...

 

http://www.mbaa.org/ResearchandForecasts/MarketEnvironment/TreasuryYield...

 

but keep our mortgages rofl

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:01 | 1553966 Paralympic Equity
Paralympic Equity's picture

Buy the news?

Expectations: 45.7 vs. Exp. 55.3 (Prev. 56.0), lowest since May 1980

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:01 | 1553967 Deepskyy
Deepskyy's picture

Transitory Dip, buy it while you can.

 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:05 | 1553992 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

Nothing more bullish than a double dip. Double the buying opportunities! BBTFDs

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:02 | 1553971 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Can't have a con without confidence.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:08 | 1554013 janus
janus's picture

these days i think you have that backward

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:59 | 1554243 Caught Stealing
Caught Stealing's picture

+1 The truth is scary.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:02 | 1553972 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

This consumer is confident consumer confidence will go much lower.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:13 | 1554033 DavidC
DavidC's picture

And this consumer, confident in your consumer confidence as a consumer, is also confident.

DavidC

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:35 | 1554123 snowball777
snowball777's picture

I am confident that any consumers with confidence will be consumed.

 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 11:01 | 1554250 Calculated_Risk
Calculated_Risk's picture

shit, you guys forced me to realize my coffee hasn't kicked in =/

time for another cup...

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 12:36 | 1554552 KowPie
KowPie's picture

As a consumer with confidence in your ability to confidently consume coffee I am confident that your consumption will lead to comprehension of consumer confidence conditions and completely clear the issue of confident comsumption by consumers which clears up the current consumers confidence while consuming question. Hope that helps.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 15:34 | 1555256 Pay Day Today
Pay Day Today's picture

GULP. My confidence has been completely consumed. Get me outta here.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:02 | 1553974 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Another success of QE1 and QE2.  Looks like QE3 will finish us off for good.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:06 | 1553977 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Welcome back Carter.

Banzai?....Banzai?...Banzai?...http://thestarceleb.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/wbc-cast.jpg

 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:10 | 1554016 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

and horshack's now the principal

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:03 | 1553978 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Hard to believe there is accuracy in self reporting; she is a size 16 and he is actually the size of a small gherkin.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:03 | 1553979 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

Confidenceless recovery.

Anyone think we have been in a recovery these past few years ?

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:03 | 1553980 doomandbloom
doomandbloom's picture

party like its 1980...remember it was all uphill after that..

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:32 | 1554113 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

If all the money printers carry on with their business, this scenario is not so unlikely...

But the DOW/Gold-ratio is going to decline anyway.

The only stocks i´d consider buying right now are undervalued pm miners as the surge in gold hasn´t been priced in until now, agriculture (fertilizers, farming, seeds), and maybe oil - basicly all inflation related trades. Oil stocks of companies NOT involved in the middle east (Petrobras, Statoil, Lukoil etc.) might do well as oil prices would explode if the UN is stupid enough to go to war with Syria.

Additionally some emerging market stocks might be cheap (PE below 5 for some).

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:36 | 1554127 snowball777
snowball777's picture

You mean the national debt?

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 11:19 | 1554323 thewhitelion
thewhitelion's picture

I can't wait for chicks in big hair.  Stirrup pants I could live without.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:03 | 1553981 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

The consumer con is finally dented

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:04 | 1553983 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Lazy Amerikans, can't even shop well. 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:07 | 1554005 Deepskyy
Deepskyy's picture

With the exception of the Tiffany's and Nordstrom crowd, which is of course now being cheered mightily on FBN.  Once Melissa said "Cramer is up next" I changed the channel.

 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:37 | 1554133 snowball777
snowball777's picture

that's it...fling the bling to the four winds, that'll keep the looters busy.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:07 | 1554006 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

That is because they need parking spots closer to the ice cream freezers so they don't have to walk so far.  I'll just park my Hoverround right under a soft serve ice cream machine and...gllllluuuggghhhmmmmmmmmmm so good!

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:39 | 1554148 snowball777
snowball777's picture

And both the chair and your glucose meter "at no cost to you".

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 13:42 | 1554788 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

For those thinking this will play out like the post-1980 period again:

 

It's just too bad that so many multinationals have built factories in China & Mexico, and IT centers in India & Bangladesh, closing down the rusting shadows of factories and buildings they used to run in the U.S.

It's too bad that unlike 1980, NAFTA is in place, and China has MFN Trade Status (with more nations getting the MFN label soon), so that there will be more incentives to move facilities to even more places (other than the U.S.).

Wait...maybe Intel will shut down that 3 billion dollar plant it just built in China, and bring those jobs back to the U.S. */sarc

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 15:40 | 1555274 Pay Day Today
Pay Day Today's picture

And throughout the good times of the 1990's oil was sitting at under $20/barrel. That is never ever happening again. Well, not as long as industrialised society survives.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:04 | 1553984 trillion_dollar...
trillion_dollar_deficit's picture

So, ObAmA+ is Carter then.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 23:26 | 1556375 snowball777
snowball777's picture

My sweater smells like peas.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:04 | 1553987 entendance
entendance's picture

<The entire "story" of the Bull market is stocks rests on one reed: permanently rising corporate profits.

Too bad those profits are set to fall.>

http://www.entendance.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=17&t=783&p=18711#p18711

 

 

 

 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:05 | 1553989 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

UMichigan is in the geography that might slant it's NUMBering skills a little towards the dark side, ne?

Anyways, NUMBer and NUMBer, DUMBer and DUMBer. 

I hear the whine of Stuka's on Monday morning open in Japan. eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.........

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/08/04/many-drafts/

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 13:46 | 1554559 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Scientific sampling (for those of you who haven't taken a college level statistics class, you may not want to agree or you may even be hostile to the notion that surveys or polling can be 'scientific' or 'accurate,' but it is highly accurate if proper protocol is conformed to) has nothing to do with geography, or the fact that the University of Michigan conducts this survey.

Proper scientific sampling is able to survey groups as small as 1,200 individuals, and if the protocol used is reliable and repeatable, that group can produce results that are nearly identical to what 310,000,000 individuals would have expressed, in terms of collective sentiment.

Michigan is only represented in this survey to the extent that its population was included, along with the other states, as a % of total population, in the survey methodology.

 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:05 | 1553991 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

May 1980....hmmm. Weren't the PMs is a "bubble then, too?

Just wondering how long it will take a CNBS empty suit, talking head to make this case...

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:05 | 1553995 Mediocritas
Mediocritas's picture

Stagflation is SO hot right now.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:06 | 1554000 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

It's the new black!

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:12 | 1554009 Mercury
Mercury's picture

It's stagflatiolicious!

I like the ass-backwards elaphonkey.  What comes out of the donkey's ass slides down and up the elephant's trunk....and into our laps!  Bipartisan teamwork!

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:47 | 1554192 Helmholtz Watson
Helmholtz Watson's picture

It's funny because it works on so many levels

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:05 | 1553996 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Brian Sack has his grubby fingers all in the market today.  They'll continue to buy equities outright to try to keep this from collapsing into the weekend.

I love the fact that the DOW futures were down huge at 3:00 am and then reversed 400 points into the open.  Golly.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:55 | 1554226 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Last few days there is

1.) a good data point (which ramps the market, with the gentle help of Mr. Sack)

2.) a bad data point (which nobody really talks about on the MSM.  Instead discussion is left for ZH, and consequences for later).

3.) a rumor (which feeds the underlying pessimism created by 2. and momentarily triggers a sell-off)

4.) a few contradictory reports in quick succession (which juggle the indices up and down).

 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 11:48 | 1554409 Liquid Courage
Liquid Courage's picture

Woah! Distracting avatar there, but I get your points ... I mean point. Da Boyz always try to jiggle ... I mean juggle the indices up and down. (And side to side?)

But keep in mind the chart painters are no strangers to TA either. Key levels are run, bearish patterns are violated (viz the large H&S a few weeks back) and patterns are - as you intimate - carefully painted. Check out the sexy little Reverse H&S that's emerged this week. Oooo la la ... nice little bottom, there!

Years of watching all this has made a total cynic of me. What can be done, will be done. This is a pretty sophisticated operation, n'est pas?

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:06 | 1553997 janus
janus's picture

i fucking knew it!!! trap -- massive bloodbath till algos kick in at, what, TD, about two your time?

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:57 | 1554236 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Algos are mostly active at beginning and end of day.  But some are active all day long. 

After 2pm comes the mutual fund redemptions usually. 

The technicals of the S&P are actually still bullish like yesterday.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 11:05 | 1554268 janus
janus's picture

thank you, slaughterer, i was just rereading the article and considering my failure.  good thing i'm still practicing practicing.  i did, however, get the opening jump about right (thought it would be about 50 higher) so called it at its peak.  so that almost evened out my play money.

i really haven't begun to try and understand what 'technicals' really means -- i know what they mean in a general sense; only, i'd like to root around the plumbing.  where could i look when i want to try and dig into that?  i understand that they're important; but it's hard for me to lean on a crutch whose construction i do not comprehend.

what percentage of traders would you say depend primarily (if rather exclusively) on technicals?

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 11:20 | 1554327 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

John J. Murphy, Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets

Many technical traders have been doing very well overall with the recent H&S pattern being confirmed perfectly.  

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 13:20 | 1554693 janus
janus's picture

stupid question: h&s is head and shoulders...right?  if so, i've actually been learning a bit about that.  it sort of fits in well with the ideas i'm forming -- and they're easy enough even i've been able to start picking them out...since i figured out what moving averages are.

the things that tangle me are the two vectors that narrow and then force a movement...never know how to project a movement at those break or pivot or whatever points.

thanks again.

and thanks for the tits...reminds me of my early twenties...mine sag so wretchedly now.

janus

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 11:43 | 1554396 ReactionToClose...
ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

am no expert by any means ...... but good monthly at your option subsription site is DecisionPoint (Rhodes Reprt, TMcClellan, John Murphy, Sy Harding, Aden Sisters.   others, RRUssell, many credible folks in TA land).... been following it diligently since late 90s.   

Even they admit 'volume' is not what it used to be as an indicator of any relevance with what has happened in mkt.  So pure price action and it's oscillation and advance/decline momentum analysis are the focus.

Problem with Tech Analysis it is like trying to drive via your rearview mirror .. and today so much is HFT & massive liquidity coming out nowhere    you really have to think out your logic and even then it is a guess.  But TA gives non-opinionated look under the surface of water level to try to understand somewhat the various currents at work in the stream. But for awhile now get feeling that algos or dark pools  purposely manipulate TA for windowdressing of masses & media .... used to think this was conspiratorial ... not any more.  That is why this site, ZH, continues to attract, it (TD) is trying to 'look around' the computer driven 'posturing' that is growing and probably now forever dominant. 

E.g.,  a good chunk of past 1-2 years, while 'market' went up broadly ... it seeemed clearly 'managed' ... and you could almost see this in TA ... the 'action' seemed to frame to closely to 'texct book' TA pattterns, etc..  Too much to go into here ... you will see if you delve into it ....

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 12:06 | 1554469 Liquid Courage
Liquid Courage's picture

What you say seems a bit contradictory at first glance, but I think I know what you're getting at. As I used to say long, long ago, on another board (in another galaxy far, far away): you don't need a conspiracy to make a dog chase a cat, just to let the dog off the leash.

And of course with Dark Pools and Super-Computers we have genetically modified Pit Bulls on steroids that are the size of small elephants.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 13:26 | 1554722 janus
janus's picture

again, if nothing else is gained from my time studying finance, i'll have a whole bevy of quips and sage nuggets to carry round for a lifetime...i'm stealin em all!

hands up, the huckleberry's in town!

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 12:18 | 1554508 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

I'm done with it, myself.  I lost half a years' profits in the past week's gyrations.  In my mind this market is broken, unnatural, a mad cow foaming with aftosa at the maw.  I can't keep abreast of the next policy scam.  Good luck.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 13:38 | 1554707 janus
janus's picture

Reaction...,

good show.  that was goddam brilliant! (and i mean that as a complement)...you are being followed!

i think i'm developing a thing for kolalas (sp?)

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:06 | 1553998 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Bad economic data along with short selling is now banned. Everyone head to Disney and be happy damn it!

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 11:26 | 1554344 caerus
caerus's picture

lol...don't touch!

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:06 | 1553999 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Our country loses the AAA rating and consumer sentiment was expected to rise? What is amazing is that the market has recovered so much ground. Truly an insane financial world we live in.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:11 | 1554026 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Huge up days are common in bear markets.  It's the institutional side trying to sucker retail in, before they dump.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:50 | 1554204 SRV - ES339
SRV - ES339's picture

Johnny, Johnny, Johnny... good call, in a marginally sane environment (not this one though)!

Peeling back the onion on the up days, you eventually get to the maniacal bearded one... feeding primary dealers with cash to float the market... until treasuries tank, then it's let the market crash to drive investment to bonds... until the market crashes, then...

http://www.bofunk.com/video/5245/head_spinning_kid.html

 

 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 11:23 | 1554340 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

If we close green today, the IBD 100 followers will see a Cup & Handle pattern which will sucker them in on Monday. 

The trap is being set today. 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:06 | 1554001 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yep.  It is either 1980 or 1929, place you bets - the casino is open!

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:07 | 1554008 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

1980 was a breeze compared to this mess

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:19 | 1554052 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Agreed.  The Reagan military build-up created many new jobs in the US in the 1980s.  So did the telecom boom and tech boom that came later in the decade and into the 1990s.  I don't see any industry creating massive numbers of good new jobs in the US these days.

It really is about creation of good paying jobs.  That (plus reasonable spending levels) would help address a lot of problems.  As it is, bureaucrats want to paper over our debt problems and kick the can down the road.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:24 | 1554067 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

We need the next Al Gore to invent another Internet.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:36 | 1554128 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

You AmeriKans should elect Ron Paul. Then you might become AmeriCans again. And i´d actually consider buying stocks of companies doing busines solely in the US.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:40 | 1554158 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

We are still not going to buy Saabs, dude.

They are some ugly shit.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 11:05 | 1554264 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

Saabs = cars?

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 13:37 | 1554773 janus
janus's picture

tracy jordan invented the interwebs live on 30 Rock...everybody saw it

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 23:29 | 1556383 snowball777
snowball777's picture

"It's a system of tubes!"

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 11:54 | 1554434 ReactionToClose...
ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

agree..... we are looking at 40 to 60 years to maybe entire post WW2 capital market order at risk versus 1980.  We could still make mistakes then and survive, etc.   no longer ..... we are transitioning to something beyond the so long dominant post-WW2 order.  This is more the Bretton Woods and Nixon cursing De Gaulle  .... way too many things at work.

First time in my adult life I see USA as vulnerable and if so, then even strong emerging markets like Brazil (was just there few weeks ago .... looked fine as far as I could tell on 1 week biz trip), then even the solid developing markets that did all the right things learning from their/our previous mistakes are likely to get drawn into this vortex. 

Personal view, the US$ anchor is the fundnamental tectonic plate ... it it shifts ...... my brain cannot imagine what follows.  That is one of my complaints about Federal Reserve & Geithner ... there is no visible Plan B or C .... you would think for nat'l econ security .... but then we fund terrorism via Saudi Arabia trying to keep itself in power with radical buy-out money , etc via our oil dependence, etc..   What maybe made sense in 1950s or 1960s is long gone ...

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 13:33 | 1554758 janus
janus's picture

AH! HA! caught you again, you furry llittle thing...and again, the effort was worth it.  can't get far with those tiny little legs and those senses all dulled to dixe on eucalyptus (sp?) leaves; and it's a good thing too.

that's some good thinkin by my count

three is a magic number/

yes it is, it's a magic number/

well, the brain and the soul and the body/

faith and hope and Charity/

the past and the present and the Future give you three/

and it's a magic number,

janus

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:06 | 1554002 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Huoban, can you spare a Renminbi? 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:06 | 1554004 Kina
Kina's picture

Retail sales rise, consumer confidence plummets.

 

Either consumers became addicted to spending no matter what during the free credit years, or they have decided to party like there is no tomorrow.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:09 | 1554019 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Retail sales include gas & food, so grain of salt on the retail numbers.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:16 | 1554043 Caviar Emptor
Fri, 08/12/2011 - 18:44 | 1555845 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

a brutal mixture of heat, drought or flooding has taken a toll on the corn, soybeans and wheat grown on American farms.

thanks Caviar, good to keep track. . .

I'll just add that the majority of those three crops are GMO, and not really fit for human consumption over time, but sure, consumers are free to choose.

military owning the weather, hmm. . . after almost a week of blue skies, they're spraying heavy here, white-out skies tomorrow, *nods*

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:11 | 1554025 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Low dollar = brisk retail sales to foreign shoppers with dough. See it every day in NYC. Tourists packing every flagship store. 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:14 | 1554034 Sandy15
Sandy15's picture

Retail sales increasing has to do with prices going up more than people having the confidence to buy.

 

No adjustments are made for inflated prices.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:08 | 1554010 Kina
Kina's picture

CAC up 3% because ????

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:09 | 1554018 Paralympic Equity
Paralympic Equity's picture

Short selling bananas

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:08 | 1554014 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

The most worthless number out there that people no trade on since '09...

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:24 | 1554071 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Unless it's positive...in which case it's the most important rip-snorting bull indicator ever.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:09 | 1554015 Cman5000
Cman5000's picture

Looks like were headed down for now ... Let's get this party started

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:32 | 1554108 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Is that your face there on the floor of the NYSE?

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:09 | 1554020 Slap That Taco
Slap That Taco's picture

Death cross, bitchez!

Had to do at least one "bitchez" comment.

Here's another one:

Automatic spell check, bitchez!

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:10 | 1554022 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

FYI - the average UMich consumer confidence during a recession is around 72-73.  We're at 54.9

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:11 | 1554027 voltaic
voltaic's picture

Retail sales up and consumer confidence down. I'm confused. The consumer is spending more and enjoying it less, or consumer isworried about the future so they are partying like it's 1999? Makes perfect sense..... in bizarroworld.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:37 | 1554138 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I know that as I'm tucking in to my iPad here at breakfast, I'm worried about where I'll get the scratch for the next one. Maybe I'll have to let them repo my PWCs? No big, winter's on it's way. Nom Nom: iPad=crazy delicious!

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:12 | 1554028 Whatta
Whatta's picture

With the news headlines that we are fed...wtf is there to be confident about?

Defaults, downgrades, double-dips, unemployment, Greek insolvency, PIIGS, London riots, flash violence, Libya, Syria, Iran, tsunamis, earthquakes, nuke meltdowns, No Jobs available......

The one bright spot, maybe Obumhole will be gone before too much longer. Yep, replace the "D" suit in the WH with a "R" suit.....things would be much better...LOL.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 11:16 | 1554307 Caught Stealing
Caught Stealing's picture

Buck up, little campers. Its not all bad news out there. Be happy in this headline..."Obama Promises Jobs In Michigan After A Week Of Turmoil."

Read the article, and you'll be buzzed by the peace-of-mind:

http://politics.blogs.foxnews.com/2011/08/11/obama-promises-jobs-michiga...

Somebody pass me the absinthe...I need something to take off the edge...

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:12 | 1554029 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

As denial turns to concern and increasingly to alarm and eve, yes, anger, U Mich goes Bitch

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:12 | 1554030 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

As long as this doesn't bring back Dorothy Hamel and the Ice Capades

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:19 | 1554053 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

mad max was made in 1980,  coincidince ...or something else?

 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:26 | 1554081 ZippyDooDah
ZippyDooDah's picture

When Mad Max was made it was a fairly shocking movie.  If it were re-made today, it would have to look more like The Road.  More like total system melt-down than peripheral nasty patch.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:15 | 1554036 Kina
Kina's picture

Looks like a nice place for gold to bounce.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:15 | 1554037 goldfreak
goldfreak's picture

off topic, but has anyone seen this list of FBI's "suspicious activity"?

http://oathkeepers.org/oath/2011/08/10/7769/

insisting on paying with cash?

 

buying meals ready to eat?

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:15 | 1554038 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

54.9 (expected 63.5, previous 63.7) … 14% drop vs 0.003% expected drop

HOLY MOTHER OF GOD !!

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:35 | 1554125 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

RALLY TIME! <monkey jumping up and down>

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:15 | 1554040 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

"...is this really a surprise to anyone?"

Not me, certainly.  If I worked in an ice cream store, I'd call this double dip "Obama's"

http://www.stockfood.co.uk/images-pictures/Double%20Scoop%20Chocolate%20...

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:15 | 1554041 gdogus erectus
gdogus erectus's picture

Must be time to vacation!

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:16 | 1554042 machineh
machineh's picture

Time for president Barry Carter to deliver his 'malaise' speech.

Hope he's not attacked by a giant rabbit while boating at the Vineyard.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:17 | 1554047 RobD
RobD's picture

I was a senior in High School in 1980. Seemed like good times to me back then, playing sports, cruisin for chicks, drinking beer(when we could find someone to buy for us).....good times man. Of coarse I had no clue what was going on outside my little town(population 1000).

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 11:22 | 1554304 optimator
optimator's picture

I was a senior in High School in 1957.  Seemed like good times but the country was in a recession.  Had a part time job at ninety cents an hour, five packs of cigarettes were a bit less than a buck, gas averaged twenty cents a gallon.  Gas wars sometimes brought it down to thirteen cents a gallon.  A quart of Rrrruppert Knickerbocker was .78.   And I had never heard of the Federal Reserve.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:18 | 1554048 MoneyWise
MoneyWise's picture

It's actually pretty high, if you take into consideration

all this: S-P downgrade, Debt ceiling crisis, EZ

Banks and Markets turmoil

and on and on, I'm surprise that anyone actually out

there shopping, this 54.9, probably Alcohol

only shopping and confidence :))))

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:36 | 1554130 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

I was thinking the same thing.  It's wasn't actually zero.  So, it' must be more gooder than expected.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:17 | 1554050 digalert
digalert's picture

TEA party rocks!

Were it not for the TEA party, we'd be talking about hokum hope-n'-change instead of facing reality.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 11:05 | 1554266 SRV - ES339
SRV - ES339's picture

You know, real people are losing serious money over your little hissy fit prone party... you are seriously fucked up to think for one minute that this is reality... 15 months left, have fun kids! 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 11:26 | 1554349 karzai_luver
karzai_luver's picture

If you think the Tea Party is in anyway facing reality then you have not looked around.

 

The BEST budget plan from any Tea Party symp I have seen is reality only if you are waiting for the magic rabbit from uranus to start dropping unicorn/rabbit combo.

 

 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 13:45 | 1554812 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

 "TEA party rocks!"

How old are you, 14? 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:19 | 1554055 Racer
Racer's picture

Looks like it is vacuum tubes BTFD time again cos the consumer/people are irrelevant to this "market"/churnfest

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:19 | 1554056 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

This is a reflection of the political landscape which is abysmal. Unfortunately for the economics professors and other temple merchants, the economic is part of the political, and visa versa.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:20 | 1554058 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

I am shocked, shocked at this number after hearing endlessly on tout TV how "lower gas prices" were "a big plus for the consumer".

Apparently consumers didn't notice the $0.20/gallon drop, and remain focused on the fact that gas is 50% higher than it was this time last year (thanks to the marvelously successful QE2).

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:22 | 1554063 Backcreek
Backcreek's picture

Isn't this a result of the debt ceiling impass, more than anything?  Expect a rebound next month.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:22 | 1554064 Cman5000
Cman5000's picture

No i haven't seen that so everyone that is preparing it could be "suspicious activity"? Clowns

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:23 | 1554066 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

I can't believe he signaled 2 more years of ZIRP, that's just irresponsible.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:24 | 1554069 wang (not verified)
wang's picture

somone should get this message to the throngs of consumers at the big box stores, the travellers packed like sardines on airplanes, the crowds lining the streets of Manhattan on a Thursday nite

or just visit an Apple store and see how depressed the consumer is

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:31 | 1554072 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Key difference from 1980: there was growth!Big big difference. And growth was one of the key drivers of inflation unlike now where we have contraction along side rising prices. 

Also: housing was strong, real incomes were still on the rise, manufacturing was vibrant, and monetary policy had only taken the first steps down the slippery slope to hell

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:33 | 1554117 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

And there was Big Hair ...

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:37 | 1554132 gdogus erectus
gdogus erectus's picture

And Ditto's!

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:43 | 1554171 caerus
caerus's picture

and pac-man

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 14:14 | 1554924 carbonduke
carbonduke's picture

and back then the US was the largest creditor nation. look what can be accomplished in 30 years. 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:27 | 1554077 Kina
Kina's picture

Everything is totally broken. Corruption reigns supreme over every sphere of American life.

 

Banks can manipulate commodities and markets at will becuase they own the SEC and CFTC and probably every congressman. There is no fear of the law or regulation by any banker. Naked short a million years supply of silver, no worries, done. Pocket multi million bonuses given by taxpayer bailouts, because they can.

 

America is a totally broken country. And Europe is not far behind...the AIDS that is bankers has infected everything.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:29 | 1554089 youngman
youngman's picture

As long as the credit cards keep working....bring it on...when the banks finally shut them off...then worry..which I think we will see in the banks next quarter

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:29 | 1554090 Rikki-Tikki-Tavi
Rikki-Tikki-Tavi's picture

Impressive updating speed from Wikipedia:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_market_crashes

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:29 | 1554092 paul mansfield
paul mansfield's picture

I was wondering if zero hedge stand by their '$2000 quote for gold in less than a month - with near 100% certainity'?

think you lot are top notch,

thanks

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:31 | 1554094 economists_do_i...
economists_do_it_with_models's picture

Looking at the chart, the lowest confidence levels provided some of the BEST buying opportunities.  Contrarian indicator.  The lower the number, the closer we are to the bottom.  It's not like it's going to go from 54 to 3 and everyone is going to vow to not leave their house -- just sitting inside eating their canned food, counting their lead bullets, and polishing their shiny gold.  The world will keep spinning.  Always does.  Someway.  Somehow.

People will continue to go to work, buy groceries, and watch Jersey Shore/etc.

Ask 9 out of 10 people on the street what the consumer confidence number printed at today and they will be like, "HUH?"  Only people heavily interested in finances care about such things.  The average person is oblivious.  They don't know what the VIX is.  They don't care about muni bond ratings or potential Italian bank failures.

Speaking of vacuum tubes, it's good/healthy for all of us to step outside the one we live in once in a while.  There's more to life than ES futures.  Just saying.  How long has it been since you've been to the beach or for a walk in the park?

On a side note regarding demographics, as baby boomers pass away, that could provide a big economic boost as they pass on their inheritance.  Most sheeple like to live paycheck to paycheck and BLOW any extra money they have.  Give them $10k when some gray-haired person bites the dust, and it will find it's way into the economy quite quickly.  Ipads for everyone...  I wouldn't be surprised to see the gov't change the rules relating to inheritance taxes either.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 12:09 | 1554482 dvsteenk
dvsteenk's picture

how can you know if the 1980 bottom will hold this time?

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:31 | 1554100 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

I like that silver is holding above $38.50/oz. Perhaps all the paper selling is being matched by physical buying.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:31 | 1554106 djsmps
djsmps's picture

Great news. The DOW is up over 100. This economy is going to blow your socks off.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:32 | 1554109 Peter K
Peter K's picture

Michigan in the shitter. How does he do it. Oh wait..... it's the luck of the O'Bama Irish.

 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 13:10 | 1554649 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

This has nothing to do with Michigan, other than the University of Michigan B School has traditionally conducted this survey, and it's one of the most accurate historically in gauging the mood of consumers across the nation -

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) Definition

 

Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers

The monthly Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers gauge how consumers feel the economic environment will change. The survey's Index of Consumer Expectations is an official component of the US Index of Leading Economic Indicators.


Investopedia explains Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - MCSI
The preliminary report, which includes about 60% of total survey results, is released around the 10th of each month. A final report for the prior month is released on the first of the month. The index is becoming more and more useful for investors because it gives a snapshot of whether consumers feel like spending money.
Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:40 | 1554152 Cman5000
Cman5000's picture

Off topic also Senior Turkey official: We expect Syria to immediately halt its violent crackdown. I think Turkey may send troops into Syria ...

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:42 | 1554166 ColoradoNugget
ColoradoNugget's picture

May, 1980?  That was the month that Mount St. Helens exploded.  Just sayin'.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:43 | 1554169 marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

so...the markets rise on a negligible claims print (that won't even be accurate until next week) and a rise in spending that is relevant only in the realm of statistical anomalies, and I  read on the DXY site the eurobanks somehow magically got better overnight...yet this and the impending Q2 GDP downsizing get shrugged off, at least for now. which leads me to wonder, are there any actual human interaction with wall street anymore, or has it been completely turned over to skynet, scanning headlines, growing more self aware and about ready to unleash judgment day, the economic version? what are all those guys in the pit, looking uber stressed and screaming into their blackberry's really doing, are they really just a bunch of out of work soap actors wall street hired on to make it look as if the humans are still involved? I'm not a trader but it would seem to me in my laymen understanding of these matters that there is some serious twilight zone shit going on...

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 10:53 | 1554216 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

stocks will follow all the way back to 1982,  it was based on inflated price only?

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 11:18 | 1554317 toady
toady's picture

I hate it when I'm called a 'consumer'.

I always thought I was a citizen, then I found out I was just a consumer, a useless eater.

Does anybody remember what the economy was before it was 'consumer driven'? Any ideas how to get that back?

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 11:33 | 1554367 karzai_luver
karzai_luver's picture

it has been consumer driven for ever. However the consumers used to have jobs and rising dollars to spend so that's your problem.

 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 11:49 | 1554414 dvsteenk
dvsteenk's picture

very odd close in european markets, futures jumping up like crazy the second it closed

already preparing next week's short squeeze perhaps?

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 12:16 | 1554499 iNull
Fri, 08/12/2011 - 13:05 | 1554623 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

must wait   un til after ny lnch hour for the selling to commence..!

they have to make it appear like a real market .

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 13:29 | 1554739 actour22
actour22's picture

you can think there is going to be inflation all you want but until the job force starts pushing back up against 5 % there are little inflationary pressures. The fact that people think there is going to be this massive inflatin and interest rates going up is because of all the campaigns out there to sell gold.. Every radio station on the quarter hour for the last two years.. I have never heard of any thing called a safe haven investment that moves 10% a week.. that is as stupid as calling oil a hedge for you portfolio.. We all know if will happen and one day good news will abound and gold will drop 300-400 dollars in a week..not a matter of if but when..

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 14:04 | 1554882 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Confidence. LMAO.

The only people confident are those trying to Spin the news, working on Wall Street or trying to sell you some crap...like a house you can't afford...or a new car you don't need.

 

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 14:12 | 1554911 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Advertising has us chasing cars and clothes, working jobs we hate so we can buy shit we don't need (and won't be able to afford - thanks, Bernank/Jeetner). We're the middle children of history, man.

 

It's only after we've lost everything that we're free to do anything.

The things you own end up owning you.

 

Sticking feathers up your butt does not make you a chicken.

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 14:54 | 1555107 oldnbroke
oldnbroke's picture

My wife and I have spent a great amount of fiat dollars in the past year or so. It has been spent on getting prepared for what is coming. I am sure this adds to the consumer con. report. I wonder if this is a good thing?

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 15:16 | 1555200 johnjb32
johnjb32's picture

Bullish! No, I don't think so. This is warning signs for all of us. We are in times that have never been encountered before. There is global systemic debt that is impossible to pay off, and I would say we should not invest in the market anymore and feed the monster that has been created. Sell stock and invest in tangible real goods like gold, silver or anything other real and not just paper created out of thin air.

Don't fall for Wall Street's bullshit.

 

http://www.collapsenet.com/154.html

Fri, 08/12/2011 - 18:42 | 1555840 warchopper
warchopper's picture

i've been going to Best Buy and have noticed that there is minimal foot traffic in the store. malls seem pretty dead too. just a matter of time before retailers start going under en masse.

Sat, 08/13/2011 - 02:39 | 1556575 yang46
yang46's picture


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