Consumer Confidence Plummets To May 1980 Level

Tyler Durden's picture

UMichigan consumer confidence just printed at 54.9, on expectations of 63.0. This is the lowest since May 1980. And what's worse, inflation expectations were unchanged. Looks like those high inflation expectations are starting to get anchored. In the meantime, with the Chairsatan saying to expect at least two more years of recession, is this really a surprise to anyone?

Short Term:

Longer Term:

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pemdas's picture

Bullish is right!  May 1980 was a great time to buy stocks.

eisley79's picture

i'd rather buy and hold their treasuries...


but keep our mortgages rofl

Paralympic Equity's picture

Buy the news?

Expectations: 45.7 vs. Exp. 55.3 (Prev. 56.0), lowest since May 1980

Deepskyy's picture

Transitory Dip, buy it while you can.


Conrad Murray's picture

Nothing more bullish than a double dip. Double the buying opportunities! BBTFDs

hedgeless_horseman's picture

Can't have a con without confidence.

janus's picture

these days i think you have that backward

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

This consumer is confident consumer confidence will go much lower.

DavidC's picture

And this consumer, confident in your consumer confidence as a consumer, is also confident.


snowball777's picture

I am confident that any consumers with confidence will be consumed.


Calculated_Risk's picture

shit, you guys forced me to realize my coffee hasn't kicked in =/

time for another cup...

KowPie's picture

As a consumer with confidence in your ability to confidently consume coffee I am confident that your consumption will lead to comprehension of consumer confidence conditions and completely clear the issue of confident comsumption by consumers which clears up the current consumers confidence while consuming question. Hope that helps.

Pay Day Today's picture

GULP. My confidence has been completely consumed. Get me outta here.

John Law Lives's picture

Another success of QE1 and QE2.  Looks like QE3 will finish us off for good.

DaveyJones's picture

and horshack's now the principal

lizzy36's picture

Hard to believe there is accuracy in self reporting; she is a size 16 and he is actually the size of a small gherkin.

PaperBear's picture

Confidenceless recovery.

Anyone think we have been in a recovery these past few years ?

doomandbloom's picture

party like its 1980...remember it was all uphill after that..

swissaustrian's picture

If all the money printers carry on with their business, this scenario is not so unlikely...

But the DOW/Gold-ratio is going to decline anyway.

The only stocks i´d consider buying right now are undervalued pm miners as the surge in gold hasn´t been priced in until now, agriculture (fertilizers, farming, seeds), and maybe oil - basicly all inflation related trades. Oil stocks of companies NOT involved in the middle east (Petrobras, Statoil, Lukoil etc.) might do well as oil prices would explode if the UN is stupid enough to go to war with Syria.

Additionally some emerging market stocks might be cheap (PE below 5 for some).

snowball777's picture

You mean the national debt?

thewhitelion's picture

I can't wait for chicks in big hair.  Stirrup pants I could live without.

DaveyJones's picture

The consumer con is finally dented

Caviar Emptor's picture

Lazy Amerikans, can't even shop well. 

Deepskyy's picture

With the exception of the Tiffany's and Nordstrom crowd, which is of course now being cheered mightily on FBN.  Once Melissa said "Cramer is up next" I changed the channel.


snowball777's picture

that's it...fling the bling to the four winds, that'll keep the looters busy.

Temporalist's picture

That is because they need parking spots closer to the ice cream freezers so they don't have to walk so far.  I'll just park my Hoverround right under a soft serve ice cream machine and...gllllluuuggghhhmmmmmmmmmm so good!

snowball777's picture

And both the chair and your glucose meter "at no cost to you".

TruthInSunshine's picture

For those thinking this will play out like the post-1980 period again:


It's just too bad that so many multinationals have built factories in China & Mexico, and IT centers in India & Bangladesh, closing down the rusting shadows of factories and buildings they used to run in the U.S.

It's too bad that unlike 1980, NAFTA is in place, and China has MFN Trade Status (with more nations getting the MFN label soon), so that there will be more incentives to move facilities to even more places (other than the U.S.).

Wait...maybe Intel will shut down that 3 billion dollar plant it just built in China, and bring those jobs back to the U.S. */sarc

Pay Day Today's picture

And throughout the good times of the 1990's oil was sitting at under $20/barrel. That is never ever happening again. Well, not as long as industrialised society survives.

trillion_dollar_deficit's picture

So, ObAmA+ is Carter then.

entendance's picture

<The entire "story" of the Bull market is stocks rests on one reed: permanently rising corporate profits.

Too bad those profits are set to fall.>





Oh regional Indian's picture

UMichigan is in the geography that might slant it's NUMBering skills a little towards the dark side, ne?

Anyways, NUMBer and NUMBer, DUMBer and DUMBer. 

I hear the whine of Stuka's on Monday morning open in Japan. eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee.........


TruthInSunshine's picture

Scientific sampling (for those of you who haven't taken a college level statistics class, you may not want to agree or you may even be hostile to the notion that surveys or polling can be 'scientific' or 'accurate,' but it is highly accurate if proper protocol is conformed to) has nothing to do with geography, or the fact that the University of Michigan conducts this survey.

Proper scientific sampling is able to survey groups as small as 1,200 individuals, and if the protocol used is reliable and repeatable, that group can produce results that are nearly identical to what 310,000,000 individuals would have expressed, in terms of collective sentiment.

Michigan is only represented in this survey to the extent that its population was included, along with the other states, as a % of total population, in the survey methodology.


Turd Ferguson's picture

May 1980....hmmm. Weren't the PMs is a "bubble then, too?

Just wondering how long it will take a CNBS empty suit, talking head to make this case...

Mediocritas's picture

Stagflation is SO hot right now.

Mercury's picture

It's stagflatiolicious!

I like the ass-backwards elaphonkey.  What comes out of the donkey's ass slides down and up the elephant's trunk....and into our laps!  Bipartisan teamwork!

Helmholtz Watson's picture

It's funny because it works on so many levels

Boilermaker's picture

Brian Sack has his grubby fingers all in the market today.  They'll continue to buy equities outright to try to keep this from collapsing into the weekend.

I love the fact that the DOW futures were down huge at 3:00 am and then reversed 400 points into the open.  Golly.

slaughterer's picture

Last few days there is

1.) a good data point (which ramps the market, with the gentle help of Mr. Sack)

2.) a bad data point (which nobody really talks about on the MSM.  Instead discussion is left for ZH, and consequences for later).

3.) a rumor (which feeds the underlying pessimism created by 2. and momentarily triggers a sell-off)

4.) a few contradictory reports in quick succession (which juggle the indices up and down).


Liquid Courage's picture

Woah! Distracting avatar there, but I get your points ... I mean point. Da Boyz always try to jiggle ... I mean juggle the indices up and down. (And side to side?)

But keep in mind the chart painters are no strangers to TA either. Key levels are run, bearish patterns are violated (viz the large H&S a few weeks back) and patterns are - as you intimate - carefully painted. Check out the sexy little Reverse H&S that's emerged this week. Oooo la la ... nice little bottom, there!

Years of watching all this has made a total cynic of me. What can be done, will be done. This is a pretty sophisticated operation, n'est pas?

janus's picture

i fucking knew it!!! trap -- massive bloodbath till algos kick in at, what, TD, about two your time?

slaughterer's picture

Algos are mostly active at beginning and end of day.  But some are active all day long. 

After 2pm comes the mutual fund redemptions usually. 

The technicals of the S&P are actually still bullish like yesterday.

janus's picture

thank you, slaughterer, i was just rereading the article and considering my failure.  good thing i'm still practicing practicing.  i did, however, get the opening jump about right (thought it would be about 50 higher) so called it at its peak.  so that almost evened out my play money.

i really haven't begun to try and understand what 'technicals' really means -- i know what they mean in a general sense; only, i'd like to root around the plumbing.  where could i look when i want to try and dig into that?  i understand that they're important; but it's hard for me to lean on a crutch whose construction i do not comprehend.

what percentage of traders would you say depend primarily (if rather exclusively) on technicals?

slaughterer's picture

John J. Murphy, Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets

Many technical traders have been doing very well overall with the recent H&S pattern being confirmed perfectly.  

janus's picture

stupid question: h&s is head and shoulders...right?  if so, i've actually been learning a bit about that.  it sort of fits in well with the ideas i'm forming -- and they're easy enough even i've been able to start picking them out...since i figured out what moving averages are.

the things that tangle me are the two vectors that narrow and then force a movement...never know how to project a movement at those break or pivot or whatever points.

thanks again.

and thanks for the tits...reminds me of my early twenties...mine sag so wretchedly now.