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Consumer Confidence Plunges
Just as expected, with the June FOMC coming in fast and furious, the data better start coming in bad to quite bad. Sure enough, here is consumer confidence (not from UMich, but from the Confidence Board, because we need at least two indicators for every economic data point to maintain the Schrodingerian Baffle With Bullshit illusion long and strong) setting us off on the right, er, wrong path, with a 3 sigma miss to expectations of 69.6, dropping precipitously from 69.2 to 64.9, the lowest since January, the third miss in a row, and undoing all the "gains" from the recent bipolar UMichigan consumer confidence which in turn soared for no reason whatsoever. Finally, 12 month inflation expectations drop from 5.8% to 5.6% - not good for a central bank hoping to get consumers to spend or gamble. This is either good or bad for stocks.
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And the Dow rockets. Looks like the QE3 Hopium trade is back in town.
INSANITY~!
We have two bill auctions today that's all. Every bill auction, the mkt does this like clockwork.
Nothing Thurs or Fri.
Buy the open sell the close, again.
If you can't dazzle them with idiocy, baffle them with Krugman.
Aren't those synonyms?
What's that? It's a bird, it's a plane, no, it's the NEW QE SUPER-RALLY!
Just need some more HORRIBLE DATA to get this SUPER-RALLY to make new all-time highs!
What gets me is the unequal reaction to any news. If Greece is more likely to exit the Euro in a few weeks or California more likely to go bankrupt in a few months that's too far away to bother the market. If something makes it slightly more likely to change the FOMC wording in a few weeks, now that's cause for a serious rally.
Food Stamp consumer confidence polls 4 whatever reason never make MSM headlines.
No shit, and add in the Spainish implosion. At this rate an alien invasion is worth what, 200+ points?
Who filled in the consumer confidence questionairy last month?
I didn't receive a invitation... yet again...
Yea, I'm sure our economy will be consumed just like zombie man in Florida did to the homeless guy.
I guess the 500 people in the UMich sentiment survey are doing a lot better than the 5000 people in the confidence survey.
I never trust U of Michigan numbers, I also like IBD for consumer confidence.
This is good for stocks, US markets continue rising thanks to Uncle Ben (from today's thetrader 'allthatmatters':
Cs.com.cn
The United States is well poised to withstand any fallout from Europe’s escalating debt crisis, a top Federal Reserve executive told the Wall Street Journal. Charles Plosser, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, said the United States should comfortably weather the debt crisis because its financial institutions have already cut their European exposure. Moreover, he said on the Journal’s Monday online edition that
“a flood of liquidity” into the United States, as investors seek safer assets, is more likely “than the drying up of liquidity.”
“a flood of liquidity” into the United States, as investors seek safer assets, is more likely “than the drying up of liquidity.”
confidence restored - so money will be washed on american shore for free
and no new risky/bad debt will be created.
I love how the top story on Bloomberg this morning was attributing today's rally to the anticipation of the confidence survey printing a good number, then when it misses by five points, the market doesn't even blink.
What is this market you speak of?
i am always suspicious of consumer confidence numbers. There are broad trends, but the MoM changes are often just noise.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/05/29/case-shiller-house-price-index-rises-0-09-mom-phoenix-az-leads-the-recovery/
must be good for stocks, dows up 120 points
It's up now..but my guess is that they are going to be selling off all the gains by early afternoon.
Looks like the bots have a lot of those pent-up "buying electrons" from the long weekend.
News of any kind has little effect, currently.
Bullish!
BULLSHIT!
Fixed it for ya
This is good news for QEVIIII
If you want to get a true read on Consumer confidence, talk to the folks you see at the Gas station and the grocery store.
Now I know why the centrally planned Dow Jones is up 130 points.
Too fucking funny.
Ps....
Fuck you little weasel timmy and Ben,and your Exchange Stabilization Fund.
Should be called the EMF....the Echange Manipulation Fund.
"This is either good or bad for stocks". Gotta luv it. lol
60% of the time it work everytme.
It just tends to sting the nostrils
Good is "good" for stocks.
Bad is even "better" for stocks.
But horrible is "the best" for stocks (except for FaceFuck).
And....PRESTO, market explodes higher.
I just never get tired of this. Never.
Hey - it's patriotic to make the stock markets go up.
Wave the flag and shake your pom poms, bitchez!
Sadly, some actually believe that to be true. Even if Bernake confessed to manipulating the market higher, most would ignorantly approve of it.
Consumer confidence numbers plunged because of the declining stock market. The magic solution? Jackhammer it back up to turn those frowns upside-down.
Sickening.
These types of days are my favorites. Stocks ripping, treasuries flat, commodities up, corporates up, gold up, VIX up, Reits up.
Makes perfect sense. Everything is broke! BUY EVERYTHING!
In all fairness, REITs are always up. There could be a worldwide plague and a earth-destroying tsunami and the FED would pump the REITs.
Evidently, that's been determined to be the last line of defense.
Lol
My favorite chart of the Twist LTRO Shout rally was CMG. Perfect 45 angle up for four fucking months! You could chart the next day with a damn ruler! FAKE!
Well if you frontrun QE doesnt that diminish the possiblity for QE? Benny boy cant print with the dow at all time highs.
Benny will print whenever the mood suits him, he prints for Mainstreet, not Wallstreet <Sarc off>
But! Why the Markets soar?
When cab drivers and shoe shine boys start talking about "further quantitative easing" my bullshit barometer says the likelihood of it actually happening is decreasing by the day. QE is becoming the sort of conversational topic that everyone is talking about like the sightings of Elvis.
QE is dead and won't come back.
QE syndrome = Elvis syndrome
UM total fraud crock numbers just like the BLS. All lefty media bullshit.
Rumors of QE now far more useful than any actual QE, which has negative side effects. No, theyll just keep presenting the muppets with rumors of QE, better than the real thing by far.
Hopefully the little accompanying pop in oil will be enough to make bernanke at least think about it.
Although this looks like a pump and hold day. Somehow I think a PM fade is coming. Hope so, cause right now my azz if full of NY Fed jizz.
Wow, this is a super rally on basically not so good news, incredible. Friday futures closed way down but NO, the markets must open with a bang after the 3 day holiday weekend. can't have a downer market Tues morning.
Meanwhile, the Euro, went nowhere.
Got a dollar in change today with 'End the Fed' written on it, coming out of ole George's mouth.
Since I live in MN also, it was probably one of mine. Where did you get it?
Why do they even need QE when the ESF,PPT, manipulates the hell out of the stock market anyway. It's an absolute fraud, the whole thing. If that scum bag, smug bastard Bernanke was to come out tomorrow and say no more QE ever, I mean it, you just watch the stock market and everything else tank. How long can this charade go on for? The world is in a mess but they still spill out their sickening propoganda on marketwatch, yahoo etc. It doesn't make sense any more, it never did but now its crazier than ever, its as if they've resorted to chaos theory thinking to surprise everyone, no matter how irrational or brazen it is, the surprise and unpredicatble nature of their warped actions is keeping this ponzi going but for how much longer? When do the laws of nature intervene and take hold from this fake reality which we currently reside in? If they can create realities that are expressed in green and red so easily at a whim, irrespective of reality then we could just as easily express a reality where debt was written off and we were not beholden to these scam artists, this is the trouble they define the parameters with which we have to work in, this needn't be so!
Such absolute BS. Stocks up with Spanish yields climbing U.S. consumer confidence plunging. Yep, makes complete sense.
All of Spain's bank probably need to raise capital. Hardly surprising to thos that read ZH.
How can Bankia report a 41 million EUR profit in 2011 I wonder, and is anyone going to be taken to court for this pathetic cover-up. Just a 3.3 billion EUR loss in 2011, that's all.
There will be big disappointment when there is no QE announcement in June. The data is not yet bad enough to warrant it. Dudley and others on the Fed have said as much. If non-farm payrolls come in as expected or even modestly lower, there's no justifiable case for LSAP. That's not even taking into account the political dynamics which are most loudly against any Fed intervention now. And if June passes, it's going to be difficult to start QE while the election season is in full gear barring a Eurozone collapse.
And more importantly, oil is still far too high to justify QE. QE would likely juice oil prices wiping out the benefit of QE.
It could be the algos are working against them, they wanted red but the algos misread something and up it goes, oh the poetic justice!
It's so slow here we don't even get surveyed.
The Roman empire didn't fall in a day. With so much negative sentiment out there we're bound to have some sharp short covering rallies in-between larger legs down in equities. That's probably all this is. The alchemists who created this disaster are blissfully ignorant that the Hopium they've spread undergoes fission to generate Disappointium, all in due time.
Fed = Hopium = Humpty Dumpty
The populace is increaingly closer to a resounding rejection of these increasingly self-evident Bank of Government political systems. That is where the tipping point, and biggest risks are.
We should all be thankful our accounts haven't completely vaporized already!
+infinity
When we go back 100+ years to this time, we'll call it "When banks ruled the world". The "Bank of Government" is probably the best way to put why things are going into the shitter.
It's not left or right; it's by the banks, for the banks. Nothing more.
That's why the populace is starting to get antsy. Stress levels, the lust for "profit"....all higher. People are starting to realize they are just commodities now; and when that realization is at 30-40%....that's when SHTF.
The Roman empire didn't fall in a day.
http://austrianeconomics.wikia.com/wiki/Money_and_banking_in_Ancient_Rom... :
"
... The inflation is hard to document, but one good indicator are the payments a
Roman legionary would receive:
Emperor yearly pay in Denarii
Augustus (27 BC - 14 AD) 225
Domitian (81 - 96) 300
Commodus (176 - 192) 375
Septimus Severus (193 - 211) 500
Caracalla (198 - 217) 750
..."
Ah to be a Confidence Man on the Confidence Board.
Bernenke already has his QE3 announcement types up and tucked in his desk. He's only waiting for the right moment to pull it out and read it to us, much like Lincoln did witht he Emancipation Proclamation. It's not a question of if, it's only a question of when.
I didn't realize it was high enough to plunge.