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Consumer Confidence Plunges To 39.8 From 45.4 On Expectations Of A Bump; Lowest Since March 2009

Tyler Durden's picture





 

So much for the US consumer confidencing [sic] his way up to buying houses and other stuff. even with 2000x leverage. According to the Conference Board, October Consumer Confidence, plunged from a downward revised 45.4 to 39.8, the lowest since March 2009. The forecast looked for an increase to 46.0. Current conditions were even more horrendous, dropping to 26.3. And with crude on its way back to $100 (thank you Dudley) and gas back to $4.00, this number is not going higher any time soon. But wait, there's more: the jobs plentiful dropped from 5.5 to 3.4, jobs hard to get also dropped from 50 to 46.1, and the cherry on top is that 1 Year inflation expectations are, well, anchored at 5.8% versus 5.7% previously.

 


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Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:10 | Link to Comment Belarus
Belarus's picture

Those HFT machines are sure working hard today: you can just see them try to "grab" and hold. 

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:33 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

HFT, Predaor Drones; this is 1984....

At least we know that we can't wave a white flag, the machines don't respect shit.

We must fight on and take the monie supply back from the Terminators.

BUY SILVER

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:11 | Link to Comment PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

F**CKING HOLY MOTHER OF GOD !!

QE3, QE3, QE3, QE3, QE3, QE3, QE3, QE3, QE3, QE3.

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:15 | Link to Comment Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

With oil back at $93 dollars a barrel heading into Christmas?  I don't think so. But I really hope that MoFo Bernanke does waste another 500 billion buying MBS. Because that would be the end...

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:36 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

He promised a refi bill, the banks need capital.  It will be the perfect cover for the next bailout.  QE 3 is in the pipeline.  It will begin distribution in a month or two.

The oil price does not matter to Bernanke.  Oil is not a part of core inflation.  It is "too volatile" to measure.  And Ivy league economists do not believe in peak resources.  The world is covered in oil to them.

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 11:24 | Link to Comment ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

If oil goes to $200 a barrel and stays there for a year, inflation is just "transitory" as it measures the rate of change, not an absolute level.

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:15 | Link to Comment Belarus
Belarus's picture

QE is at least 50% of the reason consumer confidence is low: a recent survey showed most people DON'T trust financial insitituions, which therefore means they also know every market is rigged; the Harvard job market, the "free" market, and the stock market. 

If they QE with the WTI around 93 it's going to get ugly. They better at least turn those HFT's off for awhile and let the market do what is so badly wants to do before they unleash another LSAP.

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:17 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

The biflation conundrum: we're either on the brink of recession or the brink of killer inflation at all times. 

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 11:25 | Link to Comment ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

As it always is when a currency system collapses - the tools used to fight a collapsing economy lead to hyperinflation.  Happens every time.

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:15 | Link to Comment drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

QE3 will only come if there's a huge market drop. consumer confidence is a lagging indicator that means next to nothing

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:34 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I'm feeling sad, so I'm going to go to the mall and max out my newest credit card.

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:57 | Link to Comment Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

As a consumer of puts, I feel confident.

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:12 | Link to Comment Irish66
Irish66's picture

That says it all
No Santa Claus this year

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:14 | Link to Comment Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

No Virginia, there is no Santa Claus....time to grow up and get your ass on the corner

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:27 | Link to Comment The Limerick King
The Limerick King's picture

 

 

Virginia's turned into a whore!

What else do Elites have in store?

Their wealth they will max

With a much lower tax

While the middle-class rots to the core

 

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:35 | Link to Comment quacker
quacker's picture

And make sure you sell enough ass to get yourself a Chinese made iphone. With what's left you can add to McDonald's soaring profits.

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:13 | Link to Comment machineh
machineh's picture

More evidence for ECRI's conclusion that the US is ALREADY in recession.

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:23 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Already...or never left?

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:14 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

That's nice... [sigh]

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:14 | Link to Comment eBuddha
eBuddha's picture

the EU will double count it, so it's actually 79.6

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:14 | Link to Comment John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

It's okay.  All that matters is the EUR/USD.  Crush the USD and the US stock markets go up.  Problem solved.  No need for a housing price recovery or job creation.  Just crush the USD.

100% FUBAR.

 

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:14 | Link to Comment J 457
J 457's picture

Why would they need QE3 if they can maintain these levels without it.  Maybe if markets drop significantly, but not at 1240 range. 

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:14 | Link to Comment catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

I was actually starting to feel better... my moods are contrarian.

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:15 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

I love how all the GOP candidates are now releasing their "economic and tax plans".

Like they don't have same puppet masters as current president.

Only tax and economic plan is going to be the massive cut to corporate tax rate and the regular repatriation of overseas profits at 2%. 

Yanks are really coming together as a people to solve these problems, as evidenced by this stellar consumer confidence number. 

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:26 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

 

Imagine what a sales tax would d to confidence.  It would plummet dramatically, as people would not be able to aford their mercury laced Lucky Charms cereal; without their mercury, Americans will not be able to st fr hours at a time in front of mezmorizing TVs and their alzheimers will go away.  Can anyone say, "Zero"?

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:46 | Link to Comment Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

I say support OWS. At least someone is turning off the TV and getting out there to protest.

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:15 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

All we need is confidence!! 

That's what the cheerleaders like to believe. Because if you're broke, up to your eyeballs in debt, and hounded by debt collectors BUT you have confidence!! then everything must be fine. And the people who ran you over the cliff can feel satisfied they did a right good job

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:15 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

October Consumer Confidence, plunged from a downward revised 45.4 to 39.8, the lowest since March 2009.

 

Wait 'til folks get a dose of +15 cents / gallon of gas (coming to a corner near you).  Barry's job performance is going to drop from a propped-up 45.4 to 39.8 by Thanksgiving.

 

 

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:16 | Link to Comment YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Are those FEDass seriously think that they are helpingthe economy? They are either complete idiots, not 100% corrupt.

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:17 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

From CNBC - everything you need to know about media bias in one blurb:

 

U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped in October to its lowest level in two-and-a-half years as consumers fretted about job and income prospects, according to a private sector report released on Tuesday

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:18 | Link to Comment dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

That's okay. The bulls will say it has bottomed... again. Doesn't it bottom every month? Haha...

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:18 | Link to Comment 0cz
0cz's picture

Oh no!  Just in time for the 'Buy a bunch of shit for your kids or you don't love them' season!

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:20 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Hmmm, my confidence is 100.  I'm quite confident that the crap I consume is worthless.

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:22 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Steve LIESman is working harder than all HFT's combined to spin this whole pile of crap into a 8 course gourmet dinner.

What a total sellout fuctard.

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:22 | Link to Comment The Axe
The Axe's picture

Machines rule risk is still on....market wants to turn higher....Ben must ahve the helicopter on the pad....

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:28 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Pullback to 11k at least before another epic dollar fail a la Bernanke coming.  The dollar should test DXY 78 beore the next QE, at which time the DXY will move to 66.  Look for 11k to be tested by mid November.  Bernanke will begin to lay plans for his next QE, which is the refi bill.  It will take a bailout of $1 trillion to be able to keep the banks solvent while Americans refi their underwater mortgages.

This will be one more stake in the dollar.  The Euro is unquestionably on life support, and there are two ways it will fail.  Greece leaves and goes back to the Drachma, in which case the other PIIGS run and Germany and France own the Euro, or Germany goes back to the Mark and the Euro fails.

If you can't long straddle the Euro, your best hedge is owning precious metal.

Buy silver

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:30 | Link to Comment marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

Santa Clause is NOT coming to town bitchez!

a little King Dimond...

Christmas time is here again
Santa needs a helping hand
We cannot find his evil sheet
To draw his laying for the night
So all the waiting christmas trees
Gonna hear their master sing....

There's no presents, not this christmas
There's no presents
Tom and jerry, drinking sherry
They don't give a damn
[ Lyrics from: http://www.lyricsfreak.com/k/king+diamond/no+presents+for+christmas_2007... ]
Christmas time is here again
Santa needs a helping hand
It's getting very, very late
St.peter's crossed the golden gate
An donald duck is still in bed
I wonder who he's gonna help

There's no presents, not this christmas
There's no presents
Tom and jerry, all done sherry
They don't give a damn

There's no presents, not this christmas
There's no presents
Tom and jerry, still drinking sherry
They don't give a damn

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:35 | Link to Comment machineh
machineh's picture

Doug Short, on just how bad this confidence number really is:

On a percentile basis, the latest reading is at the 1st percentile of all the monthly readings since the start of this data series in June 1977 and at the all-time low of non-recessionary months. Only five months in the entire history of this indicator, all during the Financial Crisis recession, have been lower than the latest consumer confidence number.

http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Conference-Board-Consumer-Confidence-Index.php

Of course, we'll only know in retrospect whether this is a 'non-recessionary' month. ECRI says we're in recession already.

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:36 | Link to Comment PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

The Consumer Confidence is the one of the indicators that does not lie until such time that the Masters of the Universe f**k up the measuring of this indicator.

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:38 | Link to Comment Silver FoxNJ
Silver FoxNJ's picture

I agree with buying silver for the medium to long term but I suspect if the banks and specs need cash, they will sell everything including PMs in the short-term. This has happened a couples times in the past, including not long ago when silver went to $26-$27ish. Buy when silver goes to new lows.

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:41 | Link to Comment Dr. Nancy
Dr. Nancy's picture

 

 

All that's happening is predictable, as there are 7 stages that any major economy goes through. Those who know how it works profit and massive wealth is transferred to them. See what one millionaire has to say about the 7 stages countries go through & how you can profit like the ultra-rich during these tough times. See his free video "How To Create Incredible Wealth in Today's Economic Crisis" at:

 

http://theelevationgroup.net/presentation/register.php?a_aid=160667&a_bi...

 

Hope this helps everyone as it has me.

Dr. Nancy

 

 

 

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:44 | Link to Comment Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

All those expecting a bump in this number do not live in the real world.  Simple as that. Things are not better out here - they're worse, stagnant and with little prospect of being any better for a long, long time.

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:58 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i am trying to figure if this is a leading or lagging indicator

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 10:59 | Link to Comment gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

(Reuters) - "Consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped to its lowest level in two-and-a-half years in October as consumers fretted about job and income prospects."

 

Here is that "unexpectedly" again.  Is Reuters newsroom foggy with hopium smoke?

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 11:15 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Far as I'm concerned this is ALL BULLISH as evidenced by insignificant market losses this am. 

 

Markets should have tanked today into BLACK FRIDAY. But patience my biyatchez....it will all get purged...........

 

(The invisible multiplier is the difference between measured unemployment and the real rate of unemployment which is about 100% of the official number -- that is what will in short order destroy any Santa Claus rally -- stay tuned for holiday grimness.) 

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 11:16 | Link to Comment tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

The sucking sound is just starting to become louder and louder. More and more people are on the brink, meanwhile the GES better known as the Global Extraction Syndicate has turned up the speed on the vacuum cleaners to suck as much out while they still can. Last time I checked, 68% of GDP is generated from consumer spending. The puppet masters can continue their show all they want however as the strings keep breaking sooner or later the show must come to an end......

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 11:30 | Link to Comment MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

The Muslim is really doing a good job.  But wait, this is still Bushes fault, ...right?

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 11:45 | Link to Comment karzai_luver
karzai_luver's picture

yes and yes.

 

 

good post for you, may be you are being thrown into reality, of a sort anyway.

 

good job.

 

When you see idiot peeps givng the hero of Iraq a standing O you have to KNOW that it's true.

U.S. peeps must live in total denial and 10second popcorn reality.

 

Is it too late to draft Bush for another run?

hahahaha

 

 

 

 

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 11:32 | Link to Comment Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com

Beat me to it! But look at chart of misery index!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Tue, 10/25/2011 - 11:42 | Link to Comment karzai_luver
karzai_luver's picture

As confidence plunges you are going to get an EPIC ramp in SPENDIng by the U.S. CONsumer.

After all, if it's all going to hell why save that unsed credit for a better day.

 

Peeps will party like 99 if they think the jig (for them) is up.

 

Buy the momo cinsumer crap.

 

It's all good!!!!! bitchezz.

 

 

 

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