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Consumer Confidence Plunges, Biggest Miss Since February 2006

Tyler Durden's picture


Following misses to expectations in every single economic data point for the past week, not to mention today's Empire Index, Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization we just got the latest June University of Michigan Consumer Confidence number which, lo and behold, printed at 74.1 on expectations of 77.5, and a plunge from May's 79.3. In brief, this was the biggest miss to expectations since February of 2006. If this latest economic datapoint abortion does not send the market soaring, nothing will.

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Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:02 | 2529109 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

This confirms that the private sector is doing well as the campaigner in chief told the sheep!  

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:04 | 2529122 SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

You can't fix stupidity with more stupidity.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:08 | 2529134 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

No, you can't.  But, you can certainly try.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:13 | 2529165 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Again, as a subjectivist, I don't necessarily see this as a bad thing. A conumer confidence miss could be either good or bad. Everything is relative.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:16 | 2529181 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

Exactly.  Disappointment has shown itself to be a benevolent force time and time again.

that is kinda fun.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 13:10 | 2529784 old naughty
old naughty's picture

more muppets are awake !!!

bullish on right-ing the ship ?

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 23:03 | 2531299 mkkby
mkkby's picture

Gee, I thought consumers only cared about the price of gas.  I guess they're starting to notice it's election time, and the wanna bee whores are making things look as bad as possible.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:18 | 2529189 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

You make a good point.. I feel like Merril Lynch and I'm bullish on the collapse of the american economy



Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:16 | 2529169 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture


Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:08 | 2529136 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

don't be so sure:





U.S. stock-indexes hold rise after sentiment data


Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:36 | 2529259 FlyoverCountryS...
FlyoverCountrySchmuck's picture



NPR told me JUST YESTERDAY that:

1) Mitt Romney is having a hard time campaigning on the idea that he will fix the economy -- with the economy doing so much better lately, Romney just isn't getting traction on this.

2) Meanwhile, Obama is campaigning on the idea that he has been very successful, and has accomplished a great deal.


Fri, 06/15/2012 - 11:26 | 2529430 Henry Chinaski
Henry Chinaski's picture

Sadly, I know too many people who eat that shit up.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 12:36 | 2529672 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

NPR will carry that water no matter how putrid.  Please take the time to write a note to the ombudsman at your local NPR radio station, identifying the specific time this broadcast was on and as precisely as possible describe their error/bias.  You might get lucky and it will be addressed  I've had the righteous pleasure of correcting NPR through WAMU many times.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 15:21 | 2530404 potlatch
potlatch's picture

The "media" is so fragmented these days, I only view it to catch a "sampling" of the noise and blather and doom and hope.  NPR, Fox, NYT, your local paper, Bloomberg, I do not care what outlet:


This is way out of their control.  You might as well go to the Ocean, and pick up a seashell, and listen to that.  it's all just idle chatter, because no one - no one -- can speak in any of these outlets, in terms of what is actually happening.  There are no narratives -- left or right -- for "global capital market collapse"



Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:07 | 2529131 JoeStocks
JoeStocks's picture

Part of the Feds arsenal. Look up VPIN. They can also use this to move the markets up at the most opportune times.

VPIN has shown it can predict changes in the VIX, which reflects investor expectations about near-term price moves based on trading in options on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, O’Hara said. The VIX doesn’t predict VPIN, making the measure a tool that provides new information to the market, she said.

Algorithms, or strategies that break larger orders into smaller pieces and execute them gradually, could also be tailored to trade differently as the VPIN rises, avoiding risks caused by diminishing liquidity, O’Hara said. Regulators for their part could use the measure to identify when markets are at risk of a liquidity-induced crisis and slow down trading to forestall further problems, Lopez de Prado said.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:56 | 2529316 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

pretty good rant for someone who doesn't post much

if yer avatar is free, later, i would like to get my mouth on her vulvatility index while she front-runs a crisis of liquidity in my package of confidence tools...


Fri, 06/15/2012 - 11:58 | 2529484 Frozen IcQb
Frozen IcQb's picture


That's it. I'm closing the week with that one. LOL


ps. No disrespect to JS intended.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 13:55 | 2529987 misnomer00
misnomer00's picture

that one was just awesome!!!! made my day. haha..

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 15:25 | 2530417 potlatch
potlatch's picture

Funny you would post this.  I am, as we speak, interviewing for an entry-level position.  it's a pretty tight resume, I must admit.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 12:55 | 2529735 Fidel Sarcastro
Fidel Sarcastro's picture

Joe - don't let that cat out of the bag...I'm using VPIN.  Let's keep it close to the vest as long as possible

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:04 | 2529119 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Just more reason to ram rod the shit out of the SPX.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:05 | 2529121 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Explains the market ramp. Good news is bad and bad news is really REALLY good.

Can't wait to see how quadruple witching works out near the close.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:05 | 2529125 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture



We are all Pavlov's dogs, now.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:14 | 2529173 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

God! There are so many ways to go with a reply here. I think I'll leave well enough alone and just applaud. :>)

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:06 | 2529128 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Full disclosure:  I know not how this piece of crap econometric data point is created, but if it were a worthwhile data point, how is it that the UMCC is even above 30?

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:08 | 2529133 xtop23
xtop23's picture

Pack of dogs anticipating scraps being thrown from master's table.

More twist coming ....

Wake me when the bombs start dropping. My crude longs are going to go nuts.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:08 | 2529138 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

How demoralizing.   LOL

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:08 | 2529139 tellsometruth
tellsometruth's picture

"Bring out yer dead. Bring out yer dead."

-Monty Python and the Holy Grail

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:11 | 2529148 asteroids
asteroids's picture

The market is being scripted. The free market is dead. The news, real or imagined, doesn't matter.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:12 | 2529157 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Markets going up but so is TLT, seems diverging....

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:12 | 2529162 blueskies123
blueskies123's picture

Why is all this US bad economic news on top of a possible GREXIT, on top of multiple Euro bank downgrades in several countries sending the markets soaring? Is this just our (US) taxdollars at work led by Brian Sacks and his algo PPT brigade to pump up the markets on bad news?

Or what is also known as TWIST-OFF ?  as in RISK OFF ?


Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:14 | 2529174 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Because they can and the average person, US or EU, doesn't even comprehend what you just said.  They only look at the market and equate it to the broad economy.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:32 | 2529237 Matt
Matt's picture

The worse things are, the better chances are that the Fed and ECB, or even all central banks, will work together on a massive stimulus program. Bad news is good news.

Good news is bad news in the new normal, since the better things are, the less probability of stimulus.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:13 | 2529167 aerial view
aerial view's picture

Big miss for CC, market must fake left go right: look for Dow to breach 12700 on bad news!

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:15 | 2529178 walcott
walcott's picture

flash some secret society M's and Pyramid hand symbols and you'll be alright.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:16 | 2529180 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

That explains why WTI took off.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:20 | 2529195 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

The Washington clown is granting immunity to Mexican illegals in the US because HE CAN NOT WIN ON THE FACTS OR HIS RECORD.  Does he think the people are that fuckin stupid?  More votes from people who contibuted nothing to this country or economy.  What the hell is going on that the American people cant see this for what it is?

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 12:56 | 2529739 Umh
Umh's picture

He's baiting the opposition to say something that will hurt them with the Hispanic voters.


We really do need some sort of coherent immigration policy, but both parties have been using and abusing the issue for decades as a campaign sound bite.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:20 | 2529196 markettime
markettime's picture

Unemplyment FAIL, Manufactoring FAIL, Consumer Confidence FAIL, and yet the markets rise......the market has gone full retard! 

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:34 | 2529248 Matt
Matt's picture

4 out of 4 means the chances of a good announcement next Wednesday is much better. If only oil would drop under $80 and gasoline stay closer to $2, then the next big program from the Fed would be gauranteed.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:41 | 2529271 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

It is interesting how WTI has taken a beating over the past few weeks leading up to that meeting...

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:31 | 2529233 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Technically speaking we are now at an important point for the SPY at the top of a downtrend channel going back to mid april.  Good place to short from if the immediate outlook wasn't so cloudy and we actually had free markets.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:33 | 2529246 Hohum
Hohum's picture


I don't know if it's full retard.  We'd first have to figure out why markets rise and fall.  I share the view of many that stock indices are most closely correlated with central bank intervention.

What other reasons are there?  There really isn't reason to think that corporate profits (of those in the indices) will plummet any time soon.

Besides, these numbers have wide margins of error and many are later revised, up or down, whatever.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:48 | 2529289 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

All the news wsa BAD today! Industrial production, capacity uitlization, Empire, you name it.


Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:48 | 2529290 JackT
JackT's picture

You mean it's Opposite Day again?! 

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 10:53 | 2529305 I should be working
I should be working's picture

Consumer confidence surveys are lagging indicators of the housing/stock markets.  Nothing to see here, the stock market went down and the housing market still sucks.  Nothing I didn't already know.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 11:06 | 2529356 q99x2
q99x2's picture

You have to lie in the first place to get the miss that bad.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 11:47 | 2529499 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

all those off the 99 weeks UE check..are responsible for this lack of confidence..death to the 99ers.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 11:50 | 2529512 Mark123
Mark123's picture

Consumer confidence is down eh?  Well, all we need to do is cram more sub-prime debt into the market and that'll fix it just fine.


Got no job?  Foreclosed on in the the last couple of years?  Poor credit rating?  No problem, the taxpayer is more than happy to underwrite a new FHA loan so you can buy that new house you so deserve, a new car loan for a shiny new GM you so deserve, or some new credit cards so you can go shopping and buy those new electronics, clothes you so deserve. 


We won't have to recognize the loss on this new batch of sub-prime lending for at least another year, so no worries.  And maybe the economy will magically go into high gear and euphoria....and all this new sub-prime lending will be paid back in a never-ending virtuous cycle.  Yipee!!

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 12:03 | 2529566 TrainWreck1
TrainWreck1's picture

[AP]the latest June University of Michigan Consumer Confidence number dipped slightly to 74.1, but in heartening news, it was also noted that 74.1 is a positive number, indicating we are turning the corner on the recovery from the recession.[/AP]

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