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Consumer Confidence Soars On Inflation Expectations... Dropping

Tyler Durden's picture




 

There was a time when it took at least some digging to cut through the manipulated headline data. Not so much any more. The latest UMichicagn consumer confidence data point is out, and it being an election year and all, and there needing to be some immediate validation of the massive stock surge in the aftermath of our own Gideon Gono going full retard, posted the biggest positive surprise to expectations in well... ever, printing at 79.2, on expectations of 74.0, up from 74.3. This was the highest print since May, which occurted not on the conditions component, but the expectations, which soared from 65.1 to 73.4. And here is the punchline: why did consumers get more confident? Because in the period from the last month they priced in more... drumroll... deflation! 1 and 5 year inflation expectations declined from 3.6% and 3.0%, to 3.5% and 2.8%. And that's how we know they don't even bother to mask the lies any more.

Monthly surprise to expectations via John Lohman: nuf said.

 

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Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:10 | 2794552 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

"If you print it, they will consume" - Ben Bernanke's head

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 11:11 | 2794958 larz
larz's picture

They only polled Washington DC

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:11 | 2794558 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

feelings-like "Consumer Sentiment" are always more important than stupid trivial stuff like "Industrial Production Drops" here in touchy-feely USofA

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:12 | 2794564 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Reality is for fags.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:17 | 2794589 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Not that there's anything wrong with that.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:40 | 2794735 NewWorldOrange
NewWorldOrange's picture

The only reality left is that criminals and traitors have taken control of America and are hellbent on destroying it, wittingly or not, and we MUST STOP THEM SOON.

On Martch 15, 2013, march on your city councils, state capitals, DC. Whatever you can manage. At 8am your time, just grab your family and walk into the streets. Refuse to disband or go home until the city councils oblige, the local police oblige, the state capitals oblige, the national guardsmen and armed forces oblige and follow their oaths, and TPTB in DC, including every Congressman, top administration officials, the DOJ heirarchy, have all been arrested and are awaiting trial.

Let the revolution begin. Demands: TPTB are tried for treason against their Oaths to support and defend the Constitution, for cronyism, rampant bribery and corruption, lies, malfeasance, and plenty of other charges that not only makes them unfit to serve, but TRAITORS and CRIMINALS and THUGS.

America marches on the Ides of March. 8am local time -- get in the streets. It's our last, best hope. Make this go viral. American Spring.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:51 | 2794823 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

"Occupy" kinda  took the wind out of those sails. Worked pretty well. 

But who knows?

 

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 17:12 | 2796929 NewWorldOrange
NewWorldOrange's picture

OWS had no coherent message, and was too sheepish. This can be different. Our message is LOUD AND CLEAR: TPTB are going down one way or another and we aren't leaving the streets until it's done. Fed Gov, Fed Reserve, DOC, DHS, etc etc. Good riddance, and may God have mercy on your souls (and may He sort you out fairly.) You declared war on us. You've molested our kids and treated them like convicts in the airports, train stations, and even schools. You've lied us into wars that killed at least hundreds of thousands for your own power and influence and out of your own bigotry. You have squandered every cent our kids, their kids, and their kids...will ever earn. You worse than a bunch of murderous child molesting thieves. Corzine is a saint compared to most of you Fed Gov/Fed Reserve scum.

TPTB -- there will be no place they can run or hide. Once the Republic is restored by the state legislatures, national guard, local police and sheriffs, armed citizenry, and local governments, and a new, much smaller, much more restricted federal government is created, something like the Articles of Confederation, and whose primary purpose is to force states to protect individual liberties (as it was intended), we will hunt the dogs down the the corners of the Earth, try them, and then Mussolini their asses.

All it takes: America marches on the Ides of March. If just that goes viral, and at 8am (local time) on 3-15-2013, everyone walks out into the street. It'll start on the east coast and move west. People to the west will be emboldened by what those in the east get started.

Spread the word. Blog it. Speak it. Create a blog. Youtube. Twitter. Facebook. Egypt did it and so did others. Let's MAKE THIS REVOLUTION HAPPEN. It's up to each one of you.

America marches on the Ides of March.

Maybe I'll get arrested for subversion or something and they'll give me a great opportunity to draw lots of attention to this "meme." I can only hope so. I'm ready and willing. What about you? Too busy seaching the TV guide Ikea boy? The pen is mightier than the sword. That was said when the only pens were quill pens, and printing press didn't exist. Now, you have a global Internet at your fingertips. So WTF? Man or mouse bitch?

That's what I thought. Move on to the next comment, find one you can play sophistry/word games with (it's all 80% of you ever do) in the hope of getting your pitifully low self-esteem lifted by a few green arrows from some other loser that'll still be whining in mom's basement when even SHEEPLE are in the street...

(you didn't REALLY think most of the crowd here is any different, and has the balls to so much as post "subversive" stuff all over the Internet asking people to commit to an American Spring, did you? hahahaha Now give me that red arrow and move onto the next comment where if you're lucky, you'll find some company in misery.)

Then again, you COULD just post, "I'm not a special snowflake, I'm not The One, and neither is anyone else, there is no real Tyler Durden because that's a movie, and so I commit to doing all I can to make "America marches on the Ides of March" go viral and happen, because if the Egyptians and plenty of others can break the stranglehold of the scum that runs America, so can Americans.

It has to start somewhere, somehow. Okay, here it is. Just do it. Spread the word. Let's make it so. Participate in something for probably the first time in your life. See it thru. For maybe the first time, you actually DO have the right answer (that no one around you wants to hear, but most know deep down is true and so they're not beyond hope.) So ACT ON IT. The pen is very mighty in the technological age. Be a sheep or be a soldier. It's up to you.

Then again, why go to all that trouble when you can just watch the collapse/revolution, sitting on the sideline, until some thug carves you up and deep fries your own arms in your own ample body fat you fucking loser. You know who you are. You're the guy who would never even consider engaging in a joint effort unless it involved sharing an actual joint. Even then, you'd bogart it.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:11 | 2794559 ThunderingTurd
ThunderingTurd's picture

Cue The Doors song, "This is the End"

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:22 | 2794611 Awakened Sheeple
Awakened Sheeple's picture

+

Great choice. It's bittersweet... Sweet that buying gold was a wise decision.. Bitter in that my kids are fucked.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:30 | 2794650 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

What promted this Fed action?  Some really, really bad *excrement* about to hit the fan. World economy falling of a cliff?  Morgan Stanley going down?  Stay tuned......

The panic button was hit for a reason.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:41 | 2794736 pods
pods's picture

I agree, and with the focus on MBSs, it could signal that another bout of liquidity lockups due to some big bank flatlining again.

pods

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:13 | 2794565 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"Wealth effect" -  FAIL.  The central bankers keep saying that "we are not in a panic", then why embark on massive, unsterilized purchases?  They stink of fear.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:27 | 2794631 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Bernankes performance yesterday was terrible. He looked awful and sounded worse.

40 billion per month. Let that number sink in...

 

 

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:33 | 2794664 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

He sounded scared.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:13 | 2794569 walküre
walküre's picture

It's pretty quiet around here today. Must be that everyone is standing in line at their local coin dealer. What else is there to do? ZH has given all the explanations and all the education there is to give.

Care to know that the Baltic Dry is already sobered up from the "Bernanke Bounce" and continues its downward trend....

$40 billion a month in MBS purchases will not create one single job. Well, maybe it will allow the banksters to afford themselves even more staff to manicure the lawns at their mansions. But out there in the real world, the Fed has now singlehandedly destroyed what was left of the American economy. Just wait.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:20 | 2794576 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

the US is a society built on perception and superficiality- not of substance. a Potemkin Society

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 11:02 | 2794906 sleepingbeauty
sleepingbeauty's picture

+1 on getting me to do a google search to see what a Potemkin Society was. I was thinking it had something to do with Mandy Patinkin (Inigo Montoyo in Princess Bride)

 

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:20 | 2794605 CunnyFunt
CunnyFunt's picture

Yes, it's a good day to dump paper and buy tangibles.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:37 | 2794695 indygo55
indygo55's picture

Yesterday was better.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:29 | 2794636 fuu
fuu's picture

It does seem rather calm.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:34 | 2794675 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

The calm before the storm. Don't be surprised if news hits this weekend.

Black Monday anyone?

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:13 | 2794570 Jason T
Jason T's picture

wow, big surprise coming.. my research suggests we'll see declining productivity and that will in turn lead to higher inflation.. demand collapses in the US and soars in China.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:16 | 2794577 Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

Wait till $6 a gallon gasoline smacks them in the head. 

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:22 | 2794614 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

don't forget-the MSM has to report verbatim whatever the State Dept/CIA tells them to report.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:41 | 2794738 SheHunter
SheHunter's picture

Yup. Scary. But sometimes understandable. Think of times when you're discouraged, stressed or whatever. Its easy to turn to the mindless stuff just to get your mind off what is bugging you. We're all human and all in this together.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 11:03 | 2794914 pods
pods's picture

Sorry but that rapper one is too funny.  YOLO.

I think I hear a Darwin Award nomination.

pods

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:19 | 2794595 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

I see the folks from Whoville have weighed in again. What worthless data.  

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:21 | 2794608 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Smell that? $5-6 gas. Yummy.

Feels good bro on my $7.25 an hour job.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:26 | 2794624 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

in 80s when i was a working teen min wage was $5.25 and gas was $1.25 a gallon and a case of beer was $6. I had some $ left in my pocket to buy some other stuff. $7.25 doesn't go too far today.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:21 | 2794609 JohnKozac
JohnKozac's picture

I'm happy. Maybe the CPI will hit 2% so Grampa can get a 2% COLA hike and buy some stuff he likes to eat instead of canned sardines from the dollar store all week.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:22 | 2794613 Watauga
Watauga's picture

But the MSM can use it to help reelect Obama, which is all that matters anyway.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:23 | 2794618 pawformation
pawformation's picture

While you all proclaim the sky is falling, the smart crowd is making money.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:38 | 2794706 carambar
carambar's picture

Exactly! they have been wrong since they became bearish at the bottom of the market in 2009.

since then they are blaming everyone else for their blindeness. Being uber bearish is as stupid aas being a permabull.

know to think by yourself and have more information sources than bearish web site like ZH.

 

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:48 | 2794803 walküre
walküre's picture

How so? Buying gold in 2009 was the only sensible thing to do.

Are you trying to tell us that you actually bought/sold ... traded ... equities and made money? You're either the luckiest kid on the block or you're an insider.

Some lost because their bearish stance put them into a shorting coma. "Don't fight the Fed" was coined here on ZH if I'm not mistaken.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 11:18 | 2795009 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

You're mistaken.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:47 | 2794785 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

Pennies in front of a steam roller comes to mind.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 11:06 | 2794927 pods
pods's picture

And not the pre-1983 copper ones either!

pods

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:23 | 2794619 SheHunter
SheHunter's picture

What 'consumers' are answering this question? Certainly not single, self-employed people like myself, one of the under-employed masses. Not the elderly who are watching the price of groceries and gas skyrocket. Not those just out of college who moved back in with the parents becasue they are unable to find work in their new degree field. Not middle income families underwater on their mortgage knowing the heating bill this winter is going to be a nightmare. Not the lower income folk who are standing in lines outside the one Walmart store that has a 'now hiring' sign. So who are these consumers? And what medication have they been prescribed?

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:33 | 2794668 Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

The consumers are 80 year old senile grannies who have land line phones and the time to answer polls.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:43 | 2794693 GlomarHabu
GlomarHabu's picture

<strong>DUMB EXPLAINED and why Americans are so fooled

 Essays and  books have been written in recent years concerning what many educators and intellectuals believe has been a deliberate “dumbing down of America,” A study of average intelligence of Americans by state, we didn’t believe the problem was as severe as it is.

 

From IQ data taken from a book by university professors Richard Lynn and Tatu Vanhanen called “IQ and the Wealth of Nations” and a website that showed IQ data calculated from state SAT and ACT scores, there is an indication that 98 indeed, is the average level of intellect in the US.

 

Just to give you some concept of what this “average” IQ of 98 means in national thought patterns we have to explain that the vast majority of people In the United States test at this level.  This gives them the capability of being general laborers for the rest of the world, but not much better. It also helps explain how people can be so beguiled by false television media reports and advertising claims. 

People testing lower than an 80 IQ are regarded as “low average,” and those under 70 are considered retarded. People testing 110 to 130 are considered superior in intelligence. Above that is the genius category.

 

According to international IQ charts, the United States rates 18 behind other nations in average intellectual levels. At the top is Hong Kong at 107; South Korea, 106; Japan, 105; Taiwan and Singapore, 104; Austria, Germany, Italy and The Netherlands, 102; Sweden and Switzerland at 101; Belgium, China, New Zealand and the United Kingdom at 100; Hungary, Poland and Spain at 99.

 

According to the Mensa IQ group, these numbers are not bad, although they could be much better, especially in the United States where educational opportunities were once touted as among the best, and our universities excelled for years. Education in America took a beating, however, during the Bush years after Mr. Bush introduced his infamous “no child left behind” policy. It forced teachers to prepare students to pass federal tests rather than teach them anything. Thus the general IQ range of Americans may have slipped a few notches since 2004. It may be a few years before the full extent of the damage will be learned.

 

People in the IQ range of 90 to 110 are considered good learners and hands-on people well adapted for public service jobs. They make good secretaries, bank tellers, police officers, machinists and sales clerks. That just about describes the American people today. Where are the artists, the writers, the great mathematicians, inventors? We are not producing them anymore.

 

Remember that these numbers are “average,” which means that some are much lower, while others are higher. People at 70 to 80 IQ are thought of as slow, simple-minded individuals that need supervision just to function. Those at 120 and above are the creative ones, the leaders.

 

The bottom line to all of this is that Americans are falling behind. Either we are producing dumber people, or something has gone very wrong with our education system. The masses are turning out to be bungling idiots, content on their menial 9-5 job, their nightly ration of beer and Saturday afternoon football. They will raise the flag and go to war when the leaders tell them to, and they won’t question the order.

The big business interests have got people right where they want them. They have turned Americans into a nation of slaves, content to work for minimum wages with no benefits so the wealthy landowners get even richer.

Any real explaination  needed on why we are largely a nation of sheeple?<strong>

 

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:58 | 2794882 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

Education has little if any impact on IQ.

If you wonder why the number is low, just remember, Amerika is a *melting pot*.  Ya gotta take the bad with the good.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:44 | 2794757 JR
JR's picture

Consumers “priced in more... drumroll... deflation!”

You’ve got to be kidding. How many Americans can even define “deflation”?

I mentioned inflation recently to a waitress when I looked at my bill and she screwed up her nose in wonderment, and asked, “Inflation? What’s that?”

And now she’s happier because she’s priced in more deflation? Uh-huh.

According to a recent poll conducted by Winthrop University in election season, “29.3% of adult residents of South Carolina couldn’t name the current Vice President of the United States. In fact, 3% of those polled claimed Dick Cheney was still roaming the halls of the White House.”

And now they’ve priced in deflation? On what?

http://shortformblog.com/post/17297339388/south-carolina-poll-biden-name-recognition

 

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:51 | 2794830 walküre
walküre's picture

The waitress should be fine. Her income (tips) is a percentage relative to the inflated meal you're consuming /sarc

She will get what inflation is when her customers tip $2 on a $50 meal in 2013 that cost only $20 in 2009. By then she'll be happy to have any customers rich enough to afford eating out.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 11:03 | 2794907 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

Excellent point JR.  Methinks the survey has be outed this time; the word rigged comes to mind. Most probably think the word deflation refers to tire pressure.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 11:40 | 2795159 JR
JR's picture

Reuter’s participation in the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan survey in an election year makes its value equal to confetti.

There’s little doubt that Reuters would favor reelection of Obama because of its contacts and bias around the world shown in its reporting not only of the Middle East but of European economics.

Add to this poisoned mixture Reuter’s merger with The Thomson Corporation in 2008 and the survey’s conclusions actually become dangerous. This powerfuly influential multinational media voice operates in 100 countries, and has 60,000 employees.

There’s little difference between so-called private reports and government reports when they’re plugged into the same line, hooked up to the Federal Reserve's talking points.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:52 | 2794832 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

The consumer confidence numbers are a joke. Most of the number signal further recession (IP, CU, retail sales ex auto & gas) yet there is hopium about lower inflation? And the jobs report sucked?

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/09/14/manufacturing-slumber-industrial-production-capacity-utilization-fall-in-august-retail-sales-ex-auto-gas-fall-too/

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 10:59 | 2794887 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

Consumers, as a group, are too ignorant to be used as a survey.  They sadly do not have enough information or interest to see the big picture.

This has to be one of the most insane "indicators" ever.

It's like asking a herd of cattle if they expect  to be grazing peacefully or stampeding on Thursday, September 27.

Fri, 09/14/2012 - 11:21 | 2795023 Unbezahlbar
Unbezahlbar's picture
I disagree with Gross on houses. From Mish:
  • This month the number of people employed fell by 119,000.
  • In the last two months, the number of people employed fell by 314,000!
  •  In the last year, the civilian population rose by 3,695,000. Yet the labor force only rose by 971,000.
  • This month the Civilian Labor Force fell by 368,000.
  • Last month, those "not" in the labor force increased by 348,000 to 88,340,000, another record high. 
  • This month we set another record high with a whopping 581,000 dropping out of the labor force. If you are not in the labor force, you are not counted as unemployed. 
  • In the last year, those "not" in the labor force rose by 2,723,000 
  •  

    Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/09/panic.html#Jz3lM6Zws6RutvbE.99 House prices and sales are going nowhere but for more "correction" toward greater affordability in line with incomes.
    Fri, 09/14/2012 - 13:29 | 2795756 koncaswatch
    koncaswatch's picture

    Incredulity doesn't quite describe my response to this post. I want to suspect the poll; but, UM work has been reliable in the past (at least as far as I've used their data). This makes me ask more questions; maybe those polled where thinking asset deflation (homes, used cars, adult toys, etc.), is that it?

    Do they have price inflation and asset deflation mixed up?!!

    QEInfinite is going to tear these seemingly unaware (ignorant?) folks apart. 

    Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!