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Coordinated Rumor Ramps Risk

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Epic. Stocks clambered back up to the 1315 (S&P 500 e-mini Sept 2012 contract) level which has been a critical VWAP level for a few days now amid what was a mildly slow day (though IG credit outperformed from its recent deterioration). Then the rumors started.  Risk assets jolted in a very systemic manner (all highly correlated) as ES popped above last Friday's highs (unable to get close to Monday's open we do note), then as the realization that a pre-emptive warning of 'some' action in the case of 'some' event was simply the status quo anyway and we gave the entire 14 pt ramp back. Then we bounced once again as BoE made some noise on further stimulus if things go pear-shaped and we bounced again (though this time only about 8pts and on very small average trade size we note) as we headed into the close right around last Friday's highs. With OPEX tomorrow, this vol could not be more stop-inducing and painful for many as the Dow has now been -150, +150, -80, and +160 pts this week and decent volume today although average trade size remains limited (on the lack of conviction we pre-suppose). Gold and less so Silver bounced off their earlier spike-down moves and WTI rallied like a champ today (resyncing with Silver just in the green for the week). Gold is up 2% on the week (but was far less impressed with the chatter today than stocks were) as in the meantime the USD dropped and ended -0.75% on the week (and AUD is now 1% stronger). Treasuries whipsawed around but only retraced around a third of their rally from yesterday's morning session as 7Y and 10Y underperformed (+5bps or so). Pre-OPEX VIX is always a mess but we dropped over 2.5 vols into the close to end under 22% (but above Friday's close). Risk assets in general moved together and stayed in sync today during the final hour's carnival with stocks perhaps a little rich by the close.

Quite a week in ES but today's final ramp - dominated by low average trade size (the yellow bars - h/t @eminiwatch) - makes us less certain of any follow through...

Between VWAP levels, Friday's close, and low and high volume nodes (at left in the distribution), this week's action has been very mechanical (with a retest of the Monday 1337.5 levels not out of the quyestion on an auction higher though we suspect a push back down to around 1313 is more likely in the very short-term. (though judging from the market reaction to EUR100bn last weekend, this weekend could be even uglier one way or the other)...

but it seems all the covering is occurring here into the weekend as cheap IG protection was sold back to sync with HY and stocks...

Financials were the most volatile post-rumor as is clear from this chart (though they ended up holding onto gains into the close)...

Oil outperformed dramatically - moving back into the green for the week - while Gold was considerably more stable than Silver (as both bounced off their spike lows from earlier in the day)...

Treasuries have been just as wild a ride as stocks this week. Tuesday 30Y yields retraced 50% of the Monday open to close rally and Today retraced around 38.2% of the Wednesday open to close rally. It would appear the risk-on bounces are losing their strength...

The drop in VXX and exuberance in HYG was enough to juice SPY all day long (as per the upper left chart) but risk-assets broadly were in sync with stocks all day - even as we popped-dropped-and-popped (upper and middle right). Equity correlation with risk assets rose in the afternoon (lower right) and VIX fell back to its 'fair' level based on the moves in credit and equity markets by the close...

All in all feels like some covering/squaring and some squeezing/stopping on the rumors into a tough OPEX and even tougher weekend...

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

Bonus Chart: Today was the second best day for Facebook since its IPO (+3.74% vs +5% on 5/31) on the 2nd lowest volume day it has had. If there was any question as to what the new QE-momo stock is - we have found it as FB rallied well over 2% on heavy algo-driven volume as soon as the rumors hit...pathetic!!

 

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Thu, 06/14/2012 - 16:28 | 2527128 MiguelitoRaton
MiguelitoRaton's picture

Pretty girl, economic insight, humor...no better way to spend 90 seconds. http://youtu.be/nRzhh9l59NM

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 16:33 | 2527141 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

epic failure

seems like NL has already jettisoned the euro

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 16:36 | 2527155 Transitory Disi...
Transitory Disinflation's picture

Dump the South and create the NEURO.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 17:03 | 2527213 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

 

 

 

EuroZone Version of Wimpy J. Wellington:     We will gladly pay you next Tuesday (or actually, never) for some slouvaki, ouzo and the right to retire at age 48 with a denominated, 120% of last annual salary pension & lifetime 'everything' benefits today. Paul Krugman has made interchange arrangements with the BIS, and The Money Masters have pledged financing in exchange for secured lien status in your infrastructure and the right to own your citizenry.

 

Germany & Northern Europe Taxpayers/Pensioners/Yet-to-be-born:     Hell to the no. No more free slouvaki or ouzo on our tabs. And no more pension/government bloat/public sector graft at our expense. And that goes for Spanish tapas, Portuguese bacalhau, Italian sopressata or French Château Barreyres, equally, bitchez.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 16:40 | 2527167 ronaldawg
ronaldawg's picture

MiguelitoRaton said:

"Pretty girl, economic insight, humor...no better way to spend 90 seconds."

I'd hit that! NOT! - I don't think her understanding of debt is all that great either.....   We'll have a war with China before long and seize all their assets in the U.S.  Have fun with all that worthless paper you have China.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 17:30 | 2527305 MiguelitoRaton
MiguelitoRaton's picture

1. China could very well be pledging their "good as cash" bonds as sole collateral/recourse to buy assets like gold mines...bank forecloses on the bonds...worthless paper, kills the bank, China keeps the gold mine. Probably using western banks, check-and-mate.

2. China is building up their military and leapfrogging some of our tech (straight to drones and ship killers) for next-gen capabilities.

3. The video is right on about debt = slavery. we aren't physically sending our people to China like the slave traders, but the debt will be paid or it will come back to screw us on a default, one way or the other our future will be bleaker because of it!

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 17:41 | 2527329 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Oh look, the British elite, with an economy reeling and a stack of national debt piled high to the moon, are concerned enough about the banks that they're preparing to leverage even more of their citizenry's future on dishing out more free dolla' dolla' sterling pounds, yo, to the banks (shocker; it's the London/New York plan - starve the people and businesses that make things of value, and subsidize banking/financial firms that engineer fiat black holes):

 

British Plan Offers More Funds to Banks
Thu, 06/14/2012 - 19:58 | 2527639 AUD
AUD's picture

And I fully expect to see the dynamic European parliament duo, Farage & Hannan, excoriating the Bank of England for bailing out UK banks & that the UNITED Kingdom is a failure, since you can't solve a debt crisis with more debt now can you?

Yes, 100% certain we'll soon hear from Farage & Hannan on this subject.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 17:36 | 2527318 Marginal Call
Marginal Call's picture

Bitch was pretty dumb.  This ain't about debt or taxes, but positioning for a post crash world.   Nobody is getting paid. 

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 16:42 | 2527175 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

pretty girl-90 seconds? that sounds about right

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 16:46 | 2527191 walküre
walküre's picture

I'd fight 'til my last breath before the Chinese slave traders would take girls like her back to their girl-less excuse for a country.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 00:07 | 2528293 jezzarayman
jezzarayman's picture

wish Goldman would come out with a weekend trade recommendation already.....................cough....cough

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 16:31 | 2527135 bdc63
bdc63's picture

The rumor that I'm hearing is that the Euro has already collapsed ... just not announced to the sheeple yet. 

Certainly might explain all of the sudden "excitement" among the Central Banks this afternoon ...

read this (posted a few hours ago):  www.stevequayle.com

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 16:35 | 2527149 Muppet Pimp
Muppet Pimp's picture

LOL!  Beware phenylketonurics (sp?) this link could induce seizure....

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 16:40 | 2527165 CommunityStandard
CommunityStandard's picture

Seriously.  Does he want anyone to actually read it?

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 16:48 | 2527194 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Gee, sounds like it could be pretty serious..

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 16:31 | 2527139 ekm
ekm's picture

Stupid idiots. They must all be on cocaine.

 

Primary Dealers never had a liquidity problem, they are not craving for liquidity.

WHAT THEY ARE CRAVING ABOUT IS SUCKERS.

 

No more SUCKA. They are retiring and need medical care. No more stock market gambling.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 16:42 | 2527170 CommunityStandard
CommunityStandard's picture

Lack of suckers = liquidity problem.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 16:53 | 2527203 ekm
ekm's picture

Oh really?

They have already bought up most of S&P.

Can you tell me what's left to buy?

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 19:27 | 2527562 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Welcome back ekm . Noticed the loonie has been bouncing off of support just below 1.02.

  I'm looking forward to a grand weekend!

 

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 22:44 | 2528118 ekm
ekm's picture

Yencross

I never left.

My forecast is WTI at $50 and CAD at 65c within the year.

No QE until S&P 1100 if not lower.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 16:32 | 2527142 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

This just in, Bernacke and plunge Protection Team to guarantee 10% stock market gains until at least 2014.  PPT stands ready to step in whenever S&P 500 falls more than 1% or whenever individual investors by put protection.  Action will take the form of outlandish market rumors disseminated to CNBC's Bob Pizzani and reported as fact.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 16:35 | 2527150 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Wow, things seem so much better from this morning don't they? That +160 on the DOW is TOTALLY justified. I can't believe how much the outlook improved today. INCREDIBLE.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 18:36 | 2527450 you enjoy myself
you enjoy myself's picture

this is starting to look like a death wobble again.  increasing, uncontrollable amplitude in both directions until the thing just breaks.  but Ben said its a good idea for retirees to gamble on equities, and he knows what he's doing.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 16:35 | 2527151 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

hahaha... Screw you Blythe. I'm ordering and taking ALL IN PHYSICAL! HAHAHAHA!!!

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 16:37 | 2527158 HD
HD's picture

Central bankers, TBTF banks and politicians caused the 2008 crisis. Yet the market trusts the very same to fix everything.  I just wanted a return to accurate price discovery - now I have to agree with many here that only a collapse is going to right this ship.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 16:37 | 2527159 Blackfox
Blackfox's picture

The Bank of England will launch two new stimulus packages in response to the worsening economic outlook, the BBC understands.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18448636

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 16:42 | 2527171 HarryM
HarryM's picture

SO RUMOR NOW REALITY

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 16:49 | 2527195 PalladiumJockey
PalladiumJockey's picture

And then England said "about that time eh old chap?"

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kCpjgl2baLs

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 16:57 | 2527220 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

And so it begins....

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 17:15 | 2527259 walküre
walküre's picture

Together with the government, it will provide billions of pounds of cheap credit to banks to lend to companies.

It will also offer banks access to short-term money to deal with "exceptional market stresses".

 

Translation. The BOE is printing more of the same and devaluating currency. Bullish for gold and silver, nothing else.

Neither production nor consumption will catch a lift from this bullshit. GDP still negative.

Hey, but at least they're trying.

E for Effort and soon F for Fail again.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 17:01 | 2527232 walküre
walküre's picture

wow, not only one but TWO stimulus packages

the DOUBLE whammy

read between the lines though .. they're offering lower interest rates

why? is it hard to get cheap loans. not really. is anyone in need of a loan? not really.

so why? because the banks are bleeding red ink when nobody is taking loans.

a loan is still a loan. you are obligated to pay it back eventually.

economy is in the toilet and new or cheaper loans won't help, only debt SLASHING will help

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 18:29 | 2527436 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

 

"TWO stimulus packages the DOUBLE whammy"

Double insertion, twice the screwing = gang rape

 

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 18:54 | 2527487 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Double-plus Good!

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 19:43 | 2527605 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

maybe a swing to hang from the ceiling? 

it could be raised and lowered

the swing;  not the ceiling

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 16:41 | 2527169 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

GDamned NG ripped higher today. UNG was up 15%

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 16:43 | 2527179 CommunityStandard
CommunityStandard's picture

NG is one of the few things I'm comfortable being long in.... aside from fiz of course.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 16:42 | 2527172 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

This is hardly a market.  Everything is manipulated to suit the central banks - stocks, bonds, commodities.  Where is a market in any of these?  Silver should have skyrocketed today but ended with a loss.

Something is rotten in Denmark - probably, everything.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 16:51 | 2527198 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Silver and Gold are crowded trades.  All the bugs are already in there.  Didn't you see the article from GoldCore on Tony Robbins being bullish on gold. That doesn't seem like a bubble to you?

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 17:11 | 2527251 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

US debt and unfunded liabilities increasing by $22.5 billion a day is the real bubble to me.  That is enough to buy 70% of the silver bullion in the world.

No wonder the Fed has always been an enemy of real money, i.e., gold and silver.  Volcker was honest enough to admit it.  But Bennie is lot more comfortable with evading the truth.

What percent of US dollars circulating in the world are counterfeit?  And the dollar will collapse sooner or later.  Why are Europeans not buying lot more gold and silver?  They have been dissuaded by constant attacks on these metals and you saw such an example today morning.

No, silver and gold are nowhere near a bubble with all gold and silver bullion in the world worth less than $5 trillion.  US debts and unfunded liabilities will increase by $8.21 trillion this year alone.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 17:23 | 2527283 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

People will always need a house to live in, prices can't go down....

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 19:56 | 2527631 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

i get the sarcasm. 

salomon brothers yield book from the 80's.  the very first sentence  'the value of a dollar today is always more than the value of a dollar tomorrow'.  pretty scary if the bible is proved wrong.

 

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 20:01 | 2527646 Overfed
Overfed's picture

Famous last words....

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 18:37 | 2527449 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

"What percent of US dollars circulating in the world are counterfeit?"

Okay, we have entered some kind of event horion. Is it counterfeit or counterfiat? Is counterfeit a simulacrum which hides the truth of the fiat? BOTH ARE A FUCKING LIE. Neither one represents a truth. In fact, the so called counterfeit is more honest than the fiat. The real question is who believes the lie (or goes along with it for the sake of Machiavellian mechinations) for how long? 

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 19:53 | 2527626 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

infact, in a lot of ways, they are really saying it's ok to print dollars for yourself, because all they want is the most amount of dollars possible in circulation.

but maybe i should preface that like the stupid adverts shown in the US 'this is a simulation by experts - do not try this yourself'.  or something like that.  i rarely watch tv.

or - in a similar vein - i once read a clever analysis of 'who killed jfk'.  and the end result was - didn't really matter who actually pulled the triggr,  j edgar hoover had made clear that if somebody did it, he wouldn't do anything about it.  not sure if people can follow my vodka drift but - it's really the same thing. 

bennie says - don't care how many i print, as long as there are lots of them flying around.

 

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 17:47 | 2527349 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Some trader found spoor of the Abominable Bernanke on

the floor.

No other reason for the ramp I can think of.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 02:28 | 2528478 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

It is amazing to see the market reactions though, it is like the market itself has learned how to do what the TBTF have been doing all along - frontrunning the central banks.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 20:08 | 2527670 Overfed
Overfed's picture

I was over at the local Barbarous Relics Emporium today, and guess what? There wasn't a single ounce of physical silver or gold in the place. no junk silver, no rounds, no eagles, no gold whatsoever. Only coins with numismatic value beyond their melt (for now).

I did talk the owner out of a Morgan for melt as it had a bezel on it to make it a pendant.

Physical PMs, get 'em when and wherever you can.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 16:44 | 2527176 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

So volatility is a sign that things are improving, right? 

Mustard seeds and green shoots and all that...

Definietly going to need to buy four more martini glasses and re-stock the humidor.

Thank God it's warm out and the hummingbirds are flitting about.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 16:43 | 2527180 long-shorty
long-shorty's picture

On CNBC, Bill Griffith keeps talking about what an eventful and important day today was. How absurd. It makes me want to puke on my shoes.

We're not even short, just way reduced exposure on both sides. But really, central banks say they'll do something if bad stuff happens, and the BoE says it will give out liquidity in exchange for crappy collateral, and either one of these things are news???

I hope there is more "news" in the U.S. tomorrow on options expiration day to ramp the market, so we can further reduce our exposure.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 16:44 | 2527181 crawl
crawl's picture

Who needs actual central bank intervention when rumorswork so well?

Manipulated market takes the elevator ride up, and causes fear taking the escalator down.

QE at these levels benefits the banks and no one else.

Crazy Times we live in.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 16:44 | 2527183 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 If the BoJ was going to act? Now would be the perfect time! Cheap usd, and a really stupid equities market!

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 16:44 | 2527184 Catullus
Catullus's picture

Nat gas. Holy fuck. We had to pull all pricing from the morning. Epic.

Something about Algonquin.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 16:50 | 2527197 HaroldWang
HaroldWang's picture

Amazing ramp! Wow! Should carry over tomorrow and into the weekend as everyone and their mothers and brothers and sisters will cover anything short. 

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 16:58 | 2527222 jubber
jubber's picture

I guess this just happens to save JPM form a US$ 50 Billion loss, how lucky was that eh?

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 17:01 | 2527231 GNWT
GNWT's picture

You  mean a few more day so yelling, "Fuck you, fuck you assholes..."

at the tape...

Reminds me of the old "Don't Fight the Fed" days in the early 90s.

But I will stick with "f...

G

Stay liquid my friends...

 

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 17:03 | 2527234 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Anyone trying to "trade" (front-run) this "market" without the benefit of inside information deserves the losses that they have coming.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 17:13 | 2527255 GNWT
GNWT's picture

Bam, 

There are more ways today than ever to play 

this with risk limitation, get your QQQ options, 

nice and liquid, weekly expiration...

if you think the big bad gov will screw you and you 

are so sure, buy it.

It can only go up or down, you need to do some work on risk control, 

ladder into a 13 week QQQ put position and call me 

on Labor day if the phones are still working...

If not, will be out watering my garden...or should

I not do that because Helicopter Ben is going to send me

money to buy food?

G

Stay liquid my friends...

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 19:07 | 2527514 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Thing is, no matter what you do, you'll never get away from counter-party risk, and one of these days...

*poof*

You're gonna get Corzined.

Cuz we all know that the DTCC is every bit as trustworthy as the people/entities that own it.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 17:05 | 2527241 GNWT
GNWT's picture

When we take over, I want Larry Kudlow

strung up by his phoney upper class

cocaine fucked up nose and ears and 

sprout some green shoots up...

And Charely Gasparino will have the cell 

next to Jamie and Lloyd so he can have ALL

the source access he needs...

G

Stay liquid my friends...

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 17:50 | 2527359 Mark123
Mark123's picture

You are just like a modern day Martin Luther King Jr...."I have a dream, that one day

When we take over, I want Larry Kudlow

strung up by his phoney upper class

cocaine fucked up nose and ears and 

sprout some green shoots up...

And Charely Gasparino will have the cell 

next to Jamie and Lloyd so he can have ALL

the source access he needs...

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 17:05 | 2527242 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

The DJIA jumped from 12,590.34  to  12,690.05 in 5 minutes based on a RUMOR of the possibility of more easing.

Can anyone say FUBAR?

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 17:22 | 2527276 walküre
walküre's picture

The BOE says they're easing. FED is expected to follow.

Smoke and mirrors though. The pathetic reason given by the BOE will be dissected and digested in no time.

Coordinated efforts my ass. The con game is up. Easing doesn't bring back or create jobs, it just expands balance sheets into the stratosphere and brings hyperinflation. Higher inflation means higher cost of production, higher prices and less consumption. Vicious cycle.

They can't stimulate growth with the lure of cheaper credits. Someone still has to take the credit and put the money to work.

That is the problem. The money isn't put to work and in the light of a full blown global recession / depression the money won't be put to work. It gets hoarded or converted to gold and silver.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 17:33 | 2527313 Law97
Law97's picture

So why didn't PM's buy the rumor?

 

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 17:46 | 2527346 Mark123
Mark123's picture

Precious metals....the only asset class managed down.  And yet, it is what the bankers have always treasured the most.

 

What do you want to bet that they have all the gold sold by England in their private vaults?  Thanks Tony Balir you pathetic little front-man/weasel.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 19:08 | 2527517 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Blythe has to eat too, ya know.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 17:23 | 2527280 booboo
booboo's picture

FUBRA, wait, FRUBA, DAMMIT! FABRU, OH FUCK IT! 

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 17:47 | 2527350 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

There is something there we can work with...

 

FUBRA = Fvcked Up Bad Really Awful

FRUBA = Fvcked Royally Up Bad Awful

FABRU = Fvcked Awful Bad Royally Unbelievable

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 17:25 | 2527293 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

another

bizzar000,ooo,OOO000 = 1 tail wagging day

we may all be hopelessly trapped but at least we are hopelessly funny about our hopeless money, honey

the fiat bankster illusion, in realTime

martian hypnotics;  clothing optional

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 17:29 | 2527302 fuu
fuu's picture

Deer Park, Sanbernardino.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 17:40 | 2527330 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

MF Global Trustee Gets $130 Million From CME for Payouts  [i'm afraid to look]

this is for you to recoup yer campaign losses, fuu >---> Manchester United Said to Plan Filing for $500 Million U.S. IPO

this is the real deal and we should try to get a loan and just snap up the whole thing

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 18:34 | 2527445 fuu
fuu's picture

Ok so CME sat on $130 million of MF Global's customer account money for 227+ days and they are maybe going to give it back if the BK judge approves?

 

"Jefferies Group Inc. (JEF) has been added as a manager for the IPO, alongside JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN), while Morgan Stanley will no longer advise on the transaction, the people said."

lol @ MS.

"Formula One Chief Executive Officer Bernie Ecclestone said May 31 that the auto racing series’ planned IPO may not take place until later this year because of time pressures and a volatile equity market. Ecclestone said he’s busy handling business, such as talks with the promoters for a proposed 2013 race in New Jersey, and can’t devote the necessary time to the IPO."

wtf?

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 19:39 | 2527589 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i honestly was afraid to look

i know nothing!  L0L!!!

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 20:02 | 2527648 fuu
fuu's picture

Anyway, I'm more an Arsenal fan, fuck JPM.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 19:11 | 2527527 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

$130M? Well, once they lever that shit up to buy those high-yielding Spanish bonds, it ought to be about enough to make everyone whole, no?

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 17:26 | 2527295 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Is the week over? Am I missing something?

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 19:12 | 2527531 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I hear that tomorrow is Witch Day. Not sure of how many though.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 17:42 | 2527335 Mark123
Mark123's picture

With unlimited access to 0% margin for primary dealers, what point is there to look at volume or trade size these days?  I get the feeling the primary dealers just buy and sell to each other all day long using their massive computers creating the impression of an active, liquid market.  In reality, all you have are a bunch of pension funds, mutual funds and insurance companies buying and holding, while the rest of us play games trying so skim profits (from massive hedge funds to day traders).

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 17:57 | 2527376 ronaldawg
ronaldawg's picture

Gawg - I am so sick of the skim that these banks get - can it just collapse already?

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 18:08 | 2527407 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

Goddamn sons-of bitches, fuckers of mothers, suckers of cocks, holes of asses, heads of shit, rear-ends of donkeys, wipers of asses !!!!!!

There, I feel better now, and can face this week's brokerage trade log without puking ...

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 18:45 | 2527470 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Hey Poly. Need a cracker? You sound like a sugar crashing parrot!

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 18:59 | 2527493 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

I'd gladly accept your generous offer, Ms. Creant, of a tasty cracker, but alas, I've lost a bit of my appetite, having been whipsawed precisely in half.  I have secret plans, however,  to peck their little eyes out tomorrow, with the assistance of my feathered friends (aka "Gang Green").  Oops, secret's out ...  try and stop me, G20 bastards ...

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 18:53 | 2527484 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Why would the G20 need a plan if they were able to be control things?

Duh?

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 18:59 | 2527492 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Tyler. Perhaps we should discuss why the dollar is being sold off? (refresher course). Perhaps we should discuss F/X flows.

   EG; ACB/ME rebalancing. Dollar selling to prop currency bands in Emerging markets. Euro buying to re-balance Sovereign F/X portfolios.

   Hedging PM's and Macro (Geo Political) events.

  Greece is toast, and it's priced in!

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 19:53 | 2527623 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

risk0n wasn't priced in quite enuf

friday afternoon prez0 will announce a national bank holiday monday and a test of emergency broadcast systems and a practice nation-wide curfew;  maybe ATM limits for a short time and everyone must get new passports for national security reasons

then, on tuesday...

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 20:03 | 2527645 chump666
chump666's picture

No big deal.  Market is oversold short term, trading ranges fixed.  The Fed WILL NOT do QE3, but a sleight of hand MBS/USD swap/Op Twists and gawd knows what else the money printing maniacs come up with. But no publicly announced QE3.  Which means no new highs, the beat down for the US economy will come from Asia.  If Bernanke rallies oil/indust commods China will sell USTs and buy USDs, push rates up.

So a war of attrition between the Fed and China. 

 

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 21:00 | 2527823 Godisanhftbot
Godisanhftbot's picture

 I tweeted FB was trading dry yest.  Obvious.

 

 You didn't know a pile of steaming crap could also be dry, did ya.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 21:33 | 2527921 robs98ss
robs98ss's picture

Hey guys, I am not really familiar with the models that are used here, as I'm an engineer by trade.

Could someone provide a brief explanation or perhaps some reading material on what the different models are?

I'd like to know what exactly is ES? I assume its some sort of equity sentiment indicator, but I dont know how its calculated. It seems to mirror the SPY but is it influenced by other US equity factors? Also what is the capital context model? I enjoy these updates everyday, but I'm ashamed to say that I dont clearly understand parts of them the way I'd like to.

 

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 21:34 | 2527924 Godisanhftbot
Godisanhftbot's picture

 You don't want to know , these are the same models JPM used to lose 5 billion.

Fri, 06/15/2012 - 02:43 | 2528486 farmboy
farmboy's picture

It is simplely just the pre option experiation ramp up as so many times has happened to rig prices on the opening next day.

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