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Copper Jumps More Than 3 Standard Deviations On Largest 2-Day Rally Since March 09

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Presented with little comment - aside from a snark nod to Trichet's much-heralded price-stability platform - Copper (at current levels) looks set to make its largest two-day rally since MAR09 with a shift well over three standard deviations from long-run means. Its hard to comprehend a higher USD and still falling SHCOMP along with the perspective that China is a little hot and may need more tightening with this ramp-fest, but then again applying sense to these markets is now nonsense anyway.

Chart: Bloomberg

 


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Mon, 10/24/2011 - 10:48 | Link to Comment DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

leverage capitalism is back!

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 11:12 | Link to Comment French Frog
French Frog's picture

Yeah, look at crude too: on a free roll to 90 

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 10:50 | Link to Comment junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Strap in, the bull market is back

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 10:58 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Until Wednesday. 

Remember the last big market tank was on our own 'debt resolution' at DOW 12,700 when everyone was certain markets would shoot straight up. 

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 11:29 | Link to Comment French Frog
French Frog's picture

Last time was a trick to make everyone believe that the market had already priced in the next QE (or even only an expectation of new QE) or Euro debt resolution.

This current move has already killed many shorts on the way up and will probably decimate all those still hanging and hoping for a repeat performance (ie. a sharp drop on any substantial bad news).

Alas, I fear that they will play the card that that most bad news are now priced in and any improvement on that will likely lead to an even bigger meltup

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 10:50 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Three standard deviations, seven deviations, whatever.

This entire clusterfuck is a massive deviation.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 10:53 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

Clusterflock.

Hi CD.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 11:44 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Hey fuu, nice turn of phrase there with the "Clusterflock".

Haven't been around ZH much lately. Working other projects. Thanks for saying high.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 10:51 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

OOOOOOOOO DOCTOR!!!!

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 10:53 | Link to Comment ruffian
ruffian's picture

it's QE to infinity and beyond.......that's what the mkts are pricing.........bernank is going to do Europes dirty work, bail out greece, global banking, our federal govt and all muni's as well...........cant you hear the thunder in the distance............

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 10:59 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

QE is a used tool, not effective for anything now.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 11:03 | Link to Comment ruffian
ruffian's picture

wrong, it's good for one thing...lifting asset prices.........1255 S&P then watch it all puke.......then the cavelry arrives

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 11:10 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The cavalry arrives with what....more free money to stuff into TBTF bank vaults? Then what?

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 10:53 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Stairway to heaven, one standard deviation at a time.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 11:46 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Very nice. May I steal that? :>)

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 10:54 | Link to Comment baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

Looks like the bottom is in for Gold and Silver.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 10:58 | Link to Comment ruffian
ruffian's picture

No, risk topping here.........europe fails to agree........mkts tank..........bernank comes to rescue..........just about to sell off hard so Bernank has excuse to ride to the rescue

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 10:59 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And then what?

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 11:00 | Link to Comment ruffian
ruffian's picture

hyperinflation........

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 11:01 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I still dont think so...no one has the money to pay for hyperinflation.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 11:05 | Link to Comment ruffian
ruffian's picture

what do you mean?.....digital fiat creation is infinite

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 11:08 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

People dont have the money. Create as much imaginary currency as you want to hand to the banks, what difference does that make when its not in the peoples hands?

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 11:12 | Link to Comment ruffian
ruffian's picture

the banks use the newly created digital fiat to buy all scarcity...things that cant be created out of thin air.....what does it matter WHO has the newly printed fiat.....thats why the public suffer........the first hands to touch new fiat (banks) have the advantage as they buy up all matter

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 11:13 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

OK so banks 'buy everything up'....then what do they do with it?

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 11:16 | Link to Comment ruffian
ruffian's picture

seriously?.....I've got things to do.......think about it.........why hold something that has infinite supply.....it loses value..........own scarcity......holds it';s value.............sheesh

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 12:16 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

As you can see, people turn off when they hit the wall after a few levels of questions.

I'd been asking this question for a long time.  When everyone is destitute except the few, then what is that value of the things that those few have?  People will be conditioned to living outside the McMansion, HDTV, iCrap and Hummer world.  All that CRAP will be exactly what we're seeing it's worth- nothing (nearing nothing currently).

In exchange for playing the game of extend and pretend, the banks take on worthless shit and are given worthless fiat (which is really only binary bits to pad their failing books).

The people that are giving you a hard time are likely those who are sitting on some pile of (soon to be) worthless crap.  They HAVE to believe that things would somehow turn around.  Or, if they are NOT in this situation, they probably believe that there's some massive NWO campaign.  Well, this results of this would be the same as I stated above- people won't find value in it, so that System (much as is happening with the existing system) won't get off the ground.

Yeah, it's the simple questions that everyone dodges: like "can you have infinite growth on a finite planet?"  In this case it's a simple question of: "why would the leaders of the status quo risk destabilizing the status quo if doing so presents a great risk to their retention of power?"

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 18:56 | Link to Comment deebee
deebee's picture

mind the margin hikes

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 10:56 | Link to Comment campag
campag's picture

Brent crude very slow to  joining in with the ramp in prices . could this be the Libya effect ?

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 11:01 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Oil is too real to be allowed to follow along in the price ramping. Of course as usual, there is NO inflation...

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 11:15 | Link to Comment campag
campag's picture

nope WTI is strong is this the correction of Brent/WTI prices

too early to confirm

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 11:05 | Link to Comment NetDamage
NetDamage's picture

CME bought some cheap gold spraypaint? 

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 11:15 | Link to Comment SAME AS IT EVER WAS
SAME AS IT EVER WAS's picture

"but then again applying sense to these markets is now nonsense anyway"

Have they never made any sense, execpt the blizting of end of the world headlines right before a bullish market turn?

SSDD!

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 11:28 | Link to Comment bill1102inf
bill1102inf's picture

And yet there are still those who think the grand cure all is for  countries to tie their currencies to some form of metal. LMAO...

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 11:31 | Link to Comment common_sense
common_sense's picture

and falling again to hell... hug hug hug...

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 11:42 | Link to Comment Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

You can re-QE and it will only bring the market back to where it was before it sold off so violently.

I'm waiting for David Tepper to come on CNBC again.

Life is a day trade.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 11:54 | Link to Comment mantrid
mantrid's picture

ah, volatility in commodities. standard excuse for margin hikes. JP Morgan has to close their silver shorts and they're not happy to do it at these prices. encouraging CME to hike only silver would be a bit lame. so, volatility here, volatility there and the setting will be done.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 12:03 | Link to Comment bill1102inf
bill1102inf's picture

Look at that lovely chart. Now, imagine if the USD was somehow pegged to the value of copper (or gold) or any other single 'thing'.  One day gasoline is $5.00, the next $3.00, one day eggs are $1.50, the next $.80, ohhhh what a joy that would be.  

 

Then there are those that think they will be rich if we actually 'reset'. lmao.  IF that were to happen, and for every dollar we wanted to have in the system we removed 10, well, everything goes down by at least 10. But, since we use 'debt dollars' and since debt will be purged on a massive scale the value of things will be even less. So, gold at 1600, suddenly becomes worth 160 directly, but indirectly due to debt purging and credit contraction on a massively leveraged scale (at least to start) itll probably wind up closer to 16 but absolutely less than 160.

 

 

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 15:43 | Link to Comment mantrid
mantrid's picture

lol, this volatility is possible because USD is 'pegged' to nothing? this is incredible how the uninformed get things flipped. if you have tons of paper money wondering there and back then you have volatility. I don't see tons of gold or copper wondering like that. does it have something to do with the fact that you have to actually put some effort to increase their supply? :D

prices would be volatile if there were no speculation, no hedgeing, no exchanges and futures. but if some banksters create money out of nothing, how can one hedge against paper tsunami?

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 12:19 | Link to Comment Wheatman
Wheatman's picture

Why does Tyler always complain when risk assets, the Ero, Oil etc rally and ES ramps all the time? Just becuase you lose money Tyler, no need to whinge. Trade the volatility UP. Remember, no-one ios allowed to sell this market. It is not nice to sell, and it is bad manners. What a clusterfuck, but dont complain about it.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 12:19 | Link to Comment Elmer Fudd
Elmer Fudd's picture

The dollar is a turd?

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 12:25 | Link to Comment LudwigVon
LudwigVon's picture

Another great post TD. TY, as usual.

Lastly I want to remark that continuing to follow Agriculture and fertilizer source minerals closely for ZH readers would be very valuable !! Please do not relent focus in this area.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 12:27 | Link to Comment TheArmageddonTrader
TheArmageddonTrader's picture

This is all about the unexpectedly strong data on Chinese copper imports in September. Which I suspect was largely just stocks being moved around as a result of the liquidation by financial investors last month. The data counts how much comes out of the bonded warehouses. Which in normal times is a good proxy for consumption, but September was anything but normal times in the copper market.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 13:01 | Link to Comment Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

Oh, that Doctor Copper. First he told us to turn our head and cough, and now he says, "You're going to feel a little pressure..." Bullshit. This is going to hurt.

Mon, 10/24/2011 - 14:12 | Link to Comment mr1963
mr1963's picture

Save pre 1982 pennies and any nickels...

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