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Credit Is From Mars, Stocks Are From Venus, Or Another Reason Why This Market Looks Increasingly Like 2008

Tyler Durden's picture





 

From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors

Credit Is From Mars, Stocks Are From Venus

So stocks rallied into the conference call.  Stocks rallied after the conference call.  I have the various headlines and stories surrounding the statements following the conference call.  I am bearish, but I try to adjust for that as I read things to attempt to see if something has changed. I cannot find anything particularly appealing about the conference call summary.  Certainly nothing new, and if anything, the bearish side of me could say they spent time figuring out how a post default Greece could remain in the Eurozone.  That is too bearish, but I fail to see anything new or particularly compelling about the stories in the immediate aftermath.

It is still ironic that Greece's way to a budget surplus is through austerity, but our path to austerity is the big new jobs program?

The SPX is up over 3% on the week, but SocGen stock is down a smidgen, HYG is up less than 1/2% and IG16 is 4 bps tighter, while MAIN, at the center of the maelstrom is only 6 tighter.  Stocks seem to have outperformed credit rather handily.  It is particularly curious since the headlines imply that stocks are doing better because credit, and the PIIGS in particular are doing better.  Yet the Greek 2 year bond hit an all time low of 47.5 today.  That has to be the single cheapest asset out there.  All Greece has to do is muddle along for 11 more months (the debt has an August maturity) and you would more than double your money!  Heck, if you can buy the debt and get paid 71, where the bond was less than a month ago, that would be a 50% return.  What are the odds of the SPX being at 1775 any time soon?  What is recovery on Greece?  If it is 40, you lose 7.5 points.  Yes, that is a 16% loss, but will the SPX not breach 1100 if Greece defaults?  From 1190 isn't there easily a 10% downside move in SPX? 

The fact that stocks keep reacting more positively to Greek news, than Greek bonds is scary.  It is somewhat reminiscent of 2008 when stocks kept rallying on allegedly good news even when debt struggled to perform on the news that was supposed to impact it most. 

And for all the talk that Greece is priced in, the reaction after the erroneous headline about Austria approving EFSF shows that is unlikely true.  Stocks hit 1163 on that news and the decline only stopped because the correction was printed.  That is over 2.5% lower than we are right now, so I don't think Greek default is priced in.  Stock futures are up a full 3% from their overnight lows.  Crazy and broken moves. 

For all the talk of BRIC's buying PIIGS debt, Italian 10 year bonds are still 1.5% lower on the week.  Yes, stocks are up because Italian debt is not as down as much as it might be?  Fuzzy logic at best.  At least earlier in the week, treasuries participated in the risk on trade by selling off.  Today, in spite of such a strong move in stocks, treasuries are barely unchanged.

The truly scary thing is we haven't even had the full "Eurobonds announced" rally.  Where does that take SPX?  1230 again?  I just can't convince myself that long is the right trade right now.  Ironically, strong stocks may be their own worst enemy, as they give some European politicians the strength to do what they want - and not provide more funds to bailouts.  Now I'm clutching at straws, but hey, what else to do as stocks march higher.  I have checked the newswire several times while writing this.  Expecting to see some new comments or twist on the comments that justifies this push in stocks, and I just can't see it.  And I really don't see a strong reaction in the credit markets either. Even BAC cannot seem to rally back to Warren's strike price, let alone where they got in the immediate aftermath of his headline grabbing, stock spiking, investment.

 

As an aside to Pete's excellent point, we noticed that Capital Context's risk-basket was indicating equities are in a world of their own to some extent this afternoon relative to broad risk-assets:

 


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Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:06 | Link to Comment Bokkenrijder
Bokkenrijder's picture

Anyone want to remind us of what happened to gold in 2008 after Lehman Bros...?

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:08 | Link to Comment Gubbmint Cheese
Gubbmint Cheese's picture

sure - it fell a little.. and then marched up to a recent high over $1900.

 

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:22 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Krugman is from Mars, Bernanke's from Uranus.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:29 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

I tried to +1 TIS's post but I can't. Cursor does not turn into a little hand and arrow is unclickable. When my cursor is over arrows on other posts on the page it does turn into a little hand. I've seen this before. What is it?

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:30 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I've seen that before too and I don't know either but have meant to bring it to ZH's attention.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:46 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

And now, page two:

TIS's post is now +2 but it's still unclickable for me.

And now you know the rest of the story.*

 

*With apologies to Paul Harvey

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:08 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Yes. The opportunity of a lifetime.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:29 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Yes a bunch of douchebags buying paper on margin got screwed like the rest of the fiat universe...but people that were buying and holding physical gold and silver are now wiping their asses with FRNs.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:52 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

When the S&P was at 666 gold was at all time highs, and you couldn't buy any anywhere. 

Doing the math based on this chart, puts gold at $485 in 2008 money:

http://nowandfutures.com/images/fed_all_short_term.png

It is already 50% cheaper than post Lehman.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:07 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

'The fact that stocks keep reacting more positively to Greek news, than Greek bonds is scary.'

That's your mistake: asking questions. Just repeat: Greece is fixed.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:31 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Greece always gets the squeaky wheel.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:07 | Link to Comment Gubbmint Cheese
Gubbmint Cheese's picture

up up and away.

I'm done with this bullshit - goodbye stocks see you at S&P 650.

 

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:07 | Link to Comment Corn1945
Corn1945's picture

Definitely strikes me as similar to 2008. If I remember correctly, there were real signs of stress developing but the market kept rallying. It made no sense at the time either.

We've got a lot of the same. Insolvent banks. Bank CEOs on TV. Rumors all over the place.

The market just doesn't seemt to care about the bad news. At least six months ago, there was some decent news mixed in. Now the decent news is totally gone.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:12 | Link to Comment Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Yeah bad news all over, NBA lockup is imminent...but hey, NFL is back so lets sit back and look forward to Sunday!

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:12 | Link to Comment vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

In Michael Lewis's book about the 2008 crisis he mentions interviewing hedge fund managers and how they could not understand what was going on.  The worst the news got the more aggressive the buying was.  They found out later it was a combination of hedge fund managers doubling down to catch up and quants chasing momo. 

 

Looks like the same thing to me again.

 

 

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:50 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

This is how the big boys play in the New Normal market.  They run prices up and get the algos chasing.  They let the dumb algos take the last leg, which the big boys sell into.  You can see it now, the block selling.  

The secondary benefit is that, now that the algos have marked stocks to "stupid", the institutions have the green light to bear raid without much fear of the market snapping back on them.

Oh...and also...prices don't mean anything anymore.  The computer Pachinko machine market can price things anywhere...and then change them in seconds.  And you won't know what happened until you see the roll up quotes in the after hours, when it will be revealed that massive selling was going on...but most folks could not see it as it was perpetrated through an anlternative exchange.

These last two hours...entirely for the sucker fish.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:08 | Link to Comment alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

I'm just sitting here, with mouth agape, watching the /ES climb like there is no end in sight and no trouble on earth.

an absolutely amazing display of fantasy over reality.

(I have no positions at the moment on anything)

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:59 | Link to Comment LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

When you can print money out of thin air, in secrecy, and spread rumors via your bought and paid for media outlets, you can string a crisis out for a long time. There is no reason for the markets behaving like this. Stocks up gold down, blah, blah, blah. Currencies being printed like no tomorrow, banks insolvent, economies stagnant, countries on the verge of collapse, and gold goes down? WTH is going on.......!?!?!?!?

No one can figure this crap out except those that create the inside information. I am sitting on the sidelines waiting for more concrete direction. I think after Bernanke's speech we will get more predictable movement.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 16:01 | Link to Comment prains
prains's picture

I'm long chinese embedded HFT algo's doing a whack job in the near future.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:08 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

We have had a 42+ handle move in the past 3 days based on nothing but headline algos.  This disconnect between FICC and equities is idiotic.  This smells as a corrdinated effort by the Banks and HF community to drive up the price and then leave investors holding the flaming bag of dog shit. 

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:09 | Link to Comment chunga
chunga's picture

Meanwhile...DJIA up 200. Makes more sense trying to predict the gyrations of a Lava Lamp.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:15 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

That is a lot easier as all acting forces on the lava lamp are grounded in reality, so there is a fair amount of predictability.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 18:33 | Link to Comment Breaker
Breaker's picture

Well, lava lamp bubbles usually go up. Just like the stock market. But they don't go up faster on bad news like the ES does.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 18:33 | Link to Comment Breaker
Breaker's picture

Well, lava lamp bubbles usually go up. Just like the stock market. But they don't go up faster on bad news like the ES does.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:10 | Link to Comment Lye
Lye's picture

Market can't tank on "news," because there are so many rumors floating around there's no way to know what to believe.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:11 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

And are you aware how different this is than 2008. At that time central banks were selling gold, now they are buying it. And individuals like us from all over the world are stashing gold. It is Not for Sale. Do not care where it goes short term. Totally different now.

I have not had any stocks for a long while outside of miners. And I like what I got. And as posted, just cannot short this market.....yet.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:14 | Link to Comment Bokkenrijder
Bokkenrijder's picture

Governments are also buying up ther own sovereign debt through their proxies: the FED and ECB.

Is that a good investment as well?

p.s. Gold fell about 30% after 2008, so why buy now for $1800 when you can by it for $1200-1300 in a few months?

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 16:31 | Link to Comment LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

Your assuming you can get your hands on it.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:11 | Link to Comment jbc77
jbc77's picture

Sometimes Zerohedge can read my mind. I'm looking at the ramp in the markets today and asking myself how this could be happening when a systemic crisis has infected European banks. Are we chalking this up to a broken market or what? Another day in the Twilight Zone.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 16:06 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Given there are no humans trading anymore, this manipulation is hardly surprising.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:11 | Link to Comment TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

(This "Game" is for MEN not Children!)..said one trader and sold at a loss :)))))!

Yes I agree it is 2008 all over again and yes, trully, "this time it's different" too :)))!

Was cautious enough to roll my puts into next month on that big (last?) down day, i'm good, for nwo at least!

Got to keep trying, some day these suckers will get what they deserve and I want to be there!!!

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:12 | Link to Comment nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

Searching for sanity in an insane world

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:17 | Link to Comment runlevel
runlevel's picture

the peter SCHIFF shoaOHHH

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:33 | Link to Comment baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

Peter Schiff Testifies Before Congressional Jobs Committee 9/13/2011

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPOr1bz5VDc

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 16:41 | Link to Comment Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

You can tell Schiff definitely challenged the standard thought process of some on the committee.  They will remember his words, but will refuse to act on them.  Facts cannot get in the way of the governmental maching.  They really do need to continue to be breaking our legs, handing us crutches, and then going on TV to show how they helped a man walk. 

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 16:53 | Link to Comment Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

My thesis is that this is literally the case, i.e., man as a species is insane:

http://www.spiritoftruth.org/Thesis/Intro

Specifically, we suffer from collective manic-depression, i.e., the mad genius syndrome.  One of the most telltale signs of this is the seasonality of mass mood swings.  Note that the "Fall" is typically when their are boughts of collective panics and onsets of major depression.  

http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2011/08/fall-is-approaching.html

This is also typical of bipolar patients in mental hospitals.

So when you comment in jest about the world being insane, I believe a well-grounded scientific study of mass human behavior reveals that, in fact, this is the case, in perfect contradiction to the extraordinary popular delusions in economic "science" where "rational expectations" and "efficient markets" are touted to be the case.  Little do economic theorists realize that they themselves are shining examples of the incredible IRRATIONALITY of man.

JMHO

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:13 | Link to Comment ironymonger
ironymonger's picture

So this couldn't just be the continuation of a short squeeze? I thought that was the point of yesterday's article on open interest.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:14 | Link to Comment Belarus
Belarus's picture

All this is is a short covering rally. It's like the fire was lit under the feet of shorts and as it gets hotter and hotter than shorts capitulate one by one. I know Sheep Dog will hate this statement but the time to short will be when the shorts are exhausted, battered, and bruised. That's when this fucker will topple. BTW, the author said he was lightening up on his shorts the other day--good job. 

 

 

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:14 | Link to Comment LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

I'm looking forward to October 1st. Nice date; all "Armageddon-bankruptcy-eurobonds" talk will be over. Greece will receive money, pay everything and doomprophets and markets will quiet again. No Armageddon by then. Sleep well.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:52 | Link to Comment taraxias
taraxias's picture

You forgot the "Boring world we live in" troll

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 17:20 | Link to Comment POpatriot
POpatriot's picture

It looks like Germany and possibly China is going to transfer their wealth to losing countries. No question it will stave off the collapse for awhile.  This obviously isn't a long term solution and fixes nothing besides giving someone who is broke a new credit card cosigned by a buddy. 

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:17 | Link to Comment pschwammerl
pschwammerl's picture

I am similarly dumbfounded. But then I reminded me that some bears are tougher than others, like on the other side.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:33 | Link to Comment slyhill
slyhill's picture

and some bear's mothers are tougher than other bear's mothers...

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:17 | Link to Comment LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

Maybe I will buy euro's, they will rise after all the doom.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:18 | Link to Comment 1000yrdstare
1000yrdstare's picture

but I am hedging for Armageddon!!!

 

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:18 | Link to Comment nachtliche
nachtliche's picture

Since when is long EVER the right trade according to zerohedge? And since when did the markets react rationally? 

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:18 | Link to Comment Belarus
Belarus's picture

BTW, I think gold and silver is also showing this is like fall of '08. If europeans are running from banks, they are also running from brokerage accounts, which means GLD and SLV get liquidiated.....to go buy, ahem, Gold and Silver. 

It really is two markets in Gold and Silver. 

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:50 | Link to Comment pasttense
pasttense's picture

If this were true there would be a massive increase in premiums to buy physical gold and silver. Does anyone see it?

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:20 | Link to Comment jsavage
jsavage's picture

QE3 baby!

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:21 | Link to Comment pschwammerl
pschwammerl's picture

I seriously doubt this. The Euro will soon be a carcass to flee from. With or without Germany.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:21 | Link to Comment The Axe
The Axe's picture

ZH  has in the past, published the huge amount of insider-selling....Yet, the always darkside Tyler...has yet to mention that insiders are finally buying and buying big,   HESS  huge insider buy, along with CLWR, DNRN, CLR  and many others. especially small regional banks.   even F    so maybe this oversold market has a small reason to rally

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:25 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

What would make your post worthy of reading is if you posted some credible morsel of information regarding "the insiders" who are "buying big," and who aren't only not buying, but who may be hedged, and furthermore, who do you know that's an "insider?"

Are you an insider? Are you John Wayne?

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:35 | Link to Comment CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Marion Morrison was John Wayne.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 19:42 | Link to Comment IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

Insider trades are publicly posted information; he gave you the stock symbols; that's all the information that's necessary.  The "F" is extremely significant; for your homework assignment you can go find out why. It's too bad you belong to a cult that only believes in bear markets, because they go both ways.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 23:56 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

He gave me 3 or 4 companies where officers are buying.

Do you care to put up a fiver and bet that buying is a drop in the lake that is selling at this time?

I'll take that other side.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 19:46 | Link to Comment IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

The chart of the S&P500 contract on the CME is absolutely astounding. It shows five, or seven, depending on how you want to look at it; tops that failed at 1200; but the bottoms are constantly rising. One definition of a bull market is a market that produces higher lows. The market will break thrue 1200 and it'll probably go to 1240 on the same day.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 21:39 | Link to Comment Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

Same chart I am looking at.  BTFD bitchez...

BTW, the algos, etf's, and general risk on/off sentiment where all boats rise and fall in unison is paradise from a value perspective.  Fundamentals will wash out in time, stay thirsty my friends.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:22 | Link to Comment Quadlet
Quadlet's picture
Stocks Rally on Stabilization Efforts
Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:23 | Link to Comment catladdy
catladdy's picture

ES Shorts: 'Hope you were able to move aside as suggested the last three days. We're close to a good shorting back drop,but not here.

 

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:24 | Link to Comment Zonker
Zonker's picture

So having been through 2008, you don't think that "They" know how to sidestep it?  Come on, history may rhyme, but it doea not repeat!

Z

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:24 | Link to Comment SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Are they building a bridge to Ber-shankie on 9/21?   Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:25 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Papandreou-Merkel-Sarkozy press release is driving the markets...

 

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:26 | Link to Comment GenX Investor
GenX Investor's picture

The markets are moving, courtesy of quote stuffing and limited participants, to try and hit its fib targets so it can then retrace. Could we have a buy the rumor and sell the event situation? Most short coverers will be done after today, what about tomorrow or Friday? Or Monday? We are close to retrace levels right now.  I don't know, just speculating....

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:28 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Who needs QE3 or QE30 when a bankrupt beggar thy neighbor G-Pap can jawbone markets (the only thing that matters, as the world burns down around them, in Bernank's Virtuous Circle Theorem) 3% higher by speaking bullshit?

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 16:05 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

when better BiCheZ are made...

...amherst men will make them?

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:31 | Link to Comment slyhill
slyhill's picture

must be shaken out the shorties. deeper the short, higher the climb.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:36 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

On days like these I ask myself "what would gluskin sheff do?", then I do the opposite.

 

Gluskin-Foreskin-Sheff, the other GS.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:35 | Link to Comment gringo28
gringo28's picture

in other news, the EURUSD bounced, as predicted when it dives to a 2.5 sigma in a week, and, equities bounced, as predicted when a bunch of bloggers get all excited for the Apocalypse to appear, finally.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:36 | Link to Comment vegas
vegas's picture

Anybody here but me who remembers the Nasdaq climb to 5,000 in 1999? A lot of "smart" money got crushed shorting to early, trying to buck the climb higher. Only when the shorts ran out of money being early did the real damage begin.

Same here with the Euro. On the surface, being short EURUSD seems the obvious trade. But remember, exchanges and governments will do everything in their power to keep the status quo and burn speculators.

They have learned their lesson well from the 1970's and 80's, and time their jawboning and interventions for maximum speculator pain.

When will the Euro get really crushed [if it comes]?
When nobody has any money left from selling it day after day after week on end.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:39 | Link to Comment gringo28
gringo28's picture

just stay true to the maxim that the only way out for the US is a cheaper USD and you can't ge there without a stronger/stable EUR.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:42 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

So WHAT IS the way out for the EU, then?

I would insist that if there is one, it does not lay in a cheaper EUR.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:48 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

rilly?

been to the store lately?  bought any PMs?

didja see where y-o-y "sales" ~~ = ~~ y-o-y "price increases"?

just stay true to having yer head wedged!

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:36 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Me thinks banks wrote a bunch of puts last month that expire this month.  Expirey is coming up.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:42 | Link to Comment DUNTHAT
DUNTHAT's picture

exactly right.  just manipulating to save a few bucks. so much for the SEC

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:37 | Link to Comment gatorontheloose
gatorontheloose's picture

i bought 100 fas to stop the rise.  ya'll can thank me at 4pm

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:38 | Link to Comment economessed
economessed's picture

Folks, it's not a market.  It's where dumb money goes to die.

Q.E.D.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:47 | Link to Comment TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

Hahahaha good one!

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:41 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

peter buy-a-vowel tchr musta missed tyler's "buy cheap straddles" call, yest

was he...?? ...Motley Crue - Smokin In Da BoyZ' Room - YouTube...???...

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:41 | Link to Comment gatorontheloose
gatorontheloose's picture

see, there we go.  much better.

 

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:43 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

I'll get back to the data on intergalactic trading time after I fire up my crack pipe.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:46 | Link to Comment gatorontheloose
gatorontheloose's picture

you think i can time the peak while at work and on the phone?  I wasn't even looking at a chart.  retail participation just gets top ticked.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:47 | Link to Comment Lady Heather...UNCLE
Lady Heather...UNCLE's picture

...have entered one trade all week : shorted S&P at 1177 this morning. Bought back (at a 2% capital at risk loss) at 1180. The whole thing just stank of an engineered short squeeze. Then went to bed (am in New Zealand). Woke up to a market making 1200 (mid). Needless to say, I wish I had turned the position long at 1180, but I didn't. But with shorts on the NYSE at 2 year highs, I have a feeling that more capitulation is due...and the fucking thimg goes north another 20-30 points. I will not be on that journey though. It is WAY too risky. One day, this thing will fall massively...but not this week. And FOMC next week. Buy rumour/sell fact scenario??

Anyway, good luck to fellow ZHers out there.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 16:02 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

hey, uncle leather!

no biggie, as you say; only money and a smell of funny...

didja miss the short squeeze blogging earlier?  the reported 1/2 gazillion ++ short interest increase in a week?  tyler's thinking: that longs and shorts are gonna l-o-s-e, so buy "cheap straddles"? 

w/ options expiry on friday, rollercoasters are fun!

free advice is always hard to take.  got cash, gold and silver coinage?  supplies? 

how much money is your "broker" holding for you in your account?  ever heard of counterparty risk in NZ?  gold as "the punisher"?

g/l to you, too!  there is no substitute for luck!

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:49 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Market giving it back...

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:52 | Link to Comment gatorontheloose
gatorontheloose's picture

sold it now for shits n giggles.  there's the turn

 

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:59 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

Follow the DAX to get a sense of reality in this chapter of the debt crises.

DAX touched July 2009 lows yesterday and was off about 50% from its peak earlier this year.

DAX screamed higher even before S&P caught the ride. There is money going into equities today.

Why? We'll find out after a week of upside momentum when the dumb money is supposed to flow back in.

 

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 16:00 | Link to Comment pantheo
pantheo's picture

and at the same time, every fin minister is getting this memo...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/14/us-eurozone-idUSTRE78B24R20110914

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 16:10 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

The banks holding the shitty Greek paper have insurance on it.

Who is the counterparty to the trade? That's the big question.

My BET is that 1 or 2 of the major US banks are going down if Greece defaults.

End of Days.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 16:11 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Credit Crunch. It isn't just for breakfast, anymore.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 16:02 | Link to Comment ZippyDooDah
ZippyDooDah's picture

Options Ex, bitchezz!

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 17:10 | Link to Comment epwpixieq-1
epwpixieq-1's picture

It is more correctly to be said:

Credit is from Venus, Stocks are from mars ...

Due to the fact that stocks are aroused by credit. If credit is missing/destroyed stocks go ... :)

Although, credit f***s stocks, is the inverse relation here, that somehow justifies the title.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 16:58 | Link to Comment Buggy
Buggy's picture

Every day I get up and hope this is the day, the day the global elite finally push their game to the end.  All I can do is click between cnbc(for a little humor in the day) and ZH and speculate what those shysters are really up to.  Only the likes of the Rothschilds really know.  God knows, by the daily predictions of collapse around here we don't.  Alas, today is not the day where a Rockafellar or Morgan blinks and the game of global chicken finally ends.  This game could go on for years and indeed, it already has been running in its latest form since 1913.  Yes, speeding ever faster toward each other, sealing our fate that it will be a high speed epic global crash. 

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 17:16 | Link to Comment POpatriot
POpatriot's picture

I would like to see that graph updated with the last hour included.  Did the gap close?  Did anyone trade the spread and make bank?

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 19:45 | Link to Comment pappyhlace
pappyhlace's picture

the manipulation in this market is so rampant
massive pumping of the SP/RUT and of course APPL
i've never seen so many 1-2% stick moves up in my life

it feels like HFT's are more like 90% of this market

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