Credit Is From Mars, Stocks Are From Venus, Or Another Reason Why This Market Looks Increasingly Like 2008

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Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:06 | 1669793 Bokkenrijder
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Anyone want to remind us of what happened to gold in 2008 after Lehman Bros...?

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:08 | 1669810 Gubbmint Cheese
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sure - it fell a little.. and then marched up to a recent high over $1900.

 

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:22 | 1669885 TruthInSunshine
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Krugman is from Mars, Bernanke's from Uranus.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:29 | 1669914 CrockettAlmanac.com
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I tried to +1 TIS's post but I can't. Cursor does not turn into a little hand and arrow is unclickable. When my cursor is over arrows on other posts on the page it does turn into a little hand. I've seen this before. What is it?

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:30 | 1669920 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

I've seen that before too and I don't know either but have meant to bring it to ZH's attention.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:46 | 1670012 CrockettAlmanac.com
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And now, page two:

TIS's post is now +2 but it's still unclickable for me.

And now you know the rest of the story.*

 

*With apologies to Paul Harvey

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:08 | 1669812 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Yes. The opportunity of a lifetime.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:29 | 1669916 Temporalist
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Yes a bunch of douchebags buying paper on margin got screwed like the rest of the fiat universe...but people that were buying and holding physical gold and silver are now wiping their asses with FRNs.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:52 | 1670013 Quinvarius
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When the S&P was at 666 gold was at all time highs, and you couldn't buy any anywhere. 

Doing the math based on this chart, puts gold at $485 in 2008 money:

http://nowandfutures.com/images/fed_all_short_term.png

It is already 50% cheaper than post Lehman.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:07 | 1669798 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

'The fact that stocks keep reacting more positively to Greek news, than Greek bonds is scary.'

That's your mistake: asking questions. Just repeat: Greece is fixed.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:31 | 1669923 CrockettAlmanac.com
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Greece always gets the squeaky wheel.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:07 | 1669802 Gubbmint Cheese
Gubbmint Cheese's picture

up up and away.

I'm done with this bullshit - goodbye stocks see you at S&P 650.

 

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:07 | 1669803 Corn1945
Corn1945's picture

Definitely strikes me as similar to 2008. If I remember correctly, there were real signs of stress developing but the market kept rallying. It made no sense at the time either.

We've got a lot of the same. Insolvent banks. Bank CEOs on TV. Rumors all over the place.

The market just doesn't seemt to care about the bad news. At least six months ago, there was some decent news mixed in. Now the decent news is totally gone.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:12 | 1669837 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Yeah bad news all over, NBA lockup is imminent...but hey, NFL is back so lets sit back and look forward to Sunday!

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:12 | 1669839 vote_libertaria...
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In Michael Lewis's book about the 2008 crisis he mentions interviewing hedge fund managers and how they could not understand what was going on.  The worst the news got the more aggressive the buying was.  They found out later it was a combination of hedge fund managers doubling down to catch up and quants chasing momo. 

 

Looks like the same thing to me again.

 

 

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:50 | 1670023 Cdad
Cdad's picture

This is how the big boys play in the New Normal market.  They run prices up and get the algos chasing.  They let the dumb algos take the last leg, which the big boys sell into.  You can see it now, the block selling.  

The secondary benefit is that, now that the algos have marked stocks to "stupid", the institutions have the green light to bear raid without much fear of the market snapping back on them.

Oh...and also...prices don't mean anything anymore.  The computer Pachinko machine market can price things anywhere...and then change them in seconds.  And you won't know what happened until you see the roll up quotes in the after hours, when it will be revealed that massive selling was going on...but most folks could not see it as it was perpetrated through an anlternative exchange.

These last two hours...entirely for the sucker fish.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:08 | 1669807 alien-IQ
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I'm just sitting here, with mouth agape, watching the /ES climb like there is no end in sight and no trouble on earth.

an absolutely amazing display of fantasy over reality.

(I have no positions at the moment on anything)

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:59 | 1670081 LongBalls
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When you can print money out of thin air, in secrecy, and spread rumors via your bought and paid for media outlets, you can string a crisis out for a long time. There is no reason for the markets behaving like this. Stocks up gold down, blah, blah, blah. Currencies being printed like no tomorrow, banks insolvent, economies stagnant, countries on the verge of collapse, and gold goes down? WTH is going on.......!?!?!?!?

No one can figure this crap out except those that create the inside information. I am sitting on the sidelines waiting for more concrete direction. I think after Bernanke's speech we will get more predictable movement.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 16:01 | 1670092 prains
prains's picture

I'm long chinese embedded HFT algo's doing a whack job in the near future.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:08 | 1669814 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

We have had a 42+ handle move in the past 3 days based on nothing but headline algos.  This disconnect between FICC and equities is idiotic.  This smells as a corrdinated effort by the Banks and HF community to drive up the price and then leave investors holding the flaming bag of dog shit. 

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:09 | 1669820 chunga
chunga's picture

Meanwhile...DJIA up 200. Makes more sense trying to predict the gyrations of a Lava Lamp.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:15 | 1669855 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

That is a lot easier as all acting forces on the lava lamp are grounded in reality, so there is a fair amount of predictability.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 18:33 | 1670739 Breaker
Breaker's picture

Well, lava lamp bubbles usually go up. Just like the stock market. But they don't go up faster on bad news like the ES does.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 18:33 | 1670740 Breaker
Breaker's picture

Well, lava lamp bubbles usually go up. Just like the stock market. But they don't go up faster on bad news like the ES does.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:10 | 1669825 Lye
Lye's picture

Market can't tank on "news," because there are so many rumors floating around there's no way to know what to believe.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:11 | 1669828 monopoly
monopoly's picture

And are you aware how different this is than 2008. At that time central banks were selling gold, now they are buying it. And individuals like us from all over the world are stashing gold. It is Not for Sale. Do not care where it goes short term. Totally different now.

I have not had any stocks for a long while outside of miners. And I like what I got. And as posted, just cannot short this market.....yet.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:14 | 1669849 Bokkenrijder
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Governments are also buying up ther own sovereign debt through their proxies: the FED and ECB.

Is that a good investment as well?

p.s. Gold fell about 30% after 2008, so why buy now for $1800 when you can by it for $1200-1300 in a few months?

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 16:31 | 1670211 LongBalls
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Your assuming you can get your hands on it.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:11 | 1669830 jbc77
jbc77's picture

Sometimes Zerohedge can read my mind. I'm looking at the ramp in the markets today and asking myself how this could be happening when a systemic crisis has infected European banks. Are we chalking this up to a broken market or what? Another day in the Twilight Zone.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 16:06 | 1670118 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Given there are no humans trading anymore, this manipulation is hardly surprising.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:11 | 1669833 TradingJoe
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(This "Game" is for MEN not Children!)..said one trader and sold at a loss :)))))!

Yes I agree it is 2008 all over again and yes, trully, "this time it's different" too :)))!

Was cautious enough to roll my puts into next month on that big (last?) down day, i'm good, for nwo at least!

Got to keep trying, some day these suckers will get what they deserve and I want to be there!!!

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:12 | 1669840 nobusiness
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Searching for sanity in an insane world

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:17 | 1669859 runlevel
runlevel's picture

the peter SCHIFF shoaOHHH

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:33 | 1669935 baby_BLYTHE
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Peter Schiff Testifies Before Congressional Jobs Committee 9/13/2011

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPOr1bz5VDc

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 16:41 | 1670236 Dr. Richard Head
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You can tell Schiff definitely challenged the standard thought process of some on the committee.  They will remember his words, but will refuse to act on them.  Facts cannot get in the way of the governmental maching.  They really do need to continue to be breaking our legs, handing us crutches, and then going on TV to show how they helped a man walk. 

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 16:53 | 1670290 Spirit Of Truth
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My thesis is that this is literally the case, i.e., man as a species is insane:

http://www.spiritoftruth.org/Thesis/Intro

Specifically, we suffer from collective manic-depression, i.e., the mad genius syndrome.  One of the most telltale signs of this is the seasonality of mass mood swings.  Note that the "Fall" is typically when their are boughts of collective panics and onsets of major depression.  

http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2011/08/fall-is-approaching.html

This is also typical of bipolar patients in mental hospitals.

So when you comment in jest about the world being insane, I believe a well-grounded scientific study of mass human behavior reveals that, in fact, this is the case, in perfect contradiction to the extraordinary popular delusions in economic "science" where "rational expectations" and "efficient markets" are touted to be the case.  Little do economic theorists realize that they themselves are shining examples of the incredible IRRATIONALITY of man.

JMHO

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:13 | 1669841 ironymonger
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So this couldn't just be the continuation of a short squeeze? I thought that was the point of yesterday's article on open interest.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:14 | 1669845 Belarus
Belarus's picture

All this is is a short covering rally. It's like the fire was lit under the feet of shorts and as it gets hotter and hotter than shorts capitulate one by one. I know Sheep Dog will hate this statement but the time to short will be when the shorts are exhausted, battered, and bruised. That's when this fucker will topple. BTW, the author said he was lightening up on his shorts the other day--good job. 

 

 

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:14 | 1669850 LookingWithAmazement
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I'm looking forward to October 1st. Nice date; all "Armageddon-bankruptcy-eurobonds" talk will be over. Greece will receive money, pay everything and doomprophets and markets will quiet again. No Armageddon by then. Sleep well.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:52 | 1670049 taraxias
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You forgot the "Boring world we live in" troll

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 17:20 | 1670374 POpatriot
POpatriot's picture

It looks like Germany and possibly China is going to transfer their wealth to losing countries. No question it will stave off the collapse for awhile.  This obviously isn't a long term solution and fixes nothing besides giving someone who is broke a new credit card cosigned by a buddy. 

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:17 | 1669856 pschwammerl
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I am similarly dumbfounded. But then I reminded me that some bears are tougher than others, like on the other side.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:33 | 1669931 slyhill
slyhill's picture

and some bear's mothers are tougher than other bear's mothers...

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:17 | 1669861 LookingWithAmazement
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Maybe I will buy euro's, they will rise after all the doom.

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:18 | 1669863 1000yrdstare
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but I am hedging for Armageddon!!!

 

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:18 | 1669866 nachtliche
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Since when is long EVER the right trade according to zerohedge? And since when did the markets react rationally? 

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:18 | 1669868 Belarus
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BTW, I think gold and silver is also showing this is like fall of '08. If europeans are running from banks, they are also running from brokerage accounts, which means GLD and SLV get liquidiated.....to go buy, ahem, Gold and Silver. 

It really is two markets in Gold and Silver. 

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:50 | 1670043 pasttense
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If this were true there would be a massive increase in premiums to buy physical gold and silver. Does anyone see it?

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 15:20 | 1669875 jsavage
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QE3 baby!

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