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Credit Suisse Explains "The Real Issue", And Why There Is Two Months Tops Until France Is In The Bulls Eye

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Credit Suisse's William Porter is strangely laconic and oddly brief in his latest issue of the European Credit Flash titled "The Real Issue":

"It’s all about Spain”, so now we are cutting to the chase. Recapitalization of the banks versus funding the sovereign is of course a semantic issue given the nature of the interplay. But it enables the attempted finesse we describe below.

 

"Portugal cannot rescue Greece, Spain cannot rescue Portugal, Italy cannot  rescue Spain (as is surely about to become all too abundantly clear),  France cannot rescue Italy, but Germany can rescue France.” Or, the credit of the EFSF/ESM, if called upon to provide funds in large size, either calls upon the credit of Germany, or fails; i.e, it seems to us that it probably cannot fund to the extent needed to save the credit of one (and probably  imminently two) countries that had hitherto been considered “too big so save” without joint and several guarantees.

 

The issue can be finessed for a while by addressing the issues as bank issues and recapitalizing the banks by bond transfer. This hides from the  (primary) market and is simply another manifestation of the “Sarko trade” given by the LTRO. That rally lasted four months. Given the market’s adaptive learning behaviour, we suspect that this finesse might last two. The eventual denouement should be flagged by symptoms of the failure of  the credit of EFSF/ESM and/or France.

And there you have it. As evidenced by today's reaction to the bailout, which had a half life of 2 hours, and was a complete failure in 6, the market is learning much, much faster than expected. Which also means that Porter's estimate for the length of time before the next wave of the contagion tsunami strikes somewhere in the middle of the 8th arrondissement is furiously optimistic, but we agree: 2 months tops.

Which is in keeping with the Soros' estimate of T minus 3 months before the Eurozone ends without a major intervention by Germany (which will eventually happen, courtesy of a Berlin-funded DIP loan, but purely on Germany's terms), but also that of Christine Lagarde who just doubled down on Soros' three month estimate as well.

 

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Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:14 | 2516309 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

France, first round: $2T

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:21 | 2516319 veyron
veyron's picture

France, second round: $2Q

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:25 | 2516332 knukles
knukles's picture

La France!  Mais, non.  C'est impossible!
Phhhhht!

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:31 | 2516346 AssFire
AssFire's picture

Paris, busy working at becoming the Detroit of the East.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:48 | 2516380 uno
uno's picture

Has it fallen off the cliff, I have not been there since 2002.  I remember 4 muslim teenagers (2 boys, 2 girls) getting on the subway next to me, when one of the girls drinking a soft drink throws the can out the subway on the next stop, middle of the day, packed subway.  Even growing up in New Orleans and taking public buses everyday I did not see that.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:08 | 2516427 Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

France will be OK, they just elected a Socialist. That will fix everything.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:41 | 2516494 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

CREFLO DOLLAR ~ The new spiritual leader of France...

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:51 | 2516516 Michael
Michael's picture

The market will be taken advantage of in whatever state it is in. Quote me on it.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 22:21 | 2516749 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

free market loves slavery and monopoly.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 22:45 | 2516819 markmotive
markmotive's picture

Capital controls (aka bank holiday aka ATMs shut down) are so much closer than most think. How much cash is in your pocket right now? Enough to survive a week-long bank shutdown?

Reuters reports EU officials are discussing capital controls: http://www.planbeconomics.com/2012/06/11/warning-eurozone-capital-controls-possible/

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 23:27 | 2516920 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

and meanwhile, in the only country showing the way to a better future,  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-07/iceland-court-sentences-ex-byr-...

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 00:05 | 2517004 old naughty
old naughty's picture

week long? Thats all?

 

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 17:17 | 2519583 mkkby
mkkby's picture

Germany will give in and bail out France but "will dictate the terms".

How will they ENFORCE THE TERMS?  Thanks for the money, suckers.  Time to lower the retirement age again.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 02:14 | 2517137 Gief Gold Plox
Gief Gold Plox's picture

Cash or real money? :)

I've started carrying two silver eagles at all times. Not for monetary use, but as conversation starters. It's much easier to educate people about finance if they approach you first. Got half of the department I work for into gold and silver bullion this way. Thanks for the link.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 05:01 | 2517208 Element
Element's picture

Great bumper sticker

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 01:15 | 2517076 Michael
Michael's picture

Lawyers For Ron Paul Civil Rights (Voting Rights) Lawsuit FAQ
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MPt2nlyfmfc&feature=youtu.be

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 01:57 | 2517113 Michael
Michael's picture

I never thought I'd be a party to the killing of so many people throughout the planet, with our drones Mr President?

What really haunts me Mr President, is that group of children we slaughtered in Afghanistan with our drones. What was it, like 17 kids at one time?

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 02:23 | 2517142 Michael
Michael's picture

The United States can now strike anywhere on the planet with a nuclear missile within one hour.

I think that's enough of a deterrent.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 22:39 | 2516798 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Good old creflo, he'll beat them until morale improves or Fitch upgrades them whichever comes first..

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:50 | 2516674 GeorgeHayduke
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So let me get this straight. The capitalist bankers create money out of thin air, have their underlings loan it out to people at 5 to 10 times the amount of money created and then sit back and make money from the interest. This is okay and electing a banker crony would have fixed thing?

The "Socialists" take the money and spread it around, even to folks who sit back like the bankers, then due to acting like a banker (Thorstein Veblen's Theory of the Leisure Class come to mind), they don't make enough money to pay the bankers parasite and this is bad. Plus, those socialists are called lazy, deadbeats, and other such derogatory names.

Anymore the evidence seems to indicate that this system has been built on false premises and ideological myths from the start, is therefore unsustainable, and deserves to collapse. However, many people are still attached to their ideologies and seek to blame those Socialist or Communists or whatever name they want to call them for causing the inevitable.

These old ideas and myths no longer serve us and we need to come up with newer models that work. However these antiquated ideas will die slowly as people won't let go of the old biases and prejudices they have come to love so easily.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 22:26 | 2516737 oldman
oldman's picture

@george

George, you are so in charactar with Abbey's comcept---that I must give you a green, lamenting that I cannot give a thousand.

Carry on, my friend----there is ample material just on this site to change the world.

What you wrote above is so obvious and so true, but the positions of the masses here at ZH are rigid beyond description; they are frozen in time. These dudes are not survivors, for the most part---no flexibility of mind, emotion, or body

Windmills to a man/woman    but good luck   you are fighting the good fight as someone once said    om

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 22:27 | 2516766 MrButtoMcFarty
MrButtoMcFarty's picture

Lazy minds find comfort in ideology.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 23:31 | 2516930 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

Anyone expecting Germany to "save" the Euro-zone "on German terms" is dead wrong: the Wehrmacht, Luftwaffe, and Kriegsmarine are no more. Can't enforce a thing. Not on Spain and, w/in a few days, not even on pitiful Greece. I'm sure the Germans will try...but succeed only in setting off their own debt bomb. Last to go: U.S., unless Israel begins the IranWar before before the Euro-collapse. Then we go first. Or maybe all at once. That...would be beautiful.  In any case, invest in lead.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 02:00 | 2517123 Nukular Freedum
Nukular Freedum's picture

Do I detect a subtle shift in your position on the timing of an Iran war?

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 23:36 | 2516938 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Spain is just getting started. Any attempt to have a common monetary union with both Germany and Spain as co-members is not possible going forward.

Next stop and soon will be Italy.

Then France, and then the U.K., which is only one foot in, anyways, because the only thing it produces, unlike Germany, is banking/financial services, which have a massive net negative value (this is the real reason for the vitriol between Cameron & Merkel; Cameron, or whoever is the British P.M. (aka stooge for the banking masters), will never willingly let any alterations occur that don't include a bailout of the U.K.'s deeply over-leveraged and massively undercapitalized banking and financial sector.

It's epicly hilarious that some so-called economists believe that just because they can spot contagion, they can devise any plan to stop it, especially when the contagian is a resistant virus that is the result of decades and decades of credit/debt (they're the same thing in a fractional reserve banking system where toilet paper fiat is conjured from thin air at no cost) binging economic "expansion."

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 22:28 | 2516769 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

"Man it has been well said think in herds, it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only regain their senses slowly and one by one"

Charles Mackay

Extraordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 22:57 | 2516848 i-dog
i-dog's picture

It's simply bizarre that statists are still looking for a way to patch up the imperialist system of the past 4,000 years ... when it's patently obvious that there are no more fresh fields from which to steal resources to pay for the past profligacy. Columbus will not find a new land to plunder.

Past profligacies were solved by state-funded adventurers pushing the boundary of the known world and finding new conquests. The Spanish discovered the gold and silver hoard of the meso-Americans and simply took it from them at gunpoint and shipped it back home to prolong (for a limited period) their empire. The British discovered they could prolong their empire for a few more decades by growing opium and then shipping it into China at gunpoint in order to keep their own burgeoning pseudo-gentry sipping tea from imported fine chinaware for just a few decades longer. America itself was a means for the Europeans to continue their socialist experiment of the 'enlightenment' [sic ... lol], using America as a producer of food and 'stuff' while Europe devised new ways to do as little as possible while "redistributing" previously acquired wealth.

If the human race is to progress at all through this current mess, then it needs to come to the realisation that there is no undiscovered part of the planet left from which to fund the past profligacy and that each and every community on the planet must find a way to put away the guns and begin to trade between themselves on a "cash" barter basis.

Every adult who claims to care about their children also needs to stop using them as an ATM (through claims of future taxation) to selfishly fund wasteful excesses today.

We are at the end of the line on that past paradigm, folks!

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 06:17 | 2517230 spankfish
spankfish's picture

Hence the need to get off planet.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 18:15 | 2519744 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

"Every adult who claims to care about their children also needs to stop using them as an ATM (through claims of future taxation) to selfishly fund wasteful excesses today."

Amen, but first they need to realize that this is what they and everyone else are in fact doing, and then comprehend why it's bad, and then understand why it has to stop.

In other words, not a snowball's chance in Hell.

They will understand only after it's all over, when it's "only" a matter of history.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 03:11 | 2517172 the tower
the tower's picture

+1000

The ones with antiquated ideas will not give up on them, but they will be left behind the fastest as there's a young generation ready to embrace a new system.

Things will be fine, things will be much better actually, they will just not be the way they were.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:23 | 2516457 withnmeans
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Yes Uno, it has changed "For the Worse". It is dirtier now, it is like the French just gave up. Don't get me wrong, I love to visit France when I can, however the problem lies from illegal immigration. I'm all for people bettering their lives, but they are not, and they don't give a damn about cleanliness or France (And Spain, Italy, and so on).

I have seen a huge change in Europe in the last 10 years, not for the better...

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:28 | 2516466 Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

Ah, yes! The beauty of multi-culturalism.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:53 | 2516523 withnmeans
withnmeans's picture

First time I have seen you on here Clint Liquor, maybe you have been on here for awhile and I just didn't notice.

One thing I did notice is the name, wow I don't usually get amused by a name, I laughed my A$$ off. Good one

+1 for you, my good Sir....

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 22:20 | 2516747 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

You know how a French woman holds her Liquor?

 

 

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 22:42 | 2516804 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

By the ears.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 22:58 | 2516850 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

Ears?  I'd go deaf. 

Though I am loosing the hair on the back of my head..

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 03:49 | 2517185 savagegoose
savagegoose's picture

I THINK HE SHOULD HAVE CAPITALIZEDas in  C LI N T

 or something, its been an age sinc ei was a teenager.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:15 | 2516587 r00t61
r00t61's picture

I have no problem with voluntary multi-culturalism.  I like meeting people from different countries and backgrounds.  Just the other day on a flight home I met a nice couple from New Zealand.  I'd never met any Kiwis before.

Government-sponsored, forced multi-culturalism can go to hell in a handbaset.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 22:02 | 2516702 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

Clint, I need to warn you that, strange as it may seem, coming out against multi-culturalism will cause you via a tortured chain of semantics, to be labled an anti-semetic somehow.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 22:34 | 2516781 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

nobel prize went to someone who proved that humans like multi-culturalism for variety, but only to a certain point. After 25% or so, multi-culturalism becomes a threat and forces fight or flight decisions.

 

white flight anyone?

 

 

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 22:39 | 2516797 Jon Bong Jovi
Jon Bong Jovi's picture

you is so racist brah.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 23:43 | 2516961 CompassionateFascist
CompassionateFascist's picture

There is no "tortured chain of semantics". Organized Jewry means to destroy the nations by open-borders globalization. That is, the multicult. And no more Whites. So the Jews don't get holocausted again. 1900: Whites 30% of world population. Now: 9%, and shrinking. 2100, barring an uprising: an extinct race. 

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:49 | 2516511 uno
uno's picture

a french friend (tall guy around 6-4) told me going to the hi-rise apartments away from the city center the resident Arabs would not allow whitey to use the elevator, no matter how old the lady/man.  It was only to be used by muslims, this was back in the mid-90's, and the French girls were harassed into wearing the idiotic head garb.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:22 | 2516601 withnmeans
withnmeans's picture

I understand completely, I have experienced this in Southern France as well. I think this is more of an issue then anybody really knows if they had ever been to Europe. 

The French are to a boiling point on this issue, this will be dealt with if there is a financial default. Fingers will be pointed, names will be called, something will happen.

I was back to Europe last summer, stayed with friends, you could tell things were getting tense in Europe "both financially and from an immigrant stand point".

Actually speaking from being there "Italy looked far worse off then any of them". Infrastructure was terrible, people were very down, just lac-luster overall. I am amazed they "Italians" have made it this far.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 22:07 | 2516717 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

re. I am amazed they "Italians" have made it this far.

Simple - Euro 2012!!

http://www.footytube.com/video/spain-italy-jun10-120900?ref=hp_ozeit_mem

 

Bread and Circus!!  Bread and Circus!! 

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:10 | 2516531 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

Damn.  I thought image was a big deal for the French (a classmate in Engineering school from Paris gave me this impression emphatically and I definitely remember the sense of pride taken maintaining Paris the time I was there, briefly and back in 98').   If the green street cleaning crews are not still doing their finest keeping those streets spiffy, like they did when I was there, noticeably addressing the apparent late night tradition of relieving oneself on the side of a building and collection of the rubbish early each morning: then, they are doomed. 

I can understand budget constraints letting the City of Lights fester, but not the people. 

 

 

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 23:18 | 2516891 Captain Planet
Captain Planet's picture

I saw similar aggression amongst the youth while in Paris this summer, at the techno parade no less. A party atmosphere, and guys were lit up ready for battle.

A class divide was truly palpable in Paris, and the poor where not as invisible as here in the states.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 00:42 | 2517040 Uchtdorf
Uchtdorf's picture

On the other hand, I visited Istanbul with my wife (I am pale white Anglo and she is native Japanese) last summer. We were treated well by everyone in old Byzantium even in the areas where tourists normally don't venture. We went everywhere around the city and were helped by total strangers who thought we just might need directions. I've lived in Tokyo for 5 years, visited Shanghai, NY, Hong Kong, Singapore, Los Angeles (lived there too), Mexico City. Istanbul was the most pleasant of them all. Have to be careful when painting with a broad brush.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 06:40 | 2517241 neidermeyer
neidermeyer's picture

UNO , you'll just adore the "no go" zones that have popped up all over France in the last few years ... whenever you hear about "youths" rioting in the news ,, you can bet your last $20 gold piece it was in one of these Sharia compliant zones that the polizei refuse to enter. http://technorati.com/politics/article/no-go-zones-for-non-muslims/

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:41 | 2516645 CURWAR2012
CURWAR2012's picture

Paris no es Uganda, es De'troit

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:12 | 2516430 tiger
tiger's picture

"Impossible n'est pas français"  

Napoléon Bonaparte

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 05:44 | 2517223 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

We are running out of numbers!

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:34 | 2516352 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

If it gets to this scenario, Germany leaves EZ.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:00 | 2516412 ChrisFromMorningside
ChrisFromMorningside's picture

... Then it is the U.K. and Japan's turn. That is when the shit will really hit the fan.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:07 | 2516425 ATM
ATM's picture

If they leave they are fucked for sure. All those bonds they own will be paid back in worthless paper which was the very reason the Euro was instituted in the first oplace - to stop the defaulting of the south on all those deutchmarks the Germans were so willing to lend to buy their shit.

Now they lend Euros with the hope that they can extract real value from the debtors. Leaving the EZ is self defeating. They will not do it.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:47 | 2516662 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Why not? If they leave they are fucked. If they stay.....they are fucked.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:28 | 2516465 Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

Failout.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:18 | 2516312 Sockeye
Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:22 | 2516323 Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

Not sure what you mean by that.

I would say that it's bullshit to say that Germany wants to dominate France or anyone else. It's just not true. The Euro was a French initiative to begin with.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:26 | 2516335 knukles
knukles's picture

So was the Maginot Line.
Like a unfenced pool, an attractive nuisance.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:39 | 2516635 brooklynlou
brooklynlou's picture

Know what "Belgium" means in German?

Speedbump

Just sayin ...

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 22:36 | 2516793 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

Do you know why the streets of Paris are lined with trees?

So the German army can march in the shade.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 00:44 | 2517043 Uchtdorf
Uchtdorf's picture

Saw an advertisement for WWII Italian rifles in Shotgun News. "Good condition, only dropped once."

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:05 | 2516421 brooklynlou
brooklynlou's picture

Germany not want to dominate ? Not dominate France ? Hahahaha. Merkels got a red choke ball with Hollandes name on it

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:10 | 2516429 Confused
Confused's picture

Can you blame them? Or should Germany raise its retirement age from 67, while the French continue to lower it. 

Get a grip. 

 

 

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:50 | 2516672 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Or while the Greeks lower theirs?

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:18 | 2516314 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Neither Soros or Lagarde are trustworthy. Both seem to want the EURO to fall as the catalyst to causing the U.S. to fall.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:27 | 2516336 knukles
knukles's picture

From Chaos Order.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:43 | 2516371 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Indeed.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:21 | 2516451 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Out of chaos comes control

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:44 | 2516499 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

keep going... it ain't finished yet...

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:01 | 2516546 brooklynlou
brooklynlou's picture

And out of Control comes Maxwell smart, Agent 99 and a shoe phone ....

Smart: At the moment, all the countries of Europe are about to fund a trillion dollar bailout plan, enact deposit insurance and renegotiate the fiscal union. Would you believe it?

Mr Big: I find that hard to believe Agent Smart.

Smart: Hmmm . . . Would you believe a 500 billion dollar loan from Germany and France upping its retirement age?

Mr Big: I don't think so.

Smart: How about an angry Spanish midget and two penguins with a credit card?

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:18 | 2516594 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

well played larrabee...

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 01:40 | 2517105 hidingfromhelis
hidingfromhelis's picture

Smart: How about an angry Spanish midget and two penguins with a credit card?

Well, now the SEC is interested.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:04 | 2516555 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

True "indeed."

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 00:47 | 2517048 Uchtdorf
Uchtdorf's picture

Never let a good crisis go to waste.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:21 | 2516317 kito
kito's picture

tyler, why do we do we give credence to bank analysts who are part of the doomed keynsian trained/govt sponsored short sighted lemming groupthink herd of know nothings? these bank analysts are worthless, a bane on the worlds existence, and shouldnt be honored with print, especially by zh............

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:23 | 2516326 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Because they influence the opinions of those who allocate trillions in capital.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:25 | 2516333 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

It seems to me they are just there to reinforce the opinions of those who allocate trillions in capital.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:28 | 2516339 knukles
knukles's picture

Do people wish information or affirmation?

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:31 | 2516345 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I spoke to a guy today who had all the problems of th world buttoned down as well as anyone on this site. He is in his late 50's and does pretty well for himself. He ended the conversation with "I'm guessing we have maybe another 20 years before this gets really serious". I think peoplewant to think this is another generation's problem.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:12 | 2516432 Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

They are hoping it holds together long enough for them to die. Unfortunately, it will not.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:15 | 2516440 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

You are correct. I am 35 and I am hoping it crashes soon enough that I can still start over and make something of myself.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:23 | 2516458 Clint Liquor
Clint Liquor's picture

You'll be fine, because you already have a big head start. 90% of your generation will spend all their time looking backwards, wasting their time and energy trying to relive the past. It will be the future that holds all the opportunity for those who can wrap their brain around what happened and why.

 

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:27 | 2516462 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Thanks. Man I hope you are right.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:47 | 2516505 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Some days I hope you are right... Then again, some days I wish it was another generations problem...

It's become the all consuming conundrum of the life of francis_sawyer...

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:58 | 2516540 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Unfortunately that is not your call to make. It will be made for you. I sincerely hope when it gets made that people still have the ability to pool resources and intelligence and start anew without turning into a bunch of animals. As pessimistic as I am I am an optomist with that.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:16 | 2516588 EatersOfTheFed
EatersOfTheFed's picture

Lighten up Francis. 

 

Had to say it. Hehehe.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:21 | 2516600 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Very nice! It was so obvious, why didn't I think of it?

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:24 | 2516609 IndicaTive
IndicaTive's picture

francis_sawyer, Agreed and feel the same. I wish I had the rest of my life to prepare my kids physically for the big fucking mess. Mentally, we're almost good to go. I hope.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:49 | 2516512 sschu
sschu's picture

 It will be the future that holds all the opportunity for those who can wrap their brain around what happened and why.

Excellent advise and true for anyone of any age.  Isn't there a saying about fighting the last war not the next one?  The French specialize in this thought process.

sschu

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:47 | 2516661 flacon
flacon's picture

"I've got the brains, you've got the brawn. Let's make lots of money" ~ Neil Tennant, Pet Shop Boys

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 22:45 | 2516818 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

'I couldn’t live with myself any longer. And in this a question arose without an answer: who is the ‘I’ that cannot live with the self? What is the self? I felt drawn into a void! I didn’t know at the time that what really happened was the mind-made self, with its heaviness, its problems, that lives between the unsatisfying past and the fearful future, collapsed. It dissolved. The next morning I woke up and everything was so peaceful. The peace was there because there was no self. Just a sense of presence or “beingness,” just observing and watching.'[

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eckhart_Tolle

 

The Power of Now

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 23:18 | 2516894 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

past is mere memory,

the future imagined,

all power resides in the present moment.

all else is distraction.

but, of course, you know this - thanks Bringing It.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 01:34 | 2520538 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

I wish we could imagine a better ending.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:44 | 2516497 kito
kito's picture

@fonzanoon  right on brotha, right on............

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:46 | 2516504 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Same to you Kito. All the best. I came on here knowing jack shit. You are one of many I caught on to right away. I know know jack somewhat shit.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:49 | 2516510 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

When the reset happens I am going to drop a silver eagle on spelling/grammer lessons.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:58 | 2516541 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Good one. It's "grammar", by the way. That's a freebie.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:00 | 2516543 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Fuckin spell check ruined me....I stopped caring.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:02 | 2516548 knukles
knukles's picture

You'd do well as a regulator.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:08 | 2516568 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Fonzannoon: You wait and see, Mr. Knuckles. I *will* be mayor! I'll be the most powerful man in Hill Valley, and I'm gonna clean up this town. 
Knuckles Good. You can start by sweeping the floor.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:15 | 2516586 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

You can say that again.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 00:51 | 2517054 Uchtdorf
Uchtdorf's picture

That was sheer genius.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:09 | 2516569 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Fonzannoon: You wait and see, Mr. Knuckles. I *will* be mayor! I'll be the most powerful man in Hill Valley, and I'm gonna clean up this town. 
Knuckles Good. You can start by sweeping the floor.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:10 | 2516571 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

I'm lucky, if you want to call it that. Always had a knack for spelling. I write fiction, as a hobby, so vocabulary is also an interest of mine. I guess I'm a language nerd. Funny thing, I sucked at grammar in school but picked it up when I started writing with hopes of one day being published. Plus, people think you're smart if you use fancy words and know how to spell them. LOfuckinL.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:18 | 2516596 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

In my limited defense I have a 2 yr old that sometimes likes to run up and throw shit at me while I am in deep thought on here, It makes for a lot of errors. But you nailed me with grammar. I can't blame a flying dora the explorer doll for that.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:30 | 2516616 knukles
knukles's picture

Deep and serious truth, that.
But remember, you can always blame that deep and twisted sexual perversion you try with the wife on a Flying Dora the Explorer, should she ask.....

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:51 | 2516517 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

same here Kito...

Last week I made a snarky comment basically saying WTF cares about what some whack JPM 'analyst' said about something & got poleaxed by the committee basically saying it was 'TRADEABLE' info worth 'TRILLIONS'...

~~~

TRILLIONS of what?

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:30 | 2516344 Newsboy
Newsboy's picture

Gotta' analyze the people you don't like, as well as the ones you do like. This isn't (quite) a religion.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:53 | 2516399 RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

Truer words have never been said. First thing my first PM taught me was to talk to the people that disagree with you first and most often.

One of the things anti-short seller mgmt teams need to learn. Talk to the shorts. Maybe you will learn about issues you hadnt thought of, maybe you'll find small changes that will make you more shareholder friendly and MAYBE you convert them. They are the only people you will talk to that need to buy your stock.

Id love to see more posts about why Im wrong. Right now the only credible alternative to my deflationary debt default scernario is the extrnd/pretend and cntl-p scenarios. Id love to see the everythings ok scenario.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:59 | 2516410 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

if you want to see the everything's okay scenario turn on CNBC at any point. My favorite is the 2pm hour where the numbnutz constantly wave the american flag and is pitching you the american dream at such a fevered pitch it makes you a bit nervous. I don't agree with your deflationary scenario but  think you really believe in it. I think it's smart to talk to those who disagree with you but when you encounter a full blown liar who is wearing their bullshit all over their face you can trust in yourself and disregard them completely.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:24 | 2516459 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

The world of journalism has pivoted around integrity and invented the phrase "professionalism in journalism", which is euphemism for "our sponsors have to sell product or we can't report anything at all".

Those sponsors are in business to sell their products and depressed people WILL NOT BUY ANYTHING.  So they have informed media outlets that the purpose of advertising is to sell product, not pay their salaries and if they want to continue to earn those salaries, they had better keep the audience happy and in a mood to buy.

The gold peddlers are the aberration.  They apparently have nowhere else to go.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 22:56 | 2516846 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

Yes Crash, sponsors want to sell stuff, but IMO, it's much more sinister.

Have you ever heard of the Spanish Inquisition?  I mean Tavistock Institute?

"The Tavistock of Human Relations is the nerve center for the global manipulation of human Consiousness".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZG0b02zCdg

Founded in 1921 by Sigmund Freud among others, located in the City.

Mass Media has been poison for a long time.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 05:16 | 2517215 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Don't forget Granddad: Edward Bernays.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 01:37 | 2520543 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

Freud's cousin who went to the States.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 22:07 | 2516718 bagehot99
bagehot99's picture

CNBC are forced to wave the flag - otherwise they're analyzing a meaningless board game, and that won't do. Ctrl P is coming, like it or lump it.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:14 | 2516437 ATM
ATM's picture

Deflationary default will never be allowed to happen. It will be CNTL-P to infinity exactly because they own the P. Default is easy to pin blame. Inflation is a boogeyman not easily pinned on anyone. One thing you should remember is these fucks who have taken us down this road are skilled at avoiding blame, deflecting and creating an enemy to which they can point the finger. 

They will print because it's the easiest way to extend and pretend and this is all a fairytale now.

 

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:27 | 2516463 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

They will do ANYTHING to keep the wheels turning, but printing is not necessarily that anything.  Credit rating agencies are a constraint.  They have to borrow and if the rate spikes, they have solved nothing with their printing.

An easier solution is killing people, selectively and even somewhat indiscriminately.  Much smoother than printing, especially if you villify the targets first.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:30 | 2516470 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

The ratings agencies are complicit (minus egan).

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:04 | 2516549 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

The truth will become obvious without the help of the ratings agencies. The magnitude of the toxic debt will overwhelm the printers temporarily, and we'll have a deflationary crash. After that, we'll get the hyperinflation.

And of course Crash is right. There will be war.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:29 | 2516614 FiatFobia
FiatFobia's picture

Agree WonderDawg (UGA?).   Can't extinguish the quadrillions of debt without deflation first.   THEN, major inflation when the fiat has to be deployed into real assets.

 

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:52 | 2516681 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

UGA indeed. Good eye.

That's my scenario as well. The printer will quiver like Bernanke's lips under the weight of quadrillions. They won't be able to create 1's and 0's fast enough.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 05:15 | 2517214 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

So that's why the SCOAMF ordered all those drones!

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 01:07 | 2517069 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Who would ever think of being disagreeable with the Tylers' Durden? On his own site no less...

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 23:08 | 2516872 Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

Keep your friends close, and your enemies closer?

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:48 | 2516379 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

One man's "know nothing" is another man's "first go to source." Hard to sort all that out. ZH tries to represent different perspectives here. Like they say in AA, take what works, leave the rest. Each of us is different. I would not want the job of what to cull and what not to cull. Should they not talk about Bernanke either?

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:06 | 2516423 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

not sure that's the correct answer TD but for all your brilliant work i'll let that one pass without my usual acid-attack!

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:04 | 2516554 knukles
knukles's picture

+ Kudos

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:05 | 2516558 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Knuksie! MsC!

Nine years last Wednesday. Still getting better.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:08 | 2516565 knukles
knukles's picture

Happy B-day, my man.
Serious congrats.

The Promises just never cease to amaze, eh?

And sounds like another congrats keep comin' back's in order.
Couldn't be better.

:)

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:14 | 2516581 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Thanks, dude. It's amazing. Total miracle. I dig it. Plus, I get to play in this market with a clear head. I can't imagine trying to trade if I was drinking. I'd come out of a blackout broke and getting margin calls. It's hard enough to make money as it is, but I'm a gambler and it's a challenge.

Thanks again, my friend. Keep on keeping on.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:40 | 2516639 knukles
knukles's picture

Tee he-eh...

Ah, the clarity factor.  For the life of me, I cannot fathom, nor shall I ever, whether the normies already possess it at this level or if it is something "acquired". 
I have to be very careful assuming that something so special might be by virtue simply of the what it was like, what happened and what it's like now.
To paraphrase Tyler (Chapter 16): We  are not a beautiful and unique snowflakes.

Ah, tis what it tis'
(For some reason thinking of Monty Python with that line.)

Blessings be upon you, Dawg

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:57 | 2516689 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

I don't think anyone possesses clarity unless they seek it out. Fortunately for us, we have a roadmap. People that don't have a roadmap stay in the dark. Some normies might have a roadmap of their own, but most don't; they aren't even aware that they need one. People around here refer to them as "sheeple", but I prefer not to use that derogatory term. They are merely human. We have to strive to rise above our "humaness", and recognizing your shortcomings is the first step in overcoming.

And those are my words of wisdom for the day LOfuckinL

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 23:34 | 2516940 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

I think you're right Dawg, that no one possesses clarity unless they seek it out.  they have to realise it's missing, acknowledge the lack of clarity, then desire to have it in their lives/mind before it can be known.

clarity, for me, is the absence of mind-clutter, which seems to be accumulating at high speed now, so much "information" or things to know in order to function with other clutter-types. . . clarity seems to need less in a more world.

keepin it simple, keepin' it real - grats on your nine!

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 00:02 | 2517000 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Thank you, CA. I'm grateful for the chance to live it right so I'm trying to make the best of it.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 05:06 | 2517212 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Hmmm, happy birthday from a friend of Bill's, if that b'day is what I think it is.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 22:07 | 2516715 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

If no one ring the bell how will you get the dogs to salivate?

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:23 | 2516322 Newsboy
Newsboy's picture

Will everything please impact the fan before late August, so there can be some desperate activity at the Republican National Convention, to jostle the status-quo?

 

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:49 | 2516385 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

They are hopeless. 

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 23:31 | 2516929 Newsboy
Newsboy's picture

The Ron Paul delegates have a sense of history. they are powered directly by the Zeitgeist. They are like political airborn rangers behind enemy lines.

I didn't say that everything would make sense, that the blind would see, or that pigs would sing, but I would so like to see this mass perception get shaken, THEN stirred. "Jostle the status-quo" is a good start...

I'm sort of an impatient student of history. I feel like the sooner the change starts to run like a shockwave through human perceptions, the less ugly and violent it has to eventually become. Sadly, paradigm shift is already really well understood by our lords and masters. They don't want it at all. They'd prefer to delay it as long as they possibly can, at whatever cost to the herd, if the herd is going to stampede, anyway.

Sigh...

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 23:47 | 2516977 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Ron needs another team AND that will fail. Repugs are lost in bullshit (as are dems). Can't fall back on what is corrupt, they are both corrupt.

We actually see things the same, I am just not as optimistic. 

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 01:41 | 2520555 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

MsCreant - speaking of not optomistic - Rand/ Ron Sell out!?!  The PTB must have very impressive greeters.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:23 | 2516325 Mordan I
Mordan I's picture

I saw a group ... I think. Are we sure?

bitch sez .. somethink. sliver.

 

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:40 | 2516327 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Any rational look at French rail investments would suggest they are preparing for a Franc return  - and the longer they wait the more capacity these investmemts have to absorb the flow and therefore the Franc will devalue less the longer they can extract capital from the periphery.

 

People just don’t seem to understand whats happening in France - from a energy perspective Lyon is becoming a walled city.

http://www.sytral.fr (go to the Projects window)

With villages 40 Km from the citadel wishing to enter the defensive curtain.(not covered in the above projects)

Google :
Nord Isère | Tignieu-Jameyzieu Tram Lyon-Cremieu : le collectif …

fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crémieu

Also a very long tram train line in the works using a old line (not covered above)
Google :Nord Isere Tram train Lyon-Trévoux : feu vert en vue d’un lancement en 2017

fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ligne_de_Lyon-Croix-Rousse_à_Trévoux

Its hard to get your head around the scale of Lyons public transport investments …. but it is also very smart - using the existing infrastructure to the max.

fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolleybuses_in_Lyon
fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tram-train_de_l’Ouest_lyonnais

 

As for their regional rail policey....... its all about getting future agricultural stuff to market on rail.

The post crisis western France regional rail policey did not start with a kiss…. it started with a Cognac………

fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ligne_de_Beillant_à_Angoulême

fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gare_de_Cognac

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4d6sOD5rS5Y
Goggle : La modernisation de la ligne coûtera 65 M€ - SudOuest.f

La Rochelle - the Atlantic terminus of this line handles Grain exports , …….. this rail terminal has declined since the late 80s (EMU false price signal ?) due to truck competition.

They now wish to service their agricultural heartlands with rail….. the new signalling will be able to handle the mixed traffic of the line or enable a higher number of passenger railcars.

Last year on the Sarlat line…………..another sub ~1000 passengera day line with rail freight potential.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3iHWKHdQt6w

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:51 | 2516394 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Interesting. Looks like someone in charge knows about "The Long Emergency."

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 20:23 | 2516441 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Yeah RFF capital budget will be about 3.4 BILLION this year - but that normally only covers about 10 -20 % of the total cost of these things., with the local and state covering the remaining ,SNCF = rolling stock etc etc etc

www.rff.fr  ( go to regions select)

It also does not cover much of the Paris basins rail operations(RER) , all of the trams and metros , Corsica and the few private trains such as the Nice to Digne 1 Metre line.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTO-csAXNew     (opening in a couple of weeks)

 

And who could forget the biggest EIB loan of all time !!!


www.eib.org/attachments/press/lgv-sud-europe-atlantique-en.pdf

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 21:39 | 2516625 anonnn
anonnn's picture

Anecdote: 1984 came up thru Deigne to Lyon, took my first TGV 140+ mph [not kms] into Paris. All TGV reservations handled in few minutes on computer monitors. Totally smooth A-to-B, no distractions. In 1984.

Up to that point, had not heard of TGV, and it was already a running system. Dwarfed all the tourist PR from Japan about their "superfast Bullet Train". Awesome, nearly 30 years ago. Their standard SNCF rail even pushed 120 mph [not kms] back then.

Follow "Alan" at TheOilDrum.com  website who acknowledges France's foresight in converting to efficient electric and diesel-electric, while currently expanding efficient rail/tramlines into all cities of medium population.

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:25 | 2516329 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

Hey Germany, what's that on your shirt? (They look down) You flink their nose !   Ireland

Hey Germany, what's that on your shirt? (They look down) You flink their nose ! Greece

Hey Germany, what's that on your shirt? (They look down) You flink their nose ! Portugal

Hey Germany, what's that on your shirt? (They look down) You flink their nose ! Italy......

Mon, 06/11/2012 - 19:41 | 2516368 Winston Smith 2009
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