Credit Suisse Goes For Broke: Predicts End Of Euro, Escalating Bank Runs On "Strongest European Banks"

Tyler Durden's picture

Just because Credit Suisse bankers are people too (even if 1% people, but still people), and just because they know too damn well that "no ECB intervention" means "no bonus", and very likely "no job", they go for broke and join Deutsche Bank, JPM, RBS, and everyone else (but, again, not Goldman), in predicting the end of Europe unless Draghi does his rightful duty and remembers that without banker support he will also be lining up at the jobless claims office very soon. Of course, being a Goldman boy, Draghi will only do what Lloyd tells him to. Either way, here is Credit Suisse's rejoinder to the global Mutual Assured Destruction tragicomedy, which now makes Honk (as Lagarde calls him) Paulson's overtures to congress seem like amateur hour. "We seem to have entered the last days of the euro as we currently know it. That doesn’t make a break-up very likely, but it does mean some extraordinary things will almost certainly need to happen – probably by mid-January – to prevent the progressive closure of all the euro zone sovereign bond markets, potentially accompanied by escalating runs on even the strongest banks. That may sound overdramatic, but it reflects the inexorable logic of investors realizing that – as things currently stand – they simply cannot be sure what exactly they are holding or buying in the euro zone sovereign bond markets...One paradox is that pressure on Italian and Spanish bond yields may get quite a lot worse even as their new governments start to deliver reforms – 10-year yields spiking above 9% for a short period is not something one could rule out. For that matter, it’s quite possible that we will see French yields above 5%, and even Bund yields rise during this critical fiscal union debate." Of course, the explicit message is: help us ECB-Wan Kenobi, you are our only hope. The implicit one is: do it, or we pull the trigger and blow it all up to hell.

Full note:

The “Last Days” of the Euro

 

We seem to have entered the last days of the euro as we currently know it. That doesn’t make a break-up very likely, but it does mean some extraordinary things will almost certainly need to happen – probably by mid-January – to prevent the progressive closure of all the euro zone sovereign bond markets, potentially accompanied by escalating runs on even the strongest banks.

 

That may sound overdramatic, but it reflects the inexorable logic of investors realizing that – as things currently stand – they simply cannot be sure what exactly they are holding or buying in the euro zone sovereign bond markets.

 

In the short run, this cannot be fixed by the ECB or by new governments in Greece, Italy or Spain: it’s about markets needing credible signals on the shape of fiscal and political union long before final treaty changes can take place. We suspect this spells the death of “muddle-through” as market pressures effectively force France and Germany to strike a momentous deal on fiscal union much sooner than currently seems possible, or than either would like. Then and only then do we think the ECB will agree to provide the bridge finance needed to prevent systemic collapse.

 

We think the debate on fiscal union will really heat up from this week when the Commission publishes a new paper on three different options for mutually guaranteed “Eurobonds”, continue at the summit on 9 December and through a key speech by President Sarkozy to the French nation scheduled for the 20th anniversary of the Maastricht Treaty (11 December).

 

While these discussions may give some short-term relief to markets, it seems likely that the process of reaching agreement will involve some high stakes brinkmanship and market turmoil in subsequent weeks. (Not unlike the US debt ceiling debate this summer, or the messy passage of TARP in 2008.)

 

One paradox is that pressure on Italian and Spanish bond yields may get quite a lot worse even as their new governments start to deliver reforms – 10-year yields spiking above 9% for a short period is not something one could rule out. For that matter, it’s quite possible that we will see French yields above 5%, and even Bund yields rise during this critical fiscal union debate.

 

Moreover, this could happen even as the ECB moves more aggressively to lower rates and introduce extra measures to provide banks with longer-term funding. And US bond yields may fall – or at least not rise – despite improving US growth data through end-year. Equally, global equity markets and world wealth could follow a more muted version of their early Q1:2009 sell-off until the political brinkmanship is resolved – see exhibits below.

 

In short, the fate of the euro is about to be decided. And the pressure for the necessary political breakthroughs will likely come from investors seeking to protect themselves from the utterly catastrophic consequences of a break-up – a scenario that their own fears should ultimately help to prevent!

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Jim in MN's picture

Peep, peep!  Pay me, pay me!

Let these babies starve in the nest.  Parasites.

MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

This is exactly the kind of doomer analysis you would expect from a Swiss bank. Credit Suisse are just resentful that Switzerland never got around to joining the Euro and consequently missed out on top economic guidance from some of Europe's smartest and most experienced politicians. Switzerland had a chance to be part of something big, and they blew it.

Jim in MN's picture

LOL, I appreciate the sarc.  This is sarcasm, right?

Esso's picture

I have a younger sister that has Down's Syndrome, and is severely and profoundly mentally retarded and handicapped. She never had a choice in the matter.

Pretending to be retarded on the internet to get a rise out of people isn't cute or entertaining, it's tragic. You need to get a fucking life.

LFMayor's picture

Almost every damn thread he posts on he lays out a contrarian post, in case you haven't noticed.  He's being sarcastic and the funny part of it is the weak minded assholes that go into foaming rages because of it.  If you don't find it funny, that's just as fine as if you do.  I don't think he gives a rats ass.

BTW, that's a pretty fucking weak stretch, tying your sister's misfortune and inability to write to some guys attempt at smarm.  Thank you so much for sharing your familial tragedy with the world.  You strike me as one of those sensitive types who had to parade their greater misfortune at some brinkmanship support group, light some candles in rememberance, wallow in your misery because it defines you.  Because it's all about you, you know.  Remember, whoever drags the biggest cross up the hill to Golgotha wins!

giddy's picture

...ummm...  what's the difference between using this example of profound prejudice and misfortune or using any of form of racial or social prejudice or misfortune to stop commentary?  Best way to stop freedom of speech is to accuse an individual of insensitivity to someones tribal or group identity.  Notice the identification of the group which is defined as "people with disabilities" rather than simply a sister.  Interesting how it always works this way.         

malek's picture

There is a difference between being snarky, and being just plain annoying.

Tyler's post made me laugh hard twice, MDB is just plain stupid (ironic meant or not).

in-Credible Banker's picture

Dude - calm down.  It is just satire.  WTF?!?!?!?

I have a handicapped CHILD and am actually resentful you would compare MDB's posts to such a situation.  Are you nuts??   

Ahmeexnal's picture

Didn't know Blythe had an older brother.

Jim in MN's picture

LOL, besides, where is Davos again?  Not sure what 'advice' the Swissies are missing here....

The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

A Swiss bank these days is like Swiss cheese.    Tasty but still full of holes.

Ghordius's picture

nah, Credit Suisse is not Swiss, it's First Boston Bank with a cheesy wrapper...

just look at the names of the analysts...

bentaxle's picture

And any banker is 90% wind, 10% criminal?

in-Credible Banker's picture

MDB...........you are one funny MOFO.  Keep em coming!

 

LOL!!!!

 

 

MolotovCockhead's picture

Verbal diarrhea.............Coming from a milliondollarAnus!

Shocker's picture

There is more and more talk of the Euro collapsing. This can't end well

Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Hopefully they can get the 'droid programmed with the appropriate message

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmVr0Hs0UaI

i-dog's picture

 

"do it, or we pull the trigger and blow it all up to hell."

This is the message I'd like to send them:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PyT4H11maeM

LawsofPhysics's picture

Certainly not when most of the paper-pushing fucknuts and American financials book their "profits" from the shell game in Euros.

 

hedge accordingly.

Shocker's picture

Exactly, The affects will be felt everywhere. Companies/ Banks/ Market everyone has exposure to the euro.

Wonder what addition shocks it will have to our fragile economy

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

.

The Limerick King's picture

 

 

The message is clear: "Print or Die"

Now surely these Banksters don't lie

Our markets they busted

Now they want to be trusted

If this wasn't so funny I'd cry!

SWRichmond's picture

Here's what I want to know: the Swiss went "all in" with their peg to the Euro.  If the Euro blows up, what happens next?  Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm?

swiss chick's picture

Thats a really good question! no one seems to know or care...

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Indeed, a good question.  + 1 to you both.

i-dog's picture

If they're smart, they'd remove the peg.

So they'll probably keep the peg.

(If ... errm, sorry, when ... the Globalists succeed in crashing the global financial system, they will no longer need a separate money-laundering operation in Switzerland. The Swiss are being sold down the river with the rest of us.)

mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

All eyes are on Merkel.  I'd wager the big banks have dartboards with her face on 'em.  I wonder what the "let the ECB print" bribes being thrown her way look like these days.

GeneMarchbanks's picture

It's not just Merkel, see below.

mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Thx.  Some irony here with the German's position in this currency world war, no?

GeneMarchbanks's picture

mk,

German psyche is a tricky thing. As I've said all along the fear factor in 'printing' €'s is a big unknown. Analysis has its limits. What would be an epic irony, IMHO, is if the German's use all this world-wide anti-Goldman sentiment and throw a massive monkey wrench into the banking complex.

GeneMarchbanks's picture

'Such determination could only be the product of the deep institutional memory the ECB has inherited from its ideological parent, the German Bundesbank. In their shared orthodoxy, printing money to buy government debt is the first step down a slippery slope that ends in hyperinflation -- a scourge that, between the two world wars, combined with punitive reparations to undermine the Weimar Republic and make way for the rise of Nazism. As German Economy Minister Philipp Roesler recently put it, it is in Germans’ “genetic code” to avoid printing money: “You can’t make the mistake of giving in to this pressure. You’ll never get out of it, and that would be the end.”'

I also invite you warmly to read the comments section for such brilliant analysis as:

'Jasenka Petrujkic in reply to PERALTA STONES 1 hour ago That is impossible. A currency, whether it is backed by promise of gold or grain, reflects human need to  exchange with other humans. It receives its intrinsic value from our socialness, our connectedness. You may believe that each and every one of us is an individual, independent of all others, but nobody, and especially not ultra rich, lives off their own production.' Just... wow.
Reptil's picture

The article is wrong on 4 counts:

First, Germany was actually doing quite well, after a rough time, dealing with the WW1 aftermath. It was making pacts with Poland etc, but then "someone" decided to kill Rathenau, who was the brains behind this recovery. (who benefits?)
Then, after stopping monetising debt the country recovered fairly quickly which is completely missed in this article. That ended the hyperinflation, because trust was restored, not refusal to allow defaults! It's telling that most do not know the difference between inflation and hyperinflation. It's the corruption that undermined the euro. NONE of the rules were abided. If they'd print, this would not be solved: The euro would lose trust, and there'd be the biggest gold/silver rush in modern history.

Thirdly, no, austerity is not part of Keynes' ideas, but neither is ridiculous leverage, that has now resulted in insolvency. THAT is the problem. Which can only be solved, as the main article points out, by defaults. Otherwise everything will be dragged into the hole. IT'S JUST TOO BIG A HOLE TO PAPER OVER. Arguably, that's a goal for some: Everyone into the hole except for themselves. And some sheeple buy that; because they think "money will be replaced soon". (yeah with RFID chips)

Fourthly, the US economy after the second world war needed a boost, the Marshall plan was part of this buildup of civil economy, production carried it along, for quite a while. Reparations to be paid by Germany were halted, as long as Germany was not united. This allowed a new economy to be built, while debt, created by politicians (when Germany was defeated a second time) was suspended by those same politicians. NONE of this is possible to accomplish on short notice, in the present financial structure.  The proposed (?) "new Marshall plan" would be built on...... more debt, more payments, and over a longer period. Instead of pointing at the "Wirtschaftswunder", one should point at Japan's "lost decade", because that, EXACTLY that, will happen, if Germany (the last one standing) succumbs to the bankers too. MORE debt in public accounts, no fresh new start, and thus.. more austerity. With two differences. Japan has eaten most of it's own debt with a trade surplus and it's population STILL puts it's trust in feodal hierarchy structures. Europeans lost that, a couple of centuries ago.

edited for clarity.

 

Antifederalist's picture

Credit Suisse:  europe is falling apart.  Gee,  ya think....

deepsouthdoug's picture

Is it 'Credit Suisse goes for broke', or Credit Suisse goes TO broke?

Jim in MN's picture

I wonder what Germany will do with France's ultra-hazardous nuclear reprocessing facilities under a New Fiscal Union (New FU--there, coined it)? 

Shut it down.  No mas subsidies!

LeBalance's picture

the nuclear industry in this environment may have funding problems/maintenance problems as a result of fiscal shocks. the outcomes and care provided to these high maintenance facilities is (unfortunately) crucial for life on this planet. And it will be for the next 50,000 years.

It does not matter that you did not sign up for the task, the task must be accomplished because the consequences are too high.

this is a similar, but real, MAD card to that played by banksters.  Their MAD card though is one that they recycle constantly in the endgame in order to steal more.  In the case of the fiscal situation it is less painful long term to force the collapse, plan ahead for it, regulate it, but see it through.

Jim in MN's picture

Yes but you forget the part where you agree to retire the nuclear fuel cycle, THEN pay for the safety and security forevermore.  I know that both of those things will take a very long time.

Remember, when in a hole, first stop digging.

As for fiscal policy, the thing is to admit to debt impairment and take the losses.  All else is just making it worse.  That is the 'Japanification' debate.  By protecting bondholders, taxpayers and productive elements of society are damaged for extended periods of time.  Lost Decades and the like are the result.

Again, when in a hole.....

In some ways it seems that ZH as a website is asking the question, 'is humanity really capable of operating the complex systems we have become dependent upon, given fat tail/black swan risk events?'  And the single biggest answer is, 'CORRUPTION is the seed of the collapse and it does not look good'.  Whether the nuclear or financial systems are the topic of discussion.

midtowng's picture

Wow! That's like saying "We are predicting the End Of The World As We Know It".

Isn't their a rule that the truth can only be spoken on Friday afternoons and weekends?

LawsofPhysics's picture

The subliminal message is clear.  The swiss are out and will assume their neutral role for the duration of WWIII.  Hedge accordingly.

Miss Expectations's picture

I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.
Albert Einstein

San Diego Gold Bug's picture

Pull your extra cash out of your bank or money market fund and buy gold!  This will kick the boys right in the nuts!!  Bring on the bank runs!!!

wombats's picture

What would the end of the Euro mean for PMs?  Bullish or bearish?

San Diego Gold Bug's picture

Bearish at first due to massive liquidation of funds and the run to the "safe dollar".  Then it will turn very bullish as the dollar starts to come apart due to massive injections of capital by the fed to prop everything up.  There will be a stampede to all hard assets when Benny B.  prints, prints and prints!

mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Kinda like Neo's rebirth in The Matrix.  Short term pain, but bullish in time no doubt.

Zaydac's picture

Ok, let's get this straight.

Nobody knows what is happening.

Nobody knows what to do.

"Once you move into the sphere of concerns about sovereign debt, there is no answer; there’s no backstop.....Dealing with a banking crisis was bad enough. This would be worse."

(Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, 13 May 2010)

Zero Govt's picture

Spoken by serial-crone Mervyn King... the man who hasn't seen anything coming (but stays in his job) and hasn't done anything (yet stays in his seat)

... the 'regulator' of British banking that left the goaposts wide open ...the systemic guru that has the biggest concentration of banking monpolies on the globe ...the Governor that stood by as those banking monopolies got boiled down to even fewer monopolies with even greater systemic risk... whose banks projections have never been accurate during his entire time in office ...whose inflation target has never been hit ...who says nothing that British banks are multitudes larger than the UK economy whoch he doesn't see as any problem

...telling us there's "no backstop to sovereign debt" that like Bernanke he helped and indeed encoutaged by giving the British Govt more on the national credit card 

take nothing from this moron and his utterly corrupt central (monopoly) bank

Shutter the Bank of England ...now

lolmao500's picture

the systemic guru that has the biggest concentration of banking monpolies on the globe

Isn't that switzerland? Concentration of banks VS GDP?

Zero Govt's picture

there's dozens of banks in Switzerland ...there's 5...no, no, sorry now 4 in Blighty

(not including hundreds of nameplate banks in both countries)

British banks are fat diseased dinosaurs cosseted by decades of that protection racket, Govt, and its Regulatory bower constrictors to strangle all banking competition at birth. The British Govt and Merv the Swerve have exactly what they grew, the biggest concentration of risk in the fewest number of monoply dumb-fuk institutions:

Systemic Risk by Govt design writ 5 times larger than the British economy ...a colossal corrupt shambles ...what Govt always delivers 100% of the time (see British healthcare, education, water, electricity, nuclear, transport, green energy, military wars, roads, housing, yabba yabba)