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Credit Suisse Goes For Broke: Predicts End Of Euro, Escalating Bank Runs On "Strongest European Banks"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Just because Credit Suisse bankers are people too (even if 1% people, but still people), and just because they know too damn well that "no ECB intervention" means "no bonus", and very likely "no job", they go for broke and join Deutsche Bank, JPM, RBS, and everyone else (but, again, not Goldman), in predicting the end of Europe unless Draghi does his rightful duty and remembers that without banker support he will also be lining up at the jobless claims office very soon. Of course, being a Goldman boy, Draghi will only do what Lloyd tells him to. Either way, here is Credit Suisse's rejoinder to the global Mutual Assured Destruction tragicomedy, which now makes Honk (as Lagarde calls him) Paulson's overtures to congress seem like amateur hour. "We seem to have entered the last days of the euro as we currently know it. That doesn’t make a break-up very likely, but it does mean some extraordinary things will almost certainly need to happen – probably by mid-January – to prevent the progressive closure of all the euro zone sovereign bond markets, potentially accompanied by escalating runs on even the strongest banks. That may sound overdramatic, but it reflects the inexorable logic of investors realizing that – as things currently stand – they simply cannot be sure what exactly they are holding or buying in the euro zone sovereign bond markets...One paradox is that pressure on Italian and Spanish bond yields may get quite a lot worse even as their new governments start to deliver reforms – 10-year yields spiking above 9% for a short period is not something one could rule out. For that matter, it’s quite possible that we will see French yields above 5%, and even Bund yields rise during this critical fiscal union debate." Of course, the explicit message is: help us ECB-Wan Kenobi, you are our only hope. The implicit one is: do it, or we pull the trigger and blow it all up to hell.

Full note:

The “Last Days” of the Euro

 

We seem to have entered the last days of the euro as we currently know it. That doesn’t make a break-up very likely, but it does mean some extraordinary things will almost certainly need to happen – probably by mid-January – to prevent the progressive closure of all the euro zone sovereign bond markets, potentially accompanied by escalating runs on even the strongest banks.

 

That may sound overdramatic, but it reflects the inexorable logic of investors realizing that – as things currently stand – they simply cannot be sure what exactly they are holding or buying in the euro zone sovereign bond markets.

 

In the short run, this cannot be fixed by the ECB or by new governments in Greece, Italy or Spain: it’s about markets needing credible signals on the shape of fiscal and political union long before final treaty changes can take place. We suspect this spells the death of “muddle-through” as market pressures effectively force France and Germany to strike a momentous deal on fiscal union much sooner than currently seems possible, or than either would like. Then and only then do we think the ECB will agree to provide the bridge finance needed to prevent systemic collapse.

 

We think the debate on fiscal union will really heat up from this week when the Commission publishes a new paper on three different options for mutually guaranteed “Eurobonds”, continue at the summit on 9 December and through a key speech by President Sarkozy to the French nation scheduled for the 20th anniversary of the Maastricht Treaty (11 December).

 

While these discussions may give some short-term relief to markets, it seems likely that the process of reaching agreement will involve some high stakes brinkmanship and market turmoil in subsequent weeks. (Not unlike the US debt ceiling debate this summer, or the messy passage of TARP in 2008.)

 

One paradox is that pressure on Italian and Spanish bond yields may get quite a lot worse even as their new governments start to deliver reforms – 10-year yields spiking above 9% for a short period is not something one could rule out. For that matter, it’s quite possible that we will see French yields above 5%, and even Bund yields rise during this critical fiscal union debate.

 

Moreover, this could happen even as the ECB moves more aggressively to lower rates and introduce extra measures to provide banks with longer-term funding. And US bond yields may fall – or at least not rise – despite improving US growth data through end-year. Equally, global equity markets and world wealth could follow a more muted version of their early Q1:2009 sell-off until the political brinkmanship is resolved – see exhibits below.

 

In short, the fate of the euro is about to be decided. And the pressure for the necessary political breakthroughs will likely come from investors seeking to protect themselves from the utterly catastrophic consequences of a break-up – a scenario that their own fears should ultimately help to prevent!

 

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Mon, 11/21/2011 - 10:46 | 1898315 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Peep, peep!  Pay me, pay me!

Let these babies starve in the nest.  Parasites.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:05 | 1898404 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

This is exactly the kind of doomer analysis you would expect from a Swiss bank. Credit Suisse are just resentful that Switzerland never got around to joining the Euro and consequently missed out on top economic guidance from some of Europe's smartest and most experienced politicians. Switzerland had a chance to be part of something big, and they blew it.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:06 | 1898413 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

LOL, I appreciate the sarc.  This is sarcasm, right?

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:11 | 1898440 Esso
Esso's picture

I have a younger sister that has Down's Syndrome, and is severely and profoundly mentally retarded and handicapped. She never had a choice in the matter.

Pretending to be retarded on the internet to get a rise out of people isn't cute or entertaining, it's tragic. You need to get a fucking life.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:44 | 1898584 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

Almost every damn thread he posts on he lays out a contrarian post, in case you haven't noticed.  He's being sarcastic and the funny part of it is the weak minded assholes that go into foaming rages because of it.  If you don't find it funny, that's just as fine as if you do.  I don't think he gives a rats ass.

BTW, that's a pretty fucking weak stretch, tying your sister's misfortune and inability to write to some guys attempt at smarm.  Thank you so much for sharing your familial tragedy with the world.  You strike me as one of those sensitive types who had to parade their greater misfortune at some brinkmanship support group, light some candles in rememberance, wallow in your misery because it defines you.  Because it's all about you, you know.  Remember, whoever drags the biggest cross up the hill to Golgotha wins!

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:29 | 1898812 giddy
giddy's picture

...ummm...  what's the difference between using this example of profound prejudice and misfortune or using any of form of racial or social prejudice or misfortune to stop commentary?  Best way to stop freedom of speech is to accuse an individual of insensitivity to someones tribal or group identity.  Notice the identification of the group which is defined as "people with disabilities" rather than simply a sister.  Interesting how it always works this way.         

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 14:09 | 1899308 malek
malek's picture

There is a difference between being snarky, and being just plain annoying.

Tyler's post made me laugh hard twice, MDB is just plain stupid (ironic meant or not).

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:57 | 1898637 in-Credible Banker
in-Credible Banker's picture

Dude - calm down.  It is just satire.  WTF?!?!?!?

I have a handicapped CHILD and am actually resentful you would compare MDB's posts to such a situation.  Are you nuts??   

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:28 | 1898808 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Didn't know Blythe had an older brother.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:23 | 1898499 Saro
Saro's picture

Top men.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:25 | 1898511 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

LOL, besides, where is Davos again?  Not sure what 'advice' the Swissies are missing here....

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:21 | 1898579 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

A Swiss bank these days is like Swiss cheese.    Tasty but still full of holes.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 13:17 | 1899102 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

nah, Credit Suisse is not Swiss, it's First Boston Bank with a cheesy wrapper...

just look at the names of the analysts...

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 13:37 | 1899187 bentaxle
bentaxle's picture

And any banker is 90% wind, 10% criminal?

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:53 | 1898621 in-Credible Banker
in-Credible Banker's picture

MDB...........you are one funny MOFO.  Keep em coming!

 

LOL!!!!

 

 

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:10 | 1898691 MolotovCockhead
MolotovCockhead's picture

Verbal diarrhea.............Coming from a milliondollarAnus!

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 21:06 | 1900905 kill switch
kill switch's picture

Your motivation is clear.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 10:49 | 1898331 Shocker
Shocker's picture

There is more and more talk of the Euro collapsing. This can't end well

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 10:51 | 1898343 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

Hopefully they can get the 'droid programmed with the appropriate message

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmVr0Hs0UaI

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:35 | 1898554 i-dog
i-dog's picture

 

"do it, or we pull the trigger and blow it all up to hell."

This is the message I'd like to send them:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PyT4H11maeM

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 10:52 | 1898346 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Certainly not when most of the paper-pushing fucknuts and American financials book their "profits" from the shell game in Euros.

 

hedge accordingly.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 10:55 | 1898358 Shocker
Shocker's picture

Exactly, The affects will be felt everywhere. Companies/ Banks/ Market everyone has exposure to the euro.

Wonder what addition shocks it will have to our fragile economy

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 13:52 | 1898402 The Limerick King
The Limerick King's picture

 

 

The message is clear: "Print or Die"

Now surely these Banksters don't lie

Our markets they busted

Now they want to be trusted

If this wasn't so funny I'd cry!

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 10:58 | 1898376 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Here's what I want to know: the Swiss went "all in" with their peg to the Euro.  If the Euro blows up, what happens next?  Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm?

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:32 | 1898543 swiss chick
swiss chick's picture

Thats a really good question! no one seems to know or care...

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:27 | 1898799 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Indeed, a good question.  + 1 to you both.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:48 | 1898578 i-dog
i-dog's picture

If they're smart, they'd remove the peg.

So they'll probably keep the peg.

(If ... errm, sorry, when ... the Globalists succeed in crashing the global financial system, they will no longer need a separate money-laundering operation in Switzerland. The Swiss are being sold down the river with the rest of us.)

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 10:59 | 1898378 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

All eyes are on Merkel.  I'd wager the big banks have dartboards with her face on 'em.  I wonder what the "let the ECB print" bribes being thrown her way look like these days.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:03 | 1898396 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

It's not just Merkel, see below.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:05 | 1898410 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Thx.  Some irony here with the German's position in this currency world war, no?

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:18 | 1898464 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

mk,

German psyche is a tricky thing. As I've said all along the fear factor in 'printing' €'s is a big unknown. Analysis has its limits. What would be an epic irony, IMHO, is if the German's use all this world-wide anti-Goldman sentiment and throw a massive monkey wrench into the banking complex.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 10:56 | 1898353 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

'Such determination could only be the product of the deep institutional memory the ECB has inherited from its ideological parent, the German Bundesbank. In their shared orthodoxy, printing money to buy government debt is the first step down a slippery slope that ends in hyperinflation -- a scourge that, between the two world wars, combined with punitive reparations to undermine the Weimar Republic and make way for the rise of Nazism. As German Economy Minister Philipp Roesler recently put it, it is in Germans’ “genetic code” to avoid printing money: “You can’t make the mistake of giving in to this pressure. You’ll never get out of it, and that would be the end.”'

I also invite you warmly to read the comments section for such brilliant analysis as:

'Jasenka Petrujkic in reply to PERALTA STONES 1 hour ago That is impossible. A currency, whether it is backed by promise of gold or grain, reflects human need to  exchange with other humans. It receives its intrinsic value from our socialness, our connectedness. You may believe that each and every one of us is an individual, independent of all others, but nobody, and especially not ultra rich, lives off their own production.' Just... wow.
Mon, 11/21/2011 - 15:48 | 1899421 Reptil
Reptil's picture

The article is wrong on 4 counts:

First, Germany was actually doing quite well, after a rough time, dealing with the WW1 aftermath. It was making pacts with Poland etc, but then "someone" decided to kill Rathenau, who was the brains behind this recovery. (who benefits?)
Then, after stopping monetising debt the country recovered fairly quickly which is completely missed in this article. That ended the hyperinflation, because trust was restored, not refusal to allow defaults! It's telling that most do not know the difference between inflation and hyperinflation. It's the corruption that undermined the euro. NONE of the rules were abided. If they'd print, this would not be solved: The euro would lose trust, and there'd be the biggest gold/silver rush in modern history.

Thirdly, no, austerity is not part of Keynes' ideas, but neither is ridiculous leverage, that has now resulted in insolvency. THAT is the problem. Which can only be solved, as the main article points out, by defaults. Otherwise everything will be dragged into the hole. IT'S JUST TOO BIG A HOLE TO PAPER OVER. Arguably, that's a goal for some: Everyone into the hole except for themselves. And some sheeple buy that; because they think "money will be replaced soon". (yeah with RFID chips)

Fourthly, the US economy after the second world war needed a boost, the Marshall plan was part of this buildup of civil economy, production carried it along, for quite a while. Reparations to be paid by Germany were halted, as long as Germany was not united. This allowed a new economy to be built, while debt, created by politicians (when Germany was defeated a second time) was suspended by those same politicians. NONE of this is possible to accomplish on short notice, in the present financial structure.  The proposed (?) "new Marshall plan" would be built on...... more debt, more payments, and over a longer period. Instead of pointing at the "Wirtschaftswunder", one should point at Japan's "lost decade", because that, EXACTLY that, will happen, if Germany (the last one standing) succumbs to the bankers too. MORE debt in public accounts, no fresh new start, and thus.. more austerity. With two differences. Japan has eaten most of it's own debt with a trade surplus and it's population STILL puts it's trust in feodal hierarchy structures. Europeans lost that, a couple of centuries ago.

edited for clarity.

 

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 10:48 | 1898323 Antifederalist
Antifederalist's picture

Credit Suisse:  europe is falling apart.  Gee,  ya think....

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 10:48 | 1898324 deepsouthdoug
deepsouthdoug's picture

Is it 'Credit Suisse goes for broke', or Credit Suisse goes TO broke?

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 10:48 | 1898325 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

I wonder what Germany will do with France's ultra-hazardous nuclear reprocessing facilities under a New Fiscal Union (New FU--there, coined it)? 

Shut it down.  No mas subsidies!

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:14 | 1898458 LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

the nuclear industry in this environment may have funding problems/maintenance problems as a result of fiscal shocks. the outcomes and care provided to these high maintenance facilities is (unfortunately) crucial for life on this planet. And it will be for the next 50,000 years.

It does not matter that you did not sign up for the task, the task must be accomplished because the consequences are too high.

this is a similar, but real, MAD card to that played by banksters.  Their MAD card though is one that they recycle constantly in the endgame in order to steal more.  In the case of the fiscal situation it is less painful long term to force the collapse, plan ahead for it, regulate it, but see it through.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:23 | 1898502 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Yes but you forget the part where you agree to retire the nuclear fuel cycle, THEN pay for the safety and security forevermore.  I know that both of those things will take a very long time.

Remember, when in a hole, first stop digging.

As for fiscal policy, the thing is to admit to debt impairment and take the losses.  All else is just making it worse.  That is the 'Japanification' debate.  By protecting bondholders, taxpayers and productive elements of society are damaged for extended periods of time.  Lost Decades and the like are the result.

Again, when in a hole.....

In some ways it seems that ZH as a website is asking the question, 'is humanity really capable of operating the complex systems we have become dependent upon, given fat tail/black swan risk events?'  And the single biggest answer is, 'CORRUPTION is the seed of the collapse and it does not look good'.  Whether the nuclear or financial systems are the topic of discussion.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 10:49 | 1898332 midtowng
midtowng's picture

Wow! That's like saying "We are predicting the End Of The World As We Know It".

Isn't their a rule that the truth can only be spoken on Friday afternoons and weekends?

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 10:49 | 1898333 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

The subliminal message is clear.  The swiss are out and will assume their neutral role for the duration of WWIII.  Hedge accordingly.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:02 | 1898654 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.
Albert Einstein

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 10:50 | 1898337 San Diego Gold Bug
San Diego Gold Bug's picture

Pull your extra cash out of your bank or money market fund and buy gold!  This will kick the boys right in the nuts!!  Bring on the bank runs!!!

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 10:51 | 1898342 wombats
wombats's picture

What would the end of the Euro mean for PMs?  Bullish or bearish?

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 10:55 | 1898359 San Diego Gold Bug
San Diego Gold Bug's picture

Bearish at first due to massive liquidation of funds and the run to the "safe dollar".  Then it will turn very bullish as the dollar starts to come apart due to massive injections of capital by the fed to prop everything up.  There will be a stampede to all hard assets when Benny B.  prints, prints and prints!

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 10:56 | 1898367 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Kinda like Neo's rebirth in The Matrix.  Short term pain, but bullish in time no doubt.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 10:53 | 1898344 Zaydac
Zaydac's picture

Ok, let's get this straight.

Nobody knows what is happening.

Nobody knows what to do.

"Once you move into the sphere of concerns about sovereign debt, there is no answer; there’s no backstop.....Dealing with a banking crisis was bad enough. This would be worse."

(Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, 13 May 2010)

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:03 | 1898399 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Spoken by serial-crone Mervyn King... the man who hasn't seen anything coming (but stays in his job) and hasn't done anything (yet stays in his seat)

... the 'regulator' of British banking that left the goaposts wide open ...the systemic guru that has the biggest concentration of banking monpolies on the globe ...the Governor that stood by as those banking monopolies got boiled down to even fewer monopolies with even greater systemic risk... whose banks projections have never been accurate during his entire time in office ...whose inflation target has never been hit ...who says nothing that British banks are multitudes larger than the UK economy whoch he doesn't see as any problem

...telling us there's "no backstop to sovereign debt" that like Bernanke he helped and indeed encoutaged by giving the British Govt more on the national credit card 

take nothing from this moron and his utterly corrupt central (monopoly) bank

Shutter the Bank of England ...now

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:10 | 1898437 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

the systemic guru that has the biggest concentration of banking monpolies on the globe

Isn't that switzerland? Concentration of banks VS GDP?

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 19:53 | 1900730 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

there's dozens of banks in Switzerland ...there's 5...no, no, sorry now 4 in Blighty

(not including hundreds of nameplate banks in both countries)

British banks are fat diseased dinosaurs cosseted by decades of that protection racket, Govt, and its Regulatory bower constrictors to strangle all banking competition at birth. The British Govt and Merv the Swerve have exactly what they grew, the biggest concentration of risk in the fewest number of monoply dumb-fuk institutions:

Systemic Risk by Govt design writ 5 times larger than the British economy ...a colossal corrupt shambles ...what Govt always delivers 100% of the time (see British healthcare, education, water, electricity, nuclear, transport, green energy, military wars, roads, housing, yabba yabba) 

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 10:53 | 1898348 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Daaaaamn! ...all the news is bad today

Must be signal for a stock market rally!

"..the Commission publishes a new paper on three different options for mutually guaranteed Eurobonds

mutually guaranteed Eurocide

there fixed it

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 10:52 | 1898350 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

All my puts are stop loss and waiting! :)))

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 10:53 | 1898351 rambler6421
rambler6421's picture

Bank run bitchez!

 

libertarian86.blogspot.com

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 10:54 | 1898352 GoodMorningMr.V...
GoodMorningMr.VanRumpoy...'s picture

"Help us ECB-Wan Kenobi, you are our only hope. The implicit one is: do it, or we pull the trigger and blow it all up to hell."

 

Not going to happen germany doesn't care.  They win even if Euro collaspes.

 

Germany joined the Euro so it could sell it's manufactured goods cheap to the peripherals countries and get them hooked.

At the bargaining  table right now, the profligate countrys believing their is some sort of common Euro state  and that  ECB is community  organization are demanding  something that amounts to inflation.

Germany response: to demand to take over Europe by having veto power over individuals countries budget. (fiscal control which is effectively absolute control of the countries.) or the Euro dies. ECB in Germany, is Germany.

Because Germany wins even if the EURO collapses. Being that  Germany is one of the only countries that’s  part of the club that produces some real wealth. They could just keep all their old debts denominated in Euro, which the new Deutsch market would rapidly appreciate against.

Once the other countries get their monetary policy back they will fall to political pressure from the electorate, massively print out money for the citizens to maintain their life style and buying German goods.

Only option to save Euro is to give control of Europe over to Germany.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:24 | 1898504 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

People in Greece and iTaly are already attacking german tourists. Don't expect them to "buy german goods". Germany tried -once more- to subjugate it's neighbors. It backfired -once more- and three strikes you're out. Their credibility is completely gone. The rest of the world has been very lenient with them, but it's pretty clear that they have not changed and never will. Just like a drunkard who swears to his wife he'll change and drop the bottle.
It's time to put them down. For good.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:15 | 1898720 Marigold
Marigold's picture

How does it go... Just because they don't like their reflection in the mirror doesn't mean the mirror is ugly.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:53 | 1898988 Marigold
Marigold's picture

How does it go... Just because they don't like their reflection in the mirror doesn't mean the mirror is ugly.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 10:55 | 1898355 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

The Big banks could always get that UC-Davis police officer to line up the ECB bankers,  and pepper spray them.  Seems to be the tactic of TPTB.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 10:55 | 1898357 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Long ink stocks and long physical gold.  Think I'll pop some corn.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 10:56 | 1898363 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

ECB-Wan Kenobi...now that's a name I've not heard in a long, long time.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 10:58 | 1898373 JenkinsLane
JenkinsLane's picture

+1

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:24 | 1898505 Big Slick
Big Slick's picture

ECB-Wan Dover?  I wonder if he means old Ben Dover.


Mon, 11/21/2011 - 14:51 | 1899461 Strider52
Strider52's picture

These are not the bonds you are looking for.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 10:57 | 1898370 youngman
youngman's picture

Yes ..if you STILL have money over there you are going to lose....but the funniest thing is that they are running to the US....lol.....and gold and silver are down...yes I know options expiry is tommoroow night...but there has to be a lot of demand right now to beat the banks raid on gold and silver....IMHO...but then I drink too much....or maybe not enough...burp

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:04 | 1898403 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

but the funniest thing is that they are running to the US....lol.....and gold and silver are down

 

It's Black Friday week - everything's on sale.  :D

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:48 | 1898602 BoNeSxxx
BoNeSxxx's picture

Totally agree... this is the last great PM sale of the year.

Careful though, margin calls and liquidity needs could mean massive sell-offs by not weak hands but tied ones. Even some of the fuckshites will be reluctant sellers.

In the long run however, any gold below $1,800 and Silver below $35 is on freakin' sale.  

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:35 | 1898859 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1

Buy physical gold, even now; be patient and wind up happy.  Yes, PMs are on sale now.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 13:39 | 1899199 bentaxle
bentaxle's picture

Just out of interest is it just gold or is silver in there as well?

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 10:58 | 1898375 Gandalf6900
Gandalf6900's picture

Not sure why but I always laugh when a big bank issues a gloom and doom report...

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:00 | 1898384 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Whaddya think they're doin' when they hit the "send" button?

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 10:59 | 1898379 JenkinsLane
JenkinsLane's picture

Why is GS holding fire on calling for the same?

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:29 | 1898527 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

they are waiting until they are positioned correctly. Probably pushing it until there is a blow up some place so they cn get the assets on the cheap.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 10:59 | 1898381 Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

"they simply cannot be sure what exactly they are holding or buying in the euro zone sovereign bond markets"

 

Because what they hold is f-ing fiat, you moron. Did it take them this long to figure that out?

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:05 | 1898407 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture
Here, we can help the poor sods.
FIAT
"authoritative sanction," 1630s, from L. fiat "let it be done" (also used in the opening of M.L. proclamations and commands), third person singular present subjunctive of fieri, used as passive of facere "to make, do" (see factitious). Also sometimes a reference to fiat lux "let there be light" in the Book of Genesis.
Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:01 | 1898386 yogibear
yogibear's picture

It's about time. The Euro was too high and way too many countries were slacking.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:02 | 1898392 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Unrelated post: TD, the Vix to 40 guest post is blank (at least for me).  Hoping that can be fixed as we watch the CNBC spin manual try to digest this morning's free fall...

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:02 | 1898393 Don Diego
Don Diego's picture

come on Credit Suisse and the ECB have the same owners. Their disagreements are just the bad cop / good cop old routine.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:03 | 1898394 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Ok. The developed world is wallowing in debt and bad banks. There's acrimony. So this can go one of 2 ways: not just Eurozone but the entire developed world fragment into a million pieces (Eurozone, NATO crumbling, countries dividing up into states and territories) ...OR....we could all unite under the umbrella of our new global currency: The Esperanto! Re-value all debt, private and public, at 1:100 denominated in the new currency (like a giant global haircut). Then we could go forward into a happy world of iBrains and iSex 

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:07 | 1898419 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

I'll take curtain number 1, Monty.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:07 | 1898406 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The Fed is coordinating this event through back door liquidity swaps.  The event taking place is a run up of Euro bunds so that Treasurie debt looks like a steal.  This event, this Euro Contagion, provides Treasurie debt breathing room when in fact the whole bond market is near capitulation.  US Munis are any better right now?  Not when counties are declaring bancruptcy.  Mere's call is correct, but her timing was off, and since timing is everything when trading, she is getting beat up for not being yet correct.

Europe will print soon, or they won't and Europe will explode, but if that happens who will buy USTs?  China is in over its head with Euro debt, and if that trade goes further south they won't have the income and principle to buy Treasurie debt. 

Look for a collapse of all bond markets.  Maybe the corporate bond market makes it out alive, as banks decide to buy bonds from GS because firms have a vested interest in the wellfare of their corporate power.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:06 | 1898416 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Merkel could solve all this by replacing the Bundesbank leadership.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:08 | 1898428 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Merkel doesn't want to solve anything.  She loves this shitshow.  It is showing the world that Germany is in control of Europe for the first time in 80 years.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:06 | 1898417 Nate H
Nate H's picture

re Credit Suisse - do they know what they are saying?  Euro blows up so does Switzerland. In NONE of these Wall St reports do they talk about supply chain breakdowns and borders closing to trade. Idiots. So focused on the tree harvesting they miss the forest fire...

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:13 | 1898435 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The Swiss all own guns and they have detonation on every bridge leading outside of their State.  If Europe loses control of its finances their will be war (again) and the Swiss will lock themselves in their island economy.  They will be better off than anyone in the area.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:16 | 1898468 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Chocolate, cheese, milkmaids and long guns FTW

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:18 | 1898475 Nate H
Nate H's picture

Oh, sorry. Ya they'll be fine then.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:46 | 1898592 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The financial system has been an amalgamation of fallacious concepts.  Why would ending it produce some catastrophic event?  Let the system come crumbling down!  We don't need banks, banks need us!

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:08 | 1898420 hollowbody
hollowbody's picture

Bank rhetoric has simply followed the dominoes one by one, instead of hitting Germany or more particularly France, both of which as everyone knows are not really in any better shape than anyone else, from the beginning, and tearing at the heart of that particular marriage made in heaven between Merkel and Sarkozy's respective needs, which unfortunately, is built on centuries of none to comfortable truth... When the heat does turn on France, as it surely must, then and only then will we be getting close to an end-game with the Euro. It's just a shame that we've had to sit through an 'entre' (ironically Greek salad), the hors d'oeuvres (typically filling Italian Lasagne), before we move on towards the main plate, French Frog's legs, which will be over all too quickly before the waiter is promising us a nice English cup of  tea to wash down our Donut.... Anyone who fancies somehting alcoholic to help digest with will be told in no uncertain terms that the German beer is not to everyone's taste and is best reserved for the locals....

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:07 | 1898421 youngman
youngman's picture

The ECB bought 8.8 billion last week...actually two weeks ago....up from 4.5 billion....

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:08 | 1898425 Odin
Odin's picture

Gearin' up for their global currency...

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:09 | 1898431 loveyajimbo
loveyajimbo's picture

A rare video pf Lloyd Blankfeins mother rising from her bath:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-VN2KRxTdjE 

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:26 | 1898432 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

I love the smell of Banker fear in the morning.

It even gives me a woody.

They should maybe go and gather them pesky damn "Green Shoots" up,that are laying around for the picking.

That would save them all,Benny told me so.

 

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:11 | 1898441 FranSix
FranSix's picture

Cuts to Canadian deficit spending in 1994:

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/11/21/lessons-from-canadas-basket-case-moment/

Canada also sold its gold in that time.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:13 | 1898451 neevarp
neevarp's picture

Just in time for a rally in euro/usd.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:15 | 1898461 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Good morning,MillionDollarCumSwallower.

Wipe your chin off,it's afully messy.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:26 | 1898513 El Gordo
El Gordo's picture

If you really want to fix it, blow it up first.  If you just want to continue the drag indefinately, just keep on keeping on.  Blow it up and let's get that part over with.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:27 | 1898520 NorthPole
NorthPole's picture

Have you guys noticed that Merkozy went stangely missing in action as of last week? Before he(?) was all over the place, hugging him(?)self, giving public speeches, scheming, but now - nada!

 

Something is boiling under the lid.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:33 | 1898552 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Low Plains Grifter ? What's with you and the Yids ? Are you a victim of Botched Circumcision Syndrome ! I think you give them way too much credit for evil ! Israel isn't your father's Warsaw Ghetto ! As a child did root for Tom and not for Jerry....like the rest of us ? You flatter them with all your hate ! Get a grip ! Get up to speed ! Marry a Jew bitch and make some babies ! Maybe you'll have a change of heart ! No, I'm not Jewish ! Monedas 2011 Unofficial Spokesman For The Jewish People

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:36 | 1898561 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

 

(paste)– to prevent the progressive closure of all the euro zone sovereign bond markets, potentially accompanied by escalating runs on even the strongest banks.

credit suisse note to self:

  1.    if i see the horse running down the road
  2.    then i should go close the barn door

 

 

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:37 | 1898562 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

All you need to know about PMs in this crisis is that CBs are buying as much as they can and producing countries are severely limiting exports.  Re silver specifically, a GSR over 50, after considering the true real world scarcity, amount of above ground stocks, demand and production ratio indicates that the GSR should be less than 10, screams bullishness for this metal.

Remember what Kyle Bass said about assymetric opportunities?

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:42 | 1898581 bill1102inf
bill1102inf's picture

Hell of a day to be long USD FIAT worthless paper.  Don't look now but the value of your gold in ES isn't looking so good

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:52 | 1898614 San Diego Gold Bug
San Diego Gold Bug's picture

Gold in USD's is still up 20% this year?.  S&P 900 coming soon!!

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:44 | 1898586 buzlightening
buzlightening's picture

So! Actual self evident truth about paper fiat debt based currencies do have a certainty.  They always revert to intrinsic value; zero.  Wouldn't want to be without ounces of PM's in hand going into this implosion.  No paper fiat amount on any asset will have price discovery in monetary value based against a moving target of fiat headed to zero.  No standard to gauge a thing, as the dead head feds are clueless where it ends after burning to ashes.  Only thing one may have to go by is before the 1913 dead head fed distortion process began.  Median home price 40 ounces of gold.  

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 11:55 | 1898631 San Diego Gold Bug
San Diego Gold Bug's picture

Buz,   You are obviously smarter than every fool in congress.  Great comment!

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:45 | 1898939 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

so, 220,000/40 = 5500/oz gold.  That seems perfectly reasonble.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:52 | 1898980 Major Priapus
Major Priapus's picture

I see your gold and raise you canned goods and extra ammo!

 

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:25 | 1898676 Major Priapus
Major Priapus's picture

It would appear that Sean Corrigan was uncannily prescient today!!!

http://www.cobdencentre.org/2011/11/the-road-to-a-new-serfdom/comment-page-1/

outstanding article - the most insightful analysis of the Weimar Republic fiscal and monetary debacle I have ever read!

...  and most à propos!

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 12:16 | 1898726 AnarchoCapitalist
AnarchoCapitalist's picture

Am I the only one who LOL'ed at "Honk" Paulson? Underrated.

Mon, 11/21/2011 - 15:40 | 1899724 Major Priapus
Major Priapus's picture

Buzlightening is on to something...  100 oz actually, not 40 oz.

a bit of goggle-whacking and lo and behold!!!  despite the machinations of the dirigists - an inexhorable reversion to the mean does manifest itself!!!

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/media_stream/mineweb/1/132376/images/ash1.jpg

 

 

Mon, 12/05/2011 - 05:47 | 1946037 xcehn
xcehn's picture

Banksters to ECB:  Print money or the economy gets it.  And the banksters never get theirs?  Nice extortion racket if you can get it. Where do these sub-vermin think they can hide if the system is blown to hell?

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