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Credit Suisse The Sequel: "Probability Of The Largest Disorderly Default Loss In History On March 20 Has Increased"

Tyler Durden's picture


A week ago we presented an excerpt from Credit Suisse's most excellent piece "The Flaw" - merely the latest in one of the best overviews of the neverending Greek soap opera by William Porter. Yet every soap opera eventually ends. Although when it comes to Nielsen ratings, the denouement is usually a whimper. In the case of Greece, it will be anything but. Yet listening to the daily cacafony of din from Europe's leaders, who are likely more clueless than the average reader as to what is really going on, one may be left with the impression that there is a simple solution to the problem, and Greece may be "saved... in hours." It can't. In fact, as of today, Porter's s conclusion is: "we are left with a sense that the probability of delivering the largest default loss in history in a disorderly way on or before 20 March has increased relative to doing so in an orderly way."

As a reminder, Credit Suisse was the one smart enough bank which chose to completely ignore day to day newsflow out of Greece as it is literally noise with absolutely no signal. Wish we could say the same for FX traders. As such, CS' "view remains that, in any case, the chance of a disorderly outcome after 20 March is high, so to that extent the immediate events are not really central to our view, but of course are fascinating." Quite fascinating indeed, because they show to what extent an unravelling financial system will go to pretend that the number one unfixable problem in Europe - the lack of money good assets, available to either be sold, repoed, pledged, equitized, or otherwise monetized. As we have observed previously, at this point it doesn't matter for Greece- even if the country gets the second bailout, which will be used almost exclusively to recycle cash into the banking system, Europe will have a first lien on nearly 150% of its GDP. At that point the country is both a de facto and de jure colony of the Troika. The longer the bang, or whimper, is delayed, the fewer assets will remain in Greek possession, and the poorer the population will be for the inevitable fresh start, with or without the Euro.

So meandering regurgitations aside, because all this has been said one hundred times already, here is Credit Suisse's latest attempt at a fresh take on events.

We are cautious about reports of the exchange “running out of time”: the 20 March binding constraint is a GGB maturity. Greece is sovereign and has run out of money; it can choose the timetable. The case might be different if the maturity were an English law bond (but perhaps not much.)


The real issue remains the ECB’s exposure to the BoG, in our view. Protecting that (i.e., ensuring that Greece does not systematically default via introducing a new currency) becomes the bottom line, as the latest Flash explored.


Since our objection to ‘leaving EMU’ is that its corollary is systematic default, bank nationalization and the like, once the latter problems are a given, a situation towards which we seem to be heading rapidly in Greece, then the cost of the incremental step of introducing a new currency become less. Our view remains that the economy would subsequently euro-ize but potentially at a different cost level. The effect of the delay would have been to transfer the cost from Greek citizens (who have now moved substantial sums out of the country, providing in fact a source of subsequent BoP financing that makes the equation even more attractive) to the ECB. The core has a very serious problem and again should swerve, but the probability of a ‘crash’ is rising.


We remain very cautious about the long-term sustainability of the debt after restructuring, and it is just possible (not our core case) that the troika takes the rational decision that it is cheaper to let Greece default and reimburse the ECB for its approx. €30bn of GGB  losses than to pay the rising but nominally €130bn. Yet it was only on 14 February (two days before writing) that the ECB was confidently talking of distributing its GGB profits, so we are cautious about second-guessing the analytical framework being used.


Overall, we are left with a sense that the probability of delivering the largest default loss in history in a disorderly way on or before 20 March has increased relative to doing so in an orderly way. (Our view remains that, in any case, the chance of a disorderly outcome  after 20 March is high, so to that extent the immediate events are not really central to our view, but of course are fascinating).


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Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:11 | 2168069 booboo
booboo's picture


Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:31 | 2168133 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

indeed.  and why do they so strenuously avoid the orderly default?  oh that's right.  for the same reason oedipus fucked up.  hubris.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:32 | 2168135 phungus_mungus
phungus_mungus's picture

For the love of GOD let's get this over with already.... 

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:37 | 2168148 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Get what over with ? Is there something going on? Did I miss something ?

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:42 | 2168162 IndicaTive
IndicaTive's picture

Nigel Farage latest. Someone alert the media. for the threadjack

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:01 | 2168183 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I have a man crush on Nigel.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:25 | 2168288 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Nigel is a HOTTY!

I agree!

Man Crush!

we should kidnap him and bring him to America or Fight Club at the least!

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:59 | 2168363 flacon
flacon's picture

Why default when paper is FREE?! If we had a gold standard then I could understand a default, but why risk a banking crisis when it could all be taken care of with more cotton rags - I mean more pretty holographic crisp bank notes from the ECB?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 01:29 | 2168596 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

I have watched many video's on youtube of Farange and am dissapointed that a mere 4000 or 3000 have watched the clip.  he's probably like Ron Paul where the msm won't give hime coverage

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 10:13 | 2169185 chubbar
chubbar's picture

I just watched the video and YOUTUBE is reporting only 303 views. Let's fact it, YOUTUBE, GOOGLE and the rest of these mega entities have been co-opted into being yet one more arm of the gov't propaganda machine. There is no friggin way only 303 people viewed this video.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 00:47 | 2168514 Muddy1
Muddy1's picture

Nigel is a stud.  If we had someone like him running for President, he'd win by a landslide.  What cahones!

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 06:16 | 2168812 NorthPole
NorthPole's picture

Wake up. How are you going to win elections with all MSM ignoring you?

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:23 | 2168285 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture




Nigel Farage latest. Someone alert the media. for the threadjack


Great grab! Thanks for Sharing IndicaTive ! YOU! ROCK!!


Bring Nigel to America! PLEASE!! Pretty Please! wiff sugga on top! we will make his half toasted? toast and tea! whatever it takes! just get him here! Trade Obama or whoever the English want!

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 06:38 | 2168835 ConfederateH
ConfederateH's picture

You guys already have Ron Paul, stop being so greedy.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 08:41 | 2168923 StormShadow
StormShadow's picture

Yeah, I mean it's not like the citizenship requirement is a hangup anymore. Now that we have the Adobe amendment to the Constitution the whole world is eligible.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:54 | 2168348 vh070
vh070's picture

Wonder why the Amadeus Amadeus tune starts up in my head every time I hear Puppet Papademos...

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 07:50 | 2168864 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

you really love this darling of the City of London?

I find it strange indeed

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:44 | 2168169 He_Who Carried ...
He_Who Carried The Sun's picture


Merkel said in 2011 that it will be in 2013
and she's had her way so far and so she will in the future...

They will let this bail-out pass and at the same time
the EU prepares the ground for the exit of Greece in 2013.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:52 | 2168196 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

she's had her way so far and so she will in the future

That is a logical fallacy.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:07 | 2168239 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

or an axiomatic assertion, depending which nipple i'm dealing with...

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:30 | 2168295 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

speaking of which, who is that individual below his name (which escapes me now)?  

our ace in the hole?  they really, truly, for sure and without a doubt, are insolvent.

and they are not just the greeks.  or the european banks.  or their insurers.  counterparties.  derivative customers.  ouch.  

the fed isn't able to be insolvent, or so it says.  what would you guess its net equity is now, now that they've sold off the good stuff?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 00:39 | 2168488 HurricaneSeason
HurricaneSeason's picture

The Fed had good stuff? What was it, Afghanistan heroin? They weren't suppose to lose that until next year.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 08:15 | 2168883 The Reich
The Reich's picture

For the sake of truth, is this an official denial?

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:16 | 2168263 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

@Dr. Engali

For GOD SAKES man, Whitney Houston is STILL dead!

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:40 | 2168317 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Shit that too?! Well get this. I was on another thread and apparently Greece is about to default ........ Any year now.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 00:01 | 2168371 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

LOL, good one. I get it.

Like anyone would be stupid enough to lend money to Greece.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 07:21 | 2168854 machineh
machineh's picture

Heh-heh, Tyler said 'cacafony'! Literal translation: shit-talkin'

Morning coffee's got my guts growling, off to BoG!

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 00:16 | 2168424 Isherwood
Isherwood's picture

Short OxyContin

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 00:16 | 2168425 Isherwood
Isherwood's picture

Short OxyContin

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 00:25 | 2168453 true brain
true brain's picture

For the love of Nothing let's get this over with already...

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 04:50 | 2168761 respect the cock
respect the cock's picture

If we have a deflationary collapse does that mean the price for hookers will go down?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 07:57 | 2168868 masterinchancery
masterinchancery's picture

"For the love of God, Montressor!" "Yes, for the love of God." The Casque of Amontillado, 1846, Edgar Allen Poe.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:01 | 2168225 SnobGobbler
SnobGobbler's picture

this default will take till our next war....and fuck your CDS unless you are a primary dealer, they get the gold first remember...

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:44 | 2168330 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture


Not hubris.


Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:12 | 2168200 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

It's all priced in, along with defaults of the rest of PIIGS+France+UK+US+Japan.



Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:23 | 2168283 espirit
espirit's picture

What's plan "B"?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 01:17 | 2168574 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture


Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:13 | 2168257 The Man in Room Five
The Man in Room Five's picture

Why 3/23? I thought it was the 20th?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 02:25 | 2168642 Rogue Trooper
Rogue Trooper's picture

Look, the historians after 3/23 (once we get back to having paper) will certainly question why this day and how the profit "Booboo the Wise" was albe to predict the "Great Reckoning & Subsequent Fall" with such clarity.

The people will listen to "The Sayer" tell the old fable, "Thee shall say arhhhhhh and thee shall pay homage to and worship the great "Booboo" and hope for his return for he will once more speak again, provide infinite wisdom and steadfast clarity for the 99.  The Vilage "Sayer" will then instruct the people to charnt!

"3.23 or thereabout, with QE3, it's roundabout"

"3.23 or thereabout! with QE4, it's roundabout"

"3.23 or thereabout! with QE5, it's roundabout"  etc... for a few hours

I'm so over this.... I hope we are not hearing the same shit this time next year.


Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:22 | 2168282 LiquidityandLunacy
LiquidityandLunacy's picture

In all seriousness, should i buy food and take out cash from my credit union in advance of this? Maybe buy more ammo?



Just asking if this might be the d-day

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 00:07 | 2168386 Waffen
Waffen's picture

You should have done this long ago. The writing has been on the wall and to say well it hasn't happened yet so you made the right choice.

Hindsight is 20x20

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 00:43 | 2168501 HurricaneSeason
HurricaneSeason's picture

Stock up on gasoline, I have 1250 gallons in my garage so far.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 02:12 | 2168633 LiquidityandLunacy
LiquidityandLunacy's picture

dude i live in an apartment. If the shtf, im getting in my car and going to naples. Gimme wide open spaces and nato rounds.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 04:52 | 2168762 respect the cock
respect the cock's picture

Um, hopefully all your shit is in a flammable liquid cabinet?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 21:03 | 2171993 mkkby
mkkby's picture

There is no threat to the ECB.  They print money, alright?  This is a big nothing burger.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:15 | 2168076 Caggge
Caggge's picture

A disorderly default from a disorderly economy. Just what should happen!

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:43 | 2168166 brewing
brewing's picture

whose going to cover the cds... no one...

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:15 | 2168077 jm
jm's picture

What I wonder is if NBG will be nationalized or recapitalized.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:16 | 2168082 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 This is Sean's call. Over at Forex Live. I'm calling it ) You know the #.s SEAN!   You Farm BoY!

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:16 | 2168085 BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

3/23/12  CNBC Headline "Futures Rise on Greek Default Hopes".  You just know they are going to spin this shit as if it were somehow positive...

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:32 | 2168138 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

There is nothing that will tank this market. If Ben has to print enough money to buy up every company out there he will. What ever it takes to keep this market afloat.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:43 | 2168164 BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

Wish you were wrong, but you're not.  I expect more no volume, no volatility trading in the market until it tanks again, then its print to infinity time...


Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:56 | 2168207 J 457
J 457's picture

Regardless of market direction, the volatility index will double within the next 30-45 days.   

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:17 | 2168090 prains
prains's picture

Waiting for something to blow up in or around Iran very shortly otherwise a Kardascian may have an accident

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 06:32 | 2168822 NorthPole
NorthPole's picture

I am hearing that Iran, after a decade spent developing their nuclear program and trying to build DaBomb, just now when they are fully aware USA is on the verge of attack, simply couldn't resist the urge to give The Great Satan a perfect excuse to go ahead. So they decided to kill a random Israeli diplomat or two. MSM says they have sent a bunch of nincompoops to Thailand who were going around blowing bombs in their own house, throwing granades at taxi drivers and at themselves blowing their own legs off in the process. Thank God all were quickly caught and confessed on the very same day.


How absurd a lie can you swallow? Open wide!

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 07:39 | 2168859 Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

This is the video of the Thai bomber without legs - warning extremely NSFW / NSFL

You will note the location of his body... it's a bus stop, he didn't make anywhere sensitive, and his bag is intact (and a random pair of trousers are in a tree). Suicide bombers usually detonate around the chest / in the bag, for reference.

Guess he must have been one of those shoe bombers....

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:20 | 2168095 Long-John-Silver
Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:35 | 2168145 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Get all your fireworks well in advance of July 4th....

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:19 | 2168096 Tsunami Wave
Tsunami Wave's picture

Largest default for now. Then comes Italy, Spain, etc.. right up to the U.S.A.?

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:21 | 2168101 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

The race to the bottom will result with everyone at the bottom.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:09 | 2168245 erg
erg's picture

The lowest common denominator reigns supreme.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 00:01 | 2168369 vh070
vh070's picture

I'm with Farage, if Italy (TBTF) goes so do the rest.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:24 | 2168108 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Like your moniker, the wave will radiate from the epicenter.

I've heard that when the Euro goes tits up, you've got 2 weeks to get what you need and into hard assets.  If you're lucky.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:18 | 2168272 Waffen
Waffen's picture

You heard? Atleast inform the audience that your source is Lindsey Williams. I am not saying he is wrong, but you should be open about it.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 01:20 | 2168580 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

He ain't the only one saying that.

I listen to a lot of stuff from a lot of sources, and get the lay of the land that way.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:21 | 2168100 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  S effin  ( SHORT)!

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:24 | 2168110 surf0766
surf0766's picture

All this can kicking was to prep the other banks/ countries to lessen the effect. Greece will hurt but not as much as the second country to default. Whoever the second country turns out to be will be the oh shit moment.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:24 | 2168112 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

this is all bull shit, the market is marching torwards all time high.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:32 | 2168134 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Isn't that what they said in '29, '87, '99 and 2007?


DOW 15,000!

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:35 | 2168143 phungus_mungus
phungus_mungus's picture

Same folks who called Bear Stearns and lehman a buy just weeks beofre they nearly took down the entire banking system... 

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:36 | 2168146 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Weren't they the same ones calling the bottom in housing 500 times since 2008?

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:10 | 2168247 chump666
chump666's picture


goggle this book: "Dow, 30,000 by 2008" Why It's Different This Time - Second Printing"

F*cking hilarious.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:14 | 2168260 chump666
chump666's picture

from the Amazon review:s

"I want my money back.

At least I'm reassured by the fact that this guy's probably now living in a cardboard box under an overpass, and sleeping in a polyester leisure suit that he ripped off from the Salvation Army."

hahahahahahaahahaah oh f*ck i love it. 

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 04:16 | 2168727 Trenchf00t
Trenchf00t's picture

Nope. Most people who make predictions are usually broke as a joke or just playing with other peoples' money. The rest of us just trade without wasting time on "predictions".

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:40 | 2168157 ConspiracyTheory
ConspiracyTheory's picture

We need perma-bear to keep shorting a clearly uptrend move for the market to continue the rise. The more people short, the merrier.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:26 | 2168118 tempo
tempo's picture

The root of all economic problems is simply a worldwide declining labor wage and labor glut. The West (US/EU) pay $25/hour w benefits while China/India workers get $25/day or less w/o benefits. Foxconn workers live in 3000 room dorms, 20 per room wo cable or internet or smart phones (hell!!!). So the West buys peace w entitlements funded w deficits. Even w trillions in deficit spending EU has gone into a recession and the US has marginal growth. Imagine how profits w fall when the debt spiral slows much less stops or declines. There is no solution to the fundamental, root problems.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:47 | 2168172 sasebo
sasebo's picture

Right on ----------

Like what did the banks use to buy the Greek & other sovereiign debt with? Somebody's savings? Nope, some "money" created out of thin air. The same thing the fed bought all those MBS's & treasury's with. The same thing the us guvmunt is using to pay it's high paid dead head employees with . The same thing used to ramp the markets. Money created out of thin air. 

The only real question is how does this delusional game last.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:31 | 2168297 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

When does the game end? MIT prof's count cards and FX guys have systems, HFT bots rule the market and not one of you ultrasmart guys can gvie us any timing calls?  But of course not as each of your models needs a constant of some sort and without rule of law, man rules..  It's a pretty mess we find ourselves in.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 00:12 | 2168404 Isherwood
Isherwood's picture

Abolish minimum wage and cancel entitlements BAM! Problem solved!

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 08:47 | 2168936 NorthPole
NorthPole's picture

Of course there is a solution: war. A big one. Let that sink in for a while.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:27 | 2168120 AC_Doctor
AC_Doctor's picture

Sovereign bonds kafuckingboom, more default and bank failures double kafuckingboom and the dominos start to fall!

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:27 | 2168121 macholatte
macholatte's picture


Is anybody out there trading Credit Event Binary Options on Greece?

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:32 | 2168298 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

I'm sure I can help you.

How much would you like to 'invest'?

Are you a cop? You have to tell me, if you are.

You look like a cop. Are you a cop?

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:48 | 2168334 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Lmao ;)

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 00:05 | 2168384 macholatte
Fri, 02/17/2012 - 03:27 | 2168691 Race Car Driver
Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:28 | 2168125 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 This shit is pathetic. I'll reload on The mid 1.065 area. I'm cutting my trades and staying FLAT!

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:10 | 2168250 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i feel better, already!

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:29 | 2168126 Genzero
Genzero's picture

3/23 - the mother of all short squeeze begins.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:40 | 2168153 booboo
booboo's picture

yep, you will need a long board to ride the tidal wave of freshly minted one's and zero's unleashed upon the liliputians.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:58 | 2168215 J 457
J 457's picture

Not.  Short interest is now too low.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:49 | 2168337 ConspiracyTheory
ConspiracyTheory's picture

Wait a second. Reading ZH and the comment make me believe everyone in the world shorts, or is this a minority view?

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:37 | 2168149 max2205
max2205's picture

Seems we are all BoG'd down......

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:38 | 2168151 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Quiet Time. Look @ CFD.s

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 02:46 | 2168652 OldPhart
Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:40 | 2168158 navy62802
navy62802's picture

Ah, the Swiss. Being so defferent. Why don't they just come out and say it? They think that bailing out Greece is the dumbest fucking plan anyone has ever thought of. I mean it's plainly obvious in what was written above. Why don't they just sack up and say it?

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:21 | 2168280 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Because then they would REALLY have problems keeping the CHF down.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:40 | 2168159 Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

The World is not underestimating the grand fallout of Self-Absorbed leadership,

the only reason being that The World has not even considered it.

Too much trust and too much ignorance groomed the field for the Antisocial minds who invariably weasel-and-rise to the top.

The saturation point happened a while ago, and now there are no surprises, anywhere.

Flailing around in this pathetic state of turmoil, we (still) discount the simple.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:43 | 2168167 Dorky
Dorky's picture

Buy, buy, buy.

Don't you sell.

Or you'll regret.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:45 | 2168173 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

NY Composite Advance/Decline line still going up faster than the index itself.$NYUD&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p70273094322&a=122406050

Breadth is improving, not getting worse.

The market is getting stronger, not weaker.

Nigel Farage will get run over by a bus just like the rest of the "experts" who failed to predict one of the strongest stock market rallies ever seen.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:51 | 2168192 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Maybe he'll get hit by a London cab.


After all, a plane crash didn't kill him.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:07 | 2168238 wretch
wretch's picture

I can't even downclick that shit.  Too funny.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:12 | 2168254 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture


Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:12 | 2168256 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I thought he was just some pro-democracy guy? Anywho technical levels in Europe have really broken down on the equity side "over there" so i'm not to constructive on pretty much anything coming out of Continental Europe at least. Still like Sweden tho and if i were over there wondering "where do a park my money" that would be it for me. That's a POLITY with some expansion potential that isn't afraid of having a King...nor of the rule of law either. Great it!
(btw the Fukushima disaster is really looking God awful. Arnie's talking "evacuations on the West Coast" bad. That would be YOUR west coast robo! Love ya man!

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:41 | 2168320 Boston
Boston's picture

The Summation Index turned....down.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:47 | 2168178 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 The Australian Dollar is gasping for breath. It's over priced, and looking for th next export. I would suggest a 95 handle and the people that mine that figure are in compliance. The Big Mac EFFECT!

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:48 | 2168180 poor fella
poor fella's picture

Well, regardless, the Mayans damn near nailed it!

The Atlanteans on Santorini gave em a heads up.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:51 | 2168195 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

You mean the Minoans?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 01:05 | 2168547 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

No, Mormons.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:47 | 2168181 booboo
booboo's picture

Be a great time to start a real shooting war with Iran too (just thinking like a criminal as there is never a good time to start a war)

Oh and if you really believe the Greeks will have elections anytime soon you can rid yourself of that crazy thought too, all there votes belong to Germany now. Repeat after me Greek friends, "Ich bin ein Berliner"

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:48 | 2168185 HD
HD's picture

Just pull the plug already.

I got shit to do.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:39 | 2168314 BeerBrewer09
BeerBrewer09's picture

Yeah, I'm sick of this shitty job I go to 40 hours a week. I'd rather shoot zombies, cut/split firewood, make/drink beer and spend time with my family.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:51 | 2168194 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

[Europonzicrats], who are likely more clueless than the average reader as to what is really going on

Was this a cheapshot at your readers, or readers of news in general?

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:55 | 2168202 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 This market IS  " VACUOUS"! No participants!

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:57 | 2168208 rosebud
rosebud's picture

enough chicken little durden  you're  becoming nothing more than a tiny whining squeak

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:10 | 2168246 wretch
wretch's picture

Let's say things go to hell in 2013.  For argument's sake.  Does that mean that everyone who saw it coming (everyone here) was a chicken little up until then?  Or does that disappear retroactively?  Do you take it back?  How does that work?

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:47 | 2168335 BeerBrewer09
BeerBrewer09's picture

You realize that your preparation put you in a good position to weather the shit survive, possibly make a profit, and to hopefully continue to live a satisfying life. Who cares what other people think now or in the future? The darwinism of it all will unfold accordingly.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:55 | 2168353 ConspiracyTheory
ConspiracyTheory's picture

Can you define what "going to hell" means? The stock market crashes 10%, is that going to hell? If the stock market retraced 5%-10% before making a new higher high, does that mean ZH and everyone here who "saw it coming" is right? How does that work?


Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:58 | 2168360 Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

"nothing more than a tiny whining squeak"

And you, dear rosebud, appear to be one who ignores that pesky little "Check Engine" light.

And you do it with such style.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:57 | 2168210 SnobGobbler
SnobGobbler's picture

does napoleon have faster messengers this time??


Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:02 | 2168227 1929agin
1929agin's picture

Heads spinning... Shampoo needed or more printing required!

Take a look at,  2 year chart or further out to 15 year type chart, weekly, monthly, your choice. Just matter of time, right shoulder drop? wave 3 of 3 for the elliott wave types...

Shampoo the Very clear " Head/Shoulder " formation,   Wilshire  5000 index, $WLSH,  ONLY the broadest measure for US equity market


$NYA, New york composite index, ONLY  2000 + stocks make up this index...      Jus sayn'....


Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:13 | 2168233 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

march 20 is the equinox, cosmic BiCheZ! 

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:14 | 2168242 Freebird
Freebird's picture

Beware CS's exposure - not so much Greece but the other PIGS & don't forget their horrendous derivatves plays. Greece = Lehmans x 10.
Goodbye Cl, you brought a few months grace ro the motheerfuckership in beefing up their awful balance sheet.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:13 | 2168249 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

"..the neverending Greek soap opera.."

fuking infinite

...feels like i was born listening to this drama and will probably be buried to the same bloody tune

..."revolving credit" indeed... call it infinite posturing bend-your-ear revolving credit drama peak political debt marathon

Someone please snuff the Greeks out and bury this total farce 600 foot under

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:16 | 2168262 chump666
chump666's picture


Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:12 | 2168255 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

But probably it is one of the smallest default in history if valued in gold. Bullish.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:18 | 2168270 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture



... rest is and will be history!

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:19 | 2168277 Freebird
Freebird's picture

The Greeks gold is good whilst...

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:25 | 2168287 DaylightWastingTime
DaylightWastingTime's picture

the greek solution katt williams style

i think germany should just preemptively leave the rest of them and go back to the deutsche mark and let the rest of them print euros to the moon.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 01:59 | 2168332 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i agree

i think

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:51 | 2168342 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Germany wields a lot of international political influence in its position. The PIIGS get "free" money indefinitely in their positions. It's basically a game of chicken between Germany and the PIIGS. I still say a smaller nation like Finland or Austria has the most to gain from an exit at this point.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:30 | 2168296 zen0
zen0's picture


Be Brave

Stay still

Wait for the Signs.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:43 | 2168327 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

High inside fastball brushback or??

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:34 | 2168300 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

Not that I posses even an iota of sympathy for them, but....can anyone imagine how utterly terrifying if not embarrassing it must be right now to be the child of a Greek politician?

There is no way on earth any of them are even remotely safe to function in open society.

Call it the "sins of the father" thing...whatever. Their life must require a baffling array of antidepressant drugs for breakfast.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:42 | 2168323 DaylightWastingTime
DaylightWastingTime's picture

the european earthquake will bring the american tsunami

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:54 | 2168351 chump666
chump666's picture

yeah, the bailout of Greece is NOT a bailout of Greece but a EZ bank re-cap, note ECB bond swaps, FED will 100% increase it's USD swaps to Europe. 

They (butnut Euro ball less a-holes) are trying to figure out a orderly default. 

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:51 | 2168344 chump666
chump666's picture

IFR and Dow wires reporting some Iran/US thing (?) No details as yet.  Strike imminent?

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:52 | 2168346 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

...Drones to go up in American skies at the same time the FBI internet kill switch is pulled and the Israeli Iran Syrian Russian Chinese American battle goes down during the EU Greece Fire? What time of year do those big quakes happen again?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 00:49 | 2168519 JTBfromtheWL
JTBfromtheWL's picture

Huge earthquakes, 7.0+ have been on a 188 day cycle. I don't know all them off the top of my head. Or the order. Christchurch fukashima chile fiji. Its very peculiar. Some say because an inbound heavy-mass object causing this. Far and near side alignments. Because it is suppose comming tword us at a very slight angle, there's the 188 days, a bit more than the 6 month, half year, the alignments. Next one is due march 20-23. Forget exact date. Look at the dates of these major quakes. 188 days I kid you not. When I was in school I was told they we're always looking for patterns. No mention of this now. We don't even use the richtor scale anymore. Its some kind of momentum scale. Again, im not sure, but I think a "ne" 5.0 is like a 7.0 from before

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 01:12 | 2168554 JTBfromtheWL
JTBfromtheWL's picture

Feb 27, 2010: chile; sept 4, 2010: christchurch; march 11, 2012 : japan; sept 15,2011 fiji. Next date is march 22 2012. If the pattern continues it will be 9.0+ on march 22! A nearside alignment or maybe just harp.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:56 | 2168356 Mr Sir
Mr Sir's picture

36 billion euros remains under the original May 2010 bailout agreement for Greece. The distribution schedule of that remaining amount does not fit the upcoming March maturity for Greece. However, why can't they change the distribution schedule? And then we can push this ordeal back to late June when Greece has exhausted all the funds under the original bailout? I mean it's not like there are any rules in Europe.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 00:07 | 2168391 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

March 20th?...23rd???...pu-shaw

On the 20th Greece will get a bridge loan to at least April 1st.  Then all losses will be pushed back one more quarter so everybody gets another quarterly bonus.





Fri, 02/17/2012 - 00:22 | 2168429 web bot
web bot's picture

Check this out...

Document exists on Wall Street for Greek default on March 23rd. Contingency plans already being put in place, currency controls, banking holiday, etc...

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 00:48 | 2168518 chump666
chump666's picture

Barclays Capital i'd lock in.


Fri, 02/17/2012 - 00:20 | 2168434 americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

Why in hell do people keep electing freaks like lard butt Merkle who nobody except a serious pervert would want to climb in bed with? Shouldn't people who we elect to 'lead' us at least be attractive as well as intelligent?  I mean, if I have to see their face and butt in front of me every day at least I would like to be able to fantasize about fucking them. Instead I get all these people who make me want to puke if I think about seeing them naked. How about we make it a law that you have to be a hottie to run for office? Is that too much to ask? No sarc.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 02:11 | 2168632 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

Yeah, screw old geezers like Ron Paul... I mean, what woman in her right mind would want to do him?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 23:10 | 2172219 PrinceDraxx
PrinceDraxx's picture

I'd think his wife might have a time or two. That's not to say she is in her right mind, of course.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 01:27 | 2168589 Troy Ounce
Troy Ounce's picture


Nothing will happen, the FED will print, swap, lease everthing they can get their hands on and leverage it 100 times.


In a fiat system a default will only accur when bankers & politicians want it to occur. For the rest there is the printing press.



Fri, 02/17/2012 - 01:33 | 2168603 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

(Reuters) - Moody's warned on Thursday it may cut the credit ratings of 17 global and 114 European financial institutions in another sign the impact of the euro zone government debt crisis is spreading throughout the global financial system.

It said among 17 banks and securities firms with global capital markets operations, it might cut the long-term credit rating of UBS, Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley by as much as three notches following the review. It said the guidance was indicative.

Among the banks that might be downgraded by two notches are Barclays, BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, Deutsche Bank, HSBC Holdings, and Goldman Sachs.

Bank of America and Nomura were included in those that might be downgraded by one notch.

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