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Credit Suisse The Sequel: "Probability Of The Largest Disorderly Default Loss In History On March 20 Has Increased"

Tyler Durden's picture





 

A week ago we presented an excerpt from Credit Suisse's most excellent piece "The Flaw" - merely the latest in one of the best overviews of the neverending Greek soap opera by William Porter. Yet every soap opera eventually ends. Although when it comes to Nielsen ratings, the denouement is usually a whimper. In the case of Greece, it will be anything but. Yet listening to the daily cacafony of din from Europe's leaders, who are likely more clueless than the average reader as to what is really going on, one may be left with the impression that there is a simple solution to the problem, and Greece may be "saved... in hours." It can't. In fact, as of today, Porter's s conclusion is: "we are left with a sense that the probability of delivering the largest default loss in history in a disorderly way on or before 20 March has increased relative to doing so in an orderly way."

As a reminder, Credit Suisse was the one smart enough bank which chose to completely ignore day to day newsflow out of Greece as it is literally noise with absolutely no signal. Wish we could say the same for FX traders. As such, CS' "view remains that, in any case, the chance of a disorderly outcome after 20 March is high, so to that extent the immediate events are not really central to our view, but of course are fascinating." Quite fascinating indeed, because they show to what extent an unravelling financial system will go to pretend that the number one unfixable problem in Europe - the lack of money good assets, available to either be sold, repoed, pledged, equitized, or otherwise monetized. As we have observed previously, at this point it doesn't matter for Greece- even if the country gets the second bailout, which will be used almost exclusively to recycle cash into the banking system, Europe will have a first lien on nearly 150% of its GDP. At that point the country is both a de facto and de jure colony of the Troika. The longer the bang, or whimper, is delayed, the fewer assets will remain in Greek possession, and the poorer the population will be for the inevitable fresh start, with or without the Euro.

So meandering regurgitations aside, because all this has been said one hundred times already, here is Credit Suisse's latest attempt at a fresh take on events.

We are cautious about reports of the exchange “running out of time”: the 20 March binding constraint is a GGB maturity. Greece is sovereign and has run out of money; it can choose the timetable. The case might be different if the maturity were an English law bond (but perhaps not much.)

 

The real issue remains the ECB’s exposure to the BoG, in our view. Protecting that (i.e., ensuring that Greece does not systematically default via introducing a new currency) becomes the bottom line, as the latest Flash explored.

 

Since our objection to ‘leaving EMU’ is that its corollary is systematic default, bank nationalization and the like, once the latter problems are a given, a situation towards which we seem to be heading rapidly in Greece, then the cost of the incremental step of introducing a new currency become less. Our view remains that the economy would subsequently euro-ize but potentially at a different cost level. The effect of the delay would have been to transfer the cost from Greek citizens (who have now moved substantial sums out of the country, providing in fact a source of subsequent BoP financing that makes the equation even more attractive) to the ECB. The core has a very serious problem and again should swerve, but the probability of a ‘crash’ is rising.

 

We remain very cautious about the long-term sustainability of the debt after restructuring, and it is just possible (not our core case) that the troika takes the rational decision that it is cheaper to let Greece default and reimburse the ECB for its approx. €30bn of GGB  losses than to pay the rising but nominally €130bn. Yet it was only on 14 February (two days before writing) that the ECB was confidently talking of distributing its GGB profits, so we are cautious about second-guessing the analytical framework being used.

 

Overall, we are left with a sense that the probability of delivering the largest default loss in history in a disorderly way on or before 20 March has increased relative to doing so in an orderly way. (Our view remains that, in any case, the chance of a disorderly outcome  after 20 March is high, so to that extent the immediate events are not really central to our view, but of course are fascinating).

 


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Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:11 | Link to Comment booboo
booboo's picture

3/23/12

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:31 | Link to Comment jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

indeed.  and why do they so strenuously avoid the orderly default?  oh that's right.  for the same reason oedipus fucked up.  hubris.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:32 | Link to Comment phungus_mungus
phungus_mungus's picture

For the love of GOD let's get this over with already.... 

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:37 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Get what over with ? Is there something going on? Did I miss something ?

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:42 | Link to Comment IndicaTive
IndicaTive's picture

Nigel Farage latest. Someone alert the media. for the threadjack

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtwWkE2rHNk

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:01 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I have a man crush on Nigel.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:25 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96j0A7IXQKo&feature=related

Nigel is a HOTTY!

I agree!

Man Crush!

we should kidnap him and bring him to America or Fight Club at the least!

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:59 | Link to Comment flacon
flacon's picture

Why default when paper is FREE?! If we had a gold standard then I could understand a default, but why risk a banking crisis when it could all be taken care of with more cotton rags - I mean more pretty holographic crisp bank notes from the ECB?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 01:29 | Link to Comment dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

I have watched many video's on youtube of Farange and am dissapointed that a mere 4000 or 3000 have watched the clip.  he's probably like Ron Paul where the msm won't give hime coverage

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 10:13 | Link to Comment chubbar
chubbar's picture

I just watched the video and YOUTUBE is reporting only 303 views. Let's fact it, YOUTUBE, GOOGLE and the rest of these mega entities have been co-opted into being yet one more arm of the gov't propaganda machine. There is no friggin way only 303 people viewed this video.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 00:47 | Link to Comment Muddy1
Muddy1's picture

Nigel is a stud.  If we had someone like him running for President, he'd win by a landslide.  What cahones!

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 06:16 | Link to Comment NorthPole
NorthPole's picture

Wake up. How are you going to win elections with all MSM ignoring you?

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:23 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

IndicaTive

Nigel Farage latest. Someone alert the media. for the threadjack

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtwWkE2rHNk

 

Great grab! Thanks for Sharing IndicaTive ! YOU! ROCK!!

 

Bring Nigel to America! PLEASE!! Pretty Please! wiff sugga on top! we will make his half toasted? toast and tea! whatever it takes! just get him here! Trade Obama or whoever the English want!

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 06:38 | Link to Comment ConfederateH
ConfederateH's picture

You guys already have Ron Paul, stop being so greedy.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 08:41 | Link to Comment StormShadow
StormShadow's picture

Yeah, I mean it's not like the citizenship requirement is a hangup anymore. Now that we have the Adobe amendment to the Constitution the whole world is eligible.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:54 | Link to Comment vh070
vh070's picture

Wonder why the Amadeus Amadeus tune starts up in my head every time I hear Puppet Papademos...

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 07:50 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

you really love this darling of the City of London?

I find it strange indeed

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:44 | Link to Comment He_Who Carried ...
He_Who Carried The Sun's picture

Nonsense!

Merkel said in 2011 that it will be in 2013
and she's had her way so far and so she will in the future...

They will let this bail-out pass and at the same time
the EU prepares the ground for the exit of Greece in 2013.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:52 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

she's had her way so far and so she will in the future

That is a logical fallacy.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:07 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

or an axiomatic assertion, depending which nipple i'm dealing with...

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:30 | Link to Comment jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

speaking of which, who is that individual below his name (which escapes me now)?  

our ace in the hole?  they really, truly, for sure and without a doubt, are insolvent.

and they are not just the greeks.  or the european banks.  or their insurers.  counterparties.  derivative customers.  ouch.  

the fed isn't able to be insolvent, or so it says.  what would you guess its net equity is now, now that they've sold off the good stuff?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 00:39 | Link to Comment HurricaneSeason
HurricaneSeason's picture

The Fed had good stuff? What was it, Afghanistan heroin? They weren't suppose to lose that until next year.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 08:15 | Link to Comment The Reich
The Reich's picture

For the sake of truth, is this an official denial?

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:16 | Link to Comment Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

@Dr. Engali

For GOD SAKES man, Whitney Houston is STILL dead!

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:40 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Shit that too?! Well get this. I was on another thread and apparently Greece is about to default ........ Any year now.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 00:01 | Link to Comment Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

LOL, good one. I get it.

Like anyone would be stupid enough to lend money to Greece.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 07:21 | Link to Comment machineh
machineh's picture

Heh-heh, Tyler said 'cacafony'! Literal translation: shit-talkin'

Morning coffee's got my guts growling, off to BoG!

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 00:16 | Link to Comment Isherwood
Isherwood's picture

Short OxyContin

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 00:16 | Link to Comment Isherwood
Isherwood's picture

Short OxyContin

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 00:25 | Link to Comment true brain
true brain's picture

For the love of Nothing let's get this over with already...

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 04:50 | Link to Comment respect the cock
respect the cock's picture

If we have a deflationary collapse does that mean the price for hookers will go down?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 07:57 | Link to Comment masterinchancery
masterinchancery's picture

"For the love of God, Montressor!" "Yes, for the love of God." The Casque of Amontillado, 1846, Edgar Allen Poe.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:01 | Link to Comment SnobGobbler
SnobGobbler's picture

this default will take till our next war....and fuck your CDS unless you are a primary dealer, they get the gold first remember...

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:44 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

 

Not hubris.

Swaps.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:12 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

It's all priced in, along with defaults of the rest of PIIGS+France+UK+US+Japan.

 

Bullish.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:23 | Link to Comment espirit
espirit's picture

What's plan "B"?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 01:17 | Link to Comment UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Panic.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:13 | Link to Comment The Man in Room Five
The Man in Room Five's picture

Why 3/23? I thought it was the 20th?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 02:25 | Link to Comment Rogue Trooper
Rogue Trooper's picture

Look, the historians after 3/23 (once we get back to having paper) will certainly question why this day and how the profit "Booboo the Wise" was albe to predict the "Great Reckoning & Subsequent Fall" with such clarity.

The people will listen to "The Sayer" tell the old fable, "Thee shall say arhhhhhh and thee shall pay homage to and worship the great "Booboo" and hope for his return for he will once more speak again, provide infinite wisdom and steadfast clarity for the 99.  The Vilage "Sayer" will then instruct the people to charnt!

"3.23 or thereabout, with QE3, it's roundabout"

"3.23 or thereabout! with QE4, it's roundabout"

"3.23 or thereabout! with QE5, it's roundabout"  etc... for a few hours

I'm so over this.... I hope we are not hearing the same shit this time next year.

 

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:22 | Link to Comment LiquidityandLunacy
LiquidityandLunacy's picture

In all seriousness, should i buy food and take out cash from my credit union in advance of this? Maybe buy more ammo?

 

 

Just asking if this might be the d-day

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 00:07 | Link to Comment Waffen
Waffen's picture

You should have done this long ago. The writing has been on the wall and to say well it hasn't happened yet so you made the right choice.

Hindsight is 20x20

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 00:43 | Link to Comment HurricaneSeason
HurricaneSeason's picture

Stock up on gasoline, I have 1250 gallons in my garage so far.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 02:12 | Link to Comment LiquidityandLunacy
LiquidityandLunacy's picture

dude i live in an apartment. If the shtf, im getting in my car and going to naples. Gimme wide open spaces and nato rounds.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 04:52 | Link to Comment respect the cock
respect the cock's picture

Um, hopefully all your shit is in a flammable liquid cabinet?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 21:03 | Link to Comment mkkby
mkkby's picture

There is no threat to the ECB.  They print money, alright?  This is a big nothing burger.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:15 | Link to Comment Caggge
Caggge's picture

A disorderly default from a disorderly economy. Just what should happen!

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:43 | Link to Comment brewing
brewing's picture

whose going to cover the cds... no one...

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:15 | Link to Comment jm
jm's picture

What I wonder is if NBG will be nationalized or recapitalized.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:16 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 This is Sean's call. Over at Forex Live. I'm calling it ) You know the #.s SEAN!   You Farm BoY!

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:16 | Link to Comment BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

3/23/12  CNBC Headline "Futures Rise on Greek Default Hopes".  You just know they are going to spin this shit as if it were somehow positive...

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:32 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

There is nothing that will tank this market. If Ben has to print enough money to buy up every company out there he will. What ever it takes to keep this market afloat.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:43 | Link to Comment BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

Wish you were wrong, but you're not.  I expect more no volume, no volatility trading in the market until it tanks again, then its print to infinity time...

 

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:56 | Link to Comment J 457
J 457's picture

Regardless of market direction, the volatility index will double within the next 30-45 days.   

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:17 | Link to Comment prains
prains's picture

Waiting for something to blow up in or around Iran very shortly otherwise a Kardascian may have an accident

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 06:32 | Link to Comment NorthPole
NorthPole's picture

I am hearing that Iran, after a decade spent developing their nuclear program and trying to build DaBomb, just now when they are fully aware USA is on the verge of attack, simply couldn't resist the urge to give The Great Satan a perfect excuse to go ahead. So they decided to kill a random Israeli diplomat or two. MSM says they have sent a bunch of nincompoops to Thailand who were going around blowing bombs in their own house, throwing granades at taxi drivers and at themselves blowing their own legs off in the process. Thank God all were quickly caught and confessed on the very same day.

 

How absurd a lie can you swallow? Open wide!

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 07:39 | Link to Comment Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

This is the video of the Thai bomber without legs - warning extremely NSFW / NSFL

You will note the location of his body... it's a bus stop, he didn't make anywhere sensitive, and his bag is intact (and a random pair of trousers are in a tree). Suicide bombers usually detonate around the chest / in the bag, for reference.

Guess he must have been one of those shoe bombers....

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:20 | Link to Comment Long-John-Silver
Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:35 | Link to Comment UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Get all your fireworks well in advance of July 4th....

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:19 | Link to Comment Tsunami Wave
Tsunami Wave's picture

Largest default for now. Then comes Italy, Spain, etc.. right up to the U.S.A.?

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:21 | Link to Comment Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

The race to the bottom will result with everyone at the bottom.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:09 | Link to Comment erg
erg's picture

The lowest common denominator reigns supreme.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 00:01 | Link to Comment vh070
vh070's picture

I'm with Farage, if Italy (TBTF) goes so do the rest.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:24 | Link to Comment UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Like your moniker, the wave will radiate from the epicenter.

I've heard that when the Euro goes tits up, you've got 2 weeks to get what you need and into hard assets.  If you're lucky.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:18 | Link to Comment Waffen
Waffen's picture

You heard? Atleast inform the audience that your source is Lindsey Williams. I am not saying he is wrong, but you should be open about it.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 01:20 | Link to Comment UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

He ain't the only one saying that.

I listen to a lot of stuff from a lot of sources, and get the lay of the land that way.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:21 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  S effin  ( SHORT)!

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:24 | Link to Comment surf0766
surf0766's picture

All this can kicking was to prep the other banks/ countries to lessen the effect. Greece will hurt but not as much as the second country to default. Whoever the second country turns out to be will be the oh shit moment.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:24 | Link to Comment YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

this is all bull shit, the market is marching torwards all time high.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:32 | Link to Comment UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Isn't that what they said in '29, '87, '99 and 2007?

 

DOW 15,000!

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:35 | Link to Comment phungus_mungus
phungus_mungus's picture

Same folks who called Bear Stearns and lehman a buy just weeks beofre they nearly took down the entire banking system... 

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:36 | Link to Comment surf0766
surf0766's picture

Weren't they the same ones calling the bottom in housing 500 times since 2008?

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:10 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

lol

goggle this book: "Dow, 30,000 by 2008" Why It's Different This Time - Second Printing"

F*cking hilarious.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:14 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

from the Amazon review:s

"I want my money back.

At least I'm reassured by the fact that this guy's probably now living in a cardboard box under an overpass, and sleeping in a polyester leisure suit that he ripped off from the Salvation Army."

hahahahahahaahahaah oh f*ck i love it. 

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 04:16 | Link to Comment Trenchf00t
Trenchf00t's picture

Nope. Most people who make predictions are usually broke as a joke or just playing with other peoples' money. The rest of us just trade without wasting time on "predictions".

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:40 | Link to Comment ConspiracyTheory
ConspiracyTheory's picture

We need perma-bear to keep shorting a clearly uptrend move for the market to continue the rise. The more people short, the merrier.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:26 | Link to Comment tempo
tempo's picture

The root of all economic problems is simply a worldwide declining labor wage and labor glut. The West (US/EU) pay $25/hour w benefits while China/India workers get $25/day or less w/o benefits. Foxconn workers live in 3000 room dorms, 20 per room wo cable or internet or smart phones (hell!!!). So the West buys peace w entitlements funded w deficits. Even w trillions in deficit spending EU has gone into a recession and the US has marginal growth. Imagine how profits w fall when the debt spiral slows much less stops or declines. There is no solution to the fundamental, root problems.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:47 | Link to Comment sasebo
sasebo's picture

Right on ----------

Like what did the banks use to buy the Greek & other sovereiign debt with? Somebody's savings? Nope, some "money" created out of thin air. The same thing the fed bought all those MBS's & treasury's with. The same thing the us guvmunt is using to pay it's high paid dead head employees with . The same thing used to ramp the markets. Money created out of thin air. 

The only real question is how does this delusional game last.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:31 | Link to Comment Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

When does the game end? MIT prof's count cards and FX guys have systems, HFT bots rule the market and not one of you ultrasmart guys can gvie us any timing calls?  But of course not as each of your models needs a constant of some sort and without rule of law, man rules..  It's a pretty mess we find ourselves in.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 00:12 | Link to Comment Isherwood
Isherwood's picture

Abolish minimum wage and cancel entitlements BAM! Problem solved!

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 08:47 | Link to Comment NorthPole
NorthPole's picture

Of course there is a solution: war. A big one. Let that sink in for a while.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:27 | Link to Comment AC_Doctor
AC_Doctor's picture

Sovereign bonds kafuckingboom, more default and bank failures double kafuckingboom and the dominos start to fall!

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:27 | Link to Comment macholatte
macholatte's picture

 

Is anybody out there trading Credit Event Binary Options on Greece?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/prepare-trading-revolution-here-come-cds-retail-investors

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:32 | Link to Comment Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

I'm sure I can help you.

How much would you like to 'invest'?

Are you a cop? You have to tell me, if you are.

You look like a cop. Are you a cop?

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:48 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Lmao ;)

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 00:05 | Link to Comment macholatte
Fri, 02/17/2012 - 03:27 | Link to Comment Race Car Driver
Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:28 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 This shit is pathetic. I'll reload on The mid 1.065 area. I'm cutting my trades and staying FLAT!

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:10 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i feel better, already!

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:29 | Link to Comment Genzero
Genzero's picture

3/23 - the mother of all short squeeze begins.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:40 | Link to Comment booboo
booboo's picture

yep, you will need a long board to ride the tidal wave of freshly minted one's and zero's unleashed upon the liliputians.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:58 | Link to Comment J 457
J 457's picture

Not.  Short interest is now too low.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:49 | Link to Comment ConspiracyTheory
ConspiracyTheory's picture

Wait a second. Reading ZH and the comment make me believe everyone in the world shorts, or is this a minority view?

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:37 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

Seems we are all BoG'd down......

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:38 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Quiet Time. Look @ CFD.s

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 02:46 | Link to Comment OldPhart
Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:40 | Link to Comment navy62802
navy62802's picture

Ah, the Swiss. Being so defferent. Why don't they just come out and say it? They think that bailing out Greece is the dumbest fucking plan anyone has ever thought of. I mean it's plainly obvious in what was written above. Why don't they just sack up and say it?

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:21 | Link to Comment Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Because then they would REALLY have problems keeping the CHF down.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:40 | Link to Comment Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

The World is not underestimating the grand fallout of Self-Absorbed leadership,

the only reason being that The World has not even considered it.

Too much trust and too much ignorance groomed the field for the Antisocial minds who invariably weasel-and-rise to the top.

The saturation point happened a while ago, and now there are no surprises, anywhere.

Flailing around in this pathetic state of turmoil, we (still) discount the simple.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:43 | Link to Comment Dorky
Dorky's picture

Buy, buy, buy.

Don't you sell.

Or you'll regret.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:45 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

NY Composite Advance/Decline line still going up faster than the index itself.

 

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYUD&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p70273094322&a=122406050

Breadth is improving, not getting worse.

The market is getting stronger, not weaker.

Nigel Farage will get run over by a bus just like the rest of the "experts" who failed to predict one of the strongest stock market rallies ever seen.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:51 | Link to Comment UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Maybe he'll get hit by a London cab.

 

After all, a plane crash didn't kill him.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:07 | Link to Comment wretch
wretch's picture

I can't even downclick that shit.  Too funny.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:12 | Link to Comment TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

OH LOOK WHAT MY CAT DRAGGED IN?!?!? :)))

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:12 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I thought he was just some pro-democracy guy? Anywho technical levels in Europe have really broken down on the equity side "over there" so i'm not to constructive on pretty much anything coming out of Continental Europe at least. Still like Sweden tho and if i were over there wondering "where do a park my money" that would be it for me. That's a POLITY with some expansion potential that isn't afraid of having a King...nor of the rule of law either. Great combination...love it!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=_6AxRUe6YHI
(btw the Fukushima disaster is really looking God awful. Arnie's talking "evacuations on the West Coast" bad. That would be YOUR west coast robo! Love ya man!

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:41 | Link to Comment Boston
Boston's picture

The Summation Index turned....down.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:47 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 The Australian Dollar is gasping for breath. It's over priced, and looking for th next export. I would suggest a 95 handle and the people that mine that figure are in compliance. The Big Mac EFFECT!

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:48 | Link to Comment poor fella
poor fella's picture

Well, regardless, the Mayans damn near nailed it!

The Atlanteans on Santorini gave em a heads up.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:51 | Link to Comment UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

You mean the Minoans?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 01:05 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

No, Mormons.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:47 | Link to Comment booboo
booboo's picture

Be a great time to start a real shooting war with Iran too (just thinking like a criminal as there is never a good time to start a war)

Oh and if you really believe the Greeks will have elections anytime soon you can rid yourself of that crazy thought too, all there votes belong to Germany now. Repeat after me Greek friends, "Ich bin ein Berliner"

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:48 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

Just pull the plug already.

I got shit to do.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:39 | Link to Comment BeerBrewer09
BeerBrewer09's picture

Yeah, I'm sick of this shitty job I go to 40 hours a week. I'd rather shoot zombies, cut/split firewood, make/drink beer and spend time with my family.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:51 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

[Europonzicrats], who are likely more clueless than the average reader as to what is really going on

Was this a cheapshot at your readers, or readers of news in general?

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:55 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 This market IS  " VACUOUS"! No participants!

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:57 | Link to Comment rosebud
rosebud's picture

enough chicken little durden  you're  becoming nothing more than a tiny whining squeak

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:10 | Link to Comment wretch
wretch's picture

Let's say things go to hell in 2013.  For argument's sake.  Does that mean that everyone who saw it coming (everyone here) was a chicken little up until then?  Or does that disappear retroactively?  Do you take it back?  How does that work?

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:47 | Link to Comment BeerBrewer09
BeerBrewer09's picture

You realize that your preparation put you in a good position to weather the shit storm...to survive, possibly make a profit, and to hopefully continue to live a satisfying life. Who cares what other people think now or in the future? The darwinism of it all will unfold accordingly.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:55 | Link to Comment ConspiracyTheory
ConspiracyTheory's picture

Can you define what "going to hell" means? The stock market crashes 10%, is that going to hell? If the stock market retraced 5%-10% before making a new higher high, does that mean ZH and everyone here who "saw it coming" is right? How does that work?

 

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:58 | Link to Comment Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

"nothing more than a tiny whining squeak"

And you, dear rosebud, appear to be one who ignores that pesky little "Check Engine" light.

And you do it with such style.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 22:57 | Link to Comment SnobGobbler
SnobGobbler's picture

does napoleon have faster messengers this time??

 

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:02 | Link to Comment 1929agin
1929agin's picture

Heads spinning... Shampoo needed or more printing required!

Take a look at,  2 year chart or further out to 15 year type chart, weekly, monthly, your choice. Just matter of time, right shoulder drop? wave 3 of 3 for the elliott wave types...

Shampoo the Very clear " Head/Shoulder " formation,   Wilshire  5000 index, $WLSH,  ONLY the broadest measure for US equity market

and

$NYA, New york composite index, ONLY  2000 + stocks make up this index...      Jus sayn'....

 

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:13 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

march 20 is the equinox, cosmic BiCheZ! 

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:14 | Link to Comment Freebird
Freebird's picture

Beware CS's exposure - not so much Greece but the other PIGS & don't forget their horrendous derivatves plays. Greece = Lehmans x 10.
Goodbye Cl, you brought a few months grace ro the motheerfuckership in beefing up their awful balance sheet.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:13 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

"..the neverending Greek soap opera.."

fuking infinite

...feels like i was born listening to this drama and will probably be buried to the same bloody tune

..."revolving credit" indeed... call it infinite posturing bend-your-ear revolving credit drama peak political debt marathon

Someone please snuff the Greeks out and bury this total farce 600 foot under

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:16 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

lol

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:12 | Link to Comment Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

But probably it is one of the smallest default in history if valued in gold. Bullish.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:18 | Link to Comment TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

THE FEDsters WILL USE THIS MOMENT AFTER THE MOMENT WHEN ALL WILL BE SCARED SHITLES ....TO PRINT INSANE AMOUNTS OF WORTHLESS DOUGH SO DUMBBAMA CAN "WINN" HIS SECOND AND WHO KNOWS MAYBE NOT LAST TERM!!! AFTER ALL AFTER 22 AMENDMENTS WELL ANOTHER ONE WON'T HURT AS IN GETTING A THIRD TERM?!?!?

I SAY PHYZZZZZZ IT IZZZZ!!!

... rest is and will be history!

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:19 | Link to Comment Freebird
Freebird's picture

The Greeks gold is good whilst...

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:25 | Link to Comment DaylightWastingTime
DaylightWastingTime's picture

the greek solution katt williams style

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MlHJIOvTOY&feature=related

i think germany should just preemptively leave the rest of them and go back to the deutsche mark and let the rest of them print euros to the moon.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 01:59 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i agree

i think

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:51 | Link to Comment dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Germany wields a lot of international political influence in its position. The PIIGS get "free" money indefinitely in their positions. It's basically a game of chicken between Germany and the PIIGS. I still say a smaller nation like Finland or Austria has the most to gain from an exit at this point.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:30 | Link to Comment zen0
zen0's picture

 

Be Brave

Stay still

Wait for the Signs.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:43 | Link to Comment Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

High inside fastball brushback or??

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:34 | Link to Comment alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

Not that I posses even an iota of sympathy for them, but....can anyone imagine how utterly terrifying if not embarrassing it must be right now to be the child of a Greek politician?

There is no way on earth any of them are even remotely safe to function in open society.

Call it the "sins of the father" thing...whatever. Their life must require a baffling array of antidepressant drugs for breakfast.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:42 | Link to Comment DaylightWastingTime
DaylightWastingTime's picture

the european earthquake will bring the american tsunami

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:54 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

yeah, the bailout of Greece is NOT a bailout of Greece but a EZ bank re-cap, note ECB bond swaps, FED will 100% increase it's USD swaps to Europe. 

They (butnut Euro ball less a-holes) are trying to figure out a orderly default. 

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:51 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

IFR and Dow wires reporting some Iran/US thing (?) No details as yet.  Strike imminent?

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:52 | Link to Comment BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

...Drones to go up in American skies at the same time the FBI internet kill switch is pulled and the Israeli Iran Syrian Russian Chinese American battle goes down during the EU Greece Fire? What time of year do those big quakes happen again? 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4ybbgXc4zA&feature=BFa&list=PL2C47F7E11CA366B4&lf=rellist

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 00:49 | Link to Comment JTBfromtheWL
JTBfromtheWL's picture

Huge earthquakes, 7.0+ have been on a 188 day cycle. I don't know all them off the top of my head. Or the order. Christchurch fukashima chile fiji. Its very peculiar. Some say because an inbound heavy-mass object causing this. Far and near side alignments. Because it is suppose comming tword us at a very slight angle, there's the 188 days, a bit more than the 6 month, half year, the alignments. Next one is due march 20-23. Forget exact date. Look at the dates of these major quakes. 188 days I kid you not. When I was in school I was told they we're always looking for patterns. No mention of this now. We don't even use the richtor scale anymore. Its some kind of momentum scale. Again, im not sure, but I think a "ne" 5.0 is like a 7.0 from before

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 01:12 | Link to Comment JTBfromtheWL
JTBfromtheWL's picture

Feb 27, 2010: chile; sept 4, 2010: christchurch; march 11, 2012 : japan; sept 15,2011 fiji. Next date is march 22 2012. If the pattern continues it will be 9.0+ on march 22! A nearside alignment or maybe just harp.

Thu, 02/16/2012 - 23:56 | Link to Comment Mr Sir
Mr Sir's picture

36 billion euros remains under the original May 2010 bailout agreement for Greece. The distribution schedule of that remaining amount does not fit the upcoming March maturity for Greece. However, why can't they change the distribution schedule? And then we can push this ordeal back to late June when Greece has exhausted all the funds under the original bailout? I mean it's not like there are any rules in Europe.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 00:07 | Link to Comment vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

March 20th?...23rd???...pu-shaw

On the 20th Greece will get a bridge loan to at least April 1st.  Then all losses will be pushed back one more quarter so everybody gets another quarterly bonus.

 

Wash

Rinse

Repeat

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 00:22 | Link to Comment web bot
web bot's picture

Check this out...

Document exists on Wall Street for Greek default on March 23rd. Contingency plans already being put in place, currency controls, banking holiday, etc...

http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/breaking-report-insider-documents-...

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 00:48 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

Barclays Capital i'd lock in.

 

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 00:20 | Link to Comment americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

Why in hell do people keep electing freaks like lard butt Merkle who nobody except a serious pervert would want to climb in bed with? Shouldn't people who we elect to 'lead' us at least be attractive as well as intelligent?  I mean, if I have to see their face and butt in front of me every day at least I would like to be able to fantasize about fucking them. Instead I get all these people who make me want to puke if I think about seeing them naked. How about we make it a law that you have to be a hottie to run for office? Is that too much to ask? No sarc.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 02:11 | Link to Comment The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

Yeah, screw old geezers like Ron Paul... I mean, what woman in her right mind would want to do him?

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 23:10 | Link to Comment PrinceDraxx
PrinceDraxx's picture

I'd think his wife might have a time or two. That's not to say she is in her right mind, of course.

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 01:27 | Link to Comment Troy Ounce
Troy Ounce's picture

 

Nothing will happen, the FED will print, swap, lease everthing they can get their hands on and leverage it 100 times.

 

In a fiat system a default will only accur when bankers & politicians want it to occur. For the rest there is the printing press.

 

 

Fri, 02/17/2012 - 01:33 | Link to Comment jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

(Reuters) - Moody's warned on Thursday it may cut the credit ratings of 17 global and 114 European financial institutions in another sign the impact of the euro zone government debt crisis is spreading throughout the global financial system.

It said among 17 banks and securities firms with global capital markets operations, it might cut the long-term credit rating of UBS, Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley by as much as three notches following the review. It said the guidance was indicative.

Among the banks that might be downgraded by two notches are Barclays, BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, Deutsche Bank, HSBC Holdings, and Goldman Sachs.

Bank of America and Nomura were included in those that might be downgraded by one notch.

http://yhoo.it/xLl9KY

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